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The Death of Public Health
During the recent measles outbreak, the largest in more than 30 years, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. refused to clearly recommend the measles vaccine, saying instead that it was a “personal decision,” and that parents should “do their own research.” Similarly, during her recent confirmation hearing for United States Surgeon General, Casey Means was questioned by Senator William Cassidy (R, La). “You’re the nation’s doctor,” said Cassidy. “Would you encourage [a mother] to have her child vaccinated!” “I’m not an individual’s doctor,” Means said. “And every individual needs to talk to their doctor before putting a medication in their body.” In June 2025, Marty Makary, Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), said that COVID vaccines for pregnant women should be a “personal choice”, even though every other country in the world recommended the COVID vaccine during pregnancy due to a higher risk for severe disease. It doesn’t end there. On January 5, 2026, RFK Jr. reduced the number of routinely recommended vaccines from 18 to 10. For vaccines that protected against influenza, COVID, and rotavirus, parents were urged to speak with their doctors—to make an individual choice. (On March 16, 2026, in a ruling by a federal court in Boston, RFK Jr.’s revised schedule was invalidated.) What’s happening? Why are public health officials moving away from making recommendations for the public? The origin of this change might be rooted in the first two years of the COVID pandemic. In 2020, during the first year on the pandemic, we didn’t have anything to stop a virus that was killing hundreds of people a day and could be spread asymptomatically. We didn’t have antivirals until October, monoclonal antibodies until November, and vaccines until December. All we could do was restrict travel, close businesses, shutter schools, and mask, isolate, quarantine, test, and social distance. During the second year of the pandemic, when we had vaccines to prevent COVID, people couldn’t go anywhere without their vaccine cards. They couldn’t go to their favorite bar or restaurant or sporting event or place of worship without proof of vaccination. Some people were fired from their jobs for refusing to get vaccinated. For many, this was seen as massive government overreach and energized what has been called the “medical freedom movement.” Indeed, a headline in the New York Times declared, “How Health Freedom Became a Winning Rally Cry.” As expressed in the comments of RFK Jr., Casey Means, and Marty Makary, the medical freedom movement focuses on the individual not the community—the opposite of public health. In an article titled “Ethics and Social Value Judgments in Public Health,” ethicists from Yale University distinguished public health from medical freedom. “Public health policies,” they wrote, “are population oriented. Because individual health affects the health of others, public health measures regulate individual behavior to achieve population health goals. All raise questions about how individual autonomy and freedom should be balanced against public health interests…which respects individuals’ sovereignty over their bodies and actions as long as their actions do not harm others.” The medical freedom movement fails to recognize that it often limits the freedom of others. For example, a parent who is afraid to send a child to school where many of the students are unvaccinated. Or immune compromised children who depend on those around them to for protection. The question then becomes “Freedom for whom?” Is it your right, in the name of medical freedom, to catch and transmit a potentially fatal infection—and in so doing, take away the freedom of others? In Four Essays on Liberty, Isaiah Berlin sums it up best. “Liberty for the wolves,” he wrote, “is death to the lambs.” Thanks for reading Beyond the Noise! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Subscribe
Inside Todd Blanche’s audition for attorney general
Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche traveled to Florida on Monday where he met with a new prosecutor tapped to handle one of the most important cases to President Donald Trump — the investigation into former CIA director and Trump critic John Brennan.
Could AG Todd Rokita's 'powerful' endorsement sway these primary races?
The conservative attorney general is lending his endorsement to several candidates this cycle, including those going up against incumbents.
California says Amazon coerced companies into illegally raising prices
Attorney General Rob Bonta said Amazon asked vendors like Levi's to pressure Walmart into raising prices.
On the frontlines of speech science with Liberty Hamilton and Alex
Last summer, UC Berkeley hired not one but two computational neuroscientists, Liberty Hamilton and Alex Huth, who study how the brain processes language. The pair has a lot more in common. Both
Daytime napping patterns may reveal hidden health decline in older adults
New research reveals that as people age, naps may be an easily trackable warning sign of underlying conditions or declining health. A new study by investigators from Mass General Brigham and Rush University ...
