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Oregon lands two-sport star Achilles Reyna
Seattle (Wash.) Rainier Beach edge Achilles Reyna committed to Oregon after his official visit to Eugene...
We can create the future of science right now
Paul Litvak is the founder and Executive Director of the Robyn Dawes Institute and a Visiting Scholar at UC Berkeley. He has a PhD in Behavioral Decision Research from Carnegie Mellon where he studied emotions and the sunk cost bias. Over 15 years in industry, he solved a wide range of challenging technical problems. At Meta he created models optimizing the ad review process. At Google he ran experiments to measure social influence. At Airbnb, he was a product manager leading machine learning teams optimizing search ranking and price suggestions. He also co-founded and led product at Rhythmic Health, a venture-backed biosensing startup, creating an accurate low cost system using a color changing strip and a smart phone to measure salivary lactate. The bottleneck At this point, it is uncontroversial to say that science needs to stop using the PDF article as the unit of knowledge and currency. The unbearable slowness of scientific publishing, the profit motive and margins: I’m not saying anything new. The PDF also sucks because it’s hard to extract structured information, which makes it hard to do evidence synthesis. As a result, we do much less evidence synthesis than is needed. And evidence synthesis ultimately undergirds most policy and medical decision-making. I can see second-by-second real-time odds for any sporting or newsworthy event, but a school board can’t see the best evidence on whether their 8th graders should be taught algebra. As a society, we don’t treat this as an important problem. Again, not controversial. Not only is the problem well understood, but the solution has already been laid out. What we need is AI-assisted living evidence synthesis - (1) an open knowledge graph of atomic claims, (2) claims linked to evidence, (3) assessment and synthesis of each piece of evidence, and (4) continuous updating with new data. What few realize (yet) is that the technical capacity to build this vision for a significant portion of science already exists. Not only that, scientists and startup teams are already building many of these components. I know this because I’ve been surveying the space and talking to many of the builders. There are some missing pieces: for example, evaluations of how well some of the components work. But at this point, most of what’s missing is a fully end-to-end working integration of all of these parts. In the rest of this essay, I’m going to lay out all the parts of a working living evidence layer for science and who is working on them, and propose concrete next steps for building this system. What’s now possible The diagram above outlines the components of a living evidence synthesis platform, including some of the teams working on each component1. Scientific PDFs are processed into claims with associated evidence. The evidence is subjected to a forensic audit, methodological evaluation and robustness and reproducibility checks. Finally it’s given a weight in a continuously updating synthesis. What follows is a description and status of each component and a few of the teams working on them. Document understanding The first thing you need to be able to do is turn an article into structured data. Mostly that means parsing PDFs. There are often multicolumn layouts that confuse non-specialized PDF to text processing libraries. For scientific papers, there is the added complexity of parsing formulas and tables and figures. This is a really hot area - there are startups offering APIs, and it seems like a new open source package gets posted to Github every few weeks. What follows isn’t exhaustive. A package called GROBID was the state of the art for a while, they didn’t update their package for nearly two years until very recently. In the meantime reducto.ai released an AI powered PDF extraction API, PaddleOCR became popular, IBM released a model called Docling, and both Mistral and Gemini created models and libraries. I also know of at least one other well-funded psychology research group working on a paper parser. By contrast, there are few open evals in this space, with no extensive evals for complex table comprehension in particular. Nonetheless, I’m confident this will be a solved problem soon, given the combination of LLM advances and developer interest. Hypothesis level extraction There has been increasing interest in comprehending the extracted text of papers and linking information to evidence for each hypothesis. A lot of work has already been done. Trialstreamer (Marshall et al. 2020) and RobotReviewer LIVE (Marshall et al. 2023) demonstrated automated extraction of trial population, intervention, and outcome at scale on clinical RCTs. PaperQA2 (Skarlinski et al. 2024) and Ai2 ScholarQA (2024) extended this to retrieval-augmented question answering with citation grounding. Elicit, Consensus, and SciSpace operationalized claim-level extraction for end users. OpenEval (Booeshaghi et al. 2026) is the most recent and most ambitious: 1.96 million atomic claims extracted from 16,087 eLife manuscripts using