SCROLL NEWS / DISCOVERY
Search headlines
Find the stories shaping the conversation.
Results for " common " 1,363 found 🔀 AI-powered Shuffle
How Businesses Can Build Trust as Institutional Confidence Erodes
Business leaders discussed the significance of authenticity, action, and building common ground at the TIME100 Summit in New York City.
CommonSpirit Health named to ‘Dirty Dozen’ list of employers that put profits over safety
CommonSpirit Health has been named to the “Dirty Dozen 2026” list by the National Council for Occupational Safety and Health (NCOSH). The annual list from NCOSH names 12 companies whose disturbing disregard for safety includes repeated and serious violations of workplace safety laws and a history of ignoring known hazards.
Eight Yale scholars elected to American Academy of Arts & Sciences
The new members, who have made key contributions in a range of fields, join previously elected fellows in helping to “advance the common good” across the arts, democracy, education, global affairs, and science.
New clues for using common fungus to promote crop growth and health
Trichoderma species — a common fungus found in soils — have varying abilities to promote tomato plant growth and differentially affect the abundance of certain soil bacteria, according to a study led by researchers at Penn State.
The health misinformation crisis is bigger than anyone thought: Most people worldwide believe at least one of 6 common medical myths
A global Edelman survey yields a "stunning set of facts": seven in 10 believe at least one debunked health claim regardless of education, politics or age.
Virginia votes yes on proposed congressional redistricting, AP projects
Virginia voted to approve a plan to temporarily redraw the Commonwealth's 11 congressional districts ahead of November's midterm elections, the Associated Press projects.
DNA reveals a hidden pitviper species in China
A vivid green pitviper hiding in Sichuan’s misty mountains has been revealed as a completely new species. Scientists had overlooked it for decades, assuming it was a common snake—until DNA analysis proved otherwise. Named after Laozi, it features striking differences between males and females, including bold stripes and eye colors. The discovery highlights just how many unknown species may still be lurking in well-studied regions.
'Pretty stunning': Data shows political division is a top concern for Americans
'Common Ground': UNITE CEO Tim Shriver analyzes the alarming rise of political polarization in America on 'Special Report.'
Mistakes to avoid at state and national parks, from park ranger
After working as a park ranger at state and national parks for six years, I saw guests make common mistakes like straying from marked trails.
Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
Aspirin can reduce the risk of cancer – and we're starting to understand why
The 4,000-year-old drug, most commonly used to treat pain, prevents certain tumours from forming and spreading across the body – findings that are already changing health policies.
On the frontlines of speech science with Liberty Hamilton and Alex
Last summer, UC Berkeley hired not one but two computational neuroscientists, Liberty Hamilton and Alex Huth, who study how the brain processes language. The pair has a lot more in common. Both
Coming to Xbox Game Pass: Kiln, Aphelion, Final Fantasy V, and More
What do Chocobos, space, vampires, and sentient pottery have in common? If it’s anything more than “themes of games you can play soon” we’d really like to know what kind of weird list that is.
Kustom Entertainment, Inc. Announces Reverse Stock Split
Overland Park, KS, April 20, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Kustom Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ: KUST) (the “Company”), a leading provider of video solutions which develops, manufactures, and markets advanced video recording products and other critical safety products for law enforcement, emergency management, fleet safety, and event security, today announced a 1-for-5 reverse split (the "Reverse Stock Split") of the Company’s common stock (the "Common Stock") and proportional reduction of the number o
Business Leads for April 20, 2026
In January, 1,421 new businesses filed incorporation paperwork with the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth, in order to do business in the state.
Dining across the divide: ‘I think property is a right, not a business – he thinks differently because he’s a landlord’
They disagree on the private rented sector. Can they find common ground over a united Ireland?
Business groups resist anti-immigrant bills cheered by Trump
Many of the bills share common goals and similar texts, and they reflect the immigration enforcement priorities of the Trump administration.
