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Kelly Kirschner jumps into race for open CD 16 seat
The former Sarasota Mayor hopes to succeed Vern Buchanan and flip the district blue.
Getting the basics done: Mamdani, Garcia tout ‘pothole politics’ strategy in improving NYC and Port Authority alike
Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Port Authority Executive Director Kathryn Garcia cast 2026 as a test of whether government can deliver on basic services and complex
Seattle’s mayor waves goodbye to prosperity
Starbucks retreats from Seattle after the socialist mayor urged a boycott.
Former Miami Mayor Francis Suarez: Why I’m joining Stephen Ross and Ken Griffin in betting big on ambitious business leaders
The man behind Miami's viral "How can I help?" explains why he signed on as Senior Advisor to the Gold Coast's most ambitious recruitment campaign yet.
Letters: San Diego’s fiscal and civic health in free fall
Can we endure two more years with this mayor in charge?
Universal health-care event featuring mayor set for West Seattle in May
A statewide organization campaigning for universal health care is coming to West Seattle for its next major event. The organization Whole Washington will gather supporters for a gala at Youngstown Cultural Arts Center on Saturday, May 16. Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson is scheduled to be one of the guest speakers, as is State Rep. Shaun Scott. ...
Sheriff’s indictment adds to New Orleans’ year of political turmoil
Two major New Orleans elected leaders have now faced criminal charges in the same year, with outgoing Sheriff Susan Hutson’s indictment following former Mayor LaToya Cantrell’s federal case.
Entertainment: Cinco de Mayo Collides With Fastest Two Minutes in Sports
Plus: A Gaming Hoopla for good?
Mamdani tax break proposal sparks fears as business leaders warn of ‘fragile’ NYC economy
Business leaders warn NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani's proposal to scale back a key tax credit could hurt small businesses and drive companies out of the city.
Mayor Mamdani calls for return of crown jewel to India
Mamdani spoke only briefly with King Charles, but sent a very public message about the Koh-i-Noor diamond.
Chapel Hill weighs possible smaller town council, longer mayor term
The change would reverse a structure that has been in place since 1975.
Theetge firing is one big public relations stunt
Opinion: Firing Theetge is not about performance but about a mayor and city manager trying to buy their way out of a political disaster they created.
The LINQ Promenade Celebrates Cinco De Mayo With Food, Drink and Entertainment Specials, May 1 - 5
LAS VEGAS – The LINQ Promenade is celebrating Cinco de Mayo with a weekend-long lineup of food and beverage specials, comedy programming and entertainment options across its open-air destination from Friday, May 1 through Tuesday,
Mamdani says if he speaks to King Charles, he'd tell him to return controversial gem to India
Mayor Zohran Mamdani says he'd encourage King Charles to return the controversial 105.6-carat Koh-i-Noor diamond to India during if the two happen to speak at a 9/11 memorial event in New York City.
Mayor Bass Directs Permitting Reforms to Streamline Housing and Business Development Across Los Angeles
*This news release was originally published and distributed by the Office of Mayor Karen Bass. LOS ANGELES (April 27, 2026) – Today, Mayor Karen Bass announced a sweeping set of changes designed to make it faster and easier to build housing and open businesses in Los Angeles. The reforms will reduce delays in City approval […]
Former Florida governor Charlie Crist is running for St. Petersburg mayor
Former Florida governor and U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist is running for mayor of his hometown of St. Petersburg
Latino businesses on St. Paul’s West Side look to Cinco de Mayo for post-Metro Surge boost
Latino businesses in St. Paul and Minneapolis hard-hit by Operation Metro Surge are hoping that Cinco de Mayo and other summer festivals will help them regain their footing.
Takeaways from the latest California governor’s debate
Eight candidates seeking to become California’s next governor met for an unwieldy debate Tuesday, where the candidates discussed their plans to make the state more affordable and sought to gain ground in an unsettled field. Xavier Becerra emphasized his past jobs as HHS secretary and California attorney general. But he also put aside a nice guy reputation with a few shots at his opponents. San Joe Mayor Matt Mahan pushed back on California’s gas tax, calling it regressive and arguing that rural and working-class Californians pay more to protect the roads than “wealthy EV owners.” And he said everyone else on stage had healthcare wrong.
