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Google Photos just ditched its clunky bottom bar for something way cleaner
Rolling out now
Reflecting on the World Cup's complex colonial politics
The Haitian team's heroic efforts were followed by news that the U.S. Supreme Court has greenlighted the end of Temporary Protected Status.
Biggest Music Business Stories of 2026 So Far: Analysis
The biggest music business stories of 2026 so far are analyzed by Billboard staff, from major mergers and acquisitions to AI's effect on the industry.
OpenAI releases new voice models for more natural live conversations
OpenAI says its new voice mode can speak and listen at the same time, a key ability for live translation.
Galaxy Z Fold 8 and Fold 8 Ultra renders spoil Samsung's big reveal
Leaked Galaxy Z Fold 8 and Fold 8 Ultra renders reveal Samsung's next foldables ahead of launch, including new colors and expected specs.
Computer Science Alum Pair Gains Key Experience Overseeing Data Science Projects as BU Spark! Postbaccalaureate Fellows
Learn how a pair of MET CS alums—one MS in Software Development alum and one who earned a MS in Computer Science with a concentration in Data Analytics—got vital experience overseeing data science projects as postbaccalaureate fellows in the BU Spark! program.
Health, Exercise, and Sport Sciences Graduates Have 100% Placement Rate
When Meredith’s Class of 2026 turned their tassels at commencement in May, the Health, Exercise, and Sport Sciences (HESS) program also celebrated a 100% placement rate for its graduates.
PlayStation users cancelling PS Plus are offered 50% discounts as petition to save physical discs passes 200,000 signatures
Sony confirmed that new PlayStation games will no longer receive disc production starting January 2028. The decision has triggered a petition and reports of PS Plus discounts during cancellation attempts.
NJBIZ Honors Two Outstanding Programs and Three Healthcare Heroes from RWJBarnabas Health
Two extremely impactful programs and three dedicated health care team members from RWJBarnabas Health were recognized by NJBIZ as 2026 Healthcare Heroes, and were honored at a formal event on June 23 at The Marigold in Somerset.
Lionel Messi's Late-Game Heroics Are Hard To Believe; Not For Zlatan and Henry
The inevitable Lionel Messi delivered again, leading Argentina to an improbable comeback, keeping its World Cup title defense alive.
Foldable iPhone Ultra vs. iPad: How their screens reportedly compare
When opened, the foldable iPhone may scratch users' iPad itch too.
Graduate students benefit from philanthropy
Meet three scholars in applied physical sciences, political science and music who received fellowships to further their research and teaching.
Apple's iPhone 18 Pro Max might come with a massive battery
The iPhone 18 Pro, not so much.
Hate taking pills? Meet the newest 'healthy aging' gummy supplement
The trending longevity supplement Fatty15 now comes in gummies, offering an easier, more consistent way to support cellular health.
Sam Reid on how 'The Vampire Lestat' episode 5 changes everything for the Brat Prince
Claudia is back, and breaking our hearts all over again.
'House of the Dragon' draws a key musical parallel between Rhaenyra and Daenerys
Ding dong, we've heard this before.
'House of the Dragon' pulls a Daeron Targaryen switcheroo that isn't in 'Fire and Blood'
Will the real Daeron please stand up?
'House of the Dragon': Where is Tumbleton, and why is it so important?
Get acquainted with "House of the Dragon"s most important new town.
Rhaenyra's nasty rat banquet in 'House of the Dragon' isn't even in 'Fire and Blood'
When you visit House Targaryen, maybe don't stay for dinner.
Can AI help businesses weather any storm?
Investing in AI can be the lifeline that helps firms survive calamities, but not every enterprise can find salvation
This $35 AI-powered Mac app transcribes your voice three times faster than typing
Work smarter on your Mac with this AI voice assistant.
Trump uses America’s 250 speech to honor military heroes and also push political agendas
President Trump concluded the semiquincentennial celebration by reflecting on the nation's history, honoring veterans and pushing his political agenda during his address at the Salute to America event. NBC News’ Ryan Nobles reports on key points from the president's speech.
