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He's finally back! Liverpool midfielder returns at last
Injuries have undoubtedly been a significant factor in Liverpool’s campaign this season.While the overall number of injuries may not have been overwhelming, the impact has been severe due to several...
Health visitors call for limits on 'impossible' 1,000-family caseloads
BBC analysis shows the number of health visitors in England has almost halved in the last 10 years.
Nebraska baseball dominates at the plate to sweep No. 12 USC
Nebraska baseball (31-9, 15-3) secured the series sweep against No. 12 USC (30-11, 13-8) with a 16-6 win on Sunday. Sliding plays at the plate, a grand slam and a plethora of hits kept the record-breaking number of fans at Haymarket Park entertained.
Laredo officials emphasize prevention after two suicides in March
Following two suicides in March, Laredo officials are focusing on prevention efforts, outreach and community support as the total number of deaths reaches five this year.
Trump's approval rating drops over economy, Iran war in new poll
New polling from NBC News Decision Desk measured new lows for the president's second term. See the numbers.
Defender knocks back Barcelona contract offer
Barcelona are gearing up for a huge summer, but before the transfer window opens, they have a number of contract situations to resolve. The big one centres on Robert Lewandowski, but another whose cur...
In wake of political violence, states use campaign cash for personal security
The number of states approving this use of campaign funds has more than doubled since the assassinations of Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman and activist Charlie Kirk.
Curing U.S. Health Care, Part I
In 2008, much to their own surprise, leading Democrats unified around a program of major health care reform. Policy wonks had spent years developing the concepts behind what eventually became Obamacare; big Democratic victories in the 2006 midterms and the prospect of controlling both Congress and the presidency made it possible to imagine turning those ideas into reality. During the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama advocated similar plans, based on those ideas, for expanding insurance coverage. And it happened! The Affordable Care Act was enacted in 2010. When it was fully implemented in 2014, millions of Americans got health insurance: Impressive as the raw numbers are, they don’t tell the whole story. Before the ACA, even upper-middle-class Americans often found it impossible to get health insurance if they had pre-existing medical conditions. Many Americans were trapped in jobs they wanted to leave but couldn’t for fear of losing their employment-based coverage. Meanwhile, dire predictions from the usual suspects about runaway costs proved wrong. In fact, overall U.S. medical spending has grown much more slowly since the ACA was enacted than before. But the U.S., alone among advanced nations, still falls far short of providing universal health care. As you can see from the chart above, 8 percent of the population was still uninsured in 2024, a number that is set to rise over the next two years as a result of Republican policies. True, many of the uninsured in 2024 were undocumented immigrants, who we don’t try to cover. But there are still a lot of uninsured. Moreover, a significant number of Americans who have health insurance are in fact underinsured. As a result, they are at risk of incurring devastating healthcare costs and are sometimes forced to forgo needed care. This number is set to rise sharply in the next two years as a result of Republican policies adopted under Donald Trump. And not only is the U.S. unique among advanced countries in its under-provision of health care coverage, it also incurs by far the world’s highest healthcare costs per capita. So now may well be a good time to get behind a new push for major health reform — an effort, if you like, to finish the job begun under Obama. Today’s primer is devoted to the economics of health reform. During his failed effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act, Donald Trump famously complained, “Nobody knew healthcare could be so complicated.” Actually, we did know — and it’s not that complicated. Health economists understand the principles very well. And because health policy varies greatly among advanced nations, we know a lot about what works and what doesn’t. This will be the first in a series about health reform. Beyond the paywall I’ll address the following: 1. Why markets can’t be trusted to deliver healthcare 2. Routes to universal healthcare 3. What works? In a follow-up post I’ll discuss the pros and cons of different approaches, and possible paths forward for the United States.
For U.S. medical researchers, shrinking labs and bare budgets are the new reality
The Trump administration has slashed the number of grants from the National Institutes of Health, with far fewer focused on women, cancer and mental health.
For U.S. medical researchers, shrinking labs and bare budgets are the new reality
The Trump administration has slashed the number of grants from the National Institutes of Health, with far fewer focused on women, cancer and mental health.
