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Sebastian Vettel: Divisive 2026 rules risk "DNA and heart" F1
The four-time world champion believes that Formula 1 must be careful not to lose its “DNA” as the 2026 regulations divide drivers and fans
WELL Health Patient Volumes Surge As Primary Care Margins Improve
WELL Health Technologies (TSX:WELL) reported record patient volumes in Q1-2026, supported by higher activity in its Primary Care segment. Operational changes and an expanded affiliate network were key drivers of Primary Care growth and improved clinic margins. The company continues to add clinics to its network, extending its reach across its core markets. For investors watching TSX:WELL, the latest Q1-2026 update focuses on patient volumes and clinic performance rather than headline...
University of Tampa breaks ground on new innovation center, focused on health and science fields
The University of Tampa broke ground on the largest investment in its 94-year history. The school is building the Dickey Science Innovation Center, overlooking the Hillsborough River.
University of Tampa breaks ground on new innovation center, focused on health and science fields
The University of Tampa broke ground on the largest investment in its 94-year history. The school is building the Dickey Science Innovation Center, overlooking the Hillsborough River.
Business along Fox River in Antioch still bustling even with high water levels
Dozens of crashes into Long Grove bridge tracked by local business on ‘wall of shame'
A suburban chocolate shop is stepping beyond selling treats to track the dozens of times a historic bridge has been hit by truck drivers since 2020.
Black River Entertainment Partners With Akando Music For Radio Promotion
Black River Entertainment has partnered with AKANDO Music for radio promotion. The first [...]
ICE detains the wife of an Army sergeant in Texas
Deisy Rivera Ortega was being held at El Paso Service Processing Center.
The Comeback of the Physical Store—and What It Means for Your Business
Brick-and-mortar retail is not declining but evolving, as stores take on new roles as logistics hubs, experiential destinations, and powerful drivers of demand and brand equity. Rising digital acquisition costs and operational challenges are pushing companies to integrate physical and online channels, using stores to improve fulfillment, customer engagement, and marketing effectiveness. The broader lesson for leaders: assets once viewed as liabilities can become competitive advantages when their role is reimagined and aligned with changing economics and customer behavior.
Regulating the Mississippi River: Where art and science meet
When Dan Fasching started painting again after a decade, he said it was because it was something near and dear to his heart. His muse? The Mississippi River that he works on every day.
Teacher Feature: Indian River Co. educator brings animals, adventure to science class
CBS12 News' next “Teacher Feature” from the School District of Indian River County creates a sense of wonder in her classroom.
This week in Santa Cruz County business: Graniterock facing lawsuit over Pajaro River; housing development at former Outdoor World site moves forward
In her weekly look at local business, Jessica M. Pasko reports on a lawsuit filed by environmental groups against Watsonville's Graniterock, development continuing in downtown Santa Cruz and plenty more names, numbers and dates to know.
Riverhead sets hearing on condemning science center building
A split Riverhead Town Board voted Tuesday to set a May 20 public hearing on the proposed condemnation of the Long Island Science Center’s long-vacant building.
Delivered! - The Courier Driver Business
In many German cities, bicycle couriers deliver burgers, pizza, and other food to people's homes. Thousands of these riders come from India, lured by the promise of studying in Germany, and have incurred heavy debts.
Spring Sports in Full Bloom: Soccer and Softball highlights
Highlights for both sides of the river
Middle River Veterinary Hospital celebrates 30 years in business
Kathryn Cash, the hospital’s veterinarian and current owner, said the clinic was founded and built in 1996 by Dr. Julie Bullock, who still lives in the area.
'Pretty stunning': Data shows political division is a top concern for Americans
'Common Ground': UNITE CEO Tim Shriver analyzes the alarming rise of political polarization in America on 'Special Report.'
Volume 25 Science Of Speed
Our annual racing deep dive goes full engineering — from chassis and powertrains to tires, batteries, aero, and driver fitness, featuring machines like the new Corvette ZR1 and McLaren Solus GT.
