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Union workers take legal action against Build A Rocket Boy
One union member said the studio's 'culture of secrecy and micromanaging' is one of the worst they've ever encountered.
Healthy diets spark lung cancer risk in non-smokers as pesticides loom
Younger non-smokers who ate diets rich in fruits, vegetables and whole grains showed a surprising link to lung cancer, early research suggests.
Dana Perino’s new novel blends romance, politics and humor
Fox News co-anchor Dana Perino discusses her new novel, ‘Purple State,’ with ‘The Five’ co-hosts.
Romania plunges back into political turmoil as Social Democrats move to topple PM
Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan’s coalition partners accuse him of destroying “our social base” with austerity program.
Romania Coalition Nears Collapse as Top Party Spurns Premier
Romania’s government has been thrown into turmoil after the top ruling party withdrew its support for Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, whose own bloc is now rallying to salvage his control of the four-way coalition.
Lily Allen’s ‘West End Girl’ tour is a brutal, brilliant look at romantic betrayal
"Lily Allen Presents West End Girl" is a fearless display from a woman reclaiming her dignity. Here's how the concert show unfolds.
Kash Patel Sues The Atlantic for $250 Million Over Article Claiming Excessive Drinking
Mr. Patel sued the publication for defamation, asking for $250 million in damages. A spokeswoman for The Atlantic called the suit “meritless.”
Delaware nurse practitioner raises awareness and funds to end women’s No. 1 health threat
NEWARK, Del., April 20, 2026— While the large majority of cardiac events can be prevented, cardiovascular disease (CVD) continues to be the leading cause of death in women.[1] In recognition of her energy and passion to fight back against women’s...
Georgia's Vibrant District Is The Entertainment Hub Of Savannah's Scenic Riverfront
Aside from stunningly romantic riverfront views, the Plant Riverside District in Savannah, Georgia, offers many restaurants, shopping spots, and exhibits.
Biggest party in Romanian coalition set to demand PM's resignation, political crisis looms
Romania's Social Democrats are widely expected to withdraw their support for Liberal Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan on Monday, likely ushering in months of political instability that will pressure debt, credit ratings and the receipt of EU funds.
Romania Faces Fresh Political Crisis With Premier Under Fire
Romania is bracing for fresh political turbulence with Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan poised to defy a call by the biggest ruling party to resign in a showdown that may lead to a collapse of the ruling alliance.
WrestleMania 42 Night 2 results, full list of winners
WWE WrestleMania 42 is in the books, after an action-packed weekend at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. On Sunday night, Night 2 took place with four championships on the line. In the main event, Roman Reigns pinned CM Punk…
Are you a woman who makes life easier for everyone else? Beware – you could endanger your health
A new claim is doing the rounds online: that women who are too nice risk getting an autoimmune disease. And while aspects of this message are clearly dubious, there’s a reason it is resonating, writes Emma Beddington
Deputies shoot woman in metro Atlanta county while responding to mental health disturbance
The Rockdale County Sheriff’s Office said a woman was shot while deputies responded to a mental health disturbance on Saturday.
Computer science was once a 'golden ticket' — now it's seeing the biggest enrollment drop of any major in 6 years. What students are choosing instead
Nobel Prize–winning economist Simon Johnson said AI has "substantially wiped out" coding as a reliable source of opportunity.
Chicago Heights woman overcomes health issues to earn nursing degree
Nursing student Beatrice Agbayewa of Chicago Heights will receive her degree from Rasmussen University, overcoming migraines.
How to love someone of the opposite party
A progressive Gen Z woman shares her experience dating a Republican, emphasizing dialogue and understanding without compromising core values.
Report: Romano claims full future agreement for Liverpool star
Robertson Exit Looms as Liverpool Face Summer ShiftThere is a quiet inevitability to the way football moves on. At Liverpool, where eras tend to be defined by consistency and identity, the prospect of...