Cancel ChatGPT and get lifetime access to Claude, Gemini, and more for $55.30 with this code
No monthly subscription fees, and it'll even let you send one prompt to multiple AI models.
Canada vs. Morocco 2026 livestream: How to watch World Cup for free
Live stream all the action from the 2026 FIFA World Cup without spending anything.
Argentina vs. Scotland 2026 livestream: How to watch Nations Championship for free
Live stream all the action from the first edition of this competition without spending anything.
The 'Black Mirror' Experience made me sick to my stomach
Naturally, stepping into the world of "Black Mirror" is upsetting.
World Cup 2026: Cape Verde's Vozinha frustrates Lionel Messi in heroic loss to Argentina
Vozinha entered the World Cup with 50,000 Instagram followers. He is up to 18.4 million after Cape Verde's loss.
From The Sports Desk: Portugal advances, Croatia sent packing after dramatic finish
Cristiano Ronaldo played hero yesterday, leading Portugal to a 2-1 win over Croatia, which had a late equalizer taken away on replay review. Now, Portugal takes on Spain next.
Cherokee Nation health system generated $2B economic impact in Oklahoma, report finds
A new report found Cherokee Nation Health Services generated more than $2 billion in Oklahoma economic output in FY2025 while supporting nearly 11,500 jobs.
Inside Madonna's steamy, cheeky Grindr London album party
Step inside Madonna's "Confessions II" album launch. Yes, this is the door.
Amazon Prime members can now stream 2025 superhero hit Dispatch
Dispatch is now available on Luna
Trump's 'hero' justice offers roadmap after Supreme Court rejects birthright order
Justice Kavanaugh's concurrence outlines how Congress could legislatively restrict birthright citizenship, sparking immediate Republican action.
Casting Call: Cherokee musical ‘Nanyehi’ hosting auditions July 18-19
Actors, singers and dancers of all ages are encouraged to audition for Cherokee Nation’s historical musical “Nanyehi – The Story of Nancy Ward,” returning to Hard Rock Live Tulsa Oct.
We’re in the game: Bear Bryant Award returns to EA SPORTS College Football 27
HOUSTON, July 2, 2026 – The name of the legendary Paul “Bear” Bryant is synonymous with excellence in the game of college football, and once again, fans playing EA SPORTS College Football 27’s Dynasty Mode will have the chance to win the American Heart...
What's new to streaming this week? (July 3, 2026)
What’s new on Netflix, Prime Video, Hulu, and more? We've got you covered.
Buncombe County Detention Facility partners with Wellpath to expand mental health care
The Buncombe County Detention Facility has launched a new partnership with correctional healthcare provider Wellpath.
My favorite Kindle alternative is $30 off after a recent price increase
One of the best e-readers just got $30 cheaper.
Carolina’s School of Data and Information Sciences launches
In a campus message, Executive Vice Chancellor and Provost Magnus Egerstedt celebrated the “critical milestone” as the University builds on strengths in information, library and data sciences
'Legally Blonde' prequel 'Elle' is soulless and senseless
In the seminal 2001 comedy "Legally Blonde," our young fair-haired heroine Elle Woods (Reese Witherspoon) is a kind-hearted yet naive valley girl who trades beach days for study sessions as
How Elite Sports Coaches Make High-Pressure Decisions
Drawing on interviews with 11 elite coaches across major U.S., European, Australian, and New Zealand professional sports leagues, the authors show that high-pressure decisions aren’t a single “formula” but a set of practices that unfold before, during, and after pivotal moments—and translate directly to business leadership. Top coaches combine disciplined preparation with emotional control and social awareness during crunch time and accountability and continual system improvement after the fact.
Can GLP-1 medications improve health in people with Type 2 diabetes and PAD?
