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Weaner Pig Breakeven at $10.44, Down $4.52 From Last Week
When you consider that today’s purchased weaner would be sold in March 2027 using April 2027 futures, the weaner breakeven was $10.44, down $4.52 for the week, and $18.27 below the average cash price for the week of $28.71.
Gary Peters to join USC Center for the Political Future after Senate term
Sen. Gary Peters has announced his next plans after his term in the U.S. Senate ends in January.
Hideo Kojima doesn't know if Physint will be released on PS5, and he hasn't decided if it's going to use Sony's Decima game engine
Sony's sudden decision to drop Hideo Kojima's Metal Gear successor Physint has raised many questions about the game's future.
Michigan Sen. Gary Peters to lead USC political center. What he'll do
U.S. Sen. Gary Peters will co-lead the Center for the Political Future at USC after his Senate term ends in 2027.
Greenland deal: a victory for Trump?
US president is welcome to take credit for ‘something very close to’ existing arrangement, says Danish politician
A City Built On Innovation Will Welcome The Future Of Science In 2027
Pittcon’s return to the city of its birth will bring together their respective expertise in a rare opportunity for scientists.
Exclusive: Inside Brad Bird’s 30-Year Quest to Hard-boil the Future in Ray Gunn
The ‘Iron Giant’ filmmaker is shooting for another sci-fi favorite with his private-eye tale starring Sam Rockwell, Scarlett Johansson, and Tom Waits.
I got to see Google’s wild ideas about the future of laptops
Googlebooks are here, starting at $899.
'Project Hail Mary: Journey Among the Stars' lets players do jazz hands with Rocky in mixed reality
We played the upcoming mixed-reality and VR adventure game based on the hit sci-fi movie at Gamescom, and talked with one of its developers.
Britain’s Burnham is set to meet Trump for the first time at the UN in New York
Britain's Prime Minister Andy Burnham is set to meet U.S. President Donald Trump for the first time. The meeting will take place on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Burnham plans to discuss ways to bolster Ukraine's defenses and ease fuel prices that have soared since the US-Israeli war with Iran blocked ships from moving freely through the Strait of Hormuz. Burnham, once critical of Trump, now says he wants to seek common ground. Trump has called Burnham “a nice guy,” but has also concerned U.K. officials by expressing support for Irish unification and musing about the future of the Falkland Islands.
France Football turns its spotlight on Algeria's ‘Mazadona’
The Algerian wonderkid blends multi-cultural roots with midfield mastery, earning Ballon d’Or recognition and a legendary nickname as he anchors the future of Bayer Leverkusen’s ambitious project.
Man City 5-3 Sunderland
What a perfect performance by the lads and what a magnificent way to capitalise on Arsenal's loss yesterday and secure ourselves at the top of the table. Sunderland were a credit and gave us a real test. Brian Brobbey will be a very good player in the near future.
The future of Black political representation and power
The Supreme Court’s Callais decision raised questions about how Black communities can protect representation and build political power.
They planned their lives in America. Now, they're looking elsewhere.
Former H-1B hopefuls and international graduates are building new lives abroad, as a stable future in the US increasingly becomes a pipe dream.
U.S. Sen. Gary Peters to lead USC Dornsife’s Center for the Political Future, named Warschaw Chair
The Michigan Democrat will serve alongside Republican strategist Mike Murphy, bringing a record of bipartisan lawmaking and plans to expand the center’s presence in Washington.
What a Massive New Crater Means for Future Moon Bases
At a whopping 728 feet wide, the newfound basin hints at the risks that impact events may pose to planned human outposts.
The devastating Nepal floods highlighted the danger of glaciers. Here's where the next disaster may occur.
The glacial collapse that killed 1,400 people in Nepal in August highlighted one epicenter for such disasters — but there are other hotspots that experts are worried about.
Building Michigan’s healthy future requires a different kind of workforce strategy
Wayne State is investing in talent, research and partnerships to strengthen Michigan’s health workforce and improve community health.
Building Michigan’s healthy future requires a different kind of workforce strategy
Wayne State is investing in talent, research and partnerships to strengthen Michigan’s health workforce and improve community health.
Keane presence at Celtic Park defeat played down
Roy Keane's appearance at Celtic Park as Martin O'Neill ponders his future as manager is played down as Aberdeen's Findlay Marshall expresses relief at not being sent out on loan.
