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$198 Million Super Bowl MVP Teases Signing With Cowboys
Legendary edge rusher, NFL All-Pro and Super Bowl MVP Von Miller teased signing with the Dallas Cowboys on his Instagram Stories. The post $198 Million Super Bowl MVP Teases Signing With Cowboys appeared first on HEAVY.
Boston sues Meta, Snap, ByteDance over youth mental health
The city is suing the companies behind Facebook, Instagram, TikTok and Snapchat.
Lauren Bennett’s dad reveals late singer’s medical issues, says doctors ‘failed to treat her appropriately’
Lauren Bennett’s dad is speaking out about the loss of his daughter and sharing why he believes medical professions ‘failed’ to treat her ‘appropriately’ before her death in late May.
The Instagram vs. reality lesson I learned visiting Niagara Falls
One hotel photo sent me chasing the wrong Niagara Falls stay. As a travel marketer, I should have known better.
Rabid bat found in Marion County prompts county health warning
Marion County officials warn after a bat in the Marion area tested positive for rabies. Residents should avoid bats and other wildlife, keep kids and pets away, and ensure dogs and cats are up to date on rabies shots.
Meta Launches New Image Generation Tool for Consumers and Businesses
Meta has begun rolling out an image generation model available in Meta AI. Muse Image is the first such model developed by Meta Superintelligence Labs,
Philly squid biologist combines science & art with new mural in Kensington
When she's not driving 'The Squidmobile,' Sarah McAnulty is installing vivid murals about other critters that live in Philadelphia.
This Toilet Attachment Helps You Understand Your Gut Health, Hydration And More
Kohler Health's easy-to-install bathroom appliance provides key wellness metrics and personalized health insights.
Nordic combined, a Winter Olympic mainstay, dropped from 2030 Games; freeriding added
Nordic combined, a feature of every Winter Olympics, is out as the IOC announced moves that will make 2030 the first gender-equal Games.
Former Bachelor Peter Weber hooked up with his producer, new book reveals
‘The Bachelor’ season 24 star Peter Weber reportedly got intimate with his producer and his ex Hannah Brown while the season was airing.
Crowd work comedian Jeff Arcuri is ready to meet you
Stand-up comic Jeff Arcuri has become the guy from your Instagram reels you can’t quite place, now turning viral crowd work clips into his first Netflix special, “Nice to Meet You.”
Four states seeking $1.4 trillion in penalties in child social media addiction trial, Meta says
Four states are seeking $1.4 trillion from Meta over claims Facebook and Instagram were designed to be addictive to children without any warnings on the alleged harms of the apps.
Windows 11 will soon be able to reinstall itself and your drivers without a USB drive via new 'Cloud Rebuild' recovery method
A new recovery option coming to Windows 11 will let you reinstall the OS and your drivers using the internet without a USB key, even when Windows itself is unbootable.
Diamondbacks C James McCann comes off IL
The Arizona Diamondbacks called up James McCann and optioned catcher Adrian Del Castillo.
Taylor Frankie Paul reveals rehab stay for her mental health
Taylor Frankie Paul took to her Instagram story to share why she decided to enter a facility for her mental health earlier this year.
Mario Lopez responds to being labeled a Trump supporter: ‘I’m not a political person’
Mario Lopez responded to reports that he supports Donald Trump in a since-deleted Instagram comment.
Strong Flare Erupts from Sun
The Sun emitted a strong solar flare, peaking at 4:41 p.m. ET on July 4. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, which watches the Sun constantly, captured an
The Talos Principle 3 creators are doing their best to stay hopeful in the tech apocalypse
The puzzle series' final installment is staying optimistic, even in the face of death and AI
NSTA and Tuva Expand Partnership to Advance Data Literacy in Science Education
NSTA and Tuva announced an expanded partnership to co-facilitate professional learning that strengthens data literacy in science education.
Rap legend known as pioneering voice in hip-hop dead at 61: ‘An instant force’
The MC rose to fame in the 1980s.
England survive the Azteca in instant World Cup classic
England advance to the quarterfinals with a 3-2 win over Mexico
There's one group of Android users Google's new sideloading rules won't affect
LineageOS says Google's new developer verification system for sideloading apps on Android will not affect devices running its custom ROM.