Common cleaning sponge found to release trillions of microplastic fibers
That “magic” sponge under your sink may be hiding an environmental downside. While melamine sponges are famous for effortlessly scrubbing away stubborn stains, they slowly break down as you use them—shedding tiny plastic fibers that wash into water systems. Researchers estimate that globally, these sponges could release over a trillion microplastic fibers every month, potentially entering the food chain and affecting wildlife.
'Margo's Got Money Troubles' Has Almost Everything Going For It — But There's 1 Big Problem
Elle Fanning and Michelle Pfeiffer star in Apple TV's adaptation of Rufi Thorpe's novel. It's a delight but also falls into a common trap in this streaming era.
Amherst Sustainability Festival: A Day of Family Fun, Education, and Entertainment
Mark your calendars for the 14th Annual Amherst Sustainability Festival, taking place on Saturday, April 25 from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. on the Amherst Town Common. Coinciding with the regularly scheduled Amherst Farmer’s Market, this free and family friendly event brings together local farmers, environmental vendors, advocacy groups, live entertainment, hands-on demonstrations, sustainable crafts, and much more. “The Amherst Sustainability Festival has become a beloved event
College of Public Health Collaborates with Arkansas Cancer Coalition
The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences (UAMS) Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health conducts cancer research throughout the state. Its partnership with the Arkansas Cancer Coalition is among the reasons why it has such a wide footprint. “It matters that we work with the community on common goals,”…
Wildfire Smoke Poses Recurring Threat to Lung Health w
With wildfire smoke becoming a more common threat to lung health due to climate change, pulmonologists can play a role by preparing their patients and practices for the season.
6 Common Medications That May Decrease Dementia Risk
Some vaccines, along with heart medications and other drugs, appear to have a protective benefit.
SBI Sets Up Entertainment Fund with Cool Japan Fund
Tokyo, April 17 (Jiji Press)--SBI Holdings Inc. said Friday it has set up a fund with Cool Japan Fund Inc. to …
Participation, Debate and Community: Exploring Ancient Democratic Values in Modern Society | Pomona College in Claremont, California
Associate Professor of Classics Benjamin Keim explains what our methods for assessing potential officeholders have in common with those of the ancient Athenians.
World Cup excitement boosts local collectibles business
Excitement is growing as the World Cup comes closer to the Commonwealth and local businesses are already seeing a boost.
What’s the Buzz about Binge Drinking? – Expert Advice from RWJBarnabas Health
When we talk about binge drinking, it’s often in the context of college-aged adults. However, Alexis LaPietra, DO, FACEP, Medical Director of the RWJBarnabas Health Institute for Prevention and Recovery (IFPR) and Director of Addiction Medicine for Emergency & Hospitalist Services at RWJBarnabas Health, shares that while binge drinking is most common in adults aged 18-25, it is a concern for all ages.
Avoid these common small business tax mistakes
Block Advisors Strategy and Small Business Program Manager, Latasha Randle, chats with Host, Elizabeth Gore, about how self-employed entrepreneurs can simplify taxes, retirement, and healthcare planning. Randle shares practical advice on staying organized year-round, maximizing deductions, and building long-term financial security through proactive planning.
Common IBS medications linked to higher risk of death in major study
A massive, nearly 20-year study tracking over 650,000 Americans with irritable bowel syndrome is raising new questions about the long-term safety of common treatments. Researchers found that some widely used medications—including antidepressants and certain antidiarrheal drugs—were linked to a small but noticeable increase in the risk of death over time.
Common Ravens draft theme emerging for Lamar Jackson
This is now becoming a regular occurrence.
NFIB Releases Report Detailing Benefits of Federal 20% Small Business Tax Deduction Becoming Permanent for Massachusetts
Will the benefits of federal relief overcome the high-tax environment created by state and local government in the Commonwealth?
