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10 Reasons Philadelphia Is the Best Sports City

The birthplace of the United States has another reason to rebel 250 years later. Philadelphia didn’t get enough votes to register in a recent Sports Business Journal poll of best American sports cities. New York City led the way at 20%, followed by Pittsburgh (16%) and Chicago (13%).

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Jul 3 • 7:30 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Wimbledon clings onto fashion traditions, with a twist

Amid fast-changing fashion trends, Wimbledon has remained a bastion of "classy" style, with players and attendees donning their finest whites at the London tennis tournament which some say is reminiscent of traditional British high society.Going to Wimbledon is "fascinating" as it gives "an insight into what the past of British society looked like," according to Daniel-Yaw Miller, a sports and fashion journalist.

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Jul 3 • 1:06 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
The American Lens: The most impactful sports photos in history

ESPN asked a panel of athletes, photojournalists and others from across the sports world to define the most impactful sports photos in American history

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Jul 3 • 12:31 AM EDT • Sports • espn.com
LeBron James' birthplace urges NBA star, 'Come home...please'

Akron's Summa Health, birthplace of LeBron James, posted a not-so-subtle message on Instagram urging the NBA star to finish his career in Cleveland.

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Jul 2 • 8:22 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Why Kotek is directing Oregon to prioritize small business contracts

Oregon small businesses will get preference in state contracting, Gov. Tina Kotek announced. Here's why.

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Jul 2 • 6:12 PM EDT • Business • statesmanjournal.com
Business Journal wins two California Journalism Awards

The Business Journal earned two California Journalism Awards for Frank Lopez's reporting on Central Valley agriculture and the wine industry.

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Jul 2 • 5:05 PM EDT • Business • thebusinessjournal.com
Helio and You: Heliophysics as an American Endeavor

Heliophysics is an important cornerstone of the history of astronomy, and many of the pioneers in this field have been American. This article examines a bit of this history in depth.

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Jul 2 • 2:27 PM EDT • Science • science.nasa.gov
How a freelancer pitched a story about sperm freezing to Popular Science

Freelancer Julia Daye’s commitment to attending in-person media events paid off by inspiring a successful pitch to Popular Science.

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Jul 2 • 1:43 PM EDT • Science • healthjournalism.org
Weekend Entertainment | Plenty of Room for Booms at Fireworks Displays

The Youngstown Symphony Orchestra will perform a free concert that will come to a dazzling finale, with a fireworks display for 15 minutes.

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Jul 2 • 12:45 PM EDT • Entertainment • businessjournaldaily.com
Oregon Health Authority director Dr. Sejal Hathi resigns

Oregon Health Authority director Dr. Sejal Hathi resigned from her position leading one of the state's largest agencies, effective Aug. 1.

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Jul 2 • 12:42 PM EDT • Health • statesmanjournal.com
How a new White House proposal could fundamentally change American science

In this webinar, we discuss the potential impacts of a Trump admin plan to overhaul how federal research grants are awarded and administered.

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Jul 2 • 11:37 AM EDT • Science • healthjournalism.org
Obsidian Entertainment is NOT in ‘Deep in Negotiation’ with Microsoft, per new Report *Updated

Update: Everyone’s favourite video game journalist, Bloomberg’s Jason Schrier has shared a brief post on social media that refutes the report detailed below: Despite a report this morning, I can confirm that Obsidian is not in negotiations to avoid shutting down. Plenty of details are still up in the air surrounding the layoffs (picture will […]

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Jul 2 • 10:14 AM EDT • Entertainment • playday.one
Nevada imports surge 492% since Great Recession, report finds

National Association of Realtors data shows that Nevada’s import industries, including distribution and logistics, have grown exponentially since the Great Recession.

