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Study shows benefits of coffee for liver health
Cleveland Clinic hepatologist Dr. Nizar Zein was not part of the study, but says it showed that people who drank five or more cups a day had a 32% lower risk of cirrhosis, a 47% lower risk of liver cancer and a 42% lower risk of liver-related death compared to those who didn't drink coffee a lower risk of cirrhosis.
Park Coffee House opens fall concert season
Park Coffee House in Holland Patent will open its fall concert season with the Mohawk Valley Bluegrass Band and acoustic duo 2 Friends.
Area Events & Entertainment Community Calendar
Sept. 10 - Veterans Coffee & Conversation at the Eagles Club - begins at 10 a.m. Sept. 10 - Karaoke at Hy-Da Way at 8:30 p.m. Sept. 12 - Fall Night Market, live music by Kristen Amber Music …
The best movies we saw at the 2026 Toronto Film Festival, ranked
That loud sound you're hearing in the movie world? It's Oscar buzz combined with the whirr of Tim Hortons coffee machines.
Study Shows Benefits of Coffee for Liver Health
Good news for coffee lovers. A recent study found coffee could offer some health benefits for the liver. A hepatologist explains more about the research.
The best movies we saw at 2026 Toronto Film Festival, ranked
That loud sound you're hearing in the movie world? It's Oscar buzz combined with the whirr of Tim Horton's coffee machines.
Postpartum politics: What it means to run for government as a new mum
Victorian Greens candidates Nina Crawley and Lini Fernando reflect on their experiences running a political campaign just months after giving birth. From the challenges and compromises to the support networks that wrapped around them, and why showing up vulnerably in public space matters. Subscribe In 2024, when my second child was four months old, I decided to run for local government. Fast forward two years, I am again four months postpartum, with my third child, and this time running in the state election. But this time has hit differently. Going through pregnancy, birth and postpartum while being a political candidate has had a more profound and personal impact than I ever expected. I reached out to my fellow Greens candidate for the state election, Lini Fernando, who gave birth 20 days before me, and her experience closely mirrored mine. Postpartum has its own unique challenges that we’ve not seen reflected in stories about women running for office. When people discuss the “juggle”, they’re usually talking about the practical mechanics of looking after small children - childcare arrangements, pumping schedules and logistics. As mums of multiple children, we were both aware of the logistical changes and difficulties that accompany giving birth and the months after. We assumed that combining this with running for election would be hard, but that we could organise our way out of any problems. What neither of us anticipated was the intense vulnerability that comes with putting yourself into the spotlight of a state election campaign at a time when you are physically exhausted and navigating things like breastfeeding and feeling like a stranger in your own body. There have been challenges that neither of us anticipated. Firstly, needing to buy new clothes because the supportive leggings that are a staple of the postpartum wardrobe weren’t going to cut it for community events. Lini held her first fundraiser - a trivia night - just three weeks postpartum. A business-casual wardrobe, several sizes bigger than pre-baby, was needed, and fast. As women, how we look is closely scrutinised, and the internalised fatphobia is loud. We are conditioned from our earliest days to believe that our appearance is tied to our worth, and taught how we are allowed to show up in public. Women who dare to put themselves into the spotlight also receive more abuse than their male counterparts, including criticism of their appearance. To stand in front of members of your community and try to convince them that you’re the best person to represent them in parliament is a challenge in and of itself. To do it with leaking breasts, a pelvic floor that could betray you at the first sign of a sneeze, a body that still feels unfamiliar, and with half your hair falling out (hello postpartum hair loss!) is another thing altogether. It requires courage, allowing yourself the grace to be vulnerable in public, and the belief that showing up, however imperfectly, matters. And the vulnerability isn’t just physical; it also includes factors like having to ask a campaign team to accommodate the realities of having a baby. Asking for help is hard, and it’s a skill that both new parents and hopeful political candidates need to become comfortable with. Parents understand the disappointment that comes when a call for help or connection is rebuffed, like a friend cancelling a much-needed coffee. That rejection is amplified for political candidates calling dozens of people each week. Many people don’t realise running for Parliament, when you aren’t the incumbent, is a volunteer role supported largely by other volunteers who have to squeeze volunteering in around their paid work. Calls need to be made and meetings held after work hours - usually during “witching hour” (5-8 pm), that special time of night when babies cry for no reason. I found that I was struggling to make these commitments, or having to tap out and ask for them to be rearranged. When I spoke to Lini, we realised that she had had a similar experience, this push-pull of being the candidate and wanting to show our faces at meetings and help recruit new volunteers at ‘calling parties’, but also being the only people who could settle our newborns. Sometimes we could merge the two worlds; Lini and I realised that we had both attended 7:30pm meetings online, sitting in a dark room, struggling though breastfeeding and settling our babies. Although we’re both committed to breaking the stigma around breastfeeding, it can be hard to keep your composure while trying to feed a young baby as they try to latch, spew and fuss. Ultimately, Lini and I agreed that showing up vulnerably in public space matters. Leaders should possess empathy and understanding for those who feel raw and in transition; from the dad who just got evicted to the teen who acquired a disability - anyone who feels they aren’t the version of themselves they expected right now. The patriarchy tries to tell us otherwise, but women shouldn’t have to wait until they’re ‘recovered’, no longer vulnerable, before they feel entitled to participate in public life. In fact, we could all benefit from our leaders being a little more vulnerable. *This piece was cowritten, but has been presented in the first person for the sake of style. About the authors Nina Crawley is former teacher and community organiser who now works in human rights and inequality advocacy for a non-profit. She’s a mother of three keen to get back to running as soon as her pelvic floor allows! She’s contesting the seat of Ivanhoe for the Greens in this year’s state election. Lini Fernando is a lawyer working in diverse areas of law including anti corruption and public law. She’s a mother of two and a gardening and good policy enthusiast. She is currently contesting the seat of Croydon for the Greens in this year’s state election. Thanks for reading Cheek Media Co. ! This post is public so feel free to share it. Share
UA Business Spotlight: Coffee + Cone
Coffee and ice cream may seem like an unexpected pairing, but at Coffee + Cone at the Mallway, the combination is exactly what makes this new Upper Arlington business stand out. Located at 1966 North
New Business: Paradise Coffee owners bring grab-and-go options to Point Tiburon Plaza
Paradise Coffee at Point Tiburon Plaza in Tiburon sells Cubano sandwiches, breakfast burritos and bonbons from a Tiburon chocolatier.
