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Scientists have found 9 new sea sponge species in Alaska
Two studies published this summer describe the new species, which were found in the Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Islands.
The Quantified Scientist tests the Apple Watch Series 12’s heart rate sensor
In a new video, The Quantified Scientist’s Rob ter Horst compares the new Apple Watch Series 12’s heart rate sensor against a Polar H10 ECG chest strap.
West African scientists warn of weakening health systems and urge stronger outbreak detection
LOME, Togo (AP) — West African laboratory scientists called on governments Friday to strengthen capacity to detect disease outbreaks to avoid another major outbreak, saying health systems across the region are becoming weaker.
Scientists warn of weakening health systems and urge stronger outbreak detection
West African laboratory scientists are urging governments to strengthen their capacity to detect disease outbreaks to prevent another major crisis
Scientists warn of weakening health systems and urge stronger outbreak detection
West African laboratory scientists are urging governments to strengthen their capacity to detect disease outbreaks to prevent another major crisis
Scientists hope deeper-rooted soybeans can withstand climate extremes and store more carbon
Research scientist Ashish Rajurkar kneels in the dirt, lifting a large clod of soil tangled around a soybean plant. He knocks away pieces of earth from the plant's roots, which slope straight down instead ...
'An unworldly experience.' Why scientists flew into firestorm clouds this wildfire season
As wildfires grow bigger and hotter in many parts of the world, researchers have embarked on an airborne mission to learn more about the severe storm clouds that sometimes form over the most intense blazes.
Africa Laboratory Scientists
A specialist examines a culture plate inside a laboratory at a hospital during a regional congress focused on strengthening laboratory capacity and preparedness following lessons from Ebola and COVID-19, in
To read 2,000-year-old burned scrolls, scientists burn their own
Douglas Seiler painstakingly sourced papyrus and reed pens from Egypt and traditional lampblack ink from Japan, then paid some high school students to inscribe the papyrus with lines from Star Wars and ...
NASA spacecraft discovers a huge new crater on the moon
Scientists have discovered a crater on the moon that's bigger than the Roman Colosseum, the result of a powerful impact two years ago.
I Toured the Company Mapping Space Debris. Then I Polled Worried and Hopeful Scientists
From portable radars in shipping containers to orbital cameras, I asked scientists how the space-junk tracking industry plans to avoid catastrophic crashes.
Scientists Identify First New Wild Cat Species in a Century
Tiny spotted feline lives in Bolivia's rapidly vanishing cloud forests
Will the U.S. megadrought ever end?
For 27 years, the Southwest has been gripped by a historic drought. Scientists think it might be here to stay.
ResearchHub: An Answer to “Dysfunction” in Traditional Science Giving?
The platform, cofounded by cryptocurrency billionaire and philanthropy critic Brian Armstrong, aims to eliminate counterproductive incentives that scientists face in traditional grant seeking.
Scientists hope deeper-rooted soybeans can withstand climate extremes and store more carbon
During droughts, they hope the roots will allow plants to access water below the top layer of soil.
Sleep Divorce vs. Sharing a Bed: Here’s What Scientists Found About Your Sleep Health
Is sleeping apart from your partner actually good for your relationship? Here are the ins and outs of the sleep divorce trend.
Scientists discover metabolite fueling aggressive brain tumor growth
Virtually all high-grade, aggressive gliomas in adults accumulate massive amounts of a metabolite called guanidinoacetate (GAA) that overstimulates nearby neurons and promotes tumor growth, according to new research from scientists at Children’s Medical Center Research Institute at UT Southwestern (CRI) published in Cell.
A research station has begun drifting with Arctic sea ice. Here’s why scientists put it there.
By Lee Karp-BossProfessor, School of Marine Sciences, University of Maine A new research station has begun drifting with sea ice in the high Arctic, marking the start of an ambitious international effort to study one of the fastest-changing and least-understood regions on Earth. On Sept. 9, Tara Polar Station reached…
Scientists hope deeper-rooted soybeans can withstand climate extremes and store more carbon
CHAMPAIGN, Ill. (AP) — Research scientist Ashish Rajurkar kneels in the dirt, lifting a large clod of soil tangled around a soybean plant. He knocks away pieces of earth from the plant's roots, which slope straight down instead of out to the side like typical soybean plants.