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Jul 2 • 10:00 AM EDT • Business • reviewjournal.com
The White House goes all in on aliens with new UAP Science Advisory Council

This new group, which is led by Harvard professor Avi Loeb, aims to advise the Trump administration and the U.S. intelligence community, as well as to publish its findings in peer-reviewed journals

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Jul 2 • 7:30 AM EDT • Science • scientificamerican.com
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Latest World & National News & Headlines

USA TODAY delivers current national and local news, sports, entertainment, finance, technology, and more through award-winning journalism, photos, and videos.

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Jul 2 • 5:10 AM EDT • Health • usatoday.com
An AP journalist describes a month in the epicenter of Congo’s Ebola outbreak

An Associated Press journalist spent a month in the epicenter of Congo's Ebola outbreak documenting the toll and the challenges for health workers in a conflict zone.

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Jul 2 • 1:19 AM EDT • Health • seattletimes.com
EMS recording shows emergency response for ‘unconscious’ person at Sen. McConnell’s house on same day he was hospitalized

An EMS audio recording published by an independent journalist indicates that emergency responders were called to the Washington, DC, home of Sen. Mitch McConnell for an “unconscious” person the same day he was hospitalized last month.

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Jul 1 • 11:21 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
Judge orders Pentagon to lift policy requiring journalists to be accompanied by an escort

It was not immediately clear whether the order applied only to reporters from The New York Times, which filed the lawsuit, or to the entire press corps.

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Jul 1 • 6:34 PM EDT • Politics • pbs.org
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds score, lineups, live updates

Follow along for live updates from American Family Field as the Brewers go for six straight wins over the Reds.

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Jul 1 • 5:40 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Marion County leaders blast 'unnecessary' OHA rules, demand rescission

Marion County leaders are asking the Oregon Health Authority to rescind recent rule changes they say endanger patients, staff and the community.

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Jul 1 • 4:55 PM EDT • Health • statesmanjournal.com
Musk denies WSJ report that SpaceX showed AI handset prototype before IPO

Elon Musk on Wednesday denied a Wall Street Journal report that SpaceX showed investors and other stakeholders a prototype ​of an AI-focused device ahead of its blockbuster IPO.

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Jul 1 • 3:03 PM EDT • Technology • reuters.com
Judge rules for UNC in lawsuit from fired business professor

A federal judge has ruled against a former University of North Carolina business professor who sued the school for retaliation and racial discrimination after his contract was not renewed in 2024.

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Jul 1 • 1:28 PM EDT • Business • carolinajournal.com
Wright State President Sue Edwards Named to Dayton Business Journal’s Power 100

One hundred area leaders are being recognized for helping shape the Dayton region’s growth over the last 25 years. Continue reading →

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Jul 1 • 10:55 AM EDT • Business • webapp2.wright.edu
Sit Down With Success: Bubba Conner Of Silver Spoon Catering

Success didn’t happen overnight for Bubba Conner. Through four decades of long hours, calculated risks, and a commitment to showing up for his team every day,

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Jul 1 • 7:00 AM EDT • Business • huntsvillebusinessjournal.com
Computer scientists develop a new AI tool that rivals AlphaFold 3 in mapping RNA

The method, called RNAbpFlow, was described in a study published on June 30 in Nature Methods, among the most selective journals in computational life sciences.

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Jun 30 • 9:15 AM EDT • Science • news.vt.edu
Louisville woman sentenced to federal prison after pool business fraud

Tracy Davenport was sentenced to federal prison after facing charges in connection with defrauding customers from her pool installation business.

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Jun 30 • 7:59 AM EDT • Business • courier-journal.com
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Twin Cities Somali businesses face long, slow recovery after Operation Metro Surge

Customer traffic and spending remain down, and many Somali-owned shops have had to lay off workers and fallen behind on rent.

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Jun 30 • 7:00 AM EDT • Business • sahanjournal.com
Beyond Politics: A China-Born Journalist’s American Story

Plus, a professor’s lesson: The First Amendment favors verifying facts over accepting government claims. |WSJ China for June 30

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Jun 30 • 6:55 AM EDT • Politics • wsj.com
Brewers' win over the Reds featured 3 desperately needed performances

Three Brewers mired in deep funks came up big to help beat the Reds on June 29 at American Family Field.

