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Fresno unemployment rises to 7.8% in August
Fresno County unemployment rose to 7.8% in August as Valley rates remained above California’s average. See how local counties and jobs compare.
Guns Are The Best Narrative Thing That Has Ever Happened To Fire Emblem
As a weapon, they're fine. As a storytelling accessory, they're peak
Murphy wades into midterms, CT voter turnout: CT politics news
Plus: Connecticut's unemployment rate falls as private sector jobs grow, and Connecticut's education department puts focus on STEM equity.
Triune Entertainment Holds Auditions for Exciting World Premiere
Triune Entertainment Holds Auditions for Exciting World Premiere
Chargers vs. Raiders I preview, prediction and how to watch
Las Vegas Raiders (1-0) AT LA Chargers (0-1)When: Sunday 1:05 pmWhere: SoFi StadiumTV: CBS-2 (Los Angeles), CBS-8 (San Diego), Paramount/NFL+ Radio: Los Angeles: KYSR-FM (98.
TST Best Bets: September 18, 2026
Friday night’s college football slate features four undefeated teams looking to prove themselves against conference competition.No. 22 Houston travels to face No. 13 Texas Tech in a ranked Big 12 matchup, while No. 5 Miami visits Wake Forest for an ACC battle between 2-0 teams. With both favorites facing their toughest tests of the young season, we’re breaking down the best bet from each game.For all of your college football betting picks, here are today’s TST Best Bets, brought to you by BetOnl
Snap is betting $3.5 billion on AR glasses that businesses can use as CEO Evan Spiegel sees a post-smartphone era
Snap CEO Evan Spiegel says the era of the smartphone is coming to an end—with smart glasses being the future.
CACI wins up to $1.5B contract
Reston-based Fortune 500 government contractor CACI International has won a contract worth up to $1.5 billion to support the U.S. Central Command and its
Minnesota Senate candidate Peggy Flanagan wants to ban prior authorization for health care
MINNESOTA (KFGO) - On "News and Views", Democratic Minnesota Senate candidate Peggy Flanagan shared she wants ...
Millie Bobby Brown appears to welcome 2nd baby, shares new photo
Millie Bobby Brown and Jake Bongiovi attend the Enola Holmes 3 NY Premiere on June 25, 2026, in New York City. (Roy Rochlin/Getty Images for Netflix)
Engrams Embedding Entendre: Codesign for Efficient DRAM/SSD Offloading
Engram extends standard token embeddings with learned multi-token lookups. Recurring local patterns retrieve vectors directly, reducing the need to reconstruct them through attention and feed-forward layers. With Engram model architecture optimization, it allows for lower HBM capacity to be needed for models at the same quality. This does not mean there won’t be an insane demand for HBM but it just means that model architecture will continue to innovate around constraints. This model architecture design is naturally codesigned for parameter offloading: each token accesses a few embedding rows whose addresses depend on token IDs, not hidden states. The runtime can prefetch those rows from host DRAM while earlier layers compute, keeping the table outside HBM without transferring entire weight matrices. Our Memory model contains our latest estimates of quarter by quarter HBM, DRAM, & NAND supply and demand. Offloading frees HBM for model weights and KV cache, potentially supporting larger batches or more concurrent sessions. When DRAM becomes the next constraint, NVMe offers another tier. Recommendation systems already cache frequently or recently accessed embedding rows in faster memory while backing colder rows with SSDs. After NVIDIA roadmap had to change due to massively despec’ing Rubin Ultra from 1024GB to now ~200GB of HBM per chip, model architecture optimizations like emgram maybe helpful. Our DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash configuration uses roughly 189 GiB of memory for Engram. We replace it with a memory-mapped (mmap) file and measure serving performance with offload to SSD. Later on in our report, we will show our Engram offloading experiments along with the official InferenceX agentic inference serving results on Engram models like DeepSeekv4.1 Flash across all 6 NVIDIA GPU SKUs along with MI355X. Unsurprisingly, the CUDA Moat is still mogging MI355X on the ultra popular DeepSeekV4.1 Flash model. We also show how even on high capacity HBM SKUs, offloading emgrams to DRAM could result in even better performance for most of the pareto than keeping the emgram in HBM. Our benchmark has been widely reproduced, validated and/or supported by almost every major buyer of compute from Google Cloud to Microsoft Azure to Oracle, to Meta and many more. Furthermore, it has the support of the ML community including from vLLM, LMCache, SGLang, PyTorch, Huggingface and the support of major labs like OpenAI, MiniMax, ZAI, Qwen, Moonshot Kimi, etc. Star the InferenceX GitHub repository if you find the open-source benchmark and data useful!. InferenceX is the only inference benchmark in the world to have TPUv7, Jalapeño, Nvidia Rubin NVL72, AMD, and soon, SambaNova and Trainium. Due to how realistic AgentX scenario is to real world agentic inference workloads, AMD has committed to