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The Economic Case for Health
The Economic Case for Health shows how better health supports jobs, boosts productivity and drives growth — making it a smart investment for Kansas’ economy.
GoPro's Mission 1 offers 8K 60p video and interchangeable lenses
DJI is fighting back against rivals with a new line of cameras called Mission 1, designed to greatly improve video quality over the Hero 13 cameras.
Sony is Removing Many Popular Features From Its Free OTA TV Options Impacting Free ABC, CBS, FOX, & NBC
Sony has notified owners of its recent BRAVIA television models that significant changes to the built-in TV Guide for its OTA TV antenna users and related menu features will take effect starting in late May 2026. The update affects a range of premium sets released between 2023 and 2025, marking another instance of feature adjustments […]
Wild weekend could bring big changes to race for Governor
"It was a wild weekend in California politics," said Adjunct McGeorge School of Law Professor Chris Micheli.
A Look At Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Valuation After Its Mixed Earnings-Driven Share Price Move
Caesars Entertainment (CZR) is back in focus after its latest earnings report, where revenue topped analyst forecasts while adjusted operating income and EPS came in below expectations, yet the share price moved higher. See our latest analysis for Caesars Entertainment. The latest move higher in Caesars Entertainment's share price comes after its earnings release, with the stock showing a 13.54% year to date share price return while the 5 year total shareholder return is still down 69.86%...
Astros place shortstop Jeremy Peña, pitcher Tatsuya Imai on injured list amid 7-game losing streak
White Sox deal Lenyn Sosa to Toronto
The infielder is shipped out for a lottery ticket and loose change
Exclusive: Manulife Investment Management eyes Cellnex Swiss business, sources say
Spain's Cellnex is in talks to sell its stake in its Swiss unit to Toronto-listed Manulife Financial Corporation's investment management unit, according to two sources with knowledge of the situation.
Wall Street still loves streaming, but are its affections well placed?
While streaming continues to drive media stocks, especially around quarterly earnings, it's not clear when it will start driving profits for smaller players.
Prediction markets have exploded. What can they tell us about Oregon’s hottest primary race?
The state of the Republican gubernatorial primary has been hard to divine, but gamblers have thoughts.
Opinion: I was recruited to play a sport here, but first, my family had to pay for it
It was a hot summer day in east Long Island. Hundreds of kids and parents from across the country piled into a sports complex consisting of four adjacent turf baseball fields. The gates were manned by a brigade of staff who were commandeering the large crowd. “Are these credentials right?” they asked as they showed...
Grinnell College sports social media teams bring the game online
DJ Damazo, assistant men’s basketball coach, said that about three years ago, the basketball team didn’t have a social media page at all. “I thought we were missing out on a chance to market our program to other students at Grinnell and probably, more importantly, like recruits,” Damazo said. Damazo decided to find students to...
Radiology Partners reportedly eyeing international expansion
America’s largest radiology group has purportedly considered making a bid to buy its Australian counterpart, which tallied over $176 million in adjusted earnings last year.
Masters 2026: Odds for every winner since 1985
The longest odds of any Masters winner since 1985 are 150-1, with Trevor Immelman in 2008 and Larry Mize in 1987 pulling off the feat.
How Golden Entertainment (GDEN) Narratives Are Shifting As Analysts Recut Targets And Takeover Nears
Golden Entertainment’s fair value estimate has been nudged from US$30.50 to US$30.00 per share, a small adjustment that still keeps the story focused around a US$30 mark. Some analysts view this US$0.50 trim as an incremental shift that reflects updated valuation inputs rather than a major change in the underlying outlook, while more cautious voices see it as a signal of reduced conviction at recent prices. As you read on, you will see how this updated target fits into the evolving analyst...
Illinois Valley Community College’s SciFest returns April 17 with 100+ hands-on science experiments
Illinois Valley Community College will host its annual SciFest on April 17 at 7 p.m. in the College Gymnasium, featuring more than 100 interactive science demonstrations and experiments.
