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Ask an Expert: How Can the Science Community Protect Science and Democracy?
Join Science Rising: a movement of truth-tellers, guided by integrity, creativity, and justice, to serve the public.
A Look At Flutter Entertainment’s Valuation As Shares Rebound But Long Term Returns Lag
Event driven snapshot Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) recently attracted attention after a period of mixed share performance, with the stock rising over the past month but still showing declines over the past year and year to date. See our latest analysis for Flutter Entertainment. At a share price of US$112.94, Flutter’s recent momentum has been strong in the short term, with a 30 day share price return of 20.20%. However, the 1 year total shareholder return is still down 58.07%, which...
Social Security is Facing a Political Crisis
On Tuesday the Social Security Trustees released their latest report on the system’s finances. The numbers didn’t change much: Unless something is done, the Old Age Survivors and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program, Social Security’s official name, will be unable to pay full benefits starting in either 2032 or 2034, depending on some technical issues. That’s not far away: If the Trustees are right, the prospect of a Social Security crisis will loom over the next presidential administration. It’s important to understand, however, the nature of the looming crisis. It won’t be an economic crisis. It won’t even be a serious fiscal crisis. Whatever you may have heard, Social Security isn’t in danger of going bankrupt. What we’re facing, instead, is potential political crisis. Congress and the White House could easily take action to sustain America’s retirement system. But given the current state of our politics, there’s no guarantee that they will. There is a widespread misunderstanding of how Social Security works. While Social Security was designed to look like a pension fund, it isn’t. A pension fund pays benefits out of a stock of assets it has accumulated over time. In contrast, Social Security operates as a government transfer program, like food stamps or Medicaid. Now, unlike food stamps — but like the highway trust fund — Social Security is on paper supported by a dedicated tax, the payroll tax, that is assigned to that program. But I say “on paper” because from an economic point of view assigning the payroll tax to Social Security is just an accounting convention. What matters for the U.S. economy is the overall balance between government spending and government revenue, not the difference between one type of spending and one source of revenue. So there’s no inherent economic significance to the fact that by 2034 payroll tax receipts will be insufficient to cover promised benefits. There is, however, a legislative issue. As long as the Social Security Administration can pay benefits out of payroll taxes and its cash reserve, there’s no need for Congress to vote each year to authorize benefits — they just keep going out until further notice. However, once those resources become insufficient, benefits will fall —by 17 percent according to the Trustees — unless Congress passes new legislation that “tops up” Social Security’s finances. Yet the current administration and Republican party are such extremists that there is a real risk that Social Security will be held hostage on behalf of their goals. If this should come to pass, the hostage-takers will claim that shoring up Social Security is unaffordable. Right on cue, Mike Johnson, the Trump-sycophant Speaker of the House, declared on Monday that “entitlement programs” like Social Security “have to be adjusted and fixed,” and that Republicans will introduce a plan to that effect next year. But this is a ploy, because while the cost of maintaining Social Security benefits at their promised level isn’t trivial, it is in fact affordable. According to the Trustees’ report, the actuarial balance of OASDI up through 2050 — the amount of additional funds it would need to keep paying full benefits for the next 25 years — is 1.06 percent of GDP. To put that number in perspective, the Trump administration proposes increasing military spending next year by $420 billion, equivalent to about 1.4 percent of GDP – without any discussion of whether that’s affordable Yet how did we get to the point where Social Security will need to be topped up? The main answer is that we have an aging population, with a growing ratio of retirees collecting benefits to workers paying into the system: Trump’s anti-immigration policies are making this problem worse. According to the Trustees’ report, lower immigration will deepen Social Security’s financial hole because many immigrants are working-age adults who will pay into the system for decades before they collect benefits. In fact, this problem may be much bigger than the report acknowledges: The report’s baseline assumption is that we’ll have net immigration of almost 1.2 million people a year, and even the pessimistic case assumes 750,000 a year. Meanwhile actual net immigration has already been cut far below that — and may now be negative. Moreover, Social Security is being financially damaged by growing income inequality in America. Payroll taxes are levied only on wages up to $184,500, and they don’t touch capital income. With the distribution of income increasingly shifting from labor to capital, as well as becoming more unequal among wage-earners, revenue from the Social Security payroll tax has been falling as a share of national income. From 1990 to 2024, it fell from 5.02 percent of gross domestic income to 4.46 percent. Which brings me to the question that, these days, we ask about everything: How might Social Security be affected by the advent of AI? A short answer: If, as many of us fear, AI accelerates rising income inequality, it will further reduce the payroll tax receipts that currently pay for Social Security and further endanger its finances. On the other hand, if AI, as its advocates promise, leads to faster economic growth, it will increase the potential tax base that could and should be used to support Social Security and other social insurance programs. But to take advantage of that larger base, we’ll have to get serious about taxing wealth and capital income. Is Social Security in trouble? Yes, but only because of the way its financing is currently structured — a structure that no longer works well because our society and economy have become so unequal. Moreover, Trump’s immigration policies are further endangering its already deteriorating financial condition. So don’t believe Republicans’ gaslighting that it will be necessary to cut Social Security benefits. All that is necessary to preserve Social Security is political will to raise taxes on the wealthy and a sensible immigration policy. MUSICAL CODA Actually 67 under current law.