Volume 25 Science Of Speed
Our annual racing deep dive goes full engineering — from chassis and powertrains to tires, batteries, aero, and driver fitness, featuring machines like the new Corvette ZR1 and McLaren Solus GT.
Twelve 33 Distillery in Little River offers a taste of local history
Husband-and-wife team Kevin and Rebecca Osborn, founders of the Grand Strand’s first — and only — craft production distillery, named their establishment “Twelve 33.” It is open in Little River.
RiverFlix to offer 27 weeks of free family entertainment in Wichita
RiverFlix returns to Wichita’s Exploration Place on April 24, offering 27 weeks of free Friday night movies, food trucks, and family-friendly activities along the riverfront.
Cocaine pollution in rivers and lakes may disrupt behaviour of salmon, study finds
Fish swam further and dispersed more widely after exposure to environmental levels of drug and main metabolite
Bear Bytes Initiative Supports Students’ Holistic Health
At New York Tech, leaders recognize that access to healthy food is one of the most fundamental drivers of success.
Georgia's Vibrant District Is The Entertainment Hub Of Savannah's Scenic Riverfront
Aside from stunningly romantic riverfront views, the Plant Riverside District in Savannah, Georgia, offers many restaurants, shopping spots, and exhibits.
Robert Massimi on Three Shifts Reshaping the Relationship Between Business and the Arts
Robert Massimi, CEO of RM Global Advisors in Saddle River, New Jersey, outlines how the boundary between commerce and
2025 major champion puts 30-gram driver shaft into play
Miyu Yamashita opts for an extremely lightweight shaft profile to make some performance gains this week at the JM Eagle Championship.
Valve Developer Further Improves Old AMD GPUs: HD 7870 XT Finally Working On Linux
Timur Kristóf of Valve's Linux graphics driver team is the one that worked on improving the old AMD Radeon GCN 1.0/1.1 graphics card support by making AMDGPU driver improvements so it could become the default for these Southern Islands and Sea Islands GPUs rather than the legacy Radeon kernel driver
MRN BUSINESS SPOTLIGHT: Pointe D'Vine
On this Business Spotlight, brought to you by the Bank of Springfield, Rita and Jessica Speckhart join Crissie Caccamo to share everything Point D’Vine has to offer. Set on 35 scenic acres, Point D’Vine is known for its stunning wedding venue, a vineyard established in 2011, and a beautifully restored barn that was featured during...
Kelly Burke's love for Grand Canyon leaves her mark on the landscape
A gig as a shuttle driver for Grand Canyon river rafters led Kelly Burke to a life of science and conservation.
Riverview apartments sell for $7.5M below 2021 sale price
The community just off Interstate 75 was bought by a Virginia real estate investment firm.
Sports Highlights
Nathan Pai: Nathan Pai, a junior on the Lake Oswego boys golf team, broke through to finish second in the Three Rivers League tournament at Stone Creek Golf Club in […]
Downtown businesses share early impact after Little Rock curfew takes effect
LITTLE ROCK, Ark. — The newly implemented youth curfew in downtown Little Rock is already drawing mixed, but largely positive, reactions from River Market businesses after its first night in effect. C...
Minnesota medical drivers plead for help from politicians after national business cancels contract over fraud allegations
A national medical transportation business says allegations of fraud caused it to recently cancel a 20-year contract with a local company. The company says it's not true.
Juha Miettinen dies in seven-car crash during Max Verstappen's Nurburgring race
Driver Juha Miettinen passes away following seven-car incident during Nurburgring race, which has received wide interest due to Max Verstappens participation; Formula 1 returns with a Sprint weekend in Miami on May 1-3, live on Sky Sports F1
A comet gets destroyed by the sun, data centers endanger the Potomac River, and more science news
These are the science stories that captured our attention this week.
Uber, Lyft driver: Gas prices are affecting which trips I take
An Uber and Lyft driver says high gas prices are changing how he drives and which trips he accepts.
Arts and entertainment throughout the region
A listing of arts and entertainment events throughout the region.
