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Live Nation Entertainment Schedules First Quarter 2026 Earnings Release And Teleconference
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE: LYV), the world's leading live entertainment company, will release its first quarter 2026 financial results after market hours on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Michael Rapino, Live Nation Entertainment's President and Chief Executive Officer, will host a teleconference that day at 2:00 p.m. PT (5:00 p.m. ET) to discuss the company's financial performance, operational outlook, and other forward-looking matters.
Despite Fast-paced Momentum, AMC Entertainment (AMC) Is Still a Bargain Stock
AMC Entertainment (AMC) made it through our 'Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain' screen and could be a great choice for investors looking for stocks that have gai
GOP strategists required to sign NDAs at meeting on midterm plans
The unusual secrecy surrounding the Waldorf Astoria meeting has frustrated some looking for funding clues as Trump’s popularity has dropped to near historic lows.
Pixel phones are seeing unusual battery drain after the latest update — and Google is looking into it
Google has acknowledged the issue and is investigating a fix.
Mississippi Better Business Bureau warns of travel scam surge ahead of Memorial Day weekend
Officials said crooks are using fake travel sites and social media listings to steal money from people looking for travel deals.
Columbus makes bid for NWSL team. Get the latest updates here
A group of potential owners that includes the Haslam Sports Group, Dr. Pete Edwards and Nationwide Insurance has been looking to bring professional women's soccer to Columbus.
‘Is it life? We can’t tell’: Nasa’s Curiosity rover finds organic molecules on Mars
Scientists think they are looking at chemical building blocks of life preserved for 3.5bn years
Which Premier League players are out of contract this summer?
With a World Cup summer fast approaching, BBC Sport looks at which Premier League stars may be looking for new clubs.
The U.S. health care system is built around looking backward
A reconstruction layer has fallen on medicine. It asks: Was the original decision justified?
Bills urged to roll the dice in NFL Draft
The Bills might be looking to fix their Keon Coleman mistake.
'It's a tragedy:' New Mexico family loses home, business and dog in fire
"Nobody knew if we were here or not—so people were looking for us because they were concerned that we were inside," Emilia Montoya told KOAT.
Binghamton native announces plans for new entertainment venue
BINGHAMTON, N.Y. (WIVT/WBGH) -A Binghamton native who had a successful career in finance in the Boston area is looking to invest in his hometown. Nate Levy recently purchased the former CVS drugstore ...
Draymond Green eyeing three more years in NBA after encouraging Warriors season
Warriors star Draymond Green shared he is looking to play for three more years in the NBA after an encouraging 2025-26 season with Golden State.
Inside Iowa Politics: Why Iowa’s secretary of state doesn’t want big election changes
Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate is not looking for major changes to election laws, despite an executive order from President Donald Trump that could force significant alterations to the voting process.
Inside Iowa Politics: Why Iowa’s secretary of state doesn’t want big election changes
Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate is not looking for major changes to election laws, despite an executive order from President Donald Trump that could force significant alterations to the voting process.
Inside Iowa Politics: Why Iowa’s secretary of state doesn’t want big election changes
Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate is not looking for major changes to election laws, despite an executive order from President Donald Trump that could force significant alterations to the voting process.
The Shreveport Mass Killing Isn’t Just About “Mental Health”
When a man shoots his wife and children, the term you are looking for is patriarchy.
Have a small biz? Apply to be at Downtown Detroit Markets this this holiday season
Organizers of the popular holiday markets in Cadillac Square are looking for product-based Detroit businesses to feature at this year's activation.
Eagles trade rumor could lead to deal with Vikings
The Philadelphia Eagles are reportedly looking to be active in the trade market during the 2026 NFL Draft, and the Minnesota Vikings might be in their crosshairs. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Eagles general manager Howie Roseman is plotting to…
2026 Best Business Schools | Total Cost & Scholarships At P&Q’s Ranked Business Schools
Looking at tuition and fees alone, earning a business degree from a ranked program now costs more than $200,000 at 49 U.S. schools,
Where to watch OKC Thunder NBA Playoffs? See these hot spots
If you're looking to watch the Thunder with other fans this NBA Playoffs, here are the best places to catch a game.