collaborating on MI455X UALoE72 too. DeepSeek did not release the original paper’s two trained Engram models. We replicated its setup on fineweb-edu using the released code and training hyperparameters, at an estimated 6E18 FLOPs per run. We observed the same U-shape scaling: Engram improved performance over pure MoE baselines. We also reproduced DeepSeek’s results, where earlier-layer representations with Engram resembled those of later layers. Like the original Engram paper, it is possible to probe Engram’s gate scores to see what n-grams DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash makes the most use of. Our gate scan finds names, code fragments, relational phrasing, and boilerplate. These examples prioritize interesting-ness over gate strength. One unexpected result was Wright : Ace Attorney. These examples suggest learned memory optimizes the training objective, not a judgment of which facts deserve storage. Licenses, bibliography fragments, API scaffolding, and website furniture can provide prediction shortcuts, so the value of additional Engram capacity may depend on what survives data preparation. This does not show that table capacity is “wasted”: the evaluation-corpus scan establishes neither training exposure nor the capacity occupied by each category. For offloading, strong gates do not identify cache-hot rows. Low gates do not automatically save reads either: computing the gate requires the retrieved key and undoes the performance gain of a fused kernel. Skipping reads would require a separate usefulness predictor before retrieval. In the original paper’s inference-time ablation, factual-knowledge benchmarks retained just 29–44% of their original performance, while reading comprehension retained 81–93%. This is due to the training–inference mismatch. The resulting degradation therefore measures this trained model’s dependence on Engram, not the performance difference between models trained with and without it. In our ablations, suppressing Engram worsens token likelihood across all evaluated domains, especially encyclopedia text and several code corpora. Surprisingly, GSM8K accuracy stays within measured run-to-run variation and removing Engram has no effect. Engram is not a detachable dictionary beside an unchanged MoE. Removing it changes downstream features and expert selection. We tested whether rerouting hurts or compensates by holding tokens fixed in a teacher-forced experiment on CRUXEval, a code-reasoning benchmark of small Python functions where the model predicts a function’s output from its code and an input, and scoring the reference answer. Removing Engram raised answer loss from 0.2848 to 0.3093 bits/token. Forcing the ablated model to use the original Engram-on expert choices made it worse still, at 0.3375 bits/token. Rerouting partially compensates for the missing memory. Memory features and expert selection work together, rather than following a clean “memory stores facts; experts reason” division. On the same CRUXeval, removing Engram during either phase reduced accuracy and increased generated tokens; removing it throughout produced the largest changes. Keeping Engram for prefill leads to more correct answers than keeping for decode likely due to semantically richer KV cache transferred to decode workers, allowing it to mitigate some of the performance loss. Engram’s table is large, but each lookup is small. DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash requests 24 rows at each of two Engram layers, about 12.4 KiB per processed token position across the model, or 3.1 KiB per GPU when split across four GPUs. Currently as of Day 7 since Model Release, MI355X is still 2-4x worse performance per dollar compared to B200 even when normalized by Mi355X’s lower TCO. Our full total cost of ownership breakdown comes from our AI Cloud TCO Model along with monthly market surveys of over 100+ gpu clouds & gpu cloud customers. On the Day 0 release of DeepSeekv4.1 Flash, NVIDIA vLLM works out of the box with zero issues across all 6 SKUs: H100, H200, B200, B300, GB200, GB300! This was thanks to the amazing work by the NVIDIA & Interact teams! In comparison, AMD vLLM did not work on day 0 for DeepSeekv4.1 Flash.Source: SemiAnalysis InferenceX AMD’s vLLM documentation points to using vllm/vllm-openai-rocm:deepseekv41-flash-0909, but from hour 0 of the model release to hour 23, AMD has not publicly released the image. AMD claims, “SPEED IS THE MOAT,” yet it has still not released it by the 23rd hour. We wish that, going forward, the AMD team has a better process for hour 0 model releases. Eventually when they did publicly release for “day 0” image support, performance-wise, it is currently up to 14.8x worse perf per dollar than H200 and up to 42x worse perf per dollar than B200/B300. The power of the CUDA MOAT is NVIDIA’s collaboration with its massive 6 million-developer community ecosystem including most of the vLLM & SGLang & Tokenspeed maintainers which means that CUDA is optimized on day 0. Overall, AMD did make significant improvements but the performance per dollar is still currently 2-4x worse than B200. AgentX Engram DRAM Offloading Improving Performance The HBM and DRAM offload use the same GPU