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NJ Reminds Residents to Continue to Take Precautions Against Mosquito-Borne Illnesses
NJ Reminds Residents to Continue to Take Precautions Against Mosquito-Borne Illnesses
3 new business openings worth knowing about in downtown and North Raleigh
A yoga studio, a 35-year-old coffee shop expanding near its Hillsborough Street home, and a round hotel reborn after a $36 million makeover.
Nicholas 'Nick' Rehwaldt, 'political junkie,' with sharp wit dies at 37
Nicholas Lloyd Rehwaldt, 37, of Evanston, died Sept. 6, 2026. Born July 5, 1989, in Chicago, Nick graduated from Evanston Township High School. He
A Heart Valve That Grows Up With The Patient Wins FDA Approval
By Ellyn Vohnoutka HealthDay ReporterFRIDAY, Oct. 2, 2026 (HealthDay News) — Children born with certain heart defects may face fewer open-heart surgeries, thanks to a new replacement valve that grows with them. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Thursday approved the Autus ...
Artist Enrique Martínez Celaya hand-painted L.A. Opera's new curtain
L.A. Opera is set to unveil a monumental new curtain created by the Cuban-born artist Enrique Martínez Celaya. More than a year in the making, the utilitarian art work will serve as the visual centerpiece of the company's entire 2026–27 season.
Nebraska’s Dan Osborn responds to leaked audio commenting on Trump supporters
Osborn, an independent running for Senate, answered rapid-fire questions.
Good science requires much more than evidence
Empiricists believe that scientific theories are true only if they make correct empirical predictions: if we can't verify these predictions, then there is no reason to expect that they tell us anything about reality. However, Professor of Philosophy at King's College David Kyle Johnson argues that this is mistaken. In response to Bas van Fraassen, who has written on this subject for the IAI, he argues that we have many reasons for believing a theory to be true, such as it being parsimonious and having large scope — qualities which have been used throughout the history of science as criteria for judging theories. In 2024, Princeton philosopher Bas van Fraassen wrote a short article for IAI News entitled “Science Does not Describe Reality: The Limits and Benefits of Explanation.” At the time, I was working on two projects (a science book and a Great Course) that, when completed, would (among other things) defend science’s ability to describe reality. I wanted to write a response to van Fraassen, but the projects demanded too much of my attention. But now that those projects are complete, I am in a position to explain the objections to van Fraassen’s thesis. Summarizing van Fraassen’s argumentIn a nutshell, his argument is this: What scientists do is make predictions based on theories and then invite others to test to see whether those predictions are borne out. “If theory T is right, result R should happen in experimental condition C.” Many think that running an experiment that shows that R happens in condition C is proof that theory T is true (and should be believed). But, van Fraassen argues, that R happened in condition C is only a reason to think that R happens in condition C. That’s the only observable, or empirical, result we can actually see, so that is all that we are really justified in believing. (The underlying theory that made that prediction still may or may not be true.) That is why he calls those who accept his position “empiricists.”Before I explain what is wrong with this position, let me explain what it gets right. What van Fraassen Gets RightFirst, a theory correctly predicting the results of an experiment is not, strictly speaking, “proof” that the theory is correct. The basic line of reasoning is this:If the theory T is true, result R should happen. Result R did happen. Thus, theory T is true.In other words:“If T then R. R. Thus, T.”This is a deductively invalid, fallacious mode of reasoning, called “affirming the consequent.” Those premises do not guarantee that the conclusion follows. “If I am in Pennsylvania, then I am in the USA. I am in the USA. Thus, I am in Pennsylvania.” Clearly that argument doesn’t guarantee its conclusion; neither does the above argument.However, science is not a deductive method of reasoning; it is an inductive one. And inductive arguments merely try to raise the probability of their conclusion, not “prove” them for certain. Thus, the fact that an experimental result doesn’t prove a theory is true is irrelevant; it’s not supposed to. That is not what scientific reasoning is about.___If the hypothesis that something exists clearly provides the best explanation for what we can observe, then the belief that it exists is what is rational.___Second, it’s also true that a single experimental result doesn’t provide enough justification to believe that a theory is true. Scientists do not come to a consensus about whether a theory is true by looking at a single experiment; they look at all the evidence to determine where the preponderance of evidence points. The mere fact that I am in the USA raises the probability that I am in Pennsylvania, but not nearly enough to conclude that I am in Pennsylvania. However, if I am also regularly encountering people wearing Eagles and Phillies hats and seeing advertisements for Founding Father tours, I probably am. In the same way, a theory successfully predicting the outcome of one experiment is not enough to conclude that it is true; but if a theory makes a wide variety of predictions that are all vindicated by multiple experiments, performed by many different groups and people, all actively trying to prove the theory false (which is what good scientific experiments are designed to do)—that is a good reason to conclude that the theory is true. In other words, if you repeatedly try to prove something false but can’t, that is a very good indication that it isn’t. The problem of underdeterminationIn reply, those whom van Fraassen calls “empiricists” often point to the “problem of underdetermination.” For any given theory that makes successful predictions about what happens in experimental conditions, there are countless other possible theories that make exactly the same predictions—and since they do, the experimental evidence in question is just as much reason to accept any of those theories as it is to accept our original one. Thus, the argument goes, we have no way of knowing whether our original theory is true, or one of the other “predictively equivalent” theories is true. SUGGESTED VIEWING How Occam's Razor changed the world With Johnjoe McFadden As an example of underdetermination, philosophers often offer this example. The evidence of fossils seems to provide reason to conclude that the universe is quite old; ancient fossils are what the “ancient universe” hypothesis predicts. But it’s also possible that God created an ancient-looking universe 200 years ago, complete with a “fake” fossil record for us to find, to make it look old. The existence of fossils is what that theory predicts too. So, the argument goes, the fossil record can’t be used as evidence that the universe is ancient; the fossil record supports the “200-year-old ancient-looking universe” theory just as much. The problem of underdetermination points out that, for any theory with supporting evidence, we could invent another completely different theory that predicts exactly the same evidence, and thus undermine that evidence’s ability to support the original theory.But this “argument from underdetermination” betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of what scientific reasoning is and how it works. To explain, let me use another rather strange (but very real and commonly discussed) philosophical thought experiment called “The Grue Problem.” The “Grue” ProblemSuppose I want to know what color emeralds are, so I observe a few, see that they all appear green, and form the theory that “all emeralds are green.” I thus predict that the next 100 emeralds I find will also appear to be green. And let’s say that happens, and so I thus conclude that my theory that all emeralds are green is true. Now, one might rightly point out that I don’t know for sure that all emeralds are green—I have not seen them all. Maybe some I haven’t found yet are blue. Fair enough. After all, we used to think that all swans were white, until we found some black ones. But let’s say that I go on a quest and collect every emerald in the universe—and, for the sake of the argument, let’s say I can do this, and can even know that I have every one of them. So, I collect them all, look at them all, and verify that they all appear green. Can’t I now rightly conclude that all emeralds are green?Inspired by the problem of underdetermination, a friend might argue that I cannot.Sure, they all appear green now—but there could be another kind of color called “grue.” Something is grue if it is green up to a certain point in time, but then spontaneously turns blue. And there could be an infinite number of “shades” of grue. Something that is one shade of grue will turn blue at noon today, but something that is another shade of grue will turn blue at noon tomorrow, etc. So yes, the emeralds appear green now; and since they haven’t turned blue yet, they are not some “past” shade of grue. But they might be some “future” shade of grue (e.g., they may turn blue at noon tomorrow). And since all future shades of grue are consistent with “being green up to this point in time,” the evidence you have is completely consistent with the notion that all emeralds are some future shade of grue, rather than green. Indeed, that they would appear green until now is what the “some future shade of grue” hypothesis predicts. So, we have just as much reason to conclude that all emeralds are some shade of grue as we do to conclude that they are green.You’re probably thinking “It’s not equally possible that the emeralds are grue; they are obviously green.” You are right! But explaining why your instinctive reaction to my friend’s argument is correct will help inform why van Fraassen’s “empiricist” is wrong and science actually does describe reality.The main mistake my friend makes is in thinking that the “empirical evidence” (of all the emeralds appearing green) is (or even should be) all I am using to draw the conclusion that all emeralds are green. It is not. I am also considering known facts about how colors typically work; things don’t usually change color, and when they do, they don’t do so suddenly, without cause, and all at once. So, even though the simple evidence of the emeralds all appearing green up to this point is consistent with them being some future shade of grue—that is even what the grue hypothesis “predicts”—it is still exceedingly unlikely that they are. The hypothesis that they are green is much more likely. Understanding science refutes the problem of underdetermination The misunderstanding about science that the “empiricist” pointing to “the problem of underdetermination” makes is similar to the one that my friend made. Science is not just about considering experimental evidence; in fact, it’s not even just about considering empirical evidence. As Ernan McMullin and many other philosophers of science have pointed out, the inference that makes science is “inference to the best explanation” (sometimes