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Who Won August and September: Original Films or Franchises?
(Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a newsletter on the entertainment industry and business strategy. I write a weekly Streaming Ratings Report and a bi-weekly strategy column, along with occasional deep dives into other topics, like today’s article. Please subscribe.) I just heard someone say that if you’re reading a pundit or data analyst, and they don’t tell you that they got anything wrong, they’re not a pundit but an “influencer”. I agree with that. You have to tell your audience when you get things wrong, or they won’t (or shouldn’t) trust you as much. Today, we’ve got another edition of “What I Got Right, What I Got Wrong”. In general, I’m patting myself on the back (and patting very hard) about a few things like IP at the box office, LIV golf, horror films, crowdfunding movies, superheroes, and old people going to the theaters. That said, I also made a couple of data mistakes on the streaming bubble popping and HBO’s datecdotes, so I’m not perfect. But first, I need your feedback... Subscribe Follow-Ups: What Should We Call Mid-Budget Movies Which Aren’t Cinematic Enough for Theaters But Are Too Expensive to Make Money on Streaming? After I asked for feedback on what we should call straight-to-streaming films that are too big to pencil out on streaming but not really big enough to resonate in theaters, I got some great suggestions from you all, including... “Moldilocks” from John Aboud “Little Big Indie” from Travis Frick1 “Midflicks” from Jonathan Funke. “Extra-Medium” from Jona Nwuke. (Read the explanation in the footnote.) Between these and Brandon Katz—who suggested “Bermuda Budget Triangle”, “The Platform Gap” and “The Distribution Deadzone”—we’ve got some excellent suggestions. And they’re better than my suggestion, the “Streaming Budget Dead Zone”, so let’s take a poll! The winning entry becomes the new term. Loading... RIGHT: LIV Golf is Fully Bankrupt…Is Anyone Else Next? A few years ago, I was always a bit perplexed at all the articles I’d read praising LIV Golf and their strategy to disrupt the PGA. LIV Golf, a brand new professional golf league, offered PGA stars ten times what they made on the PGA Tour to join their new league. And folks praised this strategy for its initial “success” in that a lot of big names did indeed leave the PGA. Yeah, of course the players came over. LIV Golf paid them so, so, so much more! But LIV Golf hadn’t discovered a way to increase potential revenue. So think about this in basic business terms… They paid much more in costs… …but had no real way to increase revenue. That’s not a strategy! That’s deficit financing. It won’t work unless you bankrupt the competition (and then turn around and pay those same golfers much, much less). It’s not a sustainable strategy and only lasts as long as the company/person/nation backing it decides they’re cool with losing money. For LIV Golf, that meant Middle East oil wealth, in particular Saudi Arabian money. Clearly, the current Iran War has hurt Middle East finances, so they need to trim their more exorbitant spending. And LIV Golf was part of that trimming. This should be a major warning for others. TGL’s parent company, TMRW Sports, just got a $1 billion valuation, despite TGL’s (the indoor golf league) horrible TV viewership of less than half a million viewers per match. Unrivaled, the women’s basketball league, just secured a $650 valuation, despite its horrible TV viewership and a new rival (Project B) entering the scene next year. To relate this to streaming, Hollywood should ask which streamers may have wealthy patrons funding their losses. (Let’s be clear: Google, Amazon and Apple.) Could those patrons lose their appetite? For Amazon, probably not. But Apple has a new boss, so maybe! WRONG: My Analysis of the Streaming Bubble Was Missing a Week I’m going to be congratulating myself a lot today, but I make mistakes too, like this data goof. When I last compiled the data on the decline in TV shows, I was missing one week at the end of June. If you look at the first image, you can see that one week was mislabelled as “July”. Mainly, this image got updated to show a 27% decline, not 29%: This change doesn’t really impact the overall analysis, but it is two percent better. By the way, through the third quarter, the decline increased and it’s now a 30% decrease since 2022. (I’ll write/visualize this in an upcoming article.) But I want you to trust me and my data. Especially these days, when many people are using LLMs that I know are inserting faulty data into their charts, I want to keep earning my audience’s faith. So that’s the accurate data. RIGHT: IP Remains Very, Very Popular In July, I wrote a giant (and I mean giant) article on Backrooms, Obsession, and the box office, going over what we know, what we don’t know about what works in theaters, looking at YouTubers, IP, the horror genre, comic book movies, and a whole lot more. The month of August really tested a lot of my theses and, being honest, mostly supported my arguments. Let’s start with IP. Looking at 8-Aug (the weekend after Spider-Man: Brand New Day came out) to 18-Sep (the weekend that Resident Evil came out, which I think provides a nice bookend to this time period), there were seven films based on pre-existing IP: Resident Evil (2026) ($126 million) Practical Magic 2 ($65 million) _Insidious: Out of the Furthe_r ($65 million) Coyote Vs. Acme ($59 million) Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie ($53 million) Tony ($15 million) Super Troopers 3 ($7 million) Compare those to the notable original films from the past month—I actually could have included more movies, but here are just thirteen, bringing us to an even twenty films—including.... The End of Oak Street ($54 million) Buddy ($26 million) Mutiny ($15 million) By Any Means ($15 million) The Dog Stars ($14 million) Runner ($14 million) One Night Only ($11 million) Hope ($8 million) Spa Weekend ($7 million) The Uprising ($6 million) Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma ($6 million) Onslaught ($3 million) Eli Roth’s Ice Cream Man ($2.8 million) Here’s that in chart form: Five of the top six films in this time period were all based on IP. I made a big chart of films that grossed over $200 million at the box office before Spider-Man: Brand New Day and The Odyssey hit theaters. Let’s update that chart! By the way, if you want to see how I categorized each film—so another bar chart—here it is: I know that many of my fellow critics/pundits/analysts dislike films based on IP and how Hollywood is making so many of them. And I’m sympathetic to this point of view. As I’ve written many, many times before, you need a balance between existing franchises, new IP, and original films. And Hollywood clearly needs to make more films like Resident Evil (a well-made film from a visionary director) and fewer Practical Magic 2’s (which didn’t get critical or customer buzz). But at some point, critics and pundits need to contend with what audiences are telling them: Movie-goers aren’t showing up to original films. Audiences are speaking with their dollars, telling you they want more IP and franchises. You can try to convince studio heads to make fewer IP-based films and franchises, but the data and numbers aren’t there. Instead, critics need to work harder to convince audiences to show up for original films. Aim your ire/concern at the average person, not studio heads.2 Because they’re just making the films that audiences are telling them to make. WRONG: Original Horror Films Didn’t Break Out I’ll be honest, even though I wrote an article casting some skepticism on the horror genre in July, if you asked me to make a prediction, I would have predicted that, in August, a new, original horror film would have blown up. No, seriously, I just assumed that Obsession and Backrooms presaged a change in audience behavior. But none of the buzzy new original horror films from August—Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma, Onslaught (not an action film in spite of the ads), The End of Oak Street, Eli Roth’s Ice Cream Man, or _Buddy—_broke out. To be clear, exactly one of those films (Buddy) had good “ROI”, but again—I try to be specific in my language—none were “popular” in any broad sense of the word. None of them will be “saving” movies theaters like Backrooms or _Obsession_helped save the summer. The new Insidious film and Resident Evil, both based on IP, were far and away the biggest horror films since July. (We’ll see if this changes in October/Halloween season.) RIGHT: Stay Skeptical about Crowdfunding... I’ve long been skeptical about crowd-investing platforms as one of Hollywood’s saviors, mainly because there’s so much hype/buzz. People need to stay more skeptical about more things, explaining both the potential upside but also the downsides. In particular, the media often hypes crowdfunding at the start and never checks in on the actual results after they’ve come in later. And August gave us our first update! _Ice Cream Man—_directed by Eli Roth—grossed $6 million off of a $5.5 million budget. This is a production of The Horror Section, which was one of the first “crowd investing” studios with 2,400 investors, which means that 2,400 investors probably lost money. They certainly aren’t getting as great of returns as if they had just invested their dollars in the stock market. Hopefully Stiletto (Tagline: “Someone’s Going to Make it Rain Blood!”) does better next month. WRONG: Another Data Goof Here’s another data error. When the first episode of House of the Dragon came out, HBO put out that it had 21.5 million viewers in the first three days, and I read that to mean in the US…but no, it was global. So my US-only datecdotes charts shouldn’t have included it. We never got US-only numbers for the first episode, but for the final episode, HBO put out that it had 11 million US viewers. (And that global dropped to 21 million viewers.) Here’s the updated chart (which I’ve since used in the Streaming Ratings Report): Still, this show is absolutely huge. RIGHT: Superhero Films Remain Very, Very Popular After Supergirl flopped, I read a few takes that “comic book movies are going the way of the Western”. Post-Spider-Man: Brand New Day, that take didn’t age well. To be fair, I have a very nuanced take on the superhero genre right now; it’s down right now, for a lot of reasons. But it’s not “dead”. Maybe _Spider-_Man is just a really popular character? I saw that take, and it’s a fair counter-argument. (But pundits arguing that superhero movies were dead should have mentioned this $1.5 billion counter-argument…) But is it just Spider-Man? The next Avengers film already has $50 million in pre-sales (and I was skeptical that that film would do well) and the Avengers: End Game re-release topped the box office two weekends ago (over three original films). And I wouldn’t bet against Batman or Superman. So maybe