Cafecito coffee shop opens brick-and-mortar in Old Louisville
Family-run Cafecito coffee shop opens at 1212 Oak St. in Old Louisville after launching as a food truck in 2023.
Philz Coffee workers in California file to form union to negotiate new contract
The notice was delivered Tuesday
Group of bikini baristas win nearly $2M in legal battle
Former bikini baristas at five coffee stands in the Puget Sound region say they were paid below minimum wage and forced to turn over earnings to keep up with strict
Coffee chain announces Derby expansion plans
Kansas-based coffee chain Mokas recently announced it has signed a nine-unit franchise development deal with Cornerstone Hospitality, led by veteran entrepreneurs Brice Turner and Jeff Bennett. The deal includes plans
A 1920s Glenside bowling alley gets a new lease on life as a bustling micro-mall
The new micro-mall has coffee, vinyl records, yoga — and an antique bowling lane floor.
Meet the founder: 23-year-old coffee shop owner puts it all online
Pertinacious Coffee founder translates relatability online into sales.
Bubba holds forth on health, headlines and Hogs
Bubba McCoy reports for Labor Day that his blood pressure is down thanks to medicine, beet juice that's tastier than you think, an elimination of salt, a steep reduction in booze and coffee, and to the fact that he doesn't pay a bit of attention to politics anymore.
Bubba holds forth on health, headlines and Hogs
Bubba McCoy reports for Labor Day that his blood pressure is down thanks to medicine, beet juice that's tastier than you think, an elimination of salt, a steep reduction in booze and coffee, and to the fact that he doesn't pay a bit of attention to politics anymore.
What's brewing: Rockwell teens operate new coffee business
ROCKWELL — Coffee is served. That and a wide variety of other treats can be found at Sweet Sippers Caffeine Club, a new coffee business in Rockwell operated by siblings, […]
Your daily coffee habit could be taking a toll on your bones, new study suggests
A Flinders University study links high coffee consumption to lower bone density in postmenopausal women, while tea's catechins may promote bone health.
Three businesses near Bishop Arts were burglarized on the same morning
Mentiiras, Wayward Coffee and Outpost Fine Goods in Dallas' Bishop Arts neighborhood reported break-ins about 15 minutes apart.
Three businesses near Bishop Arts were burglarized on the same morning
Mentiiras, Wayward Coffee and Outpost Fine Goods in Dallas' Bishop Arts neighborhood reported break-ins about 15 minutes apart.
New Business Licenses: 9.4.26
This week's list from Chesterfield and Henrico include restaurants, coffee shops, a salon and more. (BizSense Pro required)
Science: Cockroach Milk Called Theoretically Superior
The reporting on cockroach theoretical milk makes perfect sense: Cockroach milk is among the most nutritious substances on Earth. It’s three times richer in calories than buffalo milk (the previous top contender for the most protein- and calorie-rich milk). …it tasted like pretty much nothing. You could, in theory, splash it into coffee or pour … Continue reading Science: Cockroach Milk Called Theoretically Superior →
Coffee brand gets a head start: How UTC's Veterans Entrepreneurship Program helped one veteran take the next steps - Gary W. Rollins College of Business
Veterans Entrepreneurship Program helped Durand Henderson pivot from military service to startup coffee roaster.
Cape Girardeau coffee shop closure highlights small business struggles
Downtown business owners said The Ground-a-Bout closure reflects a troubling trend and pointed to a lack of foot traffic in the area.
Cape Girardeau coffee shop closure highlights small business struggles
The owner of The Groundabout announced on social media Monday that all four of its shops are closing, including its cafe on Broadway in downtown Cape Girardeau. Other downtown business owners said the closure reflects a troubling trend and pointed to a lack of foot traffic in the area.
A coffee-table-size scorpion roamed Earth before forests existed
A meter-long scorpion with massive pincers stalked ancient Britain 415 million years ago, long before forests and the better-known age of giant insects. Its surprising size and possible semi-aquatic lifestyle could reshape ideas about how early arthropods became giants.