Vancouver celebrates Small Business Month in May -
On Monday, May 4, Vancouver Mayor Anne McEnerny-Ogle will proclaim the month of May “Small Business Month” in Vancouver. The designation coincides with
Exclusive | Bruce Blakeman blasts Hochul, Mamdani over pied-à-terre tax proposal: 'Losing businesses and jobs each and every day'
Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, who is currently running for governor, blasted Gov. Kathy Hochul and Mayor Mamdani’s pied-à-terre tax proposal in an interview with The Post.
Can LA Mayor Karen Bass survive her mistakes and climb the political ladder?
If her stumbles during and after the wildfires stop Mayor Karen Bass at one term, she'd be joining other LA mayors who went no further than City Hall.
Paris and Lyon prepare as Nice mayor opposes 2030 Olympics ice hockey venue
French organisers consider Lyon or Paris for ice hockey due to political impasse in Nice over its stadium plan.
'Put blame where it belongs:' Mayor, business owners & lawmakers react to Moxham shootings
Mayor, businesses react to Moxham shootings
Providence Mayor Smiley to launch reelection campaign, facing challenger with momentum
No incumbent mayor has ever lost a primary in Providence, but state Representative David Morales has run a more visible campaign to date.
Sadiq Khan may try to stop Scotland Yard signing Palantir contract
Exclusive: Mayor raises concerns about using public money to support firms ‘who act contrary to London’s values’
Why 2 former Charlotte councilmen say I-77 tolls could decide 2027 mayor’s race
Tariq Bokhari and Larken Egleston predict several City Council members will run for mayor in 2027.
Binational soccer tournament returns to Laredo for Cinco de Mayo
A cross-border soccer tournament in Laredo will celebrate Cinco de Mayo and strengthen ties with Nuevo Laredo.
Mamdani in the hot seat after first veto derails bipartisan effort to combat antisemitism: 'Disappointed'
New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani is vetoing a bill targeting antisemitism that would expand security restrictions on protests at education sites.
Court rules Buffalo comptroller must issue bonds for proposed capital project
Mayor Ryan says the new decision will allow Buffalo to move forward with critical infrastructure projects.
Social media erupts after Mamdani's far-left supporters turn on him over homeless shelter: 'Oops'
East Village voters who backed Mayor Zohran Mamdani by a 40-point margin are now suing to stop a homeless shelter plan, drawing conservative criticism online.
NWSL deal reflects City Hall power struggle between Hardin and Ginther
What a NWSL funding vote shows about the deepening divide between Mayor Ginther and Council President Hardin ahead of a possible 2027 clash.
Big Business Fears Mamdani. Its Workers Gave Him Big Bucks.
Nearly 2,000 employees at member firms of the big business Partnership for New York City donated to Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral campaign — while CEOs spent millions opposing him.
Mayor Mamdani floats delays to pension fund payments
Council Speaker Julie Menin proposed a similar idea to save more than $1 billion a year.
NYC immigration commissioner talks Trump, immigration crackdown
Faiza Ali said she supports the mayor’s position on abolishing ICE.
Albany mayor signs inclusionary zoning law amendment
Part of this includes creating a fund to support programs for both emergency renter protections.
Madrid Presents the Transformation Project of the Former Olympic Aquatic Center Site into a Multifunctional Complex for Sports, Entertainment, and Education
Barsento, the joint venture formed by Live Nation, Oak View Group (OVG), and Atlético de Madrid, has today presented the transformation project of the former Olympic Aquatic Center site alongside the Mayor of Madrid, José Luis Martínez-Almeida. The initiative will breathe new life into the unfinished Aquatic Center building, transforming…
Ami Chen Mills envisions a mayorship with more community conversations, leading to more people engaged in politics
Ami Chen Mills, an educator, writer and activist, aims to bring more community involvement to city government should she become Santa Cruz's next mayor. She aspires to be an educator in office, too, with the hope of getting more people excited about and engaged in politics.
Bass, Barger meets with Trump to push for L.A. fire recovery funds
The mayor and county supervisor said they had a "high-level discussion" with the president, sharing stories about what fire survivors are experiencing day to day.
Mayor Lurie moves S.F. homeless street-outreach teams to health department
The Lurie administration has increasingly emphasized the health needs of people on the street
Including A 20,000-Cap Arena: Live Nation, OVG & Atlético Madrid To Build Entertainment, Sports & Educational Complex In Spanish Capital
Barsento, a joint venture formed by Live Nation, Oak View Group (OVG), and Atlético de Madrid, alongside the Mayor of Madrid, José Luis Martínez-Almeida,
Partisan politics jolt proposed JEA rate increases
Jacksonville Republican leaders and a Miami political committee's text message attack proposed JEA rate increase and blame Mayor Donna Deegan for it.