it’s just Spider-Man, Batman, Superman and the Avengers. Oh, and Deadpool, of course. And Black Panther. And Wolverine. And probably the X-Men. Plus a well-made Wonder Woman or the Hulk film could break out. But that’s it! It’s just those ten characters/teams. Oh, what’s that? Lanterns is also doing well on HBO? (See previous section…) To be fair, I’m actually pretty sympathetic to the argument that more popular characters—like Spider-Man and Batman—anchor more popular films. In fact, I made that exact argument three years ago when I first wrote about the “Marvel-cession”. In many ways, you can blame The Guardians of the Galaxy for fooling Marvel Studios (and the rest of us) into believing that any character could pop. It turns out, the list of iconic characters is probably smaller than most people think. But it’s probably too early to say that superhero films and comic book movies are dead unless “death” means a slight decline over a longtime. RIGHT: Who Killed Theaters? Old People I get frustrated whenever I see headlines or analysis about how young people are “returning” to theaters. As I’ve detailed(for years), young people have always powered the US box office, despite narratives about “kids these days” and their “phones”. Really, what’s changed post-2020/pandemic is that old people aren’t going to the movies nearly as much. This summer, I saw a movie (from an older director) in a theater near a retirement community, and multiple older people at the theater were talking about how this was their first time seeing a movie in years. I dislike personal anecdotes, so YouGov can fill in the data, best summarized by this headline: “Who killed movie theaters? Not the youths”. According to them, 64% of people aged 18-29 have seen a movie in the last year, but only 30% of 65-and-older. 20% of 18-29 have seen a movie in theaters in the last week and 42% in the last month. Here’s the polling data: Most concerning? Many Americans (17%) think theaters are a worse or much worse experience than watching films at home. Slight WRONG: Hadestown Opens Big A live theater capture of the Broadway musical, Hadestown, made $20 million at the US box office, which begs the question: was I wrong to be skeptical about musicals a few years ago? Yes and no. On the one hand, $20 million is a far cry from being “popular”, so yeah, the genre isn’t that popular overall and Hadestown is one of the more popular musicals from recent years (i.e. the “Taylor Swift Data Fallacy” in action). On the other, I doubt filming this cost all that much, and I don’t think that they spent much on marketing, so this is a good source of ancillary revenue. Smaller Updates WRONG: As I mentioned in a Streaming Ratings Report, I underestimated the budget for Enola Holmes 3. It probably cost more like $50 million, if not more. But... I’m not sure that it really matters? At sub-10 million hours, prices have to come down to make this work. WRONG: Netflix is giving Ink a 27-day in theaters! To quote the kids/YouTubers these days, let’s go! Now I might actually have a chance to see Danny Boyle’s latest in theaters. I’d complained about this in a “Coming Soon” section, but I was heartened to read that Netflix is giving multiple films longer theatrical windows this year. RIGHT: Netflix is sending 4-5 films per year to theaters. Netflix is slowly but surely sending more and more films to theaters, as I cautiously predicted earlier this year. For now, it’s just three big films and a number of awards contenders, but still, this is great news. And they’ll be releasing box office grosses! Just this week, Ted Sarandos confirmed that KPop Demon Hunters 2 will come to theaters (and my guess is it performs in the box office top ten at a minimum). WRONG: Angel has 3 million subscribers! How do I know this? Well, they told Deadline, who reported it. I marked this as “wrong”, since they’ve doubled their subscribers in one year but, you know, they don’t really have a hit film to speak of and they’re still losing money. WRONG: Furious was only renewed for one more season. I accidentally wrote “two more seasons” in my latest “Renewals, Cancellations, Un-Orders and Removals Update”. RIGHT: House of David is ending with its third season. In July, Prime Video renewed House of David for a third season, as I just wrote in my latest “Renewals and Cancellations” report. Well, now it’s ending after that third season. Why? As I’ve been writing, its viewership wasn’t great. I got feedback that this show didn’t cost very much, but it cost enough that its limited viewership didn’t save it. WRONG: Adults was a Hulu original! So I missed Adults when it first came out last year; I saw that it aired on FX and just assumed that it was a linear-first program. Turns out, it aired three episodes on FX, but binge-released the rest of its episodes the next day on Hulu. Huh. So I should have covered it last year! But I just wrote about it. 1 “When I was a kid in the 90s, if you wore a t-shirt to school that wasn’t too big and also wasn’t too small, but somehow didn’t quite fit, we’d say you were wearing an “extra-medium” shirt.” 2 As always, a huge exception is Disney, which barely makes anything original anymore.
Seminoles Should Focus on Aerial Assault vs. Louisville
Florida State has been on a roll the last two weeks. After getting its first ACC win of the season in a 38-7 beat down of Virginia, the Seminoles are looking for their third straight win against a Louisville squad that does not defend very well against the pass.