called “abduction” or “retroduction” by McMullin). While, depending on the circumstances, scientists use many different kinds of reasoning, science as a whole is, simply put, the process of considering multiple competing explanations and comparing them to certain criteria—explanatory criteria (the kinds of things explanations must be and do, by definition, to be a good explanation)—to see which explanation is the best.And these criteria do not deal only with empirical results. Yes, successful predictions raise the probability of a hypothesis, but it’s also the case that the more new assumptions a theory makes, the less likely it is to be true; every new assumption presents an opportunity for the theory to be false. (The fewer assumptions a theory makes, the simpler or “more parsimonious” it is said to be.) Likewise, the more existing evidence a theory contradicts, the less likely it is, because in order for a theory to be true, every piece of evidence it contradicts has to be somehow faulty. (The fewer established theories a new theory contradicts, the more “conservative” it is said to be.) And, obviously, the more something explains, the better explanation it is. (This is called having “scope.”) If a theory raises unanswerable questions, it’s not expanding our understanding, and thus is not wide-scoping. Scientists consider all these things when deciding which theory to accept, because the theory that adheres best to these explanatory criteria is most likely to be true.___the mere fact that a theory’s predictive success is why it “sticks around” or “becomes accepted” in the scientific community is not a reason to be skeptical about its truth.___The reason the grue hypothesis is no good is because it invents an entirely new kind of color—not just a new shade, but an entirely different category of color (a different way colors work)—and thus is not parsimonious. It raises unanswerable questions about how and why emeralds would just spontaneously change from green to blue (and thus does not have wide scope). And it contradicts what is already well established about how color works (and thus is unconservative).The theories that the problem of underdetermination points to do the same thing. Yes, the theory that God created an “ancient-looking universe” (complete with an ancient-looking fossil record) two hundred years ago is also consistent with the empirical evidence (of a fossil record) that presently exists; but that theory is monumentally unparsimonious (it requires many extra assumptions about infinite entities) and not wide-scoping (it raises unanswerable questions about why God would do such a thing). So, I can rationally conclude that it is false.Indeed, the history of science includes many examples of theories that were rejected because they lacked parsimony and/or scope, even before their falsity (and the truth of their competing theory) was confirmed by observation. As I point out in my book, geocentrism was rejected by the scientific community because it lacked parsimony, almost 200 years before the observation of parallax confirmed that the Earth moves around the sun. And the continuum theory of matter was completely rejected by 1860, because it couldn’t explain chemical reactions or organize matter into a periodic table, even though the experiments that eventually confirmed atomic theory weren’t even proposed until the 1870s. Solving the best of a bad lot problemIn response, the “empiricists” are likely to object, this time pointing to the “best of a bad lot” problem. “We have no reason to conclude that an explanation that has been shown to be better than others is true because we have no guarantee that the true theory was among those that we were considering.” If you have a “lot” (a collection) of poor explanations, even the best one is not true.The responses to this problem, however, are numerous. Peter Lipton argues that the set of hypotheses that scientists consider are not just randomly selected and thus unlikely to contain a theory that is true; they use existing knowledge to home in on what is most likely to be true. A doctor trying to explain abdominal pain is not going to bother wondering whether demons are causing it; they are going to stick with things like appendicitis and kidney stones, because they are most likely. Further, despite its name, inference to the best explanation is not just the process of comparing hypotheses and accepting the best one; we also want one that is a good explanation in its own right. If it’s not, we are going to keep looking until we find an explanation that is. And while that process does not guarantee that we will come across the exact truth, it’s very likely that the theory that emerges as the best will be at least approximately true, and thus we will be justified in believing it. And lastly, as I point out in my book, although many theories not based in scientific evidence (like geocentrism and continuum theory) have been completely overturned, science almost always progresses by the refinement of scientifically established theories—not their replacement. (Although our sun is not the center of the universe, heliocentrism was our first step in understanding the Earth’s true place in the universe.) So even if a theory we accept today may not be completely right, accepting it is a step on the journey toward the complete truth. The example of atomic theoryNow, it’s worth pointing out that most empiricists are not skeptical of all scientific theories; they are only skeptical of the ones that hypothesize the existence of “unobservables.” It’s not like they think that round Earth, heliocentrism, and germ theory are just useful (but