Claude Sonnet 4.5, grouped into ~299,000 results, with LLM evaluations showing 81% agreement with human peer review on a 2,487-paper subset. None of these solutions link claims to test-statistics, as you would need to evaluate randomized controlled trials. This is why I built the evidence.guide API - to extract hypotheses and associated test statistics from behavioral science papers. The best public eval of this kind of extraction I’m aware of comes from the recent SCORE project - they had humans code thousands of psychology papers to extract their claims by hand. It would be extremely helpful to the world if all scientific PDFs were available as structured open data. I’ve been working to make this happen, both directly at Berkeley and through coordination with large entities I can’t yet speak of; as hard as it is to do, I think it’s possible2. Forensic audit A lot of work has been done on forensic audit, but some gaps remain. Of course, for biology papers that rely on images for evidence, there are a variety of tools (notably Proofig and ImageTwin) to spot anomalies. These are still well short of what sleuths like Elizabeth Bik can do on her own, but these tools are constant companions among fraud analysts. There’s someone working on auditing Excel files for anomalies, and a number of teams are automating numerical checks like GRIM and SPRITE, including Scrutiny project, the INSPECT-SR team as well as statcheck. The regcheck team is building a way to use AI to compare preregistrations to analyses in papers, to ensure there aren’t significant deviations. Nonetheless, there are many other kinds of anomalies to screen for, both public and less publicly known. And there are no formal evals for anomaly detection that I’m aware of. Still, there’s a lot to draw from in this space and I’m pretty certain we will be able to scan papers for most kinds of obvious anomalies in the near future. Methodological review This area has been white hot, though I fear for many of the startups in this space, because this capability may become commoditized. There are at least six different AI peer review companies, including Refine.ink, Reviewer3, ReviewerZero.ai, Q.E.D. Science, Paper Wizard, and Isitcredible. Coarse (a pun on refine) was also recently created as an open source alternative. These systems provide qualitative feedback on the content of papers, spotting methodological weaknesses and mathematical errors. They seem to work pretty well, and many academics report bitterly that they exceed the average quality of typical peer reviewers. But there are few evals here either. What evals exist so far involve using LLM-as-judge (circularity problems abound) or comparing against human reviews of questionable quality. What you’d ideally want is an eval that measures capturing known errors in papers3. Reproducibility and robustness Another active area has been using AI agents to automate computational reproducibility4 and robustness5 checks in papers that report numerical results. For more recent papers where data and code are available, AI agents can see whether they can re-run the analyses and produce the numbers reported in the published paper. In addition to a handful of individual academics who have been experimenting using Claude Code for this, the Institute for Replication is a leading group working on building an end to end system. The evals related to this problem are the most mature, with CORE-Bench (Siegel, Kapoor, Narayanan 2024) and PaperBench (OpenAI 2025) available to benchmark agents on this task. There is also work on getting AI agents to test alternative ways of analyzing the data to ensure the results are robust to small analytic design choices. Synthesis This is the most underdeveloped area where significant investment is required. Although some automated evidence synthesis systems exist — for example, otto-sr is building an AI agent to write systematic reviews — none of these incorporate the full range of paper level signals to weight evidence appropriately. Nor is there anything like an eval or a gold standard for a good systematic review. Arguably Cochrane reviews are the closest we have to gold standard human systematic reviews, though I’ve heard academics in the know complain about their uneven quality. A key question for a synthesis platform is how to weight anomalies and methodological issues in assessing the quality of a piece of evidence. This is an unsolved problem and one I’m very keen to work on. Continuous updating There are many pieces of basic infrastructure available for monitoring for new research and initiating updates. OpenAlex is the current open citation graph. Retraction Watch integrated into Crossref in October 2023. Scite tracks how citations support, contrast, or mention prior claims. The Living Evidence Network demonstrated continuous-update workflows in clinical guidelines. Engineering this is a relatively straightforward task. When you look over this technical architecture and all the progress being made, it’s hard not to be optimistic that a living guide to scientific evidence will be built. The stakeholders are ready The social infrastructure for this is starting to coalesce — it’s not just a pie in the sky academic exercise to imagine this coming into