kernel to select and dequantize rows. With HBM, it reads GPU memory; with Unified Virtual Addressing (UVA), it reads pinned host memory directly. Both support full decode graphs. Moving the table into HBM accelerates only the sparse lookup, leaving decoder computation and communication unchanged, resulting in little overall benefit while consuming memory otherwise available to KV cache. Another benefit of Engram offloaded to DRAM which means you can reduce the communication overhead by using less HBM GPUs per replica. For example, when enabling Engram offloading on B300, we are able to switch from TP4 to now TP2 which improves the pareto curve by up to 1.6x. When iso-model quality, less HBM is required as the engrams could be offloaded to host DRAM. Thus HBM bandwidth matters way more than HBM capacity. For inference workloads where memory bandwidth matters the most, 4-hi HBM provides the best $/bandwidth and therefore lowest cost per token. If China continues to make more and more revolutionary model architecture innovations, soon it could potentially 0Hi HBM stacks. [ ](https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/long-live-the-short-king-why-4-hi) [ Long Live the Short King: Why 4-hi HBM Wins ](https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/long-live-the-short-king-why-4-hi) Myron Xie, Bryan Shan, and 3 others · Sep 13 [ Read full story ](https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/long-live-the-short-king-why-4-hi) Moreover, on B300 and week-0 stack, moving the Engram table back to HBM did not improve results and stay within run-to-run variance. This is a result of the work optimizing DRAM offload, such as async, and overlap. SSD Offloading On B200, we created a unoptimized vLLM fork and stored the Engram tables in memory-mapped files on local SSDs. File backing lets the OS reclaim table pages when other applications need RAM. Pages already cached in memory can be served without reading the SSD again. Furthermore, note that we were unable to turn on GDS The unoptimized SSD implementation changes how rows reach the GPU. It copies row IDs to the CPU, deduplicates them, gathers the requested rows into pinned buffers, copies those rows back to the GPU and dequantizes them. This work runs between segments of the GPU execution graph. Native UVA performs row selection and dequantization directly on the GPU, avoiding the CPU round trip. A warm filesystem cache removes physical SSD reads, but leaves the coordination, row gathering and transfers. This is why a file already cached in RAM can still perform worse than a pinned DRAM table. The comparison measures the whole serving path; it does not separate the time spent on each of these operations. B200 DRAM dominates both measured SSD serving curves in total tokens per dollar and P90 interactivity. Near 125 tokens/s/user, DRAM delivers 121 million total tokens per dollar versus 52 million for SSD. For production serving, SSD offloading is likely not worth the tradeoff. On the B200 configurations we measured, SSD offloading loses on both measures: every observed SSD point has a DRAM alternative that delivers higher P90 interactivity and more total tokens per dollar. The only points where Cheaper storage does not automatically produce a cheaper inference service. Moving Engram to SSD leaves the same four expensive GPUs and the rest of the server in place. Reclaiming RAM only creates an economic benefit if it enables a cheaper server configuration or additional useful capacity. The current unoptimized path provides neither benefit, and the filesystem cache still consumes RAM when table pages are resident. Next we will look at the mechanisms and specific implementation of ngrams from DeepSeekv4.1 Flash, LongCat, Qwen3.8 Flash Next.
Diamondbacks lose further ground on off day
Diamondbacks News (San Diego Union-Tribune) Padres rout Rockies, add to lead in playoff race The Padres came down from the mountains with the margin they need after winning on Thursday by a large margin. With a 9-2 victory over the Rockies, the Padres increased their lead in the race for the final National League playoff […]
How much does playoff viewership increase from round to round?
When the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays faced off in the Wild Card Series in 2022, just 1.76 million people tuned in. Yet, three years later, when the same two teams met in the American League Championship Series, Game 1 featured an audience of 5.19 million people. You can see this in all major…
Scientists Have Uncovered Previously Hidden Microbial Activity on Human Skin
The most abundant microbes on your skin may not be the ones doing most of the work. Human skin supports vast communities of bacteria, fungi, and viruses that can influence its protective barrier, immune defenses, and overall health. Yet simply cataloging these organisms cannot reveal which ones are active, how they respond to their surroundings,
Random: Fire Emblem: Fortune's Weave Switch 2 Physical Hides A Neat Nod To Three Houses
Follow the Leda
Fabian Hurzeler explains Jason Ayto’s Brighton exit: ‘It was the wrong moment’
Ayto parted company with Brighton in June, just nine months after arriving as sporting director.
