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Science for the Planet: Turning Waste Into Critical Materials
Greeshma Gadikota and her team explore how materials that might otherwise be landfilled can be transformed into products needed for solar energy and other critical technologies.
Joe Buck reportedly closing in on deal to host sports version of 'Jeopardy!' on ESPN
Joe Buck might have a new broadcasting role soon.
Logan Airport travelers might have been exposed to measles, health officials warn
Travelers at Boston Logan International Airport earlier this month might have been exposed to measles, health officials warned Wednesday. The Boston Public Health Commission and the Massachusetts Department of Public Health said that a person with measles visited Terminal C at Logan Airport shortly after midnight on Tuesday, April 14. The person traveled to Boston on JetBlue Airways flight 470,…
Sports Daily: What will Chiefs do? NFL Draft starts tomorrow
In a season full of tough losses for the Royals, Monday night’s setback might’ve been the worst. Is there hope in KC after a season-worst 7-16 start?
Crooked Letter Sports: There’s a draft in here
We take a look at what the 2026 NFL Draft might look like for Mississippi’s top prospects, and what the New Orleans Saints need to do to continue their rebuild. Plus, baseball heats up as the Big 3 get back on track and the Braves jump out to a truly remarkable start.
5 takeaways from the Virginia redistricting vote
Tuesday’s vote makes the tit-for-tat redistricting war that’s played out over the past several months something close to a draw. Republicans could still come out with a slight advantage if Florida passes a new map in the coming weeks. But what’s clear is that it seems the fight launched by President Donald Trump hasn’t landed Republicans near the advantage they might have imagined it would last year.
Analysis: Fans have turned on Rosenior
It marked radical new low point in a bleak run of five consecutive league defeats without a goal for Chelsea - their worst such sequence in more than a century and one that few supporters have witnessed in their lifetime. Given the club's success over the past 25 years, it is perhaps understandable that patience is thin for a head coach appointed just three months ago from Chelsea's partner club, Strasbourg. There were early signs that the night might not unfold as Rosenior had hoped.
SBA administrator speaks to ABC13 on economic uncertainty ahead of midterm elections: 'It's a blip'
With the war in Iran and growing costs creating uncertainty, the economy is atop voters minds heading into the 2026 midterms. While data reveals Texas is faring better economically than much of the country, growth might be slowing.
Wearable health tech might be Tim Cook’s greatest legacy
An Apple (Watch) a day might keep the doctor away.
Wearable health tech might be Tim Cook’s greatest legacy
An Apple (Watch) a day might keep the doctor away.
From Donald Trump to Jacob Frey — has politics lost its profanity filter?
If there was ever a set of rules for politicians interfacing with the public, steadfast avoidance of profanity might have been at the very top of such a list. Robert’s Rules of Order, which are often invoked in political spaces, certainly prohibit personal insults, including profanity. But these are new times. Just last week, President Donald Trump […]
Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
Plenty of blame after Knicks' playoff collapse; Wembanyama wins Defensive Player of Year; MLB Power Rankings
The Dodgers might be the best team in baseball but they don't play in MLB's best division
High school journalism and business education, even if it's incidental
Study finds high school journalism helps lead in financial literacy education, even though it might not be the direct intent.