2026 World Cup Odds: Folarin Balogun's Return Leaves Books Scrambling
The betting on USA-Belgium changed in an instant once it was announced Folarin Balogun was eligible to play. Patrick Everson has the scoop.
Mallory McMorrow suspends campaign for U.S. Senate
Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) has suspended her campaign for U.S. Senate, announcing the news on Instagram on Sunday afternoon.
Audit spots some errors, but gives Wyoming Business Council passing grade
Though there were some instances of incomplete, misclassified reporting and mathematical errors, an audit of the Wyoming Business Council shows the agency generally operates within a complex set of state
ENTERTAINMENT: ‘Moulin Rouge! The Musical’ onstage at WAC
A touring company brings “Moulin Rouge! The Musical” (a jukebox musical featuring tunes from Jacques Offenbach to Lady Gaga with a book by John Logan, based on Baz Luhrmann’s 2001 film) to Fayetteville’s Walton Arts Center.
Audit spots some errors, but gives Wyoming Business Council passing grade
by Dustin Bleizeffer, WyoFile Though there were some instances of incomplete, misclassified reporting and mathematical errors, an audit of the Wyoming
Audit spots some errors, but gives Wyoming Business Council passing grade
by Dustin Bleizeffer, WyoFile Though there were some instances of incomplete, misclassified reporting and mathematical errors, an audit of the
Miss Manners: My friend can’t stop talking politics at our parties
A host is frustrated with a friend who constantly brings up politics at parties despite being asked to keep the mood light, and wonders whether they must continue inviting him since he lives nearby.
World Cup 2026: Cape Verde's Vozinha frustrates Lionel Messi in heroic loss to Argentina
Vozinha entered the World Cup with 50,000 Instagram followers. He is up to 18.4 million after Cape Verde's loss.
Steelers install new grass field at Acrisure Stadium after NFLPA survey graded previous surface poorly
Audit spots some errors, but gives Wyoming Business Council passing grade
Though there were some instances of incomplete, misclassified reporting and mathematical errors, an audit of the Wyoming Business Council shows the agency generally operates within a complex set of state
Liverpool install new Jota memorial
Liverpool have installed a permanent memorial outside Anfield in tribute to Diogo Jota and his brother Andre Silva to mark the first anniversary of their death. The 'Forever 20' memorial, created by renowned sculptor Emma Rodgers, is centrally a flowing heart sculpture, an acknowledgement of the forward's goal celebration. From different angles it also shows the numbers 20 and 30, the brothers' shirt numbers, and includes the lyrics to Jota's song, which has been sung in the 20th minute of every match since his death in a car crash on 3 July 2025.
LeBron James' birthplace urges NBA star, 'Come home...please'
Akron's Summa Health, birthplace of LeBron James, posted a not-so-subtle message on Instagram urging the NBA star to finish his career in Cleveland.
Democrats demand HHS reinstate cancelled teen pregnancy prevention grants
Democrats across both chambers of Congress are demanding the Trump administration reinstate tens of millions of dollars in teen pregnancy prevention (TPP) grants that were suddenly cancelled last w…
iOS 27 Public Beta Available This Month, Here's How to Get Your iPhone Ready Now
Apple previously announced that the first iOS 27 public beta would be released in July, meaning that it should be available at some point this month. Below, we have outlined how to get ready for the iOS 27 public beta, which will likely follow the third or fourth iOS 27 developer beta. Release Date History The first public betas of iOS 16 through iOS 26 came out between July 11 and July 24.
iOS 27 public beta release date: When you can install the new iPhone update
iOS 27 is currently only available in developer beta, but there’s a public beta coming soon. Here’s when to expect the iOS 27 public beta.
Ford sales struggle with no Escape, F-Series woes, less rental business
Ford struggled compared to crosstown competitors General Motors Co. and Stellantis NV.
This startup wants to make city streets searchable with AI
Orchestra has installed more than 100 cameras in San Francisco. Next up: 900 more, then the rest of the world.