Michael Carrick believes Man Utd can still have big season despite equalling club's worst Premier League start- Paper Talk
Latest transfer news and headlines include: JJ Gabriels reason behind wanting to leave Manchester United; Andoni Iraola continuing to want more from Alexander Isak despite his winning goal against Bournemouth; Martin ONeill ponders his future as Celtic boss
Science Advances celebrates 100 years of electron spin from quantum sensors to dark matter
Special issue reviews spin physics breakthroughs and future challenges across semiconductors, dark matter and quantum field theory
CSU’s biochemistry and molecular biology department hosts annual kickoff
On Monday, Sept. 14, the Colorado State University department of biochemistry and molecular biology hosted its Academic Year Kickoff. The hourlong presentation mainly comprised information about the budgetary system CSU will adopt next fiscal year and the future of the department in response to the change. The event was hosted by department chair Laurie Stargell....
Dutch scientists discover tin-based solar breakthrough that keeps hot electrons 1,000 times longer than current panels, changing the future of solar power
Scientists at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands have discovered how tin-based perovskite materials allow hot electrons to retain their excess energy for around 1,000 times longer than expected, a finding that could shape the future of solar power. The researchers found that two physical effects, the hot phonon bottleneck and the Burstein–Moss effect, work together to slow electron cooling from picoseconds to nanoseconds.
What the weather can teach us about health
What if predicting your future health is more like forecasting the weather than we realize? New research suggests fundamental limits to how far ahead even perfect weather models can see. That idea raises a provocative question for precision medicine: Can more data and better models ever make an individual’s future truly predictable?
John Oliver Takes Swipe at David Ellison and His ‘Business Daddy’ Larry Ellison on ‘Last Week Tonight’
The HBO host cracked jokes at the expense of his probably future bosses on the Sept. 20 episode of “Last Week Tonight.”
What do Arizona voters want? Center for the Future of Arizona has some answers
The findings are part of CFA’s 2026 Arizona Voters’ Agenda, an ongoing project aimed at highlighting shared voter priorities during election cycles.
'Japan' factor draws Turkish students to new science college in Ankara
Hopes of employment, internships, study in Asian country lure future engineers
Road Sweep Comes with Bright Spot For A's Future
Jack Perkins provided an on-the-field positive for the franchise, while another losing season has provided them the odds to land the No. 1 pick in next year's draft.
Bucs Rookie LB Trotter Continues Hot Start to NFL Career
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have quickly found their top linebacker of the future in Josiah Trotter, who has arguably been the best player on the team through two weeks.
Bucs Rookie LB Trotter Continues Hot Start to NFL Career
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have quickly found their top linebacker of the future in Josiah Trotter, who has arguably been the best player on the team through two weeks.
'Nothing short of a minor miracle': 'Rusty treasure' found in the Danube is full of 2,000-year-old iron bars that could equip an entire army with weapons
Archaeologists in Austria have analyzed a collection of 500 iron bars that were likely lost in a Danube shipwreck 2,200 years ago.
Robert Kraft set a ‘powerful example’ with Macklemore ban, political analyst says
‘Fox News Sunday’ panelists discuss the Michigan U.S. Senate race, the controversy involving Ed Sheeran and Macklemore and the future of the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C.
Europe Makes The Science, China Makes The Batteries, But Who Builds The Future?
One in eight electric cars charging in Europe already carries a Chinese badge, while many European brands still rely on Chinese-made batteries. The challenge
Will There Be a “Lioness” Season 4? What We Know About the Paramount+ Series’ Future
The ‘Lioness’ season 3 finale aired on Sept. 20 and ended with a major twist
Marvel Tōkon: Fighting Souls' Future Already Looks Bleak
Marvel Tōkon: Fighting Souls' has dipped into three-figure player counts on Steam, and it's less-than-impressive sales numbers are likely to blame
Why politicians should pay more attention to the polls (reprise)
Welcome to the 231st edition of The Week in Polls (TWIP), a polling newsletter that always welcomes new readers. So please don’t keep TWIP a secret; share it with your friends and colleagues: Share The Week in Polls With all the stories swirling around Reform, JL Partners and political polling, I am finally tearing myself away from talking about the regulation of polling this week - and instead re-running a previous piece reminding us why the solution to problems with polls isn’t simply to ban or ignore them. Rather, we need them to play a vital role in making our politics - and politicians - better. This is followed by summaries of the latest national voting intention polls, seat projections from MRPs and the most recent party leader ratings. Subscribers who pay for the full edition can also read ten insights from the latest polls and analyses, including: A trio of organisations and a pair of professors have been casting their eyes over the Liberal Democrats ahead of the party’s autumn conference; What impact did the summer heatwave have on views on climate change? and Which wins out between chocolate and cheese? If you are not yet a