existence. Institutions like the Center for Open Science, the Institute for Replication, the INSPECT-SR, the Living Evidence Network and more are all working on scaling work to improve research quality. Funders are also aligned. The Sloan Foundation has funded living evidence work through COS. Coefficient Giving supports the Institute for Replication and COS. The Astera Institute and the Institute for Progress have shown interest in this space. NIH has established an Office for Replication and Reproducibility. Although there are (very unfortunately) serious headwinds in science funding generally, there is an active group of funders interested in metascience. A brief word about what I’ve been doing at RDI. First, as a Visiting Scholar at Berkeley I’ve been actively figuring out how a non-profit and a public university can conduct and make public the results of large-scale academic article data mining. With some of the money I raised from donors, I commissioned a legal analysis of recent case law and publisher text data mining (TDM) agreements in order to understand whether a massive open data mining of academic articles is possible (with caveats, it is). I’ve also been working to bring together stakeholders in this space, and identify gaps. I’ve also been doing some software development in this space, with more to come. A pilot proposal The assumption undergirding all of this is that an AI, given all this information, would make the right judgment about a scientific claim with lots of conflicting evidence, weighing all the factors appropriately. That’s the hypothesis we need to test. Randomized control trial research is the best place to focus on first. RCTs are used to make many of the important decisions in society - from medical trials to public policy changes. And they use a relatively uniform set of inferential statistics with lots of known and available diagnostics. Behavioral science experiments, within the broader realm of RCTs, should be first used as a testbed whose results can be generalized. Because behavioral science is at the vanguard of open science practices, replications abound (there are thousands of them) to serve as ground truth training data. Key Hypothesis Therefore the pilot would test, in behavioral RCTs that have been replicated, whether the quality of evidence for a claim can be used to accurately predict whether that claim will replicate. Secondary Hypotheses Compared to claims that replicated, non-replicated claims demonstrate a greater share of forensic anomalies in their source literatures. Hypothesis level claim and statistic extraction is accurate enough to scale living evidence without onerous human review costs. Replication prediction is more accurate than prediction markets6 or journal prestige. If all the different quality signals we gather do accurately predict which studies will replicate, then we can use that model to score evidence to power the living evidence layer. Why this is informative regardless of outcome If the pilot succeeds, the architecture extends to medical RCTs (where Living Evidence already operates and integration is mostly about claim representation), then to slices of basic biology with stable replication structure. If it fails, the field learns which quality signals are load-bearing and which ones metascience has oversold. Either result is a contribution to knowing what the literature supports. Implications for funders Because this burgeoning ecosystem of builders already exists, a well-informed philanthropic or government funder could play a crucial catalyzing role in bringing this future about. They could play at least three roles: creating open structured datasets, publishing open benchmarks and incentivizing the solving of key technical challenges. First, open archives of papers that the government maintains, like PubMed, could be turned into structured data amenable to large scale metascience and claim aggregation. I know the US government already has an interest in doing this, though some key open questions remain unanswered. How do you determine the best models and systems for accurately extracting information from papers? How can you establish a robust way to allow researchers to flag errors and correct them? And finally, how do you create a legal regime in working with publishers to maximize the scope of available papers? For the latter, a university or a private philanthropy may be better positioned to make structured data publicly available under journal subscription terms or fair use. Philanthropists or government funders could also coordinate to create or commission benchmarks that evaluate whether important problems have been solved. For example, an open benchmark for claim extraction from a range of different scientific article types would be extremely helpful. Ensuring the underlying data are accurate is vital for creating these evaluations. I’ve discussed opportunistically using various human-created datasets for this purpose, but a consistent problem is that errors in human data make it difficult for them to serve as a gold standard. Finally, with structured data and benchmarks available, the government or private philanthropy could use them to incentivize groups to develop machine learning systems that