AI in health care: Experts discuss the future of AI practices and policies
Jim VandeHei, CEO of Axios; Marc Boom, M.D., AHA board chair and president and CEO of Houston Methodist; Anne Klibanski, M.D., president and CEO of Mass General Brigham; Jonathan Perlin, M.D., president and CEO of Joint Commission; and Ladd Wiley, senior vice president of global corporate affairs, public policy and advocacy for Epic, all participated in the panel discussion “AI in Health Care: Navigating Policy, Regulation, and the Road Ahead."
Recent HHS Leadership Changes Impacting Public Health
Get a rundown of recent HHS leadership changes that impact public health, including to CDC director, ACIP, and the U.S. Surgeon General.
Eagles trade rumor could lead to deal with Vikings
The Philadelphia Eagles are reportedly looking to be active in the trade market during the 2026 NFL Draft, and the Minnesota Vikings might be in their crosshairs. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Eagles general manager Howie Roseman is plotting to…
High Runner’s High: Marijuana and running in joint use across North Ashland
Running and cannabis use have several similarities. They both challenge a person’s lung capacity, they both generally result in an increased appetite, and they can both be enjoyed indoors or outside. Despite the overlap, the idea to participate in both simultaneously as a community is a relatively new concept. Chicago natives Anakaren Ramirez and Carlos...
Michigan Democrats pick Savit over McDonald for attorney general nominee
Washtenaw County Prosecutor Eli Savit defeated Oakland County Prosecutor Karen McDonald at a Michigan Democratic Party state convention on Sunday.
Michigan attorney general rejects Trump administration ballot request amid broader push to challenge elections
Michigan’s attorney general is rejecting an effort by the US Justice Department to obtain ballots and other voting materials from the Detroit area, a target of the Trump administration’s efforts to probe elections in states that the president falsely claims he won in 2020.
Five takeaways from Sharks GM Mike Grier's end-of-season exit interview
Sheng Peng shares his takeaways from San Jose Sharks general manager Mike Grier's end-of-season interview.
Letter: Why my business will be closed May 1 for the general strike
May 1, 2026 will mark 140 years since tens of thousands of people gathered in Chicago to fight for workers’ rights, including the eight-hour workday. May
Trump's Department of Justice demands Wayne County's 2024 ballots
A assistant attorney general sent a letter to Wayne County Clerk Cathy Garrett demanding the county turn over its 2024 paper ballots.
New Jersey Devils Hit Home Run With Sunny Mehta Hire
The New Jersey Devils have entered the “Mehtaverse” after hiring Sunny Mehta as the team’s new general manager. The former Florida Panthers assistant GM now gets his first crack as the head man in charge. It’s also a homecoming for Mehta, who grew up in Wycoff, NJ, and was the team’s head of analytics […] The post New Jersey Devils Hit Home Run With Sunny Mehta Hire appeared first on The Lead.
Previewing the 2026 NC legislative session
ABC11's Sean Coffey and N&O politics reporter Luciana Perez Uribe Guinassi talk about what to look for in the upcoming session of the North Carolina General Assembly.
Politics Friday: Keeping up with the legal jousting between state, federal governments
Coming up Friday at noon, a conversation with Attorney General Keith Ellison. Later, a look at the debate over data centers.
$311 Million Approved for Construction of New UT Health Sciences College of Medicine Building
The Tennessee General Assembly Thursday approved the funding of $311 million recommended by Governor Bill Lee for the construction of a new $350 million College of Medicine Interdisciplinary Building at the University of Tennessee Health Sciences. The 275,000- to 300,000-square-foot building will be located on the Memphis campus on Madison Avenue, between the College of… Read More
$311 Million Approved for Construction of New UT Health Sciences College of Medicine Building
The Tennessee General Assembly Thursday approved the funding of $311 million recommended by Governor Bill Lee for the construction of a new $350 million College of Medicine Interdisciplinary Building at the University of Tennessee Health Sciences.
