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‘Cats: The Jellicle Ball’ to close amid industry concern over Broadway economics
“Cats: The Jellicle Ball,” the ballroom-inspired reinvention of Andrew Lloyd Webber’s megamusical, will end its Broadway run at the Broadhurst Theatre on Aug.
Pixar reportedly loses 150 jobs in new round of Disney layoffs
Pixar absorbed a large share of Disney’s latest studio layoffs, according to industry reports, even as “Toy Story 5” approaches another major box-office milestone.
Exclusive: Twin sisters built GlossGenius into the latest female-founded unicorn. Now they’re debuting AI for small businesses far beyond beauty
GlossGenius just raised $44 million at a $1.15 billion valuation as it rebrands as Genius AI, moving beyond the beauty industry.
Axing UK science department risks slower policymaking, say tech leaders
Industry figures welcome Kanishka Narayan’s promotion as AI minister but warn shake-up could push sector down agenda
Clint Reilly, influential SF political strategist and San Francisco Examiner owner, dies at 79
For decades, Clint Reilly was one of the most influential figures operating behind the scenes of Bay Area politics, managing campaigns for Nancy Pelosi, Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein, advising candidates and helping professionalize a political consulting industry that would grow into a year-round enterprise. He died Sunday at 79.
Steam Deck sales tanked after Valve increased the price, latest estimates suggest decline of more than 75%
A new report suggests that Steam Deck sales have dropped significantly following Valve's price increase due to industry shortages.
California’s Business Tax Credit Cap Needs More Targeted Changes
California’s scramble to rework its business tax credit cap shows that the state is directionally correct to resist subsidy bidding wars but wrong to rewrite the economics of credits already issued after companies have already relied on them, writes Andrew Leahey.
Why has Labour briefed against Ed Miliband – is it his success and popularity?
Tories, Reform, fossil fuel industry and some in his party lined up against net zero agenda as energy secretary
Students learn about potential jobs through the Sports Business Classroom
Students got to attend the Sports Business Classroom to learn about other jobs in the sports industry
Experts agree at landmark event that simulation should be built into health system
On 15 June 2026, over 80 representatives from simulation societies, ministries of health, hospitals, universities, international organizations, professional associations and industry partners met at the WHO Academy in Lyon for a joint event of WHO and the Society for Simulation in Europe (SESAM). Together they tackled a pressing question: how can simulation move from isolated initiatives to systematic integration within health systems? The consensus was clear: simulation is no longer a niche educational tool. Beyond training, it strengthens health systems by improving quality of care, patient safety, workforce preparedness, team performance and organizational resilience.Participants agreed the evidence for simulation’s value no longer needs to be demonstrated, but that implementation remains fragmented and too often dependent on individual local champions. Bridging that gap, they said, means both generating further evidence and raising awareness among decision-makers.Discussions pointed to a shared path forward. To achieve scale and lasting impact, simulation must be embedded in national policies, workforce development plans, education systems and financing mechanisms. No institution can do this alone; stronger collaboration between governments, health institutions, academia, professional societies, international organizations and industry partners will be essential.“At the WHO Academy, we see simulation not simply as a training methodology but as a strategic tool for capacity-building, workforce readiness and stronger health systems,” said Dr Bart Janssens, Unit Head, Health Learning and Capacity Building. “This event is not only about discussion; it is about moving from ideas to action.”As health systems worldwide face workforce shortages, growing complexity of care and rapidly evolving competency needs, participants concluded that the question is no longer “Why simulation?” but rather how to scale it, how to sustain it, and how to ensure it becomes an integral part of stronger health systems.Looking aheadThe event marked the beginning of a collaborative effort rather than the end of a conversation. Over the coming weeks, WHO and SESAM will consolidate the discussions, recommendations and priorities that emerged, with a joint WHO–SESAM report to be published soon.
