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There’s a Reason That Netflix’s Ad Business Has Underwhelmed
Somewhat lost in the company’s slew of firings and engagement warnings over the past few weeks was the fact that Netflix is scaling back its ad forecast for 2026 from $3 billion to $2.7 billion. That’s despite the fact that: CTV is growing by 14-15% this year This year saw a monster upfront Netflix is the biggest streamer out there this side of YouTube, and was the platform that for years brands were supposedly dying to be a part of In other words, that’s an alarming pull-back from Netflix. A Wall Street analyst I spoke with last week was blunt, calling Netflix’s ad business “disappointing.” To me, a red flag on the ad front is that Netflix has never revealed how many ad-supported subscribers it has. Because if I know anything about how big companies work, if they have a positive number that makes them look really good - they tend to share it. (How many subs does go90 have right now? We’re not saying just yet. How are ads going on ChatGPT? Oh, a billion run rate - I see). Yes, to date Netflix has shared some fuzzy ad numbers, such as the idea that the company’s ad tier ‘reaches’ 250 million users globally.’ Here’s why that figure gives me pause: a)they lead with global, and b) they don’t explain how they are calculated. (Are they based on average people in each room? Surveys of some kind?). Regardless, some insiders say that Netflix’s ad tier is scaling nicely - others not so much. Either way, one of Netflix’s biggest challenge on the ad front appears to have been its starting point. Remember, when Netflix launched ads in 2022, it had 73 million subs in the US and Canada. That’s 73 million people who were used to Netflix with zero ads. And when the ad product rolled out, the company clearly was going after new users - a limited pool of potential subscribers by default. That focus seems to have changed over time, as Netflix has tried to convert longtime subscribers to the ad tier. Historically Netflix subscribers are very sticky. But is the company’s low churn a problem? Not necessarily, according to Antenna data. Rather, Netflix’s consumer loyalty is a bit of a double-edged sword. “Netflix is the one streamer which actually has seen substantial “trade downs” but has much lower ‘win backs,’ said Antenna founder Jonathan Carson (win-backs being people who were on the ad-free plan, cancelled, then rejoined on the ad plan). “Netflix has lower churn and so has less opportunity to win back old subs with a lower cost plan option.” This all might explain why Netflix has been so slow to roll out all of these table stakes targeting options until just this week. It likely didn’t have enough users to carve up into various targets. etc. However, what really hit Netflix’s ad business was Amazon’s move a few years ago to turn on advertising for Prime Video by default. Suddenly the market was awash in premium inventory, and Netflix was playing catch-up on multiple fronts. Thus, the streaming giant appears to still be figuring out if if wants lead in ‘programmatic TV,’ or premium ‘upfront’ TV sales. “The CTV market now sorts into three businesses, and Netflix is not the leader of any of them,” wrote analyst Jack Myers. Ouch. So how does Netflix ratchet up its ads business? Get the next NFL package You’re gonna have to wait until 2030 unless one of the bigger media companies like Skydance opts out, but the easiest (not cheapest) way for Netflix to become a huge TV ads contender is to get one of the regular NFL packages, ideally Sunday afternoons. That way it can sell ads to its whole U.S. subs base overnight. Go FAST This one is risky, because to program a compelling FAST channel, you’d likely have to take some older Netflix exclusive shows and make them available for free to non-subscribers. But FASTs, for better or worse, are ad-inventory machines. Go full UGC I’m not sure I see this happening. There is something already off about Netflix carrying podcasts and shows for creators. The experience sticks out in what is such a produced, and generally non-communal environment. But Netflix could open up its platform by allowing creators to upload videos without having to be approved by the service. But that opens a whole other can of worms (policing brand safety, copyright infringement, overall quality). Make a huge RMN Deal I was going to suggest something crazy, such as ‘instead of buying Warner Brothers, Netflix should buy Target. But the company doesn’t want to be in the brick and mortar business. Yet for Netflix’s ad business to compete in an Amazon world, it needs to be able to connect ad exposures to shopping. What if, instead of letting Amazon target Netflix viewers with its DSP, Netflix inked a deal with Target, or even took control of Roundel, and created its version of the Amazon full-funnel for brands? Price us out. I hope they don’t do this, but Netflix’s price increases - while significant - haven’t been enough to push long-term customers out of the ad-free tier. But if they made those prices so prohibitive, it could push large swaths of consumers to trade down. Then again, that could also dent engagement - as binging becomes much less appealing once you bring ads into the equation. Or, they could just launch a bunch of hit shows and maybe everyone will quickly forget all this angst. More from Amazon unBoxed A few weeks ago, I recorded two podcasts live at Amazon’s unBoxed event in San Francisco. I was able to go really deep with several brand partners about how Amazon’s various data and ad products work - particularly the under appreciated Amazon Marketing Cloud. First, I talked with Laura Abadias Velilla, of the Amazon specialty agency Amerge, along with Amazon’s own Charlotte Maines, Vice President, Devices Content & Advertising, about how the two partners helped a very specific printer company Epson launch into a brand new category - high end projectors. It’s a great example of how brands connect audience data across platforms to make budget deployment decisions. Next, I chatted with Monks VP Head of Digital Investment for North America Tom Burchill about how the agency actually brought in data from Linkedin to help target B2B customers across various Amazon properties for the brand Quicken. Check it out: Check these out, or just listen:
Three Of The Earth’s Five Mass Extinctions May Not Have Been What We Thought
While more gradual processes may reduce how dramatic these events look in hindsight, it also makes human-induced extinction stick out more severely.
Detroit councilwoman defends Kercheval business review requests amid neighborhood backlash
Detroit City Councilmember Renata Miller says she's sticking up for residents scared to speak up.
Jenna Ortega on moving beyond her 'Wednesday' image and embracing optimism
If Jenna Ortega ever enthusiastically shows you a stick, there's a meaningful life philosophy behind it.
Baby manta rays stick to the shallows to avoid sharks and orca
Adults can reach 30 feet long and weigh over 4,400 pounds, but coastal areas offer the young fish space to grow.
Haverhill, Southern New Hampshire Chambers Plan Joint Business After Hours
The Greater Haverhill Chamber of Commerce is joining with the Southern New Hampshire Chamber of Commerce for Business After Hours next week at Wicked Sticky Designs. Members of the two chambers will network; get a behind-the-scenes look at Wicked Sticky Designs, producer of wide format printing, vehicle wraps, fleet graphics, banners and decals; and enjoy
1970 Chevy Camaro For Sale With 90,000 Miles Shown Packs Supercharged V8 And 5-Speed Stick
Highly modified but in excellent condition, this supercharged 1970 Camaro is being offered for sale at a price that rivals the new Mustang Dark Horse.
Trump's new pitch for Republican candidates? They're really good looking
Aesthetics have long been part of the president's measuring stick, either as a source of praise or target for ridicule.
Washington Commanders vs San Francisco 49ers: Three Stats to Know
Diving into three numbers that stick out ahead of the week six matchup between the Washington Commanders and San Francisco 49ers
Chiquita Gives Iconic Mascot a Voice in Annual Breast Health Campaign
In partnership with the American Cancer Society, the global banana brand replaces its iconic blue sticker with pink throughout October while bringing its ambassador to life for the first time.
Jenna Dewan’s fiancé shows support after Val Chmerkovskiy ‘DWTS’ controversy: ‘We got you!’
Jenna Dewan’s fiancé, stage actor Steve Kazee, is sticking up for the ‘Rookie’ star after her ‘DWTS’ partner, Val Chmerkovskiy, was benched for online comments about judge Carrie Ann Inaba.
Ty Lue Confirms Starting Center for Clippers on Opening Night
Tyronn Lue is sticking with the big man who held the job all preseason.
TV Tinsel: Television dresses up for Halloween
It’s that time of year when witches wax their broomsticks, monsters slither out from under beds, and goblins gather at midnight for a séance. Television is doing its best to
There's a crackdown on sports piracy - but is it already out of control?
