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Apple M3 Ultra-Based Mac Studio Devices Now Going For As Much As $25,000 As Shortages Trigger A Buying Frenzy
The demand for Apple Macs is off the proverbial rocker right now, with certain versions of the Mac Studio commanding an insane premium.
Scientists Identify The Most Dangerous Time in Life to Gain Weight
Certain years are crucial.
Va. lawmakers OK governor's tweaks to major energy bills, reject health and labor bill amendments
The amendments that lawmakers accepted to their bills will be incorporated before the measures become law. The ones that were rejected and sent back to Spanberger have an uncertain fate. She can choose to sign them as is, or veto them.
Sainsbury's echoes Tesco warning as Iran war weighs on outlook
British supermarket group Sainsbury’s warned on Thursday that uncertainty around how the Iran war will affect consumers is clouding its outlook and could drag profits lower this year, echoing concerns voiced by market leader Tesco.
Howie Roseman Very Excited for One Eagles Change This Offseason
The harsh reality of the 2025-26 season for the Philadelphia Eagles is that it didn't go as well as it should have. The Eagles, certainly still one of the better teams in the NFL, didn't do enough on offense to suggest we should feel too confident about them moving forward.
High school sports top performers from Tuesday aren't taking it easy
They certainly aren't on a break. Tuesday's Fantastic 5(+1) high school sports performers put up big numbers and delivered in the clutch.
2026 NFL mock draft: Giants bypass wide receiver in Round 1, but two still taken in top 10
Mystery is what defines the 2026 NFL Draft with little certainty at the top.
New clues for using common fungus to promote crop growth and health
Trichoderma species — a common fungus found in soils — have varying abilities to promote tomato plant growth and differentially affect the abundance of certain soil bacteria, according to a study led by researchers at Penn State.
Leaker: Apple to Downgrade iPhone 18 in Two Ways
Following the emergence of a rumor that Apple is planning to downgrade the iPhone 18 to cut costs, further detail has emerged suggesting that display and chip specifications will see downgrades. Earlier this week, the leaker known as "Fixed Focus Digital" said that the iPhone 18 features "certain manufacturing downgrades" that bring it more into line with the low-cost iPhone 18e model. The decision is said to be "a cost-cutting measure".
Ibogaine is drawing new interest from the Trump administration. Here’s what to know about the psychedelic
Psychedelic drugs, once pushed to the fringes of medicine, are gaining serious attention within the Trump administration as potential treatment options for people with certain mental health conditions. And they could soon be closer to receiving approval from the US Food and Drug Administration.
Scouting Future Saints: Oklahoma Sooners edge rusher R Mason Thomas
Oklahoma Sooners pass rusher R Mason Thomas could be a great fit in certain NFL schemes. Pressuring quarterbacks must be a priority for the Saints.
As Trump proposes further cuts to science spending, this Pittsburgh researcher is moving to China
Amid uncertain federal funding for science research, an infectious disease researcher is trading the hills of Pittsburgh for the mostly flat terrain on the outskirts of Shanghai.
Prince George’s Co. will charge new fees — but only on certain types of businesses
The Prince George’s County Council in Maryland just passed a bill that levies new fees on only certain businesses that operate there.
US oil prices rise as US-Iran peace talks remain uncertain
U.S. crude futures rose in early trade on Wednesday, despite Washington's announcement that it would indefinitely extend a ceasefire with Iran, as uncertainty over peace talks persisted and the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed.
SBA administrator speaks to ABC13 on economic uncertainty ahead of midterm elections: 'It's a blip'
With the war in Iran and growing costs creating uncertainty, the economy is atop voters minds heading into the 2026 midterms. While data reveals Texas is faring better economically than much of the country, growth might be slowing.
STAFF OPINION: Entertainment vibe check: Every show and movie has its moment and season
There is a specific season for certain movies or shows to be watched.
Axios Live: North Carolina faces health care funding, staffing gaps
Health leaders at an April 16 Axios event warned that funding uncertainty and workforce shortages are colliding in the state.
Trump Is Creating a Whole New Class of War Profiteers
New evidence shows that there are certain pecuniary interests at play in our recent excursion into the Middle East.
From Donald Trump to Jacob Frey — has politics lost its profanity filter?
