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Apple Was Caught Off Guard by MacBook Neo's 'Off the Charts' Demand
Apple's most affordable MacBook ever appears to be a resounding hit with customers, based on comments shared by CEO Tim Cook this week. On an earnings call on Thursday, Cook said that customer response to the MacBook Neo has been "off the charts" since the laptop was unveiled in March. "We could not be happier with how things are going at the moment," he said.
LA mattress store offers after hours sound baths, a wellness and business mixer
Car show, benefit golf tournament, sound bath and more events for your calendar this week
Looking for something to do?
Mental health series presented by MSPR and campus partners
Morehead State Public Radio, in collaboration with the Department of Sociology, Social Work & Criminology, Counseling & Health Services, and the JED Foundation, will present a five-part radio series throughout May 2026 in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month. The series, “Call to Mind,” is produced by American Public Media and hosted by veteran journalist Angela Davis. The hour-long programs feature sound-rich storytelling and expert insight, highlighting the experiences of individuals navigating mental health challenges and exploring ways to support well-being. You can listen to WMKY at 90.3FM at www.wmky.org, via a phone app, or by smart speaker (“Play WMKY”). For additional information, email Hitchcock at p.hitchc@moreheadstate.edu or call 606-783-2334.
Camera in iOS 27 to feature Siri mode with enhanced Visual Intelligence, per report
Apple is saving its big Siri upgrade for iOS 27’s reveal in June, and it sounds like one of the...
Scene Calendar: Harn exhibit on Florida, 'Million Dollar Quarter' at Hipp
Other local entertainment includes live music in the city of Alachua and at Heartwood Soundstage, and art at Santa Fe College and the GFAA.
Quixote to lay off 70 staffers, wind down most of its sound stage business in another blow to Hollywood
The Pixel 11's Tensor G6 chip is sounding a little underwhelming in latest leak
Just as feared, Google may be moving to an older GPU for the Tensor G6 chip that will power the Pixel 11 series.
Quixote to wind down most of its soundstage business in L.A.
In another sign of the industry's financial difficulties, production services vendor Quixote said it will close most of its soundstage business in Los Angeles.
Major Studio Services Provider Quixote Pivots From Atlanta
Quixote, owned by soundstage operator Hudson Pacific, is offering pink slips to 70 employees and is also winding down multiple leases in Los Angeles.
JENNIE: Psalms 100 Entertainment presents Pre-Mother’s Day Gospel Singing
AUGUSTA, Ga. (WJBF)– Sounds of joy will fill the air in Augusta, just in time for Mother’s Day! It’s a Pre-Mother’s Day Gospel Singing on Saturday, May 9th! Pslams 100 Enter…
Apple’s new MacBook Ultra could be exactly what I’ve been wanting
Apple’s MacBook Pro overhaul might actually be a new model: MacBook Ultra. Here’s why it sounds like the exact model I’ve been wanting.
"Super ZSNES" is a stab at a modern SNES emulator from the original developers
Upgrades to SNES graphics and sound go way beyond the typical screen filtering.
DJI Clears Out Mic 3 Wireless Microphone Bundle at Record Low With Charging Case Included, Ready for the Osmo Ecosystem
Add quality sound to your video content for less with this discounted DJI mic 3 bundle.
That ghostly presence may just be bad plumbing
Haunted, spooky feelings may come from odd sound frequencies.
Sound Smart: 5 Observations from the 2026 NFL Draft
Key insights in the wake of the 2026 NFL Draft, including a behind the scenes look at Ty Simpson's selection, the surprise pick of the year.
The Science of Spooky Sounds
The Science of Spooky Sounds: A conversation with a “pseudoscience” researcher about how infrasound could be linked to ghosts
Should TSSAA spring championships stay in one place? Nashville-area coaches sound off
Was moving track and field and tennis from TSSAA Spring Fling a good choice? Nashville-area coaches sound off.
Rodgers and Hammerstein, Lerner and Loewe musicals come to L.A.
Rodgers and Hammerstein's "Flower Drum Song" and "The Sound of Music" and Lerner and Loewe's "Brigadoon" are all running in L.A. this spring.
