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From The Sports Desk: The U.S. advances, but loses Folarin Balogun to costly red card
The U.S. beat Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-0 to advance to the round of 16, where it will face Belgium next. But the U.S. will be without Balogun, its top goal-scorer of this tournament.
Controversial penalty ends Senegal’s FIFA World Cup run against Belgium
Late VAR penalty leads to fury as Senegal blows 2-0 lead, loses 3-2 to Belgium in dramatic World Cup Round of 32 exit.
New York Jets News: Karl Dunbar Leads Revamped Defensive Line
Your daily links to the New York Jets
New details about 'The Wire' actor James Ransone's death revealed
New information about the death of 'The Wire' actor James Ransone was revealed in a report from the County of Los Angeles Medical Examiner's office.
Bayer shifts US glyphosate business to Ruveon after seeking tariffs on Chinese imports
Bayer said on Wednesday it is consolidating its U.S. glyphosate business into its Ruveon unit, a day after it asked Washington to impose duties on Chinese imports of the chemical used in the company's weedkiller Roundup.
Middle School Students Conduct Summer Science Experiments at USU STARS GEAR UP Biotechnology Camp
Utah middle school students from Sanpete County gained hands-on STEM experience during a two-day Biotech camp in June.
Raskin helps Belgium stage comeback to book last-16 place
Rangers midfielder Nicolas Raskin helped inspire Belgium to a dramatic fightback from 2-0 down to defeat Senegal and book a place in the last 16 of the World Cup. The Belgians were trailing to goals from Diarra and Sar when Belgium head coach Rudi Garcia threw on Raskin and Dodi Lukebakio for Kevin de Bruyne and Jeremy Doku after 55 minutes at Seattle Stadium.
Wilton Manors business group steps up support for LGBTQ community
As Pride Month came to a close, many community leaders pointed to corporations, saying a growing number have pulled their sponsorships from Pride events amid the current political climate.
Youri Tielemans' Late Goal Brings Belgium Level with Senegal
Youri Tielemans scored a late stunner to bring Belgium level with Senegal.
Trump's actions signal a move toward institutionalizing people with disabilities, advocates warn
For decades, disabled people have fought for their rights to go to school and live alongside peers without disabilities — rights that some fear could be losing ground under the Trump administration.
The New 'Legally Blonde' Prequel 'Elle' Is a Fun '90s Nostalgia-Fest (and I Can't Wait to Binge the Whole Thing)
The long-awaited 'Legally Blonde' prequel series 'Elle' is finally here. But is the new Prime Video show any good? Here my honest 'Elle' review.
Draw down of Pineview Reservoir creates recreation, business concerns
Pineview Reservoir will be significantly drawn down towards the end of this summer as Ogden city prepares to replace part of an aging water pipeline, despite concerns from small businesses.
Apple’s iPhone 18 Pro Max eSIM Model To Pack A Mammoth 5,425mAh Battery, While Physical SIM Buyers Get Predictably Shortchanged On Battery Capacity
In keeping with the prevailing divulgatory trend, the latest tidbit has detailed the battery capacity within Apple's iPhone 18 Pro Max.
What to know about the US supreme court’s ruling on trans athletes
Decision upholding bans on trans girls in women’s sports in two states is narrow, but could be broadly weaponized for anti-LGBTQ+ efforts
LG LIGHTS UP FOURTH OF JULY SAVINGS ACROSS HOME ENTERTAINMENT AND APPLIANCES
Limited-Time Fourth of July Deals Available on Select LG OLED TVs, Gaming Monitors, Refrigerators, Dishwashers, Vacuums, Laptops and Audio Products News...
California trucking business files for bankruptcy
Commodity Transporters initiated the Chapter 11 petition.
July Fourth fun, theater, music on tap this week in Alachua County
There's no shortage of ways in Gainesville and Alachua County to commemorate and celebrate America's 250th anniversary.
USA vs Bosnia-Herzegovina – Predicted lineup and team news
San Francisco Bay Area Stadium hosts the World Cup last 32 on Thursday morning as USA take on Bosnia-Herzegovina, with a place in the round of 16 against Belgium or Senegal at stake.Mauricio Pochettin...
Azure CLI Password Spray Hits at Least 78 Microsoft Accounts in 81M+ Attempts
Huntress says attackers made 81M Azure CLI password spray attempts from June 12-26, 2026, using ROPC to bypass weak CAPs.
Yankees ‘Run It Back’ Offseason Plan Receives Interesting Take
Coming into the 2026 MLB season, there was some concern about the New York Yankees, as they decided to "run it back" over the offseason following a disappointing postseason outcome.
Algeria to vote in test of post-Hirak political landscape
Algeria holds legislative elections amid debates over reform, turnout and political stability.