The sports industry's lucrative business model is being undermined by dodgy TV sticks and illegal streaming links, writes Theo Leggett.
PSA: Apple’s official silicone iPhone Duo case will require adhesive to stick
iPhone Duo is just about a week away from launching, and now that preorders have opened, Apple’s official iPhone Duo...
Mike Macdonald sticking with Sam Darnold as Seahawks starter
Anyone clamoring for Drew Lock may have to wait for him to get another chance to play.
Apple's $79 iPhone Duo Case Sticks On With Adhesive
Apple's iPhone Duo Case uses adhesive to attach to the device, according to people who have picked one up. The case comes in two pieces and uses adhesive strips along the inside edges to attach securely to an iPhone Duo. An included insert instructs users to peel off the adhesive's protective film, put each half on the Duo, and then press down to make sure it's well-adhered. The iPhone Duo Case is made from polycarbonate and comes in Sand and Navy Blue.
Doja Cat’s Seattle arena concert was a scorching, slapstick spectacle
Doja Cat brought ‘80s excess, pop-rap and pyrotechnics to Climate Pledge Arena.
‘Thriller’ flash mob, Spooky Mad Science Expo take over Alexandria this weekend
Halloween festivities are starting to ramp up in Alexandria as October continues on. This weekend, the "Thriller" Zombie Flash Mob descends upon Old Town, retailers will host the new Sticker Treat sticker crawl, and the Spooky Mad Science Expo returns for an 11th year at Patrick Henry Recreation Center. The Ethiopian Fall Festival has also
Chamber offers business-focused voter guide for 2026 general election
Business owners wanting to know where candidates for Congress, the state Legislature and Richland City Council stand on economic issues can review the Tri-City Regional Chamber of Commerce’s online voting guide.
The science of dew: Managing guttation to fight dollar spot
Learn why rolling, poling, or syringing after mowing can disrupt this sticky, disease-friendly cycle.
John Healey vows to give ‘breathing space’ to consumers and businesses in first budget
Speaking at IMF annual meeting in Bangkok, chancellor says he will stick to fiscal rules while recognising business and living costs
What the passage of Proposition 5 would mean for recall elections
Here's a look at what would change
Ossoff again said he won’t run for president. Such denials don’t always stick.
Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Georgia) said in a debate that he has “zero interest” in running for president. Plenty of other politicians said that and ran anyway.
ON THE JOB: ‘Where Do You See Your Career or Business in 3 to 5 Years?’
“For the next three to five years, I am looking to grow Oswego County Opportunities’ support for the county’s economic development to fight poverty and take advantage of the major investments that are coming to the area.” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “I love what I’m doing. I’m trying to do this as long as they let me. It’s so exciting to walk the floors at the various factories, talk with community leaders and be part of the solutions to their business problems. As we do this work with manufacturers and community members, we are helping the next generation have these great jobs in skilled manufacturing. I’d like to have the same job title for years to come. I’ve watched the last five years with awe and it makes me proud and excited to be from Upstate New York. I want to keep being part of the conversation that, yes, we can do it in Upstate New York.” — Randy Wolken, President and CEO, Manufacturing Association of Central New York (MACNY) “I oversee the Rochester and Syracuse offices. We’re seeing continual growth as there are more and more job seekers and companies that are looking to fill positions as the economy grows. I’d like to have another Upstate New York office in our region to help promote people under me. I want to see that happen. With an increase in the job market, that is what the end goal is here for sure. We currently have offices in Rochester, Buffalo, Syracuse and Albany, among more than 300 worldwide.” — Briana Calabrese, Marketing director and vice president of finance & accounting and administrative & customer support, Robert Half Recruiters & Employment Agency, Syracuse “Hopefully, we’ll continue to grow by word of mouth. I just took over a couple of years ago. I was an employee for 27 years. Business is great and we’re up on sales from where we were last year and I’m hoping that continues to happen. I get an overwhelming response from people who say they want to support local businesses. It’s my objective when people walk out the door that they want to come back. In a small town like this, it’s crucial. I see myself in five years doing exactly what I’m doing now: sticking with it and trying to grow Fulton Screen Printing.” — Tim Stone, Owner, Fulton Screen Printing, Fulton “I am 85 years old and teach four fitness classes a week and swim four times a week. I hope to live to be 90 — if I can do that, I won’t complain. The older I get, the less afraid I am of dying. What I don’t want to do is get some sickness where I’m lingering and I’m in pain and it just goes on and on. I expect to be exercising as much as I can and I hope I will know when I need to back off to accommodate different problems I may have when I’m older. For a short time, I got up at 6 a.m. to jog for a half hour every morning. But I had to avoid dogs, so I quit jogging. I hope to be able to swim for life. When I swim for half an hour, whatever problems I have wash away. I will still be working in exercise in five years. I also write research articles. It challenges my mind. You have to challenge your mind and body and have some kind of goals and reasons to go on living. My wife died three and a half years ago, so I try to go out and do things, even though she’s no longer here.” — Fred Wilson. Certified personal trainer at Fitness After 50 and leader of senior fitness classes, Syracuse “I expect to continue working as a local financial adviser professional for the next several years. I really enjoy working with my clients and consider it a privilege to come to work every day, helping my clients reach their financial goals.” — Randy L. Zeigler, Certified financial planner practitioner, chartered financial consultant and private wealth adviser, Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC, Oswego “I see myself doing something with young people. I want to open an after-school program as a safe space for high schoolers where they can get tutored, behavioral health, get something to eat. I want to do something with policy. I have thought of doing something with neurodivergent kids where kids can run some kind of business. I want to do anything with community like therapy and psychotherapy. I want to still be able to offer those services to people. At 55, I’m not sure how much I will do. I will see what happens after graduation from Keuka College.” — Della Joyce Smith, Master’s student, Syracuse “I think the core of the gym is in personal training. I don’t see that changing. People will still need a gym and personal training will stay. There may be some loss to AI as there is in just about every industry, but there’s always been the ability to go online and get a workout. I don’t think AI will cut into business any more than the internet has. I think the class structure is shifting. Large group classes might be fading away for a while. I see more people going to specialized classes like Pilates. I wouldn’t be surprised if maybe the traditional classes like boot camps started to fade away. It’s important to adapt. Maybe someday I’ll need to get some new kinds of classes. Everything tends to go in cycles.” — Ryan Vollmer, Certified personal trainer and owner Edge Strength and Conditioning, Syracuse “I have been growing my firm at 24% a year. In five years, we may be purchasing or building a new office building to accommodate the new growth. Right now, our focus is on growth and adding team members, mostly financial advisers and administrative staff.” — Terri Krueger, Chartered financial consultant and senior financial adviser with Orla Wealth Management in Syracuse “Over the next three to five years, I see TDO continuing to experience steady, sustainable growth as new industries establish and expand their presence across Central New York. These investments will create new opportunities throughout the regional manufacturing supply chain, and TDO will continue evolving our capabilities to help both existing manufacturers and emerging industries grow, compete, and succeed.” — Jim D’Agostino, CEO and executive director Central New York TDO (Train, Develop, Optimize), Liverpool
8BitDo Ultimate 2C review: A fabulous Switch 2 controller at a fraction of the price
Hall effect sticks, haptics and extra bumpers... for how much?
Nintendo just made an unusual decision—and it's going to be good for business
As Sony moves to phase out physical game discs, Nintendo is reassuring fans that cartridges aren't going anywhere. But its commitment comes with some caveats.
ESMO 2026 Survival Guide for Advocates: Science, Spanish, Stickers and a Little Madrid Magic
ESMO 2026 Survival Guide for Advocates: Science, Spanish, Stickers and a Little Madrid Magic / cancer, ESMO, ESMO2026, Lived Experience, Lived Experience
8BitDo Launches Ultimate 3C+ Wireless Controller with Thumb Stick Tension Adjustment and Extra Buttons
8BitDo has officially launched the latest version of its Ultimate Wireless controller, the Ultimate 3C+, which is, for an intents and purposes, a more affordable version of the recently revealed special edition Ultimate 3 Wireless controllers. The Ultimate 3C comes in at a pre-order price of...