Opinion/Guest column: Protecting mental health care for youth a must
A state-funded program deserves credit for reducing the number of youth waiting in the emergency department for mental health care services.
Ranking NFL Draft options for Giants at No. 10 following Dexter Lawrence trade
New York could go a number of different ways with two picks in the top 10 of the 2026 NFL Draft.
Feds look for a connection in cases of missing or dead scientists
President Donald Trump said the cases might be random coincidence. The news comes amid swirling reports and speculation about a number of cases.
Los Angeles Dodgers' Historic Start By The Numbers
The Los Angeles Dodgers are off to a historic start. Here's their 15-4 start to the 2026 MLB season by the numbers.
Losing Health Insurance? Here Are Ways to Cut Medical Bills
With increasing numbers of Americans forgoing health insurance because of cost, other services provide ways to lower bills.
NSF awards record number of coveted PhD fellowships in surprise move
Quantum science and AI research are big winners just a year after the U.S. funding giant slashed its Graduate Research Fellowship Program awards in half
Renowned physicist alarmed by 'unheard of' number of scientists dying or vanishing now on White House's radar
Multiple scientists linked to UFO research, nuclear labs and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory have mysteriously vanished or died in recent years.
INTEGRIS Health confirms layoffs, clinic closures
One of the largest healthcare providers in Oklahoma says it is preparing for cuts to its workforce and a number of clinics.On Friday, INTEGRIS Health officials
Jack Schlossberg May in Fact Happen, According to Polls
A new poll showed the Kennedy scion leading the field in the NY-12 race, but a significant number of voters still appeared undecided.
What is the femosphere?
A growing number of influencers are encouraging women to ditch the egalitarian narrative of liberal feminism and take a more cynical approach to the opposite sex
A Look Back at Data & Business Process Services Stocks’ Q4 Earnings: Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) Vs The Rest Of The Pack
Wrapping up Q4 earnings, we look at the numbers and key takeaways for the data & business process services stocks, including Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) and its pe...
Santa Fe's newest theater, EVO Entertainment, offers more reasons to go back to the movies
As streaming services have flooded our homes with entertainment options, the thought of watching movies on the big screen has become increasingly rare. The numbers agree: In 2025, the domestic
Barcelona have plan in place for Hansi Flick contract talks
Barcelona have a number of contract situations to resolve in the lead-up to the summer transfer window, and of them is Hansi Flick’s. The German manager’s current deal expires in 2027, but there i...
UFC White House fight week schedule, event start time revealed
The UFC has a number of events planned ahead of the White House card
Trump Voters Have Had Enough
A shocking number of the president’s supporters have turned against him.
Intel launches new Core Series 3 chips for mainstream laptops
The new chips promise all-day battery life and will be adopted by a number of brands throughout 2026.
