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NRK's Record-Breaking 'Still Breathing' Is Deadline's Global Breakout
'Still Breathing', Norway's answer to 'Pitt', mixes social commentary about a healthcare system under immense pressure with entertaining storylines.
Connections: Sports Edition today: Hints and answers for April 29, 2026, puzzle No. 583
Welcome to Connections: Sports Edition Coach — a spot to gather clues and discuss (and share) scores.
RM Science Bowl triumphs with most successful season in recent history
Someone slams the buzzer, but the molecular biology question has only been half-read. With just enough confidence to risk it all, they answer, knowing that it could make the difference between winning and losing the match. Science Bowl is a fast paced competition for high schoolers sponsored by the Department of Energy that tests students’...
Scientists just found the Milky Way’s edge and it’s closer than expected
Scientists have uncovered the true boundary of the Milky Way’s star-forming region using stellar “age mapping.” They found a telltale U-shaped pattern showing that star formation drops sharply around 35,000–40,000 light-years from the center. Beyond that, stars are mostly migrants, slowly drifting outward rather than forming in place. The discovery gives a long-sought answer to where our galaxy’s stellar nursery really ends.
Politics Chat, April 28, 2026
In which I try to answer your questions about modern politics....
Spring practice ends without answers as Alabama, Florida, Tennessee QB races intensify
How this SEC trio is analyzing each of the QB1 candidates following the spring
YouTube is testing an AI-powered search feature that shows guided answers
YouTube is rolling out the new AI search feature to Premium subscribers in the U.S. on an opt-in basis.
Samsung's First Smart Glasses Reportedly Just Leaked, Including Images & Specs
Images and specs for Samsung’s upcoming smart glasses have reportedly leaked, showing off what could be the South Korean tech giant’s answer to Ray-Ban Meta. The images, which were obtained by Android Headlines, don’t appear to be leaked marketing images as such, but rather “based on real-life pictures of a testing unit of these smart […]
One critical question the 2026 election has already answered
Whether Democrats triumph in November’s elections or Republicans benefit from another improbable Trumpian comeback, they’ll be remembered for a new narrowing of a critical aspect of American democracy.
Connections: Sports Edition today: Hints and answers for April 28, 2026, puzzle No. 582
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Paige Bueckers says it's all business with Azzi Fudd after Wings pick No. 1
The statement from Bueckers came 11 days after the Wings wouldn't let Fudd answer a question about their relationship.
Broncos failed to address biggest pre-draft need amid Evan Engram question
This question is still unanswered for the Broncos.
Today's NYT Connections: Sports Edition Hints, Answers for April 28 #582
Here's today's Connections: Sports Edition answer and hints for groups. These clues will help you solve The New York Times' popular puzzle game, Connections: Sports Edition, every day.
Prison or treatment? Thousands participate in mental health courts. Half graduate — and millions are left out
This story is a collaboration between Illinois Answers and the Chicago bureau of MindSite News; sign up to receive their newsletter here. Bloomington native Shayla Woodworth had struggled with mental illness and […]
Connections: Sports Edition today: Hints and answers for April 27, 2026, puzzle No. 581
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Justin Wrobleski answers adversity, delivers for Dodgers
LOS ANGELES — The box score will remember it as six scoreless innings.
Connections: Sports Edition today: Hints and answers for April 26, 2026, puzzle No. 580
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EDITORIAL: Is Science Good or Bad?
The answer to this isn’t as obvious as you might think. According to some Christians, science is bad when it tells us the earth came into being over millions of years. But other times science is good, such as when it gives the church tools to evangelize, and when it helps us travel around to […]
It's not all Kegels. Here are four things to know before going to pelvic floor therapy.
How can pelvic floor physical therapy help address a variety of pelvic floor issues and improve quality of life? A Louisiana expert answers frequently asked questions.
Connections: Sports Edition today: Hints and answers for April 25, 2026, puzzle No. 579
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LeBron James hits game-tying shot during Rockets collapse as Lakers take Game 3 in OT
How did the Rockets lose that game? The answer involves LeBron James.
