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Large Hadron Collider detects strange particle behavior that could rewrite physics
Scientists working at CERN’s Large Hadron Collider may be seeing the strongest hints yet of physics beyond the Standard Model — the decades-old theory that explains the fundamental particles and forces of the universe. By studying incredibly rare particle transformations called “penguin decays,” researchers found behavior that doesn’t fully match theoretical predictions, raising the possibility that unknown particles or forces are influencing the results.
'A miserable campaign - but Mane looks a player'
Now the curtain has come down on the 2025-26 Premier League campaign, here is my end-of-season review - with a look back to what I predicted in August. Wolves were another side effectively going out of the Premier League from the early weeks of the season. Vitor Pereira was sacked after failing to win any of the first 10 league games and, while successor Rob Edwards occasionally hinted at better things to come and some optimism next season, this was a miserable campaign.
'As big a shambles as it is possible to imagine'
Now the curtain has come down on the 2025-26 Premier League campaign, here is my end-of-season review - with a look back to what I predicted in August. The job proved too much for Thomas Frank, who found the expectations and dysfunction of Tottenham a sharp contrast to the stability of Brentford. Just when you thought it could not get worse, matters hit a new low with the bizarre appointment of Igor Tudor, an arrival that posed serious questions of CEO Vinai Venkatesham and sporting director Johan Lange.
'A very underwhelming campaign'
Now the curtain has come down on the 2025-26 Premier League campaign, here is my end-of-season review - with a look back to what I predicted in August. Chelsea's poor season contained one final insult when they were beaten at Sunderland on the final day, meaning they have no European football under new manager Xabi Alonso next season. Liam Rosenior lasted only three months amid acrimony - a head coach out of his depth - before Calum McFarlane stepped in to take Chelsea to the FA Cup final, which they lost to Manchester City.
Leo International Precision Health AG builds a Synchronised, End-to-End Precision Healthcare Engine Across the Entire Patient Journey
LIPH AG introduces a synchronised “Precision Health Engine” designed to transform healthcare from reactive treatment into predictive, personalised and continuous care. Planegg / Martinsried, Germany, May 26, 2026 – Leo International Precision Health AG (“LIPH AG” or the “Company”, ticker symbol: LEOW), a holding company building a global AI-driven healthcare ecosystem and listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, continues to expand its precision health platform integrating Healthcare Services, Me
NFL Player News
Find all the latest fantasy football news, reports, transactions, videos, predictions, and more right here on NBC Sports - Rotoworld.
2026 Charles Schwab Challenge odds, picks: Surprising predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors
Mike McClure's model has simulated the Charles Schwab Challenge 2026 10,000 times and revealed PGA best bets
Way-too-early Steelers award predictions for 2026
Way too early predictions for the Steelers’ award winners.
Sorry, Apple: Samsung’s Fainting Detection Is a Game Changer
I might just have to consign my Apple Watch to the great tech junkyard in the sky.
The Witcher 3 is a good game, but that doesn't mean you have to like it
Consensus and genre labels aren't reliable predictors of what you'll enjoy.
'Decent game' but 'no obvious striker'
We asked for your views on Fulham's victory over Newcastle on the final day of the season which could also have been Marco Silva's last game in charge of the club. Here are some of your comments: Kevin: Silva has been a perfect fit for Fulham, but I'm in two minds about him staying. Our football has become a bit predictable and side-to-side with no obvious striker.
Premier League predictions: How accurate were BBC Sport pundits?
Last summer, 33 BBC pundits - plus AI and Opta's 'supercomputer' were asked to pick which teams would finish in the Premier League's top four, and in which order. How did they get on?
Is this a good time for the CSIRO to be sacking climate scientists?
The next El Niño is predicted to be bigger than ever with devastating global impacts
Mapping the avoid-ome: a systematic open-science approach to predictive ADMET
Nature Communications - Mapping the avoid-ome: a systematic open-science approach to predictive ADMET
Analysis: Bedlam at Stadium of Light
In truth, the party had been ongoing hours before kick-off but it was bedlam by the end of the match, as fans held heads in hands in disbelief at their remarkable achievement. It is only four years since the Black Cats were in League One, with Luke O'Nien and Trai Hume having been with them throughout the journey and combining here for the first goal. Having only gone up via the Championship play-offs, it is little surprise many predicted Sunderland would struggle.
2026 Indianapolis 500 odds, predictions, time, Indy 500 starting grid: Model gives surprising picks
Best bets for the Indianapolis 500 on Sunday from Indianapolis Motor Speedway with Alex Palou on the pole
5 science-backed ways parents can build a child’s confidence
Confidence is not something children magically “have” or “do not have.” It is built in small, repeatable moments: when a child is heard without being dismissed, encouraged without being overpraised, and guided without being controlled. Research-backed parenting practices point to a simple truth: children tend to feel more secure, capable, and resilient when home is predictable, warm, and emotionally steady. They also grow stronger when adults make room for effort, autonomy, movement, sleep, and good nutrition, because these basics shape learning, mood, and self-regulation. Here are five science-backed ways parents can help build lasting confidence in children.
Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton – Predicted lineup and team news
Tottenham Hotspur welcome Everton to North London, facing an incredibly tense Premier League season finale.Roberto De Zerbi’s team are fighting to avoid the club’s first relegation since 1977. Spu...
2026 NBA Eastern Conference Finals odds, predictions: Knicks vs. Cavaliers Game 3 picks by expert who's 135-95
SportsLine's Mike Barner has revealed his New York Knicks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers best bets for Game 3 of the ECF
NBA player prop picks, odds: Three best 2026 NBA Playoffs prop bets for Knicks vs. Cavaliers, Game 3
SportsLine's model and team of experts have revealed top NBA props picks and NBA predictions for the NBA Playoffs on Saturday
Making our initial projections on the Jaguars 53-man roster
The Jaguars are in the thick of their offseason program, and it’s time for our pre-OTAs 53-man roster projection. News4JAX sports reporters Jamal St. Cyr and Justin Barney make their first roster predictions of the year.
2026 Indianapolis 500 odds, predictions, time, date, Indy 500 starting grid: Model gives surprising picks
Best bets for the Indianapolis 500 on Sunday from Indianapolis Motor Speedway with Alex Palou on the pole
Analyst makes bold prediction regarding Baker Mayfield in 2026
Bleacher Report believes Baker Mayfield could be the key to a deep Buccaneers playoff run in 2026.
Thunder vs. Spurs odds, prediction: 2026 NBA Western Conference finals picks, Game 3 best bets by proven model
SportsLine's proven model has revealed its OKC Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs NBA playoff best bets for Game 3 of the WCF
Mysterious Earthquakes Strike Like Clockwork – We May Finally Know Why
The secrets of predictable faults.
Thunder vs. Spurs odds, prediction: 2026 NBA Western Conference finals picks, Game 3 best bets by proven model
SportsLine's proven model has revealed its OKC Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs NBA playoff best bets for Game 3 of the WCF
Jiben Roy: When science can’t predict the unthinkable
It’s a tricky point, and science does not have an answer. Tagore, a 1913 Nobel laureate in literature, lost seven family members, including his wife and three of his five children, within a short period of time.
AI & Science: What Is the Future of Discovery?
Continued progress in artificial intelligence, its expanding usefulness in science, and its contributions to landmark advances suggest that we may have entered a new era of AI for science.The breakthroughs so far—such as predicting the structure of practically every known protein, with profound implications for our understanding of biology, health, and the treatment of disease—are notable not only for what was achieved but also how it was achieved and what that suggests for scientific progress. This special double issue of Dædalus poses the question: What is the future of scientific discovery in this new age of AI? Thirty-three scientists responded. Bringing perspectives from life sciences and medicine, cognitive science and neuroscience, the physical and earth sciences, chemistry and materials science, computer science, mathematics and the social sciences—they draw on their work at the frontier of AI and science. The authors write with an eye to the future, not just the present. They explore what is being achieved and what possibilities lie ahead; examine AI’s limitations and efforts to move forward; and investigate the larger implications of AI-assisted science—on how science is done, the role of the scientist, and the scientific method, as well as the challenges and complexities involved.The authors together exemplify a long-standing bidirectional relationship: AI advancing science, while science advances AI. Where that relationship will take us—a golden age of discovery? New scientist-machine collaborations? Autonomous labs? Discoveries without human understanding?—is a future we are only beginning to imagine, and one we must also shape if the beneficial possibilities are to be realized.Image: UMAP sculptures visualizing three Dædalus volumes on artificial intelligence. © 2026 by Refik Anadol.
Sen Blackburn says sports betting hearing likely first of ‘several’ as Congress weighs federal action
Sen. Blackburn says Congress must determine where federal regulation is needed as sports betting and prediction markets rapidly expand in the U.S.
What to watch for in WPIAL sports on May 21, 2026: Final 4 teams square off in unpredictable 5A baseball bracket
When it comes to a playoff bracket, the term chalk indicates a tournament has gone as planned.
Senate panel hears testimony on online sports betting, prediction markets
Senate lawmakers grilled sports betting industry officials during a hearing focused on recent cheating scandals, companies' marketing tactics and regulatory battles.
How AI can help soil scientists secure a vital global resource
AI tools can accelerate soil science by speeding up early-stage work, improving predictions to support decisions on land-use, carbon, and climate adaptation, handling complex data, and freeing scientists to focus on questions that require expert judgment.
Congress increases scrutiny into sports betting, prediction markets
Congress is intensifying its scrutiny of sports gambling and prediction markets amid a wave of scandals in professional and collegiate sports that have raised c
Industry Experts Testify on Rise of Sports Betting & Prediction Markets
A Senate Commerce subcommittee holds a hearing on the expansion of sports betting and prediction markets.