Fever reportedly re-sign Sophie Cunningham to 1-year contract
2026 Cubs Heroes and Goats: Game 14
The Cubs come from behind, only to lose 4-3 in extra innings.
Opinion: Science is recognizing the protective effects of religion
A new study suggests that religion and spirituality could be a component in preventing and recovering from addiction
Alexander Ovechkin receives standing ovation from rival Penguins crowd in potential last game in Pittsburgh
Ways the Golden Knights Can Clinch a Playoff Berth Tonight
The Vegas Golden Knights enter Saturday with a long-awaited opportunity to clinch a playoff berth, capping a season defined several […]
Are the Bills better after offseason additions and departures?
The Bills made some big moves, including trading for DJ Moore and signing Bradley Chubb. Is Buffalo’s roster improved?
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Where to Watch Boston Red Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Live Stream, TV Channel for Saturday, April 11, 2026
The Red Sox and Cardinals continue their series in St. Louis on Saturday.
Red Sea Military Hub Djibouti’s President Extends 27-Year Rule
Djiboutian President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh won elections by a landslide, extending his 27-year rule of the strategically located nation that’s an international military and maritime hub.
Microsoft starts removing unnecessary Copilot buttons in Windows 11
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Fitch cuts FS KKR Capital rating to junk territory as asset quality weakens
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‘I don’t see any new faces’: Rochester Road construction changes daily life for small businesses in Troy
Some businesses along Rochester Road in Troy say ongoing roadwork is cutting into their bottom line.
How The Mets Are Adjusting To Life Without Juan Soto
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New Trinity Health Livingston hospital set to open in April
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NHL Playoff Picture 2026: Standings & Stanley Cup Bracket
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Virginia Democrats Go All-In on Gerrymandering (With Some Regrets)
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China's car sales extend declines in March
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Teen takeover concerns grow in Columbus as business tightens security
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Sony Pictures Entertainment Lays Off Hundreds of Employees in Restructuring
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Science without a script | CWRU Newsroom | Case Western Reserve University
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Large Hadron Collider gives scientists their best look yet at conditions right after the Big Bang
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Using adjusted breakout age to help you evaluate wide receivers in the 2026 NFL Draft for fantasy football
Week 11 and First Adjournment of the 2026 Session
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Veterinary college nearly doubles National Institutes of Health funding, climbs to No. 13 nationally
Strategic investment in faculty, infrastructure, and research culture produced the Virginia-Maryland College of Veterinary Medicine's strongest year of federal funding on record.
Movies and TV shows casting across the US
Backstage compiled a list of movies and TV shows casting across the US.
Direct Marketing Solutions to lay off Portland workers
PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) — Another employer is permanently shuttering its Portland location and laying off employees. Direct Marketing Solutions will close its Portland production facility and lay off 106 employees, according to a worker adjustment notice filed Monday. The company’s headquarters, which are also in Portland, will remain open and continue to employ 50 marketing […]
Live Results: Georgia special election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene
Republican Clay Fuller will try to close the deal with Georgia voters on Tuesday to succeed Marjorie Taylor Greene in Congress, while Democrat Shawn Harris seeks an upset.
'Implementation cycle': Jay Collins says homestead property tax relief may be phased in over years
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Minneapolis video refutes ICE account of shooting
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SEC football recruiting rankings after talented OL commits to Georgia
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Health insurers rise after US lifts 2027 Medicare Advantage payment rates
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Google Photos finally adds a feature users have been demanding for years
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MNUFC Provides an Update Regarding the Health of James Rodríguez
James discharged from hospital, returned to training
Business of the Week: AP Entertainment
BROOME COUNTY, N.Y. (WIVT/WBGH) -AP Entertainment is The Greater Binghamton Chamber Business of the Week. The local DJ company focuses on special events, from weddings to parties to fundraisers. It al...