UNC Hussman offers new sports play-by-play class | UNC Hussman School of Journalism and Media
This story, written by UNC Hussman alumna Caroline Daly ’24, was originally published on unc.edu. The UNC Hussman School of Journalism and Media has a new, hands-on class available for students interested in sports careers. Students in “MEJO 390: Sports Commentary and Play-By-Play” can call live radio broadcasts for Carolina sporting events, streamed live on the Go Heels website. This spring, 11 students are calling mostly softball games to gain experience and learn the preparation needed for a successful broadcast. The class is capped at a small number to provide consistent, individual feedback. Matt Krause, the radio voice of Carolina women’s basketball, teaches the class to help students sharpen their skills, using his experience with the Tar Heels and calling games for ACC Network and ACC Network Extra. “There is no substitute for live reps, and that is the only way you get better. The classroom component teaches you how to get better, but going about that requires sitting in that chair, making mistakes and being able to know your broadcast is going somewhere,” Krause said. “These students are doing real live games, and they will have tape where if they want to pursue this. They will have ready-made demos to send for jobs. Being able to utilize all the resources of UNC, GoHeels Productions and the Carolina Athletics brand and create these opportunities for students is really impactful.” In the class, students learn fundamentals like how to announce starting lineups for different sports and how to conduct research before games. Krause has led the class in mock preparation exercises, looking at game charts with information about the different teams and players that they can refer to at pivotal moments during the game. Krause and the students then critique each other, listening to clips from the past week to find ways to improve. It’s a rare class without a slew of quizzes or assignments. Their main tasks are calling games and making a portfolio or demo reel of their best calls at the end of the semester, all with the goal of being ready to step into similar roles after graduation. Laible live streams her coverage on the GoHeels website. Calling a live game while broadcasting her coverage allows her to get hands on experience. (Jon Gardiner/UNC-Chapel Hill) Junior Anna Laible ’27 wished for a class just like this. Her first year at Carolina, she interned with the Coastal Plain League, where she was introduced to play-by-play for baseball. “I enjoy the challenge and uncertainty of each game being different because each sport looks a little different,” said Laible. “Each game is different — not just with teams but what could happen with certain records being broken or random trends. That’s what I enjoy most.” She wanted more opportunities for reps during college to prepare for a career after Carolina, so she pitched an idea for the class to Livis Freeman ’99, distinguished associate professor of sports communication. Laible and Freeman reached out to GoHeels Productions for a partnership and then connected with Krause. “This is how at UNC Hussman we separate ourselves: Our students go into the field ready,” said Freeman. “The biggest compliment we get it is when our students start their careers, they don’t need any hand-holding.” Laible calls a Carolina softball game at Kessing Stadium – after pitching the idea to Hussman faculty. Her interest in sports commentary allowed her to apply her interest as she attends Carolina. (Jon Gardiner/UNC-Chapel Hill) Laible is now a student in the class, which has helped her strengthen her skills and deepen her passion for the field. The goal is to expand to other sports like soccer, lacrosse and field hockey. “The hands-on experience I’ve gotten here is invaluable. I’ve loved the classes and professors because they’ve taught me a lot, but it’s also the things outside of class, too, that have helped me grow,” said Laible. “Since being at UNC, I’ve grown a lot in the versatility, from doing writing to production and commentating. UNC Hussman and Carolina have given me the ability to be strong and well rounded.”
Railmark announces return to passenger rail business
HENDERSON, Ky. — Railmark Holdings, which operates short lines and provides industrial switching along with a number of other rail services, is returning to the passenger rail business through subsidiary Train Travel Inc., the company announced on Wednesday, April 15. Train Travel’s 38-year history includes operation of the Star Clipper Dinner Train and Reno Fun Train, as well as a rail-centric
Southlake Carroll (TX) football reveals 2026 schedule
High school football schedules for the 2026 season are coming out one-by-one out of every state around the country and one that is a breeding ground for college prospects is Texas, with a number of squads finalizing their fall slates. Next up to announce their schedule from the Lone Star State is one of the […]
Fraud allegations may spark additional probe
Staff found 15 instances when this occurred but noted that time limits for making a decision made it “impossible to determine the exact number of fraudulent QC’s claimed by Collector 1.”
Jackie Robinson Day: Dodgers' Legend's MLB Career By The Numbers
It's Jackie Robinson Day in Major League Baseball! Here's the Brooklyn Dodgers' legend's MLB career by the numbers.
Want a say in local sports? County seeks advisory committee members
Montgomery County is in search of applicants to fill a number of vacancies on the Montgomery County Sports Advisory Committee.
Can Europe create artificial intelligence that we actually understand?
Artificial intelligence is currently controlled by a number of tech giants in the United States and China. One professor believes Europe can choose to take a smarter and more democratic path.
“There’s a general acceptance” – Sky Sports reporter shares update on Chelsea’s summer plans
Chelsea are expected to be busy in the summer transfer window with a number of positions needing to be filled according to Sky Sports reporter Kaveh Solhekol.DOWNLOAD THE OFFICIAL CHELSEA NEWS APP FOR...
