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Marion County warns Oregon behavioral health rules put staff, residents at greater risk
KATU ABC 2 offers coverage of news, weather, sports and community events for Portland, Oregon and surrounding towns, including Beaverton, Lake Oswego, Milwaukie, Happy Valley, Gresham, Vancouver, Hillsboro, Oregon City, Tualatin, West Linn, Woodburn, Tigard, Tualatin and Garden Home.
Palantir Just Issued a Warning to Business Leaders About AI: Guard This 1 Thing Like 'Treasure'
Palantir also warned about tokenmaxxing and a sense of 'false progress.'
UN panel warns AI is outpacing scientific understanding, government policy
AI is already being used to generate misinformation and other harmful content and could be exploited for fraud, cyberattacks and biological threats.
Do this, not that: Health warnings, tips ahead of 4-day heat wave
To prevent illness and injuries, health officials recommend the following safety tips from the American Red Cross and National Safety Council.
Michigan health officials warn of ‘large and growing outbreak’ of cyclosporiasis
State officials are still working to identify what caused the spread of more than 170 cases.
WATCH: Obama, Harris advisor warns ‘betrayed’ Black voters could be Texas Senate candidate's kryptonite
Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico is facing a problem of Black voter enthusiasm in Texas after defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett, according to party insiders.
Food science sector warns proposed US grant rules could weaken research independence
As the deadline for public comment approaches, a proposed overhaul of the rules governing federal financial assistance is drawing increasing attention from research institutions, universities, and industry organizations, with implications that could extend across the US F&B sector.
Critical flaw in Oracle E-Business Suite is under immediate threat
Researchers warn that successful exploitation of the vulnerability could allow an attacker to compromise Oracle Payments.
BlueCrest warns UK is bad for business after losing £200mn tax battle
Investment firm says country ‘no longer a serious contender’
Pop-up warnings on social media? Minnesota law aims to ease negative mental health impacts
New warning labels will pop up on social media sites and apps to flag potential mental health risks of spending too much time online.
Quakes strain Venezuela’s health system
LA GUAIRA, Venezuela -- Aid groups warned Tuesday that Venezuela's fragile healthcare system is being pushed to its limits nearly a week after two powerful earthquakes, with damaged and understaffed hospitals getting overwhelmed by the injured and infectious diseases flaring in the disaster zone.
Port Arthur businesses demand better notice after water line break halts operations
A series of water line breaks in Port Arthur left some local restaurants without water and with little warning, forcing them to scramble, shut down service and
Wyoming Department of Health Warns Residents About Spoofing Calls
CHEYENNE, WY — The Wyoming Department of Health (WDH) is alerting residents to a recent phone scam where bad actors are “spoofing” official department phone numbers to solicit personal information. “Spoofing” is a form of scamming where a bad actor manipulates a caller ID to display a different phone number, often displaying the information of […]
Minnesota's social media health warning law takes effect Wednesday. Here's what you need to know.
Doctor warns of health risks as Massachusetts heat wave intensifies
Massachusetts faces a dangerous heat stretch, and a South Shore Health doctor warns the heat can strain the heart and other organs.
Health officials warn of West Nile virus in mosquito in Alhambra, human infection in Long Beach
The first human case of West Nile virus in Long Beach and current mosquito-carrying activity in the San Gabriel Valley has been reported this month.
Venezuela quake: key services crippled and health workers missing
Search and rescue operations continued in Venezuela on Tuesday as thousands of displaced people struggled to find shelter and humanitarians warned about the spread of infectious disease.
NATO joins exercises off US coast, even as it loses political fight in Trump's Washington
The warning came booming over the airwaves, in a voice unmistakably from the American south: "Warship! Get out of our waters!"
Former NFL star has warning for Commanders about Brandon Aiyuk
One former NFL WR warns the Commanders, especially GM Adam Peters about Brandon Aiyuk.
Tejano singer warns of West Nile dangers after mosquito bite leaves him in wheelchair
A single mosquito bite two years ago changed Fernando Silva’s life forever and health officials are now warning that this summer’s record mosquito surge across southeast Texas could put thousands of others at risk.
'Cruel, heartless': Critics raise health concerns with proposed immigrant detention facility
Critics warn that plans for a proposed immigration detention center in Salt Lake City may not be dead and are raising healthcare concerns if such a facility is built.
Trump demands gas stations lower pump prices immediately and renews push for $2.50 gasoline
President Trump demands gas station owners drop fuel prices immediately, targeting $2.50 a gallon and warning of consequences for price gouging.
