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A Look At PENN Entertainment (PENN) Valuation After Recent Share Price Volatility
Assessing PENN Entertainment after recent performance PENN Entertainment (PENN) has drawn fresh attention after a mixed stretch in its share price, with a 1 day decline of about 4.5% contrasting with modest gains over the past month and past 3 months. See our latest analysis for PENN Entertainment. At a share price of $14.77, PENN Entertainment has seen pressure in the very short term, with a 1 day share price return of about a 4.5% decline and a 7 day share price return of a 7.8% decline...
Trump’s CDC chief pick a move towards ‘evidence-based science’
Optimism over president’s choice of former deputy surgeon-general as next director of troubled agency
Sainsbury's echoes Tesco warning as Iran war weighs on outlook
British supermarket group Sainsbury’s warned on Thursday that uncertainty around how the Iran war will affect consumers is clouding its outlook and could drag profits lower this year, echoing concerns voiced by market leader Tesco.
‘Invincible’: Who Won the Viltrumite War? The Finale Explained
Mark is left with a horrible choice. Lee Pace explains Thragg's ultimate plan.
iPhone 18 Pro’s new color will be a mix of these three, says leaker
A Weibo leaker has offered a unique description of the iPhone 18 Pro color option that Apple is expected to market as its flagship.
Virginia Evans and Susan Choi are among 6 finalists for the Women's Prize for Fiction
Four debut novelists are among the six finalists for the 2026 Women’s Prize for Fiction, announced Wednesday | Newsradio 1140 WRVA
Virginia Evans and Susan Choi are among 6 finalists for the Women's Prize for Fiction
Four debut novelists are among the six finalists for the 2026 Women’s Prize for Fiction, announced Wednesday | 830 WCCO
McLeod Health Holds Ribbon Cutting for New Pharmacy
McLeod Health held a ribbon cutting and open house on April 20, 2026, for its new McLeod Choice Pharmacy. The pharmacy officially opens
A Look At Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) Valuation As Upgraded Earnings Outlook Lifts Momentum
Momentum shift puts Sphere Entertainment in focus Recent favorable revisions to earnings estimates and a strong momentum score have pushed Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) onto more investors’ radars, as the stock’s performance has differed from both the broader market and its media peers. See our latest analysis for Sphere Entertainment. Despite a 2.8% decline in the latest session and a 4.4% 7 day share price pullback, Sphere Entertainment’s 30 day share price return of 18.8% and very large 1...
Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Valuation Check As Digital Growth Offsets Mixed Long Term Returns
Recent performance snapshot and business mix Caesars Entertainment (CZR) has seen mixed share performance, with a small 1 day pullback following gains of about 4% over the past week and roughly 3% over the past month. Over the past 3 months, the stock shows a return of about 17%, while the 1 year total return is close to 3%. Longer horizons look weaker, with 3 year and 5 year total returns of about 35% and 73% declines respectively. The company reports annual revenue of about US$11.5b and a...
Assessing Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE) Valuation After New Impossible Foods Partnership
Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE) is in focus after announcing a multiyear partnership with Impossible Foods. The deal introduces branded plant-based offerings, a dedicated Impossible Grille concession and expanded in-arena promotion across Knicks and Rangers home events. See our latest analysis for Madison Square Garden Entertainment. The stock is trading at $61.42 after a 9.37% 1 month share price return and 13.03% year to date share price return. The 1 year total shareholder...
Despite Fast-paced Momentum, AMC Entertainment (AMC) Is Still a Bargain Stock
AMC Entertainment (AMC) made it through our 'Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain' screen and could be a great choice for investors looking for stocks that have gai
College athlete gave up athletic scholarship; was it the right choice
Growing up, running was my life, and I worked hard to earn a college scholarship. But when I started school, my passion for the sport disappeared.
Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
The Death of Public Health
During the recent measles outbreak, the largest in more than 30 years, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. refused to clearly recommend the measles vaccine, saying instead that it was a “personal decision,” and that parents should “do their own research.” Similarly, during her recent confirmation hearing for United States Surgeon General, Casey Means was questioned by Senator William Cassidy (R, La). “You’re the nation’s doctor,” said Cassidy. “Would you encourage [a mother] to have her child vaccinated!” “I’m not an individual’s doctor,” Means said. “And every individual needs to talk to their doctor before putting a medication in their body.” In June 2025, Marty Makary, Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), said that COVID vaccines for pregnant women should be a “personal choice”, even though every other country in the world recommended the COVID vaccine during pregnancy due to a higher risk for severe disease. It doesn’t end there. On January 5, 2026, RFK Jr. reduced the number of routinely recommended vaccines from 18 to 10. For vaccines that protected against influenza, COVID, and rotavirus, parents were urged to speak with their doctors—to make an individual choice. (On March 16, 2026, in a ruling by a federal court in Boston, RFK Jr.’s revised schedule was invalidated.) What’s happening? Why are public health officials moving away from making recommendations for the public? The origin of this change might be rooted in the first two years of the COVID pandemic. In 2020, during the first year on the pandemic, we didn’t have anything to stop a virus that was killing hundreds of people a day and could be spread asymptomatically. We didn’t have antivirals until October, monoclonal antibodies until November, and vaccines until December. All we could do was restrict travel, close businesses, shutter schools, and mask, isolate, quarantine, test, and social distance. During the second year of the pandemic, when we had vaccines to prevent COVID, people couldn’t go anywhere without their vaccine cards. They couldn’t go to their favorite bar or restaurant or sporting event or place of worship without proof of vaccination. Some people were fired from their jobs for refusing to get vaccinated. For many, this was seen as massive government overreach and energized what has been called the “medical freedom movement.” Indeed, a headline in the New York Times declared, “How Health Freedom Became a Winning Rally Cry.” As expressed in the comments of RFK Jr., Casey Means, and Marty Makary, the medical freedom movement focuses on the individual not the community—the opposite of public health. In an article titled “Ethics and Social Value Judgments in Public Health,” ethicists from Yale University distinguished public health from medical freedom. “Public health policies,” they wrote, “are population oriented. Because individual health affects the health of others, public health measures regulate individual behavior to achieve population health goals. All raise questions about how individual autonomy and freedom should be balanced against public health interests…which respects individuals’ sovereignty over their bodies and actions as long as their actions do not harm others.” The medical freedom movement fails to recognize that it often limits the freedom of others. For example, a parent who is afraid to send a child to school where many of the students are unvaccinated. Or immune compromised children who depend on those around them to for protection. The question then becomes “Freedom for whom?” Is it your right, in the name of medical freedom, to catch and transmit a potentially fatal infection—and in so doing, take away the freedom of others? In Four Essays on Liberty, Isaiah Berlin sums it up best. “Liberty for the wolves,” he wrote, “is death to the lambs.” Thanks for reading Beyond the Noise! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Subscribe
The healthcare subsidy paradox
For Millions the choice is no longer about selecting a healthcare plan that meets their medical needs; instead, must choose only what they can afford.
Is It Healthy to Eat Yogurt Every Day? A Dietitian Explains
Full of protein and probiotics, yogurt is a healthy choice. But can you eat it every day?
Orbán’s Hungary Defeat Shows Disinformation is Not a Political Magic Trick
Counter-disinformation work should be supported continually, not to prevent certain election outcomes but to give voters the chance to make an informed choice.
Is Six Flags (FUN) Turning Ride Upgrades Into a Test of Its Per-Guest Value Strategy?
Six Flags New England recently held an exclusive press preview for Quantum Accelerator, New England’s first dual-launch straddle coaster, alongside broader upgrades to Crackaxle Canyon and park-wide dining and retail offerings. The combination of a headline coaster and enhanced food, beverage, and pass benefits highlights Six Flags’ focus on deepening guest engagement and extracting more value per visit. We’ll now look at how Quantum Accelerator’s debut and related guest-experience...
A Look At AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) Valuation After Recent Share Price Momentum
AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) has recently drawn fresh attention as the share price moved to US$1.86, with a one-month return of 89.7% and a three-month return of 15.5%. See our latest analysis for AMC Entertainment Holdings. While the recent 1 month share price return of 89.7% suggests strong short term momentum, the 1 year total shareholder return decline of 33.1% and 5 year total shareholder return decline of 96.6% highlight how volatile the ride has been for long term holders. If fast...
Is It Too Late To Consider Guardant Health (GH) After Its 100% One Year Surge?
If you are wondering whether Guardant Health at around US$90.36 is still fairly priced or starting to look stretched, the key question is what that tag says about the underlying business. The stock has seen sharp swings, with a 15.0% move over the last 7 days, 6.1% over 30 days, a 100.9% return over 1 year and a 268.7% return over 3 years, while the 5 year return sits at a 42.9% decline and the year to date return at an 11.2% decline. Recent headlines around Guardant Health have focused on...
A Look At Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) Valuation After Citi Downgrade And Buyback Delay Concerns
Why Citi’s downgrade has put Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) under closer scrutiny Citi’s downgrade of Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) to sell, tied to concerns about US growth, profit targets, and possible delays to buybacks, has pushed investors to reassess the stock’s risk profile. See our latest analysis for Flutter Entertainment. At a share price of $110.08, Flutter’s 7 day share price return of 7.52% and 1 day gain of 0.94% sit against a 90 day share price return decline of 41.59%...