The Death of Public Health
During the recent measles outbreak, the largest in more than 30 years, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. refused to clearly recommend the measles vaccine, saying instead that it was a “personal decision,” and that parents should “do their own research.” Similarly, during her recent confirmation hearing for United States Surgeon General, Casey Means was questioned by Senator William Cassidy (R, La). “You’re the nation’s doctor,” said Cassidy. “Would you encourage [a mother] to have her child vaccinated!” “I’m not an individual’s doctor,” Means said. “And every individual needs to talk to their doctor before putting a medication in their body.” In June 2025, Marty Makary, Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), said that COVID vaccines for pregnant women should be a “personal choice”, even though every other country in the world recommended the COVID vaccine during pregnancy due to a higher risk for severe disease. It doesn’t end there. On January 5, 2026, RFK Jr. reduced the number of routinely recommended vaccines from 18 to 10. For vaccines that protected against influenza, COVID, and rotavirus, parents were urged to speak with their doctors—to make an individual choice. (On March 16, 2026, in a ruling by a federal court in Boston, RFK Jr.’s revised schedule was invalidated.) What’s happening? Why are public health officials moving away from making recommendations for the public? The origin of this change might be rooted in the first two years of the COVID pandemic. In 2020, during the first year on the pandemic, we didn’t have anything to stop a virus that was killing hundreds of people a day and could be spread asymptomatically. We didn’t have antivirals until October, monoclonal antibodies until November, and vaccines until December. All we could do was restrict travel, close businesses, shutter schools, and mask, isolate, quarantine, test, and social distance. During the second year of the pandemic, when we had vaccines to prevent COVID, people couldn’t go anywhere without their vaccine cards. They couldn’t go to their favorite bar or restaurant or sporting event or place of worship without proof of vaccination. Some people were fired from their jobs for refusing to get vaccinated. For many, this was seen as massive government overreach and energized what has been called the “medical freedom movement.” Indeed, a headline in the New York Times declared, “How Health Freedom Became a Winning Rally Cry.” As expressed in the comments of RFK Jr., Casey Means, and Marty Makary, the medical freedom movement focuses on the individual not the community—the opposite of public health. In an article titled “Ethics and Social Value Judgments in Public Health,” ethicists from Yale University distinguished public health from medical freedom. “Public health policies,” they wrote, “are population oriented. Because individual health affects the health of others, public health measures regulate individual behavior to achieve population health goals. All raise questions about how individual autonomy and freedom should be balanced against public health interests…which respects individuals’ sovereignty over their bodies and actions as long as their actions do not harm others.” The medical freedom movement fails to recognize that it often limits the freedom of others. For example, a parent who is afraid to send a child to school where many of the students are unvaccinated. Or immune compromised children who depend on those around them to for protection. The question then becomes “Freedom for whom?” Is it your right, in the name of medical freedom, to catch and transmit a potentially fatal infection—and in so doing, take away the freedom of others? In Four Essays on Liberty, Isaiah Berlin sums it up best. “Liberty for the wolves,” he wrote, “is death to the lambs.” Thanks for reading Beyond the Noise! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Subscribe
New blood test aims to spot liver scarring before it paves the way to cancer
Liver scarring can pave the way to cancer down the line. A new blood test in development might help doctors spot it.
Steven Matz, Rays out to slow road-rampaging Reds
The National League Central-leading Cincinnati Reds have found ways to win despite some dreadful offensive numbers, but their hitters might be finding some form on the current road trip.
A workhorse emerges in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District?
Do we have a workhorse emerging from Colorado’s Third Congressional District? I’m not sure, but an interesting bit of legislation U.S. Rep. Jeff Hurd introduced is at least a bit suggestive that he just might be in Washington, D.C. to get work done, even if the cameras are not aimed his way. As my regular […]
Microsoft Teams and Outlook are getting significant changes soon
Teams is about to feel very different with major UI changes for the toolbar and performance tweaks, while Outlook quietly adds smart Copilot features you might rely on daily.
Apple isn't losing its Trump whisperer
Apple CEO Tim Cook might be stepping down, but he'll likely still have a role in manging Apple's most important relationship.
Bills urged to roll the dice in NFL Draft
The Bills might be looking to fix their Keon Coleman mistake.
People Are Ditching KitchenAid Stand Mixers For A Brand 'Everyone's Recommending'
KitchenAid stand mixers might be iconic, but that doesn't mean they're still the best when innovations and modern technologies are being added to appliances.
Six ways your smartwatch is lying to you, according to science
Wearable fitness technologies like smartwatches are worn by millions of people daily. But they're not as accurate as you might think.
One of the Largest Stars in the Universe Just Changed Colors and Astronomers Think It Is About to Explode
Astronomers have been watching the supergiant WOH G64 for decades – and it might have turned into a hypergiant and be heading for self-destruction.