UFC Freedom 250 Fails to Knock Out The Ratings
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) If UFC fans wanted one image to say, “Hey, Paramount+ is crushing it with their UFC rights deal,” I could provide that image. Here it is: (Reminder: this is my creation of the Nielsen Top 30, since Nielsen doesn’t combine the lists or include sports. I take all three lists and combine them. Some streaming TV shows probably have higher ratings than many of the films on this list.) Look at that! UFC Freedom 250 is number one! It topped the Nielsen “Top 30” list for shows and films that made the top ten the week of 15-June. So if you’re a UFC fan or supporter of Paramount+, that’s the good news for you this week. This program topped the ratings charts for one week. Everything else is bad news, or at least a huge caveat to that story, which I’ll explain today in the first part of this week’s Streaming Ratings Report—for the weeks of 8-June and 15-June—which is a double issue since I’ve been writing on a bunch of topics recently. UFC Freedom 250 is one of the biggest streaming events of the year, and super relevant to Paramount+’s strategy, so it merited its own article. Let’s dive in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, JustWatch and Reelgood interest data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of June 8th to June 21st 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Check Out My Interview on UFC 250 at MMA Draw After you read this article, if you want even more thoughts on UFC and Paramount-Skydance/Paramount+, I did a written interview with MMA Draw. They asked me to answer some questions about UFC Freedom 250, and I was happy to chat with them. Find it here: [ The MMA Draw Newsletter Did Paramount really overpay for the UFC? What the data tells us so far If you know the history of American television, you also know that combat sports is often a leading indicator of the future… Read more a day ago · 10 likes · 1 comment · Nate Wilcox and Zach Arnold ](https://www.themmadraw.com/p/did-paramount-really-overpay-for?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web) I never thought I’d need a combat sports newsletter in my life, but the good folks at MMA Draw publish an excellent one on UFC, MMA, pro wrestling, boxing and more, analyzing both the sports themselves and the politics, economics and antitrust issues that impact them. Check the article and their newsletter out! Paramount+ Has Its Best Sporting Event of All Time…But Was It Worth It? Before we look at the UFC Freedom 250 data in particular, let’s talk about what we can’t say. Namely, let’s start with the lack of comparisons. First off, I’d love to put a chart out comparing this fight to past UFC fights on Paramount+…but we don’t have the data. This is the first time we’ve gotten Nielsen data about a Paramount+ UFC fight. As far as I can tell, Paramount provided data for the first fight, but it was a proprietary datecdote (saying it had “an average minute audience” of 5 million “views”) and then, for two fights, we got the linear viewership numbers when they aired on CBS, but no streaming data. Everything else was crickets. We also can’t compare this fight to other fights/combat sports on streaming, in particular the MMA and boxing, because Netflix also didn’t use Nielsen to track those events, opting for TVision and VideoAmp, respectively. (This isn’t Paramount’s fault, but does still suck.) We also can’t compare to UFC’s fights that used to be on ESPN+, since we don’t have any data for that, plus Disney+ didn’t have marquee fights. The comparisons would not be apples-to-apples. Can we compare to past Pay-Per-View fights? Absolutely not. The comparisons would absolutely NOT be apples-to-apples. That didn’t stop Paramount+, though, who bragged that their UFC events have reached drastically more people than past PPV fights. Duh. Sorry, but I gotta make this point again. A basic tenet of economics is that the cheaper something becomes, the more people consume or buy it. That’s Econ 101. (Sometimes pundits call things “Econ 101” that are actually like Econ 210 or even PhD-level economics, but no, this is really like first or second class basic economics.) Yet I still see one analytics firm consistently say that more people watch films on streaming than PVOD proves streaming which means that the streaming window is more valuable than the PVOD window. No, it’s not! Same thing here. Pay-Per-View events back in the day could be really, really, really expensive! So whole groups of people pitched in to buy them. That increased the perceived value of, say, the Mike Tyson fight. Or a UFC numbered event. So yes, the fact that Paramount+ makes numbered UFC fights essentially “free” if you’re already a Paramount+ member means consumption will go