‘More needs to be done’: Former congresswoman and survivor laments lack of protections against sexual abuse
Vermont woman turns childlove of cotton candy into creative business
Kristie Armstrong is the owner of Crazy Cotton Candy Lady. She turned her childhood love of cotton candy into a creative business.
An 80-year-old woman has an elite VO2 max thanks to simple habits
Linda Kelly is 80 years old. She's as fit as someone decades younger and has an elite-level VO₂ max. Her easy daily habits add up to peak longevity.
Texas woman moving to Spain AI codes furniture marketplace
Johanna Abzug tried selling her furniture on Facebook Marketplace, but said buyers were "uncommitted." She decided to vibe code her own platform.
Woman killed, three injured after disturbance at far North Dallas business, police say
Exclusive | Ilhan Omar Says She Isn’t a Multimillionaire, Blames Accounting Error
The Minnesota Democratic congresswoman, facing potential investigations pushed by President Trump and House Republicans, said she isn’t as wealthy as documents she previously submitted to Congress suggest.
Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2 director "really proud" the gay romance he pushed for, which is somehow totally different to "woke" games' representation, is up for awards
Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2 director Daniel Vávra has tweeted that he's proud of the game's gay romance storyline in totally normal fashion.
Medical malpractice claim filed against McLeod Health involving death has settled: Lawyer
A Medical malpractice claim filed against McLeod Health involving the death of Flora Mae Clark of the Fairmont Robeson County woman has been settled, according
Trans woman leaves role with Portsmouth women's health charity
Steph Richards' endometriosis charity work was criticised by former Home Secretary Suella Braverman.
Roman Space Telescope Science Platform Will Open New Frontiers in Space Science
Preparations for NASA's soon-to-launch Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope have already introduced historic changes to the field of astronomy. Starting in 2027, Roman will deliver an unprecedented volume of complex survey data that will be impractical to download to individual computers for analysis. Astronomers and engineers at the Space Telescope Science Institute (STScI), working in close collaboration with the mission’s partners at NASA and Caltech/IPAC, have met these new developments head
Pope Leo decries those who 'manipulate religion' for military, economic or political gain
Roman Catholic Pope Leo spoke out against people "who manipulate religion and the very name of God for their own military, economic, or political gain."
Small business owner travels from SA to California as official vendor for Karol G pop-up event
Around her birthday, the woman behind San Antonio boutique Chasing Camila learned that she’d been selected as an official vendor at Karol G’s “Bichota” Flea Market — a pop-up event in California during Coachella.
Roman Space Telescope Science Platform Will Open New Frontiers in Space Science
With the release of the cloud-hosted Roman Research Nexus,
Sesame Street, Science Fest, Holloman Airshow among things to do
El Paso offers a variety of events this week, from Sesame Street and UTEP Bhutanese celebration to a science fest and airshow.
Scientists discover natural hormone that reverses obesity
A hormone called FGF21 can reverse obesity in mice by activating a newly identified brain circuit tied to metabolism. Surprisingly, it works in the hindbrain—the same region targeted by GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy—but through a completely different mechanism. Instead of suppressing appetite, FGF21 ramps up the body’s energy burning. This insight could pave the way for more targeted weight-loss and liver disease treatments.
Vance tells Pope Leo to ‘be careful’, Homan says ‘leave politics alone’
Senior Trump administration officials escalated criticism of the Vatican on Tuesday, with Vice President Vance warning Pope Leo XIV to “be careful” when speaking about theology and White House Bord…
Local priest recalls woman, who cut young boy in Walmart, barricading in rectory years prior
When the priest heard Guzman had slashed a 3-year-old boy’s face in a Walmart parking lot, he wasn't surprised.
Husband of woman killed in Laconia says wife tried to help her son with mental health issues
The husband of a woman who was killed Tuesday in Laconia told News 9 that her son, who is charged in her death, has struggled with mental health issues.
River City Science Academy teacher arrested, accused ‘grooming’ student using messages on Canva app
A River City Science Academy teacher was arrested Tuesday and charged with felony counts alleging he solicited a romantic relationship with a student and unlawfully used a communication device, the Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office said.