RIP, homeOS
MacRumors was first to reveal the name "HomeView" last week, after discovering a trademark filing from a secretive shell company that we correctly suspected was linked to Apple. Apple was likely behind a "homeOS" trademark filing as well, but the company ultimately decided to stick with generic "HomeView software" naming, just like it refers to the HomePod's operating system as "HomePod software".
New York Giants sticking with Bryan Hudson at center
The New York Giants intend to start Bryan Hudson at center against the New Orleans Saints in Week 6.
FEATURE | Raphaël Le Guen
Being able to seize an opportunity can sometimes change the course of a life. Or of a career, if we stick strictly to the realm of football. Ask Raphaël Le Guen (20). Promoted to the starting line-up...
Dolphins sticking with QB Malik Willis despite 0-5 start, passing game struggles: 'Malik needs to be better'
UW-River Falls to Offer Halloween Carnival and “Haunted Lab” Science Demonstrations ⋆ 715Newsroom.com
Two special Halloween-themed events are planned at the University of Wisconsin-River Falls on Tuesday, Oct. 20, including a Halloween carnival and “Haunted Labs” science demonstrations. Children in 4K through fifth grade are invited to attend the annual “Halloween in the Halls” event from 4:30 to 6:30 p.m., hosted by UWRF Residence Life. Instead of trick-or-treating through residence halls, Residence Life will host carnival activities, such as cornhole, apple bobbing, an egg walk, a bouncy house, crafts and sticker activities. The carnival will be held behind Grimm and Parker Halls, in front of Hathorn Hall and between Johnson and May Halls.
Name-calling politics birthed ‘Oxford County bear’ symbol
A writer tried to insult Maine farmers, and Democrats in the 19th century took the symbol for their own.
The Stickiness of Bonnie Blue: Online Disgust and Ahmed’s Cultural Politics of Emotions
Adult performer Bonnie Blue went viral in early 2025 after claiming to have had sex with 1,057 men in twelve hours. This article takes the online backlash against her as a case study in how disgust circulates and becomes attached to bodies. Drawing on Sara Ahmed’s (2004; 2014) accounts of affec ...
Scientists discover vanilla’s hidden healing potential
Scientists have discovered that vanillin, the compound that gives vanilla its distinctive flavor, has powerful properties that could help fight infections, reduce inflammation, and promote wound healing. The inexpensive, widely available ingredient could one day become an important component of advanced wound treatments and regenerative medicine.
The original Apple TV 4K from 2017 is now officially "vintage"
Apple changed its status in preparation for its upcoming smart home product event. The smart streaming box/stick market is a bit weird for sure. There are...
Chicago Bears to Honor Mike Ditka With Special Helmet Sticker
The Chicago Bears will honor legendary coach Mike Ditka with a special No. 89 helmet sticker against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday.
Trump sticks with tariffs even as US voters turn against them before the midterms
President Donald Trump shows no signs of budging from a trade policy that many Americans don't like as the midterm elections loom.
Trump sticks with tariffs even as US voters turn against them before the midterms
President Donald Trump shows no signs of budging from a trade policy that many Americans don't like as the midterm elections loom.
Tuipulotu is called in after Capstick ruled out
EXETER have signed No.8 Carwyn Tuipulotu for the rest of the season. The 25-year-old, who has represented Wales at Under-20 level, played in France last season for Pau and was a free agent. He has most recently been training with Dragons having previously played for Scarlets, and had a spell with Saracens in 2025. “After […] The post Tuipulotu is called in after Capstick ruled out appeared first on The Rugby Paper .
USWNT Gets a Measuring Stick Ahead of the World Cup
The USWNT is still finding its footing after falling to No. 1 Spain.
Washington’s Physicality Gap Amplified in Iowa Loss
Elijah Brown’s second-half performance struck life into the Washington offense, but it wasn’t enough to overcome the hole it dug itself against Iowa in the first half. The Huskies began the game with five straight punts. In what Jedd Fisch called a measuring stick game against the Hawkeyes, his team failed to measure up to …
Why WA high school football teams will be wearing special helmet stickers
Teams across Washington will be wearing special helmet stickers in partnership with Hilinski's Hope to raise mental health awareness.
Netflix’s Summer of Bummer
(Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a newsletter on the entertainment industry and business strategy. I write a weekly Streaming Ratings Report and a bi-weekly strategy column, along with occasional deep dives into other topics, like today’s article. Please subscribe.) Today, I’ve got a guest post from longtime friend of the newsletter, Brandon Katz. I’ve been trying to find time all summer to look at Netflix’s straight-to-streaming film slate, but between a pre-planned trip and Nielsen moving up their streaming data timeline, I’ve been swamped. So I reached out to Brandon, one of my favorite fellow analysts, to write about it. And I feel like he captured the tone and data focus of the newsletter perfectly. You can connect with Brandon on LinkedIn and Twitter. Enjoy! Don’t worry, folks. You’re in safe hands with me. To ease any anxieties about an interloper in ESG’s domain, I’ll start by stealing one of his best framing devices: headlines. Box office flops are covered in the same way the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles eye pizza: with cartoonish insatiability. I would know. I’m a former reporter who wrote nearly identical headlines: Yet, intentionally or not, streaming misses get treated with kids gloves, filtered through a rosy lens: In the last six years, U.S. streaming viewership has become nearly as transparent as the box office, but the data often arrives weeks later, in a number of less intuitive metrics, and with nary an official budget to be found. This plays into the Wall Street-whispering narratives major streamers have been cultivating for years. They get a pass in a way that theatrical studios simply don’t. Subscribe Netflix’s Summer Slate Not a single Netflix original film released between May and August this year opened above 20 million U.S. TV hours, per Nielsen. That benchmark usually serves as the EntStrategyGuy’s floor for a streaming hit on Netflix. None of these films enjoyed a hit-cementing single week of 20-plus million hours during their runs. Netflix’s two best films were true crime docs, Maternal Instinct (16.5 million hours) and The Crash (19.7 million), the best overall week for a film this summer. Great for most other streamers, but not necessarily what we’re used to seeing from Netflix. For an overly-dramatic comparison, Happy Gilmore 2 opened last summer to around 47 million hours (celebrity cameos, baby!). Zooming out, the picture looks even worse. In 2026, Netflix’s five biggest scripted summer films posted the lowest average (28.6 million hours) and median (28.8 million hours) eight-week viewership totals of the past four years. Now, it’s unrealistic and unfair to expect Netflix to deliver a _KPop Demon Hunters-_sized hit every year. But it’s also not ideal to see the size of their hits shrinking over the last few summers. Let’s quickly run through some of the notable summer misses. Jennifer Lopez and Brett Goldstein’s perfectly fine romcom, Office Romance, fell off the charts after 20 million hours in its first two weeks. Top films usually last for four-plus weeks. Starry titles ideally don’t decay that fast either. Homegrown star Millie Bobby Brown couldn’t prevent the snappy Enola Holmes franchise from diminishing returns. At 14.3 million U.S. hours, the third film posted roughly half of what the first two films did in their first two weeks. What’s on Netflix calculated that per-day global views were down nearly 60% from the second movie. The Whisper Man did okay with more than 36 million hours over its first four weeks. But I expected a little more juice from a film featuring Robert De Niro, Michelle Monaghan, and Adam Scott. Kevin Hart’s Ladies First collected just 11.2 million hours total across two weeks. That’s a big miss for one of Netflix’s go-to stars. Plopping into the same bucket are Sunny Sandler’s Don’t Say Good Luck (10.3 million in two weeks) and John Cena’s Little Brother (17.5 million). Meanwhile, English-language originals Color