Why India’s deadly dengue crisis is now no longer confined to the monsoons
Experts warn that rising temperatures, erratic rainfall and rapid urbanisation have transformed the seasonal disease.
Satya Nadella has a message for Microsoft's tokenmaxxers
Microsoft's CEO said workers should use the right AI model for the job as companies look for ways to control rising AI costs.
The wide Samsung Galaxy Z Fold8 and the Galaxy Watch Ultra 2 receive new certifications
They will both be available in India, unsurprisingly. Samsung's upcoming wide-format Galaxy Z Fold, most recently believed to be called Galaxy Z Fold8...
Richard Feynman’s 50-Year-Old 'Restaurant Problem' Finally Decoded. It Shows Why People Settle for Good Enough
The restaurant problem reveals why human shortcuts can work surprisingly well.
Gas prices push inflation to a three-year high, squeezing consumers and businesses
Rising gas prices pushed inflation to its highest level in three years last month, a headache for the Federal Reserve and a potential political challenge for the Trump administration as midterm elections near
Nelson gets ‘goosebumps' from rise up Sixers' ranks
Rising to the No. 2 spot in the Sixers’ front office is a “surreal” feeling for Chester native Jameer Nelson.
Surprising things about visiting San Antonio, Texas, from New Englander
As a New Englander, I was surprised to find all that the Texas city of San Antonio had to offer, including bustling art, wine, and dining scenes.
Discover this week's must-read health stories
Top health news: WHO declares Ebola emergency in DRC and Uganda; AMR rising as climate changes, study finds; Europe’s aid cuts under scrutiny, and more.
Business Travel Holds Steady as Travel Costs Rise
SAP Concur data shows companies have maintained business travel in 2026 despite rising fuel prices and higher travel costs. Learn more.
Neo-Nazi lost in east Germany, but extremism remains threat
A neo-Nazi candidate surprisingly lost by small margin in a local election in the eastern state of Saxony. Many are relieved, yet concern remains.
How the Iran war could drive conflicts in countries thousands of miles away
Fuel and food prices are rising. Mass protests could follow.
The surprising science behind the 2026 World Cup grass
How scientists are engineering the perfect World Cup pitch—one so flawless that players never notice it
Independents are rising in Idaho political contests
For years, I have believed that the future of moderate to right of center politics in Idaho is what I call fusion politics. | Opinion
Opinion | A Different Kind of ‘Values Voter’ Will Power the 2026 Midterms
A new politics of morality is rising in the Democratic Party.
Once a rising star, Nancy Mace suffers resounding defeat in governor’s race
The South Carolina congresswoman finished fifth in the state’s GOP gubernatorial primary, according to unofficial returns, solidly losing even her own home county and district.
Policy and politics are hitting CT families with rising summer costs
If you wanna get away this summer, the economic cost of a far-away war in Iran might affect your ability to spend here at home.
Hilo business closes storefront amid rising prices
A survey of Hawaiʻi businesses revealed that tariffs and trade policies have affected 86% of local businesses in the last year.