paid subscriber, you can read all ten by starting a free trial now: Get FREE 7-day trial For more polling news as it comes in ahead of next week’s edition, you can also follow The Week in Polls on Bluesky. Picking up on my doubt last week about whether or not 35% of British train travellers have tried to order a takeaway for delivery to a railway station or carriage, thank you to reader Iain, who has been in touch to say he has done just that… in India. Another quick pair of updates, this time on the controversies around Reform and polling. Politico has a further scoop - “Farage aide caught in donor sting attended Egypt retreat with JL Partners” - and Ian Dunt has written about the problems with polling too: “Seeing the response of many polling experts in the last few weeks suggests that they are nervous about what is happening and keen to mitigate against it. Seeing the response of journalists, which has been basically non-existent, suggests the precise opposite.” My usual reminder as well: please do hit reply if you’ve spotted a poll, focus group or new piece of poll-based research that you think should be in contention for coverage in a future edition. Thank you! And with that, on with the show. How politicians get public opinion wrong I have written before about the benefits that come from widespread availability of high-quality political polling. We need more polls and more good coverage of polls. However, what I’ve not dug into before is the research into how accurately politicians estimate public opinion on issues. Thankfully we have academic research to tell us. First, the bad news: We present results from a study of 866 politicians in four countries.1 Politicians were asked to estimate the percentage of public support for various policy proposals. Comparing more than 10,000 estimations with actual levels of public support, we conclude that politicians are quite inaccurate estimators of people’s preferences. They make large errors and even regularly misperceive what a majority of the voters wants. Politicians are hardly better at estimating public preferences than ordinary citizens. Walgrave, S., Jansen, A., Sevenans, J., Soontjens, K., Pilet, J.B., Brack, N., Varone, F., Helfer, L., Vliegenthart, R., van der Meer, T., Breunig, C., Bailer, S., Sheffer, L. & Loewen, P.J. (2023a), “Inaccurate Politicians: Elected Representatives’ Estimations of Public Opinion in Four Countries”, The Journal of Politics, 85(1): 209-222. The bad news is not quite as bad as that makes it sound because, when asked whether the majority of public opinion was for or against various policies, politicians picked the wrong option ‘only’ 29% of the time. However, this included getting it wrong even when public opinion is far from evenly split on an issue: They do not only get it wrong when the public is divided and hard to read (e.g., when there is a 51%:49% distribution). Seventy percent of the misplacements occur for policies with a relatively clear distribution of at least 60% (dis)agreeing citizens. Moreover, the public scored only slightly worse than politicians, picking the wrong option 2.7 out of 8 times on average, compared with 2.3 times for politicians. Turning to the other measure of accuracy (not which side is in the lead but what the percentage support is for each side), politicians on average were 18 percentage points out in their guesses. Again, this was only slightly better than the public, whose error came in at 21 percentage points.2 Further research, using the same mix of countries, gives a little more comfort about how (in)accurate perceptions are: We show that politicians have a better understanding of public opinion when they think the issue matters to voters. Further, when an issue is personally important to politicians they more accurately estimate their party supporters’ opinions. The results confirm that politicians hold more accurate perceptions of voters’ preferences when they think it is important to do so but not necessarily when the issues actually are important to voters. Butler, C., Walgrave, S., Soontjens, K. & Loewen, P.J. (2024), “Politicians are better at estimating public opinion when they think it is more salient”, Party Politics: 1–13. Even so, it’s not a good picture. The remedy for this? Politicians should spend more time reading the polls. So forward this newsletter to someone you know… Share For a more general argument against banning polls, see my 2024 piece. Is “Let Bartlet Be Bartlet” good advice or not? The latest episode of my Political Fictions podcast heads across the Atlantic for a dip into one of the political TV classics: Mark and Cory talk about a giant of American political drama for the first time this week, as they tackle The West Wing. They talk about Let Bartlet Be Bartlet, the nineteenth episode of series one. In it, Mark wonders if The West Wing is actually the epitome of the “Boris Johnson school of politics”, Cory outmanoeuvres Mark into confirming we will record a Christmas Special about Love, Actually and they debate whether the central message of this episode has been misunderstood. Cory’s email newsletter is Paperback Rioter and Mark has a family of email newsletters. Subscribe to our newsletter for some additional bonus content and to get alerted whenever a new episode comes out. Our theme tune is “Monkeys Spinning Monkeys” by Kevin MacLeod/incompetech.com and licensed under the Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License. You can also listen to our episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the web or YouTube. Elsewhere from me… [ A Lord's Eye View How to fix the problem of money in our politics Welcome to my latest update on work in the House of Lords. This time I am taking a look at how our political system is regulated, and the protections we need to keep democracy safe from becoming simply a contest to see who has the biggest bank account… Read more 5 days ago · 3 likes · 2 comments · Mark Pack ](https://lordseyeview.substack.com/p/how-to-fix-the-problem-of-money-in?