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Jun 30 • 12:46 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Encina Private Credit Provides $90MM First Out Tranche for Healthcare Business

Encina Private Credit (EPC) served as the administrative and collateral agent on a senior secured credit facility supporting a dividend recap and refinance

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Jun 30 • 12:32 AM EDT • Business • abfjournal.com
Republic Business Credit Provides $2MM E-Commerce ABL Facility to Emerging Retailer

Republic Business Credit funded a $2 million e-commerce asset-based lending facility for an Amazon third-party seller of consumer goods. The facility includes

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Jun 30 • 12:28 AM EDT • Business • abfjournal.com
ROSES-25 A.12 HAMAQ Science Team Clarified

Hemispheric Airborne Measurements of Air Quality (HAMAQ) is a NASA-funded project under the EVS-4 program using two aircraft (NASA’s B777 & P-3B) to

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Jun 29 • 4:48 PM EDT • Science • science.nasa.gov
Betsy Fischer Martin Will Lead Harvard’s Institute of Politics

The Emmy-winning journalist was a mainstay of political coverage at NBC for two decades.

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Jun 29 • 12:54 PM EDT • Politics • harvardmagazine.com
Dayton Business Journal: Former Ohio State, Arizona State administrator named Wright State athletic director

Following the university’s first-ever national search for a Division I athletics director, Wright State University has selected a new leader for its athletic program. Wright State has named Brad Chandler as the next director of athletics. “I am incredibly grateful … Continue reading →

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Jun 29 • 10:20 AM EDT • Business • webapp2.wright.edu
The Hollywood Reporter Tops 2026 SoCal Journalism Awards With 20 First-Place Wins, More Than Any Other Outlet

Among its awards are best website, journalist of the year honors for Gary Baum and Seth Abramovitch, best film critic for David Rooney, and best audio anchor/host for Scott Feinberg. Overall, THR nabb...

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Jun 29 • 10:14 AM EDT • Entertainment • yahoo.com
Kara Swisher took Silicon Valley by force. Now she's eyeing influence in the 2028 campaign

Kara Swisher is expanding her influence from tech journalism to politics

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Jun 29 • 7:03 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Viewpoint: The dangerous influence of ‘woke’ post-modernism in science

rom an article in Science magazine by journalist Rachael Zamzow, we learn that many social scientists believe that a published paper should

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Jun 29 • 7:00 AM EDT • Science • geneticliteracyproject.org
Kara Swisher brings her Silicon Valley influence into politics

Kara Swisher is expanding her influence from tech journalism to politics. Swisher is known for her fearless interviews and has hosted figures like Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk.

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Jun 29 • 6:44 AM EDT • Politics • apnews.com
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Kara Swisher took Silicon Valley by force. Now she's eyeing influence in the 2028 campaign

Kara Swisher is expanding her influence from tech journalism to politics.

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Jun 29 • 6:44 AM EDT • Politics • news4jax.com
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Patriotic movies to stream to celebrate America's 250th birthday

Patriotism on screen comes in all different forms. It's politicians, athletes, soldiers, pilots, journalists — people from all walks of life, coming together in ordinary and extraordinary ways and making

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Jun 29 • 6:00 AM EDT • Entertainment • recorderonline.com
America 250: L.A. Threads its Fabric

A decade ago, fashion newcomer Ari Jogiel turned a hat-making passion project into a one-stop-shop garment factory. At his namesake full-package company,

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Jun 29 • 3:01 AM EDT • Business • labusinessjournal.com
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Polsinelli Expands Health Care M&A with Addition of New Shareholders

Polsinelli added Matthew S. Miller as a shareholder in the firm’s Nashville office and Muthuramanan “Ramana” Rameswaran as a shareholder in Dallas.

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Jun 29 • 12:09 AM EDT • Health • abfjournal.com
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Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial

Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to

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Jun 28 • 3:45 PM EDT • Health • astrazeneca-us.com
Why did this journal retract two 1940s papers by Max Planck?

