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Yankees news: Ryan Weathers scratched from Thursday start
Weathers scratched due to illness; Stanton not ready to be activated; Rodón likely to return Sunday; Offense dominant without much from the leadoff spot.
Bryce Miller solid in likely final rehab start
Bryce Miller goes five strong in what could be his final rehab start
Maricopa County confirms 3 new measles cases; likely infected locally
Three new measles cases are raising fresh concerns in the East Valley.
Hear That Thunder? Combine Likely OKC Title with MLB, NHL, World Cup Plays
OKC is "on another level," so sportsbooks are handicapping their title odds accordingly. With that, Sammy P has some ideas on how you can capitalize.
A Landslide in Alaska Set Off a Tsunami. There May Be More to Come.
Scientists say as glaciers retreat in a warming climate, landslide-generated tsunamis are likely to become more frequent.
In the six-way race to be California’s treasurer, it likely comes down to two Democrats
California's treasurer manages bonds, pensions, and billions in cash. These are the six people vying for the job in 2026.
India’s iPhone Hub Stunned by Movie Star Vijay’s Political Rise
In most of his films, Tamil superstar C. Joseph Vijay has saved the nation and its poor from powerful forces. He used that same script in politics this week to emerge as the unlikely winner in elections in one of India’s most economically important states.
Lightning strike likely sparked massive fire that destroyed USF St. Pete marine science lab, officials say
University of South Florida officials now believe a lightning strike sparked the massive fire that tore through the marine science lab on the St. Petersburg campus, as concerns grow over the loss of decades of research and critical equipment.
What to Know About Sony’s $7.85 Million PlayStation Settlement
Are you eligible for a payout? Probably, but it might take a while and will likely be pretty small.
Spirit Airlines is Going Out of Business. Here's What's Next for Investors.
Spirit shareholders are unlikely to get anything for their shares in the upcoming liquidation.
Apple highlights 3 enhancements coming to iPhone with iOS 26.5
Apple has released the first iOS 26.5 RC build, highlighting three enhancements coming to your iPhone. iOS 26.5 will likely...
Atlanta actor Rob Lathan embraces unlikely comeback on ‘Jury Duty’
Atlanta actor Rob Lathan, long out of the spotlight, lands a surreal role on Amazon’s hit comedy “Jury Duty” after years working a 9-to-5 job.
Science research building at Florida college likely total loss in fire
Authorities are looking into lightning as the cause of the fire as there were strong storms at the time.
AJC poll finds Bottoms leading Georgia’s Democratic race for governor
Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms has a big advantage. But about a third of likely Democratic primary voters remain undecided.
Ultimate camera flagship to launch globally: Xiaomi Mix 5 expected to sport major upgrades
Five years have passed since the Xiaomi Mix 4. Younger readers probably will not even remember Xiaomi's China-only flagship with an under-display camera, but current code analyses suggest it may finally get a successor in 2026. Particularly interesting: the ultimate Xiaomi flagship will likely also be available in Germany and Austria.
All Life on Earth Comes From One Single Ancestor. And It's So Much Older Than We Thought.
All life on Earth can be traced back to a Last Universal Common Ancestor, or LUCA—and it likely lived on Earth only 400 million years after its formation.
Even a little alcohol here and there damages brain health, study shows
Even people who never exceed the recommended limits for alcohol consumption are likely to experience brain health problems as they age, a new study suggests.
Fire Damages USF Marine Science Lab; Hazmat Evaluation Planned Overnight
A multiple-alarm structure fire significantly damaged a marine science laboratory, with officials indicating the building is likely a total loss due to extensive water and fire damage. The fire was reported at approximately 5:12 p.m. on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Fire crews reported that the structure was already heavily involved in the attic upon arrival. […]
How a double substitution turned Leeds' season around
If Leeds are able to retain their top-flight status, the majority of supporters are likely to point to wins against relegation rivals Wolves, Burnley and West Ham as the defining moments of the season. The 49-year-old is more likely to point to a 3-2 defeat by Manchester City in late November as the moment his side's fortunes changed - and the numbers back it up. After goals from Phil Foden and Josko Gvardiol put City 2-0 up inside 25 minutes, Leeds were left fearing the worst.
Disentangling the many factors at play within exposure science
Take a brief walk outside and you're likely to encounter a wide range of things that could influence your health—the sunlight beaming on your face, a plume of exhaust, or even noise from a car driving ...