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web&embedding_publication_id=1269283) If you spot a factual error… Borrowing an idea from Stuart Ritchie and others, if you spot a factual error in an edition of this newsletter, I will give you a free 12-month subscription to the paid-for version (or an extra 12 months on your existing one). Factual errors qualify, but grammatical errors or disagreements over interpretation do not, and my decision is final. Messages about both of those are always welcome, though. Voting intention and leadership ratings Here are the latest voting intention polls from different pollsters. It is all pretty static at the moment, with a small and consistent Labour lead in nearly all the polls. The table is also online here, along with explanations about what is included. It is updated regularly throughout the week as new polls are released. Next are the seat projections from MRPs, also sorted by fieldwork dates, listing those which are based on dedicated fieldwork (rather than models based on averages of other polls). Because such MRPs are published infrequently, some of the entries below are quite old. Finally, here is a summary of leadership ratings, with a graph from PollCheck: Detailed numbers from the latest polls are online here, and both that and the graph are updated regularly throughout the week as new data comes out. For historical figures on both voting intention and leader approval stretching back to the 1930s, including Parliamentary by-election polls, see PollBase. Catch up on the previous two editions [ ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ A crisis point for political polling Sep 13 ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ Read full story ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) [ Extra questions about the polls in Reform’s funding scandal Sep 6 ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) [ Read full story ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) My privacy policy and other legal information are available here. Links to purchase books or other items are usually affiliate links which pay a commission for each sale. Quotes from social media messages are occasionally lightly edited for punctuation and clarity. If you are subscribed to other email lists of mine, please note that unsubscribing from this one will not automatically remove you from the others. If you wish to be removed from all my lists, simply reply to this email to let me know. A quintet of Lib Dem polling analyses, and 9 other polling insights you shouldn’t miss The following ten findings from the most recent polls and analyses are only for subscribers who pay for the full edition, but you can sign up for a free trial to read them straight away. Ahead of the start of Liberal Democrat conference, we have a trio of organisations and a pair of professors with pieces out about Ed Davey’s party:
Alex DeBrincat Sends Strong Message About Dylan Larkin
Alex DeBrincat delivered an emphatic show of support for Dylan Larkin amid continued questions about the center’s Red Wings future.
German state elections on track for high turnout with Merz's future on the line
Seven percentage-points higher turnout in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, four points in Berlin
Play'n Go partners with Ember Entertainment to expand portfolio
The renowned online casino game provider announced a new partnership to power titles in West Virginia, with two other states planned in the near future.
Brandon Lowe on Possible Future With the Pirates
Would Brandon Lowe be open to re-signing with the Pittsburgh Pirates this offseason?
A Cloudy Climate Mystery Over Antarctica Has Scientists Rethinking Their Models
Researchers compare observations with leading climate models to identify errors and help improve future climate predictions. Some simulations put too many low clouds over the Southern Ocean, yet still underestimate how much heat reaches the surface below. Observations from an Antarctic research voyage suggest that fixing the cloud count alone will not solve the problem.
Auxerre only Ligue 1 side to make Anthony Martial approach
Anthony Martial’s (30) future is expected to be decided next week, L’Équipe understands. The Frenchman will not be making the move to Ligue 1, however. The publication understands that the former...
'We are on our way to groundbreaking science': Stars turn neon-green in first test image from NASA's Roman telescope — Space photo of the week
This week, NASA turned on the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope's powerful 300-megapixel camera for the first time. The debut test image promises "groundbreaking science" to come with NASA already talking about doubling the mission's lifespan.
I spent 30 minutes with the iPhone Duo — 3 things you just don’t get from the pictures
This thing hits different when you hold it
Did the Vikings really shoot fiery arrows at funeral boats?
The idea of Vikings using fire arrows to set funeral boats ablaze is seen frequently in popular culture. But did it really happen?
5 gas-guzzling cartoons about high fuel prices
Artists take on a Middle East mess, gaslighting drivers, and more
Hope Harbor Speakout Through the Decades event
Guests enjoyed an evening of entertainment, games, and heavy hors d’oeuvres as they honored Hope Harbor’s history and looked ahead to its future.