Fremont Street Experience to host free Cinco de Mayo entertainment
All three stages will feature nonstop performances from noon to 2 a.m.
Former New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu was asked if he’ll run for president. See his answer.
“People say, ‘What, are you going to run for president?” Landrieu told the network. “Maybe.”
Third party mayor finds no honeymoon from partisan politics
Jay Doyle was 100 days into his first term as Mayor of Georgetown. He hadn’t been counting up, he said. He had been counting down. “I was retired, living a nice, peaceful life, and this just throws your life into chaos,” Doyle said. “I think it’s intended to be a part time job. It’s anything […]
Health & Human Services warning NC about Legionnaires' disease after increase in cases
Legionnaires' disease is a severe form of pneumonia caused by the bacterium known as Legionella. According to Mayo Clinic, most people who catch Legionnaires' disease breathe in the bacteria from water or soil.
NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani describes his relationship with Trump as 'honest, direct and productive'
Mamdani’s comments about Trump came a day before the president criticized the mayor’s proposal to raise property taxes on wealthy New York City homeowners.
Editorial: Let’s get some ‘Pothole Politics’ here from Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s New York
Sewer socialism might not be as bad as it sounds.
Obama meets Mamdani in New York City before reading to preschoolers
Former President Barack Obama has met privately with New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani before joining together to read to preschoolers at a child care center in the Bronx | 830 WCCO
Obama meets Mamdani in New York City before reading to preschoolers
Former President Barack Obama has met privately with New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani before joining together to read to preschoolers at a child care center in the Bronx | 100.1 FM and AM 1020 KDKA
Obama meets Mamdani in New York City before reading to preschoolers
Former President Barack Obama has met privately with New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani before joining together to read to preschoolers at a child care center in the Bronx.
Mamdani and Obama set to meet face-to-face in New York City
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani will meet with former President Barack Obama on Saturday at a child care event in New York City, a source familiar told CNN.
‘We’re taxing the rich’: Kevin O’Leary and Bill de Blasio debate NYC Mayor Mamdani’s new tax on second homes
Mayor speaks on 'politics' regarding funding at risk
Houston Mayor John Whitmire talks one-on-one with FOX 26's Sherman Desselle about the mounting pressure against the city's policy for police and ICE.
The Business Journal wins Fresno EDC Community Impact Award
The Fresno Business Journal received the Fresno County Economic Development Corp.'s Community Impact Award Thursday evening.
Mayor Mamdani attends Black Maternal Health Week event in Brooklyn
Mayor Wamp reassures ‘smooth transition’ for relocation of business incubator
The announcement was met with pushback and concerns from other commissioners and the current tenant of the Business Development Center.
Council demands more transparency from Mayor Mamdani on mental health response program
The City Council on Thursday passed legislation that requires the mayor’s office to submit regular reports tracking the performance of B-HEARD.
Faneuil Hall needs 'a shot of adrenaline,' its businesses say – and they want to be part of the plan
As Mayor Wu touts plans to make the marketplace the next catalyst for downtown growth, business owners there say they want a seat at the table.
Cosm Breaks Ground on Immersive Entertainment Venue in Downtown Cleveland
CLEVELAND — Cosm, along with Bedrock and Rock Entertainment Group, have broken ground on a new entertainment venue located at the intersection of East 4th Street, Prospect Avenue and Huron Road in downtown Cleveland. Dubbed Cosm Cleveland, the venue will sit directly across from Rocket Arena (formerly Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse), home of the NBA’s Cleveland Cavaliers and AHL’s Cleveland Monsters. The two professional sports franchises are owned by Dan Gilbert, founder of Rocket Mortgage, Bedrock and Rock Entertainment Group. Spanning approximately 64,000 square feet and rising three stories, Cosm Cleveland will comprise two programmatic elements: The Dome and The Hall. Through Cosm’s proprietary technology called Shared Reality, the venue will merge a stadium-like atmosphere with state-of-the-art visuals in a communal setting. Rossetti Architects designed Cosm Cleveland, and Bedrock is leading the development. The venue, which will anchor Bedrock’s Rock Block mixed-use development, is slated to open in 2027. “This is a major milestone for our downtown Gateway District, and the arrival of Cosm is a testament to our community’s spirit and resilience,” says Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb. “This incredible venue will enhance our city’s reputation as a hub for sports and entertainment, drawing visitors from near and far to experience a…
Zohran Mamdani reflects on his first 100 days as NYC mayor, and what else is left to do
Through his first 100 days as mayor of New York City, Zohran Mamdani has focused on “pothole politics” — a blend of high-level legislative wins and intense focus on everyday essential services that keep the city running. The 34-year-old mayor has delivered on progressive campaign promises, from more funding for child care to new taxes on the ultrawealthy. He views his government as a model for how Democrats can deliver on policies that benefit the working class.In this episode of NPR’s Newsmakers, Mamdani sits down with host Leila Fadel at City Hall to discuss his first 100 days in office, his approach to working with President Trump and the message he believes Democrats should deliver during this year’s midterm elections.NPR's Newsmakers is where you'll find NPR's biggest interviews. We post new episodes as soon as they're available -- any day of the week. Follow or watch the show wherever you get podcasts.Newsmakers relies on supporters who value independent journalism and a free press. Join NPR+ today to support our work and get perks from the podcasts you trust. Go to plus.npr.org.