untrue) “instruments” for making predictions about how to most efficiently navigate the seas, predict planetary motion, and treat diseases. They admit that the Earth actually is round, that the planets revolve around the sun, and that germs exist and cause disease. These facts and entities can be observed; the theories that suggest they exist are true. It’s only when theories start hypothesizing the existence of unobservables—like electrons, or quantum fields—that can’t be observed directly, that we should start doubting the theories’ truth. And to be fair to van Fraassen, in this published work, he doesn’t really say that we should doubt the truth of such theories. Only that scientific reasoning does not rationally force us to accept them as true. Skepticism, or agnosticism, he argues, is warranted. SUGGESTED READING Science is based in metaphor By Andrew Reynolds But the history of atomic theory throws a monkey wrench into that argument. Atoms used to be unobservable; again, scientists first accepted the theory that they exist because it had such grandiose explanatory power. But then atoms were seen with electron microscopes. They thus moved into the category of the observable. But this didn’t substantially change anything about what scientists were justified in believing; it certainly didn’t change any “atomic skeptics’” minds. It just confirmed what everyone already knew! If the hypothesis that something exists clearly provides the best explanation for what we can observe, then the belief that it exists is what is rational. The fact that the thing itself is not technically observable does not make doubting its existence rational.What’s more, the atoms were seen with an electron microscope. But electrons are themselves unobservable. How can an electron microscope reveal an atom if electrons are not real? This leads us to what is famously known as Hilary Putnam’s “miracle argument.” It’s (not) a miraclePhilosopher Hilary Putnam’s miracle argument is somewhat famous. Basically, he argued that a scientific theory being able to repeatedly make successful predictions—even about unobservables—without being at least approximately true would require a “miracle.” In other words, it would be such an improbable occurrence that it could not rationally be believed—the better explanation for why scientific theories about unobservables make the right predictions is because the unobservable entities and structures they hypothesize exist.Van Fraassen has addressed this argument. Indeed, in his original article, where he references Alison Gopnik’s point about orgasms not being “necessary for procreation” even though the desire for orgasm “drives the creation of progeny,” he is pointing to his own argument about how organisms are not naturally selected by evolution to get true beliefs; to the extent that belief-forming processes are selected for, the ones that are selected are the ones that are useful for survival—not the ones that produce true beliefs. In the same way, van Fraassen argues, scientific theories are accepted, not because they are true, but because they aren’t falsified; they make successful predictions; that’s what makes them “stick around.” So, the fact that they make successful predictions (and thus became accepted) is not a reason to think they are true.This argument is similar to C. S. Lewis’s “argument from reason,” which he used to argue against evolution: “The truth of evolution undercuts our ability to know that it is true.” Lewis’ argument famously failed; Elizabeth Anscombe, by Lewis’s own admission, demolished Lewis in a debate on the topic, and I have explained elsewhere why modified versions of the argument fail as well. In short, it’s because it fails to recognize that a belief-forming process can make an organism more likely to survive because it reliably produces true beliefs. It is therefore not the case that beliefs generated by naturally selected belief-forming processes are automatically false or unjustified.In the same way, the reason a theory “sticks around” could be because it’s not falsified, because it “makes correct predictions.” But the reason it makes correct predictions is most likely because it is true. (In pointing this out, I am echoing the arguments of Musgrave, Lipton, Psillos, and Kitcher, who refuted van Fraassen’s argument and analogy long before his 2024 article.) It would be a huge coincidence that it could do so without being true. And that is the point of Putnam’s miracle argument. Thus, contrary to van Fraassen’s suggestion, the mere fact that a theory’s predictive success is why it “sticks around” or “becomes accepted” in the scientific community is not a reason to be skeptical about its truth. ConclusionLet me close by saying something about the fact that empiricists don’t doubt the truth of all scientific theories, just the ones that hypothesize unobservables. In today’s society, this theory is dangerous to espouse publicly. The nuance between being skeptical about all of science, and just the highly technical theories about unobservables, is guaranteed to be lost to the average reader. And there is so much unjustified skepticism and doubt about the findings of science and experts that a headline like “Science Does Not Describe Reality” could easily fuel the anti-science movement, worsen climate change denial and cause the next pandemic.This is why I believe it was important to still respond to van Fraassen’s article, a full two years after he wrote it. Not only, as I have argued, does it represent a philosophically inaccurate view of how scientific reasoning works and what scientific reasoning can do, but it is a dangerous view to boot. It should thus be rejected.