Letter: Move Science Museum to Berglund Center
The Berglund Center is a hot topic of discussion these days. How to preserve it and keep it relevant for future generations?
Fatal Fury: City of the Wolves datamine potentially leaks future DLC characters
Fans have been datamining the latest update for Fatal Fury: City of the Wolves, which may have leaked future characters with a potential Season 4 of DLC. We’ll be getting into the details below, so keep that in mind before proceeding. All information comes from heavenstardrive. First up, new win quote dialogue from Rick points to Xiangfei joining the game...
NC State Alumnus Establishes Full Scholarship for Undergraduate Students in Agriculture Majors
A $10 million gift from NC State alumnus David Peele will give students from eastern North Carolina the opportunity to attend NC State’s College of Agriculture and Life Sciences with the full cost of attendance covered – and spend four years immersed in the research, mentorship and experiences preparing them to lead the future of agriculture.
Three Cuban women, three businesses, one dream: How they’re building their future in Miami
They arrived in Miami by different paths. Now they’re turning what they know and love — pole dancing, tennis and skin care — into businesses and a shot at the American dream.
Monaco gives Arsenal hopes of transfer windfall in January
Arsenal are one of the clubs with the strongest interest in Folarin Balogun’s future, not because the Gunners want to bring him back into their squad at the end of this season, but because they reta...
Viral Ja Morant Clip Needs a Real Answer
A polarizing video of the star's raw trade reaction has Blazers fans questioning his commitment. Now, the new centerpiece must prove he values Rip City’s future.
Baku, Decisive for Williams: Its Upgrade Must Validate the Future
The British team introduces the long awaited FW48 upgrade package in Azerbaijan. More than scoring points, the update must prove that the new processes and tools work and that the path toward the 2027 FW50 is the right one.
Fire Breaks Out in Tonya's Café & Bakeshop; Business Closed for 'Foreseeable Future'
An overnight fire at Tonya's Café & Bakeshop in Chapel Hill caused enough interior damage to indefinitely close the business.
Raphinha gives Barcelona clear signal on his long-term future
Raphinha has told RAC1 he would be happy to extend his Barcelona contract beyond its current 2028 expiry and finish his career at the club, according to Barca Blaugranes. The Brazilian is currently ti...
Political cartoons for September 19
Saturday's political cartoons include blaming Biden, the center of attraction, and more
ESPN’s fifth-place Knicks ranking is already missing the point
ESPN put the Knicks fifth in its latest three-year future power rankings after having them third a year ago. The […]
The Big Holes in Wearable Heart Rate Variability And Readiness Scores
On September 9th, Apple announced it was revamping its Apple Watch Health Sensing System, rolling out a Readiness score (0 to 10), and increasing the frequency of heart rate variability (HRV) outputs 24-fold. This can be viewed as upping its competition with various other consumer wearable sensors. These “readiness scores” as a composite of multiple metrics, with heart rate variability (HRV) being front and center for most. The majority of Americans are now using wearable sensors, which equates to well over 100 million adults. HRV and Readiness scores are increasingly being marketed as a measurement of autonomic nervous system health, a digital marker for future disease, a clock for biological age, and a holistic metric to promote healthspan and even longevity. (Apple also introduced a new longevity tab and “Health Age”.) None of this has been proven. In this edition of Ground Truths I am going to review what we know about heart rate variability and readiness scores. Heart Rate Variability HRV is the variation in normal heart cycle timing. The variability of the heart rate, the barely perceptible millisecond changes in time between consecutive heart beats (see R-R intervals in the Figure below, left panel), is due to interplay between the sympathetic and parasympathetic (vagal nerve) inputs. Distinct from heart rate, individuals with the same heart rate can have very different HRVs. It is a rough reflection of the autonomic nervous system (ANS) activity, inadequate to say whether a person’s ANS function is abnormal. For more than three decades, heart rate variability (HRV) has been measured and several studies have found an association of low HRV and clinical outcomes, particularly a link with higher all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. There have also been less well established links of low HRV to risk of early cognitive impairment, dementia, mental illness, Type 2 diabetes and substance abuse. An important reminder is that HRV is a surrogate marker without any established cause-and-effect relationship. If you increase your HRV, that doesn’t mean it will improve health outcomes. In fact, there is no hard evidence for that. All that work linking to health outcomes was done with electrocardiogram (ECG) derived HRV. Now, in the era of consumer wearables, this is getting assessed differently, by optical pulse (yes, the lights you see) plethysmography (PPG) or what is called pulse rate variability (PRV). They are not the same, as shown below (right panel) and only concordant when the delay between the ECG and pulse is kept constant, which basically means at rest. I should mention there’s also what I will call