SCROLL NEWS / DISCOVERY
Search headlines
Find the stories shaping the conversation.
Results for " voting " 1,184 found 🔀 AI-powered Shuffle
Florida legislature approves new congressional map intended to boost Republicans in midterms
The vote came just two days after Gov. Ron DeSantis unveiled his proposal and the same day that the U.S. Supreme Court rolled back a key provision of the Voting Rights Act.
Supreme Court ruling on voting won't change California districts, but could hurt Democrats
The U.S. Supreme Court has narrowed the Voting Rights Act over the past decade. The law in California was primarily used to help Latinos gain political representation.
Supreme Court decision weakening Voting Rights Act could impact future political maps in Georgia
Republicans are calling for Georgia lawmakers to redraw political maps hours after a Supreme Court ruling diluted the 1965 Voting Rights Act.
Supreme Court Shakes Up U.S. Political Maps With Voting Rights Act Decision
Both parties are now scrambling to adjust to a new voting rights landscape.
Takeaways from the Supreme Court’s historic Voting Rights Act opinion and what’s next
The Supreme Court kicked yet another leg out from under the Voting Rights Act on Wednesday, the landmark 1965 civil rights law that Chief Justice John Roberts’ court has repeatedly undermined over the years.
Supreme Court ruling will reshape American politics. The only question is when
Supreme Court ruling guts voting rights protection, boosting GOP’s map power.
How the Voting Rights Act Helped Latinos in California
The federal law had been a “game changer” for Latino voters, but Wednesday’s ruling could weaken Asian Americans’ political power in the state.
What’s next for Louisiana’s Congressional maps after the Supreme Court’s Callais ruling?
With early voting set to begin Saturday, it was not immediately clear whether or how the ruling would affect the current election cycle.
Laura Coates: Supreme Court ruling makes Voting Rights Act ‘not just a toothless tiger, you’ve got no tiger’
The Supreme Court just issued the redistricting ruling DeSantis was waiting for
The Supreme Court dropped the decision Wednesday, just as Florida lawmakers were debating a new voting map.
Supreme Court limits Voting Rights Act in setback for Black Democrats
The Supreme Court retreats from 1986 rules that called for electing Blacks and Latinos to Congress and state and local boards.
Supreme Court limits key provision of the landmark Voting Rights Act
The decision could touch off a scramble by Republicans to redraw minority-majority congressional districts, especially in the South, that could cost many Black Democrats their seats.
What's on the Ohio ballot for the May 5 primary election?
Ohio voters face big choices May 5 with races for governor, U.S. Senate, attorney general, treasurer, secretary of state and the state Supreme Court.
Leaked records show Democrats lined up behind UM board challenger
Internal voting records obtained by The News show big support for Amir Makled, who faced criticism for a series of deleted social media posts.
Thousands of Appalachian voters flip from Democrat to Republican, narrowing registration lead
A wave of party switching in West Virginia has reshaped voter rolls, with over 68,000 voters changing affiliation ahead of the state's 2024 primary.
GOP wants Knox County commissioner prosecuted for voting in their primary
Republicans are asking the DA to look into whether Courtney Durrett's ballot choice was an \
DOJ charges suspect in White House Correspondents’ Dinner shooting
The Justice Department has charged 31-year-old Cole Allen with trying to assassinate President Trump during the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner Saturday. We discuss what we know about Allen and how Trump responded to Saturday’s shooting.This episode: voting correspondent Miles Parks, justice correspondent Ryan Lucas, and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.This podcast was produced by Casey Morell and Bria Suggs, and edited by Rachel Baye.Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.
The US has a long history of changing voting districts for political reasons. Is it legal?
Under the US Constitution, political gerrymandering isn't illegal.
Supreme Court formally reinstates pro-Republican Texas voting map
The move by the court, which has a 6-3 conservative majority, formalizes an interim decision it made in December to revive the map of U.S. House districts in Texas.
Voters contend with ‘grotesque’ leaflets and ‘dodgy’ data in English elections
Exclusive: Investigation into campaigning materials for local polls in May challenges tactical voting claims
How to update your political party affiliation ahead of Oregon primary
April 28 is the deadline to update your party affiliation in Oregon ahead of the May 19 primary.