Eagles trade rumor could lead to deal with Vikings
The Philadelphia Eagles are reportedly looking to be active in the trade market during the 2026 NFL Draft, and the Minnesota Vikings might be in their crosshairs. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Eagles general manager Howie Roseman is plotting to…
The State of Politics: Why UW President Candidates May Hesitate
The clumsy firing of Jay Rothman might discourage some top candidates.
Is Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) Starting To Look Attractive After A 50% Share Price Slide
If you are wondering whether Flutter Entertainment is starting to look attractively priced or still has more room to fall before it offers value, this article walks through what the current share price might really be telling you. The stock last closed at US$110.08, with recent returns of 4.5% over 7 days and 5.0% over 30 days, set against a much larger 49.6% decline year to date and a 50.3% decline over the past year. These price moves sit against a backdrop of ongoing attention on Flutter...
Businesses can claim refunds for Trump tariffs ruled unconstitutional starting Monday
It’s the first step in a complicated process that also might eventually lead to refunds for consumers who were billed for some or all of the tariffs on products shipped to them from outside the U.S.
Ohio Valley Health Center Helps Patient Rebuild Health, Life
STEUBENVILLE — Helping people who might have fallen through the cracks is one of the many important goals of the Ohio Valley Health Center. And for that, Ray Scurry is a thankful man. The 55-year-old Steubenville resident had operated Heavenly Rides, what was then the largest cab service in the Steubenville area, for about 15 […]
6 ways your smartwatch is lying to you, according to science
Smartwatches aren’t always as accurate as you might think. In some cases, you’d be better off listening to your body.
He's the one! Meet Liverpool's next midfield sensation
Liverpool might be on the verge of uncovering their next midfield star - and it will be sensational. With Richard Hughes expected to dip into the market this summer, it’s becoming increasingly clear...
Businesses can claim refunds for Trump tariffs ruled unconstitutional starting Monday
A refund system for businesses that paid tariffs which the U.S. Supreme Court ruled President Donald Trump imposed without the constitutional authority to do so is scheduled to launch Monday. Importers and their brokers will be able to begin claiming refunds through an online portal beginning at 8 a.m., according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the agency administering the system. It's the first step in a complicated process that also might eventually lead to refunds for consumers who were billed for some or all of the tariffs on products shipped to them from outside the United States.
Coachella wraps up today with Karol G.
This is also your last chance to catch any performances you might have missed. Last week I missed out on Clipse, Young Thug, The Rapture, and Tomora, so they’re my priority. But I also am looking forward to Röyksopp, who didn’t make the stream last weekend. Head over to the official Coachella YouTube channel. [Image: https://platform.theverge.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/Coachella-2026-Livestream-Set-Times-Weekend-2-V3-Sunday-April-19.jpg?quality=90&strip=all]
Energy Secretary: Gas prices below $3 per gallon ‘might not happen until next year’
'The chances of you living 50 years are very small': Theoretical physicist explains why humanity likely won't survive to see all the forces unified
Live Science spoke with Nobel prize-winning physicist David Gross, who recently received the $3 million Special Breakthrough Prize in Fundamental Physics, about the quest to unite all the forces and why humanity might not live to see a unified theory.
Editorial: Let’s get some ‘Pothole Politics’ here from Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s New York
Sewer socialism might not be as bad as it sounds.
Think AI "knows" what it’s doing? Scientists say think again
Calling AI things like “smart” or saying it “knows” something might sound harmless, but it can quietly mislead people about what AI actually does. A new study shows that news writers are more careful than expected, rarely using strongly human-like language. When they do, it often falls on a spectrum—sometimes describing simple requirements, other times hinting at human traits.
Got $5,000? This Boring Waste Business Might Be a Quiet Multimillionaire Maker by 2036.
Republic Services is in the business of trash, but its long-term potential is anything but junk.
Feds look for a connection in cases of missing or dead scientists
President Donald Trump said the cases might be random coincidence. The news comes amid swirling reports and speculation about a number of cases.
