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Google Pixel's battery problems are unforgivable after 10 years
After 10 Pixel generations, five of which have shipped with Google's own Tensor processor, it's unacceptable to see this many battery issues still.
'We have to do better': GOP, Dems say there's a culture problem in Congress
Over the last week, the U.S. House of Representatives has been rocked by resignations.
Computer Science Student Deemed 'Wizard' For Tech Acumen
Seeing Sierra Brandt’s technological magic in action led Erica Cullwell to dub Brandt “The Departmental Wizard” of the Career Center.Not only was Brandt able to resolve a longstanding problem for the Career Center, her solution will support Cal State San Marcos students for years to come.Brandt is a transfer student from MiraCosta Communit...
Trump approval is falling into George W. Bush territory
Twenty years ago, the bottom began to fall out on George W. Bush’s approval ratings due to the Iraq war. President Donald Trump is seeing similar problems with Iran.
Warsh vows to keep monetary policy independent of politics
STORY: :: Fed chief nominee Warsh vows to keep monetary policy independent of politics:: Washington, D.C. / April 21, 2026:: Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve chief nominee“Monetary policy independence is essential. Monetary policymakers must act in the nation's interest. Their decision is the product of rigor, deliberation and unclouded decision-making. And as Senator Warren said, I do not believe that independence of monetary policy is threatened when elected officials state their views on rates. Fed independence is up to the Fed." // :: Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Ranking Democrat on Senate Banking Committee“So, independence takes courage. Let's check out your independence and your courage. We'll start easy. Mr. Warsh, did Donald Trump lose the 2020 election?”WARSH: “Um, we try to keep politics, if I’m confirmed, out of the Federal Reserve.”WARREN: “I’m just asking you a factual question. I need to know. I need to measure your independence and your courage.”WARSH: “Senator, I believe that this body certified that election many years ago.”WARREN: “That’s not the question I’m asking. I’m asking did Donald Trump lose in 2020?”WARSH: “And I’m suggesting to you in 2020…”WARREN: “I’m suggesting you can’t answer that.”WARSH: “… the Fed had a huge inflation problem, and you certified the election…[crosstalk]… let’s keep the politics out of monetary policy.” //WARREN: "Just one little place where you disagree with Donald Trump.”WARSH: “Well, I do have a disagreement actually, Senator, with the president. I think even this morning, he said that he thought I was out of central casting. I think central casting, I'd look older, grayer, maybe show up here with a cigar of sorts.”WARREN: “Quite adorable. But, you know, we need a Fed chair who is independent. That's the only way we preserve the independence of the Federal Reserve. If you can't answer these questions, you don't have the courage and you don't have the independence.”In a confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee that quickly hinted at major changes to come at a Warsh-led Fed, the 56-year-old lawyer and financier blamed the central bank for an inflation surge in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic that continues to hurt U.S. households.Warsh's hearing quickly turned contentious. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren pressed Warsh on his independence and "courage", saying President Donald Trump had made clear Warsh would be his "sock puppet".
I was a triathlete in peak health — but my 'wavy' vision problem turned out to be something devastating
AI Gives 'Problematic' Health Advice Around Half The Time, Study Suggests
The most dangerous advice may sound most convincing.
AI Gives 'Problematic' Health Advice Around Half The Time, Study Suggests
The most dangerous advice may sound most convincing.
Same problems, different night for Penguins in Game 2 loss to Flyers
For two days all the Penguins could talk about was turning the page on their Game 1 loss to the Flyers. Their problem was they still ended up taking notes...
At AACR, a provocative use of CAR-T, Merck’s new thing and cancer’s geography problem
At AACR, a bold use of CAR-T raises hopes and provocative questions about its use in smoldering multiple myeloma.
World's largest collection of Olympiad-level math problems now available to everyone
Every year, the countries competing in the International Mathematical Olympiad arrive with a booklet of their best, most original problems. Those booklets get shared among delegations, then quietly disappear. ...
NDFS Honored Graduate: Julia Wangsgard’s Recipe for Success
Driven by curiosity and a love for problem-solving, Julia Wangsgard is using food science to innovate, research, and create new products that promote healthier living.