Traws Pharma Reports Full Year 2025 Results and Provides Business Highlights
Tivoxavir marboxil advancing towards a human influenza challenge trial as a once-monthly prophylactic agent, building on broad preclinical antiviral activity, Ratutrelvir topline Phase 2a data show a differentiated profile versus PAXLOVID® in COVID patients, with good overall safety; final study analysis underway Private financing of up to $60M (with $10M of such amount upfront) offering of common stock and milestone-based and three-year warrants completed on April 15, 2026 supporting operations
95% of people carry this virus and scientists may have just found how to stop it
Scientists have taken a major step toward stopping Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), an extremely common infection linked to cancer and chronic disease. By using mice engineered with human antibody genes, researchers created powerful human-like antibodies that block the virus from attaching to and entering immune cells. One of these antibodies completely prevented infection in lab models with human immune systems, marking a breakthrough after years of difficulty tackling EBV’s ability to invade nearly all B cells.
Just kidding about the separation of church and state?
You may recall the old truism the three things you shouldn’t discuss at a cocktail party are religion, politics, and, well, that last one often depends on the situation. But those first two tend to be commonly warned against as topics for conversation in polite society. So, guess what we are going to talk about […]
Consumer Reports: Keeping your kids in the game
Consumer Reports has some important advice for parents on how to help prevent common and often avoidable sports injuries.
FDA shares warning about cath lab procedure kits due to risk of patient injury
The syringes included in several convenience kits commonly used by interventional cardiologists and interventional radiologists should not be used. If treatment is necessary and no other devices are available, it should be done with “extreme caution and vigilance.”
Lessons from the OIG: Common Billing Errors Texas Home Health Providers Need to Know | Insights
The Texas Health and Human Services Office of Inspector General (HHSC-OIG) quarterly report highlights common billing errors and compliance issues in home healthcare settings.
New Huawei Foldable Looks a Lot Like Apple's Rumored iPhone Fold
Apple's upcoming foldable iPhone is expected to feature a book-style form factor that's relatively uncommon in the foldables market, but Huawei's new Pura X Max appears to share a similar wide aspect ratio. Set to be released in China next week, Huawei's new device actually builds upon a design used by the original, smaller Pura X, which was marketed last year as an extra-wide flip phone.
Northern Ireland swimmers ready to take on best in Commonwealth
BBC Sport NI looks at swimmers hoping to be confirmed as part of the Northern Ireland squad for the 2026 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow.
The Complex Transformations Underlying MC Escher’s Works
Self-similar images are rather common, which are images in which the same image is repeated on a smaller scale somewhere within the image that one is looking at, something which is also referred to…
From LLMs to hallucinations, here's a simple guide to common AI terms
The rise of AI has brought an avalanche of new terms and slang. Here is a glossary with definitions of some of the most important words and phrases you might encounter.
New York Giants land 'surprise' defender in latest CBS Sports mock draft
In the latest CBS Sports mock draft, the New York Giants pass on commonly projected prospects in favor of a "surprise" defender.
Scientists Finally Crack the 100-Million-Year Evolutionary Mystery of Squid and Cuttlefish
Genomic analysis reveals squid and cuttlefish evolved in deep oceans, survived mass extinction in refuges, and later rapidly diversified, following a “long fuse” evolutionary pattern.
See How the Brewers Suffered Another Loss
The Milwaukee Brewers' skid has extended to four games, and a common theme continues to plague them.
Gary Jackson featured at FMU School of Business for annual Common Author Colloquium
More than 60 students, faculty and community members gathered at Harris Auditorium Thursday for the annual Common Author Colloquium featuring author Gary Jackson, who discussed his new book “Small Lives: Poems,” which reimagines superheroes with new themes. The event, hosted by Shawn Smolen-Morton, chair of Francis Marion University’s Department of Modern Languages and professor of...
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Dear Abby | Eye exams can save more than your vision
Dear Abby: I'm an ophthalmologist, a physician who specializes in medical and surgical eye care, and I'm hoping you can help me debunk a common myth about eye health. Many
5 Uterine Fibroid Treatments That Can Help Relieve Symptoms
Uterine fibroids can cause heavy periods, pelvic pressure and bloating. An expert shares five common treatment options.
