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There’s a Reason That Netflix’s Ad Business Has Underwhelmed
Somewhat lost in the company’s slew of firings and engagement warnings over the past few weeks was the fact that Netflix is scaling back its ad forecast for 2026 from $3 billion to $2.7 billion. That’s despite the fact that: CTV is growing by 14-15% this year This year saw a monster upfront Netflix is the biggest streamer out there this side of YouTube, and was the platform that for years brands were supposedly dying to be a part of In other words, that’s an alarming pull-back from Netflix. A Wall Street analyst I spoke with last week was blunt, calling Netflix’s ad business “disappointing.” To me, a red flag on the ad front is that Netflix has never revealed how many ad-supported subscribers it has. Because if I know anything about how big companies work, if they have a positive number that makes them look really good - they tend to share it. (How many subs does go90 have right now? We’re not saying just yet. How are ads going on ChatGPT? Oh, a billion run rate - I see). Yes, to date Netflix has shared some fuzzy ad numbers, such as the idea that the company’s ad tier ‘reaches’ 250 million users globally.’ Here’s why that figure gives me pause: a)they lead with global, and b) they don’t explain how they are calculated. (Are they based on average people in each room? Surveys of some kind?). Regardless, some insiders say that Netflix’s ad tier is scaling nicely - others not so much. Either way, one of Netflix’s biggest challenge on the ad front appears to have been its starting point. Remember, when Netflix launched ads in 2022, it had 73 million subs in the US and Canada. That’s 73 million people who were used to Netflix with zero ads. And when the ad product rolled out, the company clearly was going after new users - a limited pool of potential subscribers by default. That focus seems to have changed over time, as Netflix has tried to convert longtime subscribers to the ad tier. Historically Netflix subscribers are very sticky. But is the company’s low churn a problem? Not necessarily, according to Antenna data. Rather, Netflix’s consumer loyalty is a bit of a double-edged sword. “Netflix is the one streamer which actually has seen substantial “trade downs” but has much lower ‘win backs,’ said Antenna founder Jonathan Carson (win-backs being people who were on the ad-free plan, cancelled, then rejoined on the ad plan). “Netflix has lower churn and so has less opportunity to win back old subs with a lower cost plan option.” This all might explain why Netflix has been so slow to roll out all of these table stakes targeting options until just this week. It likely didn’t have enough users to carve up into various targets. etc. However, what really hit Netflix’s ad business was Amazon’s move a few years ago to turn on advertising for Prime Video by default. Suddenly the market was awash in premium inventory, and Netflix was playing catch-up on multiple fronts. Thus, the streaming giant appears to still be figuring out if if wants lead in ‘programmatic TV,’ or premium ‘upfront’ TV sales. “The CTV market now sorts into three businesses, and Netflix is not the leader of any of them,” wrote analyst Jack Myers. Ouch. So how does Netflix ratchet up its ads business? Get the next NFL package You’re gonna have to wait until 2030 unless one of the bigger media companies like Skydance opts out, but the easiest (not cheapest) way for Netflix to become a huge TV ads contender is to get one of the regular NFL packages, ideally Sunday afternoons. That way it can sell ads to its whole U.S. subs base overnight. Go FAST This one is risky, because to program a compelling FAST channel, you’d likely have to take some older Netflix exclusive shows and make them available for free to non-subscribers. But FASTs, for better or worse, are ad-inventory machines. Go full UGC I’m not sure I see this happening. There is something already off about Netflix carrying podcasts and shows for creators. The experience sticks out in what is such a produced, and generally non-communal environment. But Netflix could open up its platform by allowing creators to upload videos without having to be approved by the service. But that opens a whole other can of worms (policing brand safety, copyright infringement, overall quality). Make a huge RMN Deal I was going to suggest something crazy, such as ‘instead of buying Warner Brothers, Netflix should buy Target. But the company doesn’t want to be in the brick and mortar business. Yet for Netflix’s ad business to compete in an Amazon world, it needs to be able to connect ad exposures to shopping. What if, instead of letting Amazon target Netflix viewers with its DSP, Netflix inked a deal with Target, or even took control of Roundel, and created its version of the Amazon full-funnel for brands? Price us out. I hope they don’t do this, but Netflix’s price increases - while significant - haven’t been enough to push long-term customers out of the ad-free tier. But if they made those prices