Research Highlights: GLP-1RA (glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist) medications, which are prescribed to treat Type 2 diabetes and to help with weight loss, were found to reduce the number of deaths, amputations and hospitalizations among people...
The Four Business Outcomes That Break When Enterprises Stop Validating Their Defenses - SPONSOR CONTENT FROM AWS AND TERRA SECURITY
Sponsor content from AWS and Terra Security.
NVIDIA RTX 5050 9GB may be canceled or permanently delayed, AIBs have no new information
NVIDIA’s rumored RTX 5050 9GB is not expected soon. AIB sources have not received new information on this SKU.
Milwaukee Brewers' Joey Ortiz Delivers Heroics in Late Innings
Facing roster pressure after a top prospect's arrival, the infielder silenced critics with a clutch eighth-inning blast to secure a vital victory and solidify his place with the Milwaukee Brewers.
Samsung's new wide foldable phone revealed in leaked images
The same source also posted photos of the Galaxy Z Fold 8 Ultra and Z Flip 8.
Everyday Hero: Helping respiratory care breathe into the future
The Wisconsin Society for Respiratory Care honored a UW Health leader with an Honorary Lifetime Award.
“Yellowstone” creator Taylor Sheridan slams Marvel movies and studio execs: 'It didn't used to be this way'
The screenwriter had plenty to say about the superhero studio.
'Yellowstone' creator Taylor Sheridan slams Marvel movies and studio execs: 'It didn't used to be this way'
'Yellowstone' creator Taylor Sheridan had harsh criticism for Marvel movies, saying the superhero films use 'information dumps that you have to follow to get to the action rather than actually moving plot.'
Key Trends in Health at the Milken Institute Global Conference 2026
The 29th annual Milken Institute Global Conference convened leaders from across health, science, business, finance, and policy to address the most pressing chal
Netflix and Superheroes Are Having a Rough Stretch on Streaming....
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) I have a quick prediction before we start today’s article: You might see this data in future news articles. Not my specific charts or analysis, but the core trend I’ve been monitoring—Netflix is having a lackluster Q2—will become inescapable. Often, folks want to know “What does the data say?” Well, that’s what it says. I haven’t seen this analysis hit the trades really yet, but I have a feeling some other outlets are going to start making this case soon. Remember, you read it here first. You probably have read about the problems facing superhero films at the box office this weekend. Well, this week, I explore whether superheroes are dying on TV as well! And the data says: definitely maybe! We have a lot to cover in today’s Streaming Ratings Report, which covers the two weeks of 18-May and 25-May. Today, I’m just looking at TV, like Netflix’s disappointing Q2, superhero shows underwhelming, a few TV shows dropping off the charts, The Pitt finally ending its epic run on the viewership charts (and whether “view counts” change its status as one of the biggest shows of all time), all the flops, bombs and misses, and a whole lot more. Tomorrow, I’ve got a great rundown of the film side of things. Let’s dive right in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, Showlabs, TV Time trend data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of May 18th to May 31st, 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Television - Netflix’s Q2 Slump Continues Having analyzed streaming ratings for going on half a decade, I have learned to trust my gut, but I’m always relieved when I can find actual data to back it up. For example, after a string of very popular shows like Stranger Things, Bridgerton, The Lincoln Lawyer and The Night Agent came out, week after week, in January and February, my gut wondered if Netflix had enough new and returning TV shows to sustain them throughout the year. Since then, Netflix’s post-March slate of shows has not impressed me. This week seemed to feature a potential new hit, but then, like a classic Duffer Bros. TV show, there was a twist. I speak of The Boroughs, Netflix’s latest (and last) Duffer Bros. produced show. The pitch is “Stranger Things with older actors”. And it topped the Nielsen charts: With just two weeks of viewership, The Boroughs would have been a top 25 debut show last year: But here’s the twist: Netflix has already cancelled The Boroughs! What happened? Likely a few things. First, the show didn’t do as well globally as it did in the US. As