Seven gastrointestinal illness cases linked to Seattle sushi restaurant, health officials say
Seven people reported getting sick after eating at the Sushi%AYCE/All You Can Eat restaurant in Seattle’s Chinatown International District.
5 takeaways from Supreme Court rulings on Trump, elections and LGBTQ+ rights
This term, the Supreme Court justices gave President Donald Trump more power — but not as much as he wanted.
Mississippi Power Foundation partners with the Mississippi Arts + Entertainment Experience for America250
Mississippi Power and The MAX team up for an America250 Summer Celebration
Cavs are reportedly interested in another reunion with LeBron James
Don’t count out a return to Cleveland just yet.
Trump administration puts religious freedom at heart of US health policy
Critics say the new focus could reshape LGBTQ+ healthcare, abortion access and vaccine policy
Milwaukee Brewers' Joey Ortiz Delivers Heroics in Late Innings
Facing roster pressure after a top prospect's arrival, the infielder silenced critics with a clutch eighth-inning blast to secure a vital victory and solidify his place with the Milwaukee Brewers.
Supreme Court upholds state transgender sports bans
In the latest of a string of losses for LGBTQ rights, the high court allowed states to bar transgender athletes from girls’ and women’s sports.
Lexus expands its MSG presence across arenas, theaters and Knicks games
Lexus gains entitlement rights at Chase Square entrances and more signage across MSG venues, plus expanded exposure during Knicks and Rangers games.
Jon and Mindy Gray Bet on AI Science Research to Prevent Cancer
Blackstone Inc. President Jon Gray has steered his firm to more artificial-intelligence investments, and the same is true with his science philanthropy.
Trafalgar Entertainment Announces Acquisition Of The London Theatre Company
Trafalgar Entertainment is delighted to announce its acquisition of the London Theatre Company (LTC). | The deal includes The Bridge Theatre and a King’s Cross venue which hosts immersive entertainment business, Lightroom.
AI cuts hospital system's MRI wait times by more than 50%
The health network, which operates 37 hospitals in California, drastically reduced scheduling delays after integrating an FDA-cleared algorithm designed to speed up imaging acquisition times.
The footballer swapping the pitch for the beach
Erin Bloomfield plays and coaches at Sherborne FC, but also represents England on the sand.
Bullpen blows it as Rockies fall to Marlins 10-7
Hunter Goodman hits 26th HR as his hot June continues
'Cruel, heartless': Critics raise health concerns with proposed immigrant detention facility
Critics warn that plans for a proposed immigration detention center in Salt Lake City may not be dead and are raising healthcare concerns if such a facility is built.
Jaxson Dart Learning 2 New Skills from Giants ‘Enhancement’ Guru
Jaxson Dart is learning two new skills from an "enhancement" guru for the New York Giants. The post Jaxson Dart Learning 2 New Skills from Giants ‘Enhancement’ Guru appeared first on HEAVY.
Cornell Yang Center for Wildlife Health awards seed funding to five conservation efforts around the globe
The CCF provides catalytic seed funding to spark pioneering applied research to advance wildlife conservation solutions. The fund prioritizes initiatives that improve the health of free-ranging wildlife and/or solve environmental problems via a One Health lens.
The Hollywood Reporter Tops 2026 SoCal Journalism Awards With 20 First-Place Wins, More Than Any Other Outlet
Among its awards are best website, journalist of the year honors for Gary Baum and Seth Abramovitch, best film critic for David Rooney, and best audio anchor/host for Scott Feinberg. Overall, THR nabb...
We’re still writing p3ri0d
What algorithmic suppression of women’s health content is actually costing us.
Digital research repository arXiv to start new chapter as nonprofit
On July 1, the digital research respository arXiv, house at Cornell Tech, will transition to an independent nonprofit, enabling faster technological development, expanded partnerships and long-term financial sustainability.
AI is changing expectations for MBA graduates
While MBA job prospects are expected to remain stable in the near future, new hires will be held to higher standards inside rapidly evolving workplaces.
Ad Performance And Politics Steered Brand Dollars Away From LGBTQ+ Communities – But The Pendulum Will Swing Back
The current administration discouraged many brands and organizations from supporting and marketing to the LGBTQ+ community, including in June
Trafalgar Entertainment acquires Nicholas Hytner’s Bridge theatre
London Theatre Company founded in 2017 by Hytner and former National Theatre colleague Nick Starr has been sold to company that owns 20-plus venues in UK and abroad
What’s next for 988 LGBTQ+ services?
Private ERs, pulmonary hypertension, and other health news from Morning Rounds
London Theatre Company, Including Bridge Theatre, Sold to Trafalgar Entertainment
The company has hosted recent revivals of Into the Woods and Guys and Dolls .