Cattle futures up ahead of direct business
At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, live and feeder cattle were higher, ahead of the week’s direct business and taking into consideration the tight supply of ready numbers. June live cattle closed $2.90 higher at $251.42 and August live cattle closed $2.07 higher at $246.52. May feeder cattle closed $2.02 higher at $374.85 and August feeder […]
‘A great fight town.’ UFC returns to Philly as latest major sports event planned for 2026
UFC 330 will be the MMA promotion’s first event in the city since 2019, and the first “numbered” event here since 2011.
Beyond the Algorithm: The business of fun
Depending on the setting, Chris Davenport might describe his career in a number of ways, but if he had to distill it into a single phrase, he would probably say: professional risk manager. Over decades in the mountains...
Why rural hospitals in Pennsylvania and across the country are closing in increasing numbers – 5 myths about rural health care
Rural hospitals have high fixed costs, low patient volume and a large portion of patients insured through Medicaid, which typically pays less than private insurers.
Key players miss training before Sporting clash
Five of Arsenal's key players were missing from the open part of training before the Gunners quarter-final second-leg match against Sporting in the Champions League. Arsenal have a 1-0 advantage from the first leg but have a number of injury issues in the squad. Declan Rice, who played 90 minutes of Arsenal's 2-1 defeat to Bournemouth at the weekend, was not seen in the first 15 minutes of the training session that was open to the media.
Today’s Papers: Two Italy duels, Inter strength, Juventus stars
La Gazzetta dello SportDuels of Italy Malago-Abete for the FIGCAzzurri CT: Allegri battles ConteSerie A in agreement (19 of 20) in favor of the former CONI President. The number one of the amateur le...
Quenda returns in time to face Arsenal
Sporting winger Geovany Quenda is back and ready to face Premier League opposition again, starting with Arsenal. The 18-year-old missed Sporting's 1-0 first-leg defeat as he completed the final stage of his recovery from a foot injury. Sporting's number seven returned from the bench in Saturday's win over Estrela Amadora and will again be available for Wednesday's tie against Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium.
UCLA makes WNBA draft history with record number of selections
Entering Monday night, UCLA had only produced six first-round draft picks since 1997. The program nearly matched that at the 2026 WNBA Draft alone.
Oregon High School Football: West Linn releases schedule
High school football schedules for the 2026 season are coming out one-by-one out of every state around the country and one that is a breeding ground for college prospects is Oregon, with a number of squads finalizing their fall slates. The top high school football team out of the state of Oregon is the West […]
Insurers Stand to Gain Big Business From Data Centers
That's how much S&P Global Ratings estimates data centers could pay in insurance premiums this year. That number compares to $5 billion a year for the entire aviation sector, the ratings firm said in a report Monday. The firm estimates the total insurable amount of data-center assets at $2 trillion
College baseball rankings for Week 9: Updated USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, D1Baseball top 25
UCLA remains the top team in the updated USA TODAY Coaches college baseball rankings, but a number of teams saw sizeable drops and rises this week:
Palmetto Sports & Entertainment to air record number of Myrtle Beach Pelicans games this season
There’s even more reason to be excited about the Myrtle Beach Pelicans’ new season.
Fantasy sports apps see increased usage by college students
In the past decade, the line between fantasy sports and sports betting has been blurred, propelling online sportsbooks and sportsbetting culture into the mainstream. Now, an increasing number of college students are latching on. Since the 1992 passing of the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act, shortened to PASPA, athletic leagues and lawmakers have fought...
Here are 5 federal fundraising reports that already turned our heads days from the Q1 deadline
A number of non-incumbents have already posted numbers to let the world know they are serious.
Masters 2026: Only one question remains for Rory McIlroy — how high will he climb among golf's all-time greats?
McIlroy may never have the numbers to catch Jack Nicklaus or Tiger Woods, but he certainly has a pathway to No. 3 all-time.
Calls grow for Eric Swalwell to exit politics over sexual assault allegations
An expanding number of Democrats, including fellow Californians, are asking their House colleague to quit his campaign for governor and resign from Congress.