Jury selection starts for Harvey Weinstein's latest retrial in N.Y. rape case
It's the third time that jurors will weigh whether he raped a woman.
City and Olympic boss joust over who gets big Games contracts
Your morning catch-up: L.A. officials want more business from 2028 Olympic committee, another woman accused Swalwell of assault and more big stories
HealPort Raises 1.2M USD to Scale Global Digital Health Infrastructure
MUSCAT, Oman, April 15, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- HealPort announced that it has raised $1.2 million in funding to accelerate development and deployment of its integrated platforms and supporting infrastructure designed to help governments, health agencies, and institutions strengthen health system intelligence, planning, and decision-making. The funding will be allocated to three priorities: infrastructure development and integration, global ecosystem expansion, and establishing HealPort as the
Police investigate burglary at south Lincoln adult entertainment store
Officers determined a man wearing a tan jacket carrying a bag broke a glass door and entered the business, according to LPD.
She Was a MAGA Darling. She’s About to Be Unemployed. Her New Book Isn’t Helping.
Did one woman kick off the “generational upheaval” on college campuses? She thinks so.
Ocean City heats up with Fager's Island Spring Wine Fest. a punk legend
The Spring Wine Fest at Fager's Island and an appearance by punk legend HR at Crawl Street Taven have Ocean City stages heating up. Here's the slate.
Ousmane Diomande: United’s plan for Sporting gem emerges
Manchester United’s defeat at the hands of Leeds United underlined just how thin and weak their backline is.Leny Yoro started alongside Lisandro Martinez in the absence of Harry Maguire. Dominic Cal...
Minnesota business owner facing dozens of tax charges
A Minnesota woman is facing dozens of charges related to filing fraudulent tax returns.
Border Czar Tom Homan Calls for Church Leaders to ‘Stay Out of Politics’
Homan, a Catholic, commented after President Trump denounced Pope Leo XIV.
Police: Woman used crowbar to steal checks from Upstate business
Clemson police say a woman was arrested after checks were stolen from a local business drop box in an early morning break-in.
Woman accuses Eric Swalwell of rape in 2018, says she will report it to authorities
Her attorney said at a news conference that she will not present evidence to the media.
What Swalwell’s exit means for Democrats in California’s governor race
Billionaire Tom Steyer and ex-congresswoman Katie Porter stand to benefit the most in a Democratic field with no clear front-runner, several strategists said.
WATCH: Woman alleges violent sexual assault by Rep. Eric Swalwell in news conference with lawyers
Business Woman, Legislator, Philanthropist and Alumna Toni Boucher Describes Her Journey from Poverty to the American Dream
Boucher, one of the School of Business’ most important alumni benefactors and the undergraduate commencement speaker this spring, has long been a champion o ...
Woman alleges violent sexual assault by Eric Swalwell: 'He raped me’
A day after Rep. Eric Swallwell said he would resign from Congress, a Beverly Hills woman detailed what she described as a violent sexual encounter with the Democratic lawmaker.
Scientists discover why bread can cause weight gain without extra calories
Bread and other carbohydrate staples may be doing more than just filling plates—they could be quietly reshaping metabolism. In a surprising twist, researchers found that mice strongly preferred carbs like bread, rice, and wheat, abandoning their regular diet entirely. Even without eating more calories, they gained weight and body fat, not because they overate, but because their bodies burned less energy.
Where to watch WrestleMania 42 on the big screen in Memphis
CM Punk vs. Roman Reigns on the big screen? WrestleMania 42 will be shown at the Malco Paradiso in Memphis this weekend.
The Message Man: Ferraro Award Winner Matt Corridoni ’13 Helps Political Campaigns Connect
Forty years after Geraldine Ferraro ’56 became the first woman nominated for vice president by a major political party, Kamala Harris mounted her own ba...
Woman, 26, Had Excessive Itching but Was Told 'It's Just One of Those Things.' She Then Self-Diagnosed Her Cancer (Exclusive)
A young woman suffered from excessive itching and was dismissed by multiple doctors, before she eventually self-diagnosed herself with cancer. Sumbul Ari recalls her health journey in an exclusive interview with PEOPLE.
