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For much of the past century, scientists believed dinosaurs were already in decline when the asteroid struck 66 million years ago — but a 2025 study published in Science found fossils in New Mexico showing they were flourishing in diverse, thriving ecosystems right up until the moment of impact
For much of the past century, many scientists believed the dinosaurs were already in decline when the asteroid struck 66 million years ago, a group past its prime that a cosmic accident merely finished off. A 2025 study published in the journal Science, built on fossils from New Mexico, argues almost the opposite. Right up […]
Scientists Uncover Fossil Teeth Showing How Early Mammals Adapted After the Dinosaur Extinction
Researchers analyzed 200 fossil teeth from ancient mammals in China, revealing how they adapted and diversified after the mass extinction
Long Reads for the Long Weekend
(Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a newsletter on the entertainment industry and business strategy. I write a weekly Streaming Ratings Report and a bi-weekly strategy column, along with occasional deep dives into other topics, like today’s article. Please subscribe.) Happy Fourth of July weekend! As has been a tradition of mine going back to the beginning of the EntStrategyGuy website, I’m sharing my favorite long reads of the last year, like I did in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2024, and 2025. Let’s dive right in! Subscribe “Different Prices for the Same Ride: How Uber and Lyft Use AI to Get More Money Out of You“ by Derek Kravitz in Consumer Reports I don’t think surveillance pricing, like the kind described in this brilliant Consumer Reports article, is long for the world—it’s toxically unpopular—but we’ll see if either party takes on this issue. If I ran a political party focused on affordability, I would focus on a few pro-consumer and pro-market policies: Banning non-compete agreements. Ending surveillance pricing Eliminating junk fees (read more here...) Ensuring “right to repair” for consumer (and military!) products Capping excessive app store fees Stopping digital/algorithmic price-fixing tools. Preventing automatic subscription price increases. And more. If you want to fight inflation, there are a lot of great ways to do it quickly. Speaking of higher prices... “Secret Documents Show Pepsi and Walmart Colluded to Raise Food Prices Across the Economy“ by Matt Stoller in BIG Again, I think a political party should focus on lowering prices for consumers. And deals like this—Walmart making a deal/forcing Pepsi to offer the lowest prices at its stores and nowhere else—hypothetically lower prices at Walmart...but raise them everywhere else. “15 DUIs, still driving: California’s failure to take repeat drunk drivers off the road“ by Robert Lewis and Lauren Hepler in CalMatters CalMatters does terrific reporting in California, something the Golden State desperately needs more of, and this article is a great example of that. “PugLips: The next insanely popular thing you’ve never heard of…” by Simon Carless in Game Discover Co I thought that this parody article (and yes, it’s a parody, but I was definitely unsure at first) was hilarious and totally nailed how much tech/business journalism feels these days. Actually, three of my favorite articles this year were on hype in the video game industry, including Georg Zoller’s “The Video Game Industries Very Dark Night”—which I linked to recently and wrote a follow-up here—and Owen Mahoney’s “Derek Zoolander, Videogame Exec”. In particular, I like Mahoney’s focus on user experience as a guide to what trends will actually grab hold of customers. “The Matrix Lies“ by Evan Shapiro in Media War & Peace Evan Shapiro’s first person account of his experience with AI was hilarious. I think LLMs capabilities have significantly grown from last summer, and yet...my editor/researcher just had an abysmal experience using an LLM to do a quite basic task (which our LLM normally does each week) and the LLM made a mistake on every single data entry...along with seven different mistakes affecting twelve of the twenty or so entries, including mistakes that are explicitly spelled out in the prompt. That’s a brutal failure rate. Again, if you use AI/LLM for data collection, you need to take a lot of extra steps to verify and check the data. “Ghosts in the Balcony: A Cross-Country Trip to 58 Theaters Fighting to Survive“ by Matthew Frank in The Ankler I thought Matthew Frank’s pitch to head across America to visit theaters sounded insane aggressive at the time—at least it felt that way to someone a decade older than him; man, to be in your twenties again, am I right?