Chatbots Are Replacing Therapists With Little Scientific Evidence Behind Them
Over 100 chatbots are marketed as mental-health-focused, but experts warn they shouldn’t take the place of therapy.
Senator Cassidy, a past RFK supporter, warns of secretary's impact on public health
The Louisiana Republican, who helped confirm Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. as health secretary, voiced concerns about his leadership in a Sunday CBS News interview.
Alito blasts latest SCOTUS ballot ruling as invitation to ‘voter fraud’ risks
Justice Samuel Alito warns that counting late-arriving mail-in ballots could severely undermine Americans' confidence in election integrity.
Better Business Bureau urges seniors to watch for scams as fraud losses quadruple since 2020
The Better Business Bureau is warning older adults to be more cautious.
Decline in plankton across Northeast Atlantic sends stark warning for ocean health
Microscopic plankton are among the most important organisms on Earth. Phytoplankton produce around half of the oxygen we breathe, while plankton as a whole underpin marine food webs, support fisheries, ...
Bill Maher's dire midterm election warning to Dems after 'really crazy' socialists win primaries
Bill Maher warns Democrats are 'well on their way' to blowing the midterms after three socialists won New York primaries last week.
Does a recent U.S. Supreme Court decision affect how Minnesota can warn of pesticide health dangers?
The question stemmed from a lawsuit about cancer risks associated with Monsanto's widely-used weed killer, Roundup.
Potential Xbox Series X|S owners: You should probably upgrade this July
With warnings of further price hikes coming for the video game console market, potential Xbox Series X|S owners might want to upgrade in July 2026.
Comcast to split cable business from media through NBCUniversal, Sky spinoff
Comcast will split into two publicly traded companies through a spinoff of NBCUniversal and Sky, separating its cash-generating broadband arm from a media and entertainment business under pressure from streaming rivals and industry consolidation. The latest U.S. media industry shake-up follows years of cord-cutting as legacy players chase scale to better compete with Netflix while Paramount Skydance's $110 billion deal for Warner Bros Discovery is set to boost competition. Comcast, which leans on cable for much of its cash flow, is also losing broadband customers to fixed wireless offerings from T-Mobile and Verizon and to fiber rivals building out networks.
63,000 Long Islanders will lose Essential Plan health coverage July 1. Here's what to do.
Healthcare experts warn that many people kicked off the program will not be able to afford insurance and will avoid seeking care.
Bank of England chief economist warns against ‘complacency’ in fight against inflation
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
Radiology vendor Nano-X Imaging warns of ‘going concern’ risk as losses deepen
The publicly traded, Israel-based company reported its quarterly earnings result on June 25, including a net loss of $14.3 million, up 8% from the previous year.
Businesses 'can't survive' Shirley roadworks, publican warns
Southern Water has been repairing a collapsed sewer in Shirley, Southampton since April.
Doctors warn World Cup fans to prepare for dangerous heat in Kansas City
University Health doctors are urging World Cup fans in Kansas City to prepare for dangerous heat this week, with heat index values expected between 100 and 110 degrees.
It’s the End of an Era for Xbox Game Pass, According to a New Report
A new Xbox Game Pass report has warned it is about to be the end of an era for the Microsoft subscription service.
“Toy Story 5 ”soars past “Supergirl”'s bumpy $38 million takeoff at the box office
D.C. and Warner Bros. were hoping for a $50–55 million return on their $170 million investment into the standalone supheroine flick.
CD Projekt is rebranding as CD Projekt Red, but confusingly, CD Projekt Red is still CD Projekt Red
CD Projekt has rebranded itself as CD Projekt Red – or CD Projekt Red Spółka Akcyjna, to be precise.
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
Nebraska Democrats warn of new political party for spoiler candidates
Two top leaders with the Nebraska Democratic Party are warning of a new political party they believe aims to put spoiler candidates in Nebraska’s big midterm races.
Entertainment Firms Face AI Copyright Uncertainty
Editorial analysis: For AI and ML practitioners, unclear copyright rules raise the legal risk and compliance cost of using generative models in production content pipelines. According to The Economic Times, Indian entertainment firms are investing heavily in AI for content creation, but current copyright law, which is tied to human creativity, may not clearly protect AI-assisted or AI-generated works. The Economic Times reports lawyers warn that, without specific legislation or case law, such works face risks of duplication and misuse, complicating licensing, attribution, and monetization for studios and creators. The article highlights that creators and rights holders in India currently have limited legal recourse under existing statutes, per The Economic Times.
Sen. Warnock was struck that VP Vance ‘wasted no time telling the Pope how to be the Pope.’