Doctors expose ‘buffalo hump’ as potential sign of hidden health conditions
A "buffalo hump" — a fatty bulge at the base of the neck — can sometimes signal underlying medical conditions, experts say. Causes range from poor posture to hormonal disorders.
The thriving and lucrative business of antisemitism
Today’s trendy, provocative, and libelous claims against Jews have replaced the entertainment of the Roman Colosseum, where Christians were thrown to the lions for sport.
Hacking women's political underrepresentation, Dutch-style
Some 504 women were elected in recent Dutch local elections, with a "Vote for a Woman" campaign boosting their chances to gather preferential votes. Despite the record figure, women remain underrepresented.
Ancient Egyptian stone monument depicting a Roman emperor as a pharaoh discovered in Luxor
A stone slab depicting the Roman emperor Tiberius was found during restoration work at the Karnak temple complex in Luxor.
Chamber of Commerce Presents Achievement Awards
Event also marked 110th of the chamber’s presence in Oswego [caption id=attachment_10469 align=alignright width=450] Abby Waever and Keara Patterson (in the middle) receive the Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group.[/caption] The Greater Oswego-Fulton Chamber of Commerce (GOFCC) on March 4 hosted its 2026 Annual Meeting, presented by Constellation, at the Lake Ontario Event and Conference Center in Oswego. The event’s theme, Rooted in Community. The meeting celebrated the GOFCC’s 110th anniversary in the Oswego community and 10th anniversary of integration with CenterState CEO. The chamber also unveiled a new logo. “I am proud to say the GOFCC has been a force for business success, growth and opportunity, supporting organizations of every size, connecting neighbors and entrepreneurs and ensuring that every voice in Oswego County is heard,” said GOFCC Executive Director Sara Broadwell. The event featured keynote remarks from Novelis’s Kevin Schutt, vice president, manufacturing and production support at Novelis North America. [caption id=attachment_10454 align=alignright width=450] Maria Hudson of Constellation, holding the award, receives the Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award.[/caption] The GOFCC recognized the following organizations and individuals with achievement awards: • Oswego County Impact & Excellence Award, presented to Oswego County Office of Mobility Management. This award Honors a small business or nonprofit organization that demonstrates outstanding achievement through innovation, growth and measurable positive impact on Oswego County’s economy or quality of life. • Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group. This award recognizes an individual, business or organization whose long-term leadership, investment or philanthropy has significantly advanced the vitality, resilience and future of Oswego County’s communities. • Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award, presented to Maria Hudson of Constellation. This award honors a woman in business who has made a meaningful impact on her community, inspired others through her leadership, and exemplified the values of service, integrity and empowerment. This award is presented in tribute to the late Nancy Premo, CenterState CEO’s former vice president of Human Resources.
U.S. Moves to Deport Son of Prominent Figure in Iranian Revolution
Federal agents arrested a man whose mother served as a spokeswoman for the Islamist embassy captors during the hostage crisis that began in 1979.
Iowa romance author Denise Williams loves happy endings
Her first book, “How to Fail at Flirting,” was published in 2020. Since then she’s written 10 more. All of them have been in the romance genre, including her most recent release, “The Re-Do List.”
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Your nose could detect Alzheimer’s years before symptoms begin
Losing your sense of smell might signal Alzheimer’s far earlier than expected. Scientists found that immune cells in the brain actively destroy smell-related nerve fibers after detecting abnormal signals on their surfaces. This damage begins in early stages of the disease, well before cognitive decline. The discovery could help identify at-risk patients sooner and improve treatment timing.
Two simple eating habits linked to lower weight, study finds
A major study suggests that when you eat could play a key role in staying lean. People who fast longer overnight and start their day with an early breakfast were more likely to have a lower BMI years later. Scientists think this is because eating earlier aligns better with the body’s internal clock. But skipping breakfast as part of intermittent fasting didn’t offer the same advantage—and may even be tied to unhealthy habits.