Scientists hope deeper-rooted soybeans can withstand climate extremes and store more carbon
For years, scientists have explored ways to remove carbon from the atmosphere, including through direct air capture, changes to ocean chemistry so seawater can absorb more carbon and reforestation.
Scientists hope deeper-rooted soybeans can withstand climate extremes and store more carbon
For years, scientists have explored ways to remove carbon from the atmosphere, including through direct air capture, changes to ocean chemistry so seawater can absorb more carbon and reforestation. Now,
Scientists hope deeper-rooted soybeans can withstand climate extremes and store more carbon
For years, scientists have explored ways to remove carbon from the atmosphere, including through direct air capture, changes to ocean chemistry so seawater can absorb more carbon and reforestation.
Scientists hope deeper-rooted soybeans can withstand climate extremes and store more carbon
For years, scientists have explored ways to remove carbon from the atmosphere, including through direct air capture, changes to ocean chemistry so seawater can absorb more carbon and reforestation
Scientists Study Whether Humans Could Reproduce In Space
As plans for long-term missions to the Moon and Mars move forward, scientists are studying whether humans reproduce beyond Earth.
There Are 1,260 Genes That May Be Controlling the Outcome of Your Life, Scientists Say
These genetic variants aren’t a crystal ball, but they can predict personality traits and potential life outcomes.
Chinese Scientists Say They've Detected A Quantum State Inside Living Cells
Quantum physics may help power living cells.
Scientists warn on immunity as Europe's kids get fewer jabs
Childhood vaccination rates in Europe have stalled, a study says. The drop in vaccination rates signals increasing risks to individual and herd immunity, researchers warn following a new study.
Scientists just named a new snake after Guns N’ Roses legend Slash
A newly discovered snake from New Guinea has been named after Guns N’ Roses guitarist Slash, who has loved reptiles since childhood. Genetic testing and physical differences confirmed that the reddish-brown groundsnake, Lielaphis slashi, is a species scientists had never formally recognized before. The nonvenomous snake may use large rear teeth to catch slippery lizards and reptile eggs.
Scientists discover cells that cheat death and rebuild damaged tissue
Scientists discovered a population of cells that can start the process of programmed cell death, survive it, and then help rapidly rebuild damaged tissue. Their descendants become far more resistant to future damage, revealing a mechanism that could improve healing but may also help cancers return after treatment.
Scientists develop a way to restore aging EV batteries without breaking them down into raw materials
The work focuses on a common problem in aging lithium-ion batteries: buildup on the electrodes. As batteries are charged and discharged, a layer known as the solid...
Scientists Create Stronger Concrete That Absorbs CO2 From the Air
Concrete usually adds to the world’s carbon burden, but a new formula absorbed CO2 while becoming stronger than a conventional mix. Researchers at Mepco Schlenk Engineering College in India developed the concrete by combining two naturally derived materials: porous zeolite and bamboo biochar. Tests described in Carbon Research suggest the blend could give infrastructure a
Scientists Have Uncovered Previously Hidden Microbial Activity on Human Skin
The most abundant microbes on your skin may not be the ones doing most of the work. Human skin supports vast communities of bacteria, fungi, and viruses that can influence its protective barrier, immune defenses, and overall health. Yet simply cataloging these organisms cannot reveal which ones are active, how they respond to their surroundings,
Bolivia: New cat species discovered by scientists
Genetic data confirmed that the small feline, called "tilcayo" by locals, is a new species of cat. It's the first such discovery in more than 100 years.
NASA Telescope Helps Scientists Find a New Type of X-ray Object
The discovery of “hypersoft” X-ray beacons could help solve some mysteries about the universe.
The Cambridge Science Park workers who don't need a lab coat
A gym boss and a "soldering genius" are among the non-scientists working at the park.
How Do Scientists Decorate Their Lab Space?
From cherished keepsakes to unexpected collectibles, researchers share the décor that brings personality to their laboratory and workspaces.
Scientists overhaul giant particle collider in search of universe’s hidden building blocks
The European Organization for Nuclear Research, or CERN, will dismantle the Large Hadron Collider, which helped discover the so-called God Particle, in order to build a more powerful particle accelerator.
Scientists trace half the DNA in Xinjiang’s oldest tombs to Yellow River farmers
Study of Bronze Age remains uncovers a population with roots in both Yellow River farmers and Eurasian steppe groups.