If USMCA is not renewed, analysts expect uncertainty for businesses
US President Donald Trump has warned he would 'rather not have' the free trade agreement ahead of its July 1 review.
What science tells us about the algae bloom in the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool
Algal blooms are not maintenance failures requiring paint or treatment with hydrogen peroxide and nanobubbles. They are ecological warning signs.
Star Wars Eclipse "literally cannot be finished" without more staff, insist striking Quantic Dream developers
Striking staff at Quantic Dream have warned that if the studio proceeds with layoffs, its upcoming Star Wars Eclipse game "literally cannot be finished".
Quantic Dream Developers Strike to Save Star Wars Eclipse, Warning that 115 Layoffs Would Doom the Unfinished Game
Quantic Dream developers are striking to save Star Wars Eclipse, warning that 115 layoffs would leave the unfinished game without a future.
Browns Warned Over Deshaun Watson Decision
The Cleveland Browns can insist that their quarterback competition between Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders will be decided on the field, but the decision will not be made in a vacuum. The post Browns Warned Over Deshaun Watson Decision appeared first on HEAVY.
How Phones Alerted Millions Before Quakes Shook Venezuela
Millions of people in Venezuela and surrounding countries received early warning alerts to their phones up to two minutes before back-to-back earthquakes on Wednesday.
Trump warns ‘godless communists’ will turn cities into slums as Dems fail to fight socialist surge
Trump calls Democratic socialist primary winners "godless communists" at Faith & Freedom Coalition, warning of threats to America's founding principles.
Trump tries out midterms message that focuses on ‘communists’
Trump warned an audience of religious conservatives that communism is spreading in the U.S., a new theme for his midterm campaign.
'The Bear' ending explained – Jeremy Allen White, cast unpack finale
Warning: This story contains spoilers from the Season 5 finale of “The Bear,” now streaming on Hulu. Clear the plates and pack the linens – “The Bear” has served its
Air-conditioning becomes political amid sweltering Europe heatwave
Much of western Europe baked under a “heat dome” as temperatures soar. Authorities warn that the extreme conditions could endanger lives across countries, many of which have limited air conditioning, a topic of which has left the people of Paris divided.
Bayer wins in US court, but at what cost to public health?
A landmark US Supreme Court ruling protects Bayer from thousands of lawsuits linked to its Roundup weedkiller. Plaintiffs alleged the German agrochemical giant failed to warn users about potential cancer risks.
Grand Theft Auto 6 demand may be so high it will "likely outstrip supply" this holiday season, a video game retailer warns
Speaking to The Game Business, a major senior games buyer has warned that stocks might not survive the spending frenzy this fall.
Hall of Fame GM Expresses Concerns About Extending Vita Vea
As a lucrative "hold-in" intensifies, Bill Polian warns that committing massive capital to an aging nose tackle could backfire for a Tampa Bay roster already in transition.
Parasite Affecting 1 in 3 People Is a Serious Risk to Human Health, Scientists Warn
More needs to be done.
Children's Minnesota doctor warns of Benadryl challenge dangers
Thieves are breaking through drywall to burglarize Chicago businesses, police warn
Chicago police issued a community alert on Thursday warning that several businesses have been burglarized by thieves who broke in through the drywall.