Is Social Security keeping up with your cost of living? Share your story
Many older Americans are finding it even harder to keep up with the ever-rising cost of living these days.
Packers’ rookie a rising star during minicamp practices
The Packers spent this offseason revamping the defense. From selecting Dani Dennis-Sutton in the fourth round to bolster the pass rush, getting more experienced at linebacker, by trading for veteran Zaire Franklin, to investing Green Bay’s first pick of the draft, in the second round, in cornerback Brandon Cisse, the Packers’ defense will look much [...]
Florida Georgia Line Signs With CAA And The Core Entertainment
Days after surprising the country world with a CMA Fest set at Nashville’s Nissan Stadium and confirming their reunion, Florida Georgia Line cemented its
Developer behind Star Fox on Nintendo Switch 2 has been revealed, and it's surprising
The developer behind Star Fox on Nintendo Switch 2 has now been revealed, and it’s probably what most hadn’t been expected. This is not an internal Nintendo team or even another studio that was previously thrown around. Instead, it’s being handled by Velan. Who is Velan, you ask? Well, the company actually teamed up previously with Nintendo on Mario Kart...
Some drugs 'fail' because of unrealistic testing conditions, scientists discover
A drug once dismissed as ineffective suddenly worked—when scientists tested it under more realistic conditions that mimic the human body. In this surprising new discovery, Northwestern University scientists ...
How New York’s Kathy Hochul is navigating a complex political moment
The Democratic governor must contend with a rising populist movement on both her left and right flanks.
Surprising parts about my first adults-only cruise with Virgin Voyages
I took my first adults-only cruise with the luxury cruise line Virgin Voyages. I was surprised to find a playground and a tattoo parlor on the ship.
Small Business Association of Michigan CEO says health care reckoning coming for small businesses
Small Business Association of Michigan CEO Brian Calley says the rising cost of employee healthcare is the looming giant for employers.
Tried assisting living for $7,000 but too expensive, bought small home
Lana Mountford, 74, moved from assisted living to a two-bedroom house due to rising costs, managing health issues with a part-timer caregiver.
Pet Owners Prioritize Pet Health & Wellness Despite Rising Costs, Survey Shows
Plenty of household budgets have gotten tighter lately. Yet for many pet owners, there’s one line item they seem reluctant to touch: their pet. New survey data released by Elanco Animal Health suggest...
Opinion: U.S. lead in science is shrinking fast as China, India and even Iran catch up
A country with one of the fastest-rising scientific profiles operates under sweeping international sanctions, has limited access to Western research infrastructure and is rarely mentioned in American conversations about global
Volant student recognized for excellence in environmental science
Jordan Deems of Volant, a rising senior environmental science major at Westminster College, received the Helen R. Ferguson Scholarship for excellence in environmental science during the annual Bartramian Audubon Society
Winners and losers from MotoGP’s unusual Hungarian GP
MotoGP’s second visit to Balaton Park upset the usual pecking order, with the series’ biggest star rising to the challenge as others floundered
Report: Rising number of uninsured children in Arkansas
Arkansas ranked 43rd in the Annie E. Casey Foundation’s 2026 KIDS COUNT Data Book. The state improved two spots from its ranking of 45th in last year’s Data Book, while...
MOSI Monday | STEM Splash Art! The Science of Floating Ink
STEM Splash Art! The Science of Floating Ink...this activity demonstrates density and buoyancy in a surprising way.
The Probiotic Breakthrough for Natural Anxiety Relief and Better Mental Health
A surprising gut-brain discovery suggests that anxiety could one day be treated with specially designed probiotics. Could anxiety be shaped, at least in part, by tiny organisms living in the gut? Research from Duke-NUS Medical School and the National Neuroscience Institute of Singapore points to
Times Opinion: US lead in science is shrinking fast as China, India and even Iran catch up
A country with one of the fastest-rising scientific profiles operates under sweeping international sanctions, has limited access to Western research infrastructure and is rarely mentioned in American conversations about global innovation. That country is Iran.