Arts and entertainment throughout the region
A listing of arts and entertainment events throughout the region.
San Francisco drivers, businesses prep for weekend closure of I-80 Bay Bridge approach
Doc Rivers indicates his NBA coaching career is over after end of Bucks tenure: 'I'm done'
Young scientists to present at 53rd Upper East Tennessee Science Fair
The 53rd annual Upper East Tennessee Science Fair will bring hundreds of students to ETSU on April 25 to showcase projects that highlight curiosity, hands-on learning and scientific inquiry.
Caitlyn Jenner slammed over asking Donald Trump for help changing passport gender
'The View' star Ana Navarro slammed Caitlyn Jenner for asking Donald Trump for help after her passport was changed to reflect the gender she was assigned at birth: 'Cry me a f---ing river.'
Duffy withholds federal funding from New York over immigrant trucker licenses dispute
New York will lose more than $73.5 million in federal money because the Transportation Department said Thursday that state has refused to revoke nearly 33,000 questionable commercial driver's licenses for immigrants since an audit uncovered problems last year.
Future Business Leaders of America conference unites students from across the state
Rochester, N.Y. — New York state's leadership conference took over the Joseph A. Floreano Rochester Riverside Convention Center Thursday afternoon.The event br
NASCAR Accused Of 'Losing The South' By Former Driver
A five-time NASCAR Cup Series winner made it abundantly clear this week that he's not pleased with the current product. This past Sunday's race at Bristol Motor Speedway averaged 1.945 million viewers on FS1, per Nielsen's data. That’s down 5% from last year, which would make it the least-watched ...
RFK Jr.'s peptide policy could boost Hims & Hers as its GLP-1 business evolves
Hims may have an chance to grow peptides business as a potential revenue driver, with FDA review in 2026 shaping the opportunity.
Thousands suffer nausea, delirium and other health issues from toxins in the Tijuana River
For decades, billions of gallons of sewage and industrial waste have been dumped into the Tijuana River.
Tijuana River sewage is making the air toxic, scientists say
For decades, billions of gallons of sewage and industrial waste have been dumped into the Tijuana River.
How much do gig workers make? Uber, DoorDash, Taskrabbit breakdown
Gig workers — from Uber drivers to Taskrabbit handymen — told us how much they earned in 2025. For some, it was a side hustle, while others worked full-time.
Colorado cannot afford to get the Colorado River wrong
By Larry Don Suckla Colorado and our neighboring states are standing on the edge of a crisis that is no longer theoretical. The Colorado River, the lifeline of the American west, is facing conditions that demand immediate, responsible action. If we fail to act wisely, the consequences will not just be environmental. Right now, the […]
AMD Linux Graphics Driver Introducing "Power Module" To Better Match Windows Behavior
With the set of today's AMDGPU kernel graphics driver Display Core (DC) patches is a rather curious addition with wiring up the Linux code to a 'power module' that looks like it will better match Microsoft Windows behavior with the AMD Radeon driver around display-related power savings features.
ENTERTAINMENT: Concerts celebrate freedom; watercolors on display
The River City Men’s Chorus offers a concert it’s titling “FREEDOM!,” which a news release describes as “a choral celebration of the ways we dream of, achieve and exercise our many freedoms,” 3 p.m. Sunday and 7 p.m. Monday and April 23 at St. James United Methodist Church.
Former River City Science Academy Elementary employee arrested, accused of grooming a student
River City Science Academy teacher arrested, accused ‘grooming’ student using messages on Canva app
A River City Science Academy teacher was arrested Tuesday and charged with felony counts alleging he solicited a romantic relationship with a student and unlawfully used a communication device, the Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office said.
On this Jackie Robinson Day, reject this lie Major League Baseball tells about itself
Kevin B. Blackistone: Sports are not a driver of social change
Fator brings his feel-good show to Bally's Twin River Friday
LINCOLN – I spoke with Terry Fator at 9:30 in the morning. “It’s just 6:30 where you are,” I said, knowing he was in Las Vegas.