up. Obviously. Same for Netflix and their boxing matches. They’re talking about fights that used to cost consumers, in some cases, $50 in 1996…which is over $100 in today’s dollars. Over 1.6 million people paid that to watch the Tyson-Holyfield fight! Again, streaming is essentially “free”. Or $10 to $20, depending on what streamer we’re talking about and what tier you’re on. No wonder more people are “watching”. (Plus, Nielsen’s out-of-home viewing also helps these numbers.) UFC Freedom 250 Did Well…But I Have A Lot of Worries So what can we compare the fights to? Well, the good news is Nielsen put out that the fight averaged 7.0 million viewers for UFC Freedom 250, which is a solid number for a fight. We also know the length, at roughly 4 and a half hours. (I saw different run times, but this seems to be the consensus considering it started at 8 pm, had a delay and then finished after midnight on the East Coast. If you assume a shorter run time, then yes, the total hours viewed would go down.) That means I have the two numbers needed to add this to my Nielsen database. And then…I can compare this viewership to the NFL: And, uh, not great. But also within striking distance, mainly because the runtime for this event was so long. I’d also add that this event had viewership equal to a regular season NFL game on streaming, but if anything, it was more comparable to an NFL playoff or Super Bowl-esque event. And you can compare viewership to the top football games on broadcast, cable and streaming, and it’s not impressive at all: We can also compare it to other sports that week, including the NBA Finals and start of the World Cup: Again, not great. The NBA generated roughly four times as many average viewers each game for its NBA Finals. The World Cup has similarly big numbers. Also, that’s just a tiny fraction of the 25 most watched sporting events each week. The NBA, NHL and FIFA World Cup had many, many more games racking up hours. We could also compare this to other streaming programs to get an idea of “is this a good investment?” and here is how it ranks compared to other top Paramount+ programs: The worry here? Well, unlike scripted programming, which has rewatchability, older fights/sporting events have very little library value. Very, very few people are rewatching these fights, especially years from now. Paramount has also released datecdotes bragging about their subscriber numbers. Earlier this year, they claimed that the first UFC fight on Paramount+ brought in 1 million subscribers. Then, in their quarterly earnings report, they only ended up with 700K subs. Not great! They claimed they dropped lower-value international subscribers, but that’s why I tend to discount subscriber additions when they’re leaked to the press.1 I expect we may see a bump again for UFC Freedom 250, but I’d caution using subscriber growth so soon after these events to judge the success, since new subs with high churn (see Peacock) aren’t great either. Also, analysts often want to attribute all subscriber growth to their favorite/pet show, and that just doesn’t make sense. The biggest caveat for UFC Freedom 250 and Paramount’s very first UFC marquee event is that these could be high watermarks for the sport. UFC Freedom 250 had an incredible amount of earned media coverage compared to most UFC fights. I mean, it had wall-to-wall national news coverage in the lead up to the event. (The first fight also had a lot of promotion from Paramount since it was first.) Other fights could reach this bar—say the Conor McGregor return to the Octagon—but they’ll be fewer and far between. Was This Deal Worth It? All to ask: is this Paramount deal worth it? In this case, I think the UFC Freedom 250 numbers are more distracting than helpful. This fight did well and compares well to other top sporting events. But we know that the first marquee event was at least a third smaller, if Paramount’s own data is to be believed. And it’s likely the other fights are much, much, much smaller. And then you get to the paycheck that Paramount-Skydance paid. FIFA’s World Cup cost about the same for Fox, but clearly generated multiples more total viewership. (Though it’s only every four years.) The NBA is much more expensive, but until the playoffs, they likely didn’t pay for itself. Even still, Disney, NBCUniversal and Amazon Prime Video likely overpaid. So, in that context, the NBA may be an overpay that makes the UFC look not so bad. But two overpays don’t make an underpay, to paraphrase the old cliché about wrongs and rights. And looking at UFC Freedom 250 as the likely ceiling of MMA on Paramount+, Paramount-Skydance likely paid too much. Share 1 I would love regular reports on subscriber additions by programs, but as is, it’s mostly leaked or rumored in haphazard ways.