UT symposium explores AI’s growing role in future of health care
Some of the biggest names in health care, technology and research gathered at the University of Texas this week to discuss how artificial intelligence is already changing the way patients receive c…
PlayStation's PS5 to Launch New Crunchyroll Anime Hub
Sony's PlayStation will launch a new Crunchyroll anime hub within its PlayStation 5 gaming console's home screen next year.
NBA Europe plans continue after EuroLeague rejects merger
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Ex-‘Football Night in America’ Host Tony Dungy Opens Up About NBC Exit, Whether Faith Played a Role
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This Halos Hustle Player Deserves A Role Next Year
The Los Angeles Angels picked up Wade Meckler early in the season, and he became a great story.
Dietitian highlights dairy's role in student-athlete health
The role of dairy in a well-balanced diet. Emily Lyday, a registered dietitian with St. Vincent Sports Performance, says proper student nutrition helps support healthy brain and bone development. “Often times dairy comes in as a side, as an addition to their meal, just to help support it a little bit more to get some […]
This is what the 2026 Nobel prize for chemistry is all about
The Nobel prize in chemistry 2026 has been awarded to two scientists, Henri B Kagan at Paris-Sud University in France and Kensō Soai at Tokyo University of Science in Japan. Their discoveries showed how chemical reactions can produce an overwhelming excess of one of two mirror image forms of a molecule. Science journalist Linda Geddes tells Madeleine Finlay how this has become an important tool in drug development, allowing a greater understanding of how medicines work in the body
Old Boxers Never Die on Robert Street
The London Memorabilia Fair plays an important role in keeping boxing's glorious history alive
Free ‘STEAM the Block Party' aims to get DC youth involved in science, tech, arts
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Political LTE: Mia Feroleto supports Tom Charlton - The Vermont Journal & The Shopper
My name is Mia Feroleto, and I am supporting the reelection of Tom Charlton. Here are my thoughts.
Sharing moments of exceptional care from nurse turned patient at Intermountain Health St. Vincent Regional Hospital
“Can I be your nurse today?” Those words came as a comforting surprise to Jen Paulson as she awaited one of the most uncertain days of her life. As a nurse for 22 years at Intermountain Health St. Vincent Regional Hospital, she knows the role well. That morning she was preparing for a double mastectomy surgery after an unexpected breast c...
Julian Champagnie Breaks Silence on Losing Starting Role With Spurs
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Homeschool Science Day in Grove Hill hosted Oct. 15
The Grove Hill Public Library is appealing to the creativity of homeschoolers with Homeschool Science Day on Oct. 15 from 1-2:30 p.m. Students are encouraged to use any number of items from around the house to build a medieval creation, including paper towel rolls, paper plates, rubber bands, string and foil. Some of the library’s
A Massive Hole Opened Up in Antarctica. Scientists May Have Finally Figured Out Why
The open-water hole stretched across 34,400 square miles, or roughly the size of Portugal.
We need stronger sexual health education — the ‘Cornell 7’ case shows why
Allegations of sexual assault at Cornell University, and the public response to them, reveal persistent misunderstandings about consent, bystander responsibility and sexual violence.
All 50 States Should Legalize The 'Booming Business' Of Marijuana, Brittney Griner Says
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Rosalind Franklin had seen the helix: A forgotten photograph rewrites the history of DNA’s structure
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PS5 Fans Think They May Have Found Evidence of an Enhanced PS Portal
OLED screen incoming?
iOS 27.2 release date: New iPhone features are coming soon
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AI behaves more like a brain than a database – cognitive science’s role in its origin story helps explain why
This article by Michael Hout, New Mexico State University, and Arryn Robbins, University of Richmond, first appeared in The Conversation, republished with permission.
This Rice University professor has helped pick more than a dozen Nobel Prize winners
Pernilla Wittung-Stafshede spent years on the Nobel Committee for Chemistry. She left the role for a job at Rice — but still knew who this year’s winner was.
Film Festival Will Screen ‘Beyond The Duplex Planet’
The Woods Hole Film Festival’s Dinner & A Movie series continues on Saturday, October 17, with “Beyond The Duplex Planet,” a new feature documentary by Emmy-winning, Grammy-nominated filmmaker Beth Harrington.
Why a healthcare worker traded a career in hospitals for business ownership in Alexandria
After years of treating patients with preventable chronic illnesses, Nicole Batts wanted to leave the healthcare industry and help people get healthy before reaching the hospital. Batts took over ownership of Old Town's Fitness Together Alexandria (300 N Washington Street, Suite 106) in 2019. That comes after working in nursing in the surgical intensive care
At Black business expo, officials urge owners to 'speak up'
Black small business owners are facing economic conditions similar to those they dealt with as a result of COVID-19, Black Economic Council of Massachusetts CEO and President Nicole Obi said
AI behaves more like a brain than a database – cognitive science’s role in its origin story helps explain why
Modern AI owes its existence to both cognitive and computer science. What you envision as its origin story can influence how you understand what large language models can do.