As WhatsApp faces lawsuit, Elon Musk launches 'no tracking' messaging app XChat
App will offer encrypted chats, voice and video calls, large group messaging and disappearing messages, initially for iPhone and iPad users only, with no ads or phone number required to sign up
Close of polls nears in Hungary's most crucial election in decades
As record numbers of Hungarians head to the polls, the EU is preparing for two scenarios: continued obstruction under Orbán or a victory for Magyar that could reset relations, though Brussels remains cautious about both.
Deadlock on Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear stockpile led to impasse, officials say
Entering this weekend’s high-stakes talks in Pakistan, US officials identified a number of key areas where they would need to see progress in order to declare success.
Reconnecting with friends is more important than politics
The original text on the group thread read "Good morning fellas." The originator aspired to gather a number of us who were, and remain, good friends from high school for a ski trip. We'd be based out of his cabin on an alpine lake in Colorado.
Sooo ... About Last Night
Last night (Sat., April 11, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventured forth to Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida for UFC 327. Was this the deepest numbered event since UFC 300? Maybe Jon Anik was onto something! There were great fights from top to bottom, like Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque on the early “Prelims” card. […]
Staal Nets Number 20 – Hurricanes 4, Mammoth 1
Jordan Staal notched his 20th goal of the season and the Carolina Hurricanes defeated the Utah Mammoth, 4-1 on Saturday evening in Salt Lake City. It was Staal’s first 20 goal season in nine years. The Canes have now won three games in a row and they look like they are certainly peaking at the […]
To the editor: Target Chicago to draw new business
With the sheer number of economic development agencies and organizations operating in our region, why aren’t we aggressively targeting businesses in the ...
Seniors: Dennis Ouellette, 80
Ontario Orchards owner not slowing down as he grows his farm market By Stefan Yablonski The seeds for Dennis Ouellette’s career path were sown when he was 6 years old — and he isn’t slowing down. “Since age 6, I grew up an agriculturalist. That is 72 years. Started out with a 37-acre farm when I bought it from my parents and built it up to almost 300 acres. Brought it back down to around 200 acres now,” he said. The location of his business was just a barn, a horse barn, he said. “In 1967, it officially became Ontario Orchards Farm Market. My wife [June] and I graduated [high school] in 1964 and three years later we became Ontario Orchards. We have been here more than 60 years,” he explained. “It is the same location. We have expanded over the years as the customers mentioned different things; we have expanded to bring in different products. “What keeps me going is I totally enjoy what I am doing. I enjoy the people that I work with. The customers are wonderful. Mostly, more important than anything, is my family — my wife, my daughters, grandchildren, son-in-law — we are still very much a family business I’m not going to retire just yet.” He also enjoys the changing seasons. “Ontario Orchards is a four-season business. There is always something new; more energy, more interest. Not only for the business but for my staff, the people that work here. Things keep changing, changing. We are always looking forward to something new and exciting,” he said. They work with quite a number of local farmers within the area and throughout the state, throughout the country and from around the world.” “We do have things from different countries around the world. But specifically, we are very excited about the local. We have an over 200-acre farm. We sell just about everything we raise on that farm right here at the farm market. For example, we press cider year-round. We make baked goods every day, year-round. We sell our apples 12 months a year.” “Today, there are so many products in Ontario Orchards that we never would have thought of in 1967,” he continued. “I attribute a lot of that to my daughters. I like the young blood and new energy. That is very crucial to a business, it keeps it vibrant.” What’s his favorite part of the job? “I don’t have a favorite part. I enjoy it all. I have a lot of intertest in other things,” he said. “I have staff that knows so much. I can go to the staff and say, ‘I don’t know what this is, you tell me what this is.’ They are so knowledgeable. It is impossible for one person to know everything in this place. In the summer, staff is about 60; in the winter about 20, 25.” He added that he plans on being around for several more years.
Seniors: Carol Watson, 72
Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.