'Friday Follies': Prince Harry tries to 'dictate' American politics
Fox News contributor Raymond Arroyo discusses Prince Harry's political takes and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries' answers to kids' questions on 'The Ingraham Angle.'
The Insight Series: AI & Digital Health
“The Insight Series: AI & Digital Health” features industry experts answering key questions to help inform policymakers and the public about how AI is shaping the future of care delivery. Our latest edition features Carlos Nunez, Chief Medical Officer at Resmed.
Will Tommy Thompson return with a run for governor?
Political reporters Molly Beck and Jessie Opoien answer frequently asked questions on Wisconsin's political scene.
Connections: Sports Edition today: Hints and answers for April 24, 2026, puzzle No. 578
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Why Eagles made 2026 NFL draft trade with Cowboys
Why did the Philadelphia Eagles make a draft-day trade with the Dallas Cowboys?? Find all the answers here.
Asking AI health questions? Use with caution, researchers say
Two newly published studies offer a flashing yellow light for anyone who searches for health answers on AI chatbots.
Citizen science helps ID elusive seabird, paves way for more citizen-backed discoveries
Vast online archives of photos, videos and sound recordings collected by the public are reshaping how scientists study the natural world, allowing researchers to answer questions that were once out of ...
MN lawmaker takes action to get answers on Omar's alleged fraud ties after she skips key hearing: 'Ghosted us'
Rep. Ilhan Omar faces scrutiny after skipping a Minnesota hearing on her potential links to the massive Feeding Our Future pandemic fraud probe.
2026 Geochemistry Fellow David Catling reflects on a career spent trying to answer science’s biggest questions
2026 Geochemistry Fellow David Catling reflects on a career spent trying to answer science’s biggest questions
How low can Ohio go? The gubernatorial race might show us
Ohio governor candidates on the right seem determined to answer one question: How low can you go and still get elected?
Suns-Thunder takeaways: There doesn't appear to be an answer for SGA
Connections: Sports Edition today: Hints and answers for April 23, 2026, puzzle No. 577
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Concerns over congressman’s health during lengthy absence
Calls and text messages to a missing New Jersey congressman have gone unanswered
DeSantis says he's taking up Jeffries' invitation to 'F-around and find out' on Florida redistricting effort
Gov. Ron DeSantis fires back at Hakeem Jeffries over Florida redistricting, inviting the Democratic leader to campaign in the state ahead of 2026 midterms.
AI-driven sports technology from Carnegie Mellon students draws interest from Mark Cuban
More than 68 million Americans play a racquet sport, but improving their skills can be difficult. Costs for lessons are becoming increasingly expensive, and feedback for technique isn’t always individualized. But three Carnegie Mellon University students think they have an answer. They launched a company called ServeSense. Pitching their technology
Gamers sue Nintendo over tariff refunds, saying consumers should get the money back
Two gamers have filed a class action lawsuit against Nintendo, alleging that the company will be unjustly enriching itself with any refund it secures from the U.S. government over widespread tariffs last year that, among other things, hiked the prices of Nintendo hardware and accessories. “Unless restrained by this Court, Nintendo stands to recover the same tariff payments twice—once from consumers through higher prices and again from the federal government through tariff refunds, including interest paid by the government on those funds,” the suit states. Nintendo sued the U.S. government to secure a tariff refund in March, after the Supreme Court struck down the tariffs a month prior, saying they were illegally implemented by President Donald Trump.. The gamers who have sued, California-based Gregory Hoffert and Washington-based Prashant Sharan, both say they purchased Nintendo goods that had increased in price due to tariffs, according to the complaint. They filed their suit in the Western District court of Nintendo of America’s home state of Washington and are seeking class action status to represent all people in the U.S. who purchased price-hiked Nintendo goods between February 1, 2025 and February 24, 2026. They allege that Nintendo’s recovery of any tariff refunds would constitute unjust enrichment and violate Washington state consumer protection law. Similar class action lawsuits pressing companies to pass on tariff refunds have been previously filed against FedEx, UPS and eyeglass importer EssilorLuxottica. The tariffs were announced in early