Book (June 19), In the Hand of Dante (June 24) and Heartstopper Forever (July 17) never sniffed Nielsen’s Top 10 at all, despite needing only 2 to 5 million hours to land in the top ten most weeks. (By my count, eleven English-language scripted original films released between May and August did chart). It’s only fair to mention that Swapped (1-May) posted nearly 42 million U.S. hours over five weeks (the longest Netflix original run this summer) and is currently their eighth most-watched English-language film ever worldwide. Remarkably Bright Creatures (37 million, 4 weeks) and Voicemails for Isabelle (27 million, 4 weeks) weren’t bombs either. Still, overall, I think it’s fair to say this was a quieter summer season than we’re used to seeing from the market-leader. You might not realize that given the language commonly used in public analysis. The Twist Despite the starkly black-and-white tone of the coverage, here’s the twist: when many box office bombs arrive on streaming, their viewership looks a whole lot like many of Netflix’s supposedly successful summer releases. Hmm, where have we heard that one before? Masters of the Universe topped out at $65 million stateside against a $170 million budget_._ I’ll admit, Skeletor ripping sleeveless curls as a gym bro and bodyslamming Adam’s co-workers was funny. But, much to the chagrin of my bank account, my laughter doesn’t launch franchises. Yet the He-Man reboot opened to 19.6 million hours (from a Wednesday five-day opening instead of just one weekend), on par with Hoppers on Disney+ (19.4 million). It put up nearly 47 million hours over its first six weeks, bigger than all of Netflix’s summer releases. Pretty darn healthy and likely to land among the 25 most-watched movies on streaming this year. Sticking with Amazon, The Sheep Detectives just barely broke even at the box office with $133 million worldwide (and only $66 million domestic). I never expected cloven-hooved, cud-chewing mammals to be able to bring me to tears. Yet that’s exactly how I found myself at the end of this surprisingly affecting movie (#NoShame). It was likely the unexpected quality in a family-friendly film that powered its streaming over-performance. Sheep Detectives delivered a solid run for Prime video netting 26.2 million hours! How about franchise IP? Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu had the lowest opening ($81 million) and lowest-grossing Disney-era live-action Star Wars film ($178 million domestic). One day before release, its Heat score (19.8%)—audiences who list their interest as a 7/7—fell behind blockbusters Wicked (21%), Superman (23%), Fantastic Four: First Steps (23%), Michael (23%), Toy Story 5 (26%) and Avatar: Fire and Ash (27%), according to Greenlight Analytics. The urgent enthusiasm just wasn’t there. On streaming, Mando opened to weeks of 12.1 million, 6.1 million and 2.7 million hours (21 million total) over its first three frames. Not the numbers Lucasfilm was hoping for nor the numbers of a streaming hit. But they’re in the same vicinity as some Netflix summer releases with $345 million at the global box office to offset a smidgen of the pain. Final Thoughts So why oh why does this nuance gap exist? Four key reasons: Data Literacy: A “$100 million opening” just makes sense. After decades of box office reporting, even casual movie fans are well-versed in the benchmarks of hits and home runs. There’s an immediate shorthand. But “16.5 million” hours doesn’t land nearly as cleanly. Despite leaps of progress, the streaming ratings era is still in its infancy compared to theatrical. The EntStrategyGuy and I met thanks to a late 2010s group chat of data nerds hungry to find a shred of certainty in nebulous streaming performance. I’m not surprised to see “No. 1 on Netflix” still getting misconstrued out in the wild. Timing: By Friday morning, we have the box office’s Thursday night previews totaled, allowing us to better project the weekend’s expectations. From there, ticket sales are reported daily. By Sunday, the film’s fate is usually finalized, at least in terms of public perception. In streaming, Nielsen recently improved its delay to…two weeks. The medium isn’t forced to contend with instant gratification as harshly. Financials: Theatrical film budgets are a mere Google away. Profit and loss is calculated in the cold and unforgiving naked light of day for all to see. But finding the vast majority of streaming exclusive movie budgets requires the forensic investigation skills of a Criminal Minds detective. Also, it’s very difficult to calculate how much revenue/value a straight-to-streaming films provides a streamer. This is why there are so few stories about streaming original movies “losing X amount of money”. On top of that, marketing budgets are far greater for theatrical movies than streaming exclusive movies, which leads to earlier and better awareness. This then translates to a wider pool of potential interest. Narrative Control: Netflix is the only major streaming service to publish weekly first-hand viewership data and annual engagement reports. Naturally, some headlines borrow their first-hand framing**.** Other streamers benefit from their comparative lack of transparency. They may occasionally announce vague performance platitudes such as Apple TV’s Mayday becoming its “biggest film debut on the platform to date over its first 18 days,” and that it ranked No. 1 with left-handed viewers in its first weekend. (Fine, I made up that second one). But, for the most part, they keep first-hand viewership shrouded in mystery to avoid bad press. Especially for outlets that demand multiple articles per day from their writers, it’s an easy (and understandable) way for some reporters to hit their daily article quota by just repeating what the streamers have told them. TL:DR version: Streaming-exclusive movies are asked to do different things than theatrical movies, but that doesn’t mean they should escape judgment. Both still need to draw enough eyeballs to justify their cost within the proper performance contexts. The more cleanly we can inject a little nuance into streaming analysis, the better we’ll understand the audience and content trends that drive this industry. And that’s what all of this is really about: knowing what audiences actually want! Brandon Katz is the Director of Insights & Content Strategy at Greenlight Analytics where he focuses on evaluating the ever-fluid media landscape to unearth understanding, opportunity and value. Greenlight Analytics is the entertainment intelligence consulting company redefining how Hollywood finds, understands, and activates audiences. Prior to joining Greenlight Analytics, he served as the senior entertainment industry strategist at Parrot Analytics, and as a full-time entertainment industry reporter covering the Xs and Os of Hollywood, most notably with TheWrap and the Observer.
The Science Behind Why Dietary Changes Rarely Stick
Learning new eating habits isn’t simple. Our pre-existing feelings around food—whether it’s a distaste for olives or a love of pastries—could make it harder to learn new eating habits, according to new research from Yale School of Medicine.
In brief: 'Stick' season 2 trailer and more
Bill Murray stars in the official trailer for A Course Called Ireland. The six-part documentary series premieres on Paramount+ on Oct. 25. The show follows Murray and his friends as they travel across the island to explore Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland's best fairways ...The Die Hard films are getting a brand-new home media release. All five of the movies will be released on physical media in 4K Ultra HD on Dec. 1. Bruce Willis stars as John McClane in all of the Die Hard films. The original movie finds the New York City policeman taking on terrorists after he flies to Los Angeles to be with his estranged wife and two children on Christmas ... TNCMS.AdManager.render({region: 'fixed-big-ad-top-asset', slot: 1, fold: "above"}); The trailer for Stick season 2 is here. Owen Wilson stars as the talented golfer who strives for second chance in the sophomore season. Peter Dager, Timothy Olyphant, Rhea Seehorn, Marc Maron, John Higgins and Billy Zane also make up the cast of the new season. The Apple TV series premieres its first two episodes on Nov. 4. A new episode drops weekly every Wednesday that follows until the season finale airs on Dec. 30 ...Copyright © 2026, ABC Audio. All rights reserved. Thank you for reading kmaland.comAt KMA, we attempt to be accurate in our reporting. If you see a typo or mistake in a story, please contact us by emailing kmaradio@kmaland.com.