2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds, picks: Surprising predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors
Mike McClure's model has simulated the CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2026 10,000 times and revealed PGA best bets
2026 Chicago Bears Schedule: FOX Sports Win-Loss predictions & season assement
Here is a full assessment of the Bears' full regular-season slate, and how FOX Sports thinks they'll do in 2026.
Congrats, new grads! Welcome to job market hell.
New computer science grads are trying to start their careers at a time when many experts predict that AI will make their skills obsolete.
Prediction markets face a ban in one state, but the fight's not over
The CFTC is suing Minnesota and Gov. Tim Walz over a ban on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, set to take effect in August.
Building AI models that understand chemical principles
MIT Associate Professor Connor Coley develops and deploys computational models to design new chemical compounds and predict reaction pathways that could generate those compounds.
Steelers Predicted to Cut Ties With Recently Drafted QB For Aaron Rodgers Reason
The Pittsburgh Steelers find themselves in some quarterback controversy, despite re-signing Aaron Rodgers over the weekend. The hope is that Rodgers will stay healthy throughout the entire 2026-27 season, giving the Steelers an opportunity to not only make the playoffs but possibly win a Super Bowl.
Curiosity-driven research explained: Basic science lays the foundation for life-saving discoveries - Morgridge Institute for Research
When scientists ask fundamental questions about life, biomedical breakthroughs follow — often at a distance. Why should we embrace the long, unpredictable path from curiosity to cure?
2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds, picks: Surprising predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors
Mike McClure's model has simulated the CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2026 10,000 times and revealed PGA best bets
MEET THE SAILORS, FLY-BYS AND NON-STOP ENTERTAINMENT – WHAT NOT TO MISS IN CAGLIARI THIS WEEKEND
The first stop on the ‘Road to Naples’ for the Louis Vuitton 38th America’s Cup is happening this weekend in Sardinia, on the beautiful waters of the Bay of Angels sat before the bustling port city of Cagliari. Forecasters are predicting ‘champagne’ conditions for the eight teams contesting the Prelim Regatta, and if the sea-breeze comes in, we can expect a feast of top-class international foiling in the world’s most exciting fleet-racing class – the AC40.
Modeling context-dependent RNA splicing by deep learning
Nature Computational Science - A framework called HELIX provides a strategy for predicting full-length transcript isoform usage across diverse biological contexts by integrating sequence features...
A strange ripple in spacetime could be the first fingerprint of dark matter
Black holes crashing together may be revealing clues about dark matter hidden across the universe. Physicists created a new model predicting how dark matter could subtly distort gravitational waves produced during black hole mergers. When they tested the method on real LIGO data, one signal stood out as potentially carrying a dark matter imprint.
Sports Illustrated deletes writer profile, clears out prediction market vertical, following AI plagiarism accusations
After a writer was accused of using AI to plagiarize a Sportico article about prediction market Kalshi, Sports Illustrated deleted the writer’s profile from its site and appears to have cleared out recent content from its prediction market vertical. On May 13, Dan Bernstein and Lev Akabas wrote on Sportico about how users have lost more than…
Opponent writers predict the 49ers’ 2026 record
Even the opposing writers are high on the 49ers in 2026
Wearables increasingly look to AI to predict health problems before they happen
Companies worldwide are studying the potential for technology to predict health events. This would push boundaries of data collection and information sharing.
Chicago Bears Over/Under Player Milestone Predictions (Part 1)
Our guy @GOOCH1701 sets a few fun Chicago Bears over/unders, and then gives his picks. Which way do you predict for these?