Too much coffee may weaken bones, study finds
Following nearly 10,000 older women for 10 years, researchers found that tea drinking was associated with slightly higher hip bone density. Moderate coffee consumption did not appear harmful, but drinking more than five cups a day was linked to lower bone density. The findings suggest tea may offer a small bone-health boost, while excessive coffee could carry some drawbacks.
Ernst Names Small Business of the Week, The Bread Board
Read the release on Sen. Ernst's website HERE. Throughout this Congress, Chair Ernst plans to recognize a small business in every one of Iowa’s 99 counties. RED OAK, Iowa – U.S. Senator Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), Chair of the Senate Small Business Committee, today announced her Small Business of the Week: The Bread Board of Marion County. Throughout the 119th Congress, Chair Ernst plans to recognize a small business in each of Iowa's 99 counties. “The Bread Board has risen to the occasion, growing from Heidi’s passion for baking into a thriving Pella bakery that brings people together,” said Chair Ernst. “From serving fresh sourdough and homemade meals to supporting local businesses, schools, and community events, Heidi and her team have proven they have the perfect recipe for success.” Heidi Rozenboom grew up baking fresh bread alongside her grandmother, always using the same bread board that would eventually inspire her business’ name. Years later, Heidi started selling fresh bread to local coffee shops and cafes. As demand grew, she opened her storefront in downtown Pella in 2021 and named her bakery the Bread Board. Today, the Bread Board serves fresh sourdough bread, pastries, homemade meals, and other baked goods. Stay tuned as Chair Ernst continues to recognize outstanding Iowa small businesses with her Small Business of the Week award. ###
Pearlsnap Picnic opens in Jones Center
An approximately 2,500-square-foot café recently opened at the Jones Center in Springdale. Pearlsnap Picnic is a coffee and smoothie bar co-owned by Leo Orpin and Corinna Rose. “We partner with...
Pearlsnap Picnic opens in Jones Center
An approximately 2,500-square-foot café recently opened at the Jones Center in Springdale. Pearlsnap Picnic is a coffee and smoothie bar co-owned by Leo Orpin and Corinna Rose. “We partner with...
City Watch Coffee owner detained by ICE, faces deportation to Cambodia
Ratha San, co-owner of the popular City Watch Coffee, faces deportation by ICE. His wife shares the impact it's having on his family and the business.
Coke Zero 400 brings business boost to Daytona Beach
The Coke Zero 400 is set to bring a major business boost to Daytona Beach, with restaurants, coffee shops and hotels preparing for a rush.
Dolly Parton biopic, coffee brand and dog treats among star's upcoming business projects
"Dolly worked up until the day she died," her manager says, as her upcoming projects are revealed.
‘It feels amazing.’ Port Matilda area now has its own coffee shop after community support
“This shop wouldn’t be here without the support that everyone in and around Port Matilda has given us,” owner Salina Swancer said.
Dolly Parton's business empire lives on. What's still to come?
The entertainer was still working until her final days, with a hotel, museum, coffee line and other ventures in motion. Here's what comes next.
Sarasota entrepreneur turns mobile bar idea into coastal pop-up business
Sarasota Sips offers coffee, matcha and bartending service for events across the Suncoast
Gen Z Is Wearing the Same Watch as Your Grandmother and It's Become the Most Coveted Accessory of Summer 2026
You glance down at your wrist and see a notification about your sleep score, a reminder to stand up, and three unread texts – all before you have even finished your morning coffee. At some point, the thing on your wrist stopped being an accessory and became a tiny taskmaster. But what if the most...
‘This is my place of business’ — cakes and coffee in an age of rage
This coffee shop owner is probably within his rights. Yet it must also be acknowledged what Sheehan is doing is far more extreme than what Jack Phillips did in the Masterpiece Cakeshop case.
Area Events & Entertainment Community Calendar
Aug. 20 - Gazebo Nights at Normal Park - Opening act opens at 5 p.m., headliner Blindside plays at 6 p.m. Aug. 20 - Veterans Coffee & Conversation at the Eagles Club - begins at 10 a.m. Aug. 20 - …
On Demand — Health on the Plains Coffee Hour, Featuring Floribella Redondo-Martinez
On Aug. 19, KHI hosted Floribella Redondo-Martinez, B.S., for a conversation about community health workers.
Entertainment Listings: August 21-23
FRIDAYWake the Dead Coffee HouseFree Range Farmers MarketFriday, August 21, 9 a.m. - 1 p.m.Wake the Dead Coffee HouseStewartsplosionFriday, August 21, 7 p.m.Riley’s TavernThe HomebodiesFriday, August 21, 6 p.m.Riley’s Tavern
Canton coffee shop owner chasing business pitch title
Lindsey King of Walkie Talkie Espresso and Coffee is a finalist in a pitch competition hosted by the Cleveland chapter of Les Dames d’Escoffier.