Pre-Snap Reads 4/17: Tory Horton’s health will influence Seahawks’ success
The pass catchers in general are prime for a group breakout in 2026.
In Texas Senate Race, Talarico Is Out-Raising His G.O.P. Opponents
James Talarico, the Democratic nominee, has been amassing campaign cash as Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton still battle each other.
Venture capitalist and former marine Larry Lawrence, GS ’69, Business ’71, named School of General Studies 2026 Class Day speaker
Larry Lawrence, GS ’69, Business ’71, venture capitalist, chair emeritus of the School of General Studies’ board of visitors, will serve as the General Studies Class Day speaker for the class of 2026, General Studies Dean Lisa Rosen-Metsch, GS/JTS ’90, announced in a Thursday email to the school’s students.
Sunny Mehta named new General Manager of Devils
The New Jersey Devils have announced the hiring of Sunny Mehta as the sixth general manager in franchise history.
Devils hire ex-Panthers executive Sunny Mehta as general manager
The New Jersey Devils have hired Sunny Mehta as their general manager, bringing back their former director of analytics to oversee their hockey operations department. Owner David Blitzer announced the hire Thursday night, less than 48 hours after the team’s regular season ended without a playoff appearance. Mehta was an assistant when the Florida Panthers won the Stanley Cup back to back each of the past two years.
Erica Schwartz, former deputy surgeon general, nominated to be next CDC director by Trump
The Atlanta-based CDC, which is charged with protecting Americans from preventable health threats, has been in turmoil since Trump returned to office more than a year ago, with a succession of mostly temporary leaders.
2026 End of Session Wrap-Up: Business Affairs
The segments below provide a brief overview of MACo’s work on business affairs policy in the 2026 General Assembly session. Business regulation and
How Dangerous Is Anthropic’s New AI Model? Its Chief Science Officer Explains.
Just how fast is the future coming at us, and how worried should we be? Last week, Anthropic announced Claude Mythos, the latest in what has become the leading family of AI models. In a very short time, AI models from Anthropic and other companies have become shockingly powerful at coding. But Mythos stands out because it is not just able to write code that can hack into critical systems, like those that run financial companies, but also to analyze systems and find and string together vulnerabilities in them, allowing Mythos to evade even sophisticated defenses. Anthropic chose to release Mythos to only about 40 leading corporations, so they could analyze the model’s capabilities and prepare countermeasures, in an effort it calls Project Glasswing. The release of Mythos—and the prospect of similarly powerful AIs to follow—has caused tremors at the top levels of Washington and corporate America. Jared Kaplan, co-founder and chief science officer at Anthropic, is at the center of this breakthrough. We sat down with Kaplan so he could walk us through just how powerful Mythos is, what the implications are for issues like our personal privacy, and what comes next. This conversation has been edited for length and clarity. Sean Fischer: For the layman, how is Claude Mythos different—more powerful, more dangerous—from previous models released by Anthropic? Jared Kaplan: I think most people have experienced the fact that our computers get faster and faster over time and over many decades. There’s this very smooth trend where every 18 months, maybe, computer processing power doubles. I think AI is on a trend in which it’s improving maybe 10 times faster than that. A lot of the earliest work that I did in AI was around identifying this scaling trend in AI. Claude Mythos is the latest model from Anthropic, but it’s not different because it’s qualitatively different. It’s really just kind of the culmination of the trend of AI models getting smarter and smarter at all kinds of general capabilities, from reasoning to software engineering to scientific research to knowledge work. For us, it was the first model to demonstrate very elite-level cybersecurity capabilities. It wasn’t because we trained Claude Mythos to focus on cybersecurity, but it was because, as a byproduct of its general intelligence and its general ability with software, it’s particularly good at identifying vulnerabilities in software and how to exploit them.