Clicking on the links now reveals blank pages and empty PDFs. "Intellectually, it’s not acceptable.”...

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Jun 28 • 2:49 PM EDT • Science • arstechnica.com
Alan Ritchson's New Unusually Silent 'Motor City' Movie Described as 'John Wick Meets Reacher'

Alan Ritchson's latest movie is unusual because of its almost complete lack of dialogue.

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Jun 28 • 12:49 PM EDT • Entertainment • mensjournal.com
Jodi's Journal: The purple city prevails

No matter who emerges in this election, the purple city has prevailed. And I think that's a win.

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Jun 28 • 8:00 AM EDT • Business • siouxfalls.business
From global politics to legendary performances: 110 years of Western Herald

June 28, 2026 marks the 110th birthday of Western Herald, celebrating over a century of journalism and dedication to delivering news to campus.

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Jun 28 • 8:00 AM EDT • Politics • westernherald.com
Delaware's Most Influential and Inspiring in small business for 2026

Meet eight Delawareans making the list for Delaware Online/The News Journal's Most Influential & Inspiring in small business for 2026.

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Jun 28 • 5:34 AM EDT • Business • delawareonline.com
Tony Brown, trailblazing journalist, TV talk show, dies at 93

"Tony Brown’s Journal," which ran on PBS for nearly four decades, provided a national platform for frank discussions on race, politics, and culture.

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Jun 27 • 10:14 PM EDT • Politics • usatoday.com
The Arts and Sciences of Judo: The New Edition Expands the Frontiers of Knowledge

The publication of Volume 6, Number 1 of "The Arts and Sciences of Judo" marks another important milestone in the development of judo research worldwide. As the International Judo Federation's interdisciplinary journal, under the supervision of Professor Sanda Čorak, it has become a recognised platform where science, education and the values of judo come together to deepen our understanding of the many dimensions of our sport. It also forms an integral part of the IJF Academy's mission to promote education, lifelong learning and the dissemination of knowledge throughout the global judo community.

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Jun 27 • 10:12 PM EDT • Science • ijf.org
What's Happening: RI Small business shopping village

WPRI 12 News on WPRI.com is Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts' local news, weather, sports, politics, and investigative journalism source.

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Jun 27 • 9:05 PM EDT • Business • wpri.com
Don Lemon, DL Hughley bring 'Anything Goes' tour to Columbus this fall

Emmy Award-winning journalist Don Lemon and renowned comedian DL Hughley will visit Columbus as part of their extended tour this fall. The comedy-political commentary duo are set to perform at Mershon...

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Jun 27 • 7:42 PM EDT • Entertainment • yahoo.com
The fittest founder in the room got cancer. Here's how he used AI to fight back.

When confronted with cancer, Connor Christou fed everything tied tied to his regime — blood results, scan data, wearable output, journal entries — into Claude.

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Jun 27 • 10:00 AM EDT • Technology • techcrunch.com
Trump admin rule puts reproductive health care for 160K Pa. patients at risk, lawsuit says

Spotlight PA is an independent, nonpartisan, and nonprofit newsroom producing investigative and public-service journalism that holds power to account and...

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Jun 27 • 6:00 AM EDT • Health • post-gazette.com
Guardians score, lineups vs Seattle Mariners at Progressive FIeld

The short-handed Guardians look to find some offense against the Mariners at Progressive Field. Follow along here for live updates.

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Jun 26 • 5:46 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
The impact of club sports on student experience in higher education

Authors: Ryan Savitz1, Divit Gupta2, Jared Ward3, Andrew Bjorkelo1 1Neumann University 2Conestoga High School 3Brigham Young University Corresponding Author: Ryan Savitz savitzr@neumann.edu …

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Jun 26 • 5:10 PM EDT • Sports • thesportjournal.org
Colonial Market owner closes south Minneapolis location due to sharp drop in business following Metro Surge

Colonial Market owner Daniel Hernandez has closed the chain’s south Minneapolis location, which he said never recovered after the store’s employees and customers were targeted during Operation Metro Surge.