Political violence is 'unacceptable,' should 'never be tolerated' in US, Rep. Jason Smith says
Rep. Jason Smith, R-Mo., sounds off against political violence following the White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting and highlights the need for DHS funding on 'Sunday Morning Futures.'
Bosses don’t like the sound of a ‘four-day workweek’. Maybe it’s time to rebrand it
Some employers are reluctant to cut workers’ hours but pay them the same – but it just might be the future of work
Watch: President Trump speaks about shooting incident at correspondents' dinner
President Trump and several cabinet members were safely rushed from the event in Washington, D.C. after several loud sounds were heard. The Secret Service said one person was in custody.
Apple wanted to blow us away for the 20th anniversary of the iPhone, now it’s not so sure
The iPhone 20 Pro sounded so good. Now Apple might be forced to abandon the plan entirely.
BR Symphony to perform during planetarium show at La. Art and Science Museum
An upcoming event will give people the chance to hear the sounds of the Baton Rouge Symphony while also enjoying a planetarium show.
$25 for Audiophile Earbuds? Meet Panasonic's New ErgoFit USB-C Wired Buds
These Panasonic wired earbuds sound remarkably good for their low price and also work well for voice calls. They earn a CNET Editors' Choice award for being an excellent value.
Paul Chan on ICE Whistles and the Politics of Sound
Paul Chan writes on ICE alert whistles and the zine he produced to accompany them, linking grassroots warning systems to the politics of sound.
Feel Good Friday: Business Awards, Summer Camp, and Child Care Help
Small businesses get honored, a child care business comes to Tacoma, and more in this week's Feel Good Friday.
Nintendo releases Super Mario Galaxy 1 and 2 soundtracks on Spotify
Starting today, Super Mario Galaxy and Super Mario Galaxy music can be played on Spotify. Nintendo said that the music is being offered in celebration of Mario’s 40th anniversary. Between the two games, you can listen to 130 tracks, coming in at about five hours. Nintendo has long had a strange – or perhaps absent – relationship with the leading...
Michigan auto stakeholders sound alarm ahead of governor election
MichAuto is holding roundtables across the state to develop an automobility policy roadmap expected to be released ahead of the November election.
Citizen science helps ID elusive seabird, paves way for more citizen-backed discoveries
Vast online archives of photos, videos and sound recordings collected by the public are reshaping how scientists study the natural world, allowing researchers to answer questions that were once out of ...
New issue: Mirrorlife | BBC Science Focus Magazine
Mirror life could end all life on Earth. That sounds dramatic, but senior biologists have raised the alarm about experiments happening all around the world. It sounds like something in a Doctor Who plot, but no – mirror life is a real possibility. So why do scientists want to create something that’s potentially apocalyptic? Well, it could also have huge benefits (think back to splitting the atom). The first thing to say, however, is that mirror organisms are still a little way away yet – but only decades, not centuries. So far, scientists have only made mirror molecules, one of life’s building blocks. What for? Life works because its building blocks fit together. Imagine drilling a screw into a piece of wood. The screw cuts a hole with a thread that snugly matches its own. If, for some reason, the Doctor showed up and handed you a mirror version of the screw, its thread would be in reverse. It wouldn’t twist into the hole you’d just made as the threads wouldn’t match. That said, the mirror screw would still work; you’d just have to create a mirror hole for it. Mirror molecules, including DNA, work a bit like that. They follow the same principles as the biology around us, but they’re entirely incompatible with traditional biological functions. In medical terms, this means they’re effectively invisible to your body’s systems. Our biology doesn’t have the tools to recognise these molecules and break them apart. And if someone took these mirror molecules and put them together to make a cell and then an organism… you’d have mirror life. But we don't have any way of breaking it down. If it escaped the lab, we’d just have to hope it didn’t have an appetite.
'Catastrophic' | Ohio mental health providers sound alarm over CareSource Medicaid payment clawbacks
CareSource said such adjustments are standard when payment issues are discovered. But many behavioral health providers say the combination of rate cuts and retroactive clawbacks is unprecedented.