Should Flutter’s Shift to U.S.-Style Governance and Blank-Check Preferred Shares Require Action From Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) Investors?
At its 2026 Annual General Meeting on May 29, held in the past relative to today, Flutter Entertainment plc approved amendments to its Memorandum and Articles of Association to align governance with common U.S. public company practices, including plurality voting in contested director elections, flexible board size, and the ability to issue blank-check preferred shares. An important implication is Flutter’s move to formalize its status as a U.S. domestic issuer under the Securities Exchange...
Who are the candidates running for Oregon House District 18?
Rep. Rick Lewis, R-Silverton, is retiring. Five Republicans filed for the seat. Here's what to know about the candidates.
Voter ID initiative qualifies for California's November election
California makes it easy to vote, with mail-in ballots and registration at the DMV. An upcoming ballot measure would add new voter ID requirements compelling people to prove their citizenship before they cast a ballot.
Maine’s transgender sports referendum is on the verge of dropping off the ballot
The referendum has enough signatures to qualify for the November ballot, but the margin is tight with more challenges pending.
Popular pasta sauce brand is launching new device to record conversations
Prego is pivoting to…surveillance? The popular pasta sauce brand announced it’s launching a new device that records your family’s dinner conversations. KTLA’s Andy Riesmeyer has m…
Gerrymandering has a long history in US politics
Gerrymandering is proliferating in states across the U.S. Republicans and Democrats alike have been redrawing voting districts for the U.S.
Candidates pitch economic ideas, youth retention at ‘Voting For Business’ forum
WHEELING — Local candidates seeking seats in the West Virginia Legislature provided their thoughts Thursday night on how best to attract jobs to the Mountain State while also providing opportunities for youth to remain in the state. The Wheeling Area Chamber of Commerce, along with Regional Economic Development (RED) and WTOV-TV, sponsored the “Voting For […]
Dallas County Republican Party sues over precinct-based voting
The lawsuit is asking that a judge force the county to conduct the May 26 runoff election using precinct-based voting.
Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
Supreme Court’s high-stakes term could reshape presidential power, immigration, voting rights
The Supreme Court’s term is packed — birthright citizenship, presidential removals, voting rules, transgender sports and more. Constitutional law expert Rod Sullivan joins News4JAX anchor Bruce Hamilton on this week’s episode of Politics & Power to discuss what’s at stake and why it matters to you.
Virginia voters to decide whether to allow a new Democratic-drawn map for the midterms
A constitutional amendment is on the ballot Tuesday that would pave the way for Democrats to enact a congressional map that’s designed to net them up to four seats.
Conservative Alaska lawmaker tells GOP to stop ‘political games’ after being criticized for voting bill
Gov. Mike Dunleavy has until the end of the month to decide whether to allow a sweeping voting bill to become law.
Inside Iowa Politics: Why Iowa’s secretary of state doesn’t want big election changes
Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate is not looking for major changes to election laws, despite an executive order from President Donald Trump that could force significant alterations to the voting process.
Inside Iowa Politics: Why Iowa’s secretary of state doesn’t want big election changes
Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate is not looking for major changes to election laws, despite an executive order from President Donald Trump that could force significant alterations to the voting process.
Inside Iowa Politics: Why Iowa’s secretary of state doesn’t want big election changes
Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate is not looking for major changes to election laws, despite an executive order from President Donald Trump that could force significant alterations to the voting process.
America’s health care crisis continues to add insult to injury
We need to demand that our leaders in Augusta and Washington commit, beyond just expression of “concerns,” to voting to improve, not dismantle, our health care system.
Voting rights are health rights. That's why California must reject the SAVE Act
People of color, naturalized citizens, and low-income voters are less likely to have birth certificates, passports, or other ID that the SAVE Act would require.
Vote for Week 4 Delaware HS Athlete of the Week, presented by Delaware Orthopaedic Specialists
Voting is free on Delaware Online. The winner will be announced on April 23.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Wemby, Jokic finalists for NBA MVP
Reigning NBA Most Valuable Player Shai Gilgeous-Alexander headlines the finalists announced Sunday for this year's award alongside San Antonio Spurs star Victor Wembanyama and Denver's three-time MVP Nikola Jokic.Gilgeous-Alexander, who beat out Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo in the voting last year and was also named NBA Finals MVP as the Thunder beat Indiana for the trophy, averaged more than 30 points per game this season.