MPV, a mattress mechanical movement sensor, a derived heart rate variability, that companies like Eight Sleep use, even further away from directly measuring HRV. HRV has not one uniform measurement but many different types of quantification, such as RMSSD, the magnitude of difference between successive R-R intervals of normal sinus beats (N-N) or SDNN, the standard deviation of NN intervals, both in milliseconds. SDNN is one of the so-called frequency domain HRVs (others are LF, HF, LF/HF). Different wearable sensors use different metics; Apple has relied on SDNN and nearly all of the others use RMSSD, which is generally considered the more accurate metric. There’s also the different length of time measured, such as for a matter of minutes, all day, or an overnight’s sleep. Short measurements are especially problematic since they don’t capture enough of respiratory modulation and other factors that influence HRV. Share Ground Truths How well does HRV correlate with PRV? There are very limited studies, especially independently done. One that is commonly cited was conducted by Air Force researchers in only 13 healthy adults assessing Oura ring 3 and 4, Whoop 4.0, and Garmin Fenix 6 and showed a correlation coefficient of 0.88 to 0.97 and a mean absolute percentage error from 6 to 10%. The correlation is not a perfect 1.0, but there’s at least a fairly high level of correlation. HRV is supposed to increase during the night due to takeover of the parasympathetic nervous system, and higher during deep sleep. A recent example of my 1 week, all day “HRV,” and one during sleep is shown below. As you can see, the N of 1 data are inconsistent for the same days from different sensors (Oura, AppleWatch, Fitbit Air, and Eight Sleep) by patterns, absolute numbers, and comparison with prior days and weeks. The largest study in over 8 million Fitbit users (the old version, not Google Fitbit Air, introduced in May 2026) gives you a sense of the effect of age, sex, and the 2 different main HRV (here PRV) metrics, with RMSSD on the left and SDRR (=SDNN) on the right below. That study, from data collected in 2018, is a major outlier, since all the more recent ones are tiny with respect to sample size. Many of the companies have not had independent evaluation of their HRV, such as Eight Sleep, but have published a low standard error on their website. There are some other published studies on the correlation between HRV and PRV, but they are all small and only in healthy adults. A scoping review emphasized the lack of study in underrepresented individuals, including the aged, people of color (which affects the PPG signal), and individuals who are underweight or obese. Add the typical adult age 60 plus with one or more chronic diseases. For example, one study in over 900 adults found poor correlation of HRV and PRV, non-uniformly underestimated across many chronic diseases (cardiovascular, endocrine, neurological, respiratory, and others), concluding PRV is “an invalid surrogate for HRV.” A recent systematic review of 43 studies comparing HRV and PRV found reasonable pooled absolute standardized error (HRV as gold standard) but only 10 of the studies provided quantitative synthesis in ideal conditions. Their main conclusion was similarly cautious: “PPG-derived HRV [PRV] should not be regarded as universally interchangeable with ECG-derived HRV across all devices, populations, and recording contexts.” Factors Affecting HRV and PRV That gets me to the long list of factors that affect HRV (and PRV) besides the device, the type of measurement (RMSSD, SDNN or others), the person’s signal, the sensor site, the duration of data capture, if weighting by sleep stage is used, how artifact is processed and corrected. And this list is not complete!: Oura puts out data from their community of users (who input data) on what affects their overnight HRV. The factors currently provided are: no alcohol (increase 8%), melatonin (increase 2%, float tank (increase 2%), wine (decrease 4%), and party (decrease 14%) in overnight HRV. Must be some big parties! Subscribe What is a PRV measurement good for? It has been falsely characterized as an index of “autonomic balance” and a specific indicator of stress. A 2018 review of the studies available for HRV and its relationship to stress, not using any of the current wearables, found that stress can lower HRV. But so can many other factors. The non-specificity of the signal, indexed to the table above, is striking. Evidence from a UK Biobank study of over 46,000 participants with actual HRV looked at genetically predicted HRV, a genetic risk score, that failed to show the expected HRV-mortality link, indicating that _HRV is likely not causa_l, but rather a reflection of person’s physiologic state. A review of consumer wearable HRV data from 5 longitudinal studies showed that nighttime PRV was not associated with perceived stress, and surprisingly higher HRV, in the largest cohort (N=717 participants), was correlated with higher stress. An Oura ring cohort of 525 first-year college students found a link between overnight PRV and perceived stress, but that was also seen with resting heart rate, sleep, and respiratory rate. Several very small studies have examined the relationship of HRV and athletic injuries or guiding training with mixed, and predominantly negative results. HRV biofeedback training with paced breathing had no significant effect on reducing stress or raising HRV, as demonstrated with sham controlled trials. When HRV for multiple days showed a decline in conjunction with body