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Meet William Savitt, Sam Altman's lawyer who beat Elon Musk before
A former cab driver and rock band singer, William Savitt is now at the top of an elite law firm with experience defeating Elon Musk in court.
Liao: Taiwan belongs at the World Health Assembly
Taiwan is a reliable partner and a force for good in the world, and global health cannot afford to ignore Taiwan. T
Sam Altman says Elon Musk can come to his ChatGPT 5.5 party
Sam Altman and Elon Musk, OpenAI cofounders turned rivals, are locked in a legal battle over the direction of the company.
🚨 Osasuna and Barcelona name XIs for La Liga clash
Barcelona look to remain on the march from their seat of power on Spain's east coast as Hansi Flick's troops take to the road and lock horns with Osasuna this evening. Blaugrana are in a rich vein of ...
Why is everyone talking about watermelon buttholes?
A watermelon expert offers tips on picking the tastiest summer fruit (no buttholes required).
Dispute over politics leads to shooting. Lawyers argue over who is at fault
Emmanuel Mathews, 80, was arrested on a felonious assault charge and released on bond after shooting a 55-year-old man in a Chagrin Falls park.
Disability Belongs Reveals New Cohort For 2026 Entertainment Lab
Disability Belongs has announced a new virtual cohort of participants for its 2026 Entertainment Lab.
Disability Belongs Reveals Virtual Cohort Participants For 2026 Entertainment Lab
EXCLUSIVE: Disability Belongs, a national disability-led nonprofit known for creating systemic change in how society views and values people with disabilities, has announced a new virtual cohort of pa...
Spring Health and Alma Complete Combination, Creating the First Lifelong Mental Health Platform
/PRNewswire/ -- Spring Health, a global mental health company built on one AI-native platform, today announced the successful closing of its acquisition of...
Second Chances In The Workforce
People certainly make mistakes — a lot of them through the course of a lifetime, and some that are serious enough to warrant jail time. However, for those mistakes — or crimes — that are less serious, it has been difficult for released and rehabilitated felons to re-enter a workforce that has already labeled and […]
🚨 Official: Barça unveil special shirt for El Clasico!
Do you approve of the choice?In 10 days, FC Barcelona and Real Madrid will meet one last time this season for a Clasico that could definitively decide the fate of La Liga.As every year since Spotify b...
4 things you missed from Musk v. Altman trial this week
Elon Musk faced another day of cross-examination. Jared Birchall, Musk's wealth manager, was the next witness called in the blockbuster OpenAI trial.
Thanks to Musk v. Altman lawsuit, it's now public record that Gabe Newell emailed Elon Musk to get his pal Hideo Kojima a tour of SpaceX and OpenAI
The man really wants to go to space.
Launch of Advanced Learning Academy expands lifelong educational opportunities in public health | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
People interested in exploring public health at all stages of their careers can now do so through the Advanced Learning Academy.
Can NASA and SpaceX really build a moon base in the next 10 years?
Experts say building a lunar colony within the next decade, as NASA and Elon Musk want to, will require finding solutions to problems we don't yet fully understand.
Exploding watermelons and sagebrush: Teton Science Schools' science fair showcases youthful inquiry
Students tackled their hottest scientific questions in the lead-up to Teton Science Schools' science fair last week. A watermelon explosion was underwhelming, but the lessons learned weren't.
'Lifestyle analysis' found Moorhead business owner hid income while collecting SNAP
A Minnesota business owner is facing several felony charges after investigators say she filed false tax returns while fraudulently receiving SNAP benefits.
Moorhead business owner defiant in face of 24 felony charges alleging tax crimes, SNAP benefits fraud
Her taxable income ranged from a low of $19,430 in 2019 to a high of $243,618 in 2024. Yet, she reported zero income.
Julian Alvarez: Diego Simeone says Arsenal interested in signing Atletico Madrid forward along with PSG and Barcelona
Diego Simeone has confirmed Arsenals interest in Atletico Madrid forward Julian Alvarez; Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain also named as suitors; Arsenal face Atletico in Champions League semi-final first leg on Tuesday in Madrid
Bellevue-based T-Mobile ties up with Musk's Starlink
T-Mobile is teaming up with controversial billionaire Elon Musk's Starlink to launch a new business broadband network.