Blackhawks extend general manager Kyle Davidson's contract
The Chicago Blackhawks extended general manager Kyle Davidson's contract Wednesday without providing the length of the deal. “We are committing to Kyle to continue the plan he has put in place,” chairman and owner Danny Wirtz said before the team's season-ending game against San Jose. The Blackhawks are locked into 31st place in the 32-team NHL and haven’t made the Stanley Cup playoffs since the expanded COVID playoffs of 2020.
'Show me the money'
What happens when a former senator, a prior governor, a previous representative, and a political advocate talk about corporate money in politics? The exact scenario played out at the MSU-hosted discussion titled “Money, Transparent Elections and the Montana Experience,” at the end of last week. Audience members experienced a bipartisan glimpse into corporate influence, how it is built, spent on campaigns and challenged by voters. A candid conversation emerged between guest speakers former Montana U.S. Senator Jon Tester, former Attorney General and Governor Marc Racicot, previous state senator and representative Jeff Mangan, and political advocate Michel Beckel. The conversation between the four guests circled back to Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, a landmark 2010 Supreme Court ruling allowing corporations, unions, and associations to spend unlimited amounts of money influencing elections. The decision concluded independent political spending is a form of free speech protected by the First Amendment, directly leading to the rise of massive political action committees and ‘dark money’ in U.S. elections spending. Tester was the first to address the ‘black elephant’ in the room. Responses to moderator questions are edited for clarity and brevity. “We are seeing unbelievable sums of money being put out trying to influence people on how to vote,” Tester said. “Oftentimes the truth goes out the window before the campaigning even starts.”
Madison County Judge Mark Patey permanently suspended due to 'mental health issues'
Madison County's General Sessions Court Judge has been permanently suspended by the Board of Judicial Conduct as of Wednesday.
Live Nation says ‘game is not over’ after jury finds company liable for ticketing monopoly
A federal jury in New York found Live Nation and Ticketmaster liable for monopolistic practices, in what attorneys general called a landmark victory.
With Iran War on Pause, Political Battle Resumes Over Israeli Democracy
A court fight over Itamar Ben-Gvir, an extremist who oversees the police, pits the attorney general against Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing government.
AG Keith Ellison seeks public comment on Sutter Health’s acquisition of Allina Health
Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison is asking for the community to weigh in on a proposed acquisition of Allina Health by Sutter Health.
Former deputy surgeon general is recommended for CDC director, sources say
The agency has had a tumultuous run during Trump's second term and only had a permanent director for one month last summer.
Americans stand out internationally for their pessimism about the nation’s political system
People in higher-income countries are generally less likely to say their nation’s political system needs major changes or complete reform. Americans are an exception.
Political science junior Maddie Hanes elected ASMSU President
The General Assembly of ASMSU elected Maddie Hanes as the President of the 63rd session, who will serve during the 2026-2027 school year in addition to Anna Burk, who will be the re-elected Vice President of Finance and Operations.
UK fund major L&G aims to double Asia business, CEO says
Britain's biggest asset manager Legal & General aims to double its assets under management in Asia to around $500 billion amid its push to grow its international business, CEO Antonio Simoes told Reuters on Monday.
Comer, Democrats spar over Bondi testimony schedule
Rep. James Comer and his Democratic counterpart on the House Oversight Committee are sparring over a subpoena of former Attorney General Pam Bondi.
“There’s a general acceptance” – Sky Sports reporter shares update on Chelsea’s summer plans
Chelsea are expected to be busy in the summer transfer window with a number of positions needing to be filled according to Sky Sports reporter Kaveh Solhekol.DOWNLOAD THE OFFICIAL CHELSEA NEWS APP FOR...
White House favors Erica Schwartz, former deputy surgeon general, to lead CDC
Schwartz would be Trump’s third nominee to lead the CDC. She left government in 2021, after the Biden administration passed her over for acting U.S. surgeon general.