AI swarms could hijack democracy without anyone noticing
AI-powered personas are becoming so realistic that they can infiltrate online communities and subtly steer public opinion. Unlike traditional bots, they adapt, coordinate, and refine their messaging at a massive scale, creating a false sense of consensus. Early warning signs—like deepfakes and fake news networks—have already appeared in global elections. Researchers warn that the next election could be the true test of this technology’s power.
Michigan attorney general rejects Trump administration ballot request amid broader push to challenge elections
Michigan’s attorney general is rejecting an effort by the US Justice Department to obtain ballots and other voting materials from the Detroit area, a target of the Trump administration’s efforts to probe elections in states that the president falsely claims he won in 2020.
From the Epstein files to ousting colleagues, women in Congress are flexing their power
From voting to release the Epstein files to forcing out two congressmen, female lawmakers keep overpowering the men in charge of Congress.
Judge sides with Arizona election official in ruling that could affect midterms voting
The top election official in Arizona's most populous county will get more authority in running elections after a judge sided with his office in a prolonged legal fight with the local board that shares responsibility for overseeing the vote.
Former Wisconsin man sentenced to 20 months in federal prison for illegal campaign contributions
A federal judge has sentenced a former Wisconsin man to 20 months in prison for making campaign contributions after renouncing his U.S. citizenship | 1010 WINS
New study finds 12- to 17-year-olds willing to engage in democracy, but feel anxious, unheard, distrustful of politics
A major new U.K. study of 12- to 17-year-olds finds that, while most adolescents say they would vote and are interested in politics, their willingness to engage is linked to their anxiety about the future, ...
Dallas County GOP Chair Allen West resigns amid push for his removal
His resignation comes after he made a controversial decision among his party to return to countywide voting for the May 26 runoff.
Shoe company Allbirds pivots to AI
In a surprising move, the shoe company Allbirds is fleeing the footwear business and pivoting to AI. The company announced it is changing its name to “NewBird AI” and struck a $50 million agreement to fund the new venture.
Civic belonging in the social media era
Gen Z is politically aware online, but this doesn't always translate to real-world engagement or voting, leading to burnout and fear.
Spanberger's 'unconstitutional' push to redefine presidential elections makes voters 'NULL AND VOID': critics
Virginia joins the national popular vote compact as Gov. Spanberger signs bill awarding electoral votes to the national popular vote winner.
No Other Pub nominated for Best Local Sports Bar in America in USA TODAY Sports Readers' Choice Awards
No Other Pub in the Kansas City Power & Light District is one of 20 finalists nationwide for Best Local Sports Bar in the USA TODAY Sports Readers' Choice Awards 2026 as nominated by an expert panel. Voting is open until 11 a.m. CT on Monday, May 11 and sports
NEPAL: ‘Voting on Discord was a very Gen Z way of doing politics’
CIVICUS discusses Gen Z-led protests in Nepal with Abhijeet Adhikari (Abhi), a lawyer and political activist who took part in the protests.
Postal Service union launches ad campaign promoting mail voting as Trump seeks to limit it
The 30-second message features a variety of voters, among them a busy farmer and a flight attendant, explaining why they cast their ballots by mail.
Postal Service union launches ad campaign promoting mail voting
The 30-second union ad features voters explaining why they vote by mail and will start airing in Ohio this week
USA TODAY Sports launches inaugural Readers' Choice Awards
USA TODAY Sports Readers' Choice Awards voting is open. Cast your vote for best NFL cities, college baseball stadiums, and sports bars.
USA TODAY Sports launches inaugural Readers' Choice Awards
USA TODAY Sports Readers' Choice Awards voting is open. Cast your vote for best NFL cities, college baseball stadiums, and sports bars.
OpenAI is pivoting to…socialism?
The AI company just released a set of oddly left-wing — and wildly hypocritical — policy ideas.
Early voting begins this week. What positions are on the ballot?
Shelby County will effectively have a new set of elected officials after the election; many current representatives are term-limited or seeking other offices.