meet these benchmarks. Prizes are one potentially valuable tool for this. For example, you could establish a prize for a system that accurately updates a living meta-analysis for a small set of claims. Prizes are particularly useful as signals of problem importance, and can help create vibrant ecosystems of public and private research—see, for example the role the government played in kickstarting the current work on nuclear fusion. Conclusion The drawbacks of the current scientific publishing system are known. Scientists agree, metascientists agree, philanthropists agree: the published PDF plus citation graph isn’t the right substrate for maintaining a representation of the evidence base in science. The pieces needed to build the alternative either already exist or are rapidly taking shape. The community is forming around exactly this problem, with concrete partnerships and shared infrastructure. A pilot should start on behavioral science RCTs because that’s the slice of empirical science most amenable to legibility, where replication ground truth is richest, and where the failure modes are best documented. What’s been missing is the galvanizing mission to assemble these pieces into something that works. That’s what I’m proposing to build. *** 1 I have a broader field map that I’ll release publicly soon. This is me, building in public! 2 If this is something that you are excited about, please reach out and talk to me. 3 More on this very soon too! 4 This tests whether, given the code and the data, you can get the same statistics as reported in the published paper. 5 This tests whether the results are the same as a paper’s given alternative analytical decisions in conducting the analysis (like outlier omission). Closely related is the idea of a “multiverse” where you come up with many different ways of answering the same underlying research question with the same data, and test whether the results hold in all those alternative methods. There’s been work on the latter as well. 6 Some of the replications, e.g. those from the SCORE project, had paired the experiments with forecasts from prediction markets. So we get to look at this for free.
Apple Announces macOS Golden Gate
Apple today announced that macOS 27 is named macOS Golden Gate. macOS Golden Gate has some Liquid Glass design changes. For example, apps now have a unified toolbar at the top, and the sidebar now expands to the edge of the window. Much like Mac OS X Snow Leopard in 2009, Apple said it focused on improving macOS's performance and dozens of underlying technologies.
Giants Put Together 10th-Inning Rally, Edge Cubs 2-1
San Francisco Giants bookmark single runs in the first and 10th inning as they beat Chicago Cubs.
BUSINESS MONDAY: Spotlight on Torrico Electric and Grenergy Solar—vertically integrated for holistic design, install, and service
Founded in 1985, the family business combines decades of electrical expertise with a growing focus on renewable energy and backup power systems.
3-star defensive end pledges to Arkansas
Defensive end Keith Richmond was won over by Arkansas after his official visit and pledged to the Razorbacks.
Ingredion is in advanced talks to acquire Tate & Lyle for $3.6B
Ingredion Inc. is in advanced talks to acquire Tate & Lyle Plc in a deal valued at £2.7 billion ($3.6 billion), people with knowledge of the matter said, as another famous brand prepares to leaves the London stock market.
Spencer Pratt's runner-up edge over Democrat Raman down to 1%, few thousand ballots
Spencer Pratt's lead over Nithya Raman in the L.A. mayoral race has slimmed to just 1% as late ballot counting continues days after election day.
Reading, writing, business: Students put knowledge to test with metro Atlanta food truck
Trump Says Iran Has Made a ‘Big’ Nuclear Promise. It Isn’t New.
President Trump’s boasts of securing a commitment from Iranian leaders not to develop a nuclear weapon have puzzled nuclear experts who note that Tehran has made that pledge for more than 50 years.
Recruiting update (May 30-June 6)
From Saturday, May 30, to Saturday, June 6, the recruiting for class of 2027 has increased in size from seven to 14. Drew Aagesen Hailing from Goodrich, Michigan, Drew Aagesen pledged his commitment to the Cyclones on May 30. Though he was a versatile standout on both sides of the ball in high school, Iowa […]
Edgewood's Eva Akpandja wins second straight shotput State Title
LA CROSSE, Wis. --- Edgewood High School junior Eva Akpandja saved her best for last. The Crusader star won the D2 Girls shotput state championship on her final launch, landing
4-star WR Demare Dezeurn decommits from Oklahoma
Four-star Westlake (Calif.) wide receiver Demare Dezeurn has decommitted from Oklahoma, he tells Rivals. Dezeurn had been pledged to the Sooners since September, when he chose them over offers from USC, Nebraska, Michigan, Texas Tech and a host of other programs. However, other schools have remained in contact with him since that initial commitment, pushing […]
Test your pop culture: From Hollywood to the Heartland
Test your knowledge of entertainment with this quiz on celebrities, trends and headline-making moments. Featured this week: a red-hot new romance, runway-worthy bikini moments, candid Hollywood reflec...