If there was ever a set of rules for politicians interfacing with the public, steadfast avoidance of profanity might have been at the very top of such a list. Robert’s Rules of Order, which are often invoked in political spaces, certainly prohibit personal insults, including profanity. But these are new times. Just last week, President Donald Trump […]
Cantaloupes Recalled in Four States Due to Salmonella Risk
By HealthDay Staff HealthDay ReporterTUESDAY, April 21, 2026 (HealthDay News) — Health officials in some states are warning shoppers to avoid certain cantaloupes amid concerns they may carry Salmonella. The recall, announced by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), involves fruit produced by
Letter to the Editor: We can’t let politics obscure the promise or the peril of psychedelic therapy
Over the weekend, President Donald Trump signed an executive order titled, “ACCELERATING MEDICAL TREATMENTS FOR SERIOUS MENTAL ILLNESS,” intended to hasten access to psychedelic treatments. The signing was certainly a spectacle, as it often is, but so was the heterogenous group in attendance: President Trump was joined in the oval office by MMA-commentator, podcaster, and...
Inside Louisville’s Relentless Push to Keep Pace Amid College Sports’ Spending Spree
Facing an uncertain future, the Cardinals are pouring millions into football and basketball while pushing for sweeping changes to a broken economic model.
Beyond the Promises: Africa, Power, and the Politics of Climate Action
Renewed uncertainty around US engagement, including signals of potential funding reductions, institutional disengagement, and a second withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, has reintroduced questions about the durability of global climate commitments.
Aspirin can reduce the risk of cancer – and we're starting to understand why
The 4,000-year-old drug, most commonly used to treat pain, prevents certain tumours from forming and spreading across the body – findings that are already changing health policies.
US crude futures fall as investors reassess US-Iran risks ahead of ceasefire deadline
U.S. crude futures fell nearly 2% in early Asian trade on Tuesday as investors reassessed supply risk, with uncertainty over U.S.–Iran peace talks persisting ahead of a key ceasefire deadline.
PlayStation To Require Age Verification For Certain Online Features
PlayStation has revealed that players will need to verify their age later this year to continue using communication features.
Tax relief on the horizon: How federal rescheduling could reshape cannabis business taxes
Rachel Carr Shreves and Crystal Howard of Spencer Fane discuss the proposed federal rescheduling of cannabis to Schedule III and considerations stemming from potential relief from the limitations on certain deductions under Section 280E of the Internal Revenue Code.
Leaker: Apple Downgrading iPhone 18 to Cut Costs
Apple is downgrading the planned specifications of the standard iPhone 18 to cut costs, a leaker claims. In a new post on Weibo, the user known as "Fixed Focus Digital" said that the iPhone 18 features "certain manufacturing downgrades" that bring it more into line with the low-cost iPhone 18e model. The decision is said to be "a cost-cutting measure".
Reform’s Richard Tice posts picture with telltale signs of AI manipulation, say experts
Tice’s image on X was almost certainly generated or altered using AI, according to Peryton Intelligence
Orbán’s Hungary Defeat Shows Disinformation is Not a Political Magic Trick
Counter-disinformation work should be supported continually, not to prevent certain election outcomes but to give voters the chance to make an informed choice.
A political vibe shift: The Senate is suddenly in play
Republicans entered 2026 all but certain they'd hold the chamber. Six months out, that certainty is fading.
Discover, explore and analyse business statistics
Have you ever wished you could see how a certain economic activity is performing without drowning in datasets or spreadsheets? Meet the Business sector profiles: your one-stop gateway for fast insights, easy to grasp comparisons and deep dives into the EU’s business economy. This tool puts everything in one place offering...
Gasperini lays out 4 conditions to stay at Roma
Gian Piero Gasperini’s future at Roma is uncertain. The Giallorossi coach isn’t sure he’ll stay in the capital, and the possibility of a departure is currently looming in his mind unless the Fri...
Let’s go Flyers: Braves 4, Phillies 2
At least the hockey team had a good weekend, because the baseball team certainly did not
STEM SHOWCASE AT YSU: Science concepts spawn real-world creations
YOUNGSTOWN — During her childhood, Meghan Crump enjoyed certain fast movements, though years later, her interest shifted to things that move quickly but are far smaller than her. “I was a very creative person in high school. I was a student who loved school,” Crump, a Youngstown State University senior and 2022 Austintown Fitch High […]
Fed’s Beige Book reveals Iran conflict’s impact on business confidence
Former World Bank President David Malpass discusses economic uncertainty amid the Iran conflict, the state of the Federal Reserve and more on ‘Varney & Co.’