temperature, the Oura ring published data for prediction of Covid. The WHOOP company sponsored an observational study, published in 2026, of 30,000 users for 72 weeks, without a control group, that reported reduced alcohol intake (5.8 % points) by self-report. That doesn’t tell us much, and particularly about the merits of HRV for behavioral change. If you use the same device and conditions as longitudinal trends for multiple (at least 2-3) weeks that may be the one way to get something useful from the measurements. Data for overnight sleep with minimal motion and using RMSSD is the best proxy for real HRV. The reason to look at trends rather than any given night is that it more likely represents something, even though you won’t know with certainty what the “it” is. Keep in mind there are no data, no peer-reviewed evidence, to show that HRV fluctuation in-person has any correlation with health outcomes. Share Readiness Scores These are proprietary scores that integrate different metrics for each of the wearables: no algorithms have been disclosed. They are unvalidated against health outcomes. In a review of 14 composite health scores of readiness and recovery, HRV contributed 86% to the scores, followed by reading heart rate (79%), physical activity and sleep duration (both at 71%). That review noted the substantial variability in measurement protools and lack of standardization. Sleep staging is notoriously inconsistent and inaccurate by these sensors, which adds further to the HRV uncertainties for what the scores, which use sleep stage data, mean. Only resting heart rate has been shown consistently across devices to be extremely accurate. I’ve made a Table to summarize what we know about which metrics are included, the scores, any peer-reviewed studies that compared the readiness score with health outcomes, and the corresponding (if any, NA-not available) citation. You will note that some companies do not use the term “readiness," such as WHOOP for recovery, and Garmin, which has 2 different scores, one of which is Body Battery. Eight Sleep uses the term “Fitness Score.” They all include HRV; Apple includes a new metric they call “Recovery HRV” which among other components uses 7-days of sleep, but it is unclear what this means or how it is differentiated from other scores (there are clearly no data for outcomes). We have no knowledge of how the different components are weighted or whether any of these scores are better than resting heart rate, HRV alone, physical activity, or any other single metric. Since none of these are standardized, they are not interchangeable, so if you get a 90 for Oura that has no relationship to a 90 on a Google Fitbit Air. Notably, the company can update its algorithm for readiness score at any point without notification to device users. Without any useful evidence of actionability for these scores or established relationship with health outcomes, it is hard to make a case for their value. At the Apple recent announcement they showed their Readiness score (0-10) on the watch (Figure below) but there are no published data on this score, not even on their website. It’s available only on their new Watch Series 12 or Ultra 4 [of course, ;-)]. That exemplifies the problems with these scores, lack of data and evidence for being meaningful to promote health. Perhaps the best study (which isn’t saying much) is the WHOOP Recovery for golfer performance, because it did correlate with an objective outcome, even though there was no control group and the authors were all from the company. Among the 389 pro golfers, an absolute 10-per cent point increase in Recovery score was associated with about 0.5 fewer strokes per round. But that’s hardly a health outcome! WHOOP is also conducting a study in over 2,700 runners to see if their recovery score will be linked to less injuries and improved performance, but that is not yet published and has no control group or randomization. Putting This in Context For two decades I’ve been enthusiastic about the potential for digital health and particularly wearable biosensors. Over the years, we’ve seen some great progress for their ability to promote physical activity and accurately detect atrial fibrillation (the first FDA cleared deep learning AI for consumers). That work was the subject of rigorous research. But there are holes in the data and evidence for other metrics. One notable one is the “VO2 max” story that I wrote about earlier this year. At that time many subscribers asked me to cover heart rate variability, which I finally got to here. When I dived into the research and publication for HRV and readiness scores, I expected to find at least some that were of high quality and demonstrated their utility by linkage to health outcomes. To my surprise, I found none. The wearable sensor measurements for HRV (PRV) are, for the most part, accurate, but that validation work has only been done in small studies of healthy adults and does not take into account the long list of factors, from the device, software side, and the user side, that affect HRV measurements. Moreover, this metric chiefly relies on optical sensing and, as we have learned for heart rate PPG sensing, may be less accurate in people of color. Keep in mind that all of the health outcome association evidence comes from ECG-derived HRV; none are from wearable sensor data. I will repeat the key point: there's no peer-reviewed evidence to show that in-person HRV fluctuation—or efforts to raise your HRV— has any correlation with health outcomes. For those of you who look at your HRV on