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Here’s how an under-the-radar court decision could bolster Oklahoma’s political parties
Outside groups and self-funded candidates have dominated recent Oklahoma elections, but that could soon change.
North Star Health Alliance cuts draw community pushback at Carthage public hearing
Community members, elected officials, and a congressional candidate confronted North Star Health Alliance leadership during a Tuesday night public hearing.
Where governor candidates stand on incentives, data centers and other business issues
Crain’s asked each contender to respond to seven questions ahead of the Aug. 4 primary, when voters will decide which Democrat and Republican will face off in November.
East Texas community advocate shares passion for technology, politics
Cody Grace is a technology entrepreneur and community advocate. He ran ran as the Democratic party candidate for Texas House District 6. He was born and raised in Tyler, TX. Tonight, we discuss his connection to work, community, and technology.
Computer science master’s degree candidates can view application Aug. 1
Prospective students can apply for the one-year program starting Oct. 1.
MLB Trade Deadline Predictions For Skubal And Other Top Targets
Let's make some predictions on where the top trade candidates will land before the Aug. 3 deadline.
This South Dakota race shows how wealthy candidates are changing American politics
The incumbent governor faces an unexpected challenge from a self-funded outsider.
A Political Candidate Says She Joined Dating Apps to Find Love, Not Voters. Then Bumble and Hinge Banned Her
Alina Bonsell says her post-match icebreaker was a joke. Her case tests when political disclosure on dating apps becomes campaign solicitation.
Campaign season boosts business for Tallahassee print shop
As campaign season ramps up ahead of Florida’s primary election, one Tallahassee print shop said candidates’ spending is providing an economic boost for local businesses.
‘Blessed’: Frederick Haynes, pastor and candidate, on his politics, faith and health
WASHINGTON (RNS) — ‘The church has been so supportive that, I mean, they've been more excited about my campaign than I have,’ Haynes said of his historically Black Dallas megachurch.
South Carolina Republicans line up to run in special primary to replace late Sen. Lindsey Graham
WASHINGTON (AP) — The field of Republican candidates vying to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on November ballots is nearly set, with at least 10 hopefuls filing their paperwork and launching into a two-week sprint toward the Aug. 11 special GOP primary. WATCH LIVE: Sen. Lindsey Graham remembered in funeral service at Washington National Cathedral It's been a jumbled and frenetic period during what would have otherwise been Graham's expected glide path toward a
Eagles News: Darius Cooper among training camp trade candidates
Philadelphia Eagles news and links for 7/28/26.
Poll: Who Gets Into Hall of Fame Next Year?
The Pro Football Hall of Fame will enshrine its Class of 2026 one week from Saturday, on August 8. The five players being inducted are modern-era candidates Drew Brees, Larry Fitzgerald, Luke Kuechly and Adam Vinatieri, and senior committee choice Roger Craig. For Brees and Fitzgerald, this was their first year on the ballot.
Notre Dame football running back preview for the 2026 season
Notre Dame RB Kedren Young is nearly a full year removed from his ACL tear, which makes him a candidate for short-yardage and goal-line assignments.
Data centers have become a political issue. Here's where the Ohio governor candidates stand.
The frontrunners for Ohio governor both want to regulate data centers but have different plans for how to address growing concerns.
Stevens and El-Sayed trade personal attacks and other takeaways from the Michigan Senate primary debate
The stark choice facing Michigan’s Democratic voters in the August 4 Senate primary was on display Monday night, as the two candidates closed their final debate by pitching themselves as best positioned to win a general election that could tip the balance of power in the Senate.
Free Press Opinion: Where politics are concerned, churches should keep first things first
If the mission of a Christian church is to proclaim the lordship of Jesus Christ and ask those who would follow him to lead a similar life, why would it use part of its primary Sunday service to promote political candidates the leader of the church believes should be elected?
Why faith matters in today’s political memoirs
Americans increasingly want to know the details of political candidates’ faith. Recent political memoirs focus on God, morality, and religion.
Maryland candidates should hear from small businesses
Opinion: Maryland candidates should speak to small business owners to learn what they can do to improve the state’s business climate, writes Mike O’Halloran.
2026 MLB Trade Deadline: Date, Time, Everything You Should Know
The 2026 MLB trade deadline is Aug. 3. Here's the date and time, where to follow the rumors, the top trade candidates and the biggest storylines.