Croatia criticised for ‘unambitious’ changes to 2022 science law
Croatia’s science ministry has been accused of a lack of ambition, and even incompetence, over proposed changes to the country’s 2022 science law. Critics say an opportunity has been missed to fix wider shortcomings in the research and universities system.“This law, like all the previous ones, will not significantly change the current state of science in Croatia,” Vlatko Silobrčić, a member of the Croatian Academy of Sciences, told Science Business. “A small shift here and there will not have a significant impact.”The 2022 law introduced multi-year block grant financing of research, based on results, and changes intended to boost employment and career progression for researchers and lecturers. But implementation of the law has been uneven. “It became apparent that certain of its provisions were subject to different interpretations by higher education institutions and scientific institutes,” the science ministry said in its proposal for change. “This caused legal uncertainty in the system, administrative difficulties in implementation and, in certain cases, unequal treatment of teachers, scientists and students.”Most of the proposed amendments deal with technicalities in hiring and promoting staff, such as extending the committee deadlines from 60 to 90 days, or allowing applicants to cite all of their achievements and not only those since their last appointment.Both the ministry and Croatian media highlighted changes that would raise the retirement age from 65 to 67 years and allow part-time students 15 year rather than 10 years to finish their studies.The change to retirement age has been criticised for reinforcing a weakness in the system. According to Matko Marušić, professor emeritus at the University of Split, this will “allow unproductive teachers to advance and work longer, while hindering and discouraging productive ones.”A longtime campaigner for excellence-based meritocracy, he sees little hope in the new legislation. “I am not optimistic that things will improve,” he told Science Business. “As recent changes to the law in Croatia show, the legal framework is becoming increasingly hypocritical and harmful.”For Marušić, who analyses Croatia's university system in a recently published book, the situation is “unfavourable and constantly deteriorating” due to the criteria used for academic advancement.“The key criterion for advancement should be scientific productivity,” he said. “In Croatia [. . .] scientific criteria are increasingly lowered, and ineffective and absurd criteria such as waiting times for promotion and age limits for remaining in a job are promoted.” He would also like to see better criteria for the quality of teaching at universities. “In practice, teaching is not monitored or evaluated,” he said, estimating that up to a third of teaching simply does not take place. “Under the guise of university autonomy and bad laws, universities and faculties are allowed to earn additional money by increasing enrolment quotas that have nothing to do with the needs of the labour market.” Lack of ambitionDora Kršul, a reporter at Telegram.hr who covers science policy in Croatia, finds the rationale for changes “bizarre.” “The ministry responsible for supervising the uniform application of the law is changing the law because it is being implemented unevenly,” she said. “This primarily speaks to the power relationship in the sphere of science and higher education in Croatia, that is, the question arises as to who actually manages this system.”Rather than raising quality, she continued, the changes appear to be designed to help vocational and applied universities who have not been complying with the law.The Independent Union of Research and Higher Education Employees of Croatia said that the changes were “unambitious” and represent a missed opportunity for more important changes. “We think some of the changes are even negative,” it said in its statement on June 25. One of these is introduction of an “assistant” job title that allows people to be hired only for the duration of a project. Related articles: Elections to top science bodies test Croatia’s gender equality in researchSlovakia revises R&D approach to increase focus on competitivenessLatvia pilots citizen engagement in research grant evaluationsThe union’s president, Tvrtko Smital, who was part of the 15-member working group tasked with drafting the changes, told the local media there was a “worrying lack of ambition” in the process, and “lack of competence” in terms of research experience and understanding the problems in the system.“There is no clear will to deal with the problems,” said Smital, an assistant professor of marine and environmental sciences at the Ruđer Bošković Institute in Zagreb. “It’s a combination of unambitiousness and incompetence,” he went on, expressing his “deep frustration” with the situation. “There is no strategy, no clear thinking, and money is not being spent optimally.”Croatia’s science ministry has not responded to requests for comment.
Business Confidence Improves Modestly Ahead of Q3 2026
Colorado business leaders entered the third quarter of 2026 with modestly improved confidence, though expectations remain below neutral as inflation, political and policy instability, and geopolitical uncertainty continue to shape the business outlook.
Meta's new cloud business will be instantly profitable, says Jim Cramer
CNBC's Jim Cramer discusses the day's market action, the stocks he's watching and more.
Krafton Agrees to Pay ‘Subnautica 2’ Bonuses as Developer’s CEO Resigns
After being fired over a $250 million payout dispute and then reinstated, Unknown Worlds Entertainment boss Ted Gill is leaving again
Supreme Court decision loosening campaign finance rules could be boon for Paxton in Senate race
Now permitted to spend freely in coordination with GOP candidates, national Republican committees can use their flush war chests to help candidates like Paxton close fundraising deficits.
iPhone 18 Pro to offer only these three colors, per leaker
Here are the new iPhone 18 Pro colors launching this fall, according to leaker Instant Digital, and the one that could be missing.