New MatterChat Model Helps AI to ‘See’ the Language of Science
From writing emails to generating computer code, much of the artificial intelligence prevalent in our daily lives has succeeded by mastering one domain: text. However, this leaves a major blind spot in the physical sciences, where models depend on the high-resolution, three-dimensional data of the physical world, like the intricate lattice of atoms in a crystal. Delivering on the promise of using AI for science requires teaching these data-driven text models to seamlessly “talk to” physics-based models. Now, a new AI framework from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab), called MatterChat, solves this problem by creating a specialized “bridge.” It connects the conversational power of a Large Language Model (LLM) with a physics-based AI that models “interatomic potentials”: the complex physical forces between atoms. The resulting system already significantly outperforms general-purpose AI tools like GPT-4 at predicting material properties, and the team hopes it can accelerate scientific discovery by serving as a robust research partner that provides grounded insights and generates step-by-step instructions for synthesizing novel materials. A paper describing this work was recently published in Nature Machine Intelligence. “Traditional simulations can provide the physical rigor required for materials science, yet their computational cost remains prohibitive for high-throughput screening. Conversely, while LLMs excel at rapid knowledge synthesis, they inherently lack the ‘structural vision’ to interpret materials directly from their underlying atomic coordinates,” said Yingheng Tang, a postdoctoral researcher in Berkeley Lab’s Applied Math and Computational Research Division (AMCR) and lead author on the paper. “MatterChat was built to solve this dilemma, empowering LLMs with a structural ‘vision’ that allows researchers to leverage their full potential for solving complex, real-world materials challenges.” Empowering language models to solve complex challenges in materials science To build MatterChat, the Berkeley Lab team drew inspiration from technologies like Vision Question Answering (VQA) and Text-to-Image (T2I) generation. In these tasks, AI must translate high-level text concepts into visual images, or vice versa. Doing so requires developers to build tools that “bridge” two fundamentally different forms of data. The researchers adapted this concept to the physical sciences. With MatterChat, they created a “bridge model” that successfully connects an LLM’s general knowledge with the deep understanding of the atomic-scale world encoded in scientific interatomic potentials. Until now, researchers using LLMs to solve materials problems usually had to feed them raw data files as if they were just strings of text. It’s like asking an AI to understand a complex 3D engine based only on a parts list: the LLM can read the names, but it can’t “see” how the atoms fit together in space. MatterChat solves this by training a specialized AI bridge model, pre-trained on millions of crystal structures and an LLM, to align the LLM’s representation of the world with the interatomic potential’s representation of the world. The bridge model can translate physical insights into a format the LLM can actually understand. By giving the LLM these “scientific eyes”— a scientific “inductive bias” in the terminology of AI — the Berkeley Lab team has transformed it into a robust research tool capable of providing grounded scientific insights into complex materials challenges, such as predicting thermal stability or analyzing electronic band gaps. “We think of atoms as living in a physical space, but from a machine learning perspective, they are just vectors living in some very non-trivially structured manifold in a high-dimensional Euclidean space; and, of course, the same is true for the sentences and paragraphs that we use to express our ideas about those atoms,” said co-author Michael Mahoney, Berkeley Lab’s Scientific Data Division (SDD) AI Initiative Research Lead. “The bridge model basically gets those two structures to ‘talk with’ each other.” As a proof-of-concept of this general approach, the team trained their bridge model on a dataset curated by pairing nearly 143,000 stable atomic structures from the Materials Project with their corresponding physical properties. This training data was automatically assembled using the Materials Project’s API and deliberately enriched with properties fundamental to microelectronics design — like formation energy and bandgap — allowing MatterChat to learn the complex patterns connecting a material’s atomic blueprint to its functional performance. To validate their model, the researchers benchmarked MatterChat against a suite of other AI systems, from general-purpose LLMs to other specialized scientific AI methods. The results show that MatterChat consistently outperformed its competitors across a range of tasks. The model was more accurate in classifying material types and demonstrated superior precision in predicting numerical properties. For example, it excelled at predicting a material’s bandgap, a property critical for designing new electronics from high-capacity energy storage to next-generation computer chips. “Our design is significantly more efficient because we don’t have to build a massive AI model from the ground up,” said co-author Zhi (Jackie) Yao, a research scientist in Berkeley Lab’s AMCR. “Instead, we take two powerful, pre-trained models — a structural encoder for materials physics and an open-source LLM — and use them off-the-shelf. The only component we actually train is the lightweight ‘bridge model’ that translates between them. It’s the difference between building an entire car factory and simply designing a smart adapter that connects a world-class engine to a world-class navigation system. This approach is not only computationally efficient, but also makes the system modular, so we can easily upgrade components or adapt the bridge for other scientific domains in the future.” Crucially, this modular design highlights exactly how institutions like Berkeley Lab and the Department of Energy are carving out a highly valuable niche in the booming AI landscape. Rather than competing with Silicon Valley tech giants to build ever-larger language models from scratch, the lab is focusing on the specialized connective tissue that makes commercial AI useful for hardcore science. Because the bridge model approach underlying MatterChat is forward-compatible, it is perfectly positioned to leverage these parallel tracks of innovation. As Mahoney pointed out, “We expect that industry will continue to develop improved LLMs, and we expect domain scientists and facilities will continue to generate new data. An important part of scientific machine learning is not simply to solve problems on today’s data, but instead to develop general methods that will be forward-compatible with orders of magnitude more data, whether from scientific domains or from LLMs.” According to Yao, the MatterChat project, which was initially developed and enhanced with funding from a Berkeley Lab Laboratory Directed Research & Development (LDRD) Program, will now expand its capabilities. In a collaboration with Fermilab, MatterChat is already contributing to a U.S. Department of Energy Genesis Mission project — called Accelerating eXtreme Environment Specs-to-Silicon (AXESS) — that aims to speed up the development of next-generation, high-speed, radiation-hardened detectors for challenging particle physics experiments by using advanced 3D integrated circuits (chiplets) and AI-driven data analysis. In addition to the LDRD support, the team also credits supercomputing resources at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), located at Berkeley Lab, with MatterChat’s success. “We are incredibly grateful to NERSC; this research simply would not have happened without access to the Perlmutter supercomputer through their AI for Science program,” said Tang. Wenbin Xu, a NERSC postdoctoral fellow at the time, was also a major co-author of the work, as was Benjamin Erichson, a research scientist in Berkeley Lab’s SDD, highlighting the benefits of AMCR-SDD collaboration on AI for science. ### Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) is committed to groundbreaking research focused on discovery science and solutions for abundant and reliable energy supplies. The lab’s expertise spans materials, chemistry, physics, biology, earth and environmental science, mathematics, and computing. Researchers from around the world rely on the lab’s world-class scientific facilities for their own pioneering research. Founded in 1931 on the belief that the biggest problems are best addressed by teams, Berkeley Lab and its scientists have been recognized with 17 Nobel Prizes. Berkeley Lab is a multiprogram national laboratory managed by the University of California for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Science. DOE’s Office of Science is the single largest supporter of basic research in the physical sciences in the United States, and is working to address some of the most pressing challenges of our time. For more information, please visit energy.gov/science.