NY Attorney Letitia James praises federal judge’s ruling to pause entertainment industry merger
A FEDERAL JUDGE’S restraining order on Monday halts an $81 million Paramount/Warner Brothers Discovery merger.
Louisiana communities are left in the dark on toxic air – and industry helped keep it that way
How lawmakers weakened community air monitoring as industry pushed back against greater scrutiny
AMC Entertainment CEO Adam Aron on record Q2 results: People love to go to movie theaters
AMC Entertainment CEO Adam Aron joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the company's quarterly earnings results, state of the movie industry, weekend box office, impact of AI, and more.
Watch CNBC's full interview with AMC Entertainment CEO Adam Aron
AMC Entertainment CEO Adam Aron joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the company's quarterly earnings results, state of the movie industry, weekend box office, impact of AI, and more.
Bristol Myers Squibb Building Life Science Industry’s Most Advanced AI Factory on NVIDIA Vera Rubin
The pharmaceutical company has demonstrated how AI can transform how drugs discovery and is now scaling AI across R&D to accelerate the discovery of next-generation medicines.
Conversation With: Dr. Nagaraj Kikkeri, Hinkapin Health
The founder and CEO shares why she thinks healthcare pricing remains broken, what employers are demanding these day, and why compassion over cost should shape the industry's future.
Kaneka pitches “mitoceuticals” as mechanism-led mitochondrial health supplements
Cellular health is becoming increasingly important as industry and science reveal that health systems are interconnected. The mitochondria are especially central in this understanding, as it addresses healthy aging, healthspan, and lifestage demands. Nutrition Insight speaks with Kaneka Corporation and Kaneka Ubiquinol’s consultant to learn about how nutrition is evolving on an industry and consumer level. “Over the past decade, we’ve seen nutrition evolve from addressing nutrient deficiencies to supporting specific conditions and now toward supporting healthspan — the health and well-being across life stages,” says Tsuyoshi Takakuwa, head of Marketing and Sales Team (APAC), Supplemental Nutrition Business Division at Kaneka Corporation.
Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) Opens Record Coaster As Investors Ask If The Stock Is A Bargain
Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) just opened Tormenta: Rampaging Run at Six Flags Over Texas, a record-setting giga dive coaster that could influence how investors think about the company’s park assets and guest appeal. See our latest analysis for Six Flags Entertainment. Despite the buzz around Tormenta: Rampaging Run, Six Flags Entertainment’s share price has softened recently, with the 30-day share price return down 29.71%, while the 1-year total shareholder return has declined 43.38%,...
Health tech firm Craneware says customer and staff data stolen in cyber attack
The Edinburgh-based company provides software to the US healthcare industry, including thousands of hospitals, clinics and pharmacies.
Ireland's World Cup play - Live Updates
Ireland is hoping the global sporting spotlight surrounding the World Cup will also shine on its growing sports technology industry.
Cliff Bleszinski Blames Ego And Alcohol For Boss Key’s Failure
Following a seizure this year, the former rock star of game development opens up about his infamous exit from the industry, taking responsibility for the studio’s inability to create a hit
Congress Must Stop Enabling Trump's Crypto Corruption
With the CLARITY Act, Washington is cashing in on the crypto industry. Americans will pay the price.
An ascendant Boeing could best rival Airbus
The plane-makers' highs and lows will be on display at this year's Farnborough Airshow, the industry's marquee sales event.
NH's Business: Could the life science industry drive NH economy?
Fred Kocher sits down with Lucy Lange with the NH Department of Business & Economic affairs and Andrea Hechavarria with NH Life Sciences about how the life science industry has impacting the state's economy.
NH's Business: Could the life science industry drive NH economy?
Fred Kocher sits down with Lucy Lange with the NH Department of Business & Economic affairs and Andrea Hechavarria with NH Life Sciences about how the life science industry has impacting the state's economy.