People Throw Away This Common Electronic Item Without Knowing It Holds 450MG of Pure 22-Carat Gold
You have almost certainly thrown this exact item in the trash without a second thought. Inside its forgotten shell sits a hidden payload of genuine 22-carat gold worth far more than the scrap value.
5th Annual Clinical Mental Health Counseling Virtual Conference
The Commonwealth University of Pennsylvania - Lock Haven, Department of Counseling & Educational Leadership, Clinical Men
Scientists Found a Common Brain 'Fingerprint' Across 5 Psychedelics
"This is a breakthrough in how we think about psychedelic drugs."
From Koch to Adams, history shows rocky starts are common for NYC mayors
Past mayors dealt with budget crises or economic downturns early on.
Sam Wilson banks nearly $23K in Q1, brings fundraising to $38K in Clearwater City Council bid
'This campaign is about bringing common sense back to Clearwater.'
Democrats running for governor have common ground, differences on health care policy
Democrats running for governor have similar health care goals, but different approaches to addressing them.
Simple dinner table habit linked to poor diet and higher health risks in adults over 60
New research links the common habit of reaching for the saltshaker at dinner to troubling health patterns in older adults, including blood pressure and poor diet.
Jacobs Institute of Women’s Health Launches New Initiative to Strengthen Postpartum Care | Milken Institute School of Public Health | The George Washington University
Initiative, funded by The Commonwealth Fund, will convene leading clinicians, researchers and policy experts to define and advance high-quality postpartum care nationwide
McConnell touts $18.5 million in federal funding for northern Kentucky
The funding for those projects is part of nearly $2.6 billion set aside for Kentucky for fiscal year 2026, which McConnell’s office said is a single-year record for the commonwealth.
Lewis Hamilton Introduces the Next Generation of EA SPORTS
Meet the Future of Sport: GEN / EA SPORTS Unveils New Anthem and Athlete
After howls from clubs, Syracuse cuts the red tape choking music venues
The Syracuse Common Council approved the new rule Monday after an old ordinance was resurrected when violence erupted after a show at the Westcott Theater.
Candid Politics: District 8 Common Council Candidate Bobby Gronert
Bobby Gronert is a Sophomore at UW-Madison, running for Common Council District 8 to make Madison affordable for students. The Badger Herald sat down with him to discuss his life and policies, and his outlook for the future of Madison.
Black-owned businesses considering Draft Bash event one mile from NFL Draft theater
Nearly 100 Black-owned businesses might set up at Allegheny Commons Park when the NFL Draft kicks off on the North Shore.
Syracuse Common Council will make vendors disclose if they do business with ICE
Vendors will now be required to simply check a box when trying to get a city contract.
Business Leads for April 6, 2026
In December, 1,421 new businesses filed incorporation paperwork with the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth, in order to do business in the state.
Burcum: In walking away from a tanning ban for minors, FDA misses a chance to prevent melanoma
"How seriously are we supposed to take Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the guy who’s supposed to be making America healthy again, when he’s abandoning an opportunity to prevent a common, potentially deadly cancer for generations to come?" columnist Jill Burcum writes.
Pocket-Sized E-Ink Gets A Firmware Upgrade
Not so long ago, e-ink devices were rare and fairly pricey. As they have become more common and cheaper, some cool form-factor devices have emerged that suffer from subpar software. [Concretedog] p…
Opinion: Why Alaska may point to the future of independent politics
Rather than labeling themselves as independents in protest of dysfunctional Republicans and Democrats, the title now stands for pragmatism and common-sense.
Bridging Political Divides: How faith can help find common ground
About 80% of American adults believe our political divides run so deep that we cannot even agree on basic facts, according to the Pew Research Center. But some Utah leaders say faith is helping them to find the common ground needed to bridge those political divides and find a new path forward.