Chicago Bears Midweek Musings: Phenomenal
Check out @gridironborn’s midweek musings, including thoughts on Case Keenum, Bears defense, Ben Johnson and more.
Postpartum mental health: Understanding the baby blues, postpartum depression and postpartum psychosis - Baylor College of Medicine Blog Network
Dr. Kimberly Samuels discusses postpartum baby blues, depression and psychosis and points out the warning signs.
Democrats eye Nebraska as an opportunity to take a Senate seat away from Republicans
Democrats hope they might be able to swipe both a Senate and a House seat from Republicans in this solidly red state.
Health inspectors find fruit flies, roaches, trapped mouse in Dearborn
Wayne County health inspectors found pests and temperature violations at several Dearborn restaurants recently.
Bears outplay and outcoach the Eagles
Hollywood couldn't have written a better script for Case Keenum and the Bears last night. @gridironborn and @wiltfongjr break it down here.
Dearborn business concerned about Michigan Avenue-Telegraph Road construction: "It's very difficult"
Dearborn business concerned about Michigan Avenue-Telegraph Road construction
Nursing Dean Carole Kenner participates in United Nations General Assembly health event
Carole Kenner, dean of the School of Nursing and Health Sciences at The College of New Jersey, participated in a United Nations General Assembly High-Level Week side event focused on strengthening collaboration across health professions to improve maternal, newborn, and child health. The event was held on September 21, 2026, in New York City. Titled […]
From a martini bar to a spot from a consulting chef on ‘The Bear,’ here are 6 new Chicago restaurants
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Pioneering work of CT-born scientist was long hidden. How the Matilda effect finally gave her credit
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A Tough Ad Reminds Nebraska Voters About a Brutal Crime and a Pardon
A group supporting Dan Osborn, the independent Senate candidate in Nebraska, is airing an ad attacking Senator Pete Ricketts, a Republican, for pardoning a man convicted of sexual assault.
Books bring business to Fairmont
FAIRMONT – Evermore Books is the newest business coming to Fairmont, with its grand opening happening from 2 to 7 p.m. on Wednesday at 72 Downtown Plaza. The store is run by Abby Shoen, who was born and raised in Sherburn, graduating from Martin County West in 2009. From there, she received her degree in […]
Health experts stress importance of newborn screening
Screenings look for rare but serious health conditions that may not present right away and detect concerns like metabolic, endocrine and blood disorders.
Florida’s health emergency is drawing attention to a growing mosquito threat
Florida has declared a health emergency after reporting 190 locally acquired dengue fever cases and one death, with experts warning the mosquito-borne illness may grow more common as climate conditions change.
I Never Thought “Explosive Diarrhea” Would Become a Reason to Vote Blue, but Here We Are
These foodborne illness outbreaks have certainly put the Republican party in a sh*tty situation.
Food Safety Finds a Place Among ‘Kitchen-Table’ Political Issues
By Stephanie Armour The run-up to the midterm elections is turning into a food fight — literally. The summer was marred by a massive foodborne outbreak that sickened scores of people and the recall of tens of thousands of pounds of imported meat, turning the safety of the U.S. food supply into a ...
Food Safety Finds a Place Among ‘Kitchen-Table’ Political Issues
By Stephanie Armour The run-up to the midterm elections is turning into a food fight — literally. The summer was marred by a massive foodborne outbreak that sickened scores of people and the recall of tens of thousands of pounds of imported meat, turning the safety of the U.S. food supply into a ...
From Mexico to Houston: Nurse turns side hustle into growing business
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Montana State students receive prestigious National Environmental Public Health internships
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Inter Move Ahead of Milan for Cagliari Forward Paul Mendy
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Generous paternal leave policies improve maternal and newborn health, family finances and workplace equality
Leave for the non-birthing parent after a new baby arrives gives the family an opportunity to bond.