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Jun 26 • 2:38 PM EDT • Business • sahanjournal.com
Rock Creek Entertainment District under siege in new lawsuit

A citizens group has sued to block Norman's $1.1 billion Rock Creek Entertainment District, alleging constitutional and Open Meetings Act violations.

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Jun 26 • 1:11 PM EDT • Entertainment • journalrecord.com
Scientists Baffled by Discovery of Rare “Pink Floyd” Spider Hidden in Home Walls - Futura-Sciences

The Birth of a “Pink Floyd” Spider Tiny, discreet, and quietly settled on urban walls, a new species of spider was recently discovered in Colombia—and christened as a tribute to the iconic rock band Pink Floyd. As part of a study published in the journal Zoosystematics and Evolution, South American...

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Jun 26 • 1:00 PM EDT • Science • futura-sciences.com
Amid lingering disparities, Tulsa business leaders explore how to increase diversity

Tulsa business leaders discussed how workplace diversity and inclusion can strengthen economic growth during the Tulsa Regional Chamber's State of Inclusion event.

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Jun 26 • 12:36 PM EDT • Business • journalrecord.com
Climbing gym planned in former Summerlin-area movie theater

The gym, which will fill the old Regal Theater on 9400 W. Sahara Ave. in Summerlin, is set to open later this year or early next.

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Jun 26 • 10:30 AM EDT • Business • reviewjournal.com
Las Vegas group, school launch scholarship to expand access to skilled trades

The National Association of Women in Construction Las Vegas recently launched a new scholarship in partnership with trade school Quality Training Centers. The scholarship is intended to expose more...

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Jun 26 • 10:00 AM EDT • Business • reviewjournal.com
Ball State Teacher Preparation Programs Earn Top Ratings in Science of Reading Reviews

By Ball State Communications— MUNCIE, Indiana — Ball State University’s elementary education, early childhood education, and special education teacher preparation programs have earned top marks in two reviews focused on how well future educators are prepared to teach reading through evidence-based,

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Jun 26 • 8:30 AM EDT • Science • munciejournal.com
Louisville coaches can't afford to stay sidelined amid NCAA changes

The NCAA has brought college sports into instability, which is why coaches like Louisville's Jeff Brohm and Pat Kelsey have to be activists.

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Jun 26 • 5:11 AM EDT • Sports • courier-journal.com
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Ohio Black-owned businesses, payroll has increased, bringing bigger share of economy to group

According to analysis of national census data, black-owned businesses in Ohio continue to increase payroll, and drive jobs and income in the state.

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Jun 26 • 3:50 AM EDT • Business • ohiocapitaljournal.com
PNC Business Credit Names Brady to Southwest Region Sales Manager

PNC Business Credit promoted Eamonn Brady to Southwest region sales manager. Based in Denver, Brady will spearhead business development efforts across both

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Jun 26 • 2:28 AM EDT • Business • abfjournal.com
Kenny Klein, former longtime Louisville Athletics administrator, dies

Kenny Klein, a former Louisville Athletics administrator of 39 years who worked more than 1,300 straight men's basketball games, has died at age 65.

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Jun 25 • 10:18 PM EDT • Sports • courier-journal.com
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Golden State Valkyries employee named in Sports Business Journal's Forty under 40 list

The Golden State Valkyries have created a winning culture on and off the court. After making WNBA history last season becoming the first expansion team to reach the playoffs, the success is also extending throughout the organization.

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Jun 25 • 6:28 PM EDT • Business • abc7news.com
Granger family pledges largest gift in history of UM-Health Sparrow

The Granger family has pledged the largest gift in University of Michigan Health-Sparrow history for a new behavioral health hospital.

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Jun 25 • 5:43 PM EDT • Health • lansingstatejournal.com
Making Our Own Luck

We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.

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Jun 25 • 4:48 PM EDT • Science • goodscience.substack.com
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