—but I knew the result would be great. And it was, a terrific feature by a great young writer. Also, I loved Matthew’s recent article on who’s getting the precious few entry level jobs in Hollywood. (Hint: nepotism.) “Disney erased FiveThirtyEight“ and “Did Las Vegas get too greedy?” by Nate Silver in Silver Bulletin I love media history and analysis, and there’s no one better to get the history of FiveThirtyEight than from Nate Silver, who wrote about his personal experience in one of my favorite pieces from this year. I also loved Nate’s breakdown of what’s causing Vegas’ woes, but I’ll offer one criticism, summarized as “Might I suggest antitrust?” Many centrists/center-right/libertarian thinkers (Nate is self-described as the latter) often don’t consider consolidation or antitrust as factors in policy issues like housing, America’s military readiness, or, in this case, Las Vegas. Even if libertarians want to debunk antitrust/consolidation concerns, I’d love to read that debunking. In this case, Vegas is incredibly consolidated (though it also has been for a long time) and I’d have loved to read Nate at least contending with this factor, since he addresses almost every other potential factor for Vegas’ decline. “Why Microsoft’s Carbon Removal Pullback Is Such a Big Deal“ by Robinson Meyer in Heatmap News I’m a big supporter of carbon removal efforts, but this nascent industry faces a lot of headwinds, including this big move most recently. I think it’s clear that solar panels and batteries should be able to get the world to its carbon footprint goals, but effective carbon renewal remains necessary to prevent the worst impacts of global warming. “AI is killing the cheap smartphone“ by David Oks LLMs and AI will impact the world in ways we’re not ready for, and already, third world countries are seeing the prices of cheap cellphones skyrocket due to the cost of chips skyrocketing. This article by David Oks is a terrific breakdown. “100 Days of Madness: Netflix, Paramount, Warner and the Future of Hollywood“ by Wade Major at Hollywood Heretic Wade Major dove deep into Hollywood/streaming’s financials in this must read piece. Not that I agree with everything in this article (read my take on Warner Bros./Paramount here) but the analysis is top notch. I think many people discount how quality thinking, regardless of the argument/conclusion, will make you a better thinker. “Erased by the UFC: Frank Shamrock, The MMA GOAT of the 20th Century“ by Nate Wilcox in The MMA Draw Newsletter Growing up playing the UFC fighting game on the Dreamcast, Frank Shamrock was my favorite MMA fighter, and this history/tribute to him was great. Other Fun Reads “The Hardest Part Of History To Tell Is How It Felt“ by Craig Fehrman at Defector “Unmasking the Sea Star Killer“ by Craig Welch at bioGraphic “What Could Save the Industry? Fin-Syn“ by Richard Rushfield in The Ankler Alex Rollins Berg in Underexposed on movie bumpers, pillow shots, Disney trash cinema, cult films, and Casablanca. David H. Montgomery in YouGov’s The Surveyor on punctuation marks, condiments, dinosaurs, and comic strips and kids media. “How Medium finally pivoted its way to profitability“ and “Why the best journalists on YouTube are all former Vox employees“ by Simon Owens in Simon Owens’s Media Newsletter “It’s Not Just You, Netflix Shows Have Gotten Slightly Shorter: Here’s What the Data Says“ by Kasey Moore at What’s on Netflix “Numlock Awards: How Diane Warren became the biggest loser in Oscar history“ by Nathaniel Rakich and “Numlock Awards: The Oscar Bait era is over. The Oscar Chum era is here.” by Walt Hickey & Michael Domanico at Numlock Awards
Scientists recreated a dinosaur nest and solved a 70-million-year-old mystery
A team of researchers recreated a life-size oviraptor nest to investigate how these bird-like dinosaurs incubated their eggs millions of years ago. By combining physical experiments with heat transfer simulations, they discovered that oviraptors likely relied on both their own body heat and warmth from the sun.