so prohibitive, it could push large swaths of consumers to trade down. Then again, that could also dent engagement - as binging becomes much less appealing once you bring ads into the equation. Or, they could just launch a bunch of hit shows and maybe everyone will quickly forget all this angst. More from Amazon unBoxed A few weeks ago, I recorded two podcasts live at Amazon’s unBoxed event in San Francisco. I was able to go really deep with several brand partners about how Amazon’s various data and ad products work - particularly the under appreciated Amazon Marketing Cloud. First, I talked with Laura Abadias Velilla, of the Amazon specialty agency Amerge, along with Amazon’s own Charlotte Maines, Vice President, Devices Content & Advertising, about how the two partners helped a very specific printer company Epson launch into a brand new category - high end projectors. It’s a great example of how brands connect audience data across platforms to make budget deployment decisions. Next, I chatted with Monks VP Head of Digital Investment for North America Tom Burchill about how the agency actually brought in data from Linkedin to help target B2B customers across various Amazon properties for the brand Quicken. Check it out: Check these out, or just listen:
More Than a Charcuterie Board: A Mother and Daughter Build a Business Around Gathering.
The Bar Harbor Story is generously sponsored by Birch Bay Retirement Village. NORTHEAST HARBOR—Food’s ability to be a social cornerstone is one of the founding premises of one of Mount Desert Island’s newest, and perhaps most unique, endeavors in cuisine based catering. From intimate gatherings to large functions, Olive & Pearl creates charcuterie boards that can not only astound the tongue but also the eye. Many would agree that food can bring people together. In fact, culinary delights, and sometimes adventures, have been utilized as the centerpiece for social and business occasions of all kinds for centuries. Often times it even has the ability to start conversation, temper differences, and build new relationships. Settings can vary, from a multi-course sit down meal, a backyard barbecue, or a couple of bowls of chips and dip in front of a television, but the result can be the same. Humans come together, they share food, and the whole process is a catalyst for thought, communication, and a shared experience. Imagined and created by the mother and daughter team of Dr. Susan Scanlan (formerly MacCready) and Kayla Musetti, Olive & Pearl was started in June of this year and has been creating, delighting, and growing since. We gave the two an opportunity to answer some questions about themselves and their new venture. The love, passion, and pride for what they are doing and the fact that they are doing it as a mother and daughter team came through so strongly in their answers that we decided to present the question and answer session in its entirety. The Interview What did you do prior to Olive & Pearl? We’re a mother-daughter team, and food, family, and hospitality have always been a big part of our lives. Susan grew up in a large family in Pennsylvania, where the table was always at the center of everything. There were multiple dishes, little bites, stories, and plenty of conversation. Food was never simply about eating. It was about gathering, celebrating, and spending time together. After living in several Southern states, Susan relocated to Maine more than 20 years ago, and Maine has truly become home. She loves its sense of community, natural beauty, and connection to local food and makers. Professionally, Susan is a registered nurse and holds a doctorate in health administration. She has worked in a variety of clinical, nonclinical, and leadership roles and currently works as a faculty academic director. Building Olive & Pearl has been an exciting creative venture alongside her career. Kayla is also a registered nurse and works in the ambulatory surgery unit at Mount Desert Island Hospital. While healthcare is an important part of both of our professional lives, Olive & Pearl has given us an entirely different way to connect, collaborate, and create something together. Tell us about the business. Olive & Pearl is a mother-daughter charcuterie business centered around beautiful food, thoughtful presentation, and bringing people together. We create curated charcuterie boards designed for everything from intimate gatherings and dinner parties to weddings, showers, corporate events, boat days, and celebrations of all kinds. We think of our boards as more than food. They’re an experience and an invitation to gather, slow down, and enjoy time with the people around you. We’re intentional about quality ingredients, artful presentation, and personalization. Whenever possible, we also incorporate Maine-made and locally sourced products, including cheeses, jams, honey, seasonal produce, and baked goods. What inspired you to start Olive & Pearl? In many ways, Olive & Pearl grew out of something we had been doing our entire lives —bringing people together around