It's Xbox's turn (again), as console prices keep going up
Microsoft announced a price hike for the Xbox Series consoles today, the third in little over a year. Effective August 1, the Xbox Series S, which launched in 2020 for $300, will cost $500 in the U.S. The Xbox Series X, which launched in 2020 at $500, will go for $800. This follows a round of PlayStation 5 price increases from Sony this spring, and a slow-motion increase for Nintendo’s Switch 2, which will kick in in the U.S. in September. (Mind you, there were also eight video game industry price hikes in six months of 2025). The chart up top shows the sudden ascent of console prices over the past year, a sudden surge in an already unusual hardware generation. Prices had been flat for years, now “up” is the new “flat.” Game console prices used to go down across the length of a console generation, but not this time around. Microsoft’s explanation for the new price hike today: We hoped another price increase would not be necessary, and we have spent the last several months working with suppliers on options. Unfortunately, console storage and memory prices have increased by more than 2.5x and we expect another doubling by the fall of 2027. The entire consumer electronics industry is struggling with the current components crisis, but the effects are particularly hard on consoles. Unlike phones, computers, speakers, and other consumer devices, consoles are typically not sold at a profit, but instead for less than they cost to make. This is an issue well beyond game consoles. Apple announced price hikes on its computers and tablets today as well. Game File is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe Item 2: Brutal Bungie cuts Bungie laid off “most” of its Destiny development team and some developers who worked on Marathon, the newest game from the struggling Sony-owned studio. A WARN notice issued by Sony to Washington State, where Bungie is based, tallied cuts impacting 292 workers, effective next month. That’s strictly for Bungie/Sony jobs in Washington and wouldn’t account for any elsewhere. The video I clipped below shows the redacted list of Bungie cuts filed to Washington State officials. As you’ll see, I had to scroll for a while… In a note emailed to PlayStation workers and published online, PlayStation game studios chief Hermen Hulst offered the following explanation for these latest cuts at Bungie: This is painful news, especially for talented colleagues whose roles have been eliminated. This decision was made only after extensive discussion and careful consideration, and I want to provide some context on how we arrived here. Over the past several months, together with Bungie leadership, we reviewed the studio’s long-term direction, development priorities, resource needs, and role within our broader portfolio strategy. We explored multiple alternatives before concluding that a reduction was necessary to align the studio’s resources with its current priorities and long-term goals. In 2022, Sony bought Bungie for $3.7 billion. The studio’s marquee game, the multiplayer live service shooter Destiny 2 was losing popularity at the time. Its next game Marathon, released earlier this year, has been well-reviewed but had a slow start. Bungie is renowned for making great shooter games, and Destiny fans have mourned the wind-down of Destiny 2. They’ve also expressed bewilderment over reports that Destiny 3 is not, per Bloomberg, immediately in the cards.
Dems put on blast over poll that shows record-low patriotism in US: 'Tear our society apart'
Rep. Harriet Hageman raises alarm over Gallup poll showing just 17% of Americans were "very proud" of their country, a record low in 25 years.
Health officials warn against swimming at Avocado Lake after elevated E. coli levels
Health officials are advising people to avoid swimming at Avocado Lake after elevated levels of E. coli bacteria were detected at the lake's swim beach.Accordin
Sony files WARN notice for layoffs at Bungie in Bellevue
Sony Interactive Entertainment is reducing the workforce at Bungie, with layoffs affecting a significant number of employees.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
What to know about early warnings for earthquakes
Many countries have systems to alert people seconds before shaking begins in an earthquake. Experts say even a slight warning provides critical time for protection.
Europe heatwave breaks records as UN agencies ramp up health warnings
As a record-breaking heatwave grips large parts of Europe, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), national weather services and partners are mobilising heat-health action plans for millions of people facing dangerous temperatures.
Apple raises Mac and iPad prices by as much as 25%
Apple CEO Tim Cook had earlier warned of price increases due to the memory chip shortage.
How should European scientists respond to the US AI kill switch?
Earlier in June, Europe’s worst fears of technological dependence were confirmed when the White House ordered the AI firm Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using its leading models. This kill-switch moment crystalised anxieties in Brussels that the continent, lagging the US on the creation of leading-edge AI models, is now a technological of vassal of Washington. The shock has specific implications for European scientists and universities. Some governments are now worried that with AI being integrated into labs, Donald Trump now has his finger hovering over an off switch for European science. “Having restrictions on this tool, it can have an impact on our own research,” said France’s research minister, Philippe Baptiste, at the VivaTech conference in Paris on June 18.Baptiste, himself a former academic, said that colleagues in mathematics had recently warned him they were now cut off from leading-edge US models, risking their work. “This model is not available anymore now because of the US restriction, and for the first time this had an impact on mathematics,” a field where large language models (LLMs) are making a significant contribution, said Baptiste. So, should European scientists avoid relying on US models in the future? Or would this be a self-harming overreaction? And how is AI being used in science, anyway? What happened?On June 12, it emerged that Washington, citing cybersecurity concerns, had ordered Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using two models: Claude Mythos 5, and Claude Fable 5, a version of Mythos but with guardrails to prevent abuse. Anthropic said Washington’s concerns were overblown. But forced to follow the order, yet with no way to check who was