Generous paternal leave policies improve maternal and newborn health, family finances and workplace equality
Leave for the non-birthing parent after a new baby arrives gives the family an opportunity to bond.
Food Safety Finds a Place Among ‘Kitchen-Table’ Political Issues
Recent outbreaks of foodborne illness and high-profile recalls have made this issue a concern of voters.
Food Safety Finds a Place Among ‘Kitchen-Table’ Political Issues
Recent outbreaks of foodborne illness and high-profile recalls have made this issue a concern of voters.
As World of Warcraft: Forever's beta popularity grows, Blizzard has yet again had to increase the server cap
Executive producer of World of Warcraft Holly Longdale broke the news, as people continue to hop in ahead of the beta release in November.
Newborn Planet Sets Record as Youngest Known World
Elias 2-24 b, a Jupiter-mass planet under a million years old, is the youngest world ever confirmed and is still growing in the disk around its star
Spain bring in Le Normand for injured Garcia
Spain coach Luis de la Fuente on Sunday called up centre-back Robin Le Normand to his Nations League squad following an injury to Eric Garcia ahead of the world champions' 3-2 win away to England.French-born Le Normand has not played for Spain in almost a year.
QB Drew Sheridan sees system fit, special atmosphere at Pitt
Pittsburgh had Dearborn (Mich.) Divine Child quarrterback Drew Sheridan on campus for an unofficial visit on Saturday. The junior signal-caller saw the Panthers defeat Bucknell. He had been to campus in the past, but this gameday visit allowed him a different experience than his previous trips.
Anthony Elanga, A Player Reborn at Newcastle Under Matthias Jaissle
Thriving within a high-intensity system, the Swedish winger has traded inconsistency for clinical finishing to become the explosive focal point of the Magpies’ revitalized attacking frontline.
‘It was a mistake.’ Tax theft tossed for Pierce County roofing company owners
The Washington Attorney General’s Office agreed to dismiss charges against the owners of JS Roofing, but the business will make restitution.
Bill introduced to support newborn health screenings
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Tulsa Health Department's Food Safety Measures Protect More than One Million People at the Tulsa State Fair
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Polanski heckled at Jewish community hustings after saying that Zionism is a form of racism
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North Carolina restores perinatal program after Medicaid funding dispute delayed research
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Kyle MacLachlan analyzes his ‘Fictional Selves’ in new memoir
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“The View” star Alyssa Farah Griffin details 3-month-old baby’s skull surgery, says newborn will wear helmet for 1 year
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'Forgotten Island' review: DreamWorks delivers an epic adventure for weirdos
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New Jersey highlights newborn screening program, public health laboratory work
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Opinion: Kobach's politics of tragedy underline our nation's immigrant crime double standard
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Bipartisan bill would expand federal maternal health programs, research and rural care
The Mothers and Newborns Success Act would put more federal money into maternal care.
New Jersey Department of Health Celebrates Newborn Screening Awareness Month, Public Health Laboratory Appreciation Month and Continues to Lead Robust Newborn Screening Efforts Statewide
New Jersey Department of Health Celebrates Newborn Screening Awareness Month, Public Health Laboratory Appreciation Month and Continues to Lead Robust Newborn Screening Efforts Statewide
UT celebrates groundbreaking for 865 Neyland Entertainment District
University of Tennessee, Knoxville, leadership and community partners gathered Sept. 19 to break ground for construction of the 865 Neyland entertainment district. Located between Neyland Stadium and Thompson-Boling Arena at […]
2026 NFL Mexico City pregame entertainment announced
The NFL announced that acclaimed Música Mexicana artist Majo Aguilar and Oakland-born Blaxicana singer-songwriter MXKA will perform the national anthems of Mexico and the United States prior to the 2026 NFL Mexico City Game
Monster Hunter Wilds: Ascendance Is the Iceborne-Like Adrenaline Boost That Wilds Needed
The first taste of Monster Hunter Wilds: Ascendance already has me salivating. The new tricks, new (and returning) monsters, and brand new suite of boosts are going to significantly disrupt how I do my builds, and how I approach hunts. Just thinking about it now has my synapses firing, and there are still so many weapons who're boosted actions I have yet to try, and who knows what new armor set bonuses might be ahead of us. The endgame of Monster Hunter Wilds was too easy, but this might be what Monster Hunter sickos are looking for.