Why Democrats with 2028 hopes are calling Lina Khan – and what she’s telling them about remaking the economy
Lina Khan is getting constant calls from Democrats, many of them thinking about presidential runs, to sound out problems and workshop potential solutions. That’s a shift from when she was Federal Trade Commission chair and some party leaders avoided meetings or events with her. Khan hasn’t changed so much as the world around her has. Many Americans are furious about rising costs, affordability, technological changes, and soaring profits for the rich. And President Donald Trump has maximized the levers of federal power in ways that were once considered off-limits in both parties. What Khan has in mind for the next Democrat in the White House isn’t a 1,000-page blueprint like the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025. It’s more of an overall strategy rooted in her specialty: excavating long-forgotten laws already on the books, then finding ways to apply them to 21st century companies.
How AI is becoming a 'game changer' for RI's health care systems
Electronic record keeping is the bane of many a doctor. It’s onerous and leads to physician burnout. Could AI help fix this problem?
Chatbots often offer 'problematic' cancer advice, study finds
Popular artificial intelligence programs told users where to find alternative, potentially dangerous treatments for cancer and other health scenarios.
Helium problems hit local business
The international helium concern impacts a local Streetsboro party planning business.
Politicians are using low teen birth rates to further restrict access to birth control, abortion
“Both narratives — that teen birth rates are too high or too low — problematize teen pregnancy and childbearing,” writes Riley J. Steiner.
When former friends conclude we are the problem, we have a problem
April arrived in Colorado this year displaying the Janus-like dual visages that characterize MAGA America. The ecstatic, giddy enthusiasm of the Artemis crew which just circled the moon before returning to a near perfect splashdown off San Diego reminded each of us why we are so proud of our country — its daring, its commitment […]
Can the Outdoors Solve a $5 Trillion Healthcare Problem? This New Alliance Says Yes.
The Outdoor Recreation Roundtable will host the National Executive Forum on Health and Outdoor Recreation May 6-7 in Washington D.C.
What we learned as Phillies drop fifth straight, swept by rival Braves
The Phillies lost their fifth straight and finished a 2-7 homestand as the Braves exposed more familiar problems on Sunday night.
Problem Solver's Consultants named West Virginia Rural Small Business of the Year
Problem Solver’s Consultants, a Buckhannon-based marketing agency, has been named the 2026 West Virginia Rural Small Business of the Year by the U.S. Small Business Administration. The honor will be presented May 6 in Fairmont during National Small Business Week.
Loneliness may contribute to memory issues, but not dementia — they are 'not the same thing'
A researcher explains what we know — and what we don't — about the link between loneliness and memory problems.
Asking the Wrong Questions About Hasan Piker
The problem isn’t whether to engage with influencers, but how to.
‘The current system right now is unsustainable’: top economist sees a crucial crack in the economy
“The current system right now is unsustainable,” one economist said. As baby boomers age, the problems may only intensify.
Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream solves Animal Crossing: New Horizon's biggest problem
I quickly burnt myself out playing Animal Crossing: New Horizons. I don't expect that to happen with Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream
Missing teen with health problems last seen in Fair Play, deputies say
Anyone with information is asked to call 911 or leave a news tip with Crimestoppers.
Athletics' Jacob Wilson problem might not go away anytime soon
This might become a season-long issue for the A's.
14 Cool Gadgets On Amazon That Can Solve Everyday Problems
Sometimes it's the little things in life that cause the most stress, but the right gadgets from Amazon can take those annoying tasks off your to-do list.
'Margo's Got Money Troubles' Has Almost Everything Going For It — But There's 1 Big Problem
Elle Fanning and Michelle Pfeiffer star in Apple TV's adaptation of Rufi Thorpe's novel. It's a delight but also falls into a common trap in this streaming era.
Failure of communication is a problem in today’s politics [column]
“I came to see if words are still an effective method of communication,” Japanese writer and political activist Yukio Mishima said during a famous political debate at the University of
Trump Expected to Loosen Restrictions on Psychedelic Drugs
An executive order is intended to accelerate research into the compounds’ efficacy in treating PTSD, depression and other mental health problems.
Scott Gaudin: Business owners don’t need a bank. They need a banker.
There is no shortage of banks—there are more than 4,500 nationwide. There is no shortage of products, platforms or capital in the market today. On paper, business owners have more options than ever before. And yet, many still feel like they are making important decisions alone. That is the problem. Business owners do not need […]
What to Know: AI-Powered Healthcare Innovations Shine at Edison Awards
Innovations in healthcare are happening at a breakneck speed that is increasingly supported by artificial intelligence. These developments can help with many of the problems facing the healthcare industry today: rising costs, declining accessibility, data silos and cybersecurity. But they bring with ...