using the models, the company suddenly shut down access for everyone, US citizens included. There’s still no agreement on how to restore broad access. But last week, Bloomberg reported that select US companies, and the US government, still had access to Mythos despite the ban, but the EU’s cybersecurity agency Enisa had been shut out. Class division of researchersIn the longer term, access outside the US should be restored, said Marcel Salathé, co-director of the AI centre at the Federal Polytechnic School of Lausanne (EPFL), because a permanent restriction would be financially ruinous to US AI firms. “Even Trump will eventually budge to economic pressure,” he said.However, US AI firms might end up operating rather like banks, doing due diligence on users of their leading-edge AI models, he went on.European scientists are unlikely to fall foul of such checks, he said. But having a Chinese postgraduate in their lab, or doing a type of research the US disapproved of, could potentially result in access being denied. “It will create a sort of class division of researchers,” he said. More than frontier modelsHowever, successfully deploying AI in science is about far more than just having access to leading LLMs such as Mythos.Instead, many science-specific tools, most famously Alphafold, which predicts protein folding structures, require “far less” computing power to train than frontier models, well within the capabilities of European supercomputers, according to a recent analysis by the Arq Foundation, a Brussel-based AI think tank. Instead, tools such as Alphafold are possible because certain fields, like protein folding, weather prediction or astronomy, have large, clean, standardised datasets that can be used to train predictive models. Rather than compute, “data is the central constraint for AI for science,” the report says. For example, a less powerful physics model trained on CERN’s data “will be more valuable than the best model without certain data,” said Bengüsu Özcan, author of the report. European advantage?Europe could therefore steal a march by using its scientific data and infrastructure to create models US digital giants cannot. “They might actually match or go even beyond what these big [US] companies are doing,” said Özcan.Indeed, some European start-ups hope to create automated testing labs to create the kind of standardised data that could speed up the discovery of new materials. Materials scientists say there’s currently too little data to train models. AI scientistsHowever, even if the bottleneck for AI in science is often data, rather than compute, being at the mercy of the US for LLM access could still become a problem for European scientists. A new class of “AI scientists” based on leading LLMs is also emerging, Özcan’s report says.Unlike domain-specific tools like Alphafold, these try to automate day-to-day scientific work, by providing an overarching tool that coordinates specific models to synthesise existing literature, generate hypotheses or run analysis of data. The problem for Europe, however, is that these tools are sometimes based on US leading models. Google Deepmind’s AI Co-Scientist, for example, is built on Google’s Gemini LLM. Systematic failureThese scientific automation tools are still in their early stages, and still exhibit “systematic failures on scientific tasks,” Özcan’s report says. One of the problems is that the messy, day-to-day process of scientific discovery is largely not documented, meaning LLMs don’t have a good source of data to learn how scientists actually work. Meanwhile, some tasks, such as literature synthesis, don’t typically require access to leading edge models.However, the performance of AI scientific assistants could improve as companies such as Google pour resources into developing them. Rely on US“Unfortunately, for scientific assistants, there is not much we can do right now except rely on US frontier AI,” said Antoine Bosselut, a natural language processing expert based at EPFL. Chinese-built open models, which can run on local computers, lessening the risk of a shutdown, are touted as one alternative to US dependence. There’s also Mistral, once seen as Europe’s main AI hope, but the Paris-based company has seen its recent models fall behind in performance. But the Chinese alternatives are generally not as capable as US frontier AI models, said Bosselut, unless paired with fiddly, custom tools that allows them to act as independent agents. “Most scientists do not have the time,” he said. Don’t jump ship yetAlthough the kill switch moment is seen a warning shot for European scientists, it doesn’t mean labs should abandon US AI tools immediately. “I do not think the right response is simply to abandon US-based models and systems under the banner of sovereignty or independence,” said Mattias Björnmalm, secretary general of the Cesaer university association. “That would be an overreaction.”Related articlesEuropean sovereignty in AI requires ‘ugly trade-offs,’ say experts Robotic lab start-up makes case for €500M EU-funded materials testing facilityAI in science: is it useful? Instead, European researchers need to ask themselves whether they’re becoming dependent on technology that could be turned off in Washington, said Özcan. “They might not see this today, but they should really start asking this question,” she said. European researchers need a plan B, said Salathé. “I would recommend to every researcher, very proactively explore alternatives.”Own toolsIn addition, Björnmalm and others want European research institutions to develop their own scientific AI tools.Instead of signing AI deals with US digital giants, European universities should be using this money to create their own models, which may end up being superior for research, said Sabine Leonelli, an expert on the use of AI in science at the Technical University of Munich. “Universities in Europe seem to be happy to sign commercial contracts with US companies on the assumption [their AI tools] are better,” she said. But US frontier LLMs are typically opaque, and have been developed without independent scientific input, she said. “This is not good enough for science.”Last year, Swiss researchers released Apertus, an LLM designed to be completely transparent, from its development methods to its training data. The idea is that this makes scientific tools built on top of the model far more reproducible than with closed, commercial alternatives.“Europe needs more of this: serious capacity-building that gives researchers, universities and companies credible options,” said Björnmalm.
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