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GOP Money vs. $5 Gas: What Will Matter More in the Midterms?
GOP groups are spending big as rising gas prices fuel Republicans’ panic ahead of the midterms.
Jürgen Klopp’s leaked email reveals message to former Germany internationals
Ahead of his debut as Germany head coach against the Netherlands on Thursday, Jürgen Klopp has reportedly sent an email to all former Germany internationals, asking for their support.“I would be ve...
Jiang Feng: The Unravelling of German & European Politics
A state election in eastern Germany has become a revealing test of the changing political landscapes of Germany and Europe, writes Jiang Feng, Professor and Chairman of the Council of the Shanghai Academy of Global Governance and Area Studies (SAGGAS) at Shanghai International Studies University. His analysis follows the decisive victory of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) (which has been classified as right-wing extremist by German authorities)in the state of Saxony-Anhalt on 6 September, in which it finished far ahead of its mainstream rivals. Jiang previously served as Minister-Counsellor at the Chinese Embassy in Berlin. The following article was published on 8 September 2026 on huanqiu.com, the online platform of the Global Times. On 6 September, the results of the state election in Saxony-Anhalt, Germany, were announced. The Alternative for Germany (AfD), classified as far-right by German authorities, made history by becoming the largest party in the state parliament, winning 43.8 per cent of the vote — twice its share in the previous election. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which had governed the state continuously for 24 years, won just 17.2 per cent, its worst result ever in Saxony-Anhalt. On the night the results were announced, the atmosphere at the CDU gathering was unusually calm. There was neither shock nor argument, as if the defeat had long been expected. Several veteran party members who had spent years working in the state government said: “Defeat is not a bad thing. It is time to make changes.” This state election has not only upended Saxony-Anhalt’s political landscape, but also laid bare the deep tensions between Germany’s traditional party structure and model of governance, on the one hand, and an increasingly polarised society on the other. Its repercussions are already being felt at the federal level, making Saxony-Anhalt a useful case study of the broader trend towards political polarisation and realignment in Europe. Governing Difficulties after Electoral Victory The most immediate consequence of the election is a historic setback for the mainstream party order that took shape in post-war Germany. In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD has leapt from a peripheral party to the largest political force in the state. Its electoral base has expanded beyond the traditional category of “marginal protest voters” to take on the characteristics of a cross-class coalition. The party has not only consolidated its support in rural areas, but also attracted many middle-class voters and even members of the social elite with stable jobs, their own homes, and substantial incomes. It has thus evolved from a “protest party” into one with the potential to govern. Despite its commanding lead in the vote, however, the AfD faces an institutional obstacle to governing the state: the mainstream parties’ long-standing “firewall” against it. Neither of the two potential routes to forming a government appears likely to break the current political deadlock. The first would be a coalition of establishment parties, led by the CDU and bringing together the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, the Left Party (Die Linke) and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) in a cross-camp government. In terms of parliamentary arithmetic, such a coalition could prevent the AfD from forming a government and preserve the outward stability of the traditional political order. Yet these parties are fundamentally divided over key issues including immigration, the energy transition, economic management, and cultural and education policy. Coalition negotiations would therefore be extremely difficult, and even if a government could be formed, it would most likely prove short-lived. More importantly, an alliance of establishment parties aimed at keeping the largest party out of government would play directly into the AfD’s narrative that “political elites are suppressing public opinion”. It could deepen perceptions of political unfairness, further strengthening the AfD’s political capital, and creating a dynamic in which “the more it is suppressed, the more people vote for it”. Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD’s candidate for state premier, has said that if efforts to form a government fail because other parties refuse to cooperate, the AfD will push for a fresh election, which he believes could deliver the party an absolute majority of seats. This points to more intense political battles ahead. The second option would be a coalition between the AfD and the BSW. Together, the two parties would command a simple majority in parliament, making this, on paper, the quickest route to forming a government. The BSW is the only elected party that has not ruled out cooperation with the AfD, and the two parties share some common ground, including on policy towards Russia. There is therefore a degree of political basis for cooperation. Were such a coalition to materialise, Germany would see its first state government jointly formed by a party defined as far-right and one with a far-left background, creating what might be called a “bipolar anti-establishment alliance”. Such an outcome would fundamentally break with the ideological boundaries of post-war German party politics. It is worth noting that even if the AfD ultimately fails to enter the state government, its roughly 47 per cent share of parliamentary seats would give it a powerful blocking minority. Without its consent, major decisions requiring a two-thirds majority — including constitutional amendments, significant budgetary adjustments, and state-level institutional reforms — would be extremely difficult to pass. Therefore, whoever ultimately forms the government, the AfD will be an unavoidable force in Saxony-Anhalt politics, with a direct influence on the state’s legislative process. Systemic Failures in Germany’s Governance Model The Saxony-Anhalt election result reflects a systemic failure of Germany’s post-war mainstream-party model