Athletics' Jacob Wilson problem might not go away anytime soon
This might become a season-long issue for the A's.
How an unusual coalition is rebuilding — and honoring
Seattle's Memorial Stadium once hosted sports, concerts, civic events and even water skiing. Why the Kraken are helping to build a new stadium might surprise you.
Scientists say this type of olive oil could boost brain power
Extra virgin olive oil might help protect your brain by working through your gut. A two-year study found that people who consumed it had better cognitive performance and more diverse gut bacteria than those using refined olive oil. Researchers even identified specific microbes linked to these benefits. The findings suggest that choosing high-quality olive oil could be a simple way to support brain health as you age.
Which 2026 NFL Draft prospects could slide to later picks?
Expectations rarely align with reality in the NFL draft, and these five prospects could have a longer wait than many might have them pegged for.
The extreme positions Trump proposes
President Donald Trump this month threatened to strike Iranian infrastructure in ways that might well be war crimes. It’s his latest extreme move that polls show his GOP base has embraced.
It doesn’t matter how much you sit — walking more could lower your risk of death and disease
Sitting all day might not be as damaging as once feared—if you’re willing to move more. A massive study tracking over 72,000 people found that simply increasing daily steps can significantly reduce the risk of death and heart disease, even for those who spend long hours sedentary. Hitting around 9,000–10,000 steps a day delivered the biggest benefits, cutting mortality risk by nearly 40% and cardiovascular disease by over 20%.
Fiesta food safety: How Metro Health keeps vendor favorites safe
While Fiesta food might not be the healthiest, San Antonio Metropolitan Health District inspectors make sure it’s made safely.
K-Pop’s Biggest Labels Join Forces to Plan Coachella-Style Global Festival
A ‘K-pop Coachella’ might be coming. The industry’s biggest players are in talks to launch a massive global event.
Gavin Newsom chooses the wrong side of gender politics again
Sex changes for illegal immigrants might sound like a Republican ad, but it’s California policy.
Apple to Unveil iOS 27 in June With These New Features Beyond Siri
Apple is expected to unveil iOS 27 during its WWDC 2026 keynote on June 8, and the update should be released in September. Below, we outline some of the new features that are rumored to be coming with iOS 27, beyond the long-awaited more personalized version of Siri. iOS 27 will reportedly support 5G satellite internet connectivity, although this functionality might be limited to the upcoming iPhone 18 Pro models with Apple's next-generation C2 modem.
Scientists May Have Finally Solved the Mystery of Christopher Columbus’ Origins
Christopher Columbus purposely kept his ancestry a mystery during his life. But unfortunately for him, some researchers might have solved it.
The Politics of Loving Kindness: Insights from a Birth Equity Initiative | Nonprofit Quarterly | Civic News. Empowering Nonprofits. Advancing Justice.
What might happen across our country if those working to make life better for our neighbors embraced the politics of loving kindness? What if we were explicit about caring for all people, more than corporations or profit?
Porsche Just Smashed The Mustang GTD's Nürburgring Lap Time - How Long Will That Last?
A Manthey-tuned 992.1 GT3 RS has just taken nearly 7 seconds out of the Mustang GTD's lap time, but Ford might already be working on a response.
A new Android 17 beta reveals plans for “Pixel Glow” light animations.
Google just released the fourth beta for Android 17 today, and now, 9to5Google and Android Authority point out that it contains mentions of a new lighting feature that we might see on the next round of Pixel phones. The Pixel Glow details say it “uses subtle light and color on the back of your device to inform you of important activity when it’s face down,” when interacting with Gemini, or when favorite contacts are calling. [Link: Pixel Glow 'visual feedback' tool might just hint at big Pixel 11 hardware changes | https://www.androidauthority.com/pixel-glow-3658443/ | Android Authority]
Pixel Glow 'visual feedback' tool might just hint at big Pixel 11 hardware changes
Is Google bringing rear RGB lights to the Pixel 11 series? References to a "Pixel Glow" tool in Android 17 Beta 4 raise the possibility.