Minnesota politics: Previewing governor's race, Iran war impact | FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul
Political analyst Blois Olson takes a look ahead to what could be the most expensive legislative race in Minnesota history. He also examines how the war in Iran could impact voting choices in rural areas.
Calls grow for Rep. Swalwell to resign or be expelled over misconduct claims
Several Democratic and Republican lawmakers said they would be in favor of voting to expel Swalwell, as well as Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), who both face misconduct allegations.
Minnesota politics: Previewing governor's race and Iran war impact | FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul
Political analyst Blois Olson takes a look ahead to what could be the most expensive legislative race in Minnesota history. He also examines how the war in Iran could impact voting choices in rural areas.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
‘We need new blood’: Texas voters look for leadership changes, fresh faces this election year
Some vocal Texas voters say they want to get rid of politicians who've served the state for decades. Much of that sentiment can be boiled down to a preference for younger candidates with new energy — or even older ones who buck long-held status quo.
Victor Wembanyama's extreme ceiling: How end-of-season awards voting could be an indicator of historic success
I swore an oath to the Constitution, not a political party
This solution in search of a problem will come at great cost; closed primaries will cost the state more than $135 million over 10 years, according to the Secretary of State’s estimate.
A GOP-aligned group is using Klan imagery to target Black voters
Polling and early voting so far suggest a close contest - prompting both sides of the redistricting campaign to pour in tens of millions of dollars.
L.A. election shadow hearing: Democrats, experts defend voting systems
House Democrats gathered in Los Angeles on Tuesday for a "shadow hearing" on midterm election security, where experts echoed their arguments that state-run elections are safe and secure.
What to watch for in Georgia and Wisconsin tonight: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Trump's escalating threats against Iran are drawing blowback from some corners of MAGA world.
Dallas County GOP chair's precinct reversal brings turmoil in party
The GOP will vote April 20 on whether to oust West as chair after he broke from the group’s earlier agreement to hold precinct-based voting for this year’s primary and runoff election days.
Voters may see unfamiliar names on their primary ballots. Here's why
As early voting starts, some voters may find themselves in a new congressional district.
Election Day set for Plant City, Polk County; View candidate and voting info
Polls will be open Tuesday from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Apopka Mayor early voting starts this week as more personal accusations fly
Here's how to vote early in the heated Apopka Mayor runoff election.
Why the controversy with mail-in ballots?
Most Coloradans enjoy the right to vote “by mail” at election time. Most Americans favor this process. But U.S. President Donald Trump is trying to federalize (nationalize) this practice and shift the supervision of voting from county clerks to the Department of Homeland Security and the U.S. Postal Service. He issued an executive order to […]
How many people have voted early so far in Wisconsin's 2026 spring election?
Early voting turnout in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race
Who are the kings being crowned here in Colorado?
Though most of us celebrate “No Kings Day” on July 4, the Trump-deranged got a head start last weekend with rallies around the state. Attendees bravely fought oppression by blocking traffic for people with jobs. Rally-goers demanded freedom from tyranny, many right after voting to ban all but beige house paint at their HOA meetings. […]
This Week in Politics: Early voting starts this week in New Jersey's special congressional election | WNYC | New York Public Radio, Podcasts, Live Streaming Radio, News
The political world is paying close attention to a race to fill Governor Sherrill's vacated congressional seat.
House Democrats to hold California 'shadow hearings' on midterm election security
House Democrats will hold informal hearings in California on midterm election security, following multiple threats of intervention in state-run voting by the Trump administration.
N.Y. attorney general, other AGs sue over Trump mail-in voting executive order
It calls for the Social Security Administration to prepare a list of verified eligible voters and requires absentee ballots to only be sent to each state's approved list.
Hoosiers identifying as Christian nationalists increasing ahead of primary election
As early voting begins in Indiana’s primary election, new survey data shows support for Christian nationalism is not just holding steady—it is growing in the state.
Voting by mail in midterms? Democrats' suit could impact how it works
A coalition of Democrat-led states filed yet another court challenge to President Donald Trump's executive order restricting mail-in voting.