of governance to adapt to rapidly changing socioeconomic conditions. It stems from multiple, mutually reinforcing structural tensions and highlights the existing political system’s difficulty in adapting to “an increasingly polarised society First, collective anxiety has replaced individual material hardship as a central driver of political mobilisation. The rise of the AfD can no longer be explained simply by poverty or social marginalisation. Its increasingly cross-class electoral base suggests that what is driving voters towards the party is, above all, concern about the broader direction of society. This anxiety about the future of the political community goes beyond individual gains and losses. In political discourse, economic anxiety has become closely intertwined with immigration, while immigration and refugee issues are, in essence, questions of social fairness. This perception turns conflicts over the distribution of social resources into negative assessments of governing parties, providing a broad social basis for far-right political narratives. Second, regional disparities and East German identity have undermined the strategy of addressing eastern Germany’s structural challenges at the regional level. More than three decades after German reunification, eastern states such as Saxony-Anhalt have experienced periods of economic growth, but their underlying economic structures remain weak, and household incomes and wealth remain significantly below those in western Germany. At the same time, they continue to face population outflow, an ageing population, labour shortages, and other structural challenges. At a deeper level, historical experiences — including the collapse of the former East German economic system, mass unemployment during the transition, and the westward shift of decision-making power over major issues — have left some residents with a sense of being “second-class citizens” and of being excluded. For years, the German government treated the “syndrome” of reunification as a regional problem to be gradually addressed at the local level. That approach is becoming increasingly unsustainable, as regional development disparities emerge as a core structural factor shaping national politics. Third, the erosion of institutional trust is perhaps the most decisive factor. AfD supporters tend to distrust establishment institutions, including parliament, government, and the mainstream media. Their concerns about economic security, pensions, and social fairness are significantly greater than the social average. Increasingly, their support for the AfD reflects not an expectation that the existing system can be improved, but a search for an alternative to the current political order. Such a systemic deficit of trust will be extremely difficult for the traditional parties to repair in the short term. Fourth, a generational shift in political mobilisation has amplified political polarisation. Unlike traditional parties, which rely heavily on offline rallies and mainstream media coverage, the AfD has developed a social-media mobilisation strategy built around “raising an issue — identifying who is responsible — offering a simplified solution — building a shared identity”. It turns complex social tensions into concise political narratives, rapidly channelling public sentiment into political support. The contrast on the eve of the election was particularly telling. The establishment parties, together with trade unions and churches, organised an offline march attended by more than 10,000 people, but its reach was largely confined to those present and to traditional media coverage. The AfD held a much smaller indoor event, yet livestreaming on TikTok, YouTube, and other platforms, combined with the involvement of online influencers, gave it a reach and mobilising capacity far beyond that of the march. The contrast illustrates how the traditional parties’ methods of political mobilisation are increasingly struggling to keep pace with a political environment transformed by changes in media technology. A Microcosm of Structural Political Change in Europe The shockwaves from the Saxony-Anhalt election quickly travelled beyond the state to the federal level. Calls for political accountability followed immediately after the results were announced. The governing CDU and SPD are now under enormous pressure, while Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil face an unprecedented test. Political polarisation in Germany is no longer simply a regional phenomenon. The post-war model of multiparty government by establishment parties is breaking down and being reshaped. Viewed in a broader European context, the Saxony-Anhalt election is part of a continent-wide wave of party polarisation, mainstream-party decline, and rising right-wing forces. Far from an isolated phenomenon, it is a microcosm of the structural political changes unfolding across Europe. Weak economic growth, cultural tensions over immigration, and declining trust in institutions are fuelling the rise of right-wing forces in several countries, challenging the liberal internationalist order established in post-war Europe. As a core member state of the European Union, Germany’s ability to adapt its political system and the direction of its politics will have profound implications for both European integration and the evolution of the international order. Subscribe [ Pekingnology China’s Germany watchers take stock of Berlin’s uneasy turn On 7 December 2025, nearly 50 Chinese scholars and policy researchers gathered in Beijing for the 2025年德国形势年终研讨会 “2025 Year-End Seminar on the Situation in Germany… Read more 9 months ago · 31 likes · 1 comment · YIRUI LI and Yuxuan JIA ](https://www.pekingnology.com/p/chinas-germany-watchers-take-stock?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web&embedding_publication_id=1151841) [ Jiang Feng on Germany's 2025 and beyond: no easy exit ](https://www.eastisread.com/p/jiang-feng-on-germanys-2025-and-beyond) Yirui LI and Yuxuan JIA · Jan 24 The following is an op-ed by Jiang Feng, published on 29 December 2025 at Shanghai Observer 上观新闻, the digital platform of Jiefang Daily, the official newspaper of the Shanghai Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC). [ Read full story ](https://www.eastisread.com/p/jiang-feng-on-germanys-2025-and-beyond)
Five Burning Questions Surrounding Michigan Football Ahead Of Iowa Game
Michigan is 3-0 and back in the top 25 after some ups and downs and because of the rollercoaster ride, there are plenty of questions surrounding the Wolverines ahead of Big Ten play.