Wayne Winegarden: Politics and conflict are driving up your food costs
The federal government can, and should, help families struggling with rising food costs by reforming the ill-considered regulatory policies that are meaningfully inflating the price of food.
The health tracker backlash is here – so ditch the data and set yourself free
A rebellion is rising against the dull, highly optimised lives big tech wants for us. It’s not a second too soon, writes Emma Beddington
Animals have personalities. Here’s what shapes them.
From shelter dogs to stickleback fish, the forces that shape animal personality are surprisingly familiar.
From unfilled gas tanks to fewer frills, retailers see US consumers rethink their spending
U.S. consumers haven’t stopped spending since the Iran war drove up fuel prices.
US lead in science is shrinking fast as China, India and even Iran catch up
A country with one of the fastest-rising scientific profiles operates under sweeping international sanctions, has limited access to Western research infrastructure and is rarely mentioned in American conversations about global
America In Focus: US job market is rebounding, but economic frustration persists
U.S. employers added a surprising 172,000 jobs in May as the labor market continued to show resilience in the face of rising costs from the Iran war.
Scientists found a surprisingly simple way to create powerful quantum states
A team at the University of Chicago has discovered a surprisingly simple way to create powerful quantum states that are normally difficult to produce. By making small adjustments to the energy levels of atoms inside an optical cavity, researchers can generate a wide variety of highly entangled states without adding complicated hardware.
Why is young colon cancer rising? New research shows food, gut health
Young colon cancer may not be not the same disease doctors are used to treating. Researchers are discovering new links to modern diets and gut toxins.
Why is young colon cancer rising? New research shows food, gut health
Young colon cancer may not be not the same disease doctors are used to treating. Researchers are discovering new links to modern diets and gut toxins.
Fujimori or Sanchez? Peru vote marks 10 years of turmoil
Sunday's presidential runoff in Peru pits Keiko Fujimori against Roberto Sanchez in an election marked by social tension, rising crime and declining confidence in political institutions.
Trump Greets Farmers in Wisconsin, but Says He Could Be Home Watching TV
President Trump was in Wisconsin to reassure farmers who have been stung by his tariff policies and rising fuel prices from the war in Iran.
A tiny atomic shift gives scientists powerful control over metals
A team at the University of Minnesota discovered that changing a metal film's thickness by just a few nanometers can dramatically alter how it behaves electronically. The finding reveals a surprising new way to control metals and could help power future advances in electronics, catalysis, and quantum technology.
Latest mock draft sends rising SEC shortstop to the Athletics
This slugger could be a great fit for the A's.
Steam Machine summer launch confirmed in hopeful update, but still no price
The Steam Machine and Steam Frame have been hit by rising component costs even before launch, but Steam still seems...
LARRY KUDLOW: Trump loves business, and business is booming
The Trumpian boom: jobs rising more than double the predications, prior months revised higher. wage income beating inflation
Graham Platner Controversy Deepens Democratic Unease Before Maine Senate Primary
The party’s politicians, officials and strategists wrestled with how to respond to new reporting about Graham Platner, with worries rising about his vulnerabilities in a general election.
Morning Preview: A Jobs Report Surprise, Immigration Showdown and Rising Heat Risks
Today, economists and consumers are reacting to a better-than-expected job report and regulators are rethinking how schools spend billions on internet access and classroom technology. At the same time, the first major heat waves of the season are putting pressure on public health systems as summer ...
State Health Plan to vote on price hikes for older state workers, retirees
People on the Medicare Advantage version of the State Health Plan could soon face higher drug prices, copays and deductibles as the state struggles to pay for rising healthcare costs.
Asha Sharma commits to "resetting" Xbox, prioritising exclusivity and addressing AI in new strategy
Xbox CEO outlines plans to become "the number one gaming and entertainment company" amid rising component costs and platform competition
Why is Taylor Ward’s walk rate blowing up?
The outfielder we used to forget was on the team is putting up some surprising numbers.
Rising Serb star Stankovic returns to Inter Milan
Serbian international Aleksandar Stankovic will return to Italian champions Inter Milan, the Serie A club confirmed on Friday.Inter Milan said they had "exercised the buyback clause" to re-sign Stankovic from Club Brugge after just one season.