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Studying Science in an Anti-Scientific Time
This Chronicle Review Deep Cut was first published in 2025. By Julianne Werlin Thanks for reading The Chronicle Review! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Subscribe The last two decades have not been kind to science studies. Already bruised and battered by the “science wars” of the 1990s, by the 2000s sociologists of science — who had long argued that science had to be understood in its human context — were encountering the funhouse-mirror version of their own views in right-wing critiques of climate scientists. It was enough to give some prominent scholars pause. “Was I wrong to participate in the invention of this field known as science studies?” asked Bruno Latour, the most famous sociologist of science in the world, in 2003. “Should we apologize for having been wrong all along? Or should we rather bring the sword of criticism to criticism itself and do a bit of soul-searching here: What were we really after when we were so intent on showing the social construction of scientific facts?” In response, Latour proposed a change of method and attitude. Science studies, now chastened and contrite, would no longer seek to strip facts of their authority, but to enrich and enhance them. What this meant in practice was never fully clear. But his diagnosis of problems resonated, even if his solutions did not. Latour’s exercise in public hand-wringing signaled a shift in mood. By 2016, with the first election of Donald Trump, the idea that skepticism of science was a right-wing position, not a left-wing one, had become a commonplace, discussed eagerly in The New York Times. For liberals, vaccine denial during the Covid era and Trump’s second-term attacks on the funding of scientific research, covered extensively in these pages, added a new urgency to the defense of science on both practical and principled grounds. There was little appetite for a sociology or philosophy of science that emphasized the messiness and missteps of the scientific process rather than its integrity and triumphs. The distinguished historian of science Peter Dear’s new book, The World as We Know It: From Natural Philosophy to Modern Science (Princeton University Press, 2025), which seeks to tell the story of 18th- and 19th-century science for a general public, may seem comfortably remote from these bitter contests. In its 16 short chapters, Dear draws swift, sure sketches of major discoveries from Newton to Einstein, ably guiding the reader through debates on stellar nebulae, animal taxonomy, atomic chemistry, evolution, and other flashpoints in the history of science. But though a work of history, Dear’s book must still negotiate our polarized present. In a blurb on its back cover, the historian of biology Lynn K. Nyhart alludes to the “present moment, when scientific knowledge is being swamped by misinformation and its institutions are under siege.” Dear himself, in his conclusion, refers to the “yard signs” and “bumper stickers” that proclaim “Science Is Real.” One antidote to both anti-science propaganda and to reductive slogans in science’s defense is a robust history and philosophy of science: exactly what Dear’s scholarship has long offered. But his new book illustrates how difficult such work has become. Dear, an emeritus professor of history at Cornell University, is best known as a creative and philosophically minded historian of the Scientific Revolution. His edited volume The Literary Structure of Scientific Argument (1991) analyzed the rhetoric of Galileo’s thought experiments to brilliant effect. Discipline and Experience: The Mathematical Way in the Scientific Revolution (1995) was a major contribution to the analysis of scientific experiments in early modern Europe and beyond, while Revolutionizing the Sciences: European Knowledge in Transition, 1500-1700 (2001), now in its third edition, remains one of the best overviews of the profound epistemological upheavals of 16th- and 17th-century science. But Dear has also ventured into later periods. Nearly two decades ago, in The Intelligibility of Nature: How Science Makes Sense of the World (2006), he turned to the 18th and 19th centuries to sketch a history and theory of scientific knowledge. Aimed at a generalist audience, Dear’s simple prose belied serious philosophical ambitions. Science, Dear argued, has two aspects: “natural philosophy,” the quest to understand the true nature of the universe, and “instrumentality,” the applied skills and technologies that allow us to manipulate the world for human advantage. Both strands are ancient, but the innovation of the phenomenon we call “science” was to yoke them together. As Francis Bacon wrote, “Human knowledge and human power meet in one; for where the cause is not known, the effect cannot be produced,” an insight typically abridged to “knowledge is power.” Or, in Bertrand Russell’s characteristically blunt phrase, science has two functions, “1. to enable us to know things, and 2., to enable us to do things.” So far, so conventional. But Dear took issue with this familiar story in one respect. Bacon’s formula implied that theory and practice could be fused in a single method. In fact, Dear argued, the quest to understand nature and the desire to manipulate it were coupled only loosely. They could come together, but they could also pull apart. Focusing on natural philosophy, the “knowing” half of the scientific circle, he used a series of case studies from cosmology, taxonomy, chemistry, electromagnetism, and quantum theory to show how theories changed over time, in dialogue with practice, but never reducible to it. Take the case of matter, the basic substrate of the physical world. In the 18th and 19th centuries, scientists not only disagreed about what it was, but also about how well it could be known. In 1789, the chemist Antoine Lavoisier dismissed speculation about the atomic composition of chemicals as “discussions entirely of a metaphysical nature,” as he sought to orient chemistry away from philosophical abstraction and toward laboratory results. But in the 19th century, atoms returned with a vengeance in the atomic chemistry of John Dalton, who wanted to explain the underlying structure of nature. It was not just that Dalton and Lavoisier had a different set of experimental results, or even a different theory, Dear showed. What counted as an explanation had changed. In arguing that scientific theories depended on their intelligibility to human beings with complex arrays of beliefs and commitments, Dear was in sympathy with science studies. Key figures such as the sociologist Steven Shapin emphasized the importance of psychological mechanisms like trust in the formation and acceptance of scientific ideas. But in focusing on the scientific pursuit of knowledge, not its politics or economics, Dear resisted the more cynical perspective of some of his colleagues. The Intelligibility of Nature strikes a very different note than Shapin’s collection of a few years later, Never Pure: Historical Studies of Science as If It Was Produced by People With Bodies, Situated in Time, Space, Culture, and Society, and Struggling for Credibility and Authority (2010), to name just one example. Walking a very fine line, Dear depicted science as driven at once by complex social dynamics and by the intellectual power of real discoveries. It was a testament not only to his own acumen but also to the vitality of the field that he was able to do so. Nearly two decades later, The World as We Know It returns to the questions broached in The Intelligibility of Nature. Like Dear’s earlier study, it begins with the Newtonian cosmos and ends with debates between Einstein and Bohr on quantum physics. Beyond its terminal figures, many of the same characters appear in both studies, including the naturalists John Ray and the Comte de Buffon; the chemists Étienne François Geoffroy, Antoine Lavoisier, and John Dalton; as well as Charles Darwin and Michael Faraday, among others. Its subject is nearly identical: As in The Intelligibility of Nature, The World as We Know It considers natural philosophy as opposed to instrumentality, here defined as the “desire to create a picture of what the world is really like — the world as God knows it — rather than simply having instrumental or operational control over it.” The two books also overlap in insights — and sometimes even in language. The reader who has learned in The Intelligibility of Nature that Buffon’s method of classifying animals “reflected his belief in the importance of the senses and empiricism in learning about nature (a doctrine associated with Newton and the philosopher John Locke)” will experience a sense of déjà vu on reading, in The World as We Know It, that the classification “reflects Buffon’s commitment to the epistemological stance of Newton and his philosophical underlaborer John Locke, who stressed the role of the senses in creating natural knowledge.” Later in the passage, we read that, “because of its stress on understanding the ways of life of animals in their environments, Buffon’s approach could almost be labeled (anachronistically) as ‘ecological.’” And again, “an anachronistic way of putting it would be to say that Buffon recommends an ecological mode of understanding.” Likewise, in The Intelligibility of Nature we read of Dalton that he was initially drawn to meteorology, and that: He did a bit of experimental work on these things, especially having to do with the water-holding capacity of gases, but his real interest lay in understanding what, at an underlying natural-philosophical level, was really going on physically.” Whereas, in The World as We Know It: He did experimental work on these things, especially concerning the water-holding capacity of gases — although not at a very refined level quantitatively — but he was continually trying to develop a theoretical conception of what was happening physically. The final full chapter of each book closes on the same resigned note. Intelligibility: These days, most serious work on the natural philosophical underpinnings and implications of quantum mechanics is performed not by physicists but by philosophers of science. Among scientific practitioners themselves, Bohr’s attempt to use instrumentality as sufficient grounds for a respectable science has met with a high degree of success. And again, in The World as We Know It: Bohr’s and Einstein’s concerns are now questions that are mostly discussed by philosophers of science rather than by physicists themselves. The marginalization of these sorts of questions amounts to the demise of natural philosophy, at least in