Saginaw town hall tackles voting questions ahead of midterms
A Saginaw voting rights town hall brought together state and local election officials to answer residents’ questions about how the election system works, with organizers emphasizing ballot deadlines, absentee voting
Best Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups After Week 2
Need help attacking the waiver wire ahead of Week 3? Click here for The Sporting News' waiver wire report.
11 Packers Appear on Week 3 Injury Report vs. Falcons
A grueling short week looms as star wideout Jayden Reed and 10 other Green Bay Packers race against the clock ahead of Week 3.
Fastly Inc. (FSLY) Jumps 15% Ahead of Tuesday’s Key Business Updates; Hedge Fund Conviction Weak
Fastly Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLY) climbed by 14.92 percent on Monday to end at $27.42 apiece as investors began positioning portfolios ahead of key business updates at its Investor Day meeting tomorrow, September 22. The rally was supported by earlier warnings from Anthropic Chief Executive Officer Dario Amodei that development of artificial intelligence must slow down and […]
Oil rises slightly ahead of potential US-Iran talks
Oil prices gained on Tuesday as the market steadied after several days of declines, with investors awaiting developments on potential US-Iran talks at the United Nations General Assembly this week.
Vikings Hot Start Earns Major Recognition From FOX Sports
The Minnesota Vikings came in at the third spot on Fox’s NFL Power Rankings on Monday afternoon. The outlet put the rankings on social media.The Buffalo Bills and Seattle Seahawks were the two teams ahead of the Vikings. In the meantime, the team has a ton of momentum after beating the Chicago Bears by a […] The post Vikings Hot Start Earns Major Recognition From FOX Sports appeared first on HEAVY.
Week 2 inactives for Giants
Giants announced seven inactives ahead of Week 2 game
Detroit Tigers Announce Sudden Max Clark Move Before Nationals Series
The Detroit Tigers were officially eliminated from the postseason over the weekend after making it in each of the last two seasons.It was simply an underwhelming 2026 campaign for them, and on Monday night, they’ll begin a series against the Washington Nationals as they wind down the regular season.Ahead of the matchup, Tigers manager A.J. […] The post Detroit Tigers Announce Sudden Max Clark Move Before Nationals Series appeared first on HEAVY.
Covenant Health doctor providing tips to stay healthy ahead of flu season
Flu season usually starts in October, and with cases already starting to pop up across the United States, healthcare professionals are making sure everyone prepares ahead of time.
Tulane Football Seeks First Complete Game Against Southern Miss
The Tulane Green Wave have yet to put it all together in one game, and that'll be an important thing to display ahead of conference play.
Washington Wizards Announce 2026 Open Practice Details
The Washington Wizards have finalized details for its annual fan open practice ahead of the 2026-27 preseason
The UNC Sports Week Ahead: September 21st-27th
A quick update on the Tar Heels in action this week
Rockstar Games' New Modding Policy Crushes Influencers' Dreams for Monetized GTA 6 RP Servers
Rockstar Games has outlined its policy for modding ahead of Grand Theft Auto 6's release, and it may crush the dreams of some would-be entrepreneurs.
Matt Rhule looks ahead to Michigan State, reviews non-conference play
The non-conference slate has officially wrapped up; now Nebraska will begin conference play with a trip to East Lansing to face Michigan State (2-1) on Saturday, Sept. 26.
Pat Fitzgerald previews MSU's matchup with Nebraska
See what Pat Fitzgerald said after wrapping up Notre Dame week, and turning ahead to Nebraska.
USA TODAY Sports Network Week 4 HBCU football rankings
Check out the USA Today Sports Network latest HBCU football power rankings ahead of Week 4.
WAMU's Week Ahead: Postpartum mental health, week two of the Trayon White trial, National Museum of African American History's 10-year anniversary
This week WAMU will be checking in on what resources there are for mothers experiencing postpartum mental illness, the second week of D.C. Councilmember Trayon White's federal bribery trial and what the National Museum of African American History and Culture is cooking up for its 10th anniversary celebrations.
As Global Pandemic Approach Flounders, Experts Offer Blueprint To Protect All Citizens
It’s been barely three years since the COVID-19 pandemic ended, yet many world leaders appear to have little appetite for pandemic-proofing. Ahead of the UN
Kyle Whittingham gives latest on key Michigan injuries before Iowa
Michigan football faces injury concerns for key players like Jordan Marshall ahead of the upcoming Iowa game.