food. We’ve always loved creating beautiful spreads for family and friends. There was something special about watching people gather around a table, graze, talk, laugh, and simply enjoy being together. Friends and family began telling us, “You should do this as a business,” and one day, we stopped laughing it off and started mapping it out. We realized we had an opportunity to combine our different strengths and create something that reflected what we both value: hospitality, creativity, quality, and connection. Charcuterie felt like the perfect expression of that. It’s beautiful and creative, but it’s also communal and approachable. At its heart, it brings us right back to where the idea began, a table filled with food and people gathered around it. Do you have a business partner(s)? Our business partner is each other! Olive & Pearl is truly a mother-daughter partnership, and building it together has been incredibly meaningful and sometimes hilarious! We know each other extremely well, which can be both a strength and, occasionally, a challenge. We have different personalities and strengths, but we’ve learned to lean into those differences and use them to our advantage. There’s a lot of trust between us, and we’ve learned how to communicate, collaborate, and occasionally laugh at ourselves along the way. We’re also building Olive & Pearl while continuing our careers in healthcare and education, so we’re taking things thoughtfully and growing the business one step at a time. We all have to start somewhere. One of the most rewarding parts has been having something that belongs to both of us. We get to learn from one another, celebrate the small wins together, and create something that we hope will become part of our family’s story for years to come. When exactly did you launch the business? Recently, in June 2026, we launched Olive & Pearl, turning an idea we had talked about for years into real business. It has been incredibly rewarding to watch something that started around our own family table and begin to find a place within the community. How is it going so far? How do you feel it has been received? It has been going very well, and we’ve been incredibly encouraged by how warmly Olive & Pearl has been received. As more people hear about us, our orders have continued to increase, and we’re seeing growing interest in boards for events and celebrations. It’s exciting to watch something that began as an idea between the two of us start to grow within the community. One of the most rewarding parts is hearing from customers after their events or seeing photos of our boards being enjoyed. Knowing that something we created became part of someone’s celebration is incredibly meaningful to us. Is there a brick-and-mortar location or is it all online? Olive & Pearl is currently an online business. We’re intentionally starting this way so we can build relationships with our customers, learn what they love, and grow thoughtfully. Our long-term dream, if the business continues to grow, is to eventually have a sit-down space where people can experience Olive & Pearl in person. Do you have any future plans if things go well/keep going well? Absolutely. For now, our focus is on continuing to grow Olive & Pearl, getting to know our customers, and becoming part of more celebrations and gatherings throughout the area. Long term, we would love to have our own physical space where people can come together and experience Olive & Pearl beyond the boards themselves. We can imagine a place that combines food, hospitality, creativity, and community. Ultimately, we want to build something that continues to grow while still feeling personal and connected to the people and community around us. Is there an aspect of the business that you really love? There are so many things we love about it, but the people and the connection are probably at the top of the list. We love creating something beautiful, but what really matters to us is what happens after we hand it over to the customer. We picture our boards on kitchen islands, at backyard gatherings, on boats, at weddings, or around a long dinner table—with people laughing, talking, and lingering a little longer. We also love the creative side. Every board is an opportunity to play with color, texture, shape, seasonality, and flavor. We don’t just want to fill a board, we want to curate an experience. And supporting local makers is especially meaningful to us. Whenever possible, we love incorporating Maine-made cheeses, local jams and honey, seasonal produce, and products from nearby bakeries and businesses. It allows us to showcase some of what makes Maine so special. Perhaps most importantly, we love doing this together. Building something as a mother and daughter has given us another way to spend time together, learn from one another, celebrate small wins, and create memories. Is there anything regarding any aspect of Olive & Pearl that you may think is important that is not reflected on the website? One thing that may not always come through online is just how personal this