Elon Musk boosts New Yorker Sam Altman profile on X as trial kicks off
Elon Musk boosted Ronan Farrow's profile questioning Sam Altman's trustworthiness as the two tech titans face each other in court.
'Put blame where it belongs:' Mayor, business owners & lawmakers react to Moxham shootings
Mayor, businesses react to Moxham shootings
Delap wants to stay at Chelsea
Liam Delap wants to stay and fight for his Chelsea career, Barcelona contact Atletico Madrid over a possible Julian Alvarez transfer, Steven Gerrard could be in contention to replace Scott Parker as manager of Burnley, plus more.
Altman makes courtroom appearance as potential jurors slam AI, Musk
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman was spotted at a California courthouse, where some potential jurors shared unfavorable views about AI — and Elon Musk
New Family Entertainment Coming to MSC World Asia - Cruise Industry News
MSC Cruises has unveiled new family entertainment options aboard its latest ship, the MSC World Asia. Once it debuts in the Mediterranean in December 2026, the ship will sail seven-night itineraries to destinations including Barcelona, Marseille, Messina, Civitavecchia for Rome, Naples and Valletta. According to a statement, the ship is set to boast an expanded family entertainment offering alongside the already announced venues.…
The Musk v Altman trial: Who's who in the tech titan showdown
Elon Musk takes Microsoft and OpenAI's Sam Altman to trial on Monday. Witnesses include Satya Nadella, Shivon Zilis, Mira Murati, and Greg Brockman.
Insider claims Barcelona star has decided to leave this summer
Barcelona could be set to part ways with multiple heavyweights this summer, as preparations are made for fresh blood to be added into Hansi Flick’s squad. Marc-Andre ter Stegen is a leading candidat...
Elon Musk is taking Sam Altman's credibility to court
Elon Musk's lawsuit against Sam Altman asks jurors to dig into grievances that stretch back to OpenAI's founding.
🗞️Front pages: the maths for Barça's title celebrations
Barcelona’s win over Getafe opens up an eleven-point gap over Madrid with 18 still left to play for.Barça’s title celebrations are just around the corner after winning in Getafe and taking advant...
Jules Kounde banned for Barcelona’s clash with Osasuna
But he will be back in time for El Clasico.
‘Duck Dynasty’: Longtime Employee Retires After More Than 25 Years
Plus, Willie Robertson fulfills a lifelong dream.
Elon Musk among donors to Cincinnati congressmen
Campaign contribution documents revealed notable donations made to congressional candidates in Greater Cincinnati.
Opinion | The Political Defeats of Elon Musk
His political malpractice will loom large in the history of Trump 2.0.
Sheriff's Office investigates Chelsea business felony theft
The Shelby County Sheriff's Office (SCSO) is searching for the culprit of a felony theft involving a Chelsea business.
How Elon Musk Used SpaceX to Benefit Himself and His Businesses
The rocket maker has been a useful financial tool for Mr. Musk, providing the billionaire with loans and aiding his struggling companies, a Times examination found.
How Elon Musk Used SpaceX to Benefit Himself and His Businesses
The rocket maker has been a useful financial tool for Mr. Musk, providing the billionaire with loans and aiding his struggling companies, a Times examination found.
How Undergraduate Business Education Is Evolving For Real-World Impact
How Elon University is redefining undergraduate business education through hands-on learning, mentorship and real-world experience.
Smoking pot near a Louisiana campus could become a felony: ‘Ever been to an LSU football game?’
Louisiana could soon make it a felony to smoke marijuana within 2,000 feet of any school or college campus in Louisiana as some state leaders say people are flagrantly violating drug laws at college football games.
Is Elon Musk building the AI Avengers?
As the internet digests the SpaceX-Cursor deal, we've got the scoop on another startup Musk explored a partnership with.
SpaceX and Cursor: What smart people are saying about the $60B deal
Partnering with Cursor could be a crucial step for Elon Musk to get ahead of AI rivals like OpenAI and Anthropic.
Elon Musk explores Mistral partnership to take on AI rivals
Musk is eyeing a collaboration with French startup Mistral to help xAI catch Anthropic and OpenAI.
Inside the AI coding startup Elon Musk is betting $60 billion on
The 4-year-old startup just propelled SpaceX in the AI coding race.
SpaceX strikes $60 billion deal for right to buy coding startup Cursor
SpaceX announced a partnership with coding startup Cursor that will give Elon Musk's a major foothold in the AI coding race.