Maximilian Eggestein explains what makes ‘the perfect Freiburg player’
SC Freiburg midfielder Maximilian Eggestein has spoken at length on his role within Julian Schuster’s side, the importance of sacrificing individual ambitions for the collective and his plans to rem...
Apple Reportedly Waiting on Samsung for Ultimate Bezel-Free iPhone Display
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AI behaves more like a brain than a database – cognitive science’s role in its origin story helps explain why
Modern AI owes its existence to both cognitive and computer science. What you envision as its origin story can influence how you understand what large language models can do.
The people of UTC: Get to know Center for Wellbeing Director Lucy White
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Award-Winning QB Ashton Daniels's Season Needs Re-Evaluation
Davey O'Brien National QB of the Week Ashton Daniels willed the Florida State Seminoles to victory last Saturday against Virginia, setting a school record with five rushing touchdowns in a 38-7 win. With two losses to ranked teams, the blame for the team's misfortune hardly belongs to Daniels alone.
Scientists changed how zoo lions eat. Their wild side came out
Giving zoo lions whole carcasses on a feast-and-fast schedule appears to bring out more natural behavior. The lions spent nearly three times longer feeding, engaged in more tearing and manipulating of food, and rested more heavily after meals. Their activity then increased gradually during the fasting period, closely resembling the rhythm seen in wild lions.
Patriots’ Latest Injury Could Open Door For Unexpected Breakout
A chance for a bigger role for the hero of Sunday's game
Gaza, Sudan, Ukraine: Tracking Outbreaks Amid Conflict
War recovery plans should include detailed monitoring to prevent diseases like polio and cholera from spreading
GLP-1 Drugs? Surgery? WHO Issues Guidelines For Obesity In Children
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Xbox bets on Gears of War: E-Day in battle of gaming giants
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Nobel prize in chemistry awarded for work on mirror-image molecules
Henri B Kagan and Kensō Soai awarded prize for discovery of nonlinear effects and autocatalysis in asymmetric organic synthesis
Henri Kagan and Kenso Soai awarded the Nobel Prize in chemistry for unraveling mystery of asymmetric chemistry
The 2026 Nobel Prize in chemistry has been awarded to Henri B. Kagan and Kenso Soai for groundbreaking work in the field of asymmetric chemistry – unraveling the mystery of how molecules exist in non-identical mirror images of each other.
Nobel Prize in chemistry set to be awarded in Stockholm
Last year, three scientists won the Nobel Prize in chemistry for their development of new molecular structures that can trap vast quantities of gas inside.
UToledo Health’s Annual Trunk-or-Treat at New Location on Health Science Campus
The fifth annual event returns Saturday, Oct. 17, from 3:30 to 5 p.m., with a new location offering more parking and room for more families.
UToledo Health’s Annual Trunk-or-Treat at New Location on Health Science Campus
The fifth annual event returns Saturday, Oct. 17, from 3:30 to 5 p.m., with a new location offering more parking and room for more families.
Why Capital Markets Matter for National Development
The role of capital markets in development is not new. Prosperous societies developed mechanisms that connected savings with enterprise.
WHO releases first global guidelines on child obesity as cases surge
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Nobel Prize in Chemistry Set to Be Awarded in Stockholm
STOCKHOLM (AP) — The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences will award the Nobel Prize in chemistry Wednesday in Stockholm. Last year, three scientists won the Nobel Prize in chemistry for their development of new molecular structures that can trap vast quantities of gas inside, laying the groundwork to ...
BBVA to Co-Chair Climate Finance and Investments Working Group at COP31 Business Forum
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Will Ben Affleck Get Join Politics Now? Animals Actor Has Answered
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Cook and Holmquist, the newest inductees into Nebraska Athletics Hall of Fame
Nebraska volleyball welcomes two new inductees into Husker Athletics Hall of Fame, previous head coach John Cook and former player Amber Holmquist. This pair has paved the way for Husker volleyball and women’s sports as a whole.
HSBC plans sweeping job cuts across UK wealth business in AI push
Bank is consulting with staff on reductions in roles affecting managers, specialists and financial advisers
EuroLeague teams reportedly reject initial offer to merge with NBA Europe: 'It didn't sit well'
Sleep, appetite, gene-editing experts contend for Nobel chemistry prize
Molecules that regulate sleep and appetite or methods for editing genes are some of the research fields commentators say could be contenders for the Nobel Prize in Chemistry announced Wednesday.This y...