First ever dinosaur found in Antarctica described for science
The first dinosaur fossil found on the Antarctic continent has been described scientifically. The fossil, a vertebra, was found on a British Antarctic Survey (BAS) expedition in 1985 but has only recently ...
Wendy Schmidt: Three centuries of science is something to celebrate
George Washington Died Not Knowing Dinosaurs Existed. Three Centuries Later, Science Has Never Needed More Defense.
Wendy Schmidt: Three centuries of science is something to celebrate
George Washington Died Not Knowing Dinosaurs Existed. Three Centuries Later, Science Has Never Needed More Defense.
First ever dinosaur found in Antarctica described for science
Dinosaur backbone is the first found on the icy continent, and belongs to a titanosaur around 6–7 meters in length.
This four-winged dinosaur may have terrorized Earth's earliest birds
A newly discovered feathered dinosaur called Jian changmaensis may be the missing predator responsible for mysterious piles of crushed prehistoric bird bones in China. The four-winged glider, a close cousin of Velociraptor, helps reveal how early birds and their dinosaur relatives shared the same ancient landscape.
Dinosaurs invaded downtown St. Paul for blockbuster 1986 Science Museum exhibit
The brontosaurus and a 10-foot-tall Tyrannosaurus rex had been floated down the Mississippi River from Minneapolis that morning on coal barges to drum up publicity for the exhibit. It worked.
How blue whales became Earth’s largest creature—ever
Yes, even bigger than the dinosaurs.
The Dinosaur-killing Asteroid May Have Fueled Life Underground for 8 Million Years
Scientists found evidence that Chicxulub remained hydrothermally active four times longer than earlier estimates.
Velociraptor’s cousin flew like a flying squirrel
Four 'wings' helped the crow-sized avian dinosaur glide.
The Science Lady to Bring Dinosaurs, Reactions and Explosions Program to Jacksonville Public Library
JACKSONVILLE, AL — Families and science enthusiasts will have an opportunity to explore the wonders of science when The Science Lady visits the Jacksonville Public Library for a special educational program on Friday, June 5, 2026. The event, titled “Dinosaurs, Reactions, and Explosions, Oh My!”, is scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. at the Jacksonville […]
Inside 'The End of Oak Street': How Anne Hathaway ended up fighting dinosaurs in suburbia
'The End of Oak Street' combines prehistoric spectacle and grounded family drama, says director David Robert Mitchell, who called upon his childhood love of dinosaurs to craft the original sci-fi adventure.
This newly discovered raptor may have hunted like a giant heron
A newly discovered raptor-like dinosaur from Patagonia is changing how scientists think about ancient predators. Named Kank australis, the 70-million-year-old dinosaur appears to have hunted fish much like modern herons, using a long, flexible neck and specialized vertebrae adapted for swift, precise movements.
This bizarre crocodile relative from the Triassic looked like an ostrich dinosaur
Scientists have discovered Labrujasuchus expectatus, a bizarre crocodile relative that looked more like an ostrich-like dinosaur than anything resembling a modern crocodile. It walked on two legs, had tiny arms, and sported a toothless beak—an unexpected combination for a member of the crocodile lineage.
Earth’s orbital wobble triggered rapid climate chaos during the dinosaur age
New research suggests Earth’s climate can swing wildly on surprisingly short timescales — even during hot, ice-free greenhouse periods. By studying ancient sediments from the Late Cretaceous, scientists uncovered repeating climate shifts tied to tiny changes in Earth’s orbital wobble. These cycles may have repeatedly pushed the planet between humid and arid states every few thousand years.
Story of dinosaur-killer meteorite impact told in vivid detail
Two scientists have described the bright fireball, crackling noise and sonic boom of the impact 66m years ago
Creation Scientists’ Research Back in the News Again
Did dinosaurs really die out millions of years ago?