Why do crabs walk sideways? Scientists trace it back 200 million years
Crabs’ famous sideways walk may trace back to a single evolutionary moment 200 million years ago. Researchers found that most modern crabs inherited this trait from one ancestor—and never looked back. The movement likely gave them an edge, helping them dodge predators with quick, unpredictable bursts. It’s a rare example of a behavior evolving once and then dominating an entire group.
Recession, 20% stock market plunge likely by year-end: Gary Shilling
Legendary economist Gary Shilling says the S&P 500 could end tumble by as much as 30% this year as stocks get punished for high valuations.
2026 Senate races to watch: From most likely to flip to Democratic long shots
Democrats could have a narrow path to winning the Senate, with these specific states on the table.
Trump endorses Andy Barr in race to succeed Mitch McConnell
Trump also asked one of Barr’s rivals to drop out of the Republican primary in Kentucky, where the winner of the GOP primary is likely to succeed McConnell.
Study: AI models that consider user's feeling are more likely to make errors
Overtuning can cause models to "prioritize user satisfaction over truthfulness.”...
Business Lookahead: Eyeing oil, US jobs, and European earnings
STORY: From high oil prices and the conflict in the Middle East to U.S. jobs data and corporate earnings, here’s what you need to watch in business and finance in the week ahead.:: Crude and currencyOil prices briefly topped $120 a barrel this week to hit their highest level since 2022 as the war with Iran enters a third month.While the U.S. and Iran face pressure to end a conflict that has shut the Strait of Hormuz, the world watches anxiously as the biggest-ever disruption to energy supplies unfolds.For each week the Strait is closed, keeping oil elevated, the greater the economic risks via higher inflation or weak growth or, for some, both. Oil importer Japan just intervened to prop up a yen that has been weakened by the conflict.A new month is now underway and some traders will be mindful of that old adage, "Sell in May and go away.":: Jobs gyrationsAs the U.S. economy grapples with fallout from the Middle East war, Wall Street's radar turns to Friday's April monthly payrolls report.The U.S. economy likely created 73,000 new jobs, economists polled by Reuters forecast. In March, payrolls increased by 178,000, the most since December 2024, but that followed a sharp decline in February.The U.S. employment data comes amid signs of hawkishness at the Federal Reserve, as Donald Trump pick Kevin Warsh prepares to take over as chair with the U.S. president keen on rate cuts.:: Starmer’s statusThursday's local elections in Britain, usually a non-event for investors, could move markets in a big way, with opinion polls pointing to a heavy defeat for Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour Party.A heavy defeat could spark more widespread demands for his dismissal among his own lawmakers and stoke expectations of a successor more willing to run looser budgets. That would bring more bad news for British bonds.::European earningsIt's a big week for European earnings with Shell and Commerzbank among those reporting.On aggregate, profits are expected to grow 3.2% in Q1, according to LSEG I/B/E/S. Under the surface, it's a little bit more complicated. Growth is expected to be driven by just three sectors: financials, tech and energy. The latter is seen as the biggest beneficiary of the Iran war due to higher oil and gas prices.But if the war, and energy surge, persist, the overall outlook for Europe's earnings could turn.
Spirit is running out of money and time. Trump sounded tepid about a deal to save it
President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House Friday that the administration will likely make an announcement on its decision whether or not to bail out Spirit Airlines “today or tomorrow.”
Joe Mazzulla: An unlikely calming presence in Boston sports
Boston Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla has been stabilizing amid negative headlines for Red Sox, New England Patriots.
Apple just strongly hinted that one rumored product isn’t launching soon
While giving guidance for its next quarter, Apple strongly implied that one specific new product is unlikely to launch very soon.
What to Know About the Maine Senate Race After Janet Mills Drops Out
The exit of Gov. Janet Mills kicked off the general election early in what is likely to be one of the most important, expensive and combative Senate races of 2026.
‘Public health time bomb’: How France allowed cadmium to poison its crops and soil
French residents are three to four times more likely to register unsafe levels of cadmium in their bodies than their European counterparts, ingesting dangerous amounts of the carcinogenic metal through…
Supreme Court’s Voting Rights Ruling Could Fuel New Gerrymandering Era
The expected flood of new congressional maps is likely to produce fewer competitive districts, fewer ways for voters to hold elected officials accountable and more polarized politics.
As MLB bullpens keep evolving, is the sport devaluing the save stat?
Teams aren't as likely to save their best reliever for the ninth if the highest-leverage match-up comes earlier in the game.