What’s on Netflix showed, it lagged behind several other shows that got cancelled. Second, its completion rate was likely low; after an initial burst of interest, it quickly dropped off on the Samba TV and Luminate charts. Third, the Duffer Bros. left Netflix for Paramount, and that may have factored into Netflix’s decision here. (Though I tend to believe that if a show is doing well, Netflix would have kept greenlighting seasons.) Still, just because I can explain why Netflix may have cancelled this show doesn’t mean I’m justifying it. In particular, as I’ve noted before, Netflix is losing a lot of their bigger shows as they reach their natural ends, and they need to replace those shows. This show had the hallmarks of a big new genre show, and it’s their biggest hit of the last few months (in the US at least), but now it’s done. Netflix’s other show this week—The Four Seasons, the second season of the “hit” show from last year—definitely disappointed. Its sophomore season had about half the viewership of the first, only 12.7 million hours. It also only had a two week run on Samba TV, and its numbers were all down on Luminate too. In other words, even with two successes, the Q2 slump for Netflix looks real: I could add to the list of disappointments: Both Lord of the Files and Man on Fire had short runs on the Nielsen charts. Running Point’s sophomore season also opened to about half its viewership, similar to The Four Seasons. A Good Girl’s Guide to Murder’s second season—see below—didn’t even make any of the three viewership charts I track, unlike the first season. Netflix is absolutely having a dismal second three months of 2026. If this Nielsen data is any indication, and I think it is, I think this will show up in Netflix’s engagement report, and maybe even their financial outcomes. And the rest of June doesn’t look much better. We have two hit shows coming back—Sweet Magnolias, one of their quietest big shows, and Avatar: The Last Airbender, a big hit for them in 2024—but the other big swings are limited series crime thrillers i.e. no future season potential. Like I said above, sometimes when I uncover a juicy nugget like this, other outlets end up writing very similar articles mimicking the data without credit. We’ll see if that happens this time! Share Television - The State of Superhero Shows on Streaming When I first heard the pitch for Spider-Noir—a Sony TV show on Prime Video that binge-released eight episodes first on MGM+ then on Prime Video two days later—I had my doubts. It’s a live-action Spider-Man show set in the 1930s, starring Nicholas Cage, based on a cameo of a character in Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. No, seriously, that’s the pitch. That could either go terrifically well or horribly wrong. Great because, Spider-Man. He’s the biggest superhero we have. I’ve seen tracking numbers that put the new _Spider-Man: Brand New Da_y as the blockbuster of the year and initial pre-sales back that up. And yet this Spider-Noir pitch feels very esoteric. (Also, the eight-episode binge release feels very “Amazon copying Netflix” again.) So what’s the data say? And what does this say about the future of superhero shows?
WhatsApp usernames arrive later this year, but the handle land grab starts now
Beat the rush
DC boss reacts to 'Supergirl' global box office flop
DC Studios boss reacted to 'Supergirl' box office disappointment after a $38 million domestic opening for the superhero movie starring Milly Alcock.
macOS 26.5.2 now available, here’s what’s new
In addition to iOS and iPadOS 26.5.2, Apple is also rolling out macOS 26.5.2. Here are the details.
Apple releases iOS 26.5.2 for iPhone, here’s what’s new
Apple has just released a new iOS 26.5.2 software update for iPhone users. Here’s what’s new in the latest release.
T-Mobile to auto-upgrade some legacy phone plans to higher-price plans
Thousands of T-Mobile subscribers are being automatically switched to new plans, with some facing a price bump of around $4 per line.
WhatsApp is launching usernames: here’s how to reserve yours
Usernames for famous figures have been automatically reserved.
T-Mobile retires legacy plans, prompting price hikes and customer backlash
Average plan increase is $4 per month
How Penn State Beaver is helping farmers respond sooner to animal health challenges
Penn State Beaver is helping strengthen animal health and agricultural resilience across western Pennsylvania through the Keystone Animal Diagnostic Center, which gives farmers and veterinarians closer access to critical and timely testing.