20 New Watches You Missed from Seiko, Swatch, Citizen, Casio and More
Keep time with the industry's most exciting new watches, including Seiko, Swatch, Citizen, Casio and more.
Norfolk Southern’s effort to expand business is both first and final
LAKE GENEVA, Wis. — Norfolk Southern’s Stefan Loeb has a job title that, in the rail industry, is as unique as it is unwieldy: vice president, business development and first and final mile markets. “Everyone goes, what is it?” he says of that first-and-final label. “And you know, I’m still figuring it out. That’s kind of the funny thing. But really
Perspective: Abandoning business
For businesses in our industry and similar sectors, the recent primary results were an alarming wake-up call that many read as “get out of Dodge, now.” To say that the results in both the Democratic and Republican primaries were surprising and disturbing to many in the business community would be an understatement. On the Republican […]
Perspective: Abandoning business
For businesses in our industry and similar sectors, the recent primary results were an alarming wake-up call that many read as “get out of Dodge, now.” To say that the results in both the Democratic and Republican primaries were surprising and disturbing to many in the business community would be an understatement. On the Republican […]
The biggest winners of the American economy fear they’re sinking fast
Waves of layoffs and growing pressure to automate jobs are creating existential panic in the tech industry. Economists say other white-collar workers are next.
Is Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) Undervalued After Its CTF Life Awards Deal?
Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) is back in focus after CTF Life agreed to become the exclusive title sponsor of the 2026 TMElive International Music Awards, bringing the event to Hong Kong for the first time. See our latest analysis for Tencent Music Entertainment Group. Despite the CTF Life partnership putting Tencent Music Entertainment Group back in the headlines, the stock’s recent performance has been mixed, with a 1 month share price return of 4.95% contrasting with a year to...
The anti-aging industry promises to extend life. Here's the reality
The fear of aging is driving a wave of biohacking businesses promising to help restore youth and fight disease. Four Corners investigates the race to reverse the aging process.
How a science experiment to grow native plants on Copper’s slopes is inspiring collaboration in the ski industry
Katherine Riesberg, a graduate of Middle Park High School in Grand County, has been skiing since the age of two. Riesberg said her love for outdoor recreation is a big part of what led her...
How a science experiment to grow native plants on Copper’s slopes is inspiring collaboration in the ski industry
Katherine Riesberg, a graduate of Middle Park High School in Grand County, has been skiing since the age of two. Riesberg said her love for outdoor recreation is a big part of what led her...
Wisconsin Farm Tech Days highlights grain bin safety, farm history, health screenings, and volunteers
Wisconsin Farm Technology Days is wrapping up its three-day event in Stratford, showcasing the latest technology in the agriculture industry. The event was held at Redetzke’s No Joke Dairy.
Everyone’s Watching Women’s Sports – The ESPYs Breakthrough Award Proved It
Olympic Champion Alysa Liu won the 2026 ESPY Best Breakthrough Athlete award, marking a historic five-year win streak for female athletes in an evolving sports industry.
AMC (AMC) Stock Trades At A Discount On Its 99% Five Year Slump
AMC Entertainment Holdings stock now trades around US$1.94 after a long slide in which shareholders have seen the value of their investment fall about 99% over five years, while some valuation checks still suggest the shares are not clearly expensive on current metrics. Over the past five years, AMC Entertainment Holdings has declined about 99%, which means any fresh move in the share price carries outsized importance for existing holders. Recent balance sheet moves to refinance high...
How a science experiment to grow native plants on Copper’s slopes is inspiring collaboration in the ski industry
Katherine Riesberg, a graduate of Middle Park High School in Grand County, has been skiing since the age of two. Riesberg said her love for outdoor recreation is a big part of what led her...