Ocean eddies are amplifying climate extremes in coastal seas, study finds
New research reveals a powerful yet overlooked driver of climate change: Intensifying ocean eddies.
Sergio Garcia apologizes for slamming club, breaking driver in Masters meltdown: 'I regret the way I acted'
24,000 Years After Being Frozen In The Siberian Permafrost, This Ancient Creature Woke Up And Began To Reproduce
Scientists thawed the ancient sample from the Alazeya River in northeastern Siberia, and to their surprise, the creature woke up.
Here’s Why JDP Capital Management Exited Its Position in Caesars Entertainment (CZR)
JDP Capital Management, an investment management company, released its “Survivor & Thriver Fund” first-quarter 2026 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. In the first quarter, the fund declined 15.1% net to investors compared to the S&P 500’s -4.3% return. Concerns about AI destruction fears and consumer softness impacted market sentiment in […]
Virginia Health Officials Issue Fish Consumption Advisory for Chickahominy River
April 14, 2026 Media Contact: Brookie Crawford, brookie.crawford@vdh.virginia.gov Virginia Health Officials Issue Fish Consumption Advisory for Chickahominy River Contaminants Identified in Black Crappie RICHMOND, Va. – Effective immediately, the Virginia Department of Health (VDH) is issuing a fish consumption advisory for the Chickahominy River due to elevated perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) levels in black crappie. Fish […]
Final tour for Alabama stops in Cedar Rapids
Alabama, a band that marries country with Southern rock, was among the most successful acts of the '80s. Known for hits like "Tennessee River," they will perform on Sunday at the Alliant Energy PowerHouse.
How downtown San Antonio businesses prepare for Fiesta
A few businesses downtown have front row seats to road and river parades, which bring good business for some and less customers for others.
Scientists finally know where the Colorado River’s missing water is going
For years, water managers have been puzzled as the Colorado River kept delivering less water than expected—even when snowpack levels looked promising. New research reveals the missing piece: spring rain, or rather, the lack of it. Warmer, drier springs mean plants are soaking up more snowmelt before it can reach rivers, fueled by sunny skies that boost growth and evaporation. In fact, this shift explains nearly 70% of the shortfall, tying the mystery directly to the long-running Millennium drought.
Three Exit Black River Entertainment
SVP Promotion Bill Macky, Midwest regional Joe Carroll and West Coast rep Jim Malito have [...]
Walmsley secures 'last-minute' drive for 2026 season
Racing driver Lydia Walmsley says it is a "miracle" that she will be on the grid this year after an 11th hour deal with a new team.
Doc Rivers steps down as Bucks head coach after team collapsed during miserable 2025-26 season
Internal OpenAI memo touts Amazon partnership as key driver of enterprise business
CNBC's Kate Rooney reports on an internal OpenAI memo that touts its Amazon partnership as a key driver of its enterprise business.
Tractor-trailer careens into building in Clifton, NJ
The big rig driver careened into Limo Ride, a business along Kensington Avenue and Route 3, just before 2:30 a.m.
Doc Rivers out as Milwaukee Bucks coach, per report
Doc Rivers is out as coach of the Milwaukee Bucks after a disappointing 32-50 finish to the 2025-26 NBA season.
Patient-Provider Discussions on Lung Cancer Screening: Insights From the Health Information National Trends Survey (HINTS)
Background Lung cancer risk is significantly elevated in individuals with chronic lung diseases (CLDs), including asthma, emphysema, and chronic bronchitis. Despite this, lung cancer screenin...
Working at the Grassroots Level: A Qualitative Exploration of Frontline Health Workers’ Experiences in Tribal Maternal and Reproductive Health Services
Background Frontline health workers play a crucial role in bridging gaps between health systems and marginalized communities. However, there is limited evidence of their experiences within tr...
California Republicans deadlocked on endorsing governor candidate
Neither Fox News commentator Steve Hilton nor Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco received the required delegate support at the state convention, which ended Sunday.
Masters 2026: Sergio Garcia gets warning after going nuclear on tee box, breaking driver and ending up carrying Jon Rahm's bag
Sergio Garcia was given a warning just two holes after he erupted on Sunday morning.