Scared to Take on a Challenge? Science Says It Will Instantly Seem Easier When You Imagine Facing it With a Friend
Research shows the presence of social relationship, whether real or imagined, will change how difficult a challenge appears to be.
Sun Belt Conference Officially Welcomes Louisiana Tech
FOLLOW THE SUN | FACEBOOK | INSTAGRAM | PRIMARY X | FOOTBALL X
Wilmington Small Business Coalition: Building Momentum in 2026 by Heather McWhorter
This article was contributed by Lydia Thomas, UNCW CIE Program Manager. North Carolina continues to be one of the best states to start a business and in 2025, Wilmington, North Carolina earned a spot on the GoDaddy list of the top 10 most entrepreneurial cities in the U.S. While many know Wilmington as small beach town with exceptional food, lots of coffee shops, and fun, vibrant summer activities, a closer look reveals a thriving innovation economy. You’ll find startups emerging across industries including software, healthtech, bluetech, and fintech. At the core of this entrepreneurial ecosystem is the Wilmington Small Business Coalition, with small business advocates and entrepreneur support organizations (ESOs) dedicated to helping founders grow, thrive, and succeed. “No Wrong Door” Established in 2016, the Coalition was designed to make it easier for individuals and small businesses to access resources most suited to their particular needs. The Coalition is designed to have a “no wrong door” entryway into the regional startup ecosystem. Whether you are exploring a new idea sketched on the back of a napkin or leading a more established, growth-stage company, Coalition members can help connect you with the programs, funding opportunities, mentors, and resources best suited to your needs. No matter where you are in your entrepreneurial journey, any Coalition organization can help point you in the right direction. Coalition Members and Leadership Coalition members include the UNCW Center for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (UNCW CIE), AARP, Brunswick Community College Small Business Center, Cape Fear Community College Small Business Center, Cape Fear Region SCORE, Genesis Block Foundation, Network for Entrepreneurs in Wilmington (NEW), Small Business & Technology Development Center (SBTDC), Greater Wilmington Chamber of Commerce, YWCA Living the Dream Center for Entrepreneurship, Carolina Community Impact Fund (CCI Fund), Partner Community Capital, 717mkt Office Collaborative, NC Biotech, and Institute NC. In May 2026, the Coalition held its leadership elections, resulting in the selection of a new executive team. The following officers were elected to serve two-year terms: Chair: Lydia Thomas, UNCW CIE Vice Chair: Diane Lantz, CCI Fund Secretary: Aariene Hansley, Genesis Block Foundation Treasurer: Gloria Monroe, SBTDC Vision for the Wilmington Small Business Coalition In 2026, the Wilmington Small Business Coalition continues its work as a collaborative network of organizations. By connecting programs, expertise, and services across partner organizations, entrepreneurs can more easily find the right support at the right time. Rather than operating in silos, the Coalition aims to function as a unified, cohesive system of support for small businesses and entrepreneurs, ensuring that resources and expertise across partner organizations are visible and accessible. Through stronger collaboration and shared pathways, entrepreneurs can move more seamlessly from idea to startup to growth. Looking to dive into the Wilmington entrepreneurial ecosystem? Connect with any of the Coalition partners to get started! Connect with CIE To learn more about CIE and our services, programs, and events, join the CIE newsletter. You can also follow us on social media: Instagram, Facebook, LinkedIn, TikTok, or YouTube. CIE’s website is uncw.edu/cie. Heather McWhorter is the director of the UNCW Center for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (CIE). CIE supports innovation-forward start-ups and helps to build a vibrant innovation economy for all in southeast NC.
‘Minions & Monsters’ scores series-best reviews for Illumination’s animated franchise: ‘Weird, willful popular entertainment’
The latest installment drops the Minions down in Old Hollywood with cameos from Harold Lloyd and Charlie Chaplin.