When the CEO Becomes the Brand
Research suggests that Elon Musk’s political stance appears to have reshaped how different groups perceive Tesla. Overall sales trends hint at trouble. The company’s growth stalled in 2024, and deliveries fell 8.5% in 2025. But those headline numbers hide what is happening beneath the surface. When the data is broken down by political orientation and by changes in views of Musk, a more complicated pattern emerges. Among right-leaning respondents and those whose opinion of Musk has improved, Tesla’s brand appeal is significantly higher and willingness to pay exceeds that for many competing brands, including Ford, Chevrolet, and Rivian. Among left-leaning consumers and those whose view of Musk has worsened, the opposite is true: Preference and willingness to pay for Tesla drop sharply. The outcome is not a uniform decline but a polarization of demand. Some consumers appear to feel alienated, while others feel more aligned with the brand. This raises an important strategic question of whether companies can influence purchasing decisions across these divided segments by strengthening the underlying value proposition.
Tennis duo Sabalenka and Alcaraz sweep top Laureus sports honours
Barcelona's Yamal bags Young Sportsperson of the Year accolade a year after winning the Breakthrough award in 2025.
Image: Barcelona finalise next artist for El Clasico shirt
Barcelona are once again blending football with global music culture, and this time, the spotlight is on Olivia Rodrigo.According to Mundo Deportivo, the Catalan giants have already decided the featur...
Chris Dockrill Announces Retirement
Elon Alumnus, Hall Of Fame Inductee Led Phoenix Women's Golf For 27 Seasons
Elon students inducted into Phi Beta Kappa Society
“What’s so brave about being sick?” It’s a question Prosanta Chakrabarty often asked himself in the early days of his ongoing fight against cancer. It wasn’t until initial treatment...
The data behind Delaware's ‘corporate exodus’ tells a different story
Despite Tesla, Dropbox and Coinbase leaving, the state captured a larger share of US business formation in 2024 than before Elon Musk told founders to flee — but there are early warning signs.
Digital Science Introduces Compass by Dimensions to Transform Medical Affairs Publication Insights
Compass unifies citation data and attention metrics in a single solution for real-time publication intelligenceLondon, United Kingdom--(Newsfile Corp. - April 20, 2026) - Digital Science, a leading technology company serving stakeholders across the research ecosystem, today announced the launch of Compass by Dimensions, a dedicated publication impact tracking solution designed for medical affairs teams.Compass - initially available to publication planners and medical affairs professionals in a..
Barcelona winter signing suffers unfortunate knee injury
Barcelona have been handed a concerning update regarding one of their emerging defensive prospects, Patricio Pacifico, following a worrying incident during the recent Barça Atletic fixture against UE...
Barcelona star rejects contract renewal offer
A member of the defensive ranks at La Liga giants Barcelona has knocked back a contract renewal proposal from the club.That’s according to Mundo Deportivo, who highlight Andreas Christensen as the B...
Barcelona to beat Chelsea to signing of highly-rated midfielder
Barcelona are set for a big summer of transfers, as they plan to add extra quality to Hansi Flick’s squad for next season. Sporting director Deco will also oversee more La Masia additions, and the l...
Defender knocks back Barcelona contract offer
Barcelona are gearing up for a huge summer, but before the transfer window opens, they have a number of contract situations to resolve. The big one centres on Robert Lewandowski, but another whose cur...
New megafauna looked like spiky, 30-pound hamster
It took 120 years to figure out the forgotten fossil belonged to an extinct giant echidna.
How much retail workers earned last year at Costco, Walmart, and more
For many US workers, retail is a first job; for others, it's a lifelong career. Here's how much the typical workers made last year at top retailers.
WrestleMania 42: Rhodes banishes McAfee but Orton gets last laugh
With blood soaking Cody Rhodes’ bleach blonde hair, Randy Orton stood over the newly-crowned champion with the belt he believed still rightly belonged to himself.
Is watermelon good for you? Experts explain calories, sugar content
Watermelon is a summer staple known for its refreshing taste and high water content, but many people wonder how healthy it really is.
Barcelona at breaking point over Lewandowski and Rashford decisions
Barcelona are heading into a defining phase of their summer planning, with two major attacking decisions staring right in their face. The situations involving Robert Lewandowski and Marcus Rashford a...