How Do Scientists Decorate Their Lab Space?
From cherished keepsakes to unexpected collectibles, researchers share the décor that brings personality to their laboratory and workspaces.
HIGHLIGHTS: Week 5 Thursday night football
(WFRV) – Hopefully you turned off Thursday Night Football to tune into the action going on around our area, because Thursday’s high school football slate was money: SCORES: Click the video above to watch the highlights.
Andrew Ng Dismisses AI Extinction Warnings as Science Fiction and PR Spin
Andrew Ng told Bloomberg TV that AI extinction warnings are "science fiction," splitting from Geoffrey Hinton and Anthropic over AI regulation.
Drew Doughty fulfilling longtime desire as new Kings captain
One day after being announced as Kings captain, Drew Doughty got to reflect on his new role at an introductory press conference.
My Nintendo Fire Emblem: Fortune's Weave Heroic Sweepstakes Announced (North America)
Enter for your chance to win
Scientists are about to test Einstein’s gravity with exotic matter
Scientists have found a new way to create a controlled beam of muonium, an exotic atom containing a heavier cousin of the electron. The advance could allow researchers to test for the first time whether gravity acts on second-generation particles exactly as Einstein’s theory predicts. Any unexpected difference would be a major surprise and could potentially point toward new physics, including a hypothetical fifth force.
Luminis Health Care cyberattack class-action lawsuit claims unencrypted patient data exposed at AAMC
Three patients have filed a class-action lawsuit against Luminis Health Care over its cybersecurity attack.
Photos: Inside Chicago Blackhawks training camp
Photos from Chicago Blackhawks training camp Sept. 17, 2026, at the Blackhawks Ice Center. ©2026 Chicago Tribune. Visit chicagotribune.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
Iowa’s August jobs report released
Iowa’s unemployment rate held steady in August at 3.2%, the same as it has been since May, new information from Iowa Workforce Development shows. The U.S. unemployment rate was 4.1%, the same as it was in July. Businesses in Iowa added 2,400 jobs in August, pushing the state’s nonfarm employment to 1,585,800. Sectors that saw…
Former White House economist: science has delivered a cancer detection revolution, now the FDA must keep pace
Nobody should defend the status quo. Routine screening exists for only a handful of cancers.
Thune calls NCAA sports current state 'at times, chaotic;' backs nationwide standards
College sports have become a national talking point as of late, from athlete eligibility to compensation. Federal efforts in Congress, supported by at least one South Dakota Senator, are looking to tackle the issue.
Six years after retiring from WCCO, Pat Kessler is embracing new gig at rival station
Kessler retired following the 2020 election cycle after 36 years with WCCO.
Fall Financial Reset: 5 Budgeting Tips to Promote Fiscal Health
Local credit union offers timely advice for healthcare workers – or any hardworking Minnesotan
T-Mobile adds monthly fee to a new iPhone feature for customers
T-Mobile is giving customers another way to use their iPhones, but it comes with an unexpected trade-off.
Sporting director blown away by unexpected Liverpool offer
Liverpool’s acquisition of Lucca Brughmans from the Belgian top-flight came as something of a surprise to Genk officials.Specifically, according to comments from director of football Dimitri de Cond...
Mayor Parker has ordered a task force to study data centers in Philly and report back by June
Parker said the issue is of “grave importance.” But activists who have called on the city to pass a moratorium on data centers called her move too little, too late.
Claims for unemployment benefits drop to 196,000
Layoffs remain rare and most Americans enjoy job security
Presidents Cup Stars Get Final Tuneup Before Medinah Showdown
Jackson Koivun and six other Presidents Cup players use the Biltmore Championship as their final competitive tuneup before next week's showdown at Medinah.
When DNA sounds a lasting alarm: cGAS-STING links aging to brain inflammation
Neurodegenerative diseases, cerebrovascular disorders and other age-related neurological conditions are major causes of long-term disability. A review published in SCIENCE CHINA Life Sciences by researchers from Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, examines how damaged nuclear DNA and mitochondrial DNA can become immune danger signals. The authors highlight cGAS-STING as a key molecular hub linking cellular damage, inflammaging and neuroimmune dysfunction, and discuss opportunities for more precise therapeutic intervention.