Why Does the Sun Make You Sneeze? Scientists Reveal the Surprising Truth - Futura-Sciences
Why Do Some People Sneeze in Sunlight? Have you ever found yourself sneezing when you suddenly move from the shade to the bright outdoors, or even after switching on a powerful light? You might be part of the roughly one in four people who experience what’s called the photic sneeze...
Boston Celtics insider drops surprising Giannis Antetokounmpo reality check
The Boston Celtics have emerged as a potential wild card in the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade conversation. Following Jaylen Brown’s unusual comments on Twitch after Boston’s postseason exit, some around the league have speculated that he may be open to seeking a situation where he can lead his own team. Antetokounmpo has also been mentioned as [...]
Big banks’ gloves come off in their fight with crypto
Even for Jamie Dimon, the banking titan who’s not known to mince words, it was a surprising shot across the bow when he described a fellow financier as “full of sh*t.”
Young men are leaving Trump. Can a UFC fight at the White House get them back in the ring?
Do not mistake the massive mixed martial arts arena rising out of the White House lawn for a political statement, insists Ultimate Fighting Championship president Dana White. It is, he told CNN, simply part of the celebration for America’s 250th birthday.
The surprising science-backed reason being in nature makes you feel good
A new study suggests spending time in nature may boost body appreciation, self-compassion and overall life satisfaction.
The surprising science-backed reason being in nature makes you feel good
A new study suggests spending time in nature may boost body appreciation, self-compassion and overall life satisfaction.
Hospitals Are Leading Efforts to Make Health Care More Affordable
Affordability is front and center in conversations across the country, as Americans feel pressure from the rising cost of living and policymakers search for solutions. Hospitals and health systems share their concerns because we see the impact of high costs every day on the patients and families we serve. Hospitals are not waiting to do their part. Across the nation, they are already implementing efforts to make healthcare more affordable and accessible, as well as providing solutions that could lower costs across the entire health care system.
AI Sycophancy Serving As A Gateway Diverting People Toward Using AI For Their Mental Health Advice
AI sycophancy is rising. It could be that AI sycophancy also prods users into seeking AI mental health advice, which can be good or bad. An AI Insider analysis and scoop.
Scientists identify the origin of noise in spin qubit quantum processors
Charge noise arising from two-level fluctuators is considered to play a key role in causing qubit frequency shifts in silicon spin qubits, resulting in deteriorated gate fidelity. Higher temperatures can improve gate fidelity, but the microscopic origins of this effect and of qubit frequency shift have not yet been established. Now, using statistical simulations, researchers have clarified the parameter regimes under which gate fidelity can be improved and the potential origin of qubit frequency shifts.
China's solar majors charge into batteries as panel sales falter
China's major solar panel manufacturers are ramping up higher-margin battery exports to boost revenue as growth in photovoltaic (PV) sales slows, betting on rising global demand for renewable energy storage to cut reliance on fossil fuels.
Conflict over identity politics could lead to civil war in the long term, Kemi Badenoch says
In an interview for a BBC Radio 4 documentary, England's Identity Crisis, the Conservative leader warned of rising tensions as groups on the left and the right.
Raj Soin College of Business Associate Dean Rachel Sturm named rising education star by Dayton Business Journal
Rachel Sturm, associate dean and professor of management in the Raj Soin College of Business, has built a distinguished career as a scholar, teacher and leader. Continue reading →
Free course from Warrior Rising helps service-disabled Veterans explore business ownership
SDVET LaunchPoint, a free virtual course from Warrior Rising, helps service-disabled Veterans turn their interests and skills into real business.
The Supply Side: Grocery business responds to GLP-1 use
The rising use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs is reshaping consumer spending, which impacts food retailers and suppliers. About 1 in 8 U.S. consumers use drugs that reduce appetites and curb...
Popular weight-loss diet shows surprising impact on serious mental health condition
New UC San Diego research suggests the keto diet may help reduce anorexia nervosa symptoms, with 72% of participants scoring in the recovered or normal range.