Up a ramp, finally off the big river
KALTAG — A few hours ago, Forest Wagner and I shoved our loaded bikes up a ramp of snow and onto Front Street.
Bob on Business: From riverfront residences to office/restaurant
Also, Go Texan grants; esports looks to score; real estate deals; and awards for area leaders, company.
Taco Bell's Golden Bell awards are key to its company growth
Taco Bell's annual management retreat is more than recognition for its top-performing staff — it's a key driver of growth and staff retention.
110,000-year-old discovery rewrites human history: Neanderthals and Homo sapiens worked together
The first-ever published research on Tinshemet Cave reveals that Neanderthals and Homo sapiens in the mid-Middle Paleolithic Levant not only coexisted but actively interacted, sharing technology, lifestyles, and burial customs. These interactions fostered cultural exchange, social complexity, and behavioral innovations, such as formal burial practices and the symbolic use of ochre for decoration. The findings suggest that human connections, rather than isolation, were key drivers of technological and cultural advancements, highlighting the Levant as a crucial crossroads in early human history.
Bridging Oral Health and Integrated Care: A Scientometric Study of Integrated Care for Older People (ICOPE) and Removable Prosthodontics in Older Adults
Population aging has shifted healthcare priorities from disease-centered models towards functional ability and quality of life. The WHO Integrated Care for Older People (ICOPE) framework operati...
Musicians and music lovers flock to Little River’s Star Tavern
There’s a small blue and red building that sits back from a busy highway in Little River, that one regular customer describes as an “artistic mecca” for musicians. And it is flourishing under Ron Johnson's leadership.
Scientists Baffled by Bizarre “Living Fossil” From 275 Million Years Ago
Tanyka amnicola is a newly identified ancient tetrapod known from unusual twisted jawbones adapted for grinding plants. This rare herbivorous “living fossil” helps scientists better understand early evolution and ecosystems in Gondwana. In a dry riverbed in Brazil, deep within a forest near the A
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Ahead of fishing opener, health officials update fish consumption guidelines
The new fish consumption guidelines include warnings about eating too much fish caught in northeastern Minnesota lakes and rivers, where fish tend to have higher mercury levels. And the state warns against consuming fish from the Vermillion River, south of the Twin Cities, because of PFAS contamination.
Sisters teen keeping drivers awake with caffeine lollipop business
A Sisters teen teamed up with a Portland businessman to run a caffeine lollipop business, with the goal of ensuring people don’t fall asleep at the wheel. Kale Gardner, the […]
Arts and entertainment throughout the region
A listing of arts and entertainment events throughout the region.
Masters 2026: Brooks Koepka's driver was set to the wrong setting
Koepka noticed the error after his round on Thursday at Augusta National.
Can sports media really change the way you look at sports?
While stats are helpful, very rarely do numbers tell the full story.
Science students find mentorship and pathways to career success
Batool Abdulruhman and Alyssa Rivera both grew up in rural Valley communities where doctors are scarce and medical care is difficult to access. Now they are on a path to become doctors practicing in the Valley because of the support and mentorship they received through the Center for Access to Science for All (CASA) in […]
MDOT plans $1.5M repair project on I-94 Business Loop in Marysville
Drivers in Marysville can expect lane shifts and closures as MDOT begins a $1.5M repair project on the I-94 Business Loop starting April 20.
Gadsden to invest $2.7 million in sports complex upgrades along Coosa River
Gadsden city leaders are investing millions of dollars into the city’s sports complex, with new construction aimed at expanding playing space and drawing larger
Business owners see growth in Little Rock’s Riverdale area
Multiple restaurant owners in Riverdale described the growth of more businesses popping up in their area. One of the owners was Fidel Samour, who owned Fidel and Co., Red Door and Loca Luna.