physics, in the 20th century. Quantum mechanics “works,” and that’s good enough for most scientists who encounter it. Examples could be multiplied. When handling the same subject matter, some echoes are inevitable. Scholars should not feel that because they have written “Isaac Newton died in 1727” in one book, in the next they must describe him as perishing, expiring, or meeting his maker. But the repetitions of language and arguments (not to mention six reproduced images) threaded throughout The World as We Know It are more extensive than that. They should have been caught by Princeton University Press or its reviewers, and revised. Because the two books have so much in common, it is easy to see where they diverge. The World as We Know It is a less theoretical work than its predecessor. The sociology of knowledge that organized The Intelligibility of Nature has been reduced in scale and folded into readings and examples. The taut interplay between history and theory, which gave the earlier study so much interest, is there, but it is subtle. In the earlier book, the case studies demonstrated theoretical claims about the character and development of science. In the later work, each narrative of discovery is an end in itself. Insights emerge from the history, but they do not control the organization of the study. With the theory muted, it can be hard to understand the logic uniting Dear’s sprawling history of more than two centuries of scientific knowledge. The 16 brisk chapters cover an enormous amount of material. But the closer the volume edges to comprehensiveness, the more obvious the missing elements become. A chapter on “Institutions and Pedagogy,” describing the birth of the research university, illustrates the problem. Inserted roughly halfway through the book, the unnumbered chapter is designed as an “entr’acte,” in acknowledgement that it does not fit the study’s organization around scientific discoveries. Yet as Dear is well aware, no general history of the development of modern science can bracket its 19th-century institutionalization and professionalization. It was the 19th-century university, after all, that gave us the “scientist,” a term coined by the Cambridge philosopher William Whewell. Dear’s history of scientific discoveries implies a wider social and institutional history, but it remains largely subterranean, only occasionally extruded under the pressure of the narrative. It must be said that the balance is not all on the side of the earlier study. There are some advantages to the more historical, less theoretical organization of The World as We Know It. Dear’s accounts of paradigm shifts are remarkably lucid, no small accomplishment given that they span fields and centuries. He makes excellent use of the wealth of new scholarship on Darwin and his influences, to which he has himself contributed. It is satisfying to see puzzle pieces from Buffon’s natural history, Georges Cuvier’s animal taxonomy, Thomas Robert Malthus’s demography, and Charles Lyell’s geology recombined seamlessly in the Darwinian jigsaw. Likewise, Dear’s discussion of stellar nebulae, divided between chapters two and 15, shows vividly how Newton, Kant, Herschel, and Hubble reimagined insights and observations as they sought to discover whether the diffuse light that filtered through early telescopes was a glowing, gaseous substance or discrete but distant stars. Yet despite such pleasures, the book remains a more modest work than The Intelligibility of Nature. Dear has clearly not changed his views about the history of science. But in the two decades that have elapsed, the discipline and the world around it have changed, making it harder to write a sociologically and philosophically ambitious history of science for the general reader. That is a shame, because in the age of Silicon Valley and biotechnology, both the reciprocity and the tensions Dear identified between the epistemological and instrumental ambitions of science are more evident than ever. In recent years, some of the most exciting new books on the history of science in early modernity have focused precisely on this pressure point. Important studies such as Pamela H. Smith’s From Lived Experience to the Written Word (2022), James Poskett’s Horizons: The Global Origins of Modern Science (2022), and Vera Keller’s The Interlopers: Early Stuart Projects and the Undisciplining of Knowledge (2023) all shed new light on how early modern science negotiated the relationship between its instrumental and epistemological ambitions, or in Russell’s phrase, knowing and doing. There is every opportunity for a philosophically informed approach to draw new insights from this wealth of material. Dear, unfortunately, has not done so in The World as We Know It. But for future scholars of the history of science, his body of work over nearly four decades may provide just the model. Julianne Werlin is an associate professor of English at Duke University. Thanks for reading The Chronicle Review! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Subscribe
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Good science requires much more than evidence
Empiricists believe that scientific theories are true only if they make correct empirical predictions: if we can't verify these predictions, then there is no reason to expect that they tell us anything about reality. However, Professor of Philosophy at King's College David Kyle Johnson argues that this is mistaken. In response to Bas van Fraassen, who has written on this subject for the IAI, he argues that we have many reasons for believing a theory to be true, such as it being parsimonious and having large scope — qualities which have been used throughout the history of science as criteria for judging theories. In 2024, Princeton philosopher Bas van Fraassen wrote a short article for IAI News entitled “Science Does not Describe Reality: The Limits and Benefits of Explanation.” At the time, I was working on two projects (a science book and a Great Course) that, when completed, would (among other things) defend science’s ability to describe reality. I wanted to write a response to van Fraassen, but the projects demanded too much of my attention. But now that those projects are complete, I am in a position to explain the objections to van Fraassen’s thesis. Summarizing van Fraassen’s argumentIn a nutshell, his argument is this: What scientists do is make predictions based on theories and then invite others to test to see whether those predictions are borne out. “If theory T is right, result R should happen in experimental condition C.” Many think that running an experiment that shows that R happens in condition C is proof that theory T is true (and should be believed). But, van Fraassen argues, that R happened in condition C is only a reason to think that R happens in condition C. That’s the only observable, or empirical, result we can actually see, so that is all that we are really justified in believing. (The underlying theory that made that prediction still may or may not be true.) That is why he calls those who accept his position “empiricists.”Before I explain what is wrong with this position, let me explain what it gets right. What van Fraassen Gets RightFirst, a theory correctly predicting the results of an experiment is not, strictly speaking, “proof” that the theory is correct. The basic line of reasoning is this:If the theory T is true, result R should happen. Result R did happen. Thus, theory T is true.In other words:“If T then R. R. Thus, T.”This is a deductively invalid, fallacious mode of reasoning, called “affirming the consequent.” Those premises do not guarantee that the conclusion follows. “If I am in Pennsylvania, then I am in the USA. I am in the USA. Thus, I am in Pennsylvania.” Clearly that argument doesn’t guarantee its conclusion; neither does the above argument.However, science is not a deductive method of reasoning; it is an inductive one. And inductive arguments merely try to raise the probability of their conclusion, not “prove” them for certain. Thus, the fact that an experimental result doesn’t prove a theory is true is irrelevant; it’s not supposed to. That is not what scientific reasoning is about.___If the hypothesis that something exists clearly provides the best explanation for what we can observe, then the belief that it exists is what is rational.___Second, it’s also true that a single experimental result doesn’t provide enough justification to believe that a theory is true. Scientists do not come to a consensus about whether a theory is true by looking at a single experiment; they look at all the evidence to determine where the preponderance of evidence points. The mere fact that I am in the USA raises the probability that I am in Pennsylvania, but not nearly enough to conclude that I am in Pennsylvania. However, if I am also regularly encountering people wearing Eagles and Phillies hats and seeing advertisements for Founding Father tours, I probably am. In the same way, a theory successfully predicting the outcome of one experiment is not enough to conclude that it is true; but if a theory makes a wide variety of predictions that are all vindicated by multiple experiments, performed by many different groups and people, all actively trying to prove the theory false (which is what good scientific experiments are designed to do)—that is a good reason to conclude that the theory is true. In other words, if you repeatedly try to prove something false but can’t, that is a very good indication that it isn’t. The problem of underdeterminationIn reply, those whom van Fraassen calls “empiricists” often point to the “problem of underdetermination.” For any given theory that makes successful predictions about what happens in experimental conditions, there are countless other possible theories that make exactly the same predictions—and since they do, the experimental evidence in question is just as much reason to accept any of those theories as it is to accept our original one. Thus, the argument goes, we have no way of knowing whether our original theory is true, or one of the other “predictively equivalent” theories is true. SUGGESTED VIEWING How Occam's Razor changed the world With Johnjoe McFadden As an example of underdetermination, philosophers often offer this example. The evidence of fossils seems to provide reason to conclude that the universe is quite old; ancient fossils are what the “ancient universe” hypothesis predicts. But it’s also possible that God created an ancient-looking universe 200 years ago, complete with a “fake” fossil record for us to find, to make it look old. The existence of fossils is what that theory predicts