Coachella wraps up today with Karol G.
This is also your last chance to catch any performances you might have missed. Last week I missed out on Clipse, Young Thug, The Rapture, and Tomora, so they’re my priority. But I also am looking forward to Röyksopp, who didn’t make the stream last weekend. Head over to the official Coachella YouTube channel. [Image: https://platform.theverge.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/Coachella-2026-Livestream-Set-Times-Weekend-2-V3-Sunday-April-19.jpg?quality=90&strip=all]
Bloom Where You’re Planted event helps families grow food, boost health in underserved area
Families looking for fresh ideas to stretch their grocery budget and eat a little healthier found plenty to dig into earlier today at a free community event cen
Best Meta Glasses (2026): Ray-Ban, Oakley, AR
Meta is unquestionably winning the face-wearable war. Can you trust the company? Maybe not. But these are some of the nicest glasses I've ever worn.
Browns were also reportedly looking into Dexter Lawrence trade
There is an alternate timeline that would be much worse for the Bengals.
Luxury Brands Bet on the Middle East. War Has Damaged Their Plans.
High-end brands such as Louis Vuitton and Hermès are looking to other regions as sales in Persian Gulf nations plummet.
A New Museum in California Aims to Draw Children to Science
The $7 million KidSTREAM museum was the brainchild of a former teacher looking for a place to entertain her young daughters.
Louisiana experts in smoking cessation are looking to take on its next foe: vaping
In 2025, the state reported an all-time low for cigarette smoking, down to a rate of 15.7% of Louisiana adults. Louisiana experts say similar methods could help lower vape use across young adults.
Things to do in Cincinnati this week, April 20-26
If you're looking for the best events happening in Cincinnati, you're at the right place. Find your next concert, game, festival or family event.
Louisville denies Sporting Jax men in last-minute finish
Sporting Jax men's soccer is still looking for its first victory, after a last-minute loss to Louisville City in the USL Championship.
AMC Entertainment price target raised to $2 from $1.50 at B. Riley
B. Riley raised the firm’s price target on AMC Entertainment (AMC) to $2 from $1.50 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Industry box office revenue rose 22% year over year in the period, outperforming expectations and driven by strong releases in March, particularly Project Hail Mary, alongside solid contributions from Scream 7 and Hoppers, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Looking ahead to Q2, box office is expected to grow slightly, with gains in June offset by weaker April
“Looking into this” as Xbox’s new CEO steps in after an Insider update reportedly bricks a Series S and raises fresh concerns
A user part of the Xbox Insider Program claims a recent update bricked their Series S, prompting a direct response from CEO Asha Sharma.
Central Texas business owners looking for answers after closure of Painted Tree boutiques
Painted Tree Boutiques has suddenly shut down operations nationwide. The abrupt closure is leaving many local vendors searching for answers and a new place to go next.
Denver Pro Teams Advancing Sports, Entertainment Districts
Denver pro sports teams are looking to develop top-shelf sports and entertainment districts. The Denver Business Journal reports the Broncos, Colorado Avalanche, Denver Nuggets and Denver Summit FC are planning new stadiums and large mixed-use developments around their stadiums. The teams will come close to 500 acres of development between them. The Broncos plan to ...
The release date for Ubisoft's Assassin's Creed: Black Flag remake, Resynced, seems to have leaked, and it's reportedly not very far away
The release date for the upcoming Assassin's Creed: Black Flag remake seems to have leaked, and the game is reportedly setting sail this summer.
Nebraska men’s basketball transfer Sam Orme looking to make an impact
Nebraska men's basketball got former Belmont Bruin, Sam Orme for their upcoming season. After losing Berke Büyüktuncel to teh transfer portal, Orme is just what they needed.
Amazon will reportedly never release another new Android-based Fire TV Stick — It’s Vega OS only from this point on
With this week's disappointing release of the new Fire TV Stick HD, Amazon's second streaming device to run its Vega operating system, the future of Android-based Fire TVs is looking bleak.
Kennedy Says US Health Agency Has 72,000 Staff, up From 62,000 After DOGE Cuts
WASHINGTON, April 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said on Thursday his department now has 72,000 employees and is looking to hire 12,000 more to make up for cuts led by the Department of Government Efficiency. The department had ...