Trafalgar Entertainment to Acquire The London Theatre Company
Trafalgar Entertainment announced the acquisition of The London Theatre Company, adding The Bridge Theatre and King's Cross Venue to its growing portfolio of entertainment venues.
At 99, this Pasadena ballet teacher has no plans to stop dancing
Helga Monson de Kansky was once predicted to become ballet's next star. Instead, she chose a life with her family and a career as a dance instructor.
FIFA Let Politics Win Over Football, Iran Paid The Price For Political Hypocrisy
Football's governing body has long sold itself as apolitical - like the IOC - an organisation above borders, above diplomacy, above conflict. But this World Cup has challenged that idea and changed perceptions about FIFA.
Queerying neuroscience: How legislation and institutions reframe LGBTQIA+ researchers’ careers
In honor of Pride Month, The Transmitter spoke with three researchers who surveyed hundreds of LGBTQIA+ neuroscientists to better understand how institutional support, harassment and policy intersect to shape their professional trajectories.
Can the so-called nanobubbler save the Reflecting Pool?
The $1.7 million “ozone nanobubbler” being used in an effort to make the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool water crystal clear has a unique ability to shoot 500 million microscopic bubbles into every teaspoon of water. The injected oxygen is supposed to oxidize — or, unscientifically speaking, smash through — algae, bacteria and other chemicals.
Mets drop tough one in series finale
A.J. Ewing nearly had his Mets moment, but a Kyle Schwarber home run ruined the fun on Sunday afternoon.
Photos: St. Louisans brought the love to PrideFest despite heat, ‘hateful’ political climate
As a weeklong heat wave settles on St. Louis, the city’s LGBTQ community was undeterred Sunday as thousands gathered to celebrate the 46th annual PrideFest downtown.
Orioles drop series with 6-4 loss to Nats
Kyle Bradish walked five batters, and Washington’s Luis García Jr made the Birds pay in a 6-4 result at Camden Yards.
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
World Cup 2026: South Korea president calls for government investigation into team's early exit, head coach Hong Myung-bo resigns
Punk rock culture meets Portland’s love of soccer and women’s sports in Cherry Bombs FC’s first season
Portland’s new pre-professional women’s soccer team plays the last home game of the short season Sunday at Lents Park.
What science tells us about the algae bloom in the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool
Algal blooms are not maintenance failures requiring paint or treatment with hydrogen peroxide and nanobubbles. They are ecological warning signs.
Prescott, Parker present Cowboys with an 'iron sharpens iron' dynamic
Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has had issues solving two defensive schemes. With Christian Parker in the building, he may finally figure it out.
Bullseye! Enormous 'bow and arrow' galaxy is unlike anything radio astronomers have ever seen — Space photo of the week
Astronomers and citizen scientists have discovered RAD-BAARG, a radio galaxy with a striking bow-and-arrow shape, offering a rare direct view of a galaxy falling into the environment of a galaxy cluster.
South Korea's World Cup Exit Stuns Football, Entertainment Industries
South Koreas World Cup Exit Stuns Football, Entertainment Industries Hong Myung-bos squad finishes third in group; entertainment programs face awkward invitations amid lack of inspiring content
4 Takeaways From A Dramatic Ending Between Austria And Algeria In The Group J Finale
In what was the most dramatic ending to a group-stage match at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, Austria and Algeria played to a wild 3-3 draw at Kansas City Stadium on Saturday night.
An ending for the ages 🍿
An ending for the ages 🍿 What a match between Algeria and Austria.
Algeria vs Austria Extended Highlights
Check out the full game highlights between Algeria and Austria in the 2026 FIFA World Cup™. Announced by JP Dellacamera and Lori Lindsey.
2026 World Cup Group J: Wild Austria-Algeria tie locks Iran out of knockout rounds
Here's how everything shook out in Group J of the World Cup.
LGBTQ+ Pride parades set for Sunday in NYC and San Francisco
Pride Month celebrations are peaking with big parades in New York, San Francisco and some other cities on Sunday.
The new kings of the news business are in your inbox
Ryan Broderick has watched digital media companies flame out – beholden to a single source of funding or a fickle algorithm.
San Antonio Pride festival celebrates LGBTQ+ community, raises money for local nonprofits
Thousands of people were expected at Crockett Park on Saturday for the Pride Bigger Than Texas Festival, an eight-hour celebration of LGBTQ+ history, resilience and community support.
Tony Goldwyn recalls Hollywood 'people that were mean' changing their attitude toward him after this hit film
Tony Goldwyn said that Hollywood colleagues treated him as if he 'had the plague' when he was an unemployed actor, and those same 'mean' people changed their tune after this hit movie.