US dispatch: UN women’s conference day 3—mixed progress for women’s political…
Note: This story is part of a series of coverage from the first week of the 2026 UN Women’s Commission on the Status of Women (CSW70). Read Day 1 and Day 2. The third day of the 70th session of the Co...
Todd Blanche says Americans should be 'happy' Trump is deeply involved in DOJ
The acting attorney general said in an interview with NBC News that he's not concerned when Trump "encourages or directs or expects the Department of Justice to do its job."
Texas AG launches probe into Lululemon's potential use of certain chemicals
The investigation, announced on the attorney general's website Monday, concerns whether Lululemon’s athletic apparel contains PFAS.
2026 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects: Matt’s Pref List
The last instalment in the Top 40 series on this off-day is my list of prospects I was somewhat higher on and would have either had on or in the mix for the back of my list alone. As Tom noted on his list, these are deep(er) sleepers, generally low probability, but usually they’re be […]
Apple Seeds Second iOS 26.5 and iPadOS 26.5 Betas to Developers
Apple today seeded the second betas of upcoming iOS 26.5 and iPadOS 26.5 updates to developers for testing purposes, with the software coming two weeks after Apple released updated first betas. Registered developers can download the betas from the Settings app on the iPhone or iPad by going to the General section and selecting Software Update. iOS 26.5 and iPadOS 26.5 do not include new Siri capabilities, suggesting any Siri updates are being held until iOS 27.
Lessons from the OIG: Common Billing Errors Texas Home Health Providers Need to Know | Insights
The Texas Health and Human Services Office of Inspector General (HHSC-OIG) quarterly report highlights common billing errors and compliance issues in home healthcare settings.
Light-hitting Mariners taking advantage of Astros' shaky pitching
Every year, generally come playoff time, the question is asked: Does good pitching beat good hitting?
Text2Win Tickets To The Greensboro Science Center
Text "EXPLORE" to 31403 for your chance to win a 4-pack of general admission tickets to the Greensboro Science Center! Two lucky winners will be chosen. Contest ends April 26th, 2026 at 10 AM.
Together for health and standing with science for our planet and its people
Himalayan spikenard (Nardostachys jatamansi) © Morten Ross / iNaturalist Statement by CITES Secretary-General Ivonne Higuero on the occasion of World Health Day 2026CITES is a multilateral
Together for health and standing with science for our planet and its people
Himalayan spikenard (Nardostachys jatamansi) © Morten Ross / iNaturalist Statement by CITES Secretary-General Ivonne Higuero on the occasion of World Health Day 2026CITES is a multilateral
Polls close in high-stakes Hungarian election as Magyar seeks to oust Orbán
Polls closed with a record-high turnout in Hungary’s crucial general election, with a freshly released survey suggesting Péter Magyar’s insurgent opposition is set to beat...
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
A key criminal case could soon get tossed because of acting Attorney General Todd Blanche’s comments
As Todd Blanche takes the reins at the Justice Department, a federal judge is set to decide whether controversial remarks made last year by the now-acting attorney general should lead to the unravelling of one of the Trump administration’s marquee criminal cases.
Manipulating Science, Manipulating Us
Four decades ago, I and Gerald Markowitz published an article in the American Journal of Public Health that attracted a fair amount of attention. The article was about the history of the introduction of tetraethyl lead into gasoline in the 1920s. The article detailed the controversy over putting lead, even then a known industrial poison and neurotoxin, into the gasoline that was powering the new automobile, particularly those that were produced by the General Motors Company.
Exploring the cognitive science behind NFL Draft decision-making behaviors
The human behavior and decision-making aspects behind a person’s dating life doesn’t stray too differently from the choices coaches and general managers make when selecting a player in the NFL Draft. “You date someone and you make a choice to commit to this person, or keep looking,” said Cleotilde Gonzalez,
Attend science fiction conventions
Last weekend, I was at a local science fiction convention. Next week, will I have to watch another one die? Science fiction conventions —sometimes referred to as SFF cons, where the last F stands for fantasy — are what is known as “general interest” conventions. These are very different from “media” conventions, such as the...