Protect patient access to life-saving drugs
By Leslie Herod Since its inception, Colorado’s Prescription Drug Affordability Board (PDAB) created fear among patients around effects to life-saving medicines and the negative ramifications price controls have on affordability. Five years on, those fears persist. Patients and advocates continue to push for protections for those facing the very likely scenario drugs whose price is […]
Blakeman may meet matching funds criteria, review finds
An exclusive look at Blakeman’s fundraising data shows that if he wins his court battle, his campaign would likely qualify for public money.
Apple's AI Smart Glasses Likely to Support Hand Gesture Controls
Apple is developing a set of AI smart glasses to rival products like the Meta Ray-Bans, and MacRumors has learned a few more details about Apple's work on the device from an inside source. The AI glasses will include two cameras. A high-resolution camera will be included for capturing photos and videos that can be shared on social media and used like iPhone photos. A second lower-resolution wide-angle lens will read hand gestures and provide visual input for Siri.
Apple Has Likely Abandoned 'iPad Ultra' Plans
Apple has reportedly abandoned plans for a foldable "iPad Ultra" following years of disappointing sales performance for the iPad Pro. The claim predominantly comes from the Weibo leaker known as "Instant Digital," who posted the remark in response to a question about whether the iPad would join a rumored "Ultra" series of Apple devices.
Comey appears in court in Trump threat case that's likely to pose a challenge for Justice Department
ALEXANDRIA, Va. (AP) — Former FBI Director James Comey appeared in court on Wednesday, kick-starting a criminal case against him that legal experts say presents significant hurdles for the prosecution and will likely be a challenge for the Justice Department to win. Comey was indicted in North Carolina on Tuesday on charges of making threats against President Donald Trump related to a photograph he posted on social media last year of seashells arranged in the
Cause of falling fertility rates isn’t biological
Letters: Peter Foreshaw Brookes says economic conditions and smartphone usage (and its effects on coupling) are more likely causes
Political parties in Texas choose how to run their primaries. Here’s how that causes headaches for voters.
Even after this year’s chaos, lawmakers are unlikely to curb parties’ sway over primary elections.
Report: Arkansas worst in nation on healthcare for Hispanic residents
Arkansas ranks worst in the nation on health system performance for Hispanic residents, according to a new report that found existing racial and ethnic health disparities are likely to worsen in every state under recent federal policy changes.
Gasperini wants Dybala to stay
The future of Roma and Paulo Dybala will be decided in the coming days. Gasperini has asked Dan and Ryan Friedkin to meet to outline the path forward for next season. It will likely be a video call, w...
Google Tensor G6 Chip Likely To Launch With An Ancient GPU That Debuted Around 5 Years Back
Google's penchant for hobbling its mobile SoCs continues with the Tensor G6 chip, which is likely to sport a GPU that launched back in 2021!
50-foot ancient snake discovered in India may be one of the largest ever
A massive prehistoric snake discovered in India may rank among the largest ever to slither across Earth. Named Vasuki indicus, this ancient giant lived around 47 million years ago and is estimated to have stretched an astonishing 11 to 15 meters long—rivaling the legendary Titanoboa. Fossilized vertebrae unearthed from a lignite mine in Gujarat reveal a thick-bodied, powerful snake likely built for slow, stealthy ambush attacks, similar to modern anacondas.
For Democratic veterans making midterm pitches, the Iran war is personal: From the Politics Desk
Plus, King Charles addresses Congress. And why another assassination attempt isn't likely to change Trump's approach to public events.
Having a religious affiliation doesn’t prevent betting on sports
Having a religious affiliation doesn’t stop people from betting on sports in the United States, according to a new study.Results showed that people who infrequently attend religious services are more likely to gamble on sports than people who attend services at least weekly or who never worship publicly. Catholics – and especially Catholic m...
Phil Mattingly and Richard Quest explain why higher gas prices are likely here for awhile
Texas' Top Criminal Court Has Stymied the State's 'Junk Science' Law. Will SCOTUS Intervene?
If the U.S. Supreme Court renders a decision in favor of Charles Flores and others, it would likely force the Court of Criminal Appeals to relax its extremely strict handling of appeals based on shoddy and outdated science.
AMC Entertainment (AMC) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Should You Buy?
AMC Entertainment (AMC) possesses the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
Mail-In test for colorectal cancer could help community health centers increase screening
Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second most common cause of cancer death in the United States and disproportionally impacts people who receive care in under-resourced settings. Fortunately, several effective screening tests are available to detect cancer early when it is most treatable. In partnership with community health centers (CHC), investigators from Mass General Brigham and UCLA Health mailed one of two stool-based screening tests to more than 5,000 participants from CHCs in Boston and Los Angeles. Researchers found that participants were more likely to complete screening if they received a newer stool-based screening test, but follow-up colonoscopy rates remained low for those with abnormal results. Findings are published in JAMA Internal Medicine.