Chip Wile isn't leaving VISIT FLORIDA after new job. Instead, he's rising up to Chair
'Chip will continue serving the state he calls home.'
A study of 8,300 older adults revealed a surprising salt habit
A large study of older adults in Brazil found that adding extra salt at the table is still a common habit, especially among men. While too much salt is linked to serious health problems and faster cognitive decline, researchers discovered that women’s salt-shaking habits were tied more closely to lifestyle and diet.
Melinda French Gates invests $215 million in health. Inside her surprising choice
Melinda French Gates is giving $215 million to improve women’s health. Her first-ever grant to benefit menopause and women in midlife.
Samsung's Updated Health App Unsurprisingly Comes With New AI-Powered Features
Samsung will roll out an update for its Health app before launching its new Galaxy Watches.
Cowboys Headlines: Another WR signed, Pickens price tag rising
The latest news and notes around the Cowboys and NFL.
Shanghai urged to unify incentives as EU firms in China flag rising challenges
European chamber pushes for ‘one Shanghai’ policy as survey reveals cross-border capital flow and market access barriers weigh on operations.
Boston leads list of best places for foreign businesses in FT-Nikkei ranking
Massachusetts capital pulls ahead of previous winner Tampa on skilled workforce and rising investment
Google may have surprising new colors for the Pixel 11 series phones
Leaked wallpapers hint at the new colors of the Pixel 11 phones.
Cancer’s favorite escape trick may actually make it easier to kill
Scientists have uncovered a surprising new way the immune system fights cancer, overturning a core belief that has guided immunology for decades. The research found that when cancer cells shut down a key immune-recognition molecule called MHC I—a common trick used to hide from “killer” T cells—they can actually become more vulnerable to attack by a different group of immune cells known as CD4+ “helper” T cells.
Beluga whales keep switching mates and it may be saving their species
Hidden beneath Arctic waters, beluga whales have long kept their family lives a mystery. By analyzing DNA from more than 600 belugas in Alaska’s Bristol Bay over 13 years, researchers uncovered a surprisingly flexible mating system: both males and females regularly have offspring with different partners over their lifetimes.
Parking prices, Costco ‘waiver’ fuel frustration among Fresno's downtown entrepreneurs
Downtown Fresno business owners are voicing frustration over rising parking costs, ongoing construction disruptions and what some describe as a lack of support for local entrepreneurs. The concerns came to a head May 7 when
Oglethorpe business dean explains why food prices are rising faster in Atlanta
Oglethorpe’s Stephen Craft explains why food prices are rising faster in Atlanta, citing supply chains, labor and transportation costs.
Health Costs Jumping 18% For Small And Medium-Sized Businesses
Healthcare costs are rising 18% for small-and mid-sized businesses as employers grapple with a surge in inflation and medical expenses, a Morgan Health report shows.
Health Costs Jumping 18% For Small And Medium-Sized Businesses
Healthcare costs are rising 18% for small-and mid-sized businesses as employers grapple with a surge in inflation and medical expenses, a Morgan Health report shows.
Live entertainment boom fuels growth for MSG and Las Vegas Sphere
‘The Big Money Show’ highlights the booming live entertainment industry as Madison Square Garden benefits from the Knicks’ Finals run and Sphere reports strong growth amid rising demand for in-person experiences.
Sharks As Climate Scientists?Here’s How They Improve Ocean Forecasts.
A new study shows that data from tagged sharks can improve ocean forecasts by up to 40 percent in some regions, offering a surprising new tool for understanding and predicting climate patterns.
Why ocean science is still one of the worst-funded scientific fields worldwide
For a planet that is 71% ocean, humanity spends a surprisingly small amount of time (and money) trying to understand it. Ocean science sits in a strange place in the research ecosystem. It underpin…
Iran conflict hasn’t slowed the economy, but rising inflation coaxes businesses to freeze hiring
The largest part of the economy grew faster in May even as businesses had to cope with the worst inflation in several years, but it came at a cost to jobseekers. Many companies have adopted temporary hiring freezes to offset their own rising costs.