Destiny 2’s Re-Release Of A Botched Iron Banner Is Embarrassing
Destiny 2 brought Iron Banner back, filled with obvious problems that Bungie says will not be fixed for months.
Super-agers have healthy cognitive function
I just read about people who are called super-agers and how they don't have the memory problems that happen when you get older. Supposedly they have more brain cells. Do you know if that's true? The idea of super-agers is really interesting, and I want to know more.
Inside Amazon's AI Sprawl problem: More Tools, More Data, Less Control
Generative AI makes it easier to create your own apps and tools at work. The downside is "AI sprawl," something Amazon is grappling with internally.
Duffy withholds federal funding from New York over immigrant trucker licenses dispute
New York will lose more than $73.5 million in federal money because the Transportation Department said Thursday that state has refused to revoke nearly 33,000 questionable commercial driver's licenses for immigrants since an audit uncovered problems last year.
Democrats want the full 2024 election autopsy released — no matter the findings
DNC Chair Ken Martin told party officials he planned to release some of the results, sources said. But more than a dozen Democrats said they want to see the full scope of the problems.
Arc Raiders Death Spiral Is A Problem Other Games Would Kill For
Also: the Call Of Duty movie will be out in summer 2028 and aims to be 'authentic'
Russian Influencers Turn From Cosmetics To Politics, But Don't Mention The War
Russian influencer Victoria Bonya made a personal address to Russian President Vladimir Putin: In a country where political debate and criticism of the authorities is tightly controlled, she brought up problems people face in their everyday lives. Except the war in Ukraine.
‘Crimson Desert’ Still Isn’t Addressing One Of Its Biggest Problems
There is one Crimson Desert issue that isn’t being discussed, not even for a months-long roadmap, that remains a big issue with the game.
MIT scientists just found a hidden problem slowing the ozone comeback
The ozone layer has been on track to recover thanks to the Montreal Protocol—but a loophole may be holding it back. Chemicals still permitted for industrial use are leaking into the atmosphere at higher rates than expected. Scientists now estimate this could delay ozone recovery by up to seven years. Closing this gap could speed up healing and reduce harmful UV exposure worldwide.
Today’s Papers – Allegri’s frosty relationship with Milan, Yildiz’s knee problems
La Gazzetta dello SportRoma tension, Ranieri could even leaveGasp wants full trustInter, Bastoni takes a breakChivu changes; the defender is tired and will miss Cagliari.Devil of a nineJuve slow down,...
Cal Poly Humboldt to Launch Health & Medical Sciences Degree
The United States is facing a shortage of healthcare workers, a problem especially prevalent in rural regions like the North Coast.
Chicago mall could be shut down due to ‘imminent' health, safety risks, city says
The city said the building's problems could lead to "creation of a sinkhole and catastrophic structural failure."
Coal ash rollback 'all-out attack' on Indiana communities, groups say
The U.S. EPA proposed to roll back coal ash cleanup rules initially designed to protect people and water from pollution.
Brian Kelly on LSU firing: 'I didn’t win enough games, period.' What's next?
Six months after LSU firing, Brian Kelly tells USA TODAY Sports the problem was simple: ‘I didn’t win enough.’ But he wants to coach again.
Athens restaurant scores range from perfect to problematic
Health inspections show a mix of perfect scores and notable violations at various Athens restaurants.
A new approach to brain health, one neuron at a time
Neuroscientist Paul Nuyujukian likens the brain to a stadium full of people. To eavesdrop on the crowd you could put a microphone in the middle of the stadium. But to understand the conversations you need to record individual people. He thinks about the brain the same way. To understand brain disease, he studies neurons—one at a time. And his insights are shedding light on a big global issue—stroke. The World Health Organization predicts one in four adults will have a stroke in their lifetime. Strokes can cause death, or lead to paralysis or speech problems. But there’s still a lot researchers don’t know about how the brain recovers from an event like a stroke. Nuyujukian directs a lab at Stanford University that studies how the brain controls movement, including after neurological events like stroke. We get into how he does this, and why he hopes his research could eventually help people who’ve been paralyzed. Email us your questions about the brain – or anything else to do with science at shortwave@npr.org. We may turn it into an episode in the future!Listen to every episode of Short Wave sponsor-free and support our work at NPR by signing up for Short Wave+ at plus.npr.org/shortwave.