Penn State 2026 Breakout Candidates: Defensive Tackle
There was a ton movement at defensive tackle for Penn State over the offseason, and it’s clear with the moves that were made, Matt Campbell wanted to get bigger — much bigger — inside. While this group currently lacks anyone who projects as an all-conference performer, there’s a couple guys I’m keeping my eye on […]
U.S. Senate candidates not addressing Michigan’s economic woes, political experts say
“Michigan’s economy over the past 25 years has become calcified in its nostalgia for manufacturing,” said pollster Richard Czuba, who regularly surveys Michigan residents for the Detroit Regional Chamber. “And that is, at the very core, what has caused Michigan’s economy to just stagnate. We have got to change.”
5 breakout candidates for the Bills in 2026
Here are five breakout candidates on the 2026 Bills roster. Who is your best guess?
A Colorado history lesson for Victor Marx
Victor Marx, who narrowly won the Republican nomination for governor by one half 1% after boasting of a massive 44-point lead, is just as misguided on Colorado political history. During the primary, Marx made a clumsy attempt to denigrate his opponent, state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer, as a “great candidate for the 1990s” whom he would […]
Legal fight over churches endorsing candidates renewed as midterms near
The so-called Johnson Amendment has long barred houses of worship from direct involvement in politics. But an ongoing legal fight could change that.
Wu-backed state Sen. candidate is Beacon Hill lobbyist, secured millions for nonprofit
A Democratic state Sen. candidate backed by Boston Mayor Michelle Wu is a registered lobbyist who has secured tens of millions of taxpayer dollars for the nonprofit organization she works for.
‘Climate hushing’ has swept the Democratic Party. New polling suggests it’s a mistake.
Climate change might not be voters' top priority, but new polling suggests that emphasizing it might actually boost support for candidates.
Money in Ann Arbor politics: Where does it come from, and where does it go?
Pre-election campaign finance statements for candidates of the Aug. 4 Ann Arbor mayoral and City Council primaries were due Friday. The statements report all campaign contributions and expenditures — from five-figure donations, to a $3.99 purchase of water made by mayoral candidate Yousef Rabhi’s campaign. Collectively, candidates for mayor and City Council have raised more […]
One Browns WR tabbed as clear training camp trade candidate
Does Cedric Tillman need a trade from the Browns? Bleacher Report sure thinks so.
Politics Unplugged Podcast: Recapping the primary with Chuck Coughlin
Independent consultant Chuck Coughlin gives us a brutally honest breakdown of the primary elections and why some of the candidates shouldn’t have run in the first place. Then Dennis and Colin talk about the current state of the Suns.
Ex-economic committee member, small business owner Gupta running for Pleasanton City Council District 3
Pleasanton resident and business advocate Reena Gupta launched her campaign for the City Council District 3 seat a bit differently than typical candidates.
Mike Rogers on the rise of Democratic socialism in Michigan and national politics
Republican Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers discusses the growing influence of Democratic socialists across the country. He also discusses his potential opponent Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and his unclear stance on the DSA.
MLB rumors: Major trade candidate could miss rest of 2026 with injury; Nationals taking calls on CJ Abrams
The trade deadline is barely a week away
Colorado Politics Calendar July 27-Aug. 2
CoPo’s weekly political calendar will help you find political and public-policy events throughout Colorado. It includes candidate and issue campaign events, public policy meetings, court hearings, state and local party conventions, assemblies, debates, rallies, parades, speaking engagements, traveling dignitary appearances, water meetings, book signings, county commission hearings, city council meetings and more. As a subscriber, […]
Titans' Jeffery Simmons named potential MVP candidate
NFL analyst Kevin Patra names Tennessee Titans star Jeffery Simmons as a top MVP candidate under new coach Robert Saleh.
Political turmoil, lower pay yield small candidate pool for HTA’s top job
The Hawai‘i Tourism Authority has attracted about 60 applicants in its search for a new president and CEO, a significantly smaller candidate pool than past searches as the agency tries to recruit a leader after years of political turmoil and uncertainty about its future.
Polk County Republicans turn up the heat at Summer Sizzle rally
Polk County Republicans gathered for the Summer Sizzle fundraiser on July 25 to hear remarks from candidates up and down the ballot.