business is to us. Olive & Pearl isn’t something we created simply because charcuterie was popular. It grew very naturally from our family, our traditions, and the way we’ve always enjoyed gathering with people we love. There is a lot of heart behind every board. We think about the people who will be enjoying it, the occasion they’re celebrating, and how we can make the experience feel special. We also want people to know that we care deeply about supporting locals whenever possible. Using Maine products isn’t just about sourcing ingredients, it’s about telling a little story about where we live and the talented people who make and grow wonderful things here. Is there anything that we have not asked that you think is important/relevant that would like readers to know? We hope people see Olive & Pearl as more than just a charcuterie business. At its heart, it’s about gathering. Our goal is to make it easier for people to create those moments when everyone gathers around the table, conversations last a little longer, and people simply enjoy being together. We also hope people see the mother-daughter story behind the business. We’re building Olive & Pearl alongside our careers, one step at a time, and there is something incredibly special about creating a shared family legacy in the process. For us, success isn’t just about how many boards we make. It’s about becoming part of people’s special moments - birthdays, weddings, weekends with friends, quiet evenings at home, or a beautiful day on the Maine coast. If one of our boards helps people put down their phones, linger a little longer, laugh a little more, and enjoy the people around them, then we feel like we’ve done exactly what we set out to do. All photos courtesy of Olive & Pearl. LINKS TO LEARN MORE Olive & Pearl website Olive & Pearl Facebook Olive & Pearl Instagram RECENT PRESS RELEASES AND BRIEFS To see all the press releases, click here. To see our news, click here. For the full archive, click here. All of these are on our dedicated website. 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Oct 22 ](https://barharborstory.substack.com/p/explore-career-opportunities-where) [ Read full story ](https://barharborstory.substack.com/p/explore-career-opportunities-where) [ Cranberry Isles Comprehensive Plan Committee Oct 22 ](https://barharborstory.substack.com/p/cranberry-isles-comprehensive-plan) [ Read full story ](https://barharborstory.substack.com/p/cranberry-isles-comprehensive-plan) [ ](https://barharborstory.substack.com/p/community-school-hosts-a-pancake) [ Community School Hosts a Pancake Breakfast Fundraiser October 25! Oct 22 ](https://barharborstory.substack.com/p/community-school-hosts-a-pancake) [ Read full story ](https://barharborstory.substack.com/p/community-school-hosts-a-pancake) HELP SUPPORT THE BAR HARBOR STORY When we started The Bar Harbor Story, we didn’t know if anyone would read it. But you showed up. You shared. You sent tips. Now—over 400,000 views every month later—it’s clear: people here care about their community and each other. We’ve kept everything free because news should never be out of reach, but every one of our stories takes time to write, and your support keeps The Bar Harbor Story going. If you value our work, please consider a paid subscription, a founding membership, or a sponsorship. It truly helps us cover one more meeting, tell one more story, shine one more light. Even $5 a month makes a difference. Click here to become a one-time supporter now. Thank you so much for being here. Founding member information can be found here. Have questions about sponsorships? Just send Shaun an email at sfarrar86@gmail.com, he’d love to hear from you. Subscribe Share Bar Harbor Story Share Leave a comment
Whole Hog Politics: 5 House races that will tell the story of 2026
[Watch Whole Hog Politics Live: Hill Insider members can join us live today at 9 a.m. ET as Chris Stirewalt and host Bill Sammon go deep on this week’s political news. Members can join the discussi…
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SHANE BROWN: If my house is haunted, I hope it's just my ghost cats
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SHANE BROWN: If my house is haunted, I hope it's just my ghost cats
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Good to see you after all this time. Scientists finally put a face to Denisovans
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SpaceX bear flips to big bull because of AI business. Analyst now sees 70% gain
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Bogdan Bogdanović Could Steal Reed Sheppard’s Minutes in Houston
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Democrats’ Projected Majority Grows as 19 More House Races Shift Away From the GOP
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LeBron James: Donald Trump accuses Philadelphia 76ers star of moving during national anthem before NBA season opener
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Userland" exploit relies on integer overflow found in "SmileBasic" interpreter.