Minecraft Dungeons II gets time-limited reward ahead of launch next week
Ahead of Minecraft Dungeons II's launch on September 29, fans can unlock a unique Corrupted Creeper Cape for the game via a limited-time event.
Motorola teases high-end ‘Signature 27’ with a wild-looking design
A new teaser shows off the wild-looking design of the Motorola "Signature 27" ahead of more details to come.
‘Stuff The British Stole’ Producer WildBear Entertainment Reshuffles Top Team To “Get Ahead” Of Industry Transformation
EXCLUSIVE: Australian factual producer WildBear Entertainment has unveiled a new look for its management team amid “the biggest transformation we’ve seen in decades” for the entertainment industry. A ...
St. Johns County adds hospital and medical offerings as region continues to grow
UF Health and Baptist Health will open hospitals and medical facilities next week, with more expansion ahead for those systems and other healthcare companies.
Marseille and Bruno Genesio make unwanted history
Olympique de Marseille head into the international break in the relegation zone, only one point ahead of bottom side Le Havre AC. It all began with promise at the Vélodrome back in August, with a 4-0...
iPhone 20 Pro Display Sizes Leak Ahead of 2027 Launch
Apple's 20th-anniversary iPhone lineup could feature slightly larger displays than the iPhone 18 Pro models, if a new leak shared on Weibo is accurate. Prolific Chinese leaker Digital Chat Station claims that early iPhone 20 Pro display specifications include a 6.41-inch screen with a resolution of approximately 2,686 × 1,236 pixels, while the iPhone 20 Pro Max is said to have a 6.96-inch display with a resolution of around 2,912 × 1,340 pixels.
Fort Bliss celebrates Oktoberfest weekend
EL PASO, Texas (KVIA) -- Fort Bliss brought a taste of Germany to the Borderland over the weekend with its annual Oktoberfest celebration at Biggs Park. Monica Thomas, marketing manager for Fort Bliss MWR, joined us on the Noon show ahead of the three-day celebration to discuss what visitors could expect. The event featured German
Crime writer Kellye Garrett brings latest book to Coe series
Explore “Missing White Woman,” the latest suspense thriller by crime fiction author and former “Cold Case” writer Kellye Garrett, ahead of her talk at Coe College in Cedar Rapids.
Johnsonville Sausage Makes Its Case for Dinner Running in Political Parody Twist
Little Black Book, Campaign directed by Jordan Brady through True Gent puts a parody twist on the political ad blitz consuming Americans ahead of the midterms
Getting nonstop political texts? Here’s what you can do to stop them
Political campaigns and pollsters can fill your inbox ahead of an election. Here’s what federal and Ohio guidance says about opting out, blocking and reporting unwanted texts.
Brevard County high school sports weekly schedule, Sept. 21-26
The Cape Coast Conference volleyball tournament headlines the week ahead for Brevard County high school sports.
England latest: Cole Palmer withdraws from Thomas Tuchel's squad ahead of long international break
Cole Palmer was recalled to Thomas Tuchels squad after being snubbed for the 2026 World Cup; Palmer has scored four goals in seven games this season for Chelsea; Palmer had previously stated he felt back to his best after an injury-hit 2025-26 campaign
'The mentality in the dressing room is really good'
Newcastle defender Lewis Hall has said the Magpies are "happy with the three points" from Saturday's 2-1 win over Hull City but added that his side "got a bit sloppy". Hall put the hosts 2-0 ahead after just seven minutes but the Tigers came back into the match after that. "We let them get back into the game, which we need to look at," Hall told BBC Radio Newcastle.
Snapdragon 8 Elite Extreme Gen 6’s Engineering Prototype Video Surfaces Before Official Launch, Showing A New Packaging, Improved Benchmark Scores & More
An engineering prototype of Qualcomm's Snapdragon 8 Elite Extreme Gen 6 has leaked ahead of launch, revealing a new SoC packaging design, higher benchmark scores, and key hardware upgrades
Asian shares rise amid optimism around US-Chinese talks on trade and AI; oil prices fall
Talks between officials in New York come ahead of summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping later in the week
Xi Jinping Health Rumors Resurface Ahead of U.S.-China Summit
Rumors of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s deteriorating health have spread again after reports emerged that he skipped a dinner at the BRICS Summit held in Indi
Morning Bid: More oil is flowing, depending on who you ask
Sept 21 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.
What the weather can teach us about health
What if predicting your future health is more like forecasting the weather than we realize? New research suggests fundamental limits to how far ahead even perfect weather models can see. That idea raises a provocative question for precision medicine: Can more data and better models ever make an individual’s future truly predictable?