ELECTION 2026 | Texas politics: Here are 5 top-of-ballot candidates' stances on law enforcement
FORT WORTH, Texas -- Five candidates vying for three top-of-ballot offices made their appeal to law enforcement officers from over 200 counties on Tuesday at the annual Sheriffs Association of Texas conference in Fort Worth.
College Park business sees backlash after Rick Jackson visit
Metro Atlanta business owners are responding to online backlash after hosting visits from Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Jackson.
Democrats pick new Senate candidate in Maine in aftermath of Platner debacle
Troy Jackson won his party's nomination by commandeering the progressive movement that fueled Graham Platner's rise. He will face off against GOP Sen. Susan Collins in November.
Surprise candidate Shimon Blau cleared to face off against Melat Kiros in November
Unaffiliated congressional candidate Shimon Blau, a Denver doctor, has qualified by petition for the general election in Colorado’s 1st District, where Democrat Melat Kiros defeated 15-term U.S. Rep. Diana DeGette in last month’s primary, the Colorado Secretary of State’s Office said Friday. Blau, a newcomer to politics, submitted just shy of 2,000 valid signatures on […]
Unaffiliated candidate Shimon Blau will face Melat Kiros in congressional race
Unaffiliated congressional candidate Shimon Blau, a Denver doctor, has qualified by petition for the general election in Colorado’s 1st District, where Democrat Melat Kiros defeated 15-term U.S. Rep. Diana DeGette in last month’s primary, the Colorado Secretary of State’s Office said Friday. Blau, a newcomer to politics, submitted just shy of 2,000 valid signatures on […]
Democrats select South Carolina for their first 2028 presidential nominating contest
South Carolina has long been the first Southern contest and has served as a key test of candidates’ support among Black voters.
Primary voters rejected big money in politics
While we’re in an election campaign lull between now and Labor Day, we have time to consider the impact of $102 million in campaign contributions in the primary. In the general election, more money will fill candidate campaign coffers, and from the looks of things, ballot initiatives will get plenty of attention as well. The […]
Political attack bombshell rocks Tallahassee city commission races
A political sneak attack has led Jeremy Matlow's campaign manager to resign and has City Commission candidate Talethia Edwards explaining body camera video of her challenging police.
Data centers become latest flash point this Texas election cycle
As quickly as data centers are popping up in Texas, candidates from both parties are taking notice.
Small Business, Childcare And Safety: State House District 14 Candidate Q&As
The seat has three Democratic candidates on the primary ballot.
Joe Manchin reenters the political orbit with a new independent experiment
A year and a half after leaving office fed up with the major parties, former Sen. Joe Manchin is launching a new effort, the Independent Leadership Council, to recruit and support independent candidates across the country.
Partisan school board candidates must check their politics at the school door
Indiana school board candidates may affiliate with a political party in November. The winners, however, must check their politics at the school door.
New Penguins Defenseman Named Key Breakout Candidate
The Pittsburgh Penguins have experienced a handful of changes so far during the offseason, which have included the departure of goaltender Stuart Skinner to the Winnipeg Jets, along with the departures of Ryan Shea, Parker Wotherspoon, and Connor Clifton.The Penguins have also acquired Kaedan Korczak from the Vegas Golden Knights in return for Parker Wortherspoon, […] The post New Penguins Defenseman Named Key Breakout Candidate appeared first on HEAVY.
Where N.C. political candidates stand on federal data center moratorium
Data centers have become an issue in the upcoming midterm elections, and as the centers rapidly expand around the country, more and more governments are putting temporary bans in place.
This Undrafted Free Agent is 'Worth Monitoring' for Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles defense is loaded, but the Eagles have always found spots for talented, undrafted diamonds in the rough. Rookie undrafted free agent Deontae Lawson has the potential to be that, since Eagles Wire called him a candidate to potentially start at some point during the 2026 NFL season. Lawson projected as a sixth- or seventh-round draft pick by Lance Zierlein of NFL.com, yet he went unselected among the 257 players chosen in Pittsburgh in April.