Union coach Eta wants focus on football after landmark appointment
Union Berlin coach Marie-Louise Eta said Thursday she was looking forward to questions about football rather than her pioneering role as the first female manager of a men's team in a top European league. Eta, who became the first female assistant coach in Bundesliga history at Union in 2023, is still slated to take over the club's women's team in the summer regardless of how the men's side finishes the season.
UNC Hussman offers new sports play-by-play class | UNC Hussman School of Journalism and Media
This story, written by UNC Hussman alumna Caroline Daly ’24, was originally published on unc.edu. The UNC Hussman School of Journalism and Media has a new, hands-on class available for students interested in sports careers. Students in “MEJO 390: Sports Commentary and Play-By-Play” can call live radio broadcasts for Carolina sporting events, streamed live on the Go Heels website. This spring, 11 students are calling mostly softball games to gain experience and learn the preparation needed for a successful broadcast. The class is capped at a small number to provide consistent, individual feedback. Matt Krause, the radio voice of Carolina women’s basketball, teaches the class to help students sharpen their skills, using his experience with the Tar Heels and calling games for ACC Network and ACC Network Extra. “There is no substitute for live reps, and that is the only way you get better. The classroom component teaches you how to get better, but going about that requires sitting in that chair, making mistakes and being able to know your broadcast is going somewhere,” Krause said. “These students are doing real live games, and they will have tape where if they want to pursue this. They will have ready-made demos to send for jobs. Being able to utilize all the resources of UNC, GoHeels Productions and the Carolina Athletics brand and create these opportunities for students is really impactful.” In the class, students learn fundamentals like how to announce starting lineups for different sports and how to conduct research before games. Krause has led the class in mock preparation exercises, looking at game charts with information about the different teams and players that they can refer to at pivotal moments during the game. Krause and the students then critique each other, listening to clips from the past week to find ways to improve. It’s a rare class without a slew of quizzes or assignments. Their main tasks are calling games and making a portfolio or demo reel of their best calls at the end of the semester, all with the goal of being ready to step into similar roles after graduation. Laible live streams her coverage on the GoHeels website. Calling a live game while broadcasting her coverage allows her to get hands on experience. (Jon Gardiner/UNC-Chapel Hill) Junior Anna Laible ’27 wished for a class just like this. Her first year at Carolina, she interned with the Coastal Plain League, where she was introduced to play-by-play for baseball. “I enjoy the challenge and uncertainty of each game being different because each sport looks a little different,” said Laible. “Each game is different — not just with teams but what could happen with certain records being broken or random trends. That’s what I enjoy most.” She wanted more opportunities for reps during college to prepare for a career after Carolina, so she pitched an idea for the class to Livis Freeman ’99, distinguished associate professor of sports communication. Laible and Freeman reached out to GoHeels Productions for a partnership and then connected with Krause. “This is how at UNC Hussman we separate ourselves: Our students go into the field ready,” said Freeman. “The biggest compliment we get it is when our students start their careers, they don’t need any hand-holding.” Laible calls a Carolina softball game at Kessing Stadium – after pitching the idea to Hussman faculty. Her interest in sports commentary allowed her to apply her interest as she attends Carolina. (Jon Gardiner/UNC-Chapel Hill) Laible is now a student in the class, which has helped her strengthen her skills and deepen her passion for the field. The goal is to expand to other sports like soccer, lacrosse and field hockey. “The hands-on experience I’ve gotten here is invaluable. I’ve loved the classes and professors because they’ve taught me a lot, but it’s also the things outside of class, too, that have helped me grow,” said Laible. “Since being at UNC, I’ve grown a lot in the versatility, from doing writing to production and commentating. UNC Hussman and Carolina have given me the ability to be strong and well rounded.”
Netflix Q1 earnings preview: Analysts bullish on price hikes, ads
Netflix is getting back to basics after bowing out of the bidding war for Warner Bros. and is looking to expand its ad tier.