Juventus look at Lucumi amid competition for first choice Senesi
Jhon Lucumi will start for Bologna against Juventus tomorrow, and it may well be an opportunity to discuss a transfer, as first choice Marco Senesi is closer to Liverpool or Tottenham.The Bianconeri a...
Apple AirPods Max 2 vs. Sony WH-1000XM6: What's the Best Choice for Apple Users?
How do the AirPods Max 2 stack up to Sony's excellent WH-1000XM6 headphones? CNET's audio expert David Carnoy gives you the full rundown.
Best of Blue Ridge Community’s Choice Awards business spotlight: Allen Tate/Beverly-Hanks Hendersonville
Nominations for the Best of Blue Ridge Community's Choice Awards are rolling in! Don't miss your chance to recognize your favorite businesses.
Tallahassee Community’s Choice Awards business spotlight: Sky's Healing Hands Massage
Nominations for the Tallahassee Community's Choice Awards are rolling in! Don't miss your chance to recognize your favorite businesses.
Finest on the Emerald Coast Community’s Choice Awards business spotlight: Stanton Automotive
Nominations for the Finest on the Emerald Coast Community's Choice Awards are rolling in! Don't miss your chance to recognize your favorite businesses.
Best of Bay Community’s Choice Awards business spotlight: Ardamas Fleet Services
Nominations for the Best of Bay Community's Choice Awards are rolling in! Don't miss your chance to recognize your favorite businesses.
Best of Central Florida Community’s Choice Awards business spotlight: MyerScapes Environmental
Ready to recognize your favorite local businesses? Submit your nominations for Best of Central Florida Community’s Choice Awards today.
Burlington Community’s Choice Awards business spotlight: Bright Smiles of Burlington County
Nominations for the Ashland Community's Choice Awards are rolling in! Don't miss your chance to recognize your favorite businesses.
Naples Community’s Choice Awards business spotlight: Nicoletta + Co.
We’re in the final stretch! Ready to recognize your favorite local businesses? Submit your nominations for Bonita Springs + Naples Community’s Choice Awards today.
Paul Gosar's rally appearance reignites health speculation
Arizona Congressman Paul Gosar's appearance at a Turning Point USA rally has renewed public speculation about his health, with observers citing slurred speech, unsteady posture, and difficulty completing sentences. Social media users suggested, without evidence, possible neurological conditions, echoing similar concerns raised in past years. Gosar has consistently denied such rumours, attributing symptoms to arthritis, spinal issues, and past surgeries.
Sunday Politics: New studio means more choice for audience
The programme will be broadcast live on BBC One NI and for the first time on Radio Ulster and Foyle.
Trump to Nominate Doctor Who Has Publicly Supported Vaccines as C.D.C. Director
Dr. Erica Schwartz is seen as a highly qualified traditional choice and tapping her is the strongest signal yet that the administration is veering away from vaccine skepticism this election year.
Should Monopoly Verdict and Breakup Risk Require Action From Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) Investors?
In recent days, a jury found that Live Nation Entertainment and its Ticketmaster unit illegally monopolized concert ticketing, opening the door for more than 30 US states to seek remedies that could include curbing the company’s power or even forcing a breakup. This verdict introduces significant legal uncertainty around Live Nation’s vertically integrated concerts and ticketing model, potentially reshaping how major live events are promoted, ticketed, and operated across the...
Health information delivered as a video game can bridge the communication gap between patients and providers
By letting people make choices and experience the outcomes of those choices, gaming provides a much more hands-on way of learning about health.
Unexpected Source of Salt May Be Raising Blood Pressure For Millions
This isn't a lifestyle choice.
Finish Line: The quiet rise of "prescribing connection"
Physicians are sending patients to choirs, art studios, walking clubs and lakesides.
Springing into science
When people understand science, the whole community benefits. A scientifically literate community is a stronger community – one where people can navigate new technologies, evaluate information and participate in conversations that shape our future. Scientific literacy isn’t about memorizing facts. It’s about understanding how the world works well enough to make thoughtful choices within it. […]
'Compassionate and principled': Shevrin Jones endorses Brice Barnes in open CD 2
The Democrat in line for Senate leadership says Barnes is the best choice to flip the district blue.
Asian shares mostly rise after Wall Street rallies on lower oil prices
Asian shares are mostly rising, echoing the rally on Wall Street that came as oil prices eased on hopes the United States and Iran may try again on talks to end their war.