NATO chief signals allies may act on Hormuz, warns of ‘unhealthy codependence’ on US
Rutte signals a possible coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz after meeting Trump, but the White House says NATO was tested and already failed.
Acting AG Todd Blanche sends series of memos to staff marking his first official day
Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche sent a series of memos to Justice Department staffers Thursday marking his first official day running the agency.
3L Rachel Sadler Charts Path in Brain Health, Technology, and Policy Through UC Law SF’s Health Law Concentration - UC Law San Francisco (Formerly UC Hastings)
3L Rachel Sadler studies health law and policy at UC Law SF while researching the legal implications of neurotechnology and other emerging tools that may affect human cognition. 3L student Rachel Sadler shares how UC Law SF’s Health Law Concentration prepared her for a career focused on the intersection of brain health, government policy, and technology. Gained a detailed understanding of how U.S. health care is regulated and where policy reform is needed through coursework and research. Interned with state and federal agencies that regulate health care services and worked with a major health care provider’s bioethics department. Plans to pursue a career focused on protecting cognitive liberty and mental privacy as new technologies reshape healthcare. 3L Rachel Sadler: The Health Law Concentration has given me fluency in one of the most complex regulated industries and the tools to become an effective advocate for better health policy. Before coming to law school, I spent a decade teaching and working with teachers and administrators on high school programming for multilingual learners. Healthcare kept emerging as the most powerful driver of student outcomes. I wanted to understand how to make effective policy change in this area and how to use existing law to defend people’s health rights in California. Through the concentration’s coursework, I gained a sophisticated understanding of how U.S. healthcare is regulated. I also learned where the pressure points for reform exist. The courses gave me space to develop what became my central research interest: how law and policy can be built to protect human cognition and healthy brain development, particularly regarding new technologies such as generative AI and neurotechnology. The health law faculty were instrumental in that process, genuinely invested in helping me and other students define and pursue our own intellectual vision. During law school, I interned at the General Counsel’s Office for Region IX of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. I also externed at the California Department of Justice’s Health, Education and Welfare Division. Additionally, I externed at Kaiser Permanente Northern California’s Bioethics Department. Alongside those placements, I conducted extensive independent research on mental privacy and emerging neurotechnology, working closely with Professors Emily Murphy and George Horvath. That research became the throughline of my law school experience and the foundation of my current policy focus. I must also credit Nicole Ozer of the Center for Constitutional Democracy (CCD), whose deep knowledge of California privacy law and the public-interest privacy landscape deeply informed my work. I currently serve a research assistant with the CCD, where I spearhead the development of K-12 educational resources in partnership with law faculty and students. I’ve found UC Law SF to be an ideal place for second-career, nontraditional students. There is a tremendous diversity of life and career experience here, and I felt fully welcomed into the community, despite returning as a student at a different stage of life. I came to law school wanting to promote equity in California’s healthcare system. I am leaving with a sharper and more specific ambition: to build a policy career focused on protecting cognitive liberty and mental privacy from technological intrusion. This is both an urgent and underserved area of law, and I want to be part of defining this landscape going forward. Whether as a practicing attorney or a policy advisor, I plan to work on these issues after law school. I strongly recommend UC Law SF and the Health Law Concentration. When I arrived in law school, I worried the concentration would be narrow and that my non-clinical background would be a disadvantage. The opposite was true. The health law faculty thinks about health expansively, encompassing social determinants of health, structural inequity, and emerging technologies alongside the regulatory mechanics of the industry. The faculty are accessible, intellectually generous, and genuinely invested in students’ development. I found my research vision here, and I deeply appreciate the concentration’s role in this. The Evidence of Success series highlights UC Law SF students as they share how the College’s opportunities equip them with the experience, skills, and confidence to excel in the legal profession.