Using archery to help first responders with mental health support
Initiative born from 2024 ambush that killed four officers now taking shape with outdoor therapy approach
Using archery to help first responders with mental health support
Initiative born from 2024 ambush that killed four officers now taking shape with outdoor therapy approach
Using archery to help first responders with mental health support
Initiative born from 2024 ambush that killed four officers now taking shape with outdoor therapy approach
AI Boom, Politics, Inflation Stoke Anxiety Across Big Law
AI’s ascendance, polarized politics, and stubborn inflation are weighing down legal professionals, survey shows.
Svilar completes 81.2% saves and decisive interventions
Mile Svilar is an absolute must for Roma. Gian Piero Gasperini knows that if the defense leaves too much space for opposing attackers, the 1999-born player is ready to intervene to stem any threat. De...
Felipe Melo
Some people are born leaders, or become them when the occasion calls for it.At the beginning of his career, Roberto Mancini favoured a purely technical midfield. At Inter, too, we saw Figo, Cambiasso,...
Michelle Zauner of Japanese Breakfast has a new memoir
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Dearborn mall heads to auction with one bidder
Court documents say the mall’s value is “substantially less than the outstanding indebtedness owed."
Bryson’s story: Penn State Health delivers coordinated care for Lancaster family
After newborn Bryson Geiss was transferred to Penn State Health Golisano Children’s Hospital for specialized NICU care, he recovered quickly and went home with his family just two days later.
Humpback whale mother may have mourned her dead calf for days
Researchers observed a humpback whale mother staying beside her presumed stillborn calf for hours and possibly days off Australia’s Gold Coast. She maintained eye contact and remained close to the calf in behavior resembling caregiving and nurturing. Scientists say the rare observation may provide new insight into grief, maternal attachment, and emotional complexity in humpback whales.
Is 50 the new 60?
Subscribe TL;DR: Younger generations are showing signs of worse health compared to earlier-born cohorts at the same age This backward “drift” is showing up both in mortality risk and chronic disease Worsening trends in obesity and diabetes are the most consistent signals Taking the long view, we’ve made astonishing gains in health and life expectancy in the last century. Global average life expectancy has more than doubled from 32 years in 1900 to 73 years in 2024. (But don’t forget, there were still old people when life expectancy was 32). As people lived longer, they also generally lived healthier along the way. It turns out that avoiding things that can kill you early, like malnutrition and lots of childhood infections, also keeps you healthier later in life. In a classic 2004 paper, Finch and Crimmins proposed that cohorts of children who benefited from fewer early life infections had less lifetime exposure to inflammation and cardiovascular disease later in life, accelerating mortality improvements at older ages. Poor nutrition in the womb has also been linked to a higher risk of later chronic disease. The upshot is that improvements in childhood health can pay dividends many decades later. The combination of better living conditions (nutrition, sanitation) and medical advances (antibiotics, vaccines, blood pressure meds, etc) meant that people’s healthy lifespan generally expanded, even as they lived longer. Aging researchers call this best-case scenario “compression of morbidity”—meaning we delay the onset of disease and disability even faster than the years of life we are adding. During my 20+ year research career, we could generally bank on the idea that younger generations would not only live longer but also keep getting healthier along the way. “60 is the new 50” as they say… Enter “Generational Health Drift” Sadly, this expectation of steady progress may be changing. You’ve probably heard that US life expectancy gains have slowed to a crawl in the past couple of decades. Mortality improvements are also slowing (though less dramatically) in many other high-income countries (you can read more about that in a review paper I wrote here). Mortality is a very blunt health measure, but it is often a good barometer for the broader population health trends happening underneath. And we are now seeing that younger generations may be in worse health at similar ages compared to earlier born cohorts. My collaborator Prof. George Ploubidis at University College London coined this worsening health in more recently born cohorts “generational health drift.” “Generational health drift” is bad news on multiple fronts. Most obviously, we don’t want our health progress to go backward. But the timing is also bad, since our populations are aging. In demographic terms, “population aging” means that the proportion of the population at older ages (i.e >65 years) is increasing. Fun demography fact: Current population aging is not due to the recent declines in the birth rates making the news, but declines in fertility decades ago, after the “baby boom.” As baby boomers reach older ages, the smaller cohorts behind them mean the percentage of older adults will increase. For example, the share of the population age 65 and older in the US increased from 