The trajectory of Dwolla
Around the end of 2010, a new company in Des Moines spread its wings and made an announcement at Mars Cafe. The company was called Dwolla and it would be entering a new era: mobile payments. Daniel Bosman, the owner of Daisy Chain Coffee in the East Village, was an employee at Mars Cafe at…
Coffee drinkers have less fat, more muscle, and surprising hormone differences
Coffee drinkers may be getting more than an energy boost. A Finnish study found that people who drank more coffee tended to have less total and abdominal fat, more muscle, and healthier metabolic markers despite having similar BMIs. Higher coffee intake was also linked to lower levels of certain amino acids associated with insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes risk.
When AI meets global health: Who governs, who benefits and what works?
As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes increasingly embedded in health systems worldwide, questions about how these technologies should be governed, evaluated, and implemented have become as consequential as the technologies themselves. Across a four-part virtual discussion series convened by the Harvard Global Health Institute (HGHI) in partnership with the Center for Bioethics at Harvard Medical School this spring, experts from academia, multilateral organizations, government, philanthropy, and civil society examined the opportunities, challenges, and key questions shaping AI’s role in global health.
T.O.L.K. café mixes art and coffee, tackles NYC business costs
Ilia and Liliia Penzina's T.O.L.K. café in Bushwick blends art and coffee. Despite financial issues, they remain committed to their NYC business.
Area Events & Entertainment Community Calendar
Aug. 13 - Gazebo Nights at Normal Park - Opening act opens at 5 p.m., headliners Road Trip plays at 6 p.m. Aug. 13 - Veterans Coffee & Conversation at the Eagles Club - begins at 10 a.m. Aug. 13 …
Rio Rancho teen opens mobile coffee and matcha business
RIO RANCHO, N.M. (KRQE) – A coffee trailer in Rio Rancho is getting attention, including for its owner, a 17-year-old teen who started the mobile business just a few months ago, and it already has …
Business picking up steam at Fall River's new Mill & Roast Coffee Co.
Mill & Roast Coffee is quietly creating a buzz in Fall River, a new spot with handcrafted coffees and tasty treats.
'Very Unexpected': NASA Rover Zapped a Rock on Mars And Found a Gemstone Surprise
How did it get there?
Drive-through coffee truck opens for business in Manchester
A mother and son have opened a mobile coffee business in Manchester, bringing specialty drinks to Clay County residents. Donna and Jordan Jackson launched the Mountain Mug Coffee Truck on Tuesday.
Has science finally made up its mind about coffee’s health benefits?
Doctors used to warn coffee drinkers. Now research reassures them
The U.S. Healthcare System is Already Mostly Socialized
Now that Abdul El-Sayed is the Democratic nominee for Michigan’s open Senate seat, the outcome of this crucial race will depend mainly on two things: Whether Republicans succeed in demonizing El-Sayed because he’s brown and a Muslim, and whether they succeed in demonizing him as a left-wing radical. I will defer for the now the question of whether bigotry will be effective this year, although I will address it another day. What I want to address instead is El-Sayed’s signature issue — healthcare. Yes, El-Sayed advocates Medicare for All, a position the usual suspects denounce as “socialism.” I will get to the politics of his stance soon. Today, however, I want to talk about the substance. We should be clear that El-Sayed doesn’t even call himself a socialist. On the contrary, he explicitly disavows the label, saying “I’m a capitalist who just knows about capitalism”. In fact, as I explained in a previous post, the policies that El-Sayed advocates qualify him as a social democrat, not a socialist. Still, El-Sayed advocates a system under which the government would pay almost all medical expenses. Isn’t that socialism? Well, if that is the criterion then much of U.S. healthcare is already socialist. In fact, the government’s role is so large that U.S. healthcare is better described as partially privatized socialism than as anything resembling a free market. Let’s start with the raw numbers on health insurance, which pays the bulk of Americans’ medical expenses. Americans receive health insurance either from private companies or from public programs, overwhelmingly Medicare and Medicaid. Here’s what the breakdown of coverage and spending between private and public looked like in 2024: While a majority of Americans with health insurance get it from private companies, well over 100 million of us are covered by government programs instead. And these government programs pay more total dollars for medical bills than the private insurers do. Why do government programs that cover a minority of the population account for a majority of health insurers’ outlays? Mainly because Medicare covers seniors, and we’re expensive. Also, while Medicaid covers many younger Americans, disabled and elderly beneficiaries account for most of its spending. Even by the raw numbers, then, U.S. health insurance looks as much public as private. But that understates the government’s role: Private health insurance in the U.S. is both highly regulated and heavily subsidized. This is obviously true for the insurance coverage purchased by tens of millions of Americans through the exchanges established by the Affordable Care Act. But employment-based health insurance, which covers 161 million Americans, is far more of a government creation than most people realize. For employment-based insurance exists largely because of huge implicit government subsidies that come with major strings attached. Here’s how that works. If your employer pays you $10,000, that’s taxable income. But if your employer pays $10,000 toward a company health insurance plan that meets certain criteria, it isn’t taxable. That’s a huge effective