Car smashes into business in Volusia County
A car slammed into the lobby of a Little Caesars Pizza in Edgewater, leaving the business heavily damaged but sparing employees and customers from injury.
Monster Hunter Wilds confirmed for Nintendo Switch 2
After it was heavily rumored for the platform, Monster Hunter Wilds has finally been confirmed for Nintendo Switch 2. A release date will be given later. Many fans thought that Capcom was tinkering with a port following a datamine. However, this is the first time a port has been officially acknowledged. Monster Hunter Wilds initially launched last year. Here’s an...
Notre Dame 2026 Player Profile: Defensive End Keon Keeley
After a detour through Alabama, the former elite recruit Keon Keeley finally arrives at Notre Dame. Can the powerful edge rusher refine his raw technique to anchor the Irish defense?
2027 NFL Draft Summer Scouting Report: Elijah Rushing, edge, Oregon
Elijah Rushing arrived at Oregon as one of the nation's top recruits, but less than 100 defensive snaps have left evaluators searching for answers.
Test your pop culture: From Hollywood to the Heartland
Test your knowledge of entertainment with this quiz on celebrities, trends and headline-making moments. Featured this week: a red-hot new romance, runway-worthy bikini moments, candid Hollywood reflections and a smashed piano that stole the show.
Local health districts share firearm safety rips for National Gun Violence Awareness Day
In acknowledgement of National Gun Violence Awareness Day on June 5, the Richmond and Henrico Health Districts (RHHD) have shared several safety tips.
The NFL's edge rusher market has exploded. What does it mean for the Steelers and T.J. Watt?
To pay or not to pay? That is the question NFL teams are facing with the league’s top edge rushers. In recent years, no market has exploded in the...
How ASUS Is Bringing AI into Healthcare Workflows
Move from pilot to production with ASUS AI Hub and NVIDIA NemoClaw. Deploy scalable, secure on-premises enterprise Agentic AI with robust data governance and custom knowledge RAG workflows.
LeBron James welcomes new Rams star edge rusher Myles Garrett
LeBron James posted a hearty welcome on social media to new Rams star Myles Garrett.
Rockford summer entertainment series ‘Music on the Mall’ returns to Edgebrook
The sound of music will soon fill Edgebrook with the return of Music on the Mall.
Rockford summer entertainment series ‘Music on the Mall’ returns to Edgebrook
From 6:30p.m. to 8:30, Friday, June 5, the summer concert series returns to Edgebrook’s Center Court where it will run every Friday through August 28.
Training TikTok creators in mental health communication improves audiences’ mental health knowledge, competencies | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
Providing training in mental health communication to social media content creators can help improve their audiences’ abilities to gather and understand mental health knowledge as well as boost their emotional support skills, according to a new study.
Melinda French Gates pledges $215M to advance women’s health worldwide
Melinda French Gates will expand her giving to improve women’s health globally, pledging another $215 million.
Melinda Gates pledges another $215 million to improve women's health around the world
In the past two years, the philanthropist's donations for women's health have exceeded $600 million.
Run Google's Gemini LLMs right on your Mac with the new AI Edge Gallery
Google has released its AI Edge Gallery app on the Mac for the first time, allowing AI fans to run its Gemini large language models (LLMs) locally, without the need for an internet connection.
This Week in Sports Trivia: June 4, 2026
How closely were you following the sports news this week? Find out and test your knowledge by taking The Athletic's weekly quiz.