The Bull Case For Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) Could Change Following Its TMElive Awards Push Into Hong Kong
CTF Life recently announced a long-term partnership with Tencent Music Entertainment Group to bring the TMElive International Music Awards to Hong Kong for the first time in August 2026, with CTF Life as exclusive title sponsor. This collaboration positions Tencent Music to extend its brand beyond online platforms into a large-scale international live festival, deepening its presence in the fan-driven music ecosystem. We’ll now examine how hosting the TMElive International Music Awards in...
World Cup had a big impact on the LA restaurant industry, numbers show
Overall revenue rose significantly
Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Following Lake Tahoe Relaunch Has Fair Value Back In Focus
Caesars Entertainment (CZR) has drawn fresh investor attention after unveiling Caesars Republic Lake Tahoe Hotel & Casino and completing a multi phase refresh of the former Harveys Lake Tahoe with updated rooms, gaming, dining and entertainment. See our latest analysis for Caesars Entertainment. Recent events, including the Lake Tahoe relaunch and a board resignation announcement, come as Caesars Entertainment’s share price has a 90 day share price return of 9.88% and a year to date share...
Nominate Wisconsin business leaders for Marian awards by July 31
Marian University will host its 45th Business & Industry Awards on Oct. 21.
More Trust and Estate Disputes Are Becoming Business Litigation
As more families transfer business interests, commercial real estate, and other complex assets, trust and estate advisers may need to brush up on partnership law, corporate governance, contractual rights, tax planning, or real property law, FBFK Law’s Holly Gilani says.
Admin. Officials, Energy Industry Execs. & Business Leaders Attend Iraq Business Summit
Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi join administration officials, energy industry stakeholders and business leaders at the U.S.-Iraq High-Level Business Summit hosted by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington, DC.
Hochul drums up support for data center moratorium
The roundtable included perspective local government leaders, those in the agricultural industry, and utility advocates who stressed the need to plan ahead
Tiffany Naiman Breaks Down the World Cup Halftime Entertainment Show - The UCLA Herb Alpert School of Music
The 2026 World Cup brought a renewed focus on entertainment. Tiffany Naiman, director of the Berry Gordy Music Industry Center, explores why music has become central to FIFA's global strategy and examines its partnership with the Recording Academy.
SUD Industry Optimistic Despite Reimbursement Woes
This is an exclusive BHB+ article. A few months ago, I was moderating a panel on M&A in behavioral health, and a theme emerged: savvy buyers could get
LSU students build AI solutions to help Baton Rouge businesses work smarter
LSU students showcased practical artificial intelligence solutions for four Baton Rouge organizations during the Spring 2026 LSU AI Showcase, the culminating event for a selective capstone course that partners technically advanced students with industry sponsors to solve real-world business challenges. Throughout the semester, student teams worked closely with representatives from MMR Group, Baton Rouge Community […]
San Util Design gears up for move to Washington, announces business model changes
This article ran in the June issue of Bicycle Retailer & Industry NewsWINTER PARK, Colo. — San Util Design, a company that handcrafts bags and gear for backcountry travel, bikepacking, and mountain biking, is moving operations from Colorado to Bellingham, Washington. The move, which was planned for the end of June, coincides with changes to San Util’s business model.
AGC NYS: Data center moratorium a 'missed opportunity' for construction industry
Gov. Kathy Hochul says New York will “lead the way in creating the strongest standards in the nation for data center development,” but critics say this will hurt the Empire State’s bottom line.