April, and by mid-month, Nintendo had announced $5 price increases for controllers for the then-forthcoming Switch 2. In August, it raised the price of the original Switch. In their suit, the gamers cite comments from Nintendo executives connecting the tariffs to price increases. In May 2025, a month after the tariffs were imposed, Nintendo CEO Shuntaro Furukawa told investors “Our basic policy is that for any country or region, if tariffs are imposed, we recognize them as a part of the cost and incorporate them into the price.” Nintendo’s March lawsuit, along with tariff-recovery suits from hundreds of other companies was immediately put on hold pending the implementation of a refund system. The U.S. government announced the beginning of the refund process earlier this week. Companies could receive as much as $160 billion, per CNBC. In March 2026, after Nintendo filed its lawsuit to recover the cost of the tariffs, I asked the company if they planned to pass their refund on to customers who’d paid increased prices. The company’s response acknowledged the existence of the lawsuit but avoided answering that question: “We can confirm that we filed a request. We have nothing else to share on this topic.” Even a promise to consumers may not have spared Nintendo this week’s lawsuit. FedEx previously promised to pass its tariff refunds on to consumers. They’ve been sued over them anyway.
When Summer Screen Time Poses a Mental Health Risk for Teens
Beyond headlines and courtrooms, many families are seeking an answer to a more immediate question: How do we know when social media use is affecting a teenager’s mental health?
Connections: Sports Edition today: Hints and answers for April 22, 2026, puzzle No. 576
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The Profiri Paycheck: $265K Power, Politics, and a Capitol Fight Over Control
There’s a number hanging over the capitol right now: $265,000, and it’s not just about the money.It’s about power, who has it, who questions it, and who answers
Today's NYT Connections: Sports Edition Hints, Answers for April 22 #576
Here's today's Connections: Sports Edition answer and hints for groups. These clues will help you solve The New York Times' popular puzzle game, Connections: Sports Edition, every day.
Warsh vows to keep monetary policy independent of politics
STORY: :: Fed chief nominee Warsh vows to keep monetary policy independent of politics:: Washington, D.C. / April 21, 2026:: Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve chief nominee“Monetary policy independence is essential. Monetary policymakers must act in the nation's interest. Their decision is the product of rigor, deliberation and unclouded decision-making. And as Senator Warren said, I do not believe that independence of monetary policy is threatened when elected officials state their views on rates. Fed independence is up to the Fed." // :: Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Ranking Democrat on Senate Banking Committee“So, independence takes courage. Let's check out your independence and your courage. We'll start easy. Mr. Warsh, did Donald Trump lose the 2020 election?”WARSH: “Um, we try to keep politics, if I’m confirmed, out of the Federal Reserve.”WARREN: “I’m just asking you a factual question. I need to know. I need to measure your independence and your courage.”WARSH: “Senator, I believe that this body certified that election many years ago.”WARREN: “That’s not the question I’m asking. I’m asking did Donald Trump lose in 2020?”WARSH: “And I’m suggesting to you in 2020…”WARREN: “I’m suggesting you can’t answer that.”WARSH: “… the Fed had a huge inflation problem, and you certified the election…[crosstalk]… let’s keep the politics out of monetary policy.” //WARREN: "Just one little place where you disagree with Donald Trump.”WARSH: “Well, I do have a disagreement actually, Senator, with the president. I think even this morning, he said that he thought I was out of central casting. I think central casting, I'd look older, grayer, maybe show up here with a cigar of sorts.”WARREN: “Quite adorable. But, you know, we need a Fed chair who is independent. That's the only way we preserve the independence of the Federal Reserve. If you can't answer these questions, you don't have the courage and you don't have the independence.”In a confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee that quickly hinted at major changes to come at a Warsh-led Fed, the 56-year-old lawyer and financier blamed the central bank for an inflation surge in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic that continues to hurt U.S. households.Warsh's hearing quickly turned contentious. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren pressed Warsh on his independence and "courage", saying President Donald Trump had made clear Warsh would be his "sock puppet".