ESPN expects a breakout season for Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty
ESPN is predicting a breakout season for Las Vegas Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: Who has the edge with NBA Finals on the line? Series keys, schedule and prediction
Bleacher Report's Kristopher Knox predicts another rough Browns season
Despite a remade offense one analyst believes not much will change for Cleveland in 2026.
Kentucky football is predicted to get a big recruiting win
The Kentucky Wildcats are poised to add another top 2027 talent, gaining a prediction for a four-star cornerback.
Spurs vs. Thunder: Who wins epic West showdown with NBA Finals on the line? Series keys, schedule and prediction
Greene predicts ‘political revolution in America’ if US troops sent to Iran
Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), a former ally of President Trump who has since sparred with him over multiple issues, on Sunday predicted “political revolution in” the U.S. if there are…
Analyst has bold early-season Chiefs prediction
All eyes are on Mahomes.
Buccaneers Predicted To Overcome AFC North Hurdle
Winless against the AFC North since 2019, Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers look to shatter a persistent hex as experts predict a breakthrough season against physical rivals.
ESPN predicts Bengals will make AFC Championship
A bold claim, but one we all love.
Kentucky’s Curious Cast of Political Characters
The state, where a rebellious Republican faces a tough primary challenge on Tuesday, has an unpredictable political landscape that has produced a long list of surprising figures.
How Investors May Respond To PENN Entertainment (PENN) Cutting Jobs In Its Interactive Division
PENN Entertainment recently announced it will cut more than 75 roles in its Interactive division, as operators across the sports betting industry respond to competitive and technological pressures including AI-enabled platforms and prediction markets drawing customers away from traditional sportsbooks. This restructuring highlights how PENN is reassessing the cost structure and scale of its digital betting operations at a time when its long-term plans rely heavily on improving profitability...
Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano odds, picks, betting predictions, best sportsbook promos, MVP MMA 1 fight card
Here's a look at everything fans and bettors need to know about the bout between Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano
Now What? With Carbon Pricing Eroded and Pipeline Politics Advancing, Here Are the Pathways for Climate Success
At the end of a whirlwind week of news on carbon pricing and electricity strategy, capping a madcap year of pretty much non-stop, dramatic change, the word across much of Canada’s climate and energy transition community is that climate policy in this country has been shredded. Eviscerated. Hit with a sledgehammer by policy rollbacks that have pushed the country’s 2050 net zero target “well out of reach”. That means it’s never been more important to look for the rays of hope and glimmers of possibility. To glimpse the seeds of the next set of strategies to get Canada’s climate pollution under control and the country into the accelerating global dash away from fossil fuels. And then, once we’ve spotted those possibilities, get on with the hard, day-to-day slog of trying to make them a reality. Nothing takes away from the frustration and the deep disappointment so many climate and energy hawks are expressing, the sense of betrayal by the author of Value(s) and the former UN special envoy for climate action and finance. But we knew two things as the week drew to a close. We’re looking at the world as it most definitely is. And we don’t get to give up finding the pathways to confront climate change and deliver faster, deeper carbon cuts that leave no one else behind. So really, the first question we all have to ask ourselves is: What’s next? Subscribe All the Oxygen in the Room The outpouring of anger and grief over the carbon pricing deal between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has been absolutely understandable. So much of the climate community poured years, more than a decade, into dragging the current federal pricing regime across the finish line, then defending it from a deluge of three-syllable rhymes after the Trudeau government proved utterly incapable of delivering its own message. The policy foisted on us by neo-classical economists took up all the oxygen in the room, burned through years of climate response time that we won’t get back, while cornering climate hawks into the position that the best response to the crisis of our lifetimes is a new tax…in an era of historic anti-tax sentiment. I mean, really—what could possibly have gone wrong? Against that history, let’s appreciate columnist Max Fawcett’s point that even a modest carbon pricing agreement with a government as off-the-wall libertarian/conspiracist as Danielle Smith’s—those adjectives are mine, not Max’s—is a win worth savouring (as long as Smith keeps her promises for a change). But part of living in the world as it is (no, I’m not letting that go) is to be clear-headed about what we can and can’t control. And one thing we get to decide, after seeing this week’s carbon price festivities take up all the oxygen yet again, is whether we want to keep letting that happen. Particularly when success down that road depends on a factor that no one with a climate agenda can control or influence—a provincial carbon pricing mechanism that has been manipulated and eroded beyond its lowest possible denominator. Thankfully, that’s not the way it has to