Georgia lawmakers fail to settle voting machines conflict before end of annual session
The Georgia General Assembly ended its annual session early Friday without a plan for new equipment to overhaul the state's voting system by a July deadline, plunging into doubt the future of elections in the political battleground.
Colorado sues Trump administration, calling new election order ‘unconstitutional’
Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser has joined a multistate coalition suing President Donald Trump over a new executive order on elections, arguing the directive unlawfully intrudes on states’ authority to run their own voting systems and threatens access to mail ballots for millions of voters. The lawsuit argues that Trump’s executive order is unconstitutional because […]
WA to sue Trump over national voting list, vote-by-mail restrictions
The lawsuit argues that the Constitution places states in charge of administering elections and says Trump's order violates the separation of powers.
Politics Friday: 3 congressional candidates vying for their party's endorsement
Friday at noon, a check-in on the only Minnesota congressional race guaranteed to send a new person to Washington. MPR News politics editor Brian Bakst speaks with three candidates seeking to represent the 2nd Congressional District.
Oregon sues to challenge Trump’s executive order restricting mail-in voting
If the order were to stand, it would have significant impacts on Oregon’s pioneering vote-by-mail system.
Georgia Lawmakers End Annual Session Without Settling Conflict on Voting Machines
ATLANTA (AP) — The Georgia General Assembly ended its annual session early Friday without a plan for new equipment to overhaul the state's voting system by a July deadline, plunging into doubt the future of elections in the political battleground. The lawmakers' failure to offer a solution after ...
Democrats sue to block Trump's executive order targeting mail ballots
Democrats sued Wednesday to block President Donald Trump's latest executive order restricting mail voting, arguing that the U.S. Constitution empowers states and Congress, not the president, to determine who is eligible to vote by mail. The lawsuit marks the second round of battles over the president's power to control elections. Trump's opponents handily won the first round last year, blocking his initial executive order intended to reshape election procedures by convincing multiple federal judges that
Tina Peters, Colorado Election Denier, Has Prison Sentence Overturned
Ms. Peters, a former county clerk, received a nine-year sentence after being convicted of tampering with voting machines. An appeals court overturned the sentence but did not immediately free her from prison.
Maine high court hears ranked choice voting arguments
In 2017, the justices “concluded that ranked-choice voting was inconsistent with the constitutional requirement that the winners of those elections must be determined by ‘a plurality of’ all votes returned,” according to the AG’s office.
Democrats sue to block Trump's executive order targeting mail ballots
Democrats have sued to block President Donald Trump’s latest executive order restricting mail voting
Super Mario Bros. Speedrunner Lays Out Claims Of Sabotage
Speedrun.com suddenly banned his preferred input method after voting to allow it just four months prior
Colorado leaders say Trump’s executive order targeting mail voting violates state election authority
Colorado leaders swiftly condemned President Donald Trump’s new executive order issued Tuesday, arguing that its creation of a national voter‑eligibility list and new limits on mail voting violate states’ constitutional authority to run their own elections. Jefferson County Clerk Amanda Gonzalez called the order another attack on Americans’ access to the ballot but was confident […]
WA eyes legal challenge to Trump’s mail-in voting executive order
Washington state leaders argue Trump's latest order infringes on state's constitutional right to administer elections.
CO Secy. of State warns Trump is attempting to “unconstitutionally take control” with new mail-in voting executive order
Trump Signs Order Seeking Federal Control of Mail Voting as He Promotes False Claims
Election experts and Democratic officials called the order legally invalid, and Arizona and Oregon pledged to immediately challenge it in court.
Trump signs executive order limiting mail-in ballots; California leaders say they'll fight
President Trump signed an executive order Tuesday purporting to place new federal controls on voting by mail in states such as California.
WATCH: Trump signs executive order to create national list of eligible voters
President Donald Trump on Tuesday signed an executive order to create a nationwide list of verified eligible voters, a move that is sure to draw legal challenges as the president continues to demand further restrictions on voting ahead of this year's midterm elections.
Trump signs order asserting federal control of mail-in ballots
Trump has suggested for months that the federal government could nationalize the voting process, generating bipartisan pushback.
Trump signs executive order to crack down on mail-in voting
President Donald Trump on Tuesday signed an executive order that the White House says is aimed at cracking down on mail-in voting.