Minjae and South Korea win World Cup warm-up
The South Korean national team have won their final warm-up ahead of the 2026 World Cup. In the erarly hours of 4 June, at BYU South Field in Provo, Utah, coach Hong Myung-bo’s side edged a 1-0 win ...
Myles Garrett shows ultimate respect to Commanders' Laremy Tunsil
Laremy Tunsil has performed well against Myles Garrett, something the new Rams star acknowledges.
Is the ‘Charlotte Way’ cracking? Business leaders worry about new direction
For decades, the so-called Charlotte Way has meant collegial government, deference to business leaders and a shared belief that growth is good for a world-class city. Now, after several less business-friendly votes by a new City Council, some leaders worry the Charlotte Way is cracking. Tony Mecia of the Charlotte Ledger joined WFAE Executive Editor Ely Portillo for our weekly segment BizWorthy.
Google AI Edge Gallery launches to macOS
In addition to Google AI Edge Gallery, the company also released the Gemma 4 12B model and the Google AI Edge Eloquent dictation app for the Mac.
Kalshi wants small businesses to hedge like Wall Street. A NYC bar is trying it with Knicks promotion
A local bar on the Upper East Side is the first small business to hedge with Kalshi over a Knicks game on Wednesday.
Google's new open source Gemma 4 12B analyzes audio, video — and runs entirely locally on a typical 16GB enterprise laptop
For enterprise leaders aiming to decentralize their AI workloads, Gemma 4 12B offers a rare combination of edge-friendly efficiency and frontier-class reasoning.
May returns for hedge funds like Millennium and Balyasny
Big-name hedge funds mostly did well in May when equity markets surged.
Report: Cardinals will not trade Josh Sweat
Speculation about edge rusher Josh Sweat's future with the Cardinals has picked up over the course of his absence from the team's offseason program, but a report on Wednesday tosses some cold water on thoughts of a trade.
Ontario Science Centre Celebrates National Indigenous History Month with Free Family-Friendly Event June 6
The Ontario Science Centre is proud to honour National Indigenous History Month with a free, family-friendly, event Indigenous Celebration 2026. Developed in collaboration with Indigenous artists, knowledge keepers and organizations, the community-led event will take place on Saturday, June 6 from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. at Evergreen Brick Works.
Cowboys Headlines: Trade with Steelers a possibility? Edge rusher news
The latest Cowboys news and news around the NFL.
Where does Derick Hall's salary rank among EDGEs after extension?
Where does Derick Hall's salary with the Seattle Seahawks rank among EDGEs after extension?
SFA business students gain global edge through immersive study abroad tour of Spain and Portugal
NACOGDOCHES, Texas –– Nearly 50 students from Stephen F. Austin State University’s Nelson Rusche College of Business participated in an intensive, faculty-led study abroad program in Spain and Portugal May 10-21.Led by Dr. Matthew Lindsey, chair of the Department of Management and Marketing, and Dr. Mikhail Kouliavtsev, chair of the Department of Economics and Finance, the experiential learning trip bridged classroom business theory with real-world international operations across the Iberian Peninsula.
Small Business Sales Edge Upward in May as Foot Traffic Continues to Slow, Fiserv Data Shows
Fiserv Small Business Index remains steady at 144; year-over-year sales grew +0.7% MILWAUKEE, June 03, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Fiserv, Inc. (NASDAQ: FISV), a leading global provider of payments and financial services technology, has published the Fiserv Small Business Index for May 2026,
Centrist Democrats launch new pledge: ‘We are capitalist, not socialist’
A pair of Democratic House members who won Republican-held seats want others to sign a vow for moderate policies.
Kevin Hassett says US seeing business, stock market ‘boom’
Larry Kudlow highlights booming U.S. business, strong JOLTS numbers, and the S&P 500's 27% growth in the last year, pressing National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett to acknowledge the positive economic data.
Dodgers Edge Diamondbacks in Narrow Win
The Los Angeles Dodgers fought off an Arizona Diamondbacks comeback attempt, winning the second game of their series, 6-5.