subsidy, running at more than $300 billion a year. Take that subsidy into account, along with the more than $100 billion per year spent subsidizing policies purchased under the ACA, as well as the outlays on Medicare and Medicaid, and net effect is that the government pays for more than two-thirds of Americans’ health insurance. Granted, there are strings attached. Roughly speaking, employment-based health plans can’t discriminate based on medical history — that is, they can’t deny coverage to employees with pre-existing conditions — and they also can’t offer the plans only to highly compensated employees — a health plan that is only for the C-suite is considered taxable income. So given the restrictions of the federal tax code, employer-based health insurance is a lot like Obamacare, which also prohibits discrimination based on medical history and provides subsidies to make insurance affordable to lower-paid workers. The fact is that virtually all of private healthcare insurance is already well under some form of government control through regulation and tax subsidies. How should we think about this system? First of all, is Medicare socialist? Don’t tell anyone, but the way Medicare operates — it covers every senior’s medical expenses, whatever they turn out to be, while being funded by taxes that depend on one’s income — could be summarized by the old Marxist slogan “From each according to his ability, to each according to his need.” And back in 1961, when Ronald Reagan was the face of a last-ditch effort by the American Medical Association to block the creation of Medicare, he denounced Medicare as “socialized medicine” and warned that it would destroy our freedom. In reality, American freedom survived until Jan. 20, 2025, while Medicare is immensely popular, with an 82 percent favorable rating in the most recent KFF survey. Medicaid, government health insurance for lower-income Americans, comes in at 73 percent. This is in sharp contrast to public views about private insurers, who are widely disliked if not hated and accused of denying essential care. Furthermore, if Medicare is socialism, then the whole U.S. health insurance system, with the government paying most of the bills and placing conditions on private insurers, is almost equally socialist. If you insist on calling any program the government pays for and regulates socialist, then U.S. healthcare would best be described as a partially privatized form of socialism. And one must ask, what is the point of the part that is privatized? Do private insurers add anything positive? Or are they simply parasites, skimming off money that could have been paying for care? The case for viewing insurers as parasites is strong. Many Medicare benefits are now delivered via Medicare Advantage, that is, plans paid for by the government but run through insurance companies. MedPAC, an independent advisory commission, estimates that last year Medicare Advantage plans were overpaid by $84 billion, thanks to practices such as “upcoding,” in which patients’ health problems are overstated to get larger sums from Medicare. Assessing the waste from employer-based insurance is harder, but most evidence suggests that private insurers have substantially higher administrative costs than Medicare does. Furthermore, the complexity of private insurance, with multiple payers all trying to deny care when they can, is a huge burden both on providers — doctors, nurses, and hospitals — and on patients. What do private insurers offer to compensate for these costs? One must go through intellectual contortions to avoid the conclusion that they are, in fact, parasites. Which brings me back to El-Sayed. In supporting Medicare for All, he’s basically calling for an end to the partial, parasitic privatization of a healthcare system that is already hugely dependent on public funding. When one looks at it that way, it’s not at all a radical proposal. Admittedly, the political lift requires overcoming the opposition to higher taxes to pay for Medicare for All. Political realism rather than economics was the reason I and many other progressives supported Obamacare, with all its complexities, rather than demanding an immediate move to Medicare for All. But the political calculus may very well have shifted since the 2000s, as Americans are fed up with a system of unaffordable premiums, rampant claim denials, and byzantine claim administration. Moreover, funding healthcare insurance through taxation would allow for a much more progressive distribution of the cost. That is, compared to the present system, middle-income households would pay less as high-income households would pay more. And the U.S. would stop wasting large sums on pointless administrative costs. So let’s be clear: El-Sayed’s healthcare platform is perfectly reasonable on the merits of cost, fairness and health efficacy. And with private insurers never more hated, while millions of Americans are losing their health insurance, 2026 may be its time. MUSICAL CODA
Business Monday: Multigenerational farm Lions Gate Coffee looking for new owners
The Lions Gate turnkey sale offers established distribution across the mainland and internationally, along with name-brand recognition.
What RTO personality type are you?
Every office has its RTO personalities: the coffee badgers, the midweek warriors, and the 5-day faithfuls.
Roundup: CC’s drive-thru / Meta ordered to pay / ‘Basic business class’
Coffee in a hurry: CC’s Coffee House is opening its first drive-thru-only location at 319 W. Highway 30 in Gonzales on Aug. 8, offering a faster way for customers to enjoy coffee, breakfast and other menu favorites. The new store, located just off Interstate 10, will have a grand opening celebration Aug. 10-13 featuring daily […]
Coffee and heart health: Why cardiologists’ view of caffeine has shifted
Black coffee and heart health: What a new study says about your daily cup
Study finds black coffee can have a good impact on your heart.
Chartbook 464 The"China squeeze" - the politics of development counterfactuals.