Multiple juveniles arrested after assaults on nurses, Chandler officers at behavioral health facility
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Plessinger Signs With Triumph For Supercross And Motocross
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CATIE | Canadian study links cardiovascular disease to declining brain health
As the population of people with HIV ages, researchers studied cognitive health changes; 46% of study participants were cognitively declining, with cardiovascular health playing a role.
How combining science and community knowledge could shape coral reef conservation in Indonesia
Coral reefs in Indonesia’s Spermonde Archipelago are under pressure from both natural and anthropogenic activities. Researchers from Hasanuddin University assessed reef conditions across three islands using underwater photography and drone surveys, while also gathering local perspectives on reef conditions and restoration. They found greater live coral cover in clearer waters but limited community readiness to participate in conservation efforts, suggesting that training and institutional support could strengthen local communities’ role in protecting these natural treasures.
Leaked GameStop Memo Calls $1,399.99 Used PS5 Pro Pricing "Intentional"
GameStop is now reportedly asking $1,399.99 for a pre-owned PlayStation 5 Pro, which is $500 more than Sony's $899.99 list price for a new one. Consoles with the disc drive attached go for $1,499.99, and GameStop Pro members apparently get the base unit for $1,329.99. An internal memo shared on...
Spurs Finally Agree With Fans On Something That's Plainly Obvious
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Trump Journeys to Where He Is Still Popular
Usually presidents hold rallies to get voters excited about an upcoming election. Last night in Nebraska, the roles felt reversed.
Small Business Insider: Policy Update, Tips & Intelligence, More - Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council
SMALL BUSINESS INSIDER NEW REPORT: Bayh-Dole Is an American Innovation and Entrepreneurship Success Story POLICY & LEGISLATIVE UPDATE ● SBE Council Files Comments on FTC’s “Personalized Pricing” Proposal ● SBE Council Supports FCC Action to Modernize Permitting and Accelerate Digital Infrastructure ● Comments Filed with SEC in Favor of Raising the Regulation Crowdfunding Offering Limit […]
Hollywood icon Eva Marie Saint dies at 102
Eva Marie Saint, the Oscar-winning actress known for her roles in ‘On the Waterfront’ and ‘North by Northwest,’ has died at 102.
Oct. 13 Science on Tap: Printing Progress
Join us to discuss how NH has played a role in the evolution of high-tech printing and related technologies.
Exclusive: Bradford Health Services Taps First-Ever President
Alabama-based addiction treatment provider Bradford Health Services named Jason Langley as its inaugural president in a newly created role. Langley
Exclusive: Bradford Health Services Taps First-Ever President
Alabama-based addiction treatment provider Bradford Health Services named Jason Langley as its inaugural president in a newly created role. Langley
SUN: Orioles make layoffs within business ops ahead of expected MLB lockout
The Orioles laid off multiple employees from their business operations department Tuesday, according to an internal memo obtained by The Baltimore Sun that pres
ASU's Marcus Arroyo to return to play-calling role
Arroyo spent all of ASU's 2024 season and the 2025 regular season calling plays before Dillingham took over for the Sun Bowl.
Orioles make layoffs within business ops ahead of expected MLB lockout
The Orioles made cuts to their business operations staff Tuesday, just over a week after their 2026 season ended.
Marquette professor collaborates on Antarctic research honored with 2026 Nobel Prize
Dr. Karen Andeen conducted neutrino research in a Nobel Prize-winning laboratory located at the South Pole.