What actually killed the ClarityAct? Politics, says Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong
Scott Melker sits down with Coinbase (COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong, who explains how politics, not legislation, killed the Clarity Act. According to Armstrong, the bill had 95% of what both sides wanted, but bipartisanship was lacking; now the ball is in the FFC and CFTC court. "The Daily Wolf with Scott Melker" airs every day at 12:00 p.m. Tune in for your daily dose of all things crypto.
Zocdoc CEO: I’ve watched Walmart, IBM, and others try to ‘disrupt’ healthcare. Here’s why they failed
For too long, we have mistaken disruption for progress. Patients still struggle to find a doctor who takes their insurance.
‘It’s a raise against Trump:’ Despite inflation being ahead of target for five years, Trump says the Fed’s latest hike is political
"The problem they have is that we have the greatest economy in history ... so they're raising that only for political reasons, and that's a raise against Trump."
Testosterone scripts for women rise, along with denials and delays
Women increasingly turning to testosterone therapy to manage menopause symptoms are running into unexpected prescription delays and denials at pharmacies, according to interviews with more than half a dozen doctors, nurses and patients.
Behind the scenes of Science Unlocked
From nerve-wracking boat rides on a Kenyan lake to translating complex scientific concepts into stories everyone can understand. Plus, hear why a dedicated researcher named Patrick became an unexpected hero!
Denver board faces ongoing governance and civility issues
It’s mostly impossible to herd cats. So imagine how hard it is to herd a pride of snarling lions. That’s the task of Xóchitl Gaytán, president of the Denver Public Schools Board of Education. She was re-elected in 2025 along with three new board members: Monica Hunter, Dr. D.J. Torres and Anne Klein Molk. Unexpectedly, […]
Covington Mayor Ron Washington welcomes business leaders to city for manufacturers’ roundtable
Covington Mayor Ron Washington met with local manufacturers earlier this month for a manufacturers’ roundtable hosted by Atkins and Pearce, bringing together business leaders and community partners to…
Winnipeg Jets Turn Heads With Unexpected Connor Hellebuyck Decision
The Winnipeg Jets are set to start Training Camp without the attendance of goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, who had publicly requested a trade late last month. By all reports, Hellebuyck isn’t going to report for the start of Camp.And now, those reports have been confirmed with what the Jets have announced just minutes ago.The Winnipeg Jets […] The post Winnipeg Jets Turn Heads With Unexpected Connor Hellebuyck Decision appeared first on HEAVY.
Carbondale Area Science and Technology Club hosts STEM Night for elementary students
Members of the Carbondale Area High School Science and Technology Club hosted a “Blast Off to Summer” STEM Night for Carbondale Area Elementary students toward the end of the 2025-26 school year. Throughout the evening, students explored ex…
Offer to Ottawa opens EU enlargement can of worms
Unprecedented and unexpected 'membership' proposal to Canada generates confusion
Morocco’s 2026 election: A test of political trust and engagement
Youth unemployment, living costs and public services are key issues before the September 23 vote.
Unexpected Hero Helps Guardians Win Critical Series Over White Sox
The Cleveland Guardians have Petey Halpin to thank for their series victory over the Chicago White Sox.
Kings name Drew Doughty as next captain
The Los Angeles Kings announced on Wednesday that 18-year veteran defenseman Drew Doughty will be the next captain following the retirement of Anze Kopitar.
Mapping Ed Sheeran's remaining tour dates after Macklemore fallout
Ed Sheeran's Loop Tour has made over a dozen stops across the country since June, but going forward his lineup of opening acts will be different.
What Does the Science of Climate Change Really Look Like?