Dodgers vs. Mets game III chat
The Dodgers conclude their three-game series against the New York Mets on Jackie Robinson Day, looking to get a sweep and take five of six games on the homestand. Shohei Ohtani makes his third start of the season against right-hander Clay Holmes. Ohtani will only be on the mound on Wednesday, as Dalton Rushing is […]
White House looking into growing list of ‘missing scientists’
Theories have circulated online after about ten scientists disappeared or died since 2024
Entertainment company with ties to BTS looking for fresh K-pop stars
A company will host auditions next month in Orange County and LA in hopes of discovering the next biggest K-pop stars.
Kenny Atkinson provides update on Cavs health before heading into series vs. Raptors
Things are looking up for the Cavs heading into the postseason.
Google rolls out a native Gemini app for Mac
You can share anything on their screen with Gemini to get help with what they're looking at in the moment, including local files
A negative side effect of ultra-processed foods you haven't thought about
Eating ultra-processed food is associated with negative health outcomes, but a new study is looking at an underexplored impact: muscle health.
MrBeast is seeking his first CMO to help build an entertainment giant
MrBeast's Beast Industries has been on a hiring spree lately and is now looking for a top marketer to expand its entertainment and product lines.
UCF Materials Science Undergraduate Researcher Awarded DOE Internship at National Lab
Deneé Lichtenberg is advancing new methods for recovering rare earth metals — groundbreaking work she’ll continue at Los Alamos National Laboratory.
Pre-draft picture: Packers looking for better health at running back
Josh Jacobs played banged up in 2025, MarShawn Lloyd still trying to get going
Millions of people are pretending to be AI chatbots
Websites like youraislopbores.me have become playgrounds for people looking for light relief in a bot-heavy world.
City of Eufaula looking for input from local business owners
The City of Eufaula is seeking input from local business owners and operators.
Can WR prospect with question marks fix 49ers WR corps?
The San Francisco 49ers have added two veterans wideouts to their room, but now they're looking at intriguing prospect in the 2026 NFL draft.
Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona, Champions League: Preview
Barça travel to the capital looking to overturn a two-goal deficit and book a spot in the semis
Vance had two high-profile opportunities to prove himself. Both fell flat
In the latter half of 2025, Vice President JD Vance’s future as the next Republican presidential nominee was looking fairly promising. It’s been a series of unfortunate events since then.
Derek Dixon commits to Arizona
UNC will be looking for a new point guard for next season. Derek Dixon, who entered his name into the transfer portal last week, has committed to the University of Arizona and Tommy Lloyd. The freshman averaged 6.5 points per game and led the Tar Heels in assists after he wrestled the starting point guard […]
Morgan Wallen’s Tuscaloosa show is this weekend: Secure last-minute ticket deals before they sell out
Country music star Morgan Wallen will be in Tuscaloosa, Alabama this weekend for the next stop on his Still The Problem North American tour. Concertgoers still looking for tickets can find limited seats available.
BYU professor seeks to improve local political outreach
Looking to reform local political efforts in Utah County, Darin Self has a community-based approach to getting people involved in politics.
Suspect allegedly steals 26 pounds of honey from Weld County business
The Weld County Sheriff’s Office is looking for a thief who allegedly stole 26 pounds of honey from a business over the weekend.
Moving Sioux Falls Forward: The Bancorp Bank
The future of financial services is being built in Sioux Falls, thanks to forward-looking businesses like The Bancorp.
Poll: Will Steph Curry and the Warriors Advance?
The NBA play-in tournament begins Tuesday, with eight teams looking to advance in the NBA playoffs. On Tuesday, the Phoenix Suns (7 seed) host the Portland Trail Blazers (8), and the Charlotte Hornets (9) host the Miami Heat (10). On Wednesday, the Philadelphia 76ers (7) host the Orlando Magic (8), and the Los Angeles Clippers (9) host the Golden State Warriors (10).
Hospitals roll out chatbots, looking to reclaim their role in patients' health conversations
A handful of hospitals are launching their own chatbots, a risky bet aimed at better serving current patients and gaining new ones.
3 Steelers poised for their first All-Pro in 2026
Looking ahead to 2026, here are our favorite three Steelers to be named and All-Pro for the first time.