A CNN exclusive: Michigan GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers says he likes his chances against one specific Democrat
Midterm voting preferences by race and ethnicity, age, and other demographics
This is part of a larger report on Americans and the 2026 midterm elections. Several months ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats hold a 6 percentage point edge over Republicans among registered voters on the generic ballot for Congress (43% vs. 37%). Two-in-ten voters say they are not sure (14%) or support another candidate […]
Maxwell: Dear Lord, protect us from politicians who politick in your name
Maxwell: God on her side? An Orange County school board candidate who has waged campaigns to ban books and end pride celebrations says that, if she wins, it will show that ‘God always gets the victory’
Breaking down Phillies' trade deadline candidates
The Phillies have clear deadline needs, but with most of MLB still in the race, finding the right fit could take creativity.
In private call, Michigan Republican running for Senate sees himself in ‘good shape’ against one particular Democrat
As Michigan Democrats debate who is their best candidate for Senate, the presumptive Republican nominee, Mike Rogers, has a frank private assessment of the field.
Vermont political candidates are flouting campaign finance laws, report finds
Vermont law requires candidates for state, county and municipal offices to disclose the sources of their campaign contributions, but a new report finds that 20% of candidates running this year haven't filed reports.
Gen Z doesn't want normal politics. It wants results
Young voters on the left and right are drawn to candidates who promise disruption, authenticity and economic change.
Politics in the Park: Property taxes, data centers and maternal care dominate House candidate forum
CASPER, Wyo. — Divisions emerged Wednesday as eight Republican candidates vying for four Wyoming House seats sparred over how deeply to cut property
Bolton Vows To Put Law Above Politics
GOP candidate for attorney general dishes on "Dateline."
Will Jared Goff Contend for NFL MVP in 2026?
If the Detroit Lions win the NFC North, earn the No. 1 seed, and Jared Goff posts another outstanding statistical season, he could emerge as a legitimate NFL MVP candidate.
Letter | Tom Tiffany is the pro-business candidate we need
Dear Editor: I recently read the letter to the editor titled, "Tom Tiffany's anti-worker, anti-business owner agenda," and as a Wisconsin small business owner, I felt compelled to respond.
Maine Senate race poll shows statistical tie between Jackson and Collins
Among independents, 46% chose Jackson, 42% picked Collins and 12% are either undecided or choosing another candidate.
Analysis | How a Democratic candidate’s volatility could shape a key Senate race
Troy Jackson has a tough road ahead.
Trump-backed candidates, 2020 election deniers, win Arizona primaries
The primaries set the field for what are expected to be heated contests for Congress and governor in a swing state this fall.
Political analyst on candidates in special GOP primary election for US Senate
FOX Carolina's Justin Dougherty speaks with political analyst Nate Luepp on campaign challenges for many candidates.
Breaking down N.C. U.S. Senate candidates' latest finance reports
With fundraising numbers in the millions, one expert breaks down what it means for the election, the role outside donors will play and much more.
Ex-Giants Draft Pick Considered Breakout Coach For Broncos
The post-Tom Coughlin New York Giants culture has been horrible, but Davis Webb evidently learned a thing or two. The Giants' third-round pick of the 2017 NFL Draft was named as a breakout coaching candidate, while serving as the Denver Broncos offensive coordinator under ex-Giants coordinator Sean Payton. Webb spent two tours with the Giants, initially backing up both Eli Manning and Geno Smith during the controversial 2017 season under Ben McAdoo.
Giants Coaching Holdover Named Potential Breakout Candidate in 2026
John Harbaugh has a knack for developing elite coaching minds, and ironically one of the New York Giants' best is a guy who has been in the facility for years. Outside linebackers coach Charlie Bullen, who has spent the past two years coaching the Giants' edge unit, was named as an assistant coach to watch by The Athletic. Bullen was initially hired by since-fired head coach Brian Daboll, yet he survived the cultural purge from Harbaugh, who even added "run-game coordinator" to his title.
Maine gubernatorial candidates differ on debate format
Democrat Hannah Pingree announced a slate of four televised debates sponsored by local news outlets.
Clint Reilly, influential SF political strategist and San Francisco Examiner owner, dies at 79
For decades, Clint Reilly was one of the most influential figures operating behind the scenes of Bay Area politics, managing campaigns for Nancy Pelosi, Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein, advising candidates and helping professionalize a political consulting industry that would grow into a year-round enterprise. He died Sunday at 79.