Iowa GOP Senate candidate Ashley Hinson says prolonged Iran war could become a "political liability"
Iowa GOP Senate candidate Rep. Ashley Hinson acknowledged the U.S.-Iran conflict could become a "political liability" if it stretches beyond the next few weeks, according to audio obtained by CBS News.
148 Michigan politicians sign ‘no utility money’ pledge
148 Michigan politicians pledge to refuse utility campaign donations as frustration grows over DTE and Consumers Energy's political influence.
Nick Herbig agrees to four-year extension with Steelers
Nick Herbig is in the final year of his rookie deal, but the edge rusher won't be hitting free agency in 2027.
Trump signs executive order to vet top AI models for national security risks
The move comes less than two weeks after Trump postponed a White House ceremony over concerns that a similar policy could dull America's edge on AI technology
Trump signs executive order to vet top AI models for national security risks
The move comes less than two weeks after Trump postponed a White House ceremony over concerns that a similar policy could dull America's edge on AI technology
Cable manufacturer eyes $100M expansion at Indianapolis facility
Milan-based Prysmian Cables & Systems USA LLC plans to build a roughly 143,500-square-foot addition to its existing 52,000-square-foot facility along Rockville Road on the western edge of Marion County.
Motorola Edge (2026) for US and Canada unveiled with smaller 6.3" display
The 2024 and 2025 models had 6.6" and 6.7" displays, respectively. The new model has a 50MP 1/1.56" main camera and a 10MP 3x telephoto module.
How Science Works
The 2nd Weather and Climate Livestream is now underway. It is organized by a group of early-career researchers concerned about declining funding for the field and eager to demonstrate how weather and climate research makes a difference in our lives. Last year’s event was a great success, drawing terrific press coverage including a piece in the NY Times. This year features a strong lineup of talks aimed at a general audience — I highly recommend tuning in. Share I gave a talk yesterday about How Science Works in Three Steps. You can see the short presentation here (I’ve appended a transcript below): And please tune into the livestream here. It runs through tomorrow at 6 pm ET. Thanks for reading The Climate Brink! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Subscribe Cleaned up transcript: Thank you, and thanks to everyone tuning in. I want to talk about something I think a lot of people don’t really understand: how science actually works. Arguments over any scientific topic — climate change, vaccines, you name it — revolve around competing claims. For climate change, the claims are: Is the Earth warming? Are humans to blame? What will the impacts be? Over the last 150 years, the scientific community has developed a remarkably robust method for sorting out which claims are true and which aren’t. That method is what I want to walk through. So how does science generate knowledge? If you ask a high schooler, they’ll give you the version they learned in ninth grade: an individual scientist forms a hypothesis, runs an experiment, and draws a conclusion. That’s more or less what happens at the individual level, though in practice it’s more iterative — you design, test, and refine all at once, landing on a slightly different idea each time until you reach a conclusion about whatever hypothesis you’ve ended up with. But this isn’t science. It’s only step one. Any individual scientist can make mistakes — scientists are human. Maybe there’s a bug in the code, maybe there’s an error in the experiment. Just because someone ran an experiment and reached a conclusion doesn’t mean it’s right, and scientists don’t treat a single result as settled truth. Step two is peer review, the first layer of quality control. The scientist writes up what they did and submits it to a journal, which sends the paper to other experts in the field. Those experts judge whether the methods are sound, whether it properly references prior work, and whether the conclusions actually follow from the data. Ask any scientist and they’ll tell you peer review is miserable — the comments come back brutal, often harsh, and you have to revise and resubmit, sometimes multiple times, before an editor finally accepts the paper. Peer review catches an immense amount of bad science, but it can’t catch all of it. Reviewers get sloppy or overworked, they miss obvious mistakes, and they can’t catch hidden errors — a bug in the code, a misread instrument. So a peer-reviewed paper making it into a journal doesn’t mean the paper is right. Nobody treats a single paper as the final word. That’s where step three comes in: the crucible of science. Important results get retested by the broader community. If you publish something interesting, it gets dissected. Sometimes people try to reproduce your work directly but more often they test its implications. If someone claims X is true, and that implies that Y is also true, then scientists will go check Y. If a claim survives this gauntlet long enough, it becomes