Iowa convenience store chain reaches national business milestone
An Iowa-based company is being added to a prestigious list this morning. Casey’s General Stores is now on the S&P 500 stock index. The Ankeny-based convenience store chain is only the second Iowa company on the list, along with Principal Financial Group in Des Moines. The S&P 500 encompasses both the New York Stock Exchange […]
Seahawks betting on Sam Darnold to take leap next season
Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider believes that quarterback Sam Darnold could take a big leap come the 2026 season.
Bondi won't appear for House deposition next week in the Epstein investigation
A spokeswoman for the House Oversight Committee says that the department has signaled that Bondi won’t appear on April 14 “since she is no longer attorney general and was subpoenaed in her capacity as attorney general.”
I On Politics
DUTCH KILLS CIVIC ASSN MEETING APRIL 9: The next general meeting of the Dutch Kills Civic Association will be held on Thursday, April 9, at 7:00 pm at the Growing Up Green school, 39-27 28th Street. Joseph Ottomanelli from the NYC Sanitation Dept will be the guest speaker discussing the bin mandate going into effect
Trump is expected to meet NATO leader Rutte as he muses about pulling out of the military alliance
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte is expected to meet with President Donald Trump to try to smooth over the president’s anger with the military alliance over the Iran war
'Ketamine Queen' to be sentenced for selling Matthew Perry the drugs that killed him
a e n prisons indictments general-news criminal-punishment courts u-s-news entertainment | Newsradio 1140 WRVA
'Ketamine Queen' to be sentenced for selling Matthew Perry the drugs that killed him
a e n prisons indictments general-news criminal-punishment courts u-s-news entertainment | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
'Ketamine Queen' to be sentenced for selling Matthew Perry the drugs that killed him
a e n prisons indictments general-news criminal-punishment courts u-s-news entertainment | KYW Newsradio
Baton Rouge General's Health Tip of the Week: What to know about new cholesterol guidelines
Sponsored by Baton Rouge General Heart health is getting a head start—and the new guidelines say your 30s are the time to begin. Updated recommendations call for annual cholesterol screenings starting at age 30, lower LDL (“bad” cholesterol) targets (under 100, or 70 if you’re higher risk), and additional tests like lipoprotein(a) at least once. […]
Volunteers turn a fan's recordings of 10,000 concerts into an online treasure trove
f l a e n music internet entertainment technology oddities lifestyle u-s-news general-news | KYW Newsradio
Volunteers turn a fan's recordings of 10,000 concerts into an online treasure trove
f l a e n music internet entertainment technology oddities lifestyle u-s-news general-news | WBEN
Volunteers turn a fan's recordings of 10,000 concerts into an online treasure trove
f l a e n music internet entertainment technology oddities lifestyle u-s-news general-news | WBBM Newsradio 780 AM & 105.9 FM
Blanche argues Trump can influence DOJ investigations, including those involving political foes
Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said President Donald Trump has a "right" to influence federal investigations, including those looking into the president's political enemies.