awakening, or even 2+ week trends of it being low, I hope this context helps to relieve any anxiety. Yes, low HRV (not PRV) has been shown to increase risk of some diseases as summarized above. But efforts to raise your HRV—a surrogate metric— has not been established for improving any health outcomes. HRV does not have any evidence of causality (the genetic evidence actually goes against this possibility). In this summary, I have not included data for other wearable sensors such as Polar, Samsung, Withings, Suunto, Amazfit, Coros, Ultrahuman, or additional mattress sensors. These are beyond my first-hand experience, and as far as I know from my in-depth review none have any peer-reviewed published data that differ from the 6 sensors I’ve reviewed here. From the points I’ve gone over above, we’re not ready for readiness scores. Besides being proprietary, they are predominantly based on metrics that have their own issues. It’s compounding the problem, like building a house without a solid foundation that has never undergone a rigorous inspection, and then selling it. Like I mentioned for PRV, you can look at trends over weeks rather than any single day, to get a handle, but even that may not be helpful. There’s simply no evidence that these scores meaningfully relate to health outcomes. I’d emphasize they might, but that requires doing prospective or randomized studies to prove it. None exist. There’s great promise for HRV/PRV utility_. For example**,**_ Prof Maiken Nedergaard, who discovered the brain glymphatics that are essential in eliminating metabolic waste products from the brain during sleep, has posited that HRV could be a non-invasive marker for neuromodulator oscillations, brain-body regulatory circuits, and brain clearance. That would be extremely useful, but like everything else on HRV and readiness scores it requires solid research and validation. The lay media isn’t helping much to get the story straight. Earlier this year The Economist published a piece entitled “The most useful indicator of your overall health” which ordained HRV as an “accumulated stress score.” That’s akin to the false assertion about VO2max: “V02 max is the singular most powerful marker for longevity.” As I’ve summarized here, that is not established. The fact is that so many things can lower HRV, including physical exercise (especially an intense workout), reduced sleep quality, stress, the list above, no less the device, signal, and software. Whatever fluctuations observed have not been correlated with any health outcome. Sadly, “datamaxxers” are widely using HRV and readiness scores that have never been validated to mean anything. We already know that for some people using the sensors for sleep metrics, it can induce “orthosomnia,” an obsession to get high sleep quality, with associated high levels of anxiety. In an experiment done by a company to promote sleep quality for its employees, “For those employees who did use the trackers, many reported feeling perfectly rested until their tracker told them they had had a terrible night. Others were told that they had slept like a baby when they had actually been lying awake worrying about the quality of their sleep. “ The same problem can result from preoccupation with HRV or readiness scores, with anxiety that would lead to further reduction in both. It you are using a wearable like >100 million American adults, it’s OK to look at these data, but contextualized with the major caveats reviewed here. If you are one to require evidence that HRV or readiness scores are linked to health outcomes, you may not even want to look. The companies make it hard to turn them off! Let me end with the companies that make and sell wearables. Apple’s doubling down on HRV (24-fold more reporting and heart rate very 5 seconds) and introduction of a Readiness score tells us that consumers have bought into these metrics and they are joining the club. However, all of this is occurring with a backdrop of tens millions of users, claims about the data that are not backed up by adequate evidence, marketing way out in front of whatever limited data exists, and not being transparent about their readiness score algorithms. The companies can well afford to do the research that is needed to connect these metrics with health outcomes show, once and for all, that increasing HRV or using readiness scores promotes our health. If they believed and invested in the products they are selling, we’d not be in this position of not knowing. That’s essentially where we are with HRV and readiness scores. Perhaps someday this will change and we’ll have good reason to embrace them. NB: I wrote this post. No AI. I have no conflicts of interest with any of its content. Loading... Ground Truths has 215,000 subscribers from every US state and 214 countries. There are over 300,000 followers of Ground Truths so more than 90,000 folks who can easily convert to be free subscribers. Your subscription to these free essays and podcasts makes my work in putting them together worthwhile. If you’re not a subscriber, please join! If you found this interesting PLEASE share it! Share Ground Truths The proceeds from all voluntary paid subscriptions go to support our summer internship program. It enabled us to accept and support a record number of 62 summer interns that joined us in 2026! These are high school, college and medical students selected from thousands of applicants. We couldn’t do this expanded program without the funds coming in through Ground Truths. Thank you!
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