accepted. That’s how we generate knowledge. Let me give an example: the ozone hole. In 1985 — and I doubt many people watching were around then, but I remember it well — Joe Farman and his colleagues published observations from Antarctica showing that a huge chunk of ozone was disappearing every year. This was shocking because most atmospheric chemists had expected ozone loss to occur at mid-latitudes and high altitudes, not over the South Pole. When scientists see something they don’t understand, they rush to explain it, and several competing hypotheses quickly appeared in the peer-reviewed literature. One pointed to chlorine chemistry from chlorofluorocarbons. A second blamed nitrogen chemistry, possibly driven by solar proton events — meaning the sun was responsible. A third argued it wasn’t chemistry at all but dynamics: winds were carrying naturally low-ozone air from the lower atmosphere up into the stratosphere. Then the community went to work testing which theory could survive the crucible. Aircraft flew into the ozone hole and found no nitrogen, ruling out the nitrogen theory. Measurements showed the air in the polar vortex was descending, not rising — which would bring high-ozone air down, eliminating the dynamics theory. Meanwhile, those same flights measured enormous amounts of chlorine, strongly correlated with exactly the regions where ozone was being destroyed. That became known as the “smoking gun” paper, and it established that chlorine chemistry was the cause. Through this process, a consensus emerged. And it’s worth being clear that this consensus is organic. There’s no vote, no poll, no meeting where it gets decided. Scientists go to conferences, talk to one another, and independently arrived at the same answer. It’s the ultimate free market of ideas. After the consensus was established, the peer-reviewed literature doesn’t even mention the rival theories — it simply takes chlorine chemistry as given. That’s what a consensus looks like. It doesn’t mean every single scientist agrees, but it does mean there’s no longer any legitimate debate. So where can you see what scientists actually think? It’s all in the peer-reviewed literature, which contains the entire historical record of the argument: the discovery, the competing theories, the debate, the testing, and finally the community coalescing around one answer. But there’s a lot of room for misrepresentation. You can dig up an old paper claiming the ozone hole was caused by dynamics and wave it around as if there still was a debate about the cause of the ozone hole — without mentioning that the idea was disproven long ago and that even its own authors no longer believe it. There’s a bigger problem, though: the peer-reviewed literature is written in a language I call “nerd.” It’s extremely hard to read — honestly, some of it is hard for me to follow. It takes graduate students years to work through the literature in a single field, so we can’t expect policymakers or ordinary people to do it. This is where scientific assessments come in. The most famous is the IPCC — the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The job of an assessment is to read and summarize the peer-reviewed literature, synthesizing what’s settled, what’s been disproven, and what remains genuinely debated. To ensure the assessments accurately summarize the peer-reviewed literature, assessments are written by large teams, which are far less prone to bias than individuals and which dilute the influence of any one scientist with an axe to grind. The teams are deliberately assembled to avoid stacking the deck, and the reports themselves go through multiple rounds of peer review. That rigorous process is exactly why you can trust them and why people consider the IPCC to be the gold standard of what we know about the climate system. An assessment produced through a different process may well not be credible. You can even watch the consensus evolve across assessments. Take the attribution of warming. The 1990 IPCC report said the observed warming was broadly consistent with model predictions but also comparable to natural variability — in other words, we don’t know whether humans are responsible. By 1995, it concluded that the balance of evidence suggested a discernible human influence — a sentence only a committee could write, and one that barely commits to anything. By 2001, most of the warming over the previous 50 years was judged “likely” due to greenhouse gases; by 2007, “very likely”; by 2013, “extremely likely.” The 2023 report says essentially the same as 2013 — there’s not much stronger language available. So, to wrap up: science is our ultimate tool for deciphering the universe — the most successful method we’ve ever developed for determining what’s true and what isn’t. Our understanding is written into the peer-reviewed literature, so if you want to know what scientists think, that’s where to look. And for those of us who don’t speak nerd, scientific assessments are the Rosetta Stone — they translate nerd into English. Let me open the floor to questions. Thank you.
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