Editor’s Note: This is the second in a three-part series on how the Right should think about environmental and climate policy. Read Chris Barnard on Reclaiming Environmental Policy from the Left. More than a decade ago, the world’s governments negotiated and signed the Paris Climate Agreement, committing to hold global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius. In the following years, climate had immense cultural power. Greta Thunberg emerged. Fortune 500 companies established net-zero plans. The U.S. got the Inflation Reduction Act. Then the pendulum swung back. President Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office, speaking of green energy as a “scam” and carbon footprints as a “hoax” and on all matters of international policy emphasizing bilateral engagement and power over globalism and cooperation. The technology companies that had been at the forefront of net-zero pledges and green leadership discovered the importance of all-of-the-above power to their visions for artificial intelligence and began quietly postponing or removing their targets. On the left side of the political spectrum, rising concerns about inflation and cost pushed climate lower down in the stated priorities of voters and stump speeches of politicians. The moment is ripe for a reset on the politics of climate change and for conservatives especially to chart a course that acknowledges and addresses the real challenges in plausible ways. So what should we think about climate change as we enter a post-peak climate era? If it is neither an apocalypse nor a hoax, what will hold up as a durable view of climate change? And how does it project onto the concerns and priorities of the right-of-center’s emerging coalition? New to Commonplace_? Subscribe below to get the magazine in your inbox._ Subscribe A Solid Foundation As the politics and economics of climate careened over the past ten years, the physics carried on regardless. In 2015, the year the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted, the world emitted 41.2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. By 2025, emissions had risen only 2.4%, to 42.2 gigatonnes, because falling emissions from land use offset increasing emissions from fossil fuels. But slow growth in annual emissions is not rapid decline, let alone net-zero, so carbon dioxide kept accumulating in the atmosphere, going from 399 to 426 parts per million. Global temperature kept rising too, from about 1.1 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 average in 2015, to 1.4 degrees above it in 2025. None of this should surprise anyone. Even most prominent skeptics, like the authors of the 2025 report commissioned by the Trump administration’s Department of Energy, accept the basic physics. Carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere at industrial volumes accumulates and traps heat that would otherwise escape to space. That heat warms the upper ocean and increases temperatures at the surface. Increased ocean heat and melting of land ice cause sea levels to rise. Changes in the climate become noticeable to us as subtle shifts in temperature and precipitation, seasons arriving early or late, changes in the surrounding ecosystem, and weather extremes. The much more meaningful debate is not about whether these things are happening, but about what it all means for human societies. (While it is a proxy measure of overall risk, no one experiences global surface temperature.) This debate invokes at least three interesting questions: how much today’s warming is showing up in regional climate trends, how much more warming we should anticipate, and how extreme weather events can be understood in the context of climate change. Recent scientific advances give us new insights into each of these, but there is still much to learn. This is the context in which the next generation of conservative leaders will be the first to deal with significant climate change as a fact, not a forecast. It will be with them for their entire careers. Our evolving scientific picture of climate change will come from weather and climate records stretching further into the past, new kinds of observations in the present, better modeling tools for the future, and simply more time to observe the emergence of climate signals and their tangible effects on ecosystems and communities in the United States and around the world. The policy landscape will be shaped by not only the impacts of changes in the climate, but also by the ways in which societies respond and by the emergence of new technologies for both altering the trajectory of emissions and adapting to new climate realities. Global climate records now show the fingerprints of warming in different phenomena around much of the world. The IPCC, in its most recent assessment report, documents warming trends over all land regions, even as natural variability adds substantial variance to local trends. And the highest temperature extremes have become more intense and frequent, almost everywhere, since the 1950s. Scientists are highly confident that these changes are attributable to human influence. But confidence in detecting trends and attributing them to human influence degrades across heavy precipitation events; drought trends are heterogeneous and not attributable to human activity with great confidence. For hurricanes, tornadoes, and other severe storms there is even less confidence in trends or their relationship to climate change. In general, a fair summary of the evidence is that for well-observed phenomena, like surface temperature or heavy rainfall, with a clear relationship to warming, our multidecadal observations are consistent with human influence overcoming natural variability over long time periods and extremes increasing. For regions that are sampled more sparsely, or phenomena with a higher noise-to-signal ratio, we will need to observe them longer to understand the magnitude of the climate signal or improve dynamical understanding using models and observations together. But for Climate For those who can’t wait, we also have new techniques that attempt to understand the role climate change has in influencing particular extreme events. When the climate is changing and disaster strikes, it is natural to ask whether that disaster was somehow “caused” by climate change. For scientists and policymakers acting in good faith, answering that question helps develop a more accurate picture of the problem, how it may be getting worse, and what preparations we should be making to respond to it. It may, at some point, give some weight to how liability is assigned by courts or adaptation funding is distributed by society. But how we ask this question is extremely important. It is easy to get the analysis wrong by discounting the role that meteorology plays. As meteorologist Theodore Shepherd explained in a clear 2016 review of climate attribution methods, “if a weather or climate event is truly extreme in the present climate, then perforce it requires unusual meteorological conditions, which means that climate change is at most a contributing factor.” Share Scientists have two ways to probe climate as a contributing factor, both of which have entered media coverage of extreme weather events. One asks a probabilistic question: How much more likely is a particular event (e.g., a temperature