5 ways your doctor may be using AI chatbots — and why it matters
Millions of Americans are turning to AI chatbots for health answers. But are doctors using these tools? And if so, how?
Connections: Sports Edition today: Hints and answers for April 21, 2026, puzzle No. 575
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NYT Connections Sports Edition hints and answers for April 21: Tips to solve Connections #575
Everything you need to solve Connections Sports Edition #574.
He Sold His Grass-Fed Jerky Company for Millions. Then He Started One of the Hardest Businesses in Food.
Robby Sansom didn't need another company after Epic Provisions. But visitors to a Texas ranch kept asking one question he couldn't answer.
Lancaster Democratic candidates to host public town hall
Democratic legislative candidates Nancy Mannion, James Malone and Chad Gleissl will host a town hall Thursday in Manheim Borough to answer voter questions.
Does nuclear stockpile stewardship’s science diminish global security?
The answer is relevant to the physics community, especially for scientists who are choosing their research paths.
Former New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu was asked if he’ll run for president. See his answer.
“People say, ‘What, are you going to run for president?” Landrieu told the network. “Maybe.”
Connections: Sports Edition today: Hints and answers for April 20, 2026, puzzle No. 574
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Connections: Sports Edition today: Hints and answers for April 19, 2026, puzzle No. 573
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Donovan Mitchell, James Harden lead Cavaliers over Raptors. 3 takeaways from Game 1
Despite a tight first half, Cleveland demonstrated its dominance in the third quarter and left the Raptors with massive questions to answer.
Today's NYT Connections: Sports Edition Hints, Answers for April 19 #573
Here's today's Connections: Sports Edition answer and hints for groups. These clues will help you solve The New York Times' popular puzzle game, Connections: Sports Edition, every day.
iPhone 18 Pro Report: Four New Colors Leak As Apple Cancels Popular Shade
What will the iPhone 18 Pro look like? A new leak has the answer of what to expect this fall.
Connections: Sports Edition today: Hints and answers for April 18, 2026, puzzle No. 572
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Central Texas business owners looking for answers after closure of Painted Tree boutiques
Painted Tree Boutiques has suddenly shut down operations nationwide. The abrupt closure is leaving many local vendors searching for answers and a new place to go next.
Newsom demands answers from RFK Jr. over past comments about Black children on ADHD meds being ‘re-parented’
California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) on Friday said he demands answers from Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. regarding comments the secretary made in an interview in 2024…
What Determines Your Eye Color? The Answer Is More Complicated Than You Think.
Genetics, right? Sort of. Scientists just learned its a bit more nuanced than high school biology.
Whole Hog Politics: A Supreme Court vacancy could remake Senate midterms
[Watch Whole Hog Politics live: Join us today at 9 a.m. ET at TheHill.com as Chris Stirewalt and host Bill Sammon break down this week’s political news and answer questions from a live online audie…
Connections: Sports Edition today: Hints and answers for April 17, 2026, puzzle No. 571
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How are NFL teams handling complications of Rueben Bain Jr. car crash? 5 questions answered
Television Q&A: Has future of CBS show 'Watson' been deduced?
You have questions. I have some answers. Q: I am wondering if you have heard anything about the CBS show "Watson" being renewed for next year. My son and I
Connections: Sports Edition today: Hints and answers for April 16, 2026, puzzle No. 570
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How low should blood pressure go? Science has the answer
New research suggests that aiming for a lower blood pressure target may deliver bigger heart health benefits than previously thought. Using large datasets and simulation models, scientists found that keeping systolic blood pressure below 120 mm Hg could reduce the risk of heart attack, stroke, and heart failure more than higher targets.