Federal appeals court upholds conviction of ex-Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan
The news from the 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals comes less than three weeks after oral argument and will likely prompt a bid by Madigan to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Xbox boss warns "memory costs will impact pricing, will impact availability" when it comes to Project Helix
Xbox boss Asha Sharma has admitted that the ongoing memory shortage crisis will likely impact the price point of its ne…
Ron DeSantis releases new congressional map creating four more GOP-leaning seats in Florida
Some Republicans are concerned it could put GOP incumbents in danger by spreading out conservative votes, and margins in many new seats will likely get tighter.
CDC delay of infant hepatitis B shot likely to raise infections, studies show
Federal vaccine advisers to Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. voted in December to recommend delaying the first shot until at least two months of age for infants born to mothers who test negative for the virus.
Netflix Co-Founder Sees Entertainment Resisting AI
Netflix (NFLX, may be less vulnerable to artificial intelligence disruption than many firms but its greater risk could be changed viewing patterns.Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings said the entertainment industry will likely be one of the least disrupted sectors because customers care about human c…
All coffee, even decaf, can improve mood, brain health, study finds
Coffee, even the decaffeinated variety, can help improve a person's mood and has a protective effect on brain health, and that is likely because of its effect on the gut.
Late-Night Noshing Could Contribute To Stress-Related Bathroom Problems
By Dennis Thompson HealthDay ReporterMONDAY, April 27, 2026 (HealthDay News) — Late-night snacking could be worsening your stress-related bowel problems, a new study says. People who eat lots after 9 p.m. can be more than twice as likely to experience constipation and diarrhea, researchers will ...
Like Hart, sky-high political prospects of Swalwell given ‘The Monkey Business’
Eric Swalwell’s promising political career has likely reached an ignominious terminus. The man who aspired to the presidency in 2020 was plotting another route to that destination. Having entered California’s 2026 jungle primary for the governor’s office in Sacramento, he was leading the field when the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN ambushed the evident frontrunner […]
Like Hart, sky-high political prospects of Swalwell given ‘The Monkey Business’
Eric Swalwell’s promising political career has likely reached an ignominious terminus. The man who aspired to the presidency in 2020 was plotting another route to that destination. Having entered California’s 2026 jungle primary for the governor’s office in Sacramento, he was leading the field when the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN ambushed the evident frontrunner […]
Toxins plus climate harms likely cause of reduced fertility, study finds
Researchers find ‘alarming’ effect on fertility across global species from simultaneous exposures
DNA research just rewrote the origin of human species
Scientists have uncovered a surprising new picture of human origins that challenges the long-held idea of a single ancestral population in Africa. By analyzing genetic data from diverse modern African groups—especially the highly distinct Nama people—and comparing it with fossil evidence, researchers found that early humans likely evolved from multiple intermingling populations over hundreds of thousands of years. Rather than a clean split, these groups stayed connected, exchanging genes even after beginning to diverge around 120,000–135,000 years ago.
Steam Controller review leaks, but price of Steam Machine accessory may disappoint
After reports that Valve had received shipments of the accessory, a Steam Controller review has appeared. Deleted ahead of a likely release date update, a YouTuber praised its responsive dual trackpads. Even so, the price may make it more difficult to discount the Steam Machine.
Curious Kids: Is the science that we do today truth, likely to be a lie, or is it undetermined?
In reality, science is not really a specific thing to like or hate, or something to believe in or not.
iPhone 18 Pro Max design unit hands-on video shows 25% smaller Dynamic Island; variable aperture likely
Hands-on video of the iPhone 18 Pro Max dummy units reveal a 25% smaller Dynamic Island and a thicker camera array with larger lenses, hinting at the rumored variable aperture for the main 48MP camera. The iPhone 18 Pro Max appears boring next to iPhone Ultra/Fold, but this might be the biggest front upgrade for Apple's Pro iPhone since iPhone 14 Pro.
Republicans’ Likely Strategy as Midterms Near: Negative Campaigning
Republicans are likely to fall back on a tried-and-tested strategy for the midterms: Going negative.
Trump’s effort to bar migrants from claiming asylum at the border rejected, setting up possible Supreme Court showdown
A divided federal appeals court on Friday rejected President Donald Trump’s effort to unilaterally bar migrants who cross the US-Mexico border from seeking asylum, teeing up a likely showdown over the policy at the Supreme Court.