WECT NEWS NOW: Bald Head Island Conservancy lands $424K federal grant to train next generation of scientists
Representatives from the Bald Head Island Conservancy joined Randy Aldridge on WECT News Now to discuss the $424,582 grant recently awarded to the organization.
El Niño-driven Kelvin wave could raise Bay Area sea levels by up to 1 foot, scientists say
A little-known ocean phenomenon linked to El Niño is making its way toward California and could raise Bay Area sea levels by as much as a foot this fall, increasing the risk of coastal flooding across the region. Here's what to know about Kelvin waves.
Scientists are about to test Einstein’s gravity with exotic matter
Scientists have found a new way to create a controlled beam of muonium, an exotic atom containing a heavier cousin of the electron. The advance could allow researchers to test for the first time whether gravity acts on second-generation particles exactly as Einstein’s theory predicts. Any unexpected difference would be a major surprise and could potentially point toward new physics, including a hypothetical fifth force.
STScI Scientists Part of Collaboration Receiving 2027 Berkeley Prize
Scientists from the Space Telescope Science Institute (STScI) are members of the collaboration that has been awarded the 2027 Lancelot M. Berkeley–New York Community Trust Prize for Meritorious Work in Astronomy as part of their work with the UNCOVER project.
T. rex had a body temperature similar to our own, study finds
Using fossilized teeth, scientists have finally taken the T. rex's temperature — and it wasn't too different from our own.
HAMAQ
HAMAQ will improve how scientists observe and forecast air quality in major metropolitan regions.
Firstborns tend to do better in life. The reason has surprised scientists.
Being born second (or third or fourth) can cost you — literally. For decades, scientists have been asking why younger siblings get less education, have worse mental health and earn less, on average, than firstborns. Thanks to the records of 1.2 million Danish children, they finally have an answer.
Understanding the world, from the Cold War to the age of AI
For 75 years, the MIT Center for International Studies has brought together social scientists, engineers, and practitioners to understand global change, shape public debate, and address generational challenges.
Hidden Megacities Discovered Beneath Amazon Jungle: Scientists Stunned by Scale - Futura-Sciences
Millennia-Old Urban Networks Revealed by Modern Science It turns out, the Amazon wasn’t always the wild jungle we picture today. Between around 600 BCE and 850 CE, a civilization known as the Aquiry dramatically transformed large parts of the southwestern Amazon Basin. These people dug colossal ditches and geometric earthworks,...
This million-year-old 'baby planet' is the youngest world scientists have ever discovered
Astronomers have confirmed a large exoplanet is forming in the cloud of debris around a young star. At less than a million years old, it's the youngest exoplanet found so far.
The Next Gene-Editing Technology May Also Be the Oldest
Scientists have discovered a powerful gene-targeting system in viruses. Billions of years old, VIPR seems to predate CRISPR and may be even more powerful.
HHS Seeks Public Input on Electromagnetic Fields and Wireless Radiation
HHS issued a Request for Information (RFI) calling on Americans, scientists, physicians, industry, and public health experts to submit evidence and information on the potential health effects of electromagnetic fields.
NASA satellite discovers a new crater on the moon
Scientists have discovered a crater on the moon that's bigger than the Roman Colosseum and is the result of a powerful impact two years ago that initially went undetected.
New funding boosts data archive that tracks healthy aging environments
With an $11 million award from the National Institute on Aging, University of Michigan researchers will build and share national data that track how neighborhood conditions change over time, helping scientists study how local environments affect older adults' health.
Behind the Science: Reprogramming Resistance to Prostate Cancer Treatment
Prostate cancer is one of the most common – and most lethal – cancers in men. In the United States alone, nearly 300,000 new cases are diagnosed each year, and it remains the second-leading cause of cancer death among men.
The Quantum Theory of You
For decades, the theory was dismissed. Groundbreaking new research is forcing scientists to take a second look.
Scientists name a new cat species for the first time in over a century
The South American tiger cat is not one species but five distinct species, a new study finds.
Where disciplines meet: UTulsa scientists, conservators unlock secrets of centuries-old manuscripts
UTulsa and Gilcrease Museum researchers use Raman microscopy to analyze pigments in 16th-century Indigenous Mexican manuscripts, uncovering historical and scientific insights while preserving cultural heritage.