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(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) Yeah, I’ll be honest: I went with a clickbait-y headline today. One chart? That explains everything? That’s as clickbait-y as it gets. But let’s be real. I’m analyzing a dataset that I’ve built over six years, and c’mon, I never write articles which feature just one chart! If you think this article—which includes a level of data detail unheard of in journalism twenty years ago—is clickbait, fine by me. Really, what I’m doing is using data to explain Netflix’s recent strategy changes, since the story of the month is the turbulence at Netflix. First, head of content Bela Bajaria was fired. Then head of film Dan Lin followed her to the unemployment ranks. (Along with, sadly, 1,000 other Netflix workers.) And then Netflix delivered a “sub-optimal” earnings report, which continued their year-long stock price slide. Then came a flood of articles explaining why all this is happening. (Mine’s coming shortly, rest assured.) I realized I had the perfect chart to explain Netflix’s woes. Specifically, Nielsen’s weekly top ten charts. Usually I focus on one or two weeks in my Streaming Ratings Reports, but sometimes it’s worth stepping back to look at the larger story. And hoo boy, what a story. This article is my annual (plus three months) follow-up to one of my most popular articles of last year. (And a topic I’ve been visualizing for the last half decade.) Subscribe Netflix’s Share of The Nielsen Charts Continues to Decline
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Tom Skerritt, who starred in 'Alien' and 'Top Gun,' dies at 93
Skerritt died Wednesday of natural causes
Tom Skerritt, who starred in 'Alien' and 'Top Gun,' dies at 93
Skerritt died Wednesday of natural causes
Emmy-winning actor Tom Skerritt dies at 93
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How well have past GOTY winners sold?
We’re less than two months away from 2026’s The Game Awards, and what a year it’s been for fantastic games, including Resident Evil Requiem, Forza Horizon 6, Slay the Spire II, the Blood of Dawnwalker, and Control Resonant – just to name a few. So as we approach the end of the year, we thought we’d look back on our estimates for the GOTY winners of the past four years. In terms of revenue, Elden Ring (2022 winner), Baldur’s Gate 3 (2023), Astro Bot (2024), and Expedition 33 (2025) have generated a combined $3.8B via 73M copies sold: Let’s have a look, then. Elden Ring has generated $2B in revenue Elden Ring is a phenomenon in every sense. It’s sold a whopping 36.4M copies across Steam (50%), PS5 (35%), and Xbox (15% across console and PC). Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Elden Ring also just passed an astronomical milestone: $2B in revenue. While PlayStation and Xbox account for half of Elden Ring’s copies sold across these three platforms, they account for 57.5% of revenue. This – as ever – is due to regional pricing and the higher relative share of PC gamers in lower-priced markets. For example, around 17.4% of Elden Ring’s Steam copies sold were in China, where the game costs about 26% less than the price in the States. There’s an … interesting narrative going around these days that console gamers are only interested in ball-and-gun games and have the patience for little else. Well, Elden Ring’s impressive sales prove that is simply not true, and across all platforms. What’s more, over 9.8M people have played Elden Ring for over 100 hours, with nearly 3.5M people getting all of the achievements and trophies. For reference, 10.9% of Elden Ring’s PlayStation players have the platinum trophy, while 10.5% of players on Steam and 3.9% of Xbox players unlocked all the achievements. Git gud, Xbox players! Of the 1.5M people who played Elden Ring on PlayStation last month, 4% also played Dark Souls 3 last month, 4% played Bloodborne, and 3% played Sekiro. There’s those Soulsborne diehards for you. By many accounts, including my own, Elden Ring is one of the best games of all time. It’s an evergreen seller that will continue to be a cash cow for Bandai and FromSoftware for years to come. Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Elden Ring has sold another 2M copies across Steam, PlayStation, and Xbox this year, generating almost $110M. This means it’s outperforming many of this year’s high-profile releases. Even Elden Ring’s standalone run-based PvE spinoff, 2025’s Nightreign, has sold 7.8M copies and generated $282M in revenue. Baldur’s Gate 3 is another billion-dollar-plus banger Another cross-platform phenomenon is Baldur’s Gate 3, which has sold 23.2M copies and generated over $1.2B in revenue. About 18.7M of these copies (80.6%) are via Steam, 2.9M via PS5 (12.7%), and 1.6M (6.8%) via Xbox. Around 1.3M folks on Steam bought BG3 before it hit 1.0. The PlayStation version launched about a month after the PC 1.0 release, while the Xbox version came four months later due to technical issues around developing local co-op on the Series S. Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Across platforms, Baldur’s Gate 3’s monthly active users have never dropped below 2M, including 2.2M MAUs last month (68.5% on Steam, 21.9% on PS5, and 9.6% on Xbox). And it still regularly brings in 280K to 400K players every day: About 1% of BG3’s Steam player base has played for over 500 hours! That’s a little under 200K people. Astro Bot is also an evergreen seller, albeit a more niche, family one Astro Bot, 2024’s winner, has now sold 4.7M copies and generated $291M in revenue. The budget, including marketing, is almost certainly under $100M, given the small Japan-based core team and three-year dev timeline. You can really see why the tides are changing toward less expensive hubs. Astro Bot is the only first-party winner on this list, but follows other first-party winners of The Last of Us Part II (2020’s winner), God of War (2018), and Breath of the Wild (2017). Around 46.6% of Astro Bot’s copies sold have been physical, which is far higher than the typical game. This makes sense for a couple of reasons: There’s a large family audience for this one, and physical boxes are an item to wrap when giving Astro as a gift. Astro has collector value for the PlayStation core (this is nostalgia-fueled platformer celebrating PlayStation’s history) Want more free estimates and insights in your inbox twice a week? Subscribe below! Subscribe Astro is another one of those games that continues selling over time, regularly selling more than 100K a month. It’s sold around 1M more copies this year ($60M in revenue) and is a popular title with families. We can see this using the Alinea platform’s MAU crossover tool: Astro Bot’s top #2, #3, and #4 games by crossover in any given month this year are Minecraft, Fortnite, and Roblox – without fail. The #1 title every month, though, is Astro’s Playroom, a pack-in with all PS5 consoles. For every month this year, between 20% and 30% of Astro Bot players also played Astro’s Playroom that month. So the free pack-in is a noice funnel for converting players to a full paid product. Expedition 33 sells 8.7M despite Game Pass cannibalisation Finally, we have last year’s winner – Expedition 33. The turn-based-RPG banger has generated $366M via 8.7M copies sold, with 58.8% on Steam, 35.7% on PS5, and 5.5% on Xbox. Xbox’s share of copies sold is this low due to Expedition 33 launching on Game Pass, where 4.3M people across console and PC accessed the game. A little under 700K Xbox players used their subscription to play Expedition 33 this year. That said, the game’s 1.5-year Game Pass deal ended last week on October 16, and we’re already beginning to see a positive trend on Expedition 33’s copies sold via Xbox (but the jury’s still out!). There’s understandably a lot of French pride behind this one, as France is the game’s #3 market on both Steam and PlayStation. Vive la France! One thing that stood out to me is that the GOTY winners aren’t $300M Hollywood productions made in the US. They’re mostly mid-budget studios outside the traditional AAA cost centres. Lots to think about there. Also, good games sell well; who’d have thunk it!? And there’s a whole load of them this year, with GTA 6 still to come, too. GTA just made the cutoff point for the VGAs this year. What a coincidence! Loading... Cool links and other stuff Our physical games newsletter from Tuesday was picked up by GameSpot, Eurogamer, TweakTown, and a bunch of others. We’re offering a free trial of our platform for games companies. Send us a message here, or reply right here on Substack/email, and we’ll set you up. Next week, we’ve got some exciting news regarding the future of our newsletter, so stay tuned! The last word Reply to this email – or reach out here – if you have any feedback for the newsletter – or want to request a game for us to cover. Want to see why these companies (and many others) are subscribed to Alinea? Get a free platform trial! [Alinea Analytics boasts the most accurate PC and console estimates in the business. Game makers use our platform to understand their audience, keep an eye on the competition, monitor sales trends, and spot new opportunities. We equip game studios and financial institutions with accurate data and the confidence to make smarter, data-driven decisions. Want to talk about all things games market data? We’d love to chat!]
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