Report: Apple Watch Redesign Coming Next Year With New Band System
A "major overhaul" of the Apple Watch's design is due to arrive next year with a new system for connecting bands, according to a known Weibo leaker. In a set of recent posts, the leaker known as "Instant Digital" linked the new claim to older rumors about an "Apple Watch X" model, which was said to introduce a fresh design and break compatibility with the existing watch band system.
Tennessee transfer infielder Manny Marin commits to Arkansas
Tennessee transfer infielder Manny Marin has committed to Arkansas via the NCAA Transfer Portal. The former Volunteers star made the announcement via his Instagram page. — This story is developing and will be updated. Check back momentarily.
Reaching communities close to hostilities in Ukraine
Primary health care teams in Ukraine are reaching 121 locations within 60 km from active hostilities. This is part of the largest primary health care intervention in frontline areas in the country. European Union (EU)-supported teams are delivering essential services to people trapped by constant shelling and severe security constraints in 7 regions where no pharmacies operate, no health facilities function and evacuation remains impossible for residents.
Louisville woman sentenced to federal prison after pool business fraud
Tracy Davenport was sentenced to federal prison after facing charges in connection with defrauding customers from her pool installation business.
The next test of the democratic socialist movement and other key races to watch in Colorado’s primaries
Democratic rifts over ideology, generation change and how best to take on President Donald Trump will be on display Tuesday in Colorado, as voters settle primaries for governor and a key House race, weigh ousting two mainstays of the state’s Democratic landscape and more.
An introvert shares strategies for in-person work at the office
Catherine Fadashe identifies as an introvert and said she pretends she's onstage when she goes into the office.
Dodgers Reinstate Teoscar Hernández from Injured List
The Los Angeles Dodgers brought back outfielder Teoscar Hernández from the injured list with a hamstring strain on Monday.
Watch out, Amazon: the Kobo eReader now has a Goodreads rival
Kobo users can now automatically sync their reading progress to StoryGraph, making it easier to track books, reading stats, and challenges without relying on Amazon’s Goodreads.
Betsy Fischer Martin Will Lead Harvard’s Institute of Politics
The Emmy-winning journalist was a mainstay of political coverage at NBC for two decades.
Moving ‘Casey and Diana’ plumbs the messy layers of hope
Nick Green’s dramatization of Princess Diana’s visit to an AIDS hospice is darkly funny and life-affirming, onstage at American Players Theatre through Sept. 24.
Jose Mourinho eyes Chelsea mainstay as his ‘priority’ signing
Former Real Madrid manager Xabi Alonso has taken over the reins as Chelsea’s new coach and is already planning the squad and his dynamics for the upcoming season.The revolutionary thinker that he is...
Philippines leads the world in rush to solar as power prices soar
People in the Philippines are flocking to install solar power on rooftops and escape the burden of soaring electricity prices, making it the world's biggest spender on solar panels since the war in Iran started.
RF Hacking A Ceiling Fan Via The Remote
[Sam Wilkinson] recently installed a Dreo CLF513S ceiling fan in his place — it’s cheap, well-sized, and blows air around as you’d expect it to. The only problem is that it only w…
SteamOS now offered with new gaming prebuilt PCs
MetaPCs Steamroller is a $1,299 desktop with SteamOS installed. The system uses Ryzen 5 9600X, Radeon RX 7600 and standard desktop parts.
Rep. Ryan rejects rolling back of PFAS cleanup at Stewart air base
Pat Ryan, a Democrat who represents New York’s 18th Congressional District, says the Department of Defense is looking to reduce statutory reporting requirements for PFAS at military installations.
I started using Projects in Google Drive; it instantly boosted my productivity
Google Drive finally feels smarter
Bill Cassidy accuses Trump of treating Congress as ‘merely an appendage’
Out-going Louisiana senator’s rebuke over Iran war is rare instance of a Republican politician standing up to Trump
The Politics of the Instagram Story
Drive yourself crazy for the low price of $3.99 a month!
Airlines Are Installing New Luxury Seats, but No One Is Allowed to Sit in Them
Lie-flat seats in private pods face long waits for safety certifications, delaying debuts for carriers’ high-end offerings.
Back in business: Blue and White Snack Bar owners vow to uphold tradition of Hollidaysburg mainstay
HOLLIDAYSBURG — A local Hollidaysburg landmark is back as Blue and White Snack Bar, 905 Union St., reopened for business May 12. “The Blue and White is a landmark in Hollidaysburg and really all of Blair County. To say that people are excited to see it open again is an understatement,” Mayor Chad Repko said. […]
Beloved Brookline restaurant closes after over 60 years in business
A well-known Brookline restaurant announced on Instagram that it officially closed for good after over 60 years in business.