Washington’s 3rd District could be among the most competitive House seats this fall
Nine candidates are running in the state’s August primary, but only two will emerge from that race to compete in November. It’s one of just 18 around the country that’s considered a toss-up.
Election live updates: Arizona Governor Hobbs’ GOP challenger on the ballot as voters hit the polls
Follow live coverage as Arizona voters pick their favorite candidates for midterms. Get the latest as primaries underway for governor, House districts, secretary of state and more.
MAGA candidates keep losing in Arizona. Andy Biggs is out to break the trend
The fronrunner for the GOP nomination for governor hopes he fares better than MAGA-aligned Blake Masters and Kari Lake did in their recent statewide contests.
Democratic candidates discuss inclusive politics, bumpy primary campaign
The forum took place with just three weeks to go before the primary election and following a massive shakeup in the race last week.
Gainesville group discusses local politics, upcoming primary at brewery meeting
‘Gainesville Is for People’ reviewed a recent candidate forum and talked issues affecting the city
Jaguars LB Ventrell Miller Named as Breakout Candidate
After overcoming a career-threatening injury, the hard-hitting linebacker is poised to anchor Jacksonville’s defense, stepping into a starting role fueled by elite run-stopping grades and surging coverage potential.
Gainesville group discusses local politics, upcoming primary at brewery meeting
‘Gainesville Is for People’ reviewed a recent candidate forum and talked issues affecting the city
AI-generated political ad in St. Charles County raises deepfake questions ahead of primary election
With two weeks until Election Day, a fully AI-generated political ad targeting candidates in the St. Charles County executive race is drawing scrutiny over the role of deepfakes in local elections
Campaign photo puts Toast on Lenox in political crosshairs
Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Jackson visited the Atlanta restaurant and posted photos with the co-owner.
Warren’s latest ‘kiss of death’ endorsement sparks mockery over disastrous political picks
Elizabeth Warren's endorsement of Abdul El Sayed in the Michigan Democratic primary sparks backlash over her track record with failed candidates.
Penguins Interested in Using Connections to Land 44-Point Center
The Pittsburgh Penguins are interested in landing one of the top trade candidates in the market. It was recently revealed that the Seattle Kraken are moving on from Shane Wright this summer. Seattle previously drafted the center with the fourth-overall pick in the 2024 NHL draft. Despite lofty expectations, he regressed during the most recent […] The post Penguins Interested in Using Connections to Land 44-Point Center appeared first on HEAVY.
Trump ally to run for two offices at same time, including Lindsey Graham’s seat
The South Carolina Election Commission clarified last week that candidates can appear on general election ballots for multiple offices.
5 breakout candidates for the Patriots in 2026
Here are five breakout candidates to keep an eye on when the Patriots start training camp later this week.
Shaky political "science": breakdown of the peer review process
[This article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in December 2025, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting (RCV). Many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first four articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report; the second one analyzed a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report; a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research; and a fourth article that analyzed seven studies sponsored by New America’s political reform program that deployed flawed methodology based on “simulated” elections instead of real-world elections, which when combined with some basic misunderstandings of RCV, produced odd and misleading results]. In this fifth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we examine two flawed studies on the impact of RCV on voter turnout authored by San Francisco State University professor Jason McDaniel. McDaniel’s research in these two papers stands out for its puzzling methodology, inadequate and cherry-picked data, and faulty analyses that not only misunderstands ranked choice voting but reflects a basic misunderstanding of politics in general. The first of the McDaniel studies actually passed through a peer review process and then was subsequently published by the Journal of Urban Affairs, despite its obvious errors. It is perplexing that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the errors and send it back to McDaniel for a rewrite or outright rejection. This calls into question the credibility of the peer review process itself. The peer review process is supposed to represent the intellectual pinnacle of the profession – a way for academics to certify the quality of each other’s work, and to act as a check against sloppy research. In the case of the McDaniel study, the peer review process failed. Yet his flawed study has been cited dozens of times by other political scientists in their own flawed works — an unvirtuous circle of academic research. Here is the first Jason McDaniel study that we analyzed: “Writing the Rules to Rank the Candidates: Examining the Impact of Instant-Runoff Voting on Racial Group Turnout in San Francisco Mayoral Elections,” by Jason McDaniel, 