Young people in Morocco split over whether politics can deliver change as election draws near
SIDI MOUSSA EL MAJDOUB, Morocco (AP) — A funeral in rural Morocco for an elderly woman became an unlikely campaign stop for candidates trying to motivate disenchanted young voters ahead
Young people in Morocco split over whether politics can deliver change as election draws near
SIDI MOUSSA EL MAJDOUB, Morocco (AP) — A funeral in rural Morocco for an elderly woman became an unlikely campaign stop for candidates trying to motivate disenchanted young voters ahead of parliame…
Young people in Morocco split over whether politics can deliver change as election draws near
SIDI MOUSSA EL MAJDOUB, Morocco (AP) — A funeral in rural Morocco for an elderly woman became an unlikely campaign stop for candidates trying to motivate disenchanted young voters ahead of parliamentary elections Wednesday. Moroccan young people’s struggles to find jobs and opportunity drove Gen Z-led protests last year and a surge of migration to […]
A Shorter Apple Pencil Was Supposed to Launch Alongside iPhone Duo
A shorter Apple Pencil for the iPhone Duo was in development, but Apple scrapped it due to "technical problems ahead of mass production," according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. A shorter Apple Pencil for the iPhone Duo was in development, but Apple scrapped it due to "technical problems ahead of mass production," according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman.
US proposes AI incident notification mechanism before Trump-Xi summit
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposed an AI notification mechanism for national security ahead of Trump-Xi talks.
Wake county, state leaders weigh in ahead of Atrium-WakeMed merger vote
The Wake County Board of Commissioners is scheduled to vote Monday on proposed merger between WakeMed and Atrium Health. Some Commissioners tell WRAL they're still skeptical, while others say the deal will serve North Carolinians.
UCF's Defense Forces Three Turnovers in 44-30 Victory
Demari Henderson’s career-high performance and a relentless linebacking duo anchored a ball-hawking secondary, stifling Georgia State to secure momentum ahead of the Knights’ Big 12 opener against TCU.
Biggest Takeaways From UCF's Offensive Attack in Week 2
A revitalized ground game and Duke Watson’s explosive playmaking fueled the Knights' bounce-back win, securing the temporary starting job for Keyone Jenkins ahead of a tough Big 12 opener.
Opposition grows to Paramount-Warner Bros. merger settlement as the Hollywood deal enters a critical week
Paramount-Warner Bros. merger deal faces a critical week ahead
Northwestern Football Receives Votes in Coaches Poll
Coach David Braun's team was given votes ahead of its big game at Indiana.
Predicting The Washington Wizards Depth Chart After Finalizing Their Roster
After re-signing veteran leader and fan favorite Anthony Gill to a one-year deal, the Washington Wizards' depth chart is finally finalized. With this revamped roster and a potential postseason push, the Wizards' lineup will no doubt look very different from last season. Ahead of one of the most exciting Wizards seasons since the John Wall-Bradley …
GOP Rep. Salazar says she spoke with Trump and he is ‘very receptive’ to her warning about Hispanic voters
GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar Sunday said that President Donald Trump was “very receptive” to her warning that Hispanic voters feel “betrayed” by his immigration agenda ahead of the midterm elections.
Week 2 inactives for 49ers
San Francisco announces five inactives ahead of Week 2
Capcom celebrates 25th anniversary of the Ace Attorney franchise with new art
Capcom has decided to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the acclaimed Ace Attorney franchise ahead of its official anniversary date which is 12th October. The new artwork, which you can view down…
Chargers reveal Week 2 inactives vs. Raiders
The Los Angeles Chargers are sitting a handful of players ahead of their Week 17 matchup against the Houston Texans.
Jarbas Barbosa: Cervical Cancer and Digital Health Priorities Ahead of PAHO Governance Meetings
Jarbas Barbosa: Cervical Cancer and Digital Health Priorities Ahead of PAHO Governance Meetings / cancer, cervical cancer, cervical cancer prevention, Jarbas
Mayor Zohran Mamdani to meet with President Trump in New York City
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani will meet with President Donald Trump on Monday ahead of the United Nations General Assembly, Mamdani’s office said Sunday.
Emory hosts political leadership panel ahead of November elections
Speakers discussed the importance of younger generation engagement with politics and public service careers.