Mental health access suffers as five CT insurers violate parity law
Connecticut residents were four times more likely to use out-of-network mental health providers than for primary care, a report found.
Betis vs Real Madrid, 2026 La Liga: Predicted lineups
Real Madrid visit Sevilla to face Betis, and they’ll do so without key players Eder Militao and Arda Güler. Camavinga will likely replace the Turkish player, while Huijsen is expected to start alongside Rüdiger in the center of the defensive line. Real Madrid predicted XI: Lunin; Trent, Huijsen, Rüdiger, Carreras; Tchouaméni, Camavinga, Valverde, Bellingham; Mbappé […]
2026 NFL Draft: American Conference prospects to watch
Eli Heidenreich, Landon Robinson, and Travis Burke are among the most likely American draft selections in 2026.
New entertainment zone likely coming to Walnut Creek
A draft plan envisions a zone bound by North California Boulevard, Civic Drive, North Broadway and Mt. Diablo Boulevard.
New entertainment zone likely coming to Walnut Creek
A draft plan envisions a zone bound by North California Boulevard, Civic Drive, North Broadway and Mt. Diablo Boulevard.
M Resort tower’s December opening boosts 1st-quarter earnings for Penn Entertainment
CEO Jay Snowden also says higher gasoline prices haven’t affected casino visitation yet, likely because tax refunds have been higher than they’ve been.
Scientists trace latest interstellar comet's home to a cold, isolated corner of the Milky Way
A new study suggests that the comet that rambled past us from another star last year likely originated in a cold, isolated corner of the galaxy that had yet to gel into its own solar system.
After health insurance subsidies end, 30,000 Idahoans will be uninsured, government report says
After Congress refused to extend deeper subsidies for health insurance, 30,000 more Idahoans who had insurance are likely to be uninsured.
Scientists trace latest interstellar comet’s home to a cold, isolated corner of the Milky Way
A new study suggests that the comet that rambled past us from another star last year likely originated in a cold, isolated corner of the galaxy that had yet to gel into its own solar system.
Imagine There’s No Politics: A Review of the Northern Report
The proposals for overhauling the Institute of Education Sciences could address its operational inefficiencies but are unlikely to break through our ideological stalemate
Preview: UFC Vegas 116 ‘Sterling vs. Zalal’
Aljamain Sterling and Youssef Zalal meet in a clash with likely featherweight title implications in the main event of UFC Vegas 116 on Saturday.
How U.S. marijuana reclassification could help cannabis companies
The reclassification would likely reshape the pot industry by lowering tax burdens and making it easier for firms to secure funding.
How are leaders Hearts handling title pressure?
With five games to go Hearts are still top of the Scottish Premiership. So how are the unlikely league leaders handling the heat with five games to go?
Christian nationalists more likely to oppose gun regulations and support political violence, study finds
A new article finds that for Christian nationalists with a high gun-owner identity, there is an instilled culture of personal and community protection that makes them more likely to endorse extreme actions like violence.
Bullying, Politics Harm Mental Health Of Gender-Diverse Teens
By Dennis Thompson HealthDay ReporterWEDNESDAY, April 22, 2026 (HealthDay News) — Gender-diverse teenagers who are bullied are more likely to suffer escalating psychological distress than other teens, particularly if they live in a state with repressive gender identity laws, a new study says. These ...
An ode to IM Chron sports
If the sport is offered, it’s more than likely that we compete in it. Soccer, Kickball, Dodgeball, Flag Football (4v4 and 7v7) and Basketball (3v3 and 5v5), just to name a few.
Scientists stunned as JWST finds ice clouds on a giant alien planet
Scientists have discovered unexpected water-ice clouds on a distant, Jupiter-like exoplanet, challenging current atmospheric models. By directly imaging Epsilon Indi Ab with the James Webb Space Telescope, they found less ammonia than expected—likely hidden by thick, patchy clouds. The finding reveals new layers of complexity in giant planets and shows how much we still have to learn.
No. 24 on the list of Tampa Bay’s Most Powerful Politicians: Harry Cohen
Cohen faces re-election this year, but as a testament to his command of office, he likely faces an easy path to victory.
Mozilla Used Anthropic’s Mythos to Find and Fix 151 Bugs in Firefox
The Firefox team doesn’t think emerging AI capabilities will upend cybersecurity long term, but they warn that software developers are likely in for a rocky transition.
Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
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