2016, Journal of Urban Affairs. This study covered San Francisco’s use of ranked choice voting (RCV) in mayoral elections, purporting to show that RCV reduces voter turnout overall, increases voter errors, and has a negative impact on “marginal populations,” i.e. racial minorities, mainly as the result of the alleged complexity of RCV asking voters to rank candidates and having to be familiar with multiple candidates and related dynamics. McDaniel reached these conclusions by examining five San Francisco mayoral elections taking place in odd years (i.e. where there are no federal or state races on the ballot) from 1995 to 2011, comparing three earlier non-RCV races (in 1995, 1999 and 2003) with the later two RCV races (in 2007 and 2011). Only two RCV races were studied, and as McDaniel acknowledged, only the contest in 2011 was “competitive” (that contest in 2007 was the first mayoral election using RCV, and incumbent mayor Gavin Newsom won easily in the first round of counting, earning 74% of first choices and far ahead of the second place candidate who had just 6.3% of first choices). Yet even the allegedly competitive contest in 2011was won by an incumbent with a landslide margin of nearly 20 points. No other elections were studied by McDaniel, even though San Francisco elects 17 other offices besides mayor with RCV, including the 11 seats on the Board of Supervisors (the name for the city council) in even years, and six other citywide offices in odd years. Previous academic research has found that competitive elections can stimulate greater voter involvement and higher turnout. For unexplained reasons, this study ignored at least 34 other RCV races between the years 2004 to 2011, many of which were very competitive and had high voter turnout. Instead, McDaniel’s analysis based its conclusions on data from only a single, marginally-competitive mayor’s race using RCV. These 2007 and 2011 mayoral elections were the only two RCV elections that McDaniel used as the sole basis for his small data set to determine the impact of RCV on voter turnout. Despite having no meaningful data to inform his study, McDaniel nonetheless concluded that RCV lowered turnout when compared to the previous three mayoral non-RCV elections using two-round runoffs. Then, using the same inadequate database of San Francisco elections, McDaniel also found that “Instant-runoff voting is associated with a significant decline in Black voter turnout and White voter turnout…On average, Black voter turnout decreases by 18 points and White voter turnout decreases by 16 points …” But how could he credibly arrive at that conclusion when his study was based on voter turnout in two RCV contests that were not even remotely competitive? Beyond that, McDaniel tacitly admits that the key determining factor driving Black voter turnout was not RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable Black candidate. McDaniel wrote, “Black voter turnout was about 17 percentage points higher for the two elections that featured an African American candidate compared to the three elections that did not” — but one of those three elections did not use RCV. The same dynamic was present for White voter turnout, in which higher turnout was not correlated with RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable White candidate. Beyond that, McDaniel’s voter turnout results, whether correlated with the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections, showed no clear patterns. In his Figure 1, he shows low Asian voter turnout in the non-RCV elections in 1999 and 2003 when there was no viable Asian candidate running, but in the 2007 mayoral election using RCV, there is still no viable Asian candidate, yet Asian turnout increases dramatically. For Latinos, voter turnout is virtually the same in 1999 (no viable Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2003 (leading Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2007 (no viable Latino candidate, RCV elections) and 2011 (leading Latino candidate, RCV elections). Meanwhile White voter turnout increased dramatically from a low in the 2007 mayoral election, in which the leading candidate was a white incumbent, to the 2011 election in which there were no leading white candidates that finished any higher than sixth place with 5.6% of the vote. Clearly other factors were determining voter turnout than either the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections. Despite these inconsistent findings, McDaniel boldly marches forth to render conclusions about the impact of RCV on different groups of racial voters, even though his conclusions are not remotely supported by his data. This looks like the worst kind of “data cherry picking” to cover up a puzzling conclusion based on a poor data set involving only two RCV elections, neither of which were remotely competitive. McDaniel’s cherry picking didn’t stop there. In calculating voter turnout for the three non-RCV mayoral elections in 1995, 1999 and 2003, he failed to mention that in each of these years there was a two-round runoff election, with a first round election in November in which no candidate garnered a winning majority of the vote, followed by the decisive runoff in December. So there were two non-RCV elections in each election year. But McDaniel only decided to include one of the two elections in his data set, apparently the December runoff in each year (which had higher turnout in two out of the three mayor’s races, and lower turnout in the third). So he