There are three types of China shock discourse. Each has a distinct temporal register. China shock 1.0 was a phrase coined by US academics in the 2010s to retrospectively summarize the impact on particular US labour markets, which they identified through painstaking empirical investigation. China shock 2.0 on everyone’s lips in Europe in the mid 2020s is an alarm raised by trans-Atlantic policy thinkers warning of a coming disaster which they project onto Europe’s ailing car industry. The third type of China shock discourse - commonly known as the “China squeeze” launched most recently by Indian economists Shoumitro Chatterjee and Arvind Subramanian in the pages of Foreign Affairs - mobilizes a different, more speculative temporal register: the counterfactual realm of alternate history. The China squeeze argument asks not what has happened, or what is going to happen, but what might have been. Specifically, what options for economic development might have been open to Global South economies like India or the economies of sub-Saharan Africa, had it not been for China’s spectacular industrialization since the late 1990s and the persistent competitiveness of China’s manufacture in low-skilled segments. Chatterjee and Subramanian’s argument is that whilst China has built a powerful position in electrical machinery and other high-skill manufacturing, which is now delivering China Shock 2.0, it also continues to run a trade surplus in low-skill, labour-intensive manufacturing. This surplus is large and has remained largely unchanged in fifteen years. Indeed, in the 2010s, in trade with low-income countries, China’s surplus rapidly increased. On their reading, this squeezes low-income producers in low-skill sectors in which they “should” be able to compete. Source: “China’s Mercantilist Squeeze on Developing Countries” Shoumitro Chatterjee and Arvind Subramanian. Peterson Institute for International Economics 26-7 May 2026 Chatterjee and Subramanian’s wording is telling: (emphasis mine) The canonical trajectory of economic development in the post-World War II period is for countries to transition from agriculture to manufacturing, first in low-skilled manufacturing and then later on to high-skill manufacturing (Herrendorf, Rogerson, and Valentinyi 2013). At the global level, this implies that high-income countries (HICs) that once specialized in low-skilled activities cede manufacturing export space to poorer countries that come along to occupy that space. In 1965, advanced economies accounted for about 60 percent of global value-added exports in four key low-skilled manufacturing sectors, i.e., apparel, leather, textiles, and footwear. Over time this share declined and began to be occupied first by the East Asian tigers and, beginning in the late 1990s, by China. Today China accounts for about 50 percent of the global market. The question is whether China, with its rising prosperity, is continuing to behave like its richer counterparts and ceding export space to poorer followers or to behave unlike them and continuing to occupy space. In terms of the conceptual maneuvers it performs, of the three China shock discourses, the “China squeeze” argument is by far the most ambitious. After all, it bases its critique of China on a counterfactual imagining of the world. Like any counterfactual argument, to construct this alternative reality it must rely on a heuristic model. To make their argument Chatterjee and Subramanian mobilize two key claims. The first reference point is the actual history of rich-country industrialization, what they refer to as the “canonical path”. The idea is that countries transition from agriculture to light industry and low-skilled manufacturing and from there up the value chain. To make this useful as a standard of comparison and a means to construct a normative standard, they adjust sectoral export shares for two factors: 1. the underlying level of economic development of the exporting country, as measured by national income and 2. the degree to which the sector in question is internationalized. The idea being that for a high income country to have a high export share in low-skill sectors is anomalous and even more so if that particular product is highly internationalized and thus suitable for being “conceded” to lower-income competitors. Where should this process end? Here Chatterjee and Subramanian introduce their second benchmark. Their normative idea of a global development path is one in which, in due course, low-skill manufacturing exports are distributed in proportion to a country’s share in the global labour force. They imagine, in other words, a world of proportional, polycentric global development without much national specialization in low-skill manufacturing. A useful benchmark is that, in labor-intensive manufacturing sectors, a country’s share of world exports should be broadly commensurate with its share of the world’s low-skilled labor endowment. … In the Heckscher-Ohlin model, this would be true if value added per worker and export propensities, i.e., fraction of output that is exported, are the same across countries. It is this pleasant liberal vista of orderly global development, progressing towards a general distribution of low-skilled manufacturing against which they judge reality and conclude that the low-income countries are suffering a “China squeeze”. China is not exiting low-skill sectors fast enough Allowing for its gdp level and the degree of globalization, China’s share of low-skill manufacturing exports is far higher than it “should” be. Relative to population, its low-skill share of exports is far too high. That in turn yields the conclusion that huge numbers of jobs - the authors suggest tens of millions - are being hoarded by China. For the four sectors captured in figure 4, this excess in value-added exports is $110 billion in 2022. For all low-skilled sectors overall captured in appendix figure D.1, excess value-added exports amount to $365 billion. The crowding out of LMIC exports by China is therefore substantial. Both these claims have in common that they are strong structuralisms. The first is that development paths ought to resemble each other. The second is that broadly speaking as far as low-skilled manufacturing is concerned, all countries are alike. If the world currently diverges from the distribution of trade implied by these assumptions, if China is not following the advanced economy path and has huge exports, this must be the result of “policy”, which the authors then put in question as illegitimate or unfair. Thus the naturalistic construction of a canonical path leading to a “level” distribution of low-skilled manufacturing reveals itself to be a polemical tool. From the point of view of China shock polemics, this discourse is no doubt welcome. But as an account of economic history, it must surely be regarded as nothing short of bamboozling. Development paths do not follow a regular, natural sequence. As David Fishman put it aptly, “development is not a queue”. They are always and everywhere, through and through political. Development