Mamdani’s Tax Return: $1,600 From Rapping and $131,000 From Politics
In their 2025 joint tax return, Mayor Zohran Mamdani and his wife, Rama Duwaji, reported a combined income of roughly $145,000, including about $10,000 that she earned from art work.
The Politics Hour: D.C. budget and MD GA wrap up
Maryland State Sen. Cheryl Kagan on rising utility costs, immigration enforcement legislation, and election reforms. D.C. Councilmember Doni Crawford on the Mayor's proposed budget.
In Mamdani’s NYC, sewer socialism is out. Pothole politics is in.
The mayor's governing philosophy has gotten a rebrand.
Redefining health and value as we age
Explore Mayo Clinic’s Aging Forward podcast with Sir Muir Gray on healthy aging—fitness, prevention, self-care, and community support for longevity and purpose.
Salt Lake County Mayor shares more details on Salt Palace remodel
More details are emerging about the reconstruction plans coming to the Salt Palace Convention Center.
Sonia Sotomayor apologizes for public comments about Brett Kavanaugh on immigration
Justice Sonia Sotomayor issued a highly unusual public apology to a colleague Wednesday, saying her criticism of Justice Brett Kavanaugh was unfair.
LA hotel leaders warn Mayor Bass' $30 wage mandate is killing business ahead of World Cup, Olympics
Los Angeles hotels are "sounding alarm bells" over a $30-per-hour minimum wage law, according to an AHLA report citing reduced hiring and canceled investments.
Ohio State urban science center celebrates 25 years
The Center for Urban and Regional Analysis (CURA) at The Ohio State University celebrated its 25th anniversary with a festive brunch and commendations from the Ohio House of Representatives and Senate, as well as from Columbus Mayor Andrew Ginther.Founded in 2001, CURA’s mission is research and outreach to foster more sustainable, resilient an...
Savannah Mayor's Small Business Conference registration open. Spots go fast
Savannah's Mayor's Small Business Conference and Small Business Week offer networking, resources, and events for local entrepreneurs.
Harrisburg appoints new business administrator; council concerned with his experience, hasty vote
Harrisburg has a new chief of staff. At a meeting Tuesday, City Council approved Antonio Megna as the new business administrator, a position that has been vacant since a legal battle between council and the mayor resulted in the former office-holder’s termination. Megna previously served as the special assistant to the business administrator for about […]
Mayor picks first site for city-owned grocery
Mayor Mamdani selected East Harlem to be the first location for his city-run grocery stores, aimed at giving New Yorkers cheaper staples.
Mayor Jones seeks business input on zoning rules for private detention facilities
SAN ANTONIO - Mayor Gina Ortiz Jones is asking the city’s economic development leaders to weigh in on a proposed zoning ordinance that would regulate where non-
Dallas mayor Eric Johnson on the city as a prime business and financial destination
Dallas mayor Eric Johnson on why his city is becoming one of the prime destinations for business and finance
Longtime Mayo's customers share fond memories as closing looms
In the final weeks for the family-owned business, the 'fun' continues amid close-out sales.
Apopka voters to decide on next Mayor in Tuesday Runoff
The runoff will be decided tonight.
Mayors Bring Time-Tested Tools to a New Era of Politics
America’s mayors share challenges — and a unique power to address them — says Oklahoma City Mayor David Holt.