‘This moment of bipartisan agreement might not last’
Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
Only the champions might be happy with Minnesota’s student-athlete transfer system
Inside an imperfect system: Because the high school league is “not an investigative body,” athletic directors own the burden of enforcing Minnesota’s trust-based transfer process. Coaches are often caught in the middle, too.
The medical AI revolution requires rethinking health care's architecture
"Instead of organizing health data around institutions, we might organize it around individuals," write Meta's Freddy Abnousi and Stanford's Celina Yong.
Contingency plans in place for possible food shortages if Iran war continues, minister confirms
Peter Kyle did not dispute Times’ report that under a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ supermarkets might start running out of some items
AirPods Max 2 Review: A Bigger Upgrade Than You Think
You might not be able to tell the difference between the AirPods Max 2 and the originals at a glance, but the internal upgrades are a big deal.
Old And Unsupported Kindles Might Become The Best Tech Deal Of 2026
Older Kindles may become the best tech deal of 2026 because they'll get cheaper, and you'll still be able read your favorite books in multiple digital formats.
Burning Questions about Adobe Premiere Beta's new dedicated Color Mode by Scott Simmons
Just in time for NAB 2026, Adobe has released into the Premiere Beta what might be one of its biggest feature additions in the history of the application, in a new dedicated Color Mode. Color Mode is a dedicated workspace for color correction and color grading. It’s been designed with everything one needs for color [...]Read More... from Burning Questions about Adobe Premiere Beta’s new dedicated Color Mode
Scientists think alien life might be hiding in patterns
A new study proposes detecting life in space by spotting patterns across many planets instead of focusing on one at a time. If life spreads and changes planetary environments, it could leave behind statistical clues linking planets together. These patterns may reveal life even when traditional biosignatures are unclear or misleading. The method could help scientists prioritize which planets are most likely to host life.
A new way to detect life beyond Earth without knowing what life looks like
Researchers from the Earth-Life Science Institute (ELSI) and National Institute for Basic Biology have developed a new method to detect extraterrestrial life without relying on traditional biosignatures. By modelling how life might spread between planets, they demonstrate that life could be detected through statistical patterns across planetary populations rather than on individual planets. This "agnostic biosignature" approach could assist in guiding future searches for life beyond Earth.
Miami Dolphins' facility becomes land of opportunity for underdogs
By starting from scratch, the Miami Dolphins represent an opportunity for players who might not get much of a look elsewhere.
Beyond the Algorithm: The business of fun
Depending on the setting, Chris Davenport might describe his career in a number of ways, but if he had to distill it into a single phrase, he would probably say: professional risk manager. Over decades in the mountains...
Louisiana political donors would have addresses redacted from public reports under bill
The Louisiana Legislature might block the public from seeing the addresses of political donors who give money to election campaigns starting Aug. 1.
Despite Israeli firepower, Netanyahu struggles for political gains in Iran war
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Weird Stat Shows Why Yankees' Offense Might be Struggling
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OTB Staff: 3 Bold Predictions for 2026-2027 Rutgers Sports
As the 2025-2026 athletic year nears its end, with just the spring sports left to play, it is time to look ahead to the 2026-2027 athletic year. We here at On The Banks will each make three bold predictions about what the next year of Rutgers sports might have in store for us. Let us […]
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Who Had “New OS For The Z80” On Their 2026 Bingo Card?
Some might say the venerable Z80 doesn’t need another operating system, but [Scott Baker] obviously disagrees. He has come up with a brand new, from scratch OS called NostOS for the Z80-based…
Nancy Guthrie Update: Expert Names ‘Most Likely’ Source of Suspect’s DNA
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Nancy Guthrie Update: Expert Names ‘Most Likely’ Source of Suspect’s DNA
DNA is ‘hardy,’ says CeCe Moore, and one source might be investigators’ best hope at learning what happened to Nancy Guthrie.