is not so much a process, as a project. Each such project is more or less well adjusted to its context. As Gerschenkron taught uneven and combined development implies differentiation rather than simple imitation on a single parth. It may be true that Europe and the US exited relatively early from low-skill work. But clearly technology has changed. As C&S themselves point out, China no longer enjoys a low wage environment. Do they really believe that such huge differences can be accounted for either by industrial policy, which as they admit does not operate powerfully in low-skill sectors, or by exchange rate manipulation? What is overwhelmingly dominant in explaining the persistence of “low-skill” manufacturing in China are surely the network effects of complex supply chains. Indeed the label of “low-skill” may miss the point. The degree of globalization which Chatterjee and Subramanian decide to conjure away in their model of the development path - to allow for the fact that Europe and American textiles exporters did not enjoy just-in-time logistics in the 1950s - obscures the point that the networks through which Chinese factories supply the world are themselves key parts of the low-skill industrialization project. China isn’t knocking out 1970s style “cheap”. It has redefined the entire product cycle. C&S’s casual reference to “T-shirts” is telling. In today’s “fast fashion”, there is weight on both terms. Fashion and fast. China’s success in delivering on both at unprecedentedly high speed and at unprecedentedly low cost, isn’t a low-skill operation at all. If we see development trajectories not as the serial repetition of the same, but as distinctive, crafted projects that cumulate in complex agglomerations of skill, technology and labor, then this explains why the assumption that low-skilled manufacturing should follow the distribution of population flies in the face of all experience. As countless cases attest, low-wage, low-income developed economies are not by themselves the makings of a competitive production base. As Leon Liao puts it quite fairly: “International trade has never been allocated according to population. A country’s population gives it no natural claim to an equivalent share of global exports." And the remarkable fact is that Subramanian alone and with co-authors has long been making this point, not to pillory China, as is the case of the tendentious _Foreign Affair_s and Peterson pieces, but to highlight the great counterpart to China’s industrial success, namely India’s relative failure. The much-quoted Foreign Affairs piece showed low-skill export shares only for China, not for India. If you put both countries in the picture as Chaterjee and Subramanian have done on other occasions, the picture looks like this. China is far above the line, but India, almost as large in terms of population, is no less anomalous, just in the opposite direction. As far as global populations are concerned, and the imagining of tens of millions of “squeezed” jobs, it is this Sino-Indian pair that account for a huge share of the action. What this graph reveals is not China’s cheating, but India’s “greatest development failure”, at least this is the argument made Arvind Subramanian, this time in co-authorship with Devesh Kapur, in their major book, A Sixth of Humanity. Independent India’s Development Odyssey which appeared with Oxford University Press earlier this year. In this highly critical work on India’s development, China is repeatedly evoked, not to criticize but as a benchmark against which to illuminate what India’s political economy has not delivered i.e. large-scale formal employment for hundreds of millions of citizens. Kapur and Subramanian leave no doubt, if you want to understand why China, not India was the main driver of manufacturing globalization from the 1980s, don’t look to slots opening up in the division of labour thanks to the liberal mindedness of advanced economies, look to the contrasting political economy of the Maoist PRC and India’s post-independence political economy. As Kapur and Subramian note: The great divergence between China and India did not begin in 1978 with the Deng reforms—it was well underway by then. In one of the great ironies of modern history, the conditions created by Maoism turned out to be a great launching pad for industrial globalization. As the comparison of India and China in 1980 makes clear, to imagine manufacturing would be equally distributed when populations are so differently endowed in terms of educational and nutritional is fanciful. Here is the data from Kapur and Subramanian, data which I explored back at the very beginning of Chartbook. As Kapur and Subramanian insist, the striking fact is that even as India’s growth accelerated from the 1980s, structural change has not. Formal employment in India lags woefully behind. Why? As Kapur and Subramanian note, the path-dependent impact of India’s poor early start was devastating. The list of factors they mention is long and weighty: We argue for a new five-fold explanation applicable at different stages of Indian history: in the initial stages, the legacy of two key pre-1980s policies, the neglect of agriculture and the strangling of the domestic private sector, were critical. The failure of broad-based agricultural growth militated against rural industrialization, which would have been devoted to satisfying local needs that would have necessarily been labour intensive. Then, when the boom came after 1980, the thicket of regulation and broader labour protections that were legislated prematurely in a nascent democracy, underpinned by a deep ideological aversion to private capital in general and big capital specifically, became a barrier to attaining the size that would be necessary to compete globally. Similarly, the reforms after 1991, while wide-ranging, did not quite encompass non-tradeable inputs critical to manufacturing, namely, land, logistics infrastructure and power. A combination of low investment (logistics infrastructure), regulation (land) and the continued monopoly supply by state governments (power), combined with residual socialism, kept costs at 75–100 per cent above efficient supply. These factors were compounded on the supply side by the government, which dominated the formal labour market and established exorbitantly high wages at the lower end of the skill spectrum. This made their employment in the labour-intensive sector by the private sector less attractive. Finally, when the services sector and its exports boomed, wages soared even further via a Dutch Disease effect: one successful tradeable sector killed and cannibalized another less-skilled tradable sector, namely, manufacturing. Thus, scarcity-inducing policies of the planning era, precocious democracy and a Gandhian aversion to size; inefficient, monopolistic supply of critical non-tradable inputs; the behemoth of government; and super-successful skill-intensive services successively undermined India’s unskilled labour employment opportunities. The employment failure seems to have been over-determined. … Less