REMSA Health leaders 'perplexed' by Sparks push to consider other ambulance options
Top REMSA Health officials are pushing back against Sparks Mayor Ed Lawson's push to consider other emergency medical service options in the region, saying his
NYC Mayor Mamdani touts ‘pothole politics’ wins in first 100 days in shift of focus from campaign
Mayor Zohran Mamdani touted his administration’s early wins at a campaign style rally in Queens Sunday to mark his first 100 days in office.
Bob Buckhorn becomes 10th candidate to enter Mayor’s race, will reach ‘every voter’
Buckhorn enters the race as the immediate frontrunner.
Mamdani leans into ‘pothole politics’ at 100-day rally, picks East Harlem for first city-run grocery store
Mayor Zohran Mamdani used his 100-day rally Sunday night to argue that the next phase of his first term will be shaped by what he called “pothole politics” —
Zohran Mamdani celebrates ‘pothole politics’ in a raucous rally marking 100 days as NYC mayor
Having just marked his first 100 days as New York mayor, Zohran Mamdani told a roaring crowd of supporters, city workers and political allies his administration has already delivered evidence a democratic socialist can, in fact, govern.
Zohran Mamdani touted socialist philosophy of 'pothole politics' while reviewing first 100 days as mayor
"I was elected as a Democratic socialist," he said in a speech on his first 100 days as mayor. "And I will govern as a Democratic socialist."
At 100 days, Mamdani leans into ‘pothole politics’ and child care push
The mayor focused on child care and worker gains, arguing that basic services are key to rebuilding trust in government.
Mamdani Embraces Socialist ‘Pothole Politics’ in Knockdown Center Barn Burner
The mayor marked his first 100 days on the job in an event aimed at celebrating city workers while extending the energy of his successful campaign — with a surprise appearance by Sen. Benie Sanders.
Minneapolis public safety debate back in a familiar place: anger, political squabbling
The Minneapolis City Council’s rejection of Mayor Jacob Frey’s public safety commissioner renewed the angry divisions over policing that have characterized city politics in recent years.
Mayor Helena Moreno eyes a new City Hall, courthouse: ‘We have waited long enough’
New Orleans Mayor Helena Moreno is taking on a problem that generations of mayors before her have tried — and failed — to solve: The need for a new City Hall.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Mamdani cleans up trash in the Bronx on his 100th day
Mayor Zohran Mamdani marked 100 days in office on Friday by cleaning up part of Soundview in the Bronx.
Mamdani hits 100 days as mayor of New York City
As Mamdani, a Democrat, marks an early milestone in his mayoralty, it remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to leverage his fame into achieving the progressive policy proposals that propelled him to office.
Does Eric Adams Now Have Albanian Citizenship?
Several Albanian outlets have reported that the former mayor has been granted Albanian citizenship and a passport by the nation’s president.
The sports stars, hip-hop artists, and celebrity magicians playing a role in pending Supreme Court petitions
During oral argument in January on an Idaho law barring transgender athletes from competing in girls’ and women’s sports, Justice Sonia Sotomayor briefly reflected on the spotlight that comes with […]
From Koch to Adams, history shows rocky starts are common for NYC mayors
Past mayors dealt with budget crises or economic downturns early on.
Slotkin talks to Ohio voters amid questions about her national ambitions
Elissa Slotkin's national tour of states Trump won in 2024 has included Iowa and Ohio this week, two states pivotal to capturing the White House.
Possible presidential candidate rallies Dems in Cincinnati with Pureval
Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin and Cincinnati Mayor Aftab Pureval discussed broadening the Democratic Party's appeal in the Midwest.
Mamdani balances governing with delivering on affordability agenda
“I promise you this: If you are a New Yorker, I am your mayor,” Mayor Zohran Mamdani said during his inauguration.
‘Mayor of Kingstown’ Adds to Cast for Fifth & Final Season
The new season will have an abbreviated episode count.
‘Mayor of Kingstown’ Adds to Cast for Fifth & Final Season
The new season will have an abbreviated episode count.
Colorado Springs’ mayor has a new chief of staff. It’s the guy he trounced in the election.
Mayor Yemi Mobolade on Thursday named Wayne Williams his chief of staff. Williams, a Republican who is Colorado’s former secretary of state, lost to Mobolade in the 2023 mayoral election.
Registration open for 2026 Mayor’s Small Business Conference
SAVANNAH, Ga. (WSAV) – Registration officially opened Thursday for the annual Savannah 2026 Mayor’s Small Business Conference. This one-day conference is hosted by the City’s Economic …