Why politicians should pay more attention to the polls (reprise)
Welcome to the 231st edition of The Week in Polls (TWIP), a polling newsletter that always welcomes new readers. So please don’t keep TWIP a secret; share it with your friends and colleagues: Share The Week in Polls With all the stories swirling around Reform, JL Partners and political polling, I am finally tearing myself away from talking about the regulation of polling this week - and instead re-running a previous piece reminding us why the solution to problems with polls isn’t simply to ban or ignore them. Rather, we need them to play a vital role in making our politics - and politicians - better. This is followed by summaries of the latest national voting intention polls, seat projections from MRPs and the most recent party leader ratings. Subscribers who pay for the full edition can also read ten insights from the latest polls and analyses, including: A trio of organisations and a pair of professors have been casting their eyes over the Liberal Democrats ahead of the party’s autumn conference; What impact did the summer heatwave have on views on climate change? and Which wins out between chocolate and cheese? If you are not yet a paid subscriber, you can read all ten by starting a free trial now: Get FREE 7-day trial For more polling news as it comes in ahead of next week’s edition, you can also follow The Week in Polls on Bluesky. Picking up on my doubt last week about whether or not 35% of British train travellers have tried to order a takeaway for delivery to a railway station or carriage, thank you to reader Iain, who has been in touch to say he has done just that… in India. Another quick pair of updates, this time on the controversies around Reform and polling. Politico has a further scoop - “Farage aide caught in donor sting attended Egypt retreat with JL Partners” - and Ian Dunt has written about the problems with polling too: “Seeing the response of many polling experts in the last few weeks suggests that they are nervous about what is happening and keen to mitigate against it. Seeing the response of journalists, which has been basically non-existent, suggests the precise opposite.” My usual reminder as well: please do hit reply if you’ve spotted a poll, focus group or new piece of poll-based research that you think should be in contention for coverage in a future edition. Thank you! And with that, on with the show. How politicians get public opinion wrong I have written before about the benefits that come from widespread availability of high-quality political polling. We need more polls and more good coverage of polls. However, what I’ve not dug into before is the research into how accurately politicians estimate public opinion on issues. Thankfully we have academic research to tell us. First, the bad news: We present results from a study of 866 politicians in four countries.1 Politicians were asked to estimate the percentage of public support for various policy proposals. Comparing more than 10,000 estimations with actual levels of public support, we conclude that politicians are quite inaccurate estimators of people’s preferences. They make large errors and even regularly misperceive what a majority of the voters wants. Politicians are hardly better at estimating public preferences than ordinary citizens. Walgrave, S., Jansen, A., Sevenans, J., Soontjens, K., Pilet, J.B., Brack, N., Varone, F., Helfer, L., Vliegenthart, R., van der Meer, T., Breunig, C., Bailer, S., Sheffer, L. & Loewen, P.J. (2023a), “Inaccurate Politicians: Elected Representatives’ Estimations of Public Opinion in Four Countries”, The Journal of Politics, 85(1): 209-222. The bad news is not quite as bad as that makes it sound because, when asked whether the majority of public opinion was for or against various policies, politicians picked the wrong option ‘only’ 29% of the time. However, this included getting it wrong even when public opinion is far from evenly split on an issue: They do not only get it wrong when the public is divided and hard to read (e.g., when there is a 51%:49% distribution). Seventy percent of the misplacements occur for policies with a relatively clear distribution of at least 60% (dis)agreeing citizens. Moreover, the public scored only slightly worse than politicians, picking the wrong option 2.7 out of 8 times on average, compared with 2.3 times for politicians. Turning to the other measure of accuracy (not which side is in the lead but what the percentage support is for each side), politicians on average were 18 percentage points out in their guesses. Again, this was only slightly better than the public, whose error came in at 21 percentage points.2 Further research, using the same mix of countries, gives a little more comfort about how (in)accurate perceptions are: We show that politicians have a better understanding of public opinion when they think the issue matters to voters. Further, when an issue is personally important to politicians they more accurately estimate their party supporters’ opinions. The results confirm that politicians hold more accurate perceptions of voters’ preferences when they think it is important to do so but not necessarily when the issues actually are important to voters. Butler, C., Walgrave, S., Soontjens, K. & Loewen, P.J. (2024), “Politicians are better at estimating public opinion when they think it is more salient”, Party Politics: 1–13. Even so, it’s not a good picture. The remedy for this? Politicians should spend more time reading the polls. So forward this newsletter to someone you know… Share For a more general argument against banning polls, see my 2024 piece. Is “Let Bartlet Be Bartlet” good advice or not? The latest episode of my Political Fictions podcast heads across the Atlantic for a dip into one of the political TV classics: Mark and Cory talk about a giant of American political drama for the first time this week, as they tackle The West Wing. They talk about Let Bartlet Be Bartlet, the nineteenth episode of series one. In it, Mark wonders if The West Wing is actually the epitome of the “Boris Johnson school of politics”, Cory outmanoeuvres Mark into confirming we will record a Christmas Special about Love, Actually and they debate whether the central message of this episode has been misunderstood. Cory’s email newsletter is Paperback Rioter and Mark has a family of email newsletters. Subscribe to our newsletter for some additional bonus content and to get alerted whenever a new episode comes out. Our theme tune is “Monkeys Spinning Monkeys” by Kevin MacLeod/incompetech.com and licensed under the Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License. You can also listen to our episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the web or YouTube. Elsewhere from me… [ A Lord's Eye View How to fix the problem of money in our politics Welcome to my latest update on work in the House of Lords. This time I am taking a look at how our political system is regulated, and the protections we need to keep democracy safe from becoming simply a contest to see who has the biggest bank account… Read more 5 days ago · 3 likes · 2 comments · Mark Pack ](https://lordseyeview.substack.com/p/how-to-fix-the-problem-of-money-in?