UFC Baku live results, highlights and play-by-play
UFC Baku results, highlights, live discussion and instant play-by-play, reactions and analysis.
This might be the new best smart speaker
In this week’s Installer: Gemini, Star Fox, and The Last Airbender.
Annika Sörenstam reveals Chiefs fan Caitlin Clark's dual sport ability
During her interview with @EdEastonJr, professional golf icon Annika Sörenstam revealed Kansas City Chiefs fan Caitlin Clark's dual sport ability
We almost had a smartphone in the 90s. Why did it fail?
In the early 90’s, a company called General Magic began working on a portable device that would allow people to check email, make phone calls, even play games. It was basically a smartphone. But it never caught on.On today’s show, a theory about why this device failed. General Magic had generous investors, world-class talent and creative freedom. But is it possible what they needed was constraints?Support:Planet Money+Read: Our book: Planet Money: A Guide to the Economic Forces That Shape Your Life Our weekly longform Planet Money newsletterOur weekly Indicator round-up newsletterFollow: InstagramTikTokYouTubeFacebookThis episode was hosted by Erika Beras and Emma Peaslee. It was produced by Emma Peaslee with help from Sam Yellowhorse Kesler and James Sneed. It was edited by Marianne McCune and fact-checked by Charlotte Isidore. It was engineered by Jimmy Keeley with help from Cena Loffredo. Alex Goldmark is Planet Money’s executive producer.
Music Legend Axes Shows After Onstage Health Scare
Lionel Richie was hospitalized on the opening night of his tour with Earth, Wind & Fire after feeling dizzy on-stage.
Louisville coaches can't afford to stay sidelined amid NCAA changes
The NCAA has brought college sports into instability, which is why coaches like Louisville's Jeff Brohm and Pat Kelsey have to be activists.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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David P. O'Brien
About five years ago, David P. O'Brien had a comfortable position at Marsh & McLennan Cos., where he held the top post at the financial giant's Louisville, Ky., office. Despite the lofty rank, Mr. O'Brien found himself longing to be at a smaller company that had to work a little harder to land business. That desire led him away from Kentucky five years ago and to Cleveland, where he serves as executive vice president at business insurance agency Oswald Cos. "I left Marsh before it was en vogue," he said, referring to layoffs and defections at Marsh over the course of this year that followed accusations of bid rigging at the big firm. Above all, Mr. O'Brien, 38, wanted to work at a company that relied on its inventiveness, rather than its name, for business. He said he has found that at Oswald. "It causes you to be more creative, to be more resourceful," Mr. O'Brien said. For instance, an Oswald client seeking to do business internationally might be directed to the network of offices abroad run by competitors such as Marsh and Aon Risk Services Inc. "We're going to use whatever access into the market that makes the most sense for our clients," he said. Of course, using such a strategy can be dangerous for Oswald if its client decides to further a business relationship with one of the firms Oswald recommended. "That's the obvious question and why it's nontraditional," he said. "I think if we're good, and if we're bringing value to the client, then there's no risk. I'm not threatened by it." Imaginative business solutions of that type made his career move to Oswald from Marsh worthwhile. "It's very much a challenge," he said. "It helps you keep your edge. I'm all for the competition." John Jacunski, currently vice president and corporate controller at York, Pa., paper company PH Gladfelter Co., met Mr. O'Brien four years ago when Mr. Jacunski was at WCI Steel Inc. in Warren. So impressed was he with Mr. O'Brien's work for WCI that Mr. Jacunski has retained the Oswald executive at PH Gladfelter. "He's a young guy for the position he has, but he's done a great job for us," Mr. Jacunski said. Among his roles at Oswald, Mr. O'Brien leads the firm's client retention efforts and also serves as director of its property and casualty group. "You don't have the same human resources," he said of the job jump to Oswald. "You don't have, obviously, the safety net a big company has." But sometimes, it can be difficult to ascertain individual contributions when working at a big company. "I wanted to be able to see the end results of my work and my efforts," Mr. O'Brien said.
Valanciunas described a routine built around constant …
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