Mike Myers went full 'Shrek' to honor Eddie Murphy at AFI Life Achievement Award Ceremony
AFI honored Eddie Murphy with its Life Achievement Award in a ceremony that included tears, laughter, and a cameo from a certain green ogre voiced by Mike Myers.
A permit should mean something. CERTAIN Act guards projects from political meddling.
The CERTAIN Act is a bipartisan bill that aims to protect lawfully issued permits from political interference, increase accountability during review, and ensure projects can move forward on time, w…
How was Elijah Hollands allowed to keep playing during a ‘mental health episode’?
Leadership, on and off the field, was lacking at the MCG and any investigation must ascertain whether Carlton fulfilled its duty of care
Trump is savaging allies who criticize the Iran war. But he’s treating Joe Rogan very differently
The way Joe Rogan tells it, about all President Donald Trump needed before he fast-tracked research into therapeutic uses for certain psychedelic treatments like Ibogaine was a text from a podcaster.
Trump signs order to speed review of psychedelics, including the controversial drug ibogaine
President Donald Trump has directed his administration to speed up reviews of certain psychedelic drugs, including ibogaine | WBEN
Trump signs order to speed review of psychedelics, including the controversial drug ibogaine
President Donald Trump has directed his administration to speed up reviews of certain psychedelic drugs, including ibogaine.
Mic catches Steve Kerr telling Stephen Curry and Draymond Green 'I don't know what's going to happen next' as Warriors head into uncertain future
Super Niño 2026: Between science and sensationalism
Beyond the inherent uncertainty in forecasts, current oceanic and atmospheric conditions are already showing meaningful signals.
Steelers WR Michael Pittman not worried about Aaron Rodgers uncertainty
The new Steelers wide receiver will roll with whomever is at quarterback.
Fed Beige Book Points to Uncertainty and Increased Business Costs - Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council
by Raymond J. Keating – The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book take on the economy pointed to sluggishness and uncertainty, with the Iran war naturally coming into the equation. Specifically, it was reported, “Overall economic activity increased at a slight to modest pace in eight of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, while two Districts […]
How Swalwell’s exit — and Trump’s entrance — reset the California governor’s race
In the muddled California gubernatorial race, Democrats are simultaneously growing more confident and more uncertain.
Barcelona’s €30m Question For Man United Forward
Rashford’s Barcelona Future in Doubt as Transfer Reality BitesCredit to Marca for the original reporting, which paints an increasingly uncertain picture around Marcus Rashford and his long term futu...
Saudi Arabia and sports: What it owns, how much it has invested, and what now?
Breaking down Saudi Arabia's sports portfolio and what we're hearing about its future amid the uncertainty surrounding LIV Golf.
Insurance Coverage Considerations for Sports and Entertainment Events Amid Uncertain Middle East Volatility
Recent geopolitical developments, including escalating US military activity involving Iran, are disrupting the global sports and entertainment landscape. Event cancellations, postponements, and relocations across the Middle East underscore the operational and financial exposure faced by organizers, rights holders, and related stakeholders.
House Votes to Preserve Deportation Protections for Haitians, Rebuking Trump
The action was largely symbolic since the president would be all but certain to veto the bill, but the bipartisan vote reflected resistance within his own ranks on his signature issue.
NFIB small business optimism index falls below 52-year average in March
Small business optimism declined in March as profit trends worsened and uncertainty climbed, according to a survey released Thursday by the National Federation of Independent Business. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.0 points in March to 95.8, dropping below its 52-year average of 98.0 for the first time since April 2025. The NFIB […]
Should Monopoly Verdict and Breakup Risk Require Action From Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) Investors?
In recent days, a jury found that Live Nation Entertainment and its Ticketmaster unit illegally monopolized concert ticketing, opening the door for more than 30 US states to seek remedies that could include curbing the company’s power or even forcing a breakup. This verdict introduces significant legal uncertainty around Live Nation’s vertically integrated concerts and ticketing model, potentially reshaping how major live events are promoted, ticketed, and operated across the...