Webster Groves business waits week for answers after water main break
A heating and air conditioning business is waiting for cleanup and repairs a week after a water main break flooded its basement
Microsoft's new college deal is a half-hearted answer to the $500 MacBook Neo
Microsoft is offering a bundle of discounted services to college students with the purchase of a new Windows PC.
CBS News business analyst Jill Schlesinger answers frequently asked financial questions
Amazon's budget-friendly answer to the Frame TV will start shipping on April 22
The Fire TVs can double as artwork in your home and come with more than 2,000 pieces of art for free.
Matt Crocker’s abrupt U.S. Soccer departure brings many questions. Here are the answers.
U.S. Soccer's sporting director is headed for Saudi Arabia. This is what it means for the federation – and what comes next at a pivotal time
Connections: Sports Edition today: Hints and answers for April 15, 2026, puzzle No. 569
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Americans ask AI for health care. Hospitals think the answer is more chatbots.
Do you trust AI chatbots for health advice? What about one in your patient portal?
Roundup: Business optimism / Cleveland’s housing answer / America at 250
Slipping further: U.S. small business optimism fell for a third straight month in March, hitting its lowest level in nearly a year as the Iran conflict drove up energy costs and uncertainty. Owners reported weaker expectations for profits, sales and economic conditions, while plans for capital spending dropped sharply. Rising input costs are also prompting […]
You can order your own bloodwork now. Interpreting the results is another story
Firms like Function Health and Oura market regular blood tests to people wanting to take their health into their own hands. The process often raises more questions for patients than it can answer.
Google brings its Gemini Personal Intelligence feature to India
The feature lets users connect Google accounts like Gmail and Photos to get personalized answers
What Is Business For? The Question Strategic Management Has Never Answered
The field of strategic management has grown more rigorous – and less relevant – as it avoids the question of business purpose.
Connections: Sports Edition today: Hints and answers for April 14, 2026, puzzle No. 568
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Bengals player smoothly answers Dexter Lawrence trade question
A Bengals player got asked about a Dexter Lawrence trade and handled it in a way fans will like.
Julie’s new AI chatbot aims to fix a major gap in women’s health information
The emergency contraception brand is using a chatbot to answer the questions Gen Z is already asking online.
Intel May Have an Answer to AMD's Most Powerful Gaming CPUs
The Intel and AMD CPU rivalry is getting exciting again.
Who’s the greatest No. 1 pick in WNBA history? Our ranking delivers answers
This year marks the 30th WNBA draft. From Tina Thompson to A'ja Wilson, we've ranked each of the No. 1 overall picks in league history.
Connections: Sports Edition today: Hints and answers for April 13, 2026, puzzle No. 567
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Today's NYT Connections: Sports Edition Hints, Answers for April 13 #567
Here's today's Connections: Sports Edition answer and hints for groups. These clues will help you solve The New York Times' popular puzzle game, Connections: Sports Edition, every day.
Op-Ed: Protecting Taxpayers Means Looking Beyond the Politics of Short-Term Rentals
Santa Barbara is on the verge of making a consequential decision about short-term rentals—but without first answering a basic question: what will it cost?
AI health questions? 4 chatbot prompt tips to get the most accurate answers
AI chatbots can still get medical questions wrong, according to new research.
Athletics finding reasons to celebrate while Mets looking for answers
The Athletics went viral with a new home run celebration Saturday as they locked up a winning road trip to New York.
Connections: Sports Edition today: Hints and answers for April 12, 2026, puzzle No. 566
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Today's NYT Connections: Sports Edition Hints, Answers for April 12 #566
Here's today's Connections: Sports Edition answer and hints for groups. These clues will help you solve The New York Times' popular puzzle game, Connections: Sports Edition, every day.
Protecting Taxpayers Means Looking Beyond the Politics of Short-Term Rentals
Santa Barbara is on the verge of making a consequential decision about short-term rentals — but without first answering a basic question: What will it cost?
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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