Hornets aim to bounce back in season finale vs. Knicks
After clinching the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference, the New York Knicks are expected to sit a number of key players in their regular-season finale against the visiting Charlotte Hornets on Sunday.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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Source: NBER With all the other terrible news right now, you may not have noticed that Donald Trump is in the process of killing American science. OK, that’s an exaggeration — but not that much of an exaggeration. The Trump administration’s latest budget proposal calls for a gigantic increase in military spending combined with severe cuts to social programs. But as the chart above shows, it also calls for debilitating reductions in research funding. Furthermore, Trump appointees have already been strangling science by sharply reducing the rate at which research grants are approved. Here, for example, is the number of new grants approved by the National Science Foundation: Source: Nature Large numbers of existing grants have also been frozen or terminated, especially in the study of infectious diseases. Add to this a sharp drop in visas issued to foreign students, who often play a direct role in research and who help support academic departments that do research: Put all of this together, and much U.S. scientific research is set to come to a screeching halt — not a few years from now, but over the course of the next year or two. This new assault on U.S. science is taking place at a time when the role of American science in the world has already been greatly eroded. The chart below, based on research recently reported by the National Bureau of Economic Research, measures national strength in science by the share of publications in highly ranked journals. In the 1990s the United States had more such publications than the rest of the world combined. Since then we’ve dropped into third place — well behind China and slightly below the European Union. And this was before the Trump administration’s attack on science had time to take its full effect. Source Some erosion in U.S. scientific preeminence was inevitable given China’s growing sophistication and wealth. But we’ve also fallen behind Europe, even though everyone says that Europe is lagging economically and technologically. Claims about Europe’s underperformance are, in fact, dubious if one looks hard at the data. But it’s still striking to see America lagging. What’s going on? There are presumably multiple factors behind America’s scientific lag. But even before Trump II the growing hostility of the U.S. right to science surely had some negative effect. And since the rise of MAGA G.O.P. attitudes toward science in general have become overwhelmingly hostile. This is true even for the Republican rank and file: And while I haven’t been able to find good survey data, it’s obvious that the anti-science turn has been even more pronounced — and began earlier — among the Republican political elite. Chris Mooney published The Republican War on Science in 2005, and even then was describing a longstanding trend. Why have Republicans turned so anti-science? Part of the answer is that they believe that scientists don’t support them. And they’re right! A study of who scientists give money to shows that only a small percentage gave money to Republicans even 20 years ago, and that almost none of them donate to Republicans now: Social scientists have always been strongly pro-Democratic, while there used to be a significant number of physical, “hard” scientists supporting the GOP. But these days physicists are almost as uniformly Democratic, or at least non-Republican, as sociologists. Why are there almost no Republican scientists? It’s not a mystery. GOP political orthodoxy includes positions that are at odds with the scientific consensus on multiple issues, ranging from the validity of the theory of evolution, to the reality of climate change, to the efficacy and safety of vaccines. In each case the scientific consensus is solidly grounded in evidence. But even before the rise of MAGA the U.S. right was increasingly hostile to evidence-based policymaking — especially, of course, where the evidence is unfavorable to fossil fuel interests or quack medicine, both financial mainstays of right-wing politics. So scientists don’t support Republicans, and the feeling is mutual. Today’s Republican Party doesn’t like science or scientists. It doesn’t like having its preconceived views challenged by appeals to evidence. It knows that very few scientists are on its side electorally. In general, it sees scientific research as a threat to its grasp on political power. Add in MAGA’s combination of rabid anti-intellectualism and allergy to any hint of criticism, and one has the makings of a drastic anti-science turn in policy. “Ignorance is strength” might was well be an official MAGA motto. And as I said, we aren’t talking about something that will happen over the course of multiple years: The U.S. scientific enterprise is threatened with severe damage, even collapse, over just the next year. There are many reasons to find this prospect horrifying: Think of all the beneficial advances, affecting almost every part of life, that won’t happen because U.S. science — still crucial to the world — has been eviscerated. But think, also, of America’s international standing. Can a nation that has forfeited its role as a leader, or even a contender, in global science, still be a Great Power? No. MUSICAL CODA
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