record over a particular area) amid global warming? The answer involves using historical records and computer simulations to estimate the likelihood of such an event in both a changed and a preindustrial climate. The findings are less about the specific event, and more about events of that nature. The other question is: How has the changed climate affected the specific event in question? Here, scientists try to understand what a similar event would have looked like in the preindustrial climate. This is sometimes called the storyline approach, where the story is the specific meteorological details of the event. These methods offer ways to test the intuition of scientists about real weather extremes. In late June and early July of 2021, a persistent high-pressure ridge, or heat dome, set up over the Pacific Northwest and an extraordinary heat wave affected the area from Oregon to British Columbia. For six days, it shattered temperature records across the region and hundreds died from heat-related causes, in an area where such high, and persistently high, temperatures were well outside of experience and many live without air conditioning. Scientists have studied its connection to climate change using multiple approaches. This specific event was created by a rare combination of meteorological factors, a strong high-pressure ridge created the conditions for extreme heat, which occurred on top of higher average temperatures in the region from global warming. Probabilistic analyses showed that climate change increased the likelihood of such an event by at least 8-fold to more than 100-fold. One standout example found that such an event had effectively zero probability of occurring in the preindustrial climate. The enormous range in these assessments reflects how hard it is to estimate probabilities of events at the tail of the historical record. Estimates of the effect on the temperature of the event are more clustered. A recent review paper documents how multiple methodologies have found a positive influence, roughly 1-2 degrees Celsius of an anomaly that exceeded 15 degrees, of climate change on the temperature magnitude of the event. Multiple studies have investigated and found some positive influence of climate change in other extreme events. Attribution studies found climate likely increased the heavy rainfall that accompanied Hurricane Helene in North Carolina and surrounding regions in 2024. The extensive fires that struck Los Angeles in 2025 illustrate how the causal chain can become messy, though. Studies do detect a positive influence of climate on the event’s likelihood, but while climate change likely contributed to underlying aridity, it would not have played a role in the heavy winds or land practices that preceded disaster. These event attribution studies will become more common for extreme, or damaging, weather events. They can be produced quickly, and often are reported before peer review. As the Pacific Northwest heatwave example shows, when multiple methods converge on a positive attribution, the finding should probably carry some weight even if you have to be careful about accepting the results from a single study. I expect that as climate change proceeds and the climate thus departs further from a preindustrial counterfactual, the influence will become more detectable across a variety of extreme events and more easily identified. This will be used to cast blame, but can also be used to inform how communities and society adapt to ongoing change. We May Still Be Surprised One positive development, insofar as less climate change is better, has been that our central estimates for future climate change should probably be revised downward. Mostly, that is because the high-end warmings that scientists regularly analyzed about ten to 20 years ago, driven by high emissions throughout the twenty-first century, now appear to be somewhere between unlikely and impossible. At one time, the upper end of mainstream climate projections extended well into 4 to 6 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of this century, which, models suggest, would have wrought enormous real-world damage. Current energy and policy trends now point toward 2.5 or 3 degrees. Damages and risks are commonly modeled as increasing steeply with more warming, so this is already a better-than-previously-expected outcome for the climate (which is independent of the physical response to emissions). But we should maintain a wide range for plausible outcomes and prepare for the possibility of being surprised. Emissions trajectories are subject to deep uncertainty, the physical climate response is still developing, and whatever change occurs in the climate will then be mediated through unpredictable economic, social, and political institutions. Over the past decade, the pace of warming surprised some keen observers and appeared to accelerate, though not yet outside the range of expectation provided by climate models. The reasons for that apparent acceleration are being actively studied (as was the apparent pause in warming from 1998 to 2012), but no single driver has emerged. Some blame it on the El Niño, variability which would have no bearing on climate. Some think it is a result of factories in East Asia and global shipping fleets cutting aerosol emissions, which in the strongest version of the argument would indicate higher climate sensitivity to carbon-dioxide emissions. Others are more measured, not yet ready to draw solid conclusions as to whether climate projections require revision. We will have to see. Long-Term Thinking Climate change asks us to think over long time scales. But the pace of human-driven warming is compressing a large global change into a century. Changing weather patterns and extreme events are already causing adjustment costs and damages and will do more. Adaptation will help, but it is not free. For some communities, these costs will erode livelihoods and well-being, and may force migration. Are we prepared for large-scale managed retreats in the United States? Thankfully, American wealth, geographical diversity, and moderate climates may leave us better prepared than many around the world. But wealthy countries can still suffer serious disruption from narrowly concentrated costs, even if they appear entirely manageable in aggregate. Readers of Commonplace are familiar with the challenges of rapidly adapting to economic forces. The displacement that came from the China Shock is barely perceptible in aggregate GDP and employment data, but it affected millions of people and those people were far less mobile than economic models tended to assume. Deindustrialization rippled through the nation with enormous effects for not only our economic vitality, but also our national security. The forces surrounding climate change may not be so different; the world gets richer and must accept some diffuse costs. Those may be modest overall, but cause all manner of unpredictable effects with which policymakers must cope. In the case of the China Shock, our faith in a growing pie served us poorly. We’ll need to do better on climate. Leave a comment
‘Facts, science, evidence’: Commissioners OK data center health impact study
Lackawanna County commissioners awarded a contract Wednesday for a data center health impact study and could have the final report in hand by Christmas.