Cody Canada to receive Restless Spirit Award at Stillwater's Gypsy Cafe
Cody Canada of Cross Canadian Ragweed will receive the Restless Spirit Award at the Bob Childers' Gypsy Cafe festival.
OU alum spotlights overlooked voices in sports with podcast ‘Sooner Girl Sports Pod’
An OU alum is giving a voice to student-athletes with “Sooner Girl Sports Pod,” a one-woman podcast covering all things OU sports.
'Docs said I'll never walk': How this woman reversed her health with Indian food and is now baking healing cakes
Mira, born as Pallavi Kumar Aggarwal in Patna, has led a life full of remarkable turns. She studied fashion design, ventured into print modelling, and.
In praise of popular science
As a kid, I was enthusiastically and unreservedly in favor of a manned space program. Our destiny lay in the stars, I figured. Get people out there. We need Star Trek here and now. As I got older, I became rather disenchanted with the idea. Humans are expensive, fragile, and inefficient as space cargo. We could flood the solar system with 100 robotic probes for the price of any single manned mission and get back just as useful data. Besides, it turns out space travel is dangerous. Tusk is a reader-supported publication. To support this work, please become a paid subscriber. Subscribe When it came to the recent Artemis II mission, my cynical side didn’t really see the point. Flying around the Moon and back is literally something we did before I was born, and I once owned a Members Only jacket. Apollo 8 circled the Moon ten times and returned to Earth safely the same month that “Chitty Chitty Bang Bang” was released. What was the point of repeating a feat that far braver people once did with tin foil and slide rules? Yet I’ve surprised myself with how moving I’ve found the Artemis II mission to be. The photos have been stunning. The crew has been professional and engaging. There have been modest but important milestones — the farthest humans have travelled from Earth; the first woman, person of color, and non-American to leave low-Earth orbit; innovations in communication, and more. One thing that really stood out is that this is really NASA at its finest. Not that this is the most important mission they ever pulled off, but they did this in a competent way that celebrated the achievements and kept the crew and the science at the forefront of the project. This wasn’t some billionaire throwing celebrities or cars into orbit as a vanity project — this was a collective effort to send experts in to do a job and come home safely. We don’t see that sort of thing much these days. I’m guessing few people would describe many government agencies as inspiring, but this one counts for me. We’re living through a profoundly anti-science era, in which pathbreaking, lifesaving discoveries like mRNA vaccines are routinely downplayed or even vilified. As I’ve noted previously, this era is something like that of the Red Scare in the 1940s and 50s, in which “egghead” professors were portrayed as out of touch or even hostile to regular Americans. One of the things that helped break that spell was Sputnik — the Soviet communications satellite that demonstrated that the United States was falling behind in crucial scientific research and applications. Its launch triggered a new appreciation for American science and goaded the federal government into supporting research universities and labs. I’m not saying that Artemis is the equivalent of Sputnik, but it potentially reminds people that there’s some value to scientific endeavors and the human faces attached to them. Despite my love for the show “For All Mankind,” I’m far from convinced that there’s any real value to putting colonies on the Moon or Mars that would justify the capital investment and the massive health risks to the astronauts. But sending scientific good will ambassadors on a trip into space once in a while? Bring it. Share
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Pantheon Review by Walter Cummins The image of Alfred Tennyson I’ve carried for decades goes back to the childhood card game of Authors that depicts him with a stately continence sharpened by a jutting black beard. He’s formidable, his aura superior. Holmes opens his biography of the youthful Tennyson by describing the similar formality of the imposing Tennyson statue at Trinty College Cambridge, sharing the honor with other Trinity greats, including Isaac Newton, Francis Bacon, and Thomas Babington Macaulay. Holmes doesn’t want to chip away at that statue but rather reveal its inner youthful core of the man—tall, handsome, and talented but unformed, emerging from a disturbed family of addicted or insane male siblings and four unusual sisters struggling under a violent alcoholic clergyman father. Alfred was certainly statuesque, but would he end up a block of unformed stone like his