APM’s Gutknecht looks back on ESPN work ahead of NFL Draft
In advance of the NFL Draft, which APM Music will be soundtracking, APM VP/Sports Entertainment Matthew Gutknecht revisits some of the company’s high-profile work with ESPN.
8 Cool New Audio Gadgets To Upgrade Your Music Setup
From sleek DACs to clever wireless add-ons, these audio gadgets bring sharper detail and richer sound to your setup without major replacements.
Scene Calendar: 5th Avenue Arts Festival, live music at Heartwood
The 46th annual 5th Avenue Arts Festival will take place April 25-26. Ani DiFranco will perform at Heartwood Soundstage at 7 p.m. April 26
Stetson Bennett’s bid to succeed Matthew Stafford takes a hit
The Rams don't sound too convinced Stetson Bennett can takeover for Matthew Stafford.
NYC business group slams proposed second home tax and city's wasteful spending
Chartwell Strategy Group managing director Joe Borelli sounds the alarm on wasted school spending and the potential fallout from new NYC tax hikes on 'Varney & Co.'
Immigration and Kitchen Table Politics: Lessons from NJ-11
By: Nedia Morsy, Make the Road Action New Jersey, and Maegan Llerena, Make the Road Action As Analilia Mejia takes a victory lap in New Jersey’s 11th congressional district, her stunning win – first, a massive upset in February’s primary special election and then, a resounding win in this week’s general – can teach us[...]
The Closer: Computer Science Grad Takes Every Project to the Finish Line
Computer science student Ashley Baird is the kind of person who thrives on completing what she starts. Baird's drive to see things through resulted in a successful machine learning project for the U.S. Department of Defense and an internship at Nissan working on the team that developed an industry-first personalized sound app.
AI Gives 'Problematic' Health Advice Around Half The Time, Study Suggests
The most dangerous advice may sound most convincing.
AI Gives 'Problematic' Health Advice Around Half The Time, Study Suggests
The most dangerous advice may sound most convincing.
Minneapolis high school wrestling phenom Reymie Keenan also proving formidable in discus
A Minneapolis wrestler took home the girls state title two years in a row, and now they're using that dominant strength to find success in their spring sport.
Bill Maher, Woody Harrelson sound off on California business climate, say state deserves to be 's--- on'
Bill Maher and Woody Harrelson blast California on their podcast, saying the state's heavy taxes make their cannabis business hard to sustain.
Bill Maher, Woody Harrelson lament its 'not easy' to make a business work in California
Bill Maher and Woody Harrelson sounded off on California during "Club Random" on Monday, lamenting the difficulties of running a business in the liberal state.
Why Democrats with 2028 hopes are calling Lina Khan – and what she’s telling them about remaking the economy
Lina Khan is getting constant calls from Democrats, many of them thinking about presidential runs, to sound out problems and workshop potential solutions. That’s a shift from when she was Federal Trade Commission chair and some party leaders avoided meetings or events with her. Khan hasn’t changed so much as the world around her has. Many Americans are furious about rising costs, affordability, technological changes, and soaring profits for the rich. And President Donald Trump has maximized the levers of federal power in ways that were once considered off-limits in both parties. What Khan has in mind for the next Democrat in the White House isn’t a 1,000-page blueprint like the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025. It’s more of an overall strategy rooted in her specialty: excavating long-forgotten laws already on the books, then finding ways to apply them to 21st century companies.
Chargers GM drops huge update on injured duo
This sounds promising.
Editorial: Let’s get some ‘Pothole Politics’ here from Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s New York
Sewer socialism might not be as bad as it sounds.
Crosby's CEO explains why he interviews candidates on Sundays
Sunday interviews sound harsher, but in a more demanding hiring market, they can read as accommodation.
Think AI "knows" what it’s doing? Scientists say think again
Calling AI things like “smart” or saying it “knows” something might sound harmless, but it can quietly mislead people about what AI actually does. A new study shows that news writers are more careful than expected, rarely using strongly human-like language. When they do, it often falls on a spectrum—sometimes describing simple requirements, other times hinting at human traits.