Double Take -- Giese: Free market must be part of health care solution
If there is a “next” chapter in the Democrats’ deceitfully presented, deceptively titled and unilaterally imposed “Affordable Care Act,” commonly known as Obamacare, it will be added to a law
What is POTS, the disorder behind Fidji Simo's leave from OpenAI
POTS is a disorder that can cause heart palpitations, lightheadedness, and fainting. It is more common in women than in men.
'Incredibly common' drinking habit may quietly triple risk of serious liver condition: study
Meteor impacts may have sparked life on Earth, scientists say
Asteroid impacts may have helped kick-start life on Earth by creating hot, chemical-rich environments ideal for early biology. These impact-generated hydrothermal systems could have lasted thousands of years—long enough for life’s building blocks to form. Scientists now think these environments may have been common on early Earth, making them a strong candidate for where life began. The idea could also guide the search for life on other worlds.
5 3D Printer Accessories You Can 3D Print
A handful of smart 3D printer add-ons can solve common annoyances, and the best part is you can print them at home with minimal effort.
A Surprising Common Thread Among World Leaders: U.S. Business School
10 current presidents & prime ministers outside the U.S. studied business there, reinforcing the global reach of American B-schools.
Chemists make hydrogen from breadcrumbs in groundbreaking reaction that could replace some fossil fuels
Chemists say they’ve found a way to turn breadcrumbs into hydrogen, potentially offering a sustainable alternative to one of the most common chemical manufacturing processes.
CDC pauses testing for rabies, Epstein-Barr, monkeypox and other viruses
Disease tracking is also temporarily halted for monkeypox and other common viruses such as Epstein-Barr and varicella zoster virus.
Apple employee #8 Chris Espinosa on working his whole life at one company
It used to be common in Japan for someone to spend their entire working life at a single company, but...
New Research Reveals 2 Most Dangerous Cleaning Products to Have Around Kids
Household injuries send thousands of children to the emergency room every year. Researchers reveal which common cleaning products are the most dangerous.
How squid survived Earth’s biggest extinction and took over the oceans
Scientists have finally cracked a long-standing mystery about squid and cuttlefish evolution by analyzing newly sequenced genomes alongside global datasets. The research reveals that these bizarre, intelligent creatures likely originated deep in the ocean over 100 million years ago, surviving mass extinction events by retreating into oxygen-rich deep-sea refuges. For millions of years, their evolution barely changed—until a dramatic post-extinction boom sparked rapid diversification as they moved into new shallow-water habitats.
Myth-busting virtual care’s most common misconceptions
For patients who've never tried virtual care, there can be a lot of misconceptions. Sanford answered some common questions to debunk myths.
Fort Collins teams win Science Bowl regionals, qualify for nationals
Teams from Fort Collins' Fossil Ridge High School and Liberty Common Junior High won regional Science Bowl titles to advance to nationals.
John Hood: In politics, common decency should still matter
Among the worst features of today’s politics is its pervasive crudity. Democrats and Republicans don’t just compete for electoral power and disagree on policy. They question motives, hurl insults and
What do you want to know about beta-blockers?
For decades, beta-blockers have been commonly prescribed as a standard treatment for adults who have had heart attacks with no complications and many people continue the medications for life. But a growing body of research has begun to question that approach.
Fourth Texas Area Planetary Science Meeting Returns in August 2026
The 4th Texas Area Planetary Science Meeting (TAPS) will be held on August 20–21, 2026, at the Commons Conference Center at The University of Texas at Austin.
Gamehost Enters into Definitive Agreement to Be Acquired by Pure Casino Entertainment for $13.65 per Share
Red Deer, Alberta--(Newsfile Corp. - March 30, 2026) - Gamehost Inc. (TSX: GH) ("Gamehost" or the "Corporation") and Pure Casino Entertainment Limited Partnership ("Pure") announced that they have entered into a definitive arrangement agreement (the "Arrangement Agreement") pursuant to which Pure will, indirectly through a subsidiary, acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Gamehost (the "Gamehost Shares") for $13.65 in cash per share (the "Transaction"). Pure operates casinos
Too much sitting is taking a toll on heart and brain health
DALLAS, March 30, 2026 — Too much sitting has quietly become one of the most common threats to heart health in the United States. Research shows that prolonged sedentary time is linked to higher risks of heart disease, stroke and poorer mental health,...