The T. rex had a body temperature similar to our own, study finds
Using fossilized teeth, scientists have finally taken the T. rex’s temperature — and it wasn’t too different from our own.
The T. rex had a body temperature similar to our own, study finds
Using fossilized teeth, scientists have finally taken the T. rex’s temperature — and it wasn’t too different from our own.
Chubb Announces Leadership Appointments to Digital Business Organization
/PRNewswire/ -- Following Sean Ringsted's appointment as Chief Scientist and Executive Vice President, Chubb Group, Chubb Limited (NYSE: CB) today announced...
Scientists Found Tiny Ancient Arrowheads Where Humans Weren’t Supposed to Be
They weigh just grams—yet they show that modern humans reached Eurasia 35,000 years earlier than previously thought.
Cities won’t survive on the moon as there isn’t enough water, scientists say
If, like Elon Musk, you have been dreaming of a future in which large populations of humans can live on the moon, you’re likely to be disappointed.
Robotic lab sets up and runs optics experiments on demand
The process of building and running an optics experiment to analyze a material’s properties could one day be fully automated, MIT scientists say. Taking a step toward such a future, they developed a reconfigurable, robotic optics laboratory.
Can researchers trust that AI models won’t leak their ideas?
Research funders are asking how they can stop confidential scientific ideas in grant proposals from leaking out through large language models (LLMs), for example if reviewers use AI to help them judge applications. Last week, a row erupted in mathematics after OpenAI announced it had solved a notoriously difficult problem, only for another mathematician to demand answers over whether the company had used ideas he had fed into its models. The spat, and the broader issue of idea leakage through AI models, was discussed by funders at an R&D policy conference held in Paris on September 14. At worst, it threatens to undermine the correct attribution of breakthroughs, one of the foundations of modern science. The mathematics dispute around OpenAI is “certainly something we're looking at” Jason Gallo, head of the newly established Office of Metascience at the US National Science Foundation (NSF), told the Blue Sky Forum, hosted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The controversy started on September 8, when OpenAI announced it had cracked a mathematical problem that had gone unsolved for 90 years. Using a swarm of AI agents, millions of dollars’ worth of computing power and a new internal model, the company said it had finally proved that a long-used formula for modelling fluid dynamics breaks down under certain conditions. However, Tristan Buckmaster, a New York University mathematician who had been independently working with collaborators on the same problem using OpenAI’s Codex tool, hit back with a statement questioning whether the company had snooped on his Codex sessions to gain an advantage. OpenAI has always denied it looked up the “specific user data” of Buckmaster and colleagues. However, the company initially admitted that “while unlikely, we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models,” although its proofs “differ significantly” from Buckmaster’s. The firm later said that, following an investigation, it concluded that Buckmaster’s Codex prompts “could not have influenced the [OpenAI] system in any way, including through training.”Funder concernYet OpenAI’s initial admission that its model might have ingested Buckmaster’s ideas, then spat them out to its own mathematicians, has scientistsworriedthat their work could leak out if shared with AI. Some AI tools give users an opt-out option to stop their sessions from training the model. If such guarantees can be trusted, this gives scientists some confidence they can use an LLM to develop an idea without the risk of it leaking out.But there’s a bigger potential vulnerability. To win money to investigate ideas, scientists have to share them with funding bodies. These grant proposals are normally kept strictly confidential, to prevent other scientists from scooping them, or to protect commercially valuable intellectual property. To preserve this confidentiality, when the NSF uses AI models, “we have to be sure that it's not making server calls out to an external party, leaking that data,” said Gallo to delegates in Paris. Leaks through reviewersHowever, funders normally use external academic reviewers to assess proposals. And there are growing worries that these reviewers are feeding grant ideas into AI models to help them make a judgement. Research funders have noticed that peer review reports and funding recommendations have “suddenly become much longer, more detailed and complex,” said Diogo Machado, head of the data science unit at Technopolis, a science and technology-focused consultancy. “The sense is that reviewers are increasingly using generative AI in their review work, even where guidelines sometimes forbid it,” he told Science|Business. “This is very difficult for funders to control or prove.” Happening at scaleThis sharing of confidential proposals with AI models is “happening at scale already,” said James Wilson, executive director of the Research on Research Institute, based at University College London, during the debate in Paris. In response, Gallo said the NSF had “strict guidance” around the uploading of proposals to AI models. But he added the NSF was mulling new types of assessment to make sure applicants were truly the originators of their ideas, such as following a short-form proposal with an oral presentation, which would allow the foundation to “really interrogate the investigator on their intellectual contribution.” Related articlesHow can Europe cope with a flood of AI-assisted research grant proposals?The risks and benefits of AI in screening research grant proposals Viewpoint: AI could make scientific overload worse“For us as funders, a lot of the ways to ensure that the application remains the applicant's own intellectual contribution, those ways are quite regressive,” Peter Clifford, head of strategy at Research Ireland, told delegates. “They're maybe ten or 15 or 20 years old, and they don't scale particularly well.” Disputes over the origin of ideas are as old as modern science. Isaac Newton and Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz spent more than a decade arguing over who invented calculus, for example. And long before LLMs emerged, academics would agonise over how much of their early work to reveal at conferences, in case their colleagues scooped them, Jack Leahy, a senior metascience advisor to the UK government, told delegates. But AI was “accelerating” the “problems of the system,” he said.