go. Not when we have so many other powerful, practical tools at our disposal, including the ones still available to us through this abominable Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Canada and Alberta. Tools In Our Toolbox When I started roughing out this list, I didn’t expect it to grow to nearly a dozen bullet points. It’s probably still incomplete. Some of the greatest hits in today’s climate solutions toolbox include: • No Carbon Capture, No Pipeline: On Friday, Prime Minister Mark Carney explicitly stated that there’s been no change to the MOU provision that there will be no West Coast pipeline without an industry commitment to build its massive, $16.5-billion carbon capture and storage (CCUS) hub in Northern Alberta, and vice versa. The two megaprojects were joined at the hip when the MOU was signed Nov. 27, and the implementation agreement this week affirmed that they still are. A parade of independent analysts have spent years pointing to the economic and technical flaws in CCUS, while the industry kept postponing its investment decision until it could arm-twist the government for more “clarity” (by which it meant even more lavish taxpayer subsidies) on the project. Now the industry itself is running away from the CCUS hub and insisting the pipeline should proceed without it, but Carney doesn’t seem to be budging from a central tenet of the MOU to which Smith has signed on. • No Subsidies, No Investors: Climate analysts and advocates have quite rightly been hammering away at Carney and his team, insisting that any new capacity the industry wants to build must proceed without new subsidies. The government has responded with a growing collection of funding and financing mechanisms for the very wide menu of industrial development and nation-building projects they say they want to take on, and that menu always includes fossil fuel infrastructure. But it’s hard to see how even the combined fiscal clout of the federal and supportive provincial governments will deliver the financial backing private investors would need when the business case for new fossil fuel development is evaporating before their eyes. Particularly when… • No Market, No Demand, No Investors: As our friend Markham Hislop at Energi Media (our apparently sleepless friend, given the massive volume of great material he’s been churning out) points out this morning, the biggest vulnerability in any pipeline deal is the assumption that Asian buyers will want the oil or liquefied natural ga that our fossil industry is so keen to send them. Hislop writes in part: Ottawa and Alberta are effectively betting that countries like China and India will continue increasing oil imports for decades as their economies grow and energy consumption rises. That assumption underpins the entire economic rationale for expanding oil sands production and building billions of dollars in new export infrastructure. But Asian energy systems are changing rapidly… China, India, South Korea, and other major hydrocarbon importers are now investing hundreds of billions of dollars into electricity systems built around wind, solar, batteries, nuclear, hydro, and expanded transmission infrastructure. Domestic “energy sovereignty” is increasingly replacing the old energy-security model based on stable oil and gas imports. Those investments are expected to sharply slow oil demand growth and eventually reverse it, even as overall energy consumption continues rising. There are also refining constraints. Many Asian refineries and petrochemical complexes are already optimized to process discounted heavy crude from the Middle East and Latin America. That raises serious questions about how much additional Canadian bitumen Asian markets can absorb at profitable prices. Small wonder that there’s still no private sector investor for the project, despite Smith’s government desperately beating the bushes to put together a deal. For now, Alberta is acting as proponent and covering early start-up costs for a pitch to the federal Major Projects Office, which could actually turn into the next tough hurdle for Smith and her pipeline to jump. • Canada Day Looms: How ironic that Canada’s birthday this year could become a major chokepoint for the provincial premier who’s been working so diligently to tear the country apart! The July 1 target date for Alberta’s pipeline proposal is baked into the MOU, was reaffirmed by the implementation plan, but it hadn’t dawned on me that it cuts both ways. As one very smart colleague wrote in an email yesterday, “they’ve thrown the ball into Alberta’s court to get the project proposal on the table really quickly and to have to do a whole pile of work to put together a massive, complicated project that would typically take years to assemble, and they’ve given them weeks to do it.” That makes July 1 a looming deadline that Smith won’t be able to run away from politically, especially with the separatists in her party and her caucus breathing down her neck. (See previous ref to off-the-wall.) But if Alberta comes in with a sloppy, incomplete submission, even after Carney bent over backwards to simplify the application process and the rules that govern it, it may be harder for the province or the industry to blame Ottawa and insist on the faster process they claim their investors are demanding. (Oh, wait—which investors would those be??) • We’ll See You In Court (Then We’ll See You Again): If Carney did cave, that would be just one more reason for Indigenous and other affected communities to take the government and the process to court—Just as Alberta First Nations did, successfully, in response to Smith’s half-baked separation referendum. Veterans