Months-long road closure creating problems for Beaver County businesses
Republicans’ big 2026 problem: An unhinged Trump who doesn’t seem to care about them
It’s almost as if President Donald Trump doesn’t care that what he’s doing could torpedo the GOP’s hopes in less than seven months — because Congress doesn’t matter much to his view of power.
Study finds no link between medical gender reassignment and improved mental health among young people
An extensive register-based study conducted in Finland has found an increase in severe mental health problems among some adolescents and young adults who have undergone medical gender reassignment (GR). ...
Pixel battery drain issues persist for some, but one user may have cracked the problem
Now we just need Google to fix it
Blurry iPhone Text Picture Problem: Is There An Easy Solution I'm Missing?
I use my iPhone for all my pictures of airlines and hotels. It serves me well, with one major issue... is there something I'm missing?
Dianna Russini put credibility of all women in sports at risk
The Athletic's Dianna Russini was photographed holding hands with Patriots coach Mike Vrabel. The photos are problematic for all women in sports.
Morgan Wallen’s Tuscaloosa show is this weekend: Secure last-minute ticket deals before they sell out
Country music star Morgan Wallen will be in Tuscaloosa, Alabama this weekend for the next stop on his Still The Problem North American tour. Concertgoers still looking for tickets can find limited seats available.
'My 600-Lb. Life' Star Dolly Martinez’s Cause of Death Revealed
The former reality star died at age 30 following years of weight-related health problems.
UNC researcher works to make AI more reliable in health care
Researchers at UNC Chapel Hill's Gillings School of Global Public Health are tailoring AI to make it more reliable for solving health problems.
Google’s Latest Pixel Update Is Bad News For Android
Android has a serious problem — and it's now getting worse.
‘Problem solver’ Richard Lamondin bolsters South Florida party support after SD 38 switch
‘His priorities are our priorities.’
Samsung to fix Adaptive Clock glitch in One UI 8.5 update
Adaptive Clock has a glitch on One UI 8.5 devices, and Samsung is working on a fix. The problem has been acknowledged by a community moderator, who promised the addressal with the next Beta software update. It’s already a big day for Samsung users, thanks to One UI 8.5 rollouts. Whether it’s new Beta releases […]
BGHS students earn multiple honors at science competitions - Sent-trib
Bowling Green High School students demonstrated their scientific knowledge, teamwork, and problem-solving skills at two regional science competitions held on March 14, earning multiple top finishes and one student advancing to the state level.
The ‘Annoyance Economy’ Is More Than Just Annoying
A new estimate puts the cost of dealing with robocalls, hidden fees and customer service chatbots that can’t solve most problems at $165 billion.
Mayor Helena Moreno eyes a new City Hall, courthouse: ‘We have waited long enough’
New Orleans Mayor Helena Moreno is taking on a problem that generations of mayors before her have tried — and failed — to solve: The need for a new City Hall.
Yankees news: Boone angry with ABS failures
Yanks worst in baseball at challenges; bottom of lineup a Problem; farewell to Winquest; RIP to an old-timer.
Ex-Tesla president mimicked Domino's pizza ordering to boost car sales
A former Tesla boss said he and Elon Musk spotted a problem with the carmaker's website. They turned to Domino's for inspiration.
How Shadow AI Culture Is Destroying Your Business
Shadow AI isn't a compliance problem. It's a cultural exodus. How institutional control over AI, work, and creativity is driving your best people underground.
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
Brian Cox: ‘We don’t know how powerful AI is going to become – it’s both exciting and potentially a problem’
The physicist, BBC presenter and author on snowflakes, art v science and the time Paul McCartney quizzed him about one of Saturn’s moons
'iPhone Ultra' Will Solve Two Key Problems
Apple reportedly plans to unveil a foldable iPhone in September, and the device will supposedly solve two problems with foldable smartphones. In case you missed it, a leaker on Chinese social media platform Weibo recently claimed that the foldable iPhone will be named "iPhone Ultra". According to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, the device will have improved screen quality and overall durability compared to competing foldables.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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