12.4% in 2004 to 18.0% in 2024. This story of population aging was written long ago. Many worry that population aging will put pressure on health care and pension systems. But if people reach older ages in better health than in years past, those fiscal pressures would be less dire than projected. Healthy older people can also continue to contribute to society in many valuable ways, including paid work, caregiving, community service….even high political office 🤷. On the flip side, if younger generations reach retirement age in worse health and with more disabling conditions, this could magnify the societal challenge of population aging. Evidence for worsening generational health A recent paper that I LOVED in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by Dr. Leah Abrams and colleagues examined which birth cohorts (aka generations) were behind worsening US mortality. Behold the Lexis diagram (cue swooning demographers). Calendar time is on the x-axis, age on the y-axis. Birth cohorts can be followed over time as they age on the diagonal lines moving up and to the right. This figure plots the year-on-year % change in all-cause mortality at a given age. Green shading indicates mortality improvements over time, white is stagnation, and gray shading indicates worsening mortality. Following the diagonal line for those born in 1950, you can see a noticeable shift from green to gray that follows this cohort for most of their lives. This gray shading shows generally worsening mortality for the 1950 to 1959 birth cohorts compared to their predecessors across all ages. Concerningly for my GenX and elder millennial peeps, there was also a deterioration in mortality for birth cohorts born in the 1970s and 1980s, visible as dark gray areas at ages 30 to 45 during the 2010s. While some of these mortality changes reflect specific shocks such as the opioid epidemic, most deaths still occur from major causes of death such as cardiovascular disease and cancer. For cancer, the gray in the top left corner of the figure below reflects the legacies of smoking for older cohorts, followed by a period of green with improvements in cancer mortality as smoking rates declined. But the white/gray shading in the bottom right corner highlights a stagnation and reversal of the cancer trends, with cohorts born around 1970 to 1985 experiencing worsening cancer mortality. This deterioration was most noticeable for colon cancer mortality, possibly linked to obesity or dietary factors. Not just dying more, but less healthy along the way. A recent paper by Dr. Laura Gimeno of University College London (of which I am a co-author), found evidence that more recently born cohorts in Great Britain have stagnating or worsening health. A stylized picture of what“generational health drift” might look like: The review paper found: Rates of childhood overweight and obesity were highest among Gen Z. Rates of diabetes in the 40s almost doubled from 3.1% among the Baby Boomers to 5.9% in Generation X. Gen Z reported higher rates of poor mental health in adolescence compared to earlier-born groups. These UK results are consistent with studies showing worsening health across generations in the US as well. A 2021 US study found that more recently born cohorts had worse biological markers (like blood pressure and blood sugar) than earlier generations at the same age. A separate 2022 study of Americans aged 50 and over found that more recently born generations had a higher number of chronic diseases, with younger age of disease onset. A 2024 Lancet paper found that in the US, women born in 1945 had 33% obesity prevalence at age 50, rising to 48.2% for women born in 1970 turning 50. So what’s going on, and can we turn it around? We don’t have a definitive answer for what’s causing the deteriorating health of younger cohorts, but circumstantial evidence points to worsening trends in obesity and diabetes in both the US and UK. Remember that cohort trends reflect lagged effects of early environments, and younger generations have faced both earlier onset and more severe obesity across their lifetimes. Despite these very concerning trends, the future is not set in stone. We’ve reversed poor generational health trends before: drops in smoking are a major reason cancer and heart disease deaths fell so dramatically in recent decades. GLP-1 drugs may finally turn the tide against rising rates of obesity and diabetes, though it is still early days. But things could also get worse…for example from a return to higher levels of childhood infectious diseases that can have a lasting impact on health. See for example: [ ](https://jenndowd.substack.com/p/dont-you-forget-about-measles-the) [ Don’t You Forget About Me(asles): The Virus That Erases Immune Memory ](https://jenndowd.substack.com/p/dont-you-forget-about-measles-the) Jenn Dowd, PhD · March 24, 2025 [ Read full story ](https://jenndowd.substack.com/p/dont-you-forget-about-measles-the) Even as an optimist, emerging data on the “generational health drift” has my full attention. For most of my research career, we took it for granted that each generation would be healthier than the last. But if present trends continue, **50 could be the new 60….**and Gen Z celebrities will soon look older than Paul Rudd :). Stay well, Jenn Share the Health! If you found this post useful, please share it with a friend. Share
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