of the Harper era have been warning that a shoddy process around fossil fuel infrastructure or other major projects will be a recipe for the very delays that process seeks to avoid. And now more than ever, with renewable energy and energy storage eating fossil fuels’ lunch in import markets around the world, a delayed pipeline or LNG terminal may be as good as a cancelled one. • Charged Up, Ready to Go: With its goal of doubling Canada’s electricity supply to meet a doubling of demand by 2050, the national electricity strategy that Carney unveiled Thursday has a lot to like. With its explicit language about speeding the shift from fuels to more efficient and affordable electricity, global investment and deployment patterns that already favour that shift, an emerging bidirectional power grid, the role of front-line options like rooftop solar and heat pumps, the emergence of electric vehicles as behind-the-meter energy storage, and the domestic jobs and manufacturing to make it all happen, the document doubles down on the essential cornerstone of a faster shift off fossil fuels. The strategy envisions a more prominent role for gas and nuclear power. But some of those provisions were already in the Clean Electricity Regulations that climate hawks are now fighting so hard to defend, inserted as a compromise in a futile attempt to mollify the industry and its political representatives in Alberta and Saskatchewan. But once again, gas will be a tougher sell when it’s more expensive and now so much more unpredictable than the clean alternatives. The new nuclear technologies are still speculative and deeply vulnerable to cost overruns. Increasingly, utilities, developers, and investors know it. Carney declared Thursday that “it doesn’t do us good to be sitting in court all the time with provinces. It doesn’t do us good to be talking past each other. What does do us good is to come together with specific projects.” There are no guarantees, but so much of the language and narrative-building in the electricity strategy suggests the lion’s share of those projects will be renewable. • The Party Has Already Started: The electricity strategy only rarely digs down to specific projects, but provinces representing three-quarters of Canada’s population are already embracing a faster transition. Hydro-Québec is working on a 10-year, $185-billion renewable energy and grid buildout by 2035. Ontario recently brought 10 provinces and territories together in a National Energy Corridor Agreement to boost interprovincial and -territorial transmission infrastructure. And the MOU implementation agreement commits Alberta to facilitate investment in renewable energy projects, a big step back from its continuing, punitive restrictions on renewables development. The electricity strategy envisions much of the financing and infrastructure that will be needed to pull those advances together into an integrated whole. • Delivering on Affordability: The MOU implementation plan has little or nothing to say about affordability (are you surprised?), but the electricity strategy does, with a top-line pledge to reduce home energy costs for seven out of 10 Canadian households by 2050, a total saving of $15 billion across the board. It’s just a start, but it puts affordability on the government’s narrative map. If they’re serious and deliberate about patching together a least-cost energy strategy, it’ll have little if any room for oil, gas, or nuclear—not with powerful evidence, for example, that electricity prices are higher when those prices are set by gas. • Smith Proves that Canada Works: By signing a deal that makes it harder to claim the federal government is blocking a new pipeline, Smith has helped prove Carney’s constant anti-separatist refrain that “Canada works”—incurring the rage, no doubt, of her own political base. Canada also needs to work for anyone who depends on a clean environment, healthy and thriving ecosystems, and safe, stable climate. But with Smith and her separatist constituents setting up as a fifth column for annexation by Donald Trump’s United States, let’s set aside any notion that 51st state status for Canada is a recipe for anything other than climate disaster (and so much else). Resisting and withstanding Trump (just 170 more sleeps until mid-term elections, which is a damn sight better than the 730 we started with) doesn’t mean a free pass for a pipeline, but we can still appreciate it that keeping Canada whole and sovereign is still Carney’s Job One. • The Words Not Spoken: Apart from a commitment to export a million barrels of “low-emission” Alberta bitumen per day (memo to Smith and Carney: You realize that that’s less than the industry is already exporting??), the MOU implementation plan says nothing about the international trade and economic sovereignty deals that Carney has been travelling the world to negotiate. It didn’t have to. Carney doesn’t need permission from Danielle Smith, her American enablers, or her separatist allies to continue building the alliances that will ratchet down our economic dependency on our unstable, unreliable neighbour to the south. But every connection he builds with countries outside North America helps align our economy and our future with a faster shift off fossil fuels. Little if any of this was on our bingo cards a year or two ago. But it’s the pathway that has opened up to us. And if it gives Canada any climate or energy gains at all in an era still dominated by Trump and his increasingly ridiculous tariffs, his loutish trade negotiations and his continuing annexation threats, we have to take the wins. Not least because they’ll be the point of departure for what we can