The States Try to Topple WarnerMount…Thus Begins the Local Antitrust Era
(Welcome to the “Most Important Story of the Week”, my bi-weekly strategy column analyzing the most important (but often not buzziest) news story of the last two weeks. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. Please subscribe.) Well, it looks like it’s time for another strategy column. Can I finally avoid writing about M&A? No, it seems I cannot. Admittedly, I’m a week early with this column, since I usually put it out every other week. But this news couldn’t wait. This will make three “Most Important Stories” in a row with a merger or acquisition as its centerpiece. First, Roku-Fox (an acquisition), then Comcast-NBCUniversal (a divestment!), and now the State AGs and the WGA’s lawsuits against Paramount’s pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery (antitrust). M&A is usually the “most important” topic any given week, simply because a giant company merging or breaking up (or preventing those outcomes) can have the biggest impact on the streaming board. If you think about these companies as players in a game, changing the number of players is one of the biggest changes you can make. I shouldn’t really complain, either, since this lawsuit is very good news for customers and suppliers (econ speak for talent, workers and indie studios in Hollywood). So let me answer some questions about this potential trial, along with (shudder) making some heavily caveated predictions. I’ll also look at whether Hollywood must consolidate, whether or not the states can win, trouble at X-Box, Netflix’s YouTube binge, and more. Plus, I have five images that visualize this merger and the harm, including three brand new data looks you’ve never seen before. Subscribe Most Important Story of the Week - Can The States and the WGA Stop Hollywood’s Consolidation (Crisis)? If every other newsletter and news outlet is writing about the same story, I try to avoid writing about it as well, but I can’t ignore a story this consequential. The story of the last year was the fate of Warner Bros. Discovery, and this development potentially extends that saga into 2027. As I tried to figure out my angle, I realized, like my last column, I’m again faced with a series of questions. These questions, though, are much more forward-looking. Will the states win? Will the WGA win? If so, what happens to Warner Bros. Discovery? Either way, will this chill the market for future mergers? So you know what that means: predictions. About the future, no less, the hardest thing to predict.1 Just remember: nothing here comes with a guarantee. And the more confident someone is in their predictions, the less you should trust them. This situation is incredibly fluid, nuanced, uncertain and tenuous. So let’s try to explain what may happen. Question: Why File this Lawsuit? I’ll admit, a few months back, I was fairly pessimistic about the fate of this lawsuit. Rumors had started bubbling up that the state Attorneys General (in particular California) wanted to settle with either some minor divestments (usually CNN) or behavioral remedies. And that tracked for me: the states usually settle lawsuits, like the recent John Deere right-to-repair suit. Yet, they plan to fight this. (As they did the LiveNation-Ticketmaster monopolization trial and the Nexstar-Tegna merger.) Honestly, that also makes a ton of sense. Frankly, this move is just good politics for these State AGs. Most are still running for higher and higher office in blue states—some folks have emphasized that only Democratic AGs joined this suit, but given the Ellison/Trump ties, and fears of retribution, that tracks—and a high profile case like this will help them move up the electoral ladder, especially since Paramount and its leadership (the Ellisons, father and heir) have sided with the other side of the political aisle. That makes them unsympathetic to Democratic voters and Hollywood workers in particular. Why did this lawsuit happen? In addition to the very real concerns about industry consolidation, this is why. That said, I don’t think we would have seen this lawsuit for Netflix and Warner Bros., simply because they’re more sympathetic and aligned with Democrats. But those consolidation concerns are real. The “town”—meaning Hollywood and such—really is seeing the damage of mergers on this industry. That’s why the WGA also filed its own lawsuit in defense of workers as well. (Wildcard: What about Europe? Will they try to stop the deal, too? There have been some rumors out of the UK they may try to fight the deal, and UK enforcers just stopped a Getty Images-Shutterstock tie up, so there is precedence. This argument could go either way, though. On one hand, the EU doesn’t need to step in, cause they states are handling it. On the other hand, this could make the EU’s case easier. Just imagine if both sides coordinated. I’ll simply say, “We’ll see!”) Question: Will The State AGs or the WGA Win? Can the state AGs play David to Paramount-Skydance’s Goliath here? That’s really the whole thing, isn’t it? If you know this result, you could make a lot of money. When