Improved Assessment of Health Care Worker Attitudes about Prenatal Alcohol Exposure and Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders May Improve Prevention and Treatment
The authors of a recent study have recommended improvements to commonly used assessments of health care and social service providers’ attitudes about prenatal alcohol exposure and fetal alcohol spectrum disorders. The recommendations follow a thorough evaluation of assessments that had not previously been psychometrically validated and represent a first step toward establishing reliable and valid measures to assess attitudes toward these conditions. More accurately understanding providers’ a
Health Policy Watch: Available cervical cancer vaccines fail to cover the HPV 35 genotype common in Africa
HPV 35, globally associated with only 2% of invasive cervical cancers, has a disproportionately higher prevalence in sub‐Saharan Africa.
Scientists shocked to find lab gloves may be skewing microplastics data
Scientists may have been unknowingly inflating microplastics pollution estimates, and the surprising source could be their own lab gloves. A University of Michigan study found that common nitrile and latex gloves release tiny particles called stearates, which closely resemble microplastics and can contaminate samples during testing. In some cases, this led to wildly exaggerated results, forcing researchers to track down the unexpected culprit.
Why There's Simply No Need For Microsoft Office Anymore
Microsoft Office programs were ubiquitous with productivity and a variety of projects, but these days, cheaper cloud-based equivalents are much more common.
How baseball imitates life: Authors share tips for sports parents
What do Derek Jeter, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and "Seinfeld" have in common? They provide examples of how baseball lessons can help our kids succeed.
Here's some of the real science behind the science fiction film ‘Project Hail Mary’
The new science fiction film adaptation leans heavily on real science done by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, more commonly known as NASA.
Here's some of the real science behind the science fiction film ‘Project Hail Mary’
The new science fiction film adaptation leans heavily on real science done by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, more commonly known as NASA.
Here's some of the real science behind the science fiction film ‘Project Hail Mary’
The new science fiction film adaptation leans heavily on real science done by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, more commonly known as NASA.
Apple Says No iPhone in Lockdown Mode Has Ever Been Hacked
Apple says it has no record of a successful spyware attack against any device running Lockdown Mode, the opt-in security feature it introduced in 2022. "We are not aware of any successful mercenary spyware attacks against a Lockdown Mode-enabled Apple device," an Apple spokesperson told TechCrunch. Lockdown Mode is available on the iPhone, iPad, and Mac, and dramatically restricts certain system features that are commonly exploited by mercenary spyware.
Vanguard Reports 0 Shares of Golden Entertainment
Amendment No.2 shows The Vanguard Group disaggregated subsidiaries and reports 0 shares (0%) of Golden Entertainment common stock, signed 03/27/2026.
Trump EPA relied on industry science to weaken formaldehyde cancer rules, documents show
Papers reveal how chemical lobby influenced policy, reversing Biden-era limits on a common carcinogen
Pomegranate Market owners discuss challenges of transitioning family business
This entrepreneurial father-son duo opened up about transitioning the family business, as well as their vision for the future of Pomegranate Market.
Healthcare Priorities in Governors’ 2026 State of the State Addresses
Across the country, Governors from coast to coast made healthcare a centerpiece of their 2026 legislative addresses—identifying common challenges around rural access, workforce shortages, rising costs, and behavioral health, and charting a range of ambitious courses to address them. Rural Access Gaps Rural and remote communities have experienced losses in critical healthcare infrastructure, inherently decreasing […]
Poll: Vote for the Blue FCU Top Fort Collins-area Girls Winter Athlete
Vote for the top girls winter athlete. Nominees are from Liberty Common wrestling, Fossil/Wellington swim and Fort Collins/Windsor/Timnath basketball.