Barcelona finally seeing results as key versatile playmaker finds form
At one point this season, it looked like Dani Olmo was slipping down the pecking order at Barcelona. The Spaniard faced intense competition from Fermin Lopez for the attacking midfield role, with the...
Barcelona Eyes Atlético Madrid's Sorloth As Potential Lewandowski Successor
Barcelona have reportedly initiated contact with Atletico Madrid striker Alexander Sorloth as Hansi Flick seeks a long-term successor for Robert Lewandowski.
21st Amendment Brewery is back in business — New School Beer + Cider
Philadelphia's Evil Genius is bringing beloved 21st Amendment beers, including Hell or High Watermelon, Brew Free! or Die IPA, and more back to its coast-to-coast distribution footprint
Barcelona’s €30m Question For Man United Forward
Rashford’s Barcelona Future in Doubt as Transfer Reality BitesCredit to Marca for the original reporting, which paints an increasingly uncertain picture around Marcus Rashford and his long term futu...
'Allies, not vassals': How Meloni's break with Trump became a political moment for Italy
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is managing the repercussions of a public rebuke from US President Donald Trump this week over the pope, Iran and a defence deal with Israel. It's a rupture that…
Barcelona have plan in place for Hansi Flick contract talks
Barcelona have a number of contract situations to resolve in the lead-up to the summer transfer window, and of them is Hansi Flick’s. The German manager’s current deal expires in 2027, but there i...
Civic belonging in the social media era
Gen Z is politically aware online, but this doesn't always translate to real-world engagement or voting, leading to burnout and fear.
The Science Behind Alaska's Northern Lights
If you want to plan a trip to see the northern lights, Alaska belongs at the top of your list. Here's why – starting with the science.
River City Science Academy teacher arrested, accused ‘grooming’ student using messages on Canva app
A River City Science Academy teacher was arrested Tuesday and charged with felony counts alleging he solicited a romantic relationship with a student and unlawfully used a communication device, the Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office said.
Nastassia Harrison ’28 blends art and science in pursuit of physical therapy through the help of her scholarships
Although she grew up playing nearly every sport in Warren County, North Carolina, Nastassia Harrison ’28 has loved dancing since she was three years old. “My dad would put me in any...
🎥 Raphinha sparks row with Atleti fans after elimination
FC Barcelona's elimination in the Champions League quarter-finals has left an open wound and an unexpected central figure: Raphinha.The Brazilian winger did not hide his frustration after losing to At...
Atletico Madrid 1-2 Barcelona (agg: 3-2): Diego Simeone's men lose on the night but reach Champions League semi-finals
Atletico Madrid reached the Champions League semi-finals for the first time since 2016/17 after a 3-2 aggregate win over Barcelona.
Get Real With SOMD Politics: Roy Alvey Discusses Spending, Development And County Priorities
ST. MARY’S COUNTY, Md. — On a recent episode of “Get Real with Southern Maryland Politics,” host Chris Hill sat down with St. Mary’s County Commissioner President candidate Roy Alvey for a wide-ranging conversation about his background, priorities, and vision for St. Mary’s County. A lifelong St. Mary’s County resident, Alvey emphasized his deep roots in the […]
LIVE: Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona
Follow the build-up and live text commentary of the game as Barcelona look to come back from 2-0 first leg defeat.
How a Florida State University student entrepreneur is building a bakery business for good
A Florida State University student in the Jim Moran College of Entrepreneurship is turning a lifelong health challenge into a purpose-driven business that
Barcelona squad named for Atlético 2nd leg
Hansi Flick has called up 24 players for Tuesday’s clash
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona – Match preview and team news
Atletico Madrid is gearing up for their Champions League quarter-final second leg as they welcome Barcelona to the Riyadh Air Metropolitano on Tuesday.Diego Simeone’s men head into this match with a...
Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona, Champions League: Preview
Barça travel to the capital looking to overturn a two-goal deficit and book a spot in the semis
WECT INVESTIGATES: Hampstead business owner faces felony charge, state investigation
A Hampstead pool contractor faces a felony charge after accusations of taking customers' money and not finishing projects.
Tesla is selling 250 invite-only Model S 'Signatures' for $160,000
Elon Musk's automaker is inviting a select group of fans to purchase limited-edition versions of its soon-to-be-discontinued Model X and S luxury EVs.