Scientists discover a mysterious new frog hiding in the Amazon
Scientists discovered a new frog species in the flooded forests of the western Amazon, distinguishing it from nearly identical relatives through DNA and its unique call. Adenomera varcena highlights how much Amazonian biodiversity remains hidden even as habitat loss and climate change threaten these poorly understood species.
Exploring the ocean depths: FIU scientists descend to world’s deepest hydrothermal vents
An FIU research team recently returned from a month-long expedition in the Caribbean where they explored how shrimp find their way to this extreme environment without sight.
Scientists Turned Ordinary Shiitake Mushrooms into Living Computers
Your next computer might grow in a compost heap.
Scientists Finally Figured Out How Much Groundwater There Is Under the US and It Is Enough to Fill the Great Lakes 13 Times Over
Researchers used 1 million data points and a machine learning algorithm to estimate groundwater stores with higher resolution than ever before.
Virtual launch: New report on ethics oversight of AI-related health research
WHO will host a virtual launch of its new report, Artificial Intelligence-related Health Research: Ethics Review and Oversight, which provides practical recommendations for researchers, ethics committees, regulators, funders and policy-makers on the responsible conduct of AI-enabled health research.
Virtual launch: New report on ethics oversight of AI-related health research
WHO will host a virtual launch of its new report, Artificial Intelligence-related Health Research: Ethics Review and Oversight, which provides practical recommendations for researchers, ethics committees, regulators, funders and policy-makers on the responsible conduct of AI-enabled health research.
‘Very messy eaters’: scientists solve the mystery of when black holes ‘burp’
The astronomical bodies fire off powerful jets in two distinct phases in their feeding cycle, researchers discover
Scientists Overhaul Giant Particle Collider in Search of Universe’s Hidden Building Blocks
The European Organization for Nuclear Research, or CERN, will dismantle the Large Hadron Collider, which helped discover the so-called God Particle, in order to build a more powerful particle accelerator.
Whales Have Rebounded in the Southern Ocean. Scientists Worry Commercial Fishing Could Threaten Their Comeback.
Researchers are calling for stricter regulations on krill fishing in Antarctica as climate change shrinks the habitat of whales’ primary prey.
Feel Like Time Is Speeding Up? Scientists Have Figured Out Why—and What to Do About It
Experts are beginning to unravel why modern life messes with our time perception, making you feel like life is passing in a blur.
Scientists have found 40,000 asteroids that could hit Earth. But it's just the tip of the iceberg | BBC Sky at Night Magazine
Scientists have found 40,000 near-Earth asteroids, providing greater insight into the potential threat to Earth from space.
Scientists push for fungi protection
A global movement to recognise fungi is gaining momentum ahead of UN biodiversity talks at COP17.
NASA’s New Horizons spots signs of liquid nitrogen flowing on Pluto
Scientists have found the first evidence that liquid may have flowed across Pluto’s surface in the recent past. Dark features on the enormous Sputnik Planitia glacier appear consistent with liquid nitrogen rising through cracks from deep beneath the ice. Computer models show that nitrogen could melt at the glacier’s base and travel upward like fluid through small conduits. The finding reveals that Pluto may be much more geologically active than its frozen appearance suggests.