too. So, the argument goes, the fossil record can’t be used as evidence that the universe is ancient; the fossil record supports the “200-year-old ancient-looking universe” theory just as much. The problem of underdetermination points out that, for any theory with supporting evidence, we could invent another completely different theory that predicts exactly the same evidence, and thus undermine that evidence’s ability to support the original theory.But this “argument from underdetermination” betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of what scientific reasoning is and how it works. To explain, let me use another rather strange (but very real and commonly discussed) philosophical thought experiment called “The Grue Problem.” The “Grue” ProblemSuppose I want to know what color emeralds are, so I observe a few, see that they all appear green, and form the theory that “all emeralds are green.” I thus predict that the next 100 emeralds I find will also appear to be green. And let’s say that happens, and so I thus conclude that my theory that all emeralds are green is true. Now, one might rightly point out that I don’t know for sure that all emeralds are green—I have not seen them all. Maybe some I haven’t found yet are blue. Fair enough. After all, we used to think that all swans were white, until we found some black ones. But let’s say that I go on a quest and collect every emerald in the universe—and, for the sake of the argument, let’s say I can do this, and can even know that I have every one of them. So, I collect them all, look at them all, and verify that they all appear green. Can’t I now rightly conclude that all emeralds are green?Inspired by the problem of underdetermination, a friend might argue that I cannot.Sure, they all appear green now—but there could be another kind of color called “grue.” Something is grue if it is green up to a certain point in time, but then spontaneously turns blue. And there could be an infinite number of “shades” of grue. Something that is one shade of grue will turn blue at noon today, but something that is another shade of grue will turn blue at noon tomorrow, etc. So yes, the emeralds appear green now; and since they haven’t turned blue yet, they are not some “past” shade of grue. But they might be some “future” shade of grue (e.g., they may turn blue at noon tomorrow). And since all future shades of grue are consistent with “being green up to this point in time,” the evidence you have is completely consistent with the notion that all emeralds are some future shade of grue, rather than green. Indeed, that they would appear green until now is what the “some future shade of grue” hypothesis predicts. So, we have just as much reason to conclude that all emeralds are some shade of grue as we do to conclude that they are green.You’re probably thinking “It’s not equally possible that the emeralds are grue; they are obviously green.” You are right! But explaining why your instinctive reaction to my friend’s argument is correct will help inform why van Fraassen’s “empiricist” is wrong and science actually does describe reality.The main mistake my friend makes is in thinking that the “empirical evidence” (of all the emeralds appearing green) is (or even should be) all I am using to draw the conclusion that all emeralds are green. It is not. I am also considering known facts about how colors typically work; things don’t usually change color, and when they do, they don’t do so suddenly, without cause, and all at once. So, even though the simple evidence of the emeralds all appearing green up to this point is consistent with them being some future shade of grue—that is even what the grue hypothesis “predicts”—it is still exceedingly unlikely that they are. The hypothesis that they are green is much more likely. Understanding science refutes the problem of underdetermination The misunderstanding about science that the “empiricist” pointing to “the problem of underdetermination” makes is similar to the one that my friend made. Science is not just about considering experimental evidence; in fact, it’s not even just about considering empirical evidence. As Ernan McMullin and many other philosophers of science have pointed out, the inference that makes science is “inference to the best explanation” (sometimes called “abduction” or “retroduction” by McMullin). While, depending on the circumstances, scientists use many different kinds of reasoning, science as a whole is, simply put, the process of considering multiple competing explanations and comparing them to certain criteria—explanatory criteria (the kinds of things explanations must be and do, by definition, to be a good explanation)—to see which explanation is the best.And these criteria do not deal only with empirical results. Yes, successful predictions raise the probability of a hypothesis, but it’s also the case that the more new assumptions a theory makes, the less likely it is to be true; every new assumption presents an opportunity for the theory to be false. (The fewer assumptions a theory makes, the simpler or “more parsimonious” it is said to be.) Likewise, the more existing evidence a theory contradicts, the less likely it is, because in order for a theory to be true, every piece of evidence it contradicts has to be somehow faulty. (The fewer established theories a new theory contradicts, the more “conservative” it is said to be.) And, obviously, the more something explains, the better explanation it is. (This is called having “scope.”) If a theory raises unanswerable questions, it’s not expanding our understanding, and thus is not wide-scoping. Scientists consider all these things when deciding which theory to accept, because the theory that adheres best to these explanatory criteria is most likely to be true.___the mere fact that a theory’s predictive success is why it “sticks around” or “becomes accepted” in the scientific community is not a reason to be skeptical about its truth.___The reason the grue hypothesis is no good is because it invents an entirely new kind of color—not just a new shade, but an entirely different category of color (a different way colors work)—and thus is not parsimonious. It raises unanswerable questions about how and why emeralds would just spontaneously change from green to blue (and thus does not have wide scope). And it contradicts what is already well established about how color works (and thus is unconservative).The theories that the problem of underdetermination points to do the same thing. Yes, the theory that God created an “ancient-looking universe” (complete with an ancient-looking fossil record) two hundred years ago is also consistent with the empirical evidence (of a fossil record) that presently exists; but that theory is monumentally unparsimonious (it requires many extra assumptions about infinite entities) and not wide-scoping (it raises unanswerable questions about why God would do such a thing). So, I can rationally conclude that it is false.Indeed, the history of science includes many examples of theories that were rejected because they lacked parsimony and/or scope, even before their falsity (and the truth of their competing theory) was confirmed by observation. As I point out in my book, geocentrism was rejected by the scientific community because it lacked parsimony, almost 200 years before the observation of parallax confirmed that the Earth moves around the sun. And the continuum theory of matter was completely rejected by 1860, because it couldn’t explain chemical reactions or organize matter into a periodic table, even though the experiments that eventually confirmed atomic theory weren’t even proposed until the 1870s. Solving the best of a bad lot problemIn response, the “empiricists” are likely to object, this time pointing to the “best of a bad lot” problem. “We have no reason to conclude that an explanation that has been shown to be better than others is true because we have no guarantee that the true theory was among those that we were considering.” If you have a “lot” (a collection) of poor explanations, even the best one is not true.The responses to this problem, however, are numerous. Peter Lipton argues that the set of hypotheses that scientists consider are not just randomly selected and thus unlikely to contain a theory that is true; they use existing knowledge to home in on what is most likely to be true. A doctor trying to explain abdominal pain is not going to bother wondering whether demons are causing it; they are going to stick with things like appendicitis and kidney stones, because they are most likely. Further, despite its name, inference to the best explanation is not just the process of comparing hypotheses and accepting the best one; we also want one that is a good explanation in its own right. If it’s not, we are going to keep looking until we find an explanation that is. And while that process does not guarantee that we will come across the exact truth, it’s very likely that the theory that emerges as the best will be at least approximately true, and thus we will be justified in believing it. And lastly, as I point out in my book, although many theories not based in scientific evidence (like geocentrism and continuum theory) have been completely overturned, science almost always progresses by the refinement of scientifically established theories—not their replacement. (Although our sun is not the center of the universe, heliocentrism was our first step in understanding the Earth’s true place in the universe.) So even if a theory we accept today may not be completely right, accepting it is a step on the journey toward the complete truth. The example of atomic theoryNow, it’s worth pointing out that most empiricists are not skeptical of all scientific theories; they are only skeptical of the ones that hypothesize the existence of “unobservables.” It’s not like they think that round Earth, heliocentrism, and germ theory are just useful (but untrue) “instruments” for making predictions about how to most efficiently navigate the seas, predict planetary motion, and treat diseases. They admit that the Earth actually is round, that the planets revolve around the sun, and that germs exist and cause disease. These facts and entities can be observed; the theories that suggest they exist are true. It’s only when theories start hypothesizing the existence of unobservables—like electrons, or quantum fields—that can’t be observed directly, that we should start doubting the theories’ truth. And to be fair to van Fraassen, in this published work, he doesn’t really say that we should doubt the truth of such theories. Only that scientific reasoning does not rationally force us to