Nevada Health Centers’ Mammovan expands rural mammograms, seeks licensed drivers
For women across Nevada, getting an annual mammogram can be quicker and more convenient thanks to a mobile clinic designed to bring breast cancer screenings dir
3L Rachel Sadler Charts Path in Brain Health, Technology, and Policy Through UC Law SF’s Health Law Concentration - UC Law San Francisco (Formerly UC Hastings)
3L Rachel Sadler studies health law and policy at UC Law SF while researching the legal implications of neurotechnology and other emerging tools that may affect human cognition. 3L student Rachel Sadler shares how UC Law SF’s Health Law Concentration prepared her for a career focused on the intersection of brain health, government policy, and technology. Gained a detailed understanding of how U.S. health care is regulated and where policy reform is needed through coursework and research. Interned with state and federal agencies that regulate health care services and worked with a major health care provider’s bioethics department. Plans to pursue a career focused on protecting cognitive liberty and mental privacy as new technologies reshape healthcare. 3L Rachel Sadler: The Health Law Concentration has given me fluency in one of the most complex regulated industries and the tools to become an effective advocate for better health policy. Before coming to law school, I spent a decade teaching and working with teachers and administrators on high school programming for multilingual learners. Healthcare kept emerging as the most powerful driver of student outcomes. I wanted to understand how to make effective policy change in this area and how to use existing law to defend people’s health rights in California. Through the concentration’s coursework, I gained a sophisticated understanding of how U.S. healthcare is regulated. I also learned where the pressure points for reform exist. The courses gave me space to develop what became my central research interest: how law and policy can be built to protect human cognition and healthy brain development, particularly regarding new technologies such as generative AI and neurotechnology. The health law faculty were instrumental in that process, genuinely invested in helping me and other students define and pursue our own intellectual vision. During law school, I interned at the General Counsel’s Office for Region IX of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. I also externed at the California Department of Justice’s Health, Education and Welfare Division. Additionally, I externed at Kaiser Permanente Northern California’s Bioethics Department. Alongside those placements, I conducted extensive independent research on mental privacy and emerging neurotechnology, working closely with Professors Emily Murphy and George Horvath. That research became the throughline of my law school experience and the foundation of my current policy focus. I must also credit Nicole Ozer of the Center for Constitutional Democracy (CCD), whose deep knowledge of California privacy law and the public-interest privacy landscape deeply informed my work. I currently serve a research assistant with the CCD, where I spearhead the development of K-12 educational resources in partnership with law faculty and students. I’ve found UC Law SF to be an ideal place for second-career, nontraditional students. There is a tremendous diversity of life and career experience here, and I felt fully welcomed into the community, despite returning as a student at a different stage of life. I came to law school wanting to promote equity in California’s healthcare system. I am leaving with a sharper and more specific ambition: to build a policy career focused on protecting cognitive liberty and mental privacy from technological intrusion. This is both an urgent and underserved area of law, and I want to be part of defining this landscape going forward. Whether as a practicing attorney or a policy advisor, I plan to work on these issues after law school. I strongly recommend UC Law SF and the Health Law Concentration. When I arrived in law school, I worried the concentration would be narrow and that my non-clinical background would be a disadvantage. The opposite was true. The health law faculty thinks about health expansively, encompassing social determinants of health, structural inequity, and emerging technologies alongside the regulatory mechanics of the industry. The faculty are accessible, intellectually generous, and genuinely invested in students’ development. I found my research vision here, and I deeply appreciate the concentration’s role in this. The Evidence of Success series highlights UC Law SF students as they share how the College’s opportunities equip them with the experience, skills, and confidence to excel in the legal profession.
Spotify Introduces New Video Controls for Listeners
Spotify has always been about putting listeners in the driver’s seat. Today, people don’t just want more ways to spend their time; they want that time to be well spent. That’s why, from Taste Profile to Prompted Playlist, and the expansion of managed accounts to Smart Filters, we’re giving users more control over their listening...
Riverhead moves to seize Long Island Science Center building by eminent domain
The center insists it has the resources to renovate the property and open soon.
Things to do this weekend in Metro Detroit
Concerts, comedy, dance and more are on deck around town this weekend, April 10-12.