Training tomorrow’s citizen scientists in introductory science courses
Faculty who teach large introductory STEM courses often experience burnout, writes Michael Evans. Thinking of yourself as a trainer of citizen scientists and seeing your field in the world around you can help keep teaching fresh
A Vocation Discovered: Dwayne Simmons’ Journey to Becoming a Renowned Neuroscientist
Since earning his bachelor’s degree from Pepperdine University, Dwayne Simmons has forged a career as an esteemed neuroscience professor, researcher, and newly inducted fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). In looking back on his accomplished vocational journey, the neuroscience considers his undergraduate education in Malibu to be the key that unlocked his potential.
All Roads Did Not Lead to Rome. Scientists Mapped 186,000 Miles of Roman Roads and Found a Problem With the Phrase
The empire’s 300,000-kilometer road network was stranger and less Rome-centered than legend suggests.
Climate crisis likely behind devastating Nepal-Tibet floods that killed more than 1,300, first study finds
Scientists say global heating was a destabilising factor in collapse of 200,000 sq metre glacier in August
Scientists challenge US NIH grant screening as unconstitutional
A group of scientists filed a class-action lawsuit on Wednesday against the U.S. National Institutes of Health, alleging the agency is unconstitutionally screening research grants to suppress viewpoints the Trump administration disfavors on topics like diversity, gender identity and climate change.
Scientists Challenge US NIH Grant Screening as Unconstitutional
By Ahmed Aboulenein WASHINGTON, Sept 16 (Reuters) - A group of scientists filed a class-action lawsuit on Wednesday against the U.S. National Institutes of Health, alleging the agency is unconstitutionally screening research grants to suppress viewpoints the Trump administration disfavors on ...
Scientists Grew Human Brain Tissue Inside Mice and It Actually Worked
The transplanted cells formed circuits, reached the spinal cord and responded to injury.
'Momnesia' is real—scientists find a biological explanation for temporary forgetfulness during pregnancy
Many women say the same thing during pregnancy: They walk into a room and forget why, misplace their keys or struggle to follow a conversation. This phenomenon, often called "pregnancy brain" or "momnesia," ...
Most Humans Can See 10 Million Colors. Cal Scientists Found One More.
We talk to Austin Roorda and Ren Ng, the scientists behind the color science, and Galchen.
What Does the Science of Climate Change Really Look Like?
Editor’s Note: This is the second in a three-part series on how the Right should think about environmental and climate policy. Read Chris Barnard on Reclaiming Environmental Policy from the Left. More than a decade ago, the world’s governments negotiated and signed the Paris Climate Agreement, committing to hold global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius. In the following years, climate had immense cultural power. Greta Thunberg emerged. Fortune 500 companies established net-zero plans. The U.S. got the Inflation Reduction Act. Then the pendulum swung back. President Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office, speaking of green energy as a “scam” and carbon footprints as a “hoax” and on all matters of international policy emphasizing bilateral engagement and power over globalism and cooperation. The technology companies that had been at the forefront of net-zero pledges and green leadership discovered the importance of all-of-the-above power to their visions for artificial intelligence and began quietly postponing or removing their targets. On the left side of the political spectrum, rising concerns about inflation and cost pushed climate lower down in the stated priorities of voters and stump speeches of politicians. The moment is ripe for a reset on the politics of climate change and for conservatives especially to chart a course that acknowledges and addresses the real challenges in plausible ways. So what should we think about climate change as we enter a post-peak climate era? If it is neither an apocalypse nor a hoax, what will hold up as a durable view of climate change? And how does it project onto the concerns and priorities of the right-of-center’s emerging coalition? New to Commonplace_? Subscribe below to get the magazine in your inbox._ Subscribe A Solid Foundation As the politics and economics of climate careened over the past ten years, the physics carried on regardless. In 2015, the year the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted, the world emitted 41.2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. By 2025, emissions had risen only 2.4%, to 42.2 gigatonnes, because falling emissions from land use offset increasing emissions from fossil fuels. But slow growth in annual emissions is not rapid decline, let alone net-zero, so carbon dioxide kept accumulating in the atmosphere, going from 399 to 426 parts per million. Global temperature kept rising too, from about 1.1 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 average in 2015, to 1.4 degrees above it in 2025. None of this should surprise anyone. Even most prominent skeptics, like the authors of the 2025 report commissioned by the Trump administration’s Department of Energy, accept the basic physics. Carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere at industrial volumes accumulates and traps heat that would otherwise escape to space. That heat warms the upper ocean and increases temperatures at the surface. Increased ocean heat and melting of land ice cause sea levels to rise. Changes in the climate become noticeable to us as