quantifiable but no less important are some of the sociological factors that have undermined manufacturing and factory jobs. Take the impact of the success of the IT sector—located in urban areas with better working conditions, such as air-conditioned offices, good schools for children and attractive entertainment options. It became a more attractive place for engineering and management graduates to flock to. … Consider manufacturing and female employment. Indian society makes it difficult for women to work, reflected in India’s unusually low female labour force participation (elaborated in Chapter XIII). Indian society, in particular the routine harassment of women in public spaces, makes it even more difficult for them to travel long distances to take up work.37 Combined with onerous regulations on creating hostels and dormitories for women—which, in turn, prevents multiple shifts of operation—factories need to be located in areas with a large female labour pool. While firms can take apparel plants to female labour or bring them to the plants by building large-scale dormitories, this raises costs. If there was a case for subsidies to encourage labour-intensive manufacturing, housing subsidies to build dormitories for women workers would be a good place to start. All of this meant, that when opportunities did open up, in part thanks to adjustments in China, India was in no position to take advantage. Here is the account of the 2020s from Kapur and Subramanian. It stands in dizzying contrast to the one-sided, “China squeeze” argument delivered in the Peterson and Foreign Affairs pieces: In 2022, for example, India’s share of global exports in clothing (the canonical labour-intensive sector) was 3.1 per cent compared to 32 per cent for China. This is extremely disappointing because China started vacating export space in this sector after the Global Financial Crisis as its wages started rising; it then vacated further space in the aftermath of geopolitical developments that led investors to seek alternative investment locations. Between its peak and today, China lost about 7.5 percentage points of global export share (worth about $43 billion in 2022); over this period, India’s export share remained stagnant at 3 per cent, while that of Vietnam and Bangladesh rose by 3.5 to 4 percentage points. China’s loss did not translate into any gain for India in terms of low-skill exports and employment. Put differently, when the conditions for dynamism and prosperity were established after 1991, and even more tantalizingly when the global export opportunities opened up, it was as if India was a high-wage economy and only skilled labour could benefit from the dynamism. It had converted its physically abundant unskilled workforce into an economically expensive resource, penalizing its use. It is not my mission here to argue for or against Kapur and Subramanian’s interpretation of India’s development trajectory. The point in this context is simply that the “China squeeze” such as it is can only be understood, in relation to the heavy burden of domestic constraints that Kapur and Subramanian so unsparingly enumerate. I am concentrating here on India because it is the great counterpart to China and the unspoken reference point of the “China squeeze” discourse. But the point is more general. Can anyone with a straight face suggest that the main problems afflicting the development of South Africa or Nigeria, the great centers of mass underemployment in sub-saharan Africa, are cheap competition from China driven by Beijing’s industrial policy and an undervalued RMB? Likewise, is the main problem of the American working-class the threat of Chinese competition or the manifest crisis of social reproduction in the United States itself? The point here, as in the discourse around China shock 2.0 in Europe, is to insist that we should not normalize the world and pathologize China, without actually investigating what is going on in America’s industrial wastelands, the German car industry, or India’s lopsided labour market. One-sided pathologization should be understood for what it is, a polemical gesture. Concepts like China shock and China squeeze are, what Reinhart Koselleck, following Carl Schmitt, would have described as “asymmetrische Kampfbegriffe”, or “asymmetrical counter-concepts” or “asymmetrical combat concepts”. If the function of arguments like the “China squeeze” is to alert elites in the rest of the world of the need to rejuvenate and energize their development projects, so be it. But let us see the resulting discourses as the mobilizing interventions that they are. Interestingly, a significant slice of China’s public sphere - the so-called industrial party - have been obsessed for the last twenty years with precisely these questions of counterfactual economic history. Since the mid 2000s, a massive online discourse developed around an alternative history in which Chinese techno-patriots were asked to imagine how they would proceed if they had the possibility of traveling back in time to transport modern technology into the Ming dynasty (1368-1644) thus averting the “great divergence” of the 18th and 19th centuries. It is a fantasy of course, but also a goad. The point was not directed at Westerners. The alternate history is dramatically nationalist, but few n the West had even heard of it until recently. The adherents of the industrial party are not liberal moralists. They don’t project natural ladders of international development and ask why others don’t cede space. They take the Realpolitik of global economic development for granted. Their pointe was directed against fellow Chinese. The rallying cry of the alternative narrative was this: Now that we are beginning to gain steam and push forward on our national development path, now that we are breaking out of the inferior position assigned to us even in the early years following WTO accession, do not lose yourself in humanistic imaginings about better futures. In the spirit of Deng, they called on China to embrace the hard truth of development. Perhaps one might of the Industrial Party as a cultural trend born out of desire for symbolic revenge against those who had inflicted the century of humiliation. In terms of the various temporalities of the “China shock” - retrospective, prospective and counterfactual - one might think of the Industrial Policy discourse as truly speculative, conjuring up the China shock that never was. Or perhaps one might better think of it as imagining a world in which a powerful China was no shock at all, but simply a defining fact of modern history. I love putting out Chartbook. I am particularly pleased that it goes out for free to thousands of subscribers around the world. But, writing this newsletter takes a lot of work. If you are enjoying it and would like to support the project, sign up for one of the subscription options here. It is the equivalent of a fancy cup of coffee per month! Subscribe
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Put the kettle on.
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