Rethinking Political Change in Iran from Protest to War
One month before the United States and Israel began the current war against Iran on February 28, 2026, mass uprisings within the country resulted in the severest government crackdown in its modern history. Protests and repression were accompanied by calls for outside intervention. US President Donald Trump declared on January
2026 Memorial Tournament odds, picks: Surprising predictions by golf model that's nailed 17 majors
Mike McClure's model has simulated the Memorial Tournament 2026 10,000 times and revealed PGA picks this week
China services activity grows at fastest pace in three months, private PMI shows
China's services activity expanded at the fastest pace in three months in May, helped by stronger growth in new business and a rebound in overseas demand, though rising cost pressures weighed on firms, a private-sector survey showed on Wednesday.
As Corporate Profits Surge, America’s Small Businesses Get Left Behind
Between Trump tariffs, rising gas prices and labor supply shocks, Main Street businesses are seeing declining profits and slower hiring. Is uncertainty their new normal?
Straight Talk with Ascension Chamber President and CEO Donnie Miller
Ascension Parish is in the midst of a significant growth period, fueled by billions of dollars in industrial investment, rapid population gains and a diverse business landscape. As businesses navigate workforce shortages, infrastructure demands, rising operating costs and new opportunities tied to major projects, the Ascension Chamber of Commerce is working to help employers stay […]
How Science Works
The 2nd Weather and Climate Livestream is now underway. It is organized by a group of early-career researchers concerned about declining funding for the field and eager to demonstrate how weather and climate research makes a difference in our lives. Last year’s event was a great success, drawing terrific press coverage including a piece in the NY Times. This year features a strong lineup of talks aimed at a general audience — I highly recommend tuning in. Share I gave a talk yesterday about How Science Works in Three Steps. You can see the short presentation here (I’ve appended a transcript below): And please tune into the livestream here. It runs through tomorrow at 6 pm ET. Thanks for reading The Climate Brink! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Subscribe Cleaned up transcript: Thank you, and thanks to everyone tuning in. I want to talk about something I think a lot of people don’t really understand: how science actually works. Arguments over any scientific topic — climate change, vaccines, you name it — revolve around competing claims. For climate change, the claims are: Is the Earth warming? Are humans to blame? What will the impacts be? Over the last 150 years, the scientific community has developed a remarkably robust method for sorting out which claims are true and which aren’t. That method is what I want to walk through. So how does science generate knowledge? If you ask a high schooler, they’ll give you the version they learned in ninth grade: an individual scientist forms a hypothesis, runs an experiment, and draws a conclusion. That’s more or less what happens at the individual level, though in practice it’s more iterative — you design, test, and refine all at once, landing on a slightly different idea each time until you reach a conclusion about whatever hypothesis you’ve ended up with. But this isn’t science. It’s only step one. Any individual scientist can make mistakes — scientists are human. Maybe there’s a bug in the code, maybe there’s an error in the experiment. Just because someone ran an experiment and reached a conclusion doesn’t mean it’s right, and scientists don’t treat a single result as settled truth. Step two is peer review, the first layer of quality control. The scientist writes up what they did and submits it to a journal, which sends the paper to other experts in the field. Those experts judge whether the methods are sound, whether it properly references prior work, and whether the conclusions actually follow from the data. Ask any scientist and they’ll tell you peer review is miserable — the comments come back brutal, often harsh, and you have to revise and resubmit, sometimes multiple times, before an editor finally accepts the paper. Peer review catches an immense amount of bad science, but it can’t catch all of it. Reviewers get sloppy or overworked, they miss obvious mistakes, and they can’t catch hidden errors — a bug in the code, a misread instrument. So a peer-reviewed paper making it into a journal doesn’t mean the paper is right. Nobody treats a single paper as the final word. That’s where step three comes in: the crucible of science. Important results get retested by the broader community. If you publish something interesting, it gets dissected. Sometimes people try to reproduce your work directly but more often they test its implications. If someone claims X is true, and that implies that Y is also true, then scientists will go check Y. If a claim survives this gauntlet long enough, it becomes accepted. That’s how we generate knowledge. Let me give an example: the ozone hole. In 1985 — and I doubt many people watching were