UNC Hussman offers new sports play-by-play class | UNC Hussman School of Journalism and Media
This story, written by UNC Hussman alumna Caroline Daly ’24, was originally published on unc.edu. The UNC Hussman School of Journalism and Media has a new, hands-on class available for students interested in sports careers. Students in “MEJO 390: Sports Commentary and Play-By-Play” can call live radio broadcasts for Carolina sporting events, streamed live on the Go Heels website. This spring, 11 students are calling mostly softball games to gain experience and learn the preparation needed for a successful broadcast. The class is capped at a small number to provide consistent, individual feedback. Matt Krause, the radio voice of Carolina women’s basketball, teaches the class to help students sharpen their skills, using his experience with the Tar Heels and calling games for ACC Network and ACC Network Extra. “There is no substitute for live reps, and that is the only way you get better. The classroom component teaches you how to get better, but going about that requires sitting in that chair, making mistakes and being able to know your broadcast is going somewhere,” Krause said. “These students are doing real live games, and they will have tape where if they want to pursue this. They will have ready-made demos to send for jobs. Being able to utilize all the resources of UNC, GoHeels Productions and the Carolina Athletics brand and create these opportunities for students is really impactful.” In the class, students learn fundamentals like how to announce starting lineups for different sports and how to conduct research before games. Krause has led the class in mock preparation exercises, looking at game charts with information about the different teams and players that they can refer to at pivotal moments during the game. Krause and the students then critique each other, listening to clips from the past week to find ways to improve. It’s a rare class without a slew of quizzes or assignments. Their main tasks are calling games and making a portfolio or demo reel of their best calls at the end of the semester, all with the goal of being ready to step into similar roles after graduation. Laible live streams her coverage on the GoHeels website. Calling a live game while broadcasting her coverage allows her to get hands on experience. (Jon Gardiner/UNC-Chapel Hill) Junior Anna Laible ’27 wished for a class just like this. Her first year at Carolina, she interned with the Coastal Plain League, where she was introduced to play-by-play for baseball. “I enjoy the challenge and uncertainty of each game being different because each sport looks a little different,” said Laible. “Each game is different — not just with teams but what could happen with certain records being broken or random trends. That’s what I enjoy most.” She wanted more opportunities for reps during college to prepare for a career after Carolina, so she pitched an idea for the class to Livis Freeman ’99, distinguished associate professor of sports communication. Laible and Freeman reached out to GoHeels Productions for a partnership and then connected with Krause. “This is how at UNC Hussman we separate ourselves: Our students go into the field ready,” said Freeman. “The biggest compliment we get it is when our students start their careers, they don’t need any hand-holding.” Laible calls a Carolina softball game at Kessing Stadium – after pitching the idea to Hussman faculty. Her interest in sports commentary allowed her to apply her interest as she attends Carolina. (Jon Gardiner/UNC-Chapel Hill) Laible is now a student in the class, which has helped her strengthen her skills and deepen her passion for the field. The goal is to expand to other sports like soccer, lacrosse and field hockey. “The hands-on experience I’ve gotten here is invaluable. I’ve loved the classes and professors because they’ve taught me a lot, but it’s also the things outside of class, too, that have helped me grow,” said Laible. “Since being at UNC, I’ve grown a lot in the versatility, from doing writing to production and commentating. UNC Hussman and Carolina have given me the ability to be strong and well rounded.”
Visa Changes, Uncertainties Put UGA International Scholars, Science at Risk
Views: 1 Shifting Federal Landscapes At the University of Georgia, 3,120 international students are building futures that depend on timelines ...
South Africa's Malema faces political crisis after jail sentence in firearm case
Julius Malema, a polarizing figure in South African politics, faces an uncertain political future after being sentenced to five years prison on Thursday following his conviction for firing an assault rifle in public during a 2018 rally.
The Case for Pull Funding at the National Institutes of Health
The White House’s fiscal year 2027 budget proposal, released earlier this month, would cut the National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding by ~$5 billion. This is a meaningful cut, though far smaller than the roughly $18 billion reduction proposed for 2026, which Congress ultimately rejected in favor of a modest increase. Whether Congress holds the line again remains uncertain.
YouTube Premium is now 50% off for certain Google One subscribers
We'll take what we can get
Goldman Sachs rates business hit by Iran war volatility, sources say
Goldman Sachs' rates business suffered losses on some positions towards the end of the last quarter as fixed-income market volatility due to the Iran war forced it to hold on to certain positions as a market maker, two people familiar with the matter said.
Analysis of Alzheimer’s Drugs Stirs Debate About Their Effectiveness
The review said a certain class of drugs had little clinical benefit, but many Alzheimer’s experts criticized the analysis, saying it unfairly lumped failed drugs with two recently approved treatments.