Milton business fined for oil spill into Lamoille River
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By Antonio Martins (Outras Palavras) Defeats become deeper and more prolonged when we misunderstand what caused them, avoid correcting course, and embrace “solutions” that only compound our mistakes. Lula’s government and the Brazilian left suffered a disaster in Sunday’s election. Contrary to every poll, the president finished the first round 2.2 million votes behind Flávio Bolsonaro—and, more significantly, 3.4 million votes below his total four years ago, when the machinery of the state was working against him and in favor of his opponent. His vote share declined in 98 percent of Brazil’s municipalities. The PL, the main party of the far right, elected 121 deputies and 28 senators, becoming the largest caucus in both houses of Congress. The parties aligned with the Centrão—Brazil’s bloc of transactional center-right parties—were somewhat diminished, but will still hold roughly 250 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 35 in the Senate. That will make it easier to assemble the majorities needed to amend the Constitution or impeach Supreme Federal Court justices. If elected, Flávio Bolsonaro could appoint four members of the Court, substantially altering its internal balance of power. What produced these results? How can the far right be prevented from consolidating them into a prolonged political hegemony? And what is the essential change of direction the left now needs? Explaining the Disaster Across the commercial media and the exuberant chaos of digital platforms, interpretations are multiplying. Some focus on specific episodes: Lula’s absence from the Globo debate, his very close relationship with Alexandre de Moraes, or his emphasis on issues supposedly remote from most people’s everyday concerns, such as rare earth minerals. Among the more systemic interpretations, three seem especially questionable. One argues that the principal defeat was not the left’s, since its congressional representation declined only slightly. The decisive movement captured at the ballot box, according to this view, was a shift within the right itself—from the more moderate and transactional forces of the Centrão toward the more ideological and radicalized forces of the PL and Novo. A second interpretation holds that the nature of electoral and political processes has changed. The material interests and aspirations of society, it argues, no longer play the central role they once did; they have given way to forms of subjective self-identification that the left has yet to understand. And a third concludes that, because of these two developments, we should expect a political winter: a prolonged period in which the far right and the broader right dominate Brazilian political life. There are important elements in all three interpretations. The problem lies in what they deny or leave out: Lula’s third government was a small-bore government. It offered the majorities that elected it neither a clearly better life nor reasons to believe again in politics and its power to transform society. These failures flowed from two fatal accommodations, which I will examine below. As a result, the government suffered a slow but steady erosion of support. And, as has happened in so many Western countries, it gave the far right the opportunity to present itself as anti-system and to benefit from popular frustration and distress. The interpretation that emphasizes the migration of votes from the center-right and traditional right toward the far right has been advanced, among others, by the courageous journalist Leonardo Sakamoto. In his UOL column on Monday, October 5, he highlights the miserable behavior of the traditional conservative parties. Over the past four years, they repeatedly joined forces with the “neo”-fascists, helping to “normalize” them—a criticism that could equally be directed at almost the entire corporate media. Believing they could use the far right as a stepping stone, they instead ended up partly devoured by it. This was especially true in the Senate, where the PL’s gain of 13 senators and Novo’s gain of two came at the expense of the PSD, which lost nine; the MDB, which lost two; the PSDB, which lost two; and the PP, which lost one. Sakamoto’s observation is accurate and necessary, but it leaves uncomfortable questions unanswered. Why did the erosion of the Centrão benefit the far right rather than, for example, producing growth for the left—as has happened so many times before, both in Brazil and elsewhere? The answer is not difficult. Throughout its four years in office, Lula’s third government was almost invariably associated with the Centrão. Here lies its first accommodation: accepting the limits imposed by conservative institutions; avoiding, as much as possible, any attempt to strain those limits through popular pressure; and believing only in the modest changes that could be squeezed through openings in Congress. The failure of the campaign to end the six-day workweek is emblematic. Lula could have electrified the presidential race by pairing it with a popular campaign for passage of the measure. Instead, he chose to place his hopes in the hands of Senate president Rodrigo Alcolumbre. He generated no mass mobilization, did not force his opponents onto an uncomfortable defensive, and won no victory. In September 2025, the government squandered the greatest of its many opportunities to shake up conservative power in Congress. Popular opposition to the so-called Shielding Amendment—which, if approved, would have restricted criminal proceedings against members of Congress—brought crowds into the streets, mobilized primarily by artists and social movements. This opened the possibility for a broader political education: a campaign that could begin exposing the limits and dysfunctions of Brazil’s political system while putting Bolsonaro’s movement on the defensive for its predictable support of political privilege. The amendment was defeated. But the executive branch then backed away from the fight. It remained associated with an institutional world widely seen as corrupt, elitist, and indifferent to ordinary people’s struggles. In doing so, it forfeited its credibility as a vehicle for the protest vote. On Sunday, it reaped the bitter fruits. Are We Doomed? Taking a different approach from Sakamoto, the philosopher Moysés Pinto Neto and other writers have drawn attention, in their first analyses of October 4, to the fragmentation of the public sphere produced by Big Tech platforms. Through their algorithms, these platforms present each person with a different view of social reality. As a consequence, it becomes much harder to identify common material problems and demands—for example, the fight for labor rights or for a properly funded public health system. Voters no longer embrace such demands, these authors argue, because they no longer see themselves as part of a collective. Instead, they tend to value