No Other Pub nominated for Best Local Sports Bar in America in USA TODAY Sports Readers' Choice Awards
No Other Pub in the Kansas City Power & Light District is one of 20 finalists nationwide for Best Local Sports Bar in the USA TODAY Sports Readers' Choice Awards 2026 as nominated by an expert panel. Voting is open until 11 a.m. CT on Monday, May 11 and sports
Millions of Floridians Will Bear the Brunt of Trump’s Health Cuts
Medicaid cutbacks and the end of enhanced Obamacare subsidies leave patients and hospitals in the state with difficult choices
Assessing Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) Valuation After Its Recent Name Change And Share Price Rebound
Why Six Flags Entertainment Is Back On Investors’ Radar Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) has been reshaped by its July 2024 name change from Cedar Fair, putting fresh attention on a business that runs amusement parks, water parks, and resorts across North America. See our latest analysis for Six Flags Entertainment. Recent trading has been lively, with a 30 day share price return of 22.89% and a 90 day gain of 25.00%. However, the 1 year total shareholder return of 38.98% and 5 year total...
USA TODAY Sports launches inaugural Readers' Choice Awards
USA TODAY Sports Readers' Choice Awards voting is open. Cast your vote for best NFL cities, college baseball stadiums, and sports bars.
USA TODAY Sports launches inaugural Readers' Choice Awards
USA TODAY Sports Readers' Choice Awards voting is open. Cast your vote for best NFL cities, college baseball stadiums, and sports bars.
Create a multicolor MacBook Neo with Apple parts for just $39
The MacBook Neo is already available in a fun choice of colors, but some people like to go further by...
“The choice is yours…”, an analysis of Wilders’ algorithmic politics on platform X
Geert Wilders: a longtime actor in politicsGeert Wilders has been a long-standing figure in Dutch politics. He has served in the House of Representatives since 1998, initially as a member of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) until he left the party in 2004 (Vossen, 2011, p. 184 ...
Minnesota politics: Previewing governor's race, Iran war impact | FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul
Political analyst Blois Olson takes a look ahead to what could be the most expensive legislative race in Minnesota history. He also examines how the war in Iran could impact voting choices in rural areas.
Minnesota politics: Previewing governor's race and Iran war impact | FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul
Political analyst Blois Olson takes a look ahead to what could be the most expensive legislative race in Minnesota history. He also examines how the war in Iran could impact voting choices in rural areas.
Fix, heal and rebuild: Wiener’s plan for Congress
The State Senator asks voters to look at his record when making a choice about who will be their next U.S. Representative.
Inside my $240-a-night room at theWit Chicago, a Hilton hotel
After spending one night at theWit, a Hilton hotel in Chicago, I think it's a top choice for luxury travelers on a budget.
Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME) Valuation Check As Options Volatility Climbs And Analyst Caution Grows
Recent trading in Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME) options has shown unusually high implied volatility. This points to expectations of sharp share price swings, while analyst sentiment on the stock and sector remains cautious. See our latest analysis for Tencent Music Entertainment Group. The latest share price of $9.36 sits against a 30 day share price return of 34.04% and a year to date share price return of 47.59%, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 21.48% contrasts...
At a mahjong table in Iowa, a struggle over which party to trust
Women courted in key races weigh their choices — and whether the president’s policies have delivered for a working-class town hit by tariffs, war and rising costs.
RFK Jr. Once Touted Raw Milk. Now He’s Stopped Talking About It.
The health secretary has instead promoted whole milk, a politically safer choice, as he seeks to avoid “weird stuff.”
A Look At Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE) Valuation After New Impossible Foods Partnership
Partnership with Impossible Foods puts food trends in focus for MSGE stock Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE) is in the spotlight after announcing a multiyear partnership with Impossible Foods that introduces a dedicated plant-based concession concept inside The Garden. The agreement ties Impossible Foods branding to New York Knicks and New York Rangers home games and expands plant-based menu options across concourses and premium areas, giving investors a fresh angle on how MSGE...
Assessing Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Valuation As Investors Revisit The Stock’s Recent Performance
Why Caesars Entertainment (CZR) is on investors’ radar Caesars Entertainment (CZR) has drawn attention after recent share price moves, with a 1 day gain of about 1.7% contrasting with a loss of roughly 7.5% over the past month. See our latest analysis for Caesars Entertainment. That short term 1 day and 7 day share price strength sits against a 30 day share price return of about an 8% decline, a 90 day gain of 9.1% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 6.1%. Longer term total shareholder...
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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