City of Palms new downtown parking program: How local business react to the change
The Fort Myers City Council recently approved a change impacting parking rates at all three of downtown Fort Myers' parking garages. As it stood, visitors would receive one hour of free parking followed by a hourly rate. Now, the change has made it so visitors are entitled to two free hours followed by a hourly rate. Local business owners and managers said it's a good idea giving visitors more time to bask under the royal palms and indulge in some shopping. But one general manager points out a problem that did not start yesterday, but years prior.
Omaha City Council agenda notes for June 30
Items on new apartments, pedestrian safety improvements, and the city’s food truck ordinance in Tuesday’s agenda.
Sky Sports: Everton are in the race to sign Serie A midfielder
Everton Transfer News: Mandela Keita Emerges as Midfield TargetEverton continue to search for midfield reinforcements this summer, with Sky Sports reporting that Parma’s Mandela Keita has emerged as...
"Playhouse For Predator": Epstein Used 'Fake' Science Office As Prison Escape
The Florida Science Foundation was presented as a legitimate organisation focused on supporting research. But a review by The Telegraph of more than 1,000 documents connected to the company painted a different picture.
After decades in the business, a Staten Island owner closes his dream restaurant
After decades building his dream in Annadale—and nearly losing it during COVID—the restaurateur steps back to savor family milestones.
Lawsuits filed against Pharr immigration-related business after filing unauthorized asylum claims
Two families have filed lawsuits against Pharr-based Ferrer Public Services, claiming the business filed unauthorized asylum applications that put their immigration status at risk.
A lack of funding, a glut of stigma: How Ohio LGBTQ+ health outcomes are impacted
Being able to access healthcare in general is a struggle for LGBTQ+ individuals, and with legislation in Ohio and elsewhere that banned gender-affirming care for minors, for example, a need for healthcare can often clash with the hesitation to seek help.
Marine biobanks: the science of 'stopping time' for an ecosystem under pressure
In labs around the world, the ocean is being kept in jars. Some of it is alive, bubbling in flasks, while some lies frozen in liquid nitrogen. These marine biobanks are collections of coral cells, algae,…
Trossard, De Bruyne score and Belgium defeats New Zealand 5-1 to advance at the World Cup
A flurry of late goals helped secure Belgium’s place in the knockout rounds, while New Zealand are heading home without a win.
New Zealand vs Belgium Highlights
Check out the full game highlights between New Zealand and Belgium in the 2026 FIFA World Cup™. Announced by Jacqui Oatley and Warren Barton.
Chicago teacher visiting every FBS stadium while bridging gap between LGBTQ+ community, sports world
A Chicago teacher is hard at work on his quest to visit every NCAA Division I Football Bowl Subdivision stadium in America, while also strengthening bonds between the sports world and the LGBTQ+ community.
Why Belgium’s prime minister isn’t cheering on the Red Devils - Live Updates
The World Cup isn’t easy for Bart De Wever.
Video shows suspect shattering windows at North Bay LGBTQ business
The owners of Townhouse Cocktail Lounge say several windows at the business were shattered by the person in the video. Vallejo police are investigating.
Netflix wants everyone in your house to have their own email login now
Netflix is quietly changing how shared accounts work, one profile at a time.
Horry County business evacuated after reported gas leak
A gas leak in Horry County has caused a business to evacuate.
Iran's Pride Match is about visibility, not politics
Iran’s World Cup match against Egypt has become a test not only of FIFA’s approach to inclusion but also of whether LGBTQ+ Iranians can claim visibility on one of the world’s biggest sporting stages.
Apple's OLED 'MacBook Ultra' Will Stick With M5 Pro and M5 Max Chips
Apple's upcoming high-end MacBook model featuring an OLED touchscreen display will use the company's current M5 Pro and M5 Max chips, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. The new, top-of-the-line device will launch "between late this year and early next year," Gurman said, adopting the existing high-end Apple silicon chips rather than next-generation M6 versions.
Music Legend Axes Shows After Onstage Health Scare
Lionel Richie was hospitalized on the opening night of his tour with Earth, Wind & Fire after feeling dizzy on-stage.
Business Owners Agree: The Road to Downtown Recovery Runs Through Facts, Not Nostalgia
State Street's commercial vacancy rate is lower today than it was before the pandemic. The highest vacancy rates remain on blocks that are open to vehicle traffic.
How Perizaad Zorabian Left Bollywood And Turned Her Family's Poultry Business Into A Rs 120 Crore Enterprise
Perizaad Zorabian was at the peak of her career when she decided to quit acting and turned her focus to her family's poultry business
Why Vrancken marks fresh start at data-driven Hearts
As Belgian head coach Wouter Vranckin takes charge at Hearts, it marks a strengthening of the club's data-driven vision, writes Thomas Duncan.
How the LaMelo Ball era in Charlotte came to its sudden end
WATCH: House Democratic leaders hold hearing on fair elections and voting rights
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Democratic lawmakers held a hearing Thursday on defending fair elections and voting rights.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.