subtle shifts in temperature and precipitation, seasons arriving early or late, changes in the surrounding ecosystem, and weather extremes. The much more meaningful debate is not about whether these things are happening, but about what it all means for human societies. (While it is a proxy measure of overall risk, no one experiences global surface temperature.) This debate invokes at least three interesting questions: how much today’s warming is showing up in regional climate trends, how much more warming we should anticipate, and how extreme weather events can be understood in the context of climate change. Recent scientific advances give us new insights into each of these, but there is still much to learn. This is the context in which the next generation of conservative leaders will be the first to deal with significant climate change as a fact, not a forecast. It will be with them for their entire careers. Our evolving scientific picture of climate change will come from weather and climate records stretching further into the past, new kinds of observations in the present, better modeling tools for the future, and simply more time to observe the emergence of climate signals and their tangible effects on ecosystems and communities in the United States and around the world. The policy landscape will be shaped by not only the impacts of changes in the climate, but also by the ways in which societies respond and by the emergence of new technologies for both altering the trajectory of emissions and adapting to new climate realities. Global climate records now show the fingerprints of warming in different phenomena around much of the world. The IPCC, in its most recent assessment report, documents warming trends over all land regions, even as natural variability adds substantial variance to local trends. And the highest temperature extremes have become more intense and frequent, almost everywhere, since the 1950s. Scientists are highly confident that these changes are attributable to human influence. But confidence in detecting trends and attributing them to human influence degrades across heavy precipitation events; drought trends are heterogeneous and not attributable to human activity with great confidence. For hurricanes, tornadoes, and other severe storms there is even less confidence in trends or their relationship to climate change. In general, a fair summary of the evidence is that for well-observed phenomena, like surface temperature or heavy rainfall, with a clear relationship to warming, our multidecadal observations are consistent with human influence overcoming natural variability over long time periods and extremes increasing. For regions that are sampled more sparsely, or phenomena with a higher noise-to-signal ratio, we will need to observe them longer to understand the magnitude of the climate signal or improve dynamical understanding using models and observations together. But for Climate For those who can’t wait, we also have new techniques that attempt to understand the role climate change has in influencing particular extreme events. When the climate is changing and disaster strikes, it is natural to ask whether that disaster was somehow “caused” by climate change. For scientists and policymakers acting in good faith, answering that question helps develop a more accurate picture of the problem, how it may be getting worse, and what preparations we should be making to respond to it. It may, at some point, give some weight to how liability is assigned by courts or adaptation funding is distributed by society. But how we ask this question is extremely important. It is easy to get the analysis wrong by discounting the role that meteorology plays. As meteorologist Theodore Shepherd explained in a clear 2016 review of climate attribution methods, “if a weather or climate event is truly extreme in the present climate, then perforce it requires unusual meteorological conditions, which means that climate change is at most a contributing factor.” Share Scientists have two ways to probe climate as a contributing factor, both of which have entered media coverage of extreme weather events. One asks a probabilistic question: How much more likely is a particular event (e.g., a temperature record over a particular area) amid global warming? The answer involves using historical records and computer simulations to estimate the likelihood of such an event in both a changed and a preindustrial climate. The findings are less about the specific event, and more about events of that nature. The other question is: How has the changed climate affected the specific event in question? Here, scientists try to understand what a similar event would have looked like in the preindustrial climate. This is sometimes called the storyline approach, where the story is the specific meteorological details of the event. These methods offer ways to test the intuition of scientists about real weather extremes. In late June and early July of 2021, a persistent high-pressure ridge, or heat dome, set up over the Pacific Northwest and an extraordinary heat wave affected the area from Oregon to British Columbia. For six days, it shattered temperature records across the region and hundreds died from heat-related causes, in an area where such high, and persistently high, temperatures were well outside of experience and many live without air conditioning. Scientists have studied its connection to climate change using multiple approaches. This specific event was created by a rare combination of meteorological factors, a strong high-pressure ridge created the conditions for extreme heat, which occurred on top of higher average temperatures in the region from global