ignored the November 1995 election, the November 1999 election when turnout was only 45 percent, and the November 2003 election when turnout was only 45.7 percent. This is flawed methodology based on blatant cherry picking, since McDaniel simply omitted three elections worth of data that did not fit within his frame. His study should never have made it through a peer review process, and it is an embarrassment to political science that not only was it approved for publication, but it has been uncritically cited by dozens of other political scientists. Share A “study” without wider context or credible data Lacking a data set that included even a single competitive RCV mayoral race, McDaniel declared that RCV lowered voter turnout in 2011, when turnout was 42.5 percent. But he also ignored -- or did not realize -- that voter turnout in mayoral elections during 2011 had sharply declined in all big cities, including far more steeply in nearby Los Angeles and other cities. In fact, San Francisco’s election in 2011 had the second highest turnout of any mayoral election in the nation’s 22 largest cities from 2008-2011. Was 2011 just a particularly low turnout year all across the country, perhaps because the country was still reeling from the aftermath of the housing market collapse in 2008-2010? McDaniel ignored this factor and did not search for alternative explanations beyond his flawed thesis. Furthermore, while McDaniel suggested that RCV leads to more “overvotes” – which is an invalidated ballot in which a voter, in either a non-RCV or RCV race, makes a mistake and selects two candidates for a single choice – he failed to address that in the June 2012 US Senate primary contest, which used the typical “one-choice” plurality method and did not use RCV, there was more than five times as many overvotes in San Francisco and Oakland than in the RCV mayoral elections in those cities. Additionally, turnout had been significantly higher and more representative in RCV elections for the San Francisco Board of Supervisors races -- that McDaniel didn’t even bother to study -- as compared to previous “delayed two-round runoffs” for those offices, often higher by as much as 40% in the RCV races. Perhaps the most surprising irony was that an earlier study co-authored by McDaniel (Overvoting and the Equality of Voice under Instant-Runoff Voting in San Francisco by Francis Neely and Jason McDaniel, 2015, California Journal of Politics and Policy) found that overvotes are often more common in lower-income precincts, but that the pattern of overvoting is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. Wrote Neely and McDaniel: “[Overvote] errors appear to be a function of complexity in general and not IRV per se…. the pattern of overvoting is similar in both IRV and non-IRV contests…Even among votes cast in a top-of-the-ticket race like U.S. Senate, overvoting occurs in an uneven fashion” (IRV, or ‘instant runoff voting,’ is another name for ranked choice voting in single-winner contests). So McDaniel not only contradicted his own conclusion in his earlier study with Neely, but the earlier study had been an important corrective for one of the most frequently made mistakes made by anti-RCV political scientists – a continual failure to provide crucial context by pairing a comparative analysis of real world RCV elections with an analysis of real world plurality or other electoral methods. Unfortunately McDaniel’s earlier study does not get cited much by other researchers, and McDaniel did not even cite it in his own flawed study analyzed above. Incredibly, McDaniel cherrypicked McDaniel, even as his flawed study has been cited dozens of times. Despite being a textbook example of poor political “science,” featuring both inadequate as well as cherrypicked data, the shelf life of McDaniel’s study has been extended endlessly by other political scientists and media outlets who have cited it uncritically. Equally troubling, the Journal of Urban Affairs put this paper through its peer review process and published it despite its numerous flaws. McDaniel gets it wrong, Part II Not content with producing one shoddy, confused paper, McDaniel produced another one a few years later, here is the link: Electoral Rules and Voter Turnout in Mayoral Elections: An Analysis of Ranked-Choice Voting by Jason McDaniel. San Francisco State Univ. (McDaniel, 2019). In this paper, McDaniel extended his previous flawed research focused on San Francisco, about voter turnout and voter impact, to multiple RCV cities through the 2018 elections. In his data set he included San Francisco, Minneapolis, St Paul, Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro and Santa Fe. He then compared their turnout in mayoral elections to non-RCV cities, and to mayoral elections in those cities held before first RCV usage, and concluded “a significant decrease in voter turnout of approximately 3–5 percentage points in RCV cities after the implementation of RCV.” But he replicated many of the same mistakes as his first study presented above. While in this study McDaniel attempted to distinguish between various factors, such as odd year vs. even year elections, competitive races vs. noncompetitive, contests with open seats and other factors, the analysis is superficial and inadequate. He attempts to incorporate so many often-conflicting variables that his conclusions are once again unsupported by the actual data, and ultimately unconvincing (this second study never underwent a peer review