achieve in 2027, 2029, and beyond, as Trump’s grip and this era begin to loosen and then fade. What is Carney Doing? If this line of thought is right—and it’s a possibility, not a prediction—it means that Carney’s actions and decisions are largely about buying time. Time for Trump’s power to wane. Time for Alberta’s separatist/conspiracist virus to spread, mutate, die out, or at least die back, with help from a vaccine of federal steadiness and calm (appropriate enough, for a movement populated largely by vaccine deniers) that no conspiracy theory can dismiss. And time for the government’s trade and investment agenda to deliver results—even knowing that some of those results will bring impacts that front-line communities will not and should not accept. In the immediate moment, none of this changes the way the wider climate community has to respond, from campaigners to investors to front-line practitioners. All of our voices are still essential. But those voices will be stronger and more confident if we have a clearer sense of the brutal game we’ve been pulled into, and a plausible path (or two it three) for playing it to the win we need. This conversation also underscores our biggest task for the remaining years of what was supposed to be the “decisive” decade for climate response: if we can shift the energy narrative in Canada, make it a mainstream view that the country’s preoccupation with oil and gas has us falling farther behind a changing world, we’ll see far better results in the 2030s and beyond. For many veteran climate advocates, taking on that part of the fight will begin with recognizing that most of our friends and family, neighbours and colleagues already understand that climate change is real and right in front of us: they’re looking away and staying silent because they don’t have what climate communicator Katharine Hayhoe calls “efficacy”. As Hayhoe recently pointed out in a feature interview with The Energy Mix, it amounts to science denial to keep hammering away at the dire news about global warming without also helping audiences understand what they can do about it, with multiple studies telling us why that won’t work. Far better to open those conversations with the dominant crises like energy security, food security, emergency preparedness and business continuity, affordability, and financial security that have knocked climate change far lower on the list of public priorities, and will likely keep it there. We Knew This Would Happen Climate hawks have always known this day would come. For decades, we warned that everyone had to pay attention to climate change right now, because it would be much tougher to respond once the crisis itself started affecting our daily lives. We were right, and here we are. But now, thanks to decades of hard work, communities and countries have an alternative to doubling down on fossil fuels. “In 10 years everyone will have ‘always known’ that solar and batteries were going to win,” Morgan Solar Executive Chair Mike Andrade writes on LinkedIn. With the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz roiling energy priorities around the world, Canada and the United States are among the shrinking number of countries that are still very keen on fossil fuel development. Understanding that gap is a first, essential step in spotting the opportunities ahead, and averting the deep economic as well as environmental and social risk we face if we don’t seize them. Thanks for reading The Energy Mix Weekender! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Subscribe Mitchell Beer traces his background in renewable energy and energy efficiency back to 1977, in climate change to 1997. Now he and the rest of the Energy Mix team scan 1,200 news headlines a week to pull together The Energy Mix and The Energy Mix Weekender. Chart of the Week BYD Eyes 20 Dealership Locations After Canada Greenlights Chinese EV Imports ‘Sledgehammer’ Carbon Price Deal Boosts Emissions by 230Mt, Aims for Fall 2027 Pipeline Approval ‘Worse Than Harper’: Regulatory Rollback Would Stop Canada from Assessing Project Impacts, Critics Warn Electricity Strategy Aims for Doubling by 2050, Allows ‘Flexibility’ for Gas Power Plants Opposition Mounts as O’Leary’s Data Centre Approved in Drought-Stricken Utah Diluted Carbon Price Misses ‘Reality of the World We’re In’, Could Impede Diversified Trade: Climate Institute $200B in Clean Energy Investment Will Need On-Time Delivery, Reliable Policies, Trade Association Says ‘Sovereign Pipeline’: CEO Pitches to Keep Trans Mountain in Government Hands What a Supercharged El Niño Could Mean for Canada Canada’s future is electric, and here’s how a power grid superhighway would get us there (Toronto Star) The Perilous Waters of Hecate Strait (Globe and Mail) Saudi Aramco profits jump despite conflict in Middle East (The Guardian) Farmers confront rising cost of fertilizer and fuel as spring seeding under way (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation) Clarkson forecasts 24% decline in offshore oil, gas capital expenditures (Oil & Gas Journal) Pipe Dreams: How Oil and Gas Fail to Deliver Economic Development in Africa (Oil Change International) Developing countries must hold the pen to script the fossil fuel transition (Climate Home News) Iran war threatens the dream of a post-oil economy in the Gulf (Washington Post) U.S. Oil, Gas Work Force Hits Lowest Level Since 2022 (Rigzone) Why Polestar Is Doubling Down on Net Zero as Rivals Pull Back on EVs (Bloomberg) Why this Michigan utility plans to sell its hydro dams for $13 (E&E News/Politico) Levees can no longer save New Orleans (Vox)
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