the identities assigned to them by neoliberal subjectivity—the role of the entrepreneur, for example. On this interpretation, the left’s possible error lies in clinging to outdated illusions. Moysés’s warning is highly relevant and resonates with arguments such as Naomi Klein and Astra Taylor’s “Apocalyptic Fascism and the Billionaires’ Bet.” Unlike a century ago, the far right no longer promises a radiant future. It concentrates instead on resentment—especially that of young men. “They belong to a generation that fears it may never own a home, but compensates with the pleasure it gets from constantly provoking progressives online. Convinced their future has been stolen, they share memes romanticizing historical authoritarian regimes,” the authors write. But Moysés seems to confuse this danger with inevitability. He fails to see that the left’s answer cannot be adaptation. On the contrary, it must strengthen the possibility of politics as collective action. Nor does he recognize that precisely such a reversal is already becoming possible in some of the most promising mobilizations of the twenty-first century: the election, at the end of 2025, of the young Muslim Zohran Mamdani as mayor of New York, on a platform centered on the intensely material fight for an affordable city; the Left Party’s victory in Berlin two weeks ago, built around the demand to expropriate private real-estate corporations; and the very recent wave of demonstrations in Spain—including an occupation of Madrid’s Puerta del Sol—in which tens of thousands of young people mobilized by the Tenants’ Union have demanded limits on rents. By putting itself in the straitjacket of the “fiscal framework” in the first months of 2022, Lula’s third government adopted the second fatal accommodation of its term. Faced with conservative institutions and a country devastated by four years of Bolsonaro, increased public investment was the government’s remaining weapon for offering a more dignified life to the majority and forging an anti-conservative pact with them. The same state that disburses 1 trillion reais a year to enrich a small class of rentiers could instead spend money to extend the Family Health Strategy to every Brazilian, at a cost of 30 billion reais; provide full-day public schooling and childcare to all adolescents and children—and, especially, relief to their mothers; achieve universal sanitation while cleaning up polluted urban rivers; multiply metro systems; begin transforming the urban peripheries; and undertake many other urgently needed projects. In April 2023, an article in Outras Palavras warned that the fiscal framework could “shrink the Lula government and preserve the forces that condemn the country to inequality and regression.” A year later, another article showed that restraints on public spending were strangling policies vital to ordinary people and undermining the president’s popularity. In November 2024 came a reality check, in the form of the government’s humiliating defeat in the municipal elections. Even then, the fiscal lock was neither removed nor loosened. On the contrary: throughout the government’s four years, fiscal restraint remained central to its political narrative. The administration proudly proclaimed that it had “put the state’s accounts in order,” without grasping either how misleading that phrase was—given the payment of 1 trillion reais in interest—or how badly the message was hurting it politically. Lula finally woke up in September 2026. The increase in Bolsa Família benefits, after four years of being frozen; the announcement that anti-obesity drugs would be offered through Brazil’s public health system; and the ban on online betting showed that the state has the power to act decisively on behalf of the majority when those in government are willing to confront obstacles. The huge marches that closed the campaign in Fortaleza, Salvador, Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo on the eve of October 4 showed how such initiatives can mobilize activists and the broader public. But it was too late—and too little to change the outcome of the first round. History has not ended The possibility of a turnaround in the three weeks leading up to November 25 cannot be ruled out. It will not be simple or easy. Lula must not only make up a deficit of 2.2 million votes; he must also offset the movement of voters who backed other right-wing candidates in the first round, most of whom are likely to move toward Flávio Bolsonaro. Pulling that off will require a broad, grassroots effort to win over voters, potentially reinforced by new initiatives from Lula. The coming hours and days will be decisive. If Bolsonaro’s movement also wins the presidency, the result will create a high-risk situation for Brazilian sovereignty and democracy. The enormous challenges posed by such an outcome would require the left to reexamine, in depth and with a genuine willingness to engage in self-criticism, its political projects—or its lack of them—and its practices. But would that mean we are condemned to the long winter of far-right hegemony that some analyses are beginning to forecast? It is far too early to say, suggests a recent text by Álvaro García Linera, the thinker who served as vice president of Bolivia under Evo Morales. His central hypothesis is that this political current will prove short-lived. At a moment when the entire world is once again talking about sovereignty and protecting national economies, the far right offers a stale, recolonizing neoliberalism. Its submission to the United States is as blatant and pathetic as Flávio and Eduardo Bolsonaro’s overtures to Donald Trump. Its project amounts to something like every man for himself: greater inequality, capitalism without limits, devastation, and supremacism. Will it work? In the United States, just two years into his second term, Trump himself is reaching record levels of unpopularity and may be on the verge of losing Republican control of both the House and Senate in November. Every new beginning is difficult. Whatever the outcome of the second round, the defeats of October 4 show how profoundly the Brazilian left will have to rethink and rebuild. But just as it would be foolish to underestimate the seriousness of its mistakes, it would be equally foolish to conclude that rebuilding a political project is no longer possible. History has not ended. The times are moving faster than ever. Originally published in Portuguese by Outras Palavras. English translation by Eric Blanc; I’ve added the subtitles. More We can’t stop the far right at home or abroad without a revitalized labor movement, which is yet another reason why you should become a sustaining supporter of the Emergency Workplace Organizing Committee (EWOC) — one of US labor’s pivotal bright spots. Relatedly, Jacobin published a short piece of mine reflecting on a decade of Bernie Sanders inspiring a whole new generation of young worker organizers.
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