things are uncertain, it’s tempting to shrug and say, “Eh” meaning it’s a 50/50 proposition. I wouldn’t, though. When in doubt, you should expect that the merging parties succeed. AT&T did successfully buy Warner Bros., after all, and Disney bought Fox without any challenges. Many judges are extremely sympathetic to mergers, and I’d bet the state AGs get a judge who will allow the merger. (Even Obama-appointed judges often allow mergers.) As I understand it, we’ll see two main attacks. First, theatrical films. The AGs are arguing that, when it comes to share of box office and the number of both “wide releases” and blockbuster (or “tentpole”) films, the merging parties will have over 27% market share. Now, the Supreme Court once ruled from on high that any merger that exceeds 30% is presumptively illegal, but that’s guidance, not an ironclad bar. Still, the states will have to argue that this is close to having too much power, and with that power, this will likely further worsen the theater/studio splits in particular. Indeed, as Matthew Stoller pointed out, “just five studios are responsible for 95% of all blockbusters; if this merger goes through, then Paramount and Disney will control 60% of that.” So yes, movie studios will be very concentrated after this merger. Want me to visualize some of that? Well, here’s the share of films that grossed over $200 million at the domestic box office since 2022. (Note: this isn’t all films released in over 3,000 screens, but it is a good look at market power.) First, here are the 43 films by studio: Notice all the blue (Disney), orange (Universal), and purple (Warner Bros)? Yeah, those studios are powerful, and this combines Paramount with one of them. Here’s the look by studio and share of the films that grossed over $200 million: Now, if you look at that and also think, “Huh, should we break up Disney?” I’m with you. I’ve seen some folks poo-poo this idea that this is a real category, but it is! For an upcoming article, I’ve been pulling data on the share of top 100 films at the box office as a share of total box office, and it’s massive. Here’s the chart: (This analysis looks at The-Number’s top 100 films and total domestic box office each year.) To be clear, tentpoles make up 80.7% of the box office each year, so I do think it’s a genuine market. (To be clear, films grossing over $50 million make up 80% of the domestic box office, and films grossing over $100 million make up 64.1%.) I mean, the top 100 films at the box office make up 95% of each year’s grosses. Worse, the combined studios will likely cut output to flex that market power. Everyone can just look at what happened to Disney and Fox to see the precedent. (With fewer films, the remaining theaters have to give more for those few films that remain.) Here’s an image I’ve used a lot, the share of wide-release films from Disney and Fox over time: The AGs will also argue that this consolidation will also impact the cable industry. In this case, the consolidation is actually worse, but that environment is…complicated. Paramount will argue that the cable industry is shrinking. That said, predictions that cable will “go to zero” also don’t look very well supported by the data, as the declines are shrinking, meaning “cable” or “vMVPDs” will likely stabilize at some point. Can the state Attorneys General win on those two main arguments? I honestly don’t know. Again, I’d bet no, since history in general supports that, but it depends on the judge/jury and how they interpret the arguments. Notably, Paramount won’t face accusations about monopoly power in other areas, like streaming, news, sports rights, or vertical integration. I tend to disagree with leaving out sports rights, but I also see the appeal for a simpler case. The states also aren’t really pushing novel theories about labor harm either, which should help. (By the way, Sean McNulty at The Ankler wrote a great run through of potential options, and Capitol Forum also wrote a great paper on theatrical consolidation. Both these pieces predated the lawsuit. Matthew Stoller is also out with his analysis of the pros and cons of the case too.) In some ways, the WGA’s case is even stronger. Quoting Sean McNulty’s summary: “The WGA is citing WARNAMOUNT as crossing a 30% market share in multiple sectors, a number that the Supreme Court has precedent for deeming “presumptively anticompetitive” in a market. According to the WGA numbers, WARNAMOUNT would have represented: - 35% of film writing jobs between 2021 and 2024 - 36% of TV writing projects between 2022 and 2025 - 38% of overall deals between 2021 and 2024” Notably, antitrust enforcers did win recently in the Penguin-Simon & Schuster merger by focusing on labor impact, so don’t count this thinking out. (Wildcard: Will the states try to get a jury trial? Most likely no, they’ll let a judge handle it. If I’m them, though, I’d try to put this in front of a jury. Juries tend to understand monopoly power in a more realistic way than judges faced with legions of economists.) Question: What if They Win? What if They Lose?
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