Gavin Newsom chooses the wrong side of gender politics again
Sex changes for illegal immigrants might sound like a Republican ad, but it’s California policy.
Does your kid go nuts when you take away their screens? What to do next
Cutting your kids’ technology use sounds good — until the arguments begin. Dr. Michaeleen Doucleff walks parents through how they can achieve this “impossible” feat.
Does your kid go nuts when you take away their screens? What to do next
Cutting your kids’ technology use sounds good — until the arguments begin. Dr. Michaeleen Doucleff walks parents through how they can achieve this “impossible” feat.
Joe Flacco sounds off against NFL's plan for 18-game schedule: QB gives two reasons why expanding would be bad
The pushback against an 18-game NFL season has begun
Bears insider sounds off on potential trade for Dexter Lawrence
Chicago Bears beat writer Kevin Fishbain believes the team should definitely have a conversation about trading for Dexter Lawrence.
NSWCPD Applies AI and Machine Learning to Predictive Machinery Health
In a soundproof chamber at the Naval Surface Warfare Center, Philadelphia Division (NSWCPD), a steel-gray air compressor hums as engineers test an experimental machine learning model designed to detect early signs of failure through vibration analysis. The effort, part of NSWCPD’s growing portfolio of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) projects, shows early promise for potential future Navy use.
Why some tech leaders are sounding the alarm about Colorado’s ‘deteriorating’ business climate
Colorado enjoyed a reputation of being business-friendly in recent decades. But some in the business community worry that too much regulation is hurting the state’s ability to attract new companies. And they’re asking the governor for help.
Sonos Era 100 SL Review: A New Era Of Affordability
If you couldn't care less about voice assistants on home speakers, the Sonos Era 100 SL is a relatively affordable option that packs in great sound.
EXCLUSIVE - PlayStation's Fairgames is Also Preparing To Enter the Extraction Market
Haven Studios' upcoming multiplayer game, 'Fairgames', sounds like essentially just another extraction shooter.
Tigres beat Seattle, Concacaf Champions Cup semi-final set
Tigres advance to the Concacaf Champions Cup semifinals in a thrilling matchup that ended level with Seattle Sounders on aggregate (3-3). Guido Pizarro’s side took too many risks, because despite co...
LA hotel leaders warn Mayor Bass' $30 wage mandate is killing business ahead of World Cup, Olympics
Los Angeles hotels are "sounding alarm bells" over a $30-per-hour minimum wage law, according to an AHLA report citing reduced hiring and canceled investments.
Small business owners sound alarm on word that Hamilton County may sell Business Incubator
Small Business owners at the Hamilton County Business Development Center say they’re worried about the future of the facility as the County Commission is set to
Sony’s latest gaming headset offers great open-back audio
Stellar sound performance, if you don’t mind its lack of noise cancellation.
Physicists just witnessed pinpricks of darkness moving faster than the speed of light — without breaking the laws of relativity
For the first time, researchers measured singularities in combined light and sound waves moving faster than the speed of light. The findings have implications in fluid dynamics, optics and many other fields.
Xbox Game Pass ‘has become too expensive,’ says Microsoft’s new gaming chief in leaked memo
It sounds like Game Pass pricing will drop soon
The next MacBook Neo already sounds like a big upgrade for one reason
Last week a new report on the MacBook Neo’s success contained details on Apple’s plan for the next-gen Neo, which could be a big upgrade.
Where to invest $10,000 right now amid Iran war volatility: 9 market pros
We bring you the latest in our series on how to invest $10,000, with nine Wall Street pros sounding off on where they'd park a chunk of cash right now.
End of the Orban Era: The Party Is Just Starting for Hungarians
In the end, the biggest surprise wasn’t just how resoundingly Viktor Orban was ejected from power but how swiftly the Hungarian prime minister conceded the termination of his 16-year reign.
Live sound bath experience in Canandaigua helping people relax, relieve stress
The world can be a stressful place. For many, now so more than ever.
Why Did Gretchen Whitmer Go Soft on Trump?
The Michigan governor doesn’t sound like “Big Gretch” anymore.
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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