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web&embedding_publication_id=1269283) If you spot a factual error… Borrowing an idea from Stuart Ritchie and others, if you spot a factual error in an edition of this newsletter, I will give you a free 12-month subscription to the paid-for version (or an extra 12 months on your existing one). Factual errors qualify, but grammatical errors or disagreements over interpretation do not, and my decision is final. Messages about both of those are always welcome, though. Voting intention and leadership ratings Here are the latest voting intention polls from different pollsters. It is all pretty static at the moment, with a small and consistent Labour lead in nearly all the polls. The table is also online here, along with explanations about what is included. It is updated regularly throughout the week as new polls are released. Next are the seat projections from MRPs, also sorted by fieldwork dates, listing those which are based on dedicated fieldwork (rather than models based on averages of other polls). Because such MRPs are published infrequently, some of the entries below are quite old. Finally, here is a summary of leadership ratings, with a graph from PollCheck: Detailed numbers from the latest polls are online here, and both that and the graph are updated regularly throughout the week as new data comes out. For historical figures on both voting intention and leader approval stretching back to the 1930s, including Parliamentary by-election polls, see PollBase. Catch up on the previous two editions [ ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ A crisis point for political polling Sep 13 ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ Read full story ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) [ Extra questions about the polls in Reform’s funding scandal Sep 6 ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) [ Read full story ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) My privacy policy and other legal information are available here. Links to purchase books or other items are usually affiliate links which pay a commission for each sale. Quotes from social media messages are occasionally lightly edited for punctuation and clarity. If you are subscribed to other email lists of mine, please note that unsubscribing from this one will not automatically remove you from the others. If you wish to be removed from all my lists, simply reply to this email to let me know. A quintet of Lib Dem polling analyses, and 9 other polling insights you shouldn’t miss The following ten findings from the most recent polls and analyses are only for subscribers who pay for the full edition, but you can sign up for a free trial to read them straight away. Ahead of the start of Liberal Democrat conference, we have a trio of organisations and a pair of professors with pieces out about Ed Davey’s party:
HEALTH: Vaccination clinics ahead at schools in West Seattle
Community members of all ages can get vaccinated at clinics coming up at local schools - here's the announcement we were asked to share to you: Seattle Visiting Nurse Association runs annual flu and COVID-19 vaccine clinics at various middle and high schools in partnership with Seattle Public Schools. These clinics are open to the public, ...
California Politics 360 full episode | Financial troubles ahead for CA high-speed rail
The project’s watchdog is sounding the alarm that the high-speed rail project could be out of money by December 2027.
Eagles make surprising offensive line change ahead of Titans game
The Eagles make switch on o-line.
See William Shatner Cover Metallica and Ozzy Osbourne in Heavy Metal Debut
Star Trek actor and band the *uckers played warm-up gig in Chicago Saturday ahead of official Riot Fest debut
Global business leaders to convene at COP31 forum in New York
The COP31 Global Business Forum – New York Dialogue is set to take place this week, gathering business leaders for key talks ahead of the U.N. climate...
49ers Announce 2 Roster Moves Before Dolphins Game
The San Francisco 49ers made their roster moves official Saturday ahead of Sunday’s home opener against the Miami Dolphins at Levi’s Stadium. Rookie wide receiver De’Zhaun Stribling landed on injured reserve, while defensive lineman Ogbo Okoronkwo was promoted to fill the vacated roster spot.Stribling’s Injury and Recovery TimelineStribling underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a ruptured […] The post 49ers Announce 2 Roster Moves Before Dolphins Game appeared first on HEAVY.
John Farnham's Family Reveals Health Decline Ahead of Tribute Show
John Farnham will not be present at the sold-out concert built to honor his half-century career, his family confirmed
California Republicans walk tightrope as Trump jumps into campaigning
California Republicans running in the state's most competitive House races are appearing to keep some measure of public distance from Trump ahead of the Nov. 3 election.
Complete NASCAR Cup points standings after 2026 Bristol Night Race
We have a new points leader, as Larson edges ahead of Hamlin in the championship fight
'We're our own worst enemy': Why OU's offense brings concern for brutal schedule ahead
Brent Venables walked up to the podium Saturday night with a stern look and spoke with a sharp, aggressive tone. Not about the defense but directed to the offense.
Dr. Jesse McGuire triumphantly sings rest of National Anthem after trumpet failure at Chase Field
Accomplished trumpeter Dr. Jesse McGuire found a new way to wow the crowd at Chase Field ahead of Diamondbacks-Yankees.