Anthropic merges its Claude chat and agentic Cowork products into a single AI assistant as part of a push to build an AI superapp
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Metallica to rock Camp Randall Stadium in June 2027
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Sagtec Reports 46 Percent Gross Profit Growth and Expands International Business Momentum
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Ayble Health banks $16M series A to expand AI-driven precision digestive, autoimmune healthcare
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Nintendo opens up Fire Emblem with the gigantic Fortune’s Weave
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Chelsea and Arsenal are watching Brazilian teenager
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Fire Emblem: Fortune's Weave Review: Let The Games Begin
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Emmy Awards ratings down nearly 10% from last year
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Fire Emblem: Fortune's Weave Almost Had Eight Protagonists
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TST Best Bets: September 15, 2026
The Los Angeles Angels snapped a three game losing streak last night with a 6-4 victory over the Seattle Mariners at Angels Stadium.
Whoever Put Together The Kingdom Hearts Fortnite Trailer Knows Ball
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Shrinkflation is coming for pro sports: The cost of watching the NFL jumped 28.6%—and attending a game 72%—since 2015
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Game Pass adds Dune: Awakening, Minecraft Dungeons II, Gears of War: E-Day, and more in late September to early October
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Coming to XBOX Game Pass: Gears of War: E-Day, Minecraft Dungeons II, Dune: Awakening, and More
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Is Meta Stock Still The Self-Funding Ad Business You Bought?
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Strong Spirit, Steady Hope: Maria’s Fight Forward
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Cosmos Health Adds 5.2 Million Units in New Five-Year Agreements with Target Pharma; Orderbook Surges Past 32.7 Million Units, Up 31% Since June
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Wales boss Craig Bellamy explains why he rejected Burnley after summer saga
Bellamy looked set to join Burnley in June but ended up staying with Wales
FOX Sports, Wilmer Valderrama's WV Alternative and NASCAR Studios announce 'Suárez,' set for Sept. 17 on FS1
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Detroit Tigers’ Winning Streak Has Created an Unexpected September Question
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In brief: 'Yaga' gets AMC+ premiere date and more
We now know when the upcoming series Yaga will debut on AMC+. The new mystery-thriller series will premiere its first two episodes on Oct. 23. The streamer also released a sneak peek clip of the show that reimagines the myth of Baba Yaga. Noah Reid, Hudson Williams, Clark Backo and Carrie-Anne Moss star in the series ...Did you miss the film Tuner when it was in theaters earlier this year? Not to worry. The movie will mark its streaming premiere to Paramount+ on Sept. 21. Tuner follows a gifted young piano tuner who uses his heightened sense of hearing to open safes in the world of high-stakes theft. Leo Woodall, Dustin Hoffman and Havana Rose Liu star in the crime thriller ... TNCMS.AdManager.render({region: 'fixed-big-ad-top-asset', slot: 1, fold: "above"}); Ben Platt and Russell Tovey are disrupting the industry. Well, the cast of Industry, that is. HBO has announced that Platt and Tovey have joined the cast of the upcoming fifth and final season of the drama series. The season is currently in production ...Copyright © 2026, ABC Audio. All rights reserved. Thank you for reading kmaland.comAt KMA, we attempt to be accurate in our reporting. If you see a typo or mistake in a story, please contact us by emailing kmaradio@kmaland.com.
Scientists discover a major brain shift between ages 50 and 75
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UV light reveals possible camouflage on a 125-million-year-old crocodile
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The shape behind the Einstein problem just revealed strange new physics
A mathematical shape famous for covering a surface without ever repeating has revealed an unexpected ability to twist light into unusual chiral patterns. The discovery could lead to new ways of controlling light, polarization, and advanced optical devices.