equally promising brothers? He was youngest of three equally regarded Tennyson brothers at Cambridge, all bright, handsome, and talented, in fact Alfred regarded by some as less promising than his elders who also wrote poetry. Yet Alfred wrote one of his major poems, “The Kraken,” at twenty, revealing both his talent, his interest in geological forces, and the haunting creature that embodied his anxieties. While Holmes focuses on Tennyson of the 1830s and 1840s, he can’t tell his story without exploring his involvement with the Victorian intellectual upheaval. Tennyson was fascinated by new scientific perspectives, following the latest findings as soon as books and articles were published. He was especially taken with Charles Lyell’s deep studies of geology and the discovery of fossils and a timeline of the planet’s development that did much to question fundamental religious assumptions. The impact of these discoveries is reflected in Tennyson’s poetry and led to the crisis in belief he shared with so many contemporaries. He was especially taken by the cycles of destruction and renewal that informed the struggles he confronted in In Memoriam, Maud, and Idylls of the King. Tennyson was only one of the eventual major figures at Cambridge at the same time, young men just beginning to realize their potential. Charles Darwin was at Christ College, although there is no evidence that he and Tennyson even met as students or later in life. Yet evolution became significant in Tennyson’s thinking and the issues of his poetry. One of Tennyson’s best and most important Cambridge friends was Edward FitzGerald, who became the translator of The Rubáiyát of Omar Khayyám and in their on and off relationship served as Tennyson’s harshest critic. FitzGerald was also a friend of the novelist William Makepeace Thackeray, the two of them partying in Paris as undergraduates. That connection led to a friendship between Thackeray and Tennyson. Others who came to play significant roles in Tennyson’s life were Thomas Carlyle, the Brownings, and the Pre-Raphaelites. Tennyson’s deepest friend at college was Arthur Hallam, who at twenty wrote a glowing review of Tennyson’s first poetry collection, travelled on European adventures with him, and fell in love with his sister Emily. Hallam was also regarded as one more very promising Cambridge student. His sudden death at twenty-two in Vienna from a stroke while travelling with his father devastated many friends, but perhaps Tennyson most of all. He did not write immediate poems of grief but took years to compile those collected in In Memoriam A.H.H., published in 1850, almost twenty years after Hallam’s death For all of Tennyson’s early poetic successes and successes, Holmes reveals him as an often troubled young man suffering periods of depression, fearing planetary upheaval, concerned about supporting himself, disappointed in romances, and worried that he would inherit the family’s mental illness tendencies. Yet despite his seeming withdrawals, he was always writing poetry that he kept private and would not let go, constantly revising. 1850 became a transformative year for Tennyson. He finally consented to publishing In Memoriam with a last-minute prologue that acknowledged God and perhaps convinced the religious Emily Sellwood to marry him after years of pursuit.. He opened up to Emily, revealing his struggles with fears of depression and “weird seizures.” The devastating event of that time was the stillborn death of his unnamed first son. It shook him, but Emily’s faith brought them closer and convinced him to believe in an afterlife. Two later sons survived. With the death of William Wordworth in April of 1950, Tennyson was named poet laureate at age forty-one, reluctantly accepting. It’s as if Tennyson’s life split in half in that year. He lived another forty years, now a recognized success, with the prestige of being an official poet writing patriotic verse, wealthy and revered, no longer the insecure young man seeking an outlet for his immense talent. He earned a place in the Authors deck, now dignified and in 1884 elevated to the peerage as Arthur, Lord Tennyson. Richard Holmes is the author of twenty previous books on the Romantics and Victorians, several of which received awards. The Boundless Deep was shortlisted for the 2025 Baillie Gifford Prize for Non-Fiction. He captures the complex vicissitudes of Tennyson’s youth, illustrated by frequent excerpts from the poetry, placing that life in the full context of the shattering discoveries that led to an upheaval of thought in the Victorian age.
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Clowning around
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A clear message.
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A clear message.
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