'Werwulf' trailer: Robert Eggers and Aaron Taylor-Johnson unleash the beast within
Get ready for the spookiest trailer you'll see today.
Growing scientific evidence links e-cigarette chemicals to heart health risks
DALLAS, June 29, 2026 — Is vaping bad for my health? As people who use e-cigarettes and their loved ones pose questions like this, growing scientific evidence shows that the answer is yes. Research studies show that several chemicals found in...
How Do U.S. Farmers Vote? It’s Complicated.
Political scientist Michael Shepherd studies rural communities. Here’s what his research says about farmers as voters.
Winning Before Kickoff: The science behind success at the 2026 FIFA World Cup
The World Cup is usually remembered for what happens after the whistle: the impossible assist, the heroic save, the deflection that turns a nation’s hope into heartbreak. But in 2026, some of the most important contests may be decided before kickoff, in training rooms, recovery suites, flight schedules, hydration plans, and cooling protocols. Science cannot eliminate soccer’s glorious unpredictability, but it can help teams survive it.
'House of the Dragon' leaves out a key detail about Rhaenyra and the Iron Throne from 'Fire and Blood'
No slicing and dicing for Rhaenyra today.
Dear 'House of the Dragon': Enough with the threats of sexual violence
"House of the Dragon" Season 3 veers too close to the worst impulses of "Game of Thrones."
“Toy Story 5 ”soars past “Supergirl”'s bumpy $38 million takeoff at the box office
D.C. and Warner Bros. were hoping for a $50–55 million return on their $170 million investment into the standalone supheroine flick.
SteamOS now offered with new gaming prebuilt PCs
MetaPCs Steamroller is a $1,299 desktop with SteamOS installed. The system uses Ryzen 5 9600X, Radeon RX 7600 and standard desktop parts.
Sony will pull Studio Canal purchases for European users
The trend of revoking access to digital purchases continues, this time affecting European customers of Sony's PlayStation Store.
From Supergirl to Muse: your complete entertainment guide to the week ahead
Milly Alcock’s Kryptonian hero bops baddies with a superdog in tow, while the Devon band return with another collection of all-caps rock
Our Editors Found 401+ Best Amazon Prime Day Deals Worth Shopping Before the Sale Ends
You have less than 24 hours left to shop deals across categories, and some of them are so good that they’re already selling out.
'The Invite' review: Olivia Wilde's sex comedy is outrageous fun
Seth Rogen, Penélope Cruz, and Edward Norton dazzle as flirty neighbors.
The Best Last-Minute Prime Day Deals on Laptops, Monitors, and PC Accessories
Find deals on PC and Apple laptops, gaming and productivity monitors, and many PC accessories that will make your work life easier.
These Deals on Video Games, Controllers, and Peripherals Will Disappear When Prime Day Ends Tonight
These are the best last-chance gaming deals for the last day of Prime Day: Save on top video games like Elden Ring, plus premium controllers, gaming mice, and essential peripherals.
Charles to join Circle Cinema Walk of Fame
Cherokee filmmaker Jeremy Charles will soon have his name set in concrete outside a storied movie theater with three other Oklahomans honored by the Circle Cinema for work in film
Science Heroes: Digging It at Groton Public Library
Unearth your love for science in this fun and interactive S.T.E.M. show for the whole family. With help from audience volunteers, we’ll conduct exciting experiments about the changing states of […]
Memorial Health Championship in full swing in Springfield
Organizers are also offering additional attractions beyond golf, including food trucks, the Scheels Fan Zone and Family Fun Day on Saturday, which features a superhero theme for children and families.
'The Vampire Lestat's Sam Reid on Magnus, Claudia, Sofia, and more
Would Lestat listen to Chappell Roan? Asked and answered.
Best Prime Day laptop deals: Save up to $970 on MacBooks, Windows PCs
Laptops are very expensive these days. These discounts help.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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