process). For example, McDaniel declared that for RCV cities “in elections that are more competitive than average (margin of victory less than 20%), there is no significant RCV effect on voter turnout.” Yet McDaniel is a professor in a city, San Francisco, in which the 2018 special election using RCV to fill a mayoral vacancy was exceedingly close, decided by a margin of only one percentage point, and resulted in the second highest turnout in San Francisco history for a mayoral election. Illustrating the complexity involved in assessing the critical factors in turnout, that special election was held on the same election day as federal and state offices, which tends to boost turnout. Yet more voters participated in that RCV mayoral election than voted on the same day in the non-RCV primary for governor in which former San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom was running. Even more puzzling, in this study McDaniel inaccurately cited his own previous study from 2015 with Neely. McDaniel wrote, “Neely and McDaniel (2015) examine individual ballot image files within a natural experiment, and find higher rates of ballot errors in RCV elections compared to non-RCV elections” (emphasis added). However, we quoted from that 2015 study several paragraphs above, and in actual fact Neely and McDaniel actually concluded the opposite -- that the pattern of overvoting – which is the most common form of ballot error – is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. McDaniel also ignored the fact that in Bay Area RCV elections held in even years – at the same time as federal and state elections, when turnout is highest -- the “undervote” (that is, the dropoff in ballots cast for governor or mayor) has declined, which contradicts his thesis that the act of ranking ballots in RCV elections is too complex and presents a barrier for certain demographics of voters. To his credit, McDaniel actually acknowledged another contradiction in his own paper, which found a negative RCV turnout effect in some odd-year elections but not others, admitting that “may present a challenge to the theory that increased complexity [from RCV] will have a marginal negative effect on voter turnout.” But he tried to wallpaper over that contradiction by blaming it on an unlikely source -- bad election administration. McDaniels wrote, “This would suggest that the negative impact of RCV on voter participation may be alleviated by high quality election administration,” without presenting any data or even anecdotes to support such an unfounded theory. While competent election administration of any election, whether RCV or non-RCV, is crucially important, there is no credible research that supports the far-fetched notion that the quality of election administration has much of an impact on voter turnout in US elections, whether using RCV or otherwise. Upgrade to a $5 subscription The unvirtuous circle of academic research It is puzzling how McDaniel’s first study could have survived the peer review process for the Journal of Urban Affairs. The mistakes in McDaniel’s first study above should have been obvious to anyone with a basic understanding of ranked choice voting as well as elections in general, and elections in San Francisco specifically. It undermines faith in the credibility of the peer review process to think that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the egregious errors and reject McDaniel’s sloppy research and paper. And it remains a black mark on political science that this thoroughly discredited study has been cited dozens of times by other researchers. Indeed, in our research paper it became apparent that many political scientists cite each other’s flawed research to pad their list of citations and to legitimize their own flawed research, creating an unvirtuous circle of political science. More broadly, McDaniel’s voter turnout studies, like other studies evaluating RCV’s impact on turnout, lacked a recognition that no credible opinion or research can claim that RCV increases voter turnout merely because so many voters are excited to vote for their favorite candidates instead of “lesser evil” candidates without worrying about spoilers. Instead, with respect to turnout, the advantage of RCV has always been that, in most places where it has been used, it has eliminated a pre-November primary or post-November runoff, which usually saw about half the turnout of the November general election. This is especially true during even years when there are state and federal elections on the ballot which substantially drive turnout more than local contests. Any study that does not adequately account for this non-November primary/runoff vs November general election dynamic, or odd year vs even year election factors, is simply not credible. Both of McDaniel’s studies largely failed on those grounds. Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to a $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS…your digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
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Troy Jackson gains momentum to replace Platner as Democrats' Senate candidate in Maine
Former Maine lawmaker Troy Jackson has moved into a strong position to replace Graham Platner as the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Maine after several of his opponents dropped out of the race
Troy Jackson gains momentum to replace Platner as Democrats' Senate candidate in Maine
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