Daizen Maeda to thank Celtic supporters ahead of kick-off
Daizen Maeda will be at the game today to thank the Celtic supporters and say a proper farewell before the Glasgow Derby kicks off…Daizen Maeda of Celtic scores the third goal via bicycle kick durin...
Hope Harbor Speakout Through the Decades event
Guests enjoyed an evening of entertainment, games, and heavy hors d’oeuvres as they honored Hope Harbor’s history and looked ahead to its future.
Trump is only amping up his antics ahead of the midterm election
While President Donald Trump’s personal behavior is often strange, his conduct over the last 10 days have been pretty remarkable — especially with the midterm elections around the corner.
Tennessee defeats Kennesaw State ahead of SEC play
Tennessee defeats Kennesaw State in Week 3 at Neyland Stadium.
Indiana football's Curt Cignetti teaches Nick Marsh a valuable lesson
Indiana football's Curt Cignetti teaches Nick Marsh a valuable lesson ahead of Big Ten play:
Carson Wentz Receives Harsh Ranking Among NFL Backup Quarterbacks
Despite a stellar three-touchdown debut, analysts remain skeptical of Minnesota's new signal-caller. Discover why critics view the former starter as a mediocre backup ahead of Sunday's showdown.
NFL Announces Rule Change in Response to Latest Patriots Controversy
A new controversy involving the New England Patriots has led to the NFL making another rule change ahead of its Week 2 action. The post NFL Announces Rule Change in Response to Latest Patriots Controversy appeared first on HEAVY.
Paige Bueckers, Wings handle business vs. Mercury to mark end of an era at College Park Center
ARLINGTON, Texas — The Dallas Wings have two more regular-season games remaining and a playoff run ahead, but Saturday afternoon at College Park Center marked the end of an era.
Two Burning Questions Ahead of Orlando Magic Media Day
There is a lot of curiosity surrounding the 2026-27 Orlando Magic.
Annual rally at Boston Common draws thousands of marijuana advocates ahead of historic repeal vote
This year’s event billed itself as the “first overtly political” Freedom Rally since recreational marijuana was legalized across the state in 2016.
WATCH LIVE: Pete Buttigieg keynotes Texas Democrats Johnson-Jordan Dinner
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg delivers the keynote address at the Texas Democratic Party’s 12th Annual Johnson-Jordan Dinner as Democrats rally ahead of midterms.
BYU football vs Colorado State in a pregame weather delay
BYU and Colorado State football game has entered a weather delay pregame ahead of the Sept. 19 game, which will be broadcast on CBS.
Carrot Top hospitalized in Vegas after alleged suicide attempt: report
Carrot Top has been hospitalized following an alleged suicide attempt, according to a report. The comedian, whose real name is Scott Thompson, was rushed to the hospital ahead of his
Steelers make roster moves ahead of Week 2 vs. Patriots
Pittsburgh elevates two from the practice squad.
Steelers Make RB, CB Reinforcements Before Patriots Game
Ahead of Sunday’s road matchup with the New England Patriots, the Pittsburgh Steelers called up veteran running back Travis Homer […]
Cedric Gray injury update before Titans-Eagles game
Titans linebacker Cedric Gray has cleared concussion protocol ahead of the Sept. 20 game against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Sacramento Kings Position Primer: Shooting Guard
Taking a look at the shooting guard position for the Sacramento Kings ahead of the 2026 NBA season.
Fulham vs Manchester United predictions: Premier League tips and odds
Both Fulham and Manchester United are already under pressure this season ahead of their meeting at Craven Cottage on Sunday (kick-off, 4.30pm), in the final Premier League fixture before the international break.
Official Galaxy Tab S12+ Keyboards Leak Online Ahead of Expected October Launch
Leaked renders from a retail listing reveal Samsung's official Book Cover Keyboard Slim and Pro Keyboard for the upcoming Galaxy Tab S12+.
The September 11 cancer wave ahead
After the collapse came the dust. It billowed across Lower Manhattan in the wake of the 2001 World Trade Center terror attacks, turning people into ghosts as they trudged to safety.
Northwestern Defense Impresses Colorado Coach Ahead of Saturday Clash
Northwestern football's Tim McGarigle coached defense impressed a Colorado assistant in the film room.
Evaluating Knicks’ Biggest Roster Hole Ahead of Training Camp
The Knicks will look to figure out the backup shooting guard spot.
Florian Wirtz believes Liverpool have a ‘small advantage’ over Bournemouth
Florian Wirtz has revealed the advantage Liverpool have over Bournemouth ahead of their Premier League clash at the Vitality Stadium on Sunday.Liverpool are aiming to record their second Premier Leag...
Serie A | Juventus-Atalanta
Juventus and Atalanta are preparing to meet at the Allianz Stadium on Serie A Matchday 5.Ahead of the fixture, here are five numbers to know about the Bianconeri’s start to the league campaign.28Juv...