accept them as true. Skepticism, or agnosticism, he argues, is warranted. SUGGESTED READING Science is based in metaphor By Andrew Reynolds But the history of atomic theory throws a monkey wrench into that argument. Atoms used to be unobservable; again, scientists first accepted the theory that they exist because it had such grandiose explanatory power. But then atoms were seen with electron microscopes. They thus moved into the category of the observable. But this didn’t substantially change anything about what scientists were justified in believing; it certainly didn’t change any “atomic skeptics’” minds. It just confirmed what everyone already knew! If the hypothesis that something exists clearly provides the best explanation for what we can observe, then the belief that it exists is what is rational. The fact that the thing itself is not technically observable does not make doubting its existence rational.What’s more, the atoms were seen with an electron microscope. But electrons are themselves unobservable. How can an electron microscope reveal an atom if electrons are not real? This leads us to what is famously known as Hilary Putnam’s “miracle argument.” It’s (not) a miraclePhilosopher Hilary Putnam’s miracle argument is somewhat famous. Basically, he argued that a scientific theory being able to repeatedly make successful predictions—even about unobservables—without being at least approximately true would require a “miracle.” In other words, it would be such an improbable occurrence that it could not rationally be believed—the better explanation for why scientific theories about unobservables make the right predictions is because the unobservable entities and structures they hypothesize exist.Van Fraassen has addressed this argument. Indeed, in his original article, where he references Alison Gopnik’s point about orgasms not being “necessary for procreation” even though the desire for orgasm “drives the creation of progeny,” he is pointing to his own argument about how organisms are not naturally selected by evolution to get true beliefs; to the extent that belief-forming processes are selected for, the ones that are selected are the ones that are useful for survival—not the ones that produce true beliefs. In the same way, van Fraassen argues, scientific theories are accepted, not because they are true, but because they aren’t falsified; they make successful predictions; that’s what makes them “stick around.” So, the fact that they make successful predictions (and thus became accepted) is not a reason to think they are true.This argument is similar to C. S. Lewis’s “argument from reason,” which he used to argue against evolution: “The truth of evolution undercuts our ability to know that it is true.” Lewis’ argument famously failed; Elizabeth Anscombe, by Lewis’s own admission, demolished Lewis in a debate on the topic, and I have explained elsewhere why modified versions of the argument fail as well. In short, it’s because it fails to recognize that a belief-forming process can make an organism more likely to survive because it reliably produces true beliefs. It is therefore not the case that beliefs generated by naturally selected belief-forming processes are automatically false or unjustified.In the same way, the reason a theory “sticks around” could be because it’s not falsified, because it “makes correct predictions.” But the reason it makes correct predictions is most likely because it is true. (In pointing this out, I am echoing the arguments of Musgrave, Lipton, Psillos, and Kitcher, who refuted van Fraassen’s argument and analogy long before his 2024 article.) It would be a huge coincidence that it could do so without being true. And that is the point of Putnam’s miracle argument. Thus, contrary to van Fraassen’s suggestion, the mere fact that a theory’s predictive success is why it “sticks around” or “becomes accepted” in the scientific community is not a reason to be skeptical about its truth. ConclusionLet me close by saying something about the fact that empiricists don’t doubt the truth of all scientific theories, just the ones that hypothesize unobservables. In today’s society, this theory is dangerous to espouse publicly. The nuance between being skeptical about all of science, and just the highly technical theories about unobservables, is guaranteed to be lost to the average reader. And there is so much unjustified skepticism and doubt about the findings of science and experts that a headline like “Science Does Not Describe Reality” could easily fuel the anti-science movement, worsen climate change denial and cause the next pandemic.This is why I believe it was important to still respond to van Fraassen’s article, a full two years after he wrote it. Not only, as I have argued, does it represent a philosophically inaccurate view of how scientific reasoning works and what scientific reasoning can do, but it is a dangerous view to boot. It should thus be rejected.
Apple Stores Receive 'Do Not Open' Boxes Ahead of Smart Home Products Launch
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Amazon unveils faster Fire TV Stick 4K (2026) and a new Fire TV Remote
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Amazon Unveils A Thinner And Faster Fire TV Stick 4K, Plus A New Remote
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Enhance Your Ace Combat 8 Experience with Two Rival PS5 Flight Sticks, Out This Week
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Art that serves others: How a Harnett County muralist is making a lasting mark in her community
Van Goat Studios, which has been operating since 2019, has allowed Johnson to express herself and reflect the spirit of local communities through murals. Photo provided by Elyse Johnson.Elyse Johnson of Van Goat Studios in Dunn wants to spread her artistry and make a lasting mark in her community. Van Goat, which has been operating since 2019, has allowed Johnson to express herself through murals and decorating electrical boxes in the urban landscapes of North Carolina. On top of traditional mural painting, Johnson offers what she calls “portable murals,” an option tailor-made for structure owners who do not want to commit to a design for their wall.“A contractor builds a framed piece of wood, and then they can frame the ‘mural’ onto the wood, whether it’s into their building, whether it’s interior or exterior,” Johnson said. The beginnings of Johnson’s journey into establishing Van Goat Studios reflect the teachings she wants artists to take away today: everything is a learning opportunity. When she started Van Goat, she shared it was a joint venture with a business partner. “I mainly did that because I didn’t feel like I was ready to go and do this on my own,” Johnson said. Her business partner eventually dropped out of the project, deciding she wanted to pursue other forms of art. That is when Johnson was thrust into growing her business on her own during and in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. “I had built up my confidence enough to go out and reach new heights,” she said. “And I was probably one of the few that benefited from COVID.”The moment presented a silver lining for Johnson. One of her first projects was a Farmers Day mural for the town of Coats. “When COVID-19 hit, Coats was not able to hold their annual festival, so they had a little bit of savings. They decided they wanted to do something for their community without getting anyone sick,” Johnson said.From there, word of mouth spread. Now, Johnson has an organic way of approaching projects. “Like a lot of muralists, if I feel inspired by a building, I will just go up and talk to that building owner and tell them a mural is something they should consider,” Johnson said. But above all, Johnson says she wants art to be accessible to everyone. Johnson said she is trying to stick to projects that benefit “the little guys.” “I’m not trying to go for a project in downtown Raleigh to get the eight-foot-tall building,” Johnson said. “I’m not trying to go to those major cities and get those huge buildings for two reasons: one, I don’t want to go that high; two, my passion really lies with the small guys.” But due to financial constraints and the material reality of art commerce, that requires open communication, she added. “I don’t want to just snowball you with this huge price, and then you just shut me down because it wasn’t what you were thinking,” Johnson said. “At the same time, I am an advocate for the arts, so I’m not going to give you a $10,000 mural when you’re only going to pay $5,000.” There is a healthy balance in explaining the artistic process and working with clients and the surrounding community, Johnson said.“Your municipality invested this, and this is why they invested this, and this is how it’s going to help and improve your community,” she noted. “Same thing when I’m talking to a small business. You asked for me to come at you with this that is outside your budget. How do we make this still your same exact goal, but within your budget lines?” Johnson also provides lessons to aspiring artists. She does so with a mission: how do you master the balance between being a great artist and a competent business owner? “We still do art lessons, but I’m also going to give you business scenarios,” she noted.One of the scenarios she has come up with for her students is a T-shirt competition. “The kids have to think about ‘okay, I can’t just draw whatever I want on a T-shirt. I need to think about what colors Miss Elyse likes. What does Miss Elyse’s logo look like? What would Miss Elyse like?’” Johnson said. “So the design needs to be around that kind of concept.” As Johnson looks toward the future of Van Goat Studios, she is thinking of time, longevity and succession. Johnson is a new mom, which she said has shaped how she sees the future of the studio.“I still want my name and my business out there continuing, so that when my daughter is of age and she can be more independent, then I can be out there doing more and more,” Johnson said. “I would love to get a student to pass this on to, or an intern. I would love for this business to be passed on to the next generation and let them go.”
Chargers vs. Bills Week 3 live game chat
Stick right here to discuss this week’s game between the Chargers and Bills.
Scientists Solve a Decades-Old Stick Insect Mystery
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Loneliness, Isolation Can Strip Away Years Of Healthy Life, Large Study Finds
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6th grader’s science fair project answers age-old question: ‘Do cat buttholes touch everything?’
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