around then, but I remember it well — Joe Farman and his colleagues published observations from Antarctica showing that a huge chunk of ozone was disappearing every year. This was shocking because most atmospheric chemists had expected ozone loss to occur at mid-latitudes and high altitudes, not over the South Pole. When scientists see something they don’t understand, they rush to explain it, and several competing hypotheses quickly appeared in the peer-reviewed literature. One pointed to chlorine chemistry from chlorofluorocarbons. A second blamed nitrogen chemistry, possibly driven by solar proton events — meaning the sun was responsible. A third argued it wasn’t chemistry at all but dynamics: winds were carrying naturally low-ozone air from the lower atmosphere up into the stratosphere. Then the community went to work testing which theory could survive the crucible. Aircraft flew into the ozone hole and found no nitrogen, ruling out the nitrogen theory. Measurements showed the air in the polar vortex was descending, not rising — which would bring high-ozone air down, eliminating the dynamics theory. Meanwhile, those same flights measured enormous amounts of chlorine, strongly correlated with exactly the regions where ozone was being destroyed. That became known as the “smoking gun” paper, and it established that chlorine chemistry was the cause. Through this process, a consensus emerged. And it’s worth being clear that this consensus is organic. There’s no vote, no poll, no meeting where it gets decided. Scientists go to conferences, talk to one another, and independently arrived at the same answer. It’s the ultimate free market of ideas. After the consensus was established, the peer-reviewed literature doesn’t even mention the rival theories — it simply takes chlorine chemistry as given. That’s what a consensus looks like. It doesn’t mean every single scientist agrees, but it does mean there’s no longer any legitimate debate. So where can you see what scientists actually think? It’s all in the peer-reviewed literature, which contains the entire historical record of the argument: the discovery, the competing theories, the debate, the testing, and finally the community coalescing around one answer. But there’s a lot of room for misrepresentation. You can dig up an old paper claiming the ozone hole was caused by dynamics and wave it around as if there still was a debate about the cause of the ozone hole — without mentioning that the idea was disproven long ago and that even its own authors no longer believe it. There’s a bigger problem, though: the peer-reviewed literature is written in a language I call “nerd.” It’s extremely hard to read — honestly, some of it is hard for me to follow. It takes graduate students years to work through the literature in a single field, so we can’t expect policymakers or ordinary people to do it. This is where scientific assessments come in. The most famous is the IPCC — the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The job of an assessment is to read and summarize the peer-reviewed literature, synthesizing what’s settled, what’s been disproven, and what remains genuinely debated. To ensure the assessments accurately summarize the peer-reviewed literature, assessments are written by large teams, which are far less prone to bias than individuals and which dilute the influence of any one scientist with an axe to grind. The teams are deliberately assembled to avoid stacking the deck, and the reports themselves go through multiple rounds of peer review. That rigorous process is exactly why you can trust them and why people consider the IPCC to be the gold standard of what we know about the climate system. An assessment produced through a different process may well not be credible. You can even watch the consensus evolve across assessments. Take the attribution of warming. The 1990 IPCC report said the observed warming was broadly consistent with model predictions but also comparable to natural variability — in other words, we don’t know whether humans are responsible. By 1995, it concluded that the balance of evidence suggested a discernible human influence — a sentence only a committee could write, and one that barely commits to anything. By 2001, most of the warming over the previous 50 years was judged “likely” due to greenhouse gases; by 2007, “very likely”; by 2013, “extremely likely.” The 2023 report says essentially the same as 2013 — there’s not much stronger language available. So, to wrap up: science is our ultimate tool for deciphering the universe — the most successful method we’ve ever developed for determining what’s true and what isn’t. Our understanding is written into the peer-reviewed literature, so if you want to know what scientists think, that’s where to look. And for those of us who don’t speak nerd, scientific assessments are the Rosetta Stone — they translate nerd into English. Let me open the floor to questions. Thank you.
A Bustling Frontier Benefits All Roles in Red Dead Online
The rising tide lifts all boats this month in Red Dead Online. Whatever your specialty, all Roles benefit from boosted bonuses. Bounty Hunters tracking targets, Traders wheeling and dealing in furs and pelts, and Collectors combing the frontier for...