Common IBS medications linked to higher risk of death in major study
A massive, nearly 20-year study tracking over 650,000 Americans with irritable bowel syndrome is raising new questions about the long-term safety of common treatments. Researchers found that some widely used medications—including antidepressants and certain antidiarrheal drugs—were linked to a small but noticeable increase in the risk of death over time.
Small business optimism drops, more owners cautious on spending: NFIB
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index fell 3 points in March to 95.8, falling below the 52-year average of 98.0. NFIB Research Center executive director Holly Wade breaks down the data and what factors are impacting American small business owners, including price pressures, as uncertainty rises.
The Guardian view on social science research: embracing uncertainty
Editorial: Science rarely produces identical outcomes. Mistaking this for failure turns caution into an excuse for inaction
Cannabis stores on State Street face a hazy future
Stores selling hemp-derived THC products have proliferated, especially on State Street. A change in federal legislation means their future is uncertain.
Roundup: Business optimism / Cleveland’s housing answer / America at 250
Slipping further: U.S. small business optimism fell for a third straight month in March, hitting its lowest level in nearly a year as the Iran conflict drove up energy costs and uncertainty. Owners reported weaker expectations for profits, sales and economic conditions, while plans for capital spending dropped sharply. Rising input costs are also prompting […]
Scientists just recreated a rare cosmic reaction never seen before
A breakthrough experiment has shed new light on one of astrophysics’ biggest mysteries: the origin of rare proton-rich elements. For the first time, scientists directly measured a key reaction that creates selenium-74 using a rare isotope beam. The results sharpen models of how these elements form in supernova explosions, cutting uncertainty in half. But the findings also reveal gaps in current theories, hinting that the story isn’t complete yet.
Why Phillies should think long term with Justin Crawford, Andrew Painter
The Phillies have two young building blocks in Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter. With labor uncertainty ahead, early extensions would make sense.
Gossip: Howe still involved in transfer plans despite uncertain future
Newcastle's hierarchy are continuing to include boss Eddie Howe in discussions on transfer plans for the summer despite uncertainty over his future at St James' Park for the first time. The I) Arsenal and Chelsea are leading the chase to sign Newcastle's Lewis Hall, 21, but the Magpies will not let the left-back leave easily. (Caught Offside)
Texas AG launches probe into Lululemon's potential use of certain chemicals
The investigation, announced on the attorney general's website Monday, concerns whether Lululemon’s athletic apparel contains PFAS.
LIF-HEALTH-PEDIATRICIAN-QA-DMT
Food allergies have risen by 50% since the 1990s. With this in mind, the American Academy of Pediatrics advocates for the health of all children who must avoid certain foods
Cyberattacks, Tariffs, Geopolitics Loom Over Business Executives
Geopolitical uncertainty, rapid policy shifts, and mounting security risks are ratcheting up the threats facing US companies.
Northern Poll: Ohioans prioritize political civility despite future uncertainty
Ohioans find political incivility unacceptable but differ on optimism for the future.
Masters 2026: Only one question remains for Rory McIlroy — how high will he climb among golf's all-time greats?
McIlroy may never have the numbers to catch Jack Nicklaus or Tiger Woods, but he certainly has a pathway to No. 3 all-time.
Porsche Patents Racing Stripes That Appear When You Switch Into Sport Mode
Using an electrical current to change the outward appearance of certain body panels, this Porsche tech could make racing stripes appear on command.
Uncertainty remains one month until May revision of state budget
Gov. Newsom and state lawmakers have less than three months to agree on a balanced budget before the next fiscal year starts on July 1.
From uncertainty to opportunity: LCTC programs prove transformative for Louisiana students and business partners
Esmeralda Esparza didn’t expect her brother’s encouragement to change her life.
From uncertainty to opportunity: LCTC programs prove transformative for Louisiana students and business partners
Esmeralda Esparza didn’t expect her brother’s encouragement to change her life.
Staal Nets Number 20 – Hurricanes 4, Mammoth 1
Jordan Staal notched his 20th goal of the season and the Carolina Hurricanes defeated the Utah Mammoth, 4-1 on Saturday evening in Salt Lake City. It was Staal’s first 20 goal season in nine years. The Canes have now won three games in a row and they look like they are certainly peaking at the […]
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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