Grammy-winning singer-songwriter Ray Stevens recovering after breaking neck
i a e n celebrity country-music music grammy-awards entertainment u-s-news general-news | Talk Radio 1210 WPHT
Together for health and standing with science for our planet and its people
Himalayan spikenard (Nardostachys jatamansi) © Morten Ross / iNaturalist Statement by CITES Secretary-General Ivonne Higuero on the occasion of World Health Day 2026CITES is a multilateral
Former Migos rapper Offset is stable after being shot outside a Florida casino, spokesperson says
a e n law-enforcement celebrity crime music hip-hop-and-rap shootings entertainment u-s-news general-news | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
Former Migos rapper Offset is stable after being shot outside a Florida casino, spokesperson says
a e n law-enforcement celebrity crime music hip-hop-and-rap shootings entertainment u-s-news general-news | Talk Radio 1210 WPHT
Former Migos rapper Offset is stable after being shot outside a Florida casino, spokesperson says
a e n law-enforcement celebrity crime music hip-hop-and-rap shootings entertainment u-s-news general-news | 830 WCCO
New York Giants’ star defender Dexter Lawrence salary demands revealed
The NFL is not only preparing for the 2026 NFL Draft—it has already begun voluntary workouts. Teams are now seeing players report for workouts, recovery plans, and general wellness checks. One notable name is absent from the New York Giants’…
'Mormon Wives' star Taylor Frankie Paul can't have unsupervised visits with toddler son, court rules
f a e n general-news courts religion business u-s-news entertainment | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
'Mormon Wives' star Taylor Frankie Paul can't have unsupervised visits with toddler son, court rules
f a e n general-news courts religion business u-s-news entertainment | 100.1 FM and AM 1020 KDKA
Oscars set dates for 99th and 100th broadcast, before move to YouTube
a e n movies academy-awards entertainment u-s-news general-news | KNSS Radio
Oscars set dates for 99th and 100th broadcast, before move to YouTube
a e n movies academy-awards entertainment u-s-news general-news | KNX News 97.1 FM
Former Migos rapper Offset is stable after being shot outside a Florida casino, spokesperson says
a e n law-enforcement celebrity crime music hip-hop-and-rap shootings entertainment u-s-news general-news | WWL
Utah court rules Taylor Frankie Paul can't have unsupervised visits with 2-year-old son
f a e n general-news courts religion business u-s-news entertainment | 104.1 FM KMOX
Wireless Festival canceled after UK bars rapper Ye over antisemitic remarks
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Acting AG says ‘Nobody has any idea why’ Pam Bondi was fired except for Trump
During his first news conference Tuesday, acting Attorney General Todd Blanche showcased his loyalty to President Donald Trump while declining to answer specific questions about the war with Iran, why Attorney General Pam Bondi was fired or other investigations into the president’s enemies.
Dallas State Senator Nathan Johnson talks about his run for Texas Attorney General
Texas Senator Nathan Johnson, D – Dallas, is running against former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski in the May 26th primary runoff election after neither candidate received fifty percent of the vote. The winner will take on whoever wins the Republican nominee in November; either Texas State Senator Mayes Middleton, R – Galveston, or Congressman Chip Roy, R – Austin.
Former Migos rapper Offset is stable after being shot outside a Florida casino, spokesperson says
a e n law-enforcement celebrity crime music hip-hop-and-rap shootings entertainment u-s-news general-news | WBEN
Clicks and clacks, rhythms and beats: The tap shoe
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Clicks and clacks, rhythms and beats: The tap shoe
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Hulu's 'Handmaid's Tale' spinoff 'The Testaments' is about girlhood in Gilead
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Hulu's 'Handmaid's Tale' spinoff 'The Testaments' is about girlhood in Gilead
a e teens children-s-entertainment television media-and-entertainment-industry u-s-news general-news entertainment | WBBM Newsradio 780 AM & 105.9 FM
Wisconsin Supreme Court Election 2026 Live Results
See live results from the 2026 Wisconsin State Supreme Court election as votes are counted.
Former Migos rapper Offset is stable after being shot outside a Florida casino, spokesperson says
a e n law-enforcement crime celebrity music hip-hop-and-rap shootings entertainment u-s-news general-news | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
Wireless Festival canceled after UK bars rapper Ye over antisemitic remarks
i e politics antisemitism hip-hop-and-rap entertainment fairs-and-festivals world-news general-news | 104.1 FM KMOX
Gov. DeSantis signs measure shifting Naples Airport Authority control to voters
All 5 seats will appear on the ballot beginning with the 2026 General Election.
Former Migos rapper Offset is stable after being shot outside a Florida casino, spokesperson says
a e n grammy-awards general-news music hip-hop-and-rap entertainment shootings u-s-news | Newsradio 1140 WRVA