Will Musk ever be forced to explain what he did inside DOGE?
Elon Musk was ubiquitous in Washington last spring, wielding unprecedented power helping the Trump administration reshape and, in some cases, dismantle federal agencies across the government.
New disclosures reveal how DOGE actually worked
Depositions offer insight into what Elon Musk’s group was up to. Members describe a club-like atmosphere in which they slashed agencies with little oversight.
As WhatsApp faces lawsuit, Elon Musk launches 'no tracking' messaging app XChat
App will offer encrypted chats, voice and video calls, large group messaging and disappearing messages, initially for iPhone and iPad users only, with no ads or phone number required to sign up
Alabama redshirt freshman QB turns heads with spring game performance
Keelon Russell was a five-star recruit in the 2025 class, and he could be in line to take over under center this fall after an electric spring game.
Ex-Tesla president mimicked Domino's pizza ordering to boost car sales
A former Tesla boss said he and Elon Musk spotted a problem with the carmaker's website. They turned to Domino's for inspiration.
Business People
Ann Bordelon is joining the planned STEM university backed by members of the Walton family as vice president of finance and administration.
Finley: Trump's college sports order is an overreach
President's executive order on transfer portal, NIL has him meddling where he doesn't belong.
Markquese Bell arrested, Cowboys safety facing drug possession charges
Cowboys safety Markquese Bell was arrested on both felony and misdemeanor drug charges. Here's what to know about his arrest.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Atlético Madrid ‘astounded’ by Barcelona’s refereeing complaints
The fallout from Barcelona’s defeat to Atletico Madrid continues to intensify, with the Madrid-based club now responding to the actions taken by Barcelona following the controversial encounter.After...
Barcelona vs Espanyol, La Liga: TV & Streaming, Live Thread
Join us for another Barcelona La Liga adventure!
Early weight gain is linked to lifelong health consequences
Putting on weight earlier in life may be more dangerous than previously thought. Researchers found that early adulthood obesity significantly raises the risk of premature death, especially from major diseases like heart disease and diabetes. The longer the body carries excess weight, the greater the damage appears to be. Interestingly, cancer risk in women didn’t follow this pattern, suggesting other biological factors are at play.
Early weight gain is linked to lifelong health consequences
Putting on weight earlier in life may be more dangerous than previously thought. Researchers found that early adulthood obesity significantly raises the risk of premature death, especially from major diseases like heart disease and diabetes. The longer the body carries excess weight, the greater the damage appears to be. Interestingly, cancer risk in women didn’t follow this pattern, suggesting other biological factors are at play.
This dreadful run that's weighing Mbappé down 🥶
The black cat?This Friday evening, Real Madrid were held to a 1-1 draw at home by Girona on matchday 31 of La Liga.If Barcelona win this Saturday, the Catalans would move nine points clear of Madrid a...
Barcelona face major setback in race for teenage midfield sensation
According to SPORT, Barcelona are closely monitoring Kennet Eichhorn, a highly-rated 16-year-old currently developing at Hertha Berlin. The youngster has emerged as one of the most promising midfield...
Barcelona vs Espanyol – Predicted lineup and team news
Barcelona will look to make it seven La Liga wins in a row when they host Espanyol at the Camp Nou on Saturday.The Catalan giants have dominated this fixture in recent years — Espanyol haven’t bea...
Altoona business owner accused of fraud
The owner and operator of Tipton Construction in Altoona was taken into custody Wednesday for allegedly committing a string of home improvement frauds. John Bailey Tipton II, 44, was arraigned Thursday by Magisterial District Judge Benjamin F. Jones on seven felony counts of making a false statement to induce agreement for home improvement services, five […]
A Big, Moving Party for Better Lung Health
Peggy shares her experience with the Trek Across Maine and how one bike ride has expanded into a lifelong purpose.
Barcelona Complains to UEFA Over 'Incomprehensible Refereeing' After UCL Loss
Barcelona have taken the extraordinary step of filing a formal complaint to UEFA following their controversial 2-0 Champions League defeat to Atletico Madrid.
The ‘oldest octopus’ in the world isn’t an octopus after all, scientists find
The story of a 300-million-year-old fossil has been rewritten after scientists discovered that it doesn’t actually belong to the world’s oldest octopus as previously thought.