From LLMs to hallucinations, here's a simple guide to common AI terms
The rise of AI has brought an avalanche of new terms and slang. Here is a glossary with definitions of some of the most important words and phrases you might encounter.
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Life on Mars? Tiny cells just survived shock waves and toxic soil
Mars may be hostile, but it might not be entirely unlivable. In lab experiments, yeast cells survived simulated Martian shock waves and toxic perchlorate salts—two major environmental threats on the Red Planet. Their secret weapon was forming protective molecular clusters that shield critical cellular functions under stress. Without these defenses, survival plummeted, pointing to a potential universal strategy life could use beyond Earth.
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
Seniors: John Lemp, 70
Has been working for more than 50 years in the business — M. Lemp Jewelers in Syracuse — that his great-grandfather started in 1890 By Mary Beth Roach Don Lemp owns and represents the fourth-generation of the family business, M. Lemp Jewelers, but he still calls himself “a counter guy.” “I love interacting with couples. It’s a wonderful business. You’re celebrating marriages, engagements, births, anniversaries — all these different significant moments that people invite you into their lives for whatever brief period of time it might be to help them celebrate whatever their important occasion is,” he said. This is one of several reasons why Lemp, at 70, has been working for more than 50 years in the business that his great-grandfather started in 1890. Always located in the downtown Syracuse area, the store has been situated in the building that the family owns on East Fayette and Warren streets since 1971. He jokes that he’s been in the business so long he is now selling engagement rings to the second generation in some families. He also loves the opportunity to learn about the ever-changing industry and gemstones. “You have to know not only diamonds, but all the colored stones, from A to Z, from andalusite to zircons,” he said. Lemp said he had originally thought he wanted to become an attorney, but while working part-time in the store while attending college at Syracuse University, he decided to follow in the family business. His father, Walter D. Lemp Sr., and his mother tried to discourage their son from pursuing retail, reminding him of the hectic hours and lifestyle intrinsic in this business. But the younger Lemp [whose full name is Walter D. Lemp Jr.] prevailed. So, over the years, father and son got to work together in the family business for 35 years. And while many other jewelers retreated from downtown to suburban malls in the 1970s, the Lemps decided to stay downtown. And it’s a decision that Lemp Jr. feels it has worked out well. As he explained, downtown Syracuse is seeing a rebirth. One website, Point2Home.com, has noted that more than 6,000 people live there and the median income is about $62,000. In addition, according to the website that Lemp built years ago, the store can cater to customers throughout the country. His customers, whether from across the country or across Onondaga County, are just one reason that Lemp stays engaged in the business. His employees, the opportunity to continue to learn in an industry, and the challenge to continue to improve business are all other reasons, he noted. He’s also been able to travel to India to buy diamonds and he enjoys buying and selling estates. “I’d rather gallop in the corral than ride into the sunset,” Lemp said.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Your nose could detect Alzheimer’s years before symptoms begin
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I tested the AirPods Max 2, Sony WH-1000XM6, and Bose QuietComfort Ultra — here's the only pair I’d keep
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Pep Guardiola's favorite player might return soon.
Science of seismic proportions
Arizona’s deserts might not be situated on a tectonic plate boundary where geographical activity can cause earthquakes, but that doesn’t make the state immune from the disturbance of tremors.It has been 139 years since Arizona’s strongest recorded earthquake on the Pitaycachi fault struck in 1887. The 7.5 magnitude event, known as the Sonoran Earthquake, took place near the southeastern Arizona-Mexico border.
Artemis II reentry will create a sonic boom. Here’s how to report it
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Health‑coverage decisions in retirement can shape when and how federal retirees tap their money
You've got to be careful about the tax planning and also what you might expect in the future down the road," said Tammy Flanagan.
Harry Cohen banks $144K in Q1 for re-election, but he might wind up unopposed
Cohen's opponent doesn't live in the district.
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Level-5 Release Dates Still Up In The Air For Some Potential 2026 Titles
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Penn researchers use AI to surface unreported GLP-1 side effects in Reddit posts
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