Trump administration finalizes better-than-feared Medicare Advantage payment rate in boost to health insurers
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Packers host DT Kaleb Proctor for pre-draft visit
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Female DJ from Omaha breaks down barriers in entertainment space once reserved for men
An Omaha native has followed her adventurous spirit to become a pioneering, enterprising DJ and hype girl in Miami and beyond. Branding herself DJ ReRe, this vivacious, visionary millennial thrives in a male-dominated field through her for-profit ReMixed Events that supply DJ and concierge services for elite weddings, corporate events, parties, fashion shows, cruises and […]
Ravens' 56-man roster as off-season workouts begin
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Wildcat Check-in Week highlights campus mental health support
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Stephen Miller Is Still Pursuing His Immigration Agenda, but More Quietly
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Early morning fire leaves business a ‘total loss’
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Nebraska softball sweeps Rutgers in Saturday doubleheader
Nebraska played host to Rutgers on Saturday in a conference doubleheader. The Huskers swept the day, defeating the Scarlet Knights 8-0 and 5-3.
Commanders to host USC star ahead of 2026 NFL Draft
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Democrats eye 2028 for bigger health care push
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'We couldn't adjust to it': How Michigan exposed Arizona's biggest weakness in Final Four blowout
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NBA says Giannis Antetokounmpo declined to scrimmage 3-on-3 with Bucks as part of return-to-play protocol as investigation continues
NBA says Giannis Antetokounmpo declined to scrimmage 3-on-3 with Bucks as part of return-to-play protocol as investigation continues
Fact check: New Trump video surfaces amid health concerns; ‘DJT released from hospital’
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What is POTS, the disorder behind Fidji Simo's leave from OpenAI
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Opinion: The business case for adjusting school funding for inflation and passing Prop 9
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Bucks reportedly told NBA investigators that Giannis Antetokounmpo declined to scrimmage 3-on-3 as part of return-to-play protocol
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Giannis Antetokounmpo questions relationship with Bucks as NBA investigates team's statements about his health
Why are people allowed to bet on politics? | California Politics 360
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Cincinnati business grows with new restaurant at Factory 52’s Gatherall
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Oregon sues to challenge Trump’s executive order restricting mail-in voting
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NFL executives criticize Bills trading for Bears WR DJ Moore
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Cleveland Browns NFL Draft Profile: QB Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt
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Another blow to blue-state business hubs
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Detroit Pistons final record prediction over last six games
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A Look At Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) Valuation As Concerts Hit Records And Global Expansion Accelerates
Why Live Nation’s 2025 milestones have investors’ attention Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) is back in focus after reporting record adjusted operating income in its Concerts segment for 2025, hosting 159 million fans and outlining new venue openings across Latin America, Europe, and the U.S. See our latest analysis for Live Nation Entertainment. Live Nation’s latest results arrive after a 7.11% 90 day share price return and a 13.35% 1 year total shareholder return, which build on a very large...
Trump Told Me All His Shady Business Secrets: Professor
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Science center prepares for a month full of events after Artemis II launch
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Microsoft Warns of WhatsApp-Delivered VBS Malware Hijacking Windows via UAC Bypass
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Apple Adjusts Studio Display XDR Pricing Weeks After Launch
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Georgia lawmakers tackle childhood literacy as session nears end
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Business sentiments in Japan improving despite Iran worries
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Military Health Care in Korea: What You Should Know
Moving to Korea is an exciting assignment filled with new opportunities, experiences, and adjustments. One of the first questions many arriving service...
The Science Museum: Creating a catapult out of household objects
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Vertex AI Vulnerability Exposes Google Cloud Data and Private Artifacts
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Military Health Care in Korea: What You Should Know
Moving to Korea is an exciting assignment filled with new opportunities, experiences, and adjustments. One of the first questions many arriving service members and families ask is simple: How does health care work overseas? The good news is that U.S. military beneficiaries stationed on the Korean Peninsula have access to a comprehensive health care system that combines American military medicine with one of the most advanced civilian health networks in the world. Through Military Treatment Facilities (MTFs) operated by the Army, Air Force, and Navy -- along with TRICARE Overseas host nation providers and hospitals -- patients receive coordinated, high-quality care designed to support readiness while keeping families healthy throughout their tour. Here’s what to expect when receiving care in Korea.
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