BIZNOTE: After almost a quarter-century, Avalon Glassworks looking for new ownership for their unique West Seattle business
By Tracy Record West Seattle Blog editor More change is on the way for the heart of the Luna Park mini-business district. Shannon Felix and Jon Felix are looking for new ownership for Avalon Glassworks, which they've owned for 23 of its 33 years at 2914 SW Avalon Way. Their one-of-a-kind business - West Seattle's only commercial ...
Op-Ed: Protecting Taxpayers Means Looking Beyond the Politics of Short-Term Rentals
Santa Barbara is on the verge of making a consequential decision about short-term rentals—but without first answering a basic question: what will it cost?
Dodgers Announce Lineup For Rangers Sweep Attempt
The Los Angeles Dodgers are looking to go undefeated against the Texas Rangers and complete the regular-season series sweep.
The Complex Transformations Underlying MC Escher’s Works
Self-similar images are rather common, which are images in which the same image is repeated on a smaller scale somewhere within the image that one is looking at, something which is also referred to…
Things to do in Cincinnati this week, April 13-19
If you're looking for the best events happening in Cincinnati, you're at the right place. Find your next concert, game, festival or family event.
Previewing the 2026 season for Penn State TE Brian Kortovich
Brian Kortovich is a young, talented tight end looking to carve out a role in Penn State’s new-look tight end room.
Ryan Day reveals Ohio State's extreme recruiting standards
During a recent podcast experience, Ryan Day raised eyebrows when he said the Buckeyes are only looking for future first and second-round draft picks.
China's Chery looking to expand car production in Europe, top executives say
Chery is looking to expand car production in Europe through partnerships with other automakers allowing it to use existing factories, top executives at the Chinese carmaker said at an event in Paris.
Athletics finding reasons to celebrate while Mets looking for answers
The Athletics went viral with a new home run celebration Saturday as they locked up a winning road trip to New York.
Protecting Taxpayers Means Looking Beyond the Politics of Short-Term Rentals
Santa Barbara is on the verge of making a consequential decision about short-term rentals — but without first answering a basic question: What will it cost?
Seniors: Dennis Ouellette, 80
Ontario Orchards owner not slowing down as he grows his farm market By Stefan Yablonski The seeds for Dennis Ouellette’s career path were sown when he was 6 years old — and he isn’t slowing down. “Since age 6, I grew up an agriculturalist. That is 72 years. Started out with a 37-acre farm when I bought it from my parents and built it up to almost 300 acres. Brought it back down to around 200 acres now,” he said. The location of his business was just a barn, a horse barn, he said. “In 1967, it officially became Ontario Orchards Farm Market. My wife [June] and I graduated [high school] in 1964 and three years later we became Ontario Orchards. We have been here more than 60 years,” he explained. “It is the same location. We have expanded over the years as the customers mentioned different things; we have expanded to bring in different products. “What keeps me going is I totally enjoy what I am doing. I enjoy the people that I work with. The customers are wonderful. Mostly, more important than anything, is my family — my wife, my daughters, grandchildren, son-in-law — we are still very much a family business I’m not going to retire just yet.” He also enjoys the changing seasons. “Ontario Orchards is a four-season business. There is always something new; more energy, more interest. Not only for the business but for my staff, the people that work here. Things keep changing, changing. We are always looking forward to something new and exciting,” he said. They work with quite a number of local farmers within the area and throughout the state, throughout the country and from around the world.” “We do have things from different countries around the world. But specifically, we are very excited about the local. We have an over 200-acre farm. We sell just about everything we raise on that farm right here at the farm market. For example, we press cider year-round. We make baked goods every day, year-round. We sell our apples 12 months a year.” “Today, there are so many products in Ontario Orchards that we never would have thought of in 1967,” he continued. “I attribute a lot of that to my daughters. I like the young blood and new energy. That is very crucial to a business, it keeps it vibrant.” What’s his favorite part of the job? “I don’t have a favorite part. I enjoy it all. I have a lot of intertest in other things,” he said. “I have staff that knows so much. I can go to the staff and say, ‘I don’t know what this is, you tell me what this is.’ They are so knowledgeable. It is impossible for one person to know everything in this place. In the summer, staff is about 60; in the winter about 20, 25.” He added that he plans on being around for several more years.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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