warming. Probabilistic analyses showed that climate change increased the likelihood of such an event by at least 8-fold to more than 100-fold. One standout example found that such an event had effectively zero probability of occurring in the preindustrial climate. The enormous range in these assessments reflects how hard it is to estimate probabilities of events at the tail of the historical record. Estimates of the effect on the temperature of the event are more clustered. A recent review paper documents how multiple methodologies have found a positive influence, roughly 1-2 degrees Celsius of an anomaly that exceeded 15 degrees, of climate change on the temperature magnitude of the event. Multiple studies have investigated and found some positive influence of climate change in other extreme events. Attribution studies found climate likely increased the heavy rainfall that accompanied Hurricane Helene in North Carolina and surrounding regions in 2024. The extensive fires that struck Los Angeles in 2025 illustrate how the causal chain can become messy, though. Studies do detect a positive influence of climate on the event’s likelihood, but while climate change likely contributed to underlying aridity, it would not have played a role in the heavy winds or land practices that preceded disaster. These event attribution studies will become more common for extreme, or damaging, weather events. They can be produced quickly, and often are reported before peer review. As the Pacific Northwest heatwave example shows, when multiple methods converge on a positive attribution, the finding should probably carry some weight even if you have to be careful about accepting the results from a single study. I expect that as climate change proceeds and the climate thus departs further from a preindustrial counterfactual, the influence will become more detectable across a variety of extreme events and more easily identified. This will be used to cast blame, but can also be used to inform how communities and society adapt to ongoing change. We May Still Be Surprised One positive development, insofar as less climate change is better, has been that our central estimates for future climate change should probably be revised downward. Mostly, that is because the high-end warmings that scientists regularly analyzed about ten to 20 years ago, driven by high emissions throughout the twenty-first century, now appear to be somewhere between unlikely and impossible. At one time, the upper end of mainstream climate projections extended well into 4 to 6 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of this century, which, models suggest, would have wrought enormous real-world damage. Current energy and policy trends now point toward 2.5 or 3 degrees. Damages and risks are commonly modeled as increasing steeply with more warming, so this is already a better-than-previously-expected outcome for the climate (which is independent of the physical response to emissions). But we should maintain a wide range for plausible outcomes and prepare for the possibility of being surprised. Emissions trajectories are subject to deep uncertainty, the physical climate response is still developing, and whatever change occurs in the climate will then be mediated through unpredictable economic, social, and political institutions. Over the past decade, the pace of warming surprised some keen observers and appeared to accelerate, though not yet outside the range of expectation provided by climate models. The reasons for that apparent acceleration are being actively studied (as was the apparent pause in warming from 1998 to 2012), but no single driver has emerged. Some blame it on the El Niño, variability which would have no bearing on climate. Some think it is a result of factories in East Asia and global shipping fleets cutting aerosol emissions, which in the strongest version of the argument would indicate higher climate sensitivity to carbon-dioxide emissions. Others are more measured, not yet ready to draw solid conclusions as to whether climate projections require revision. We will have to see. Long-Term Thinking Climate change asks us to think over long time scales. But the pace of human-driven warming is compressing a large global change into a century. Changing weather patterns and extreme events are already causing adjustment costs and damages and will do more. Adaptation will help, but it is not free. For some communities, these costs will erode livelihoods and well-being, and may force migration. Are we prepared for large-scale managed retreats in the United States? Thankfully, American wealth, geographical diversity, and moderate climates may leave us better prepared than many around the world. But wealthy countries can still suffer serious disruption from narrowly concentrated costs, even if they appear entirely manageable in aggregate. Readers of Commonplace are familiar with the challenges of rapidly adapting to economic forces. The displacement that came from the China Shock is barely perceptible in aggregate GDP and employment data, but it affected millions of people and those people were far less mobile than economic models tended to assume. Deindustrialization rippled through the nation with enormous effects for not only our economic vitality, but also our national security. The forces surrounding climate change may not be so different; the world gets richer and must accept some diffuse costs. Those may be modest overall, but cause all manner of unpredictable effects with which policymakers must cope. In the case of the China Shock, our faith in a growing pie served us poorly. We’ll need to do better on climate. Leave a comment
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