Why did T. rex have tiny arms? A new study may finally have the answer
An analysis of 85 dinosaur species shows that tiny forearms in meat-eating dinosaurs were the result of an evolutionary trade-off.
T. rex’s tiny arms may have evolved for a surprisingly brutal reason
Why did T. rex have such tiny arms? Scientists now think it’s because its giant head became the ultimate hunting tool. Across multiple dinosaur groups, stronger skulls and crushing jaws evolved alongside shrinking forelimbs, especially in predators hunting enormous prey. In other words, once the bite became deadly enough, the arms may have stopped mattering.
The asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs may have triggered a global fungal bloom
The asteroid that smacked into our planet about 66 million years ago at the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K/Pg) boundary may have been bad news for dinosaurs, but it was good news for fungi. According to new ...
Mysterious giant sharks that outlived the dinosaurs lurking in Puget Sound
Researchers from Seattle Aquarium are studying the sixgill shark to learn more about their elusive lives.
Stunning 150-million-year-old stegosaur skull rewrites dinosaur evolution
A spectacular dinosaur discovery in Spain is giving scientists a rare new look inside the world of stegosaurs. Paleontologists uncovered the best-preserved stegosaur skull ever found in Europe, belonging to the iconic plated dinosaur Dacentrurus armatus, which roamed Earth around 150 million years ago. Because stegosaur skulls are extremely fragile and almost never survive intact, the fossil is helping researchers uncover previously unknown details about how these armored giants evolved.
Scientists Find Fossils Of Southeast Asia's Giant Dinosaur In Thailand
According to the researchers, the largest predator in the ecosystem was a relative of the giant African meat-eating dinosaur Carcharodontosaurus.
Scientists discover giant “last titan” dinosaur, Southeast Asia’s largest ever
A massive new dinosaur discovered in Thailand is rewriting Southeast Asia’s prehistoric history. The newly named Nagatitan chaiyaphumensis was a colossal long-necked sauropod that weighed around 27 tonnes and lived more than 100 million years ago. Scientists believe it may be the last giant sauropod ever to roam the region before rising seas transformed the landscape.
Scientists identify massive new dinosaur following Thailand dig
Nagatitan chaiyaphumensis had enough unique features to be considered a new species.
Scientists dig up Southeast Asia's largest dinosaur in Thailand
Nagatitan was a member of the dinosaur lineage called sauropods known for having a long neck, long tail, small head and four columnar legs.
Scientists dig up Southeast Asia's largest dinosaur in Thailand
Along a meandering river in a warm and arid region that is now Thailand roughly 113 million years ago, a plant-eating behemoth almost 90 feet (27 meters) long browsed on the treetops without much fear of predators due to its sheer size. This was Nagatitan chaiyaphumensis, the largest-known dinosaur from Southeast Asia.
Paleontology rocked by discovery of organic molecules in 66-million-year-old dinosaur bones
Scientists have uncovered compelling evidence that dinosaur fossils may still contain traces of their original proteins, overturning a long-standing belief that fossilization destroys all organic material. In a remarkably well-preserved Edmontosaurus fossil from South Dakota, researchers detected remnants of collagen — the main protein found in bone — using advanced techniques including mass spectrometry and protein sequencing.
A new species offers a clue to the boom of giant dinosaurs
Nagatitan chaiyaphumensis may be the largest dinosaur ever found in Southeast Asia. Paleontologists estimate this behemoth weighed 30 tons and measured over 88 feet long.
Playing Forza Horizon 6 Early Gets Fan Banned For 7,973 Years
Also: Devil Dinosaur comes to Marvel Rivals and Alan Wake comes to Phasmophobia
This strange giant dinosaur may change what we know about Jurassic titans
A bizarre new giant dinosaur discovered in Argentina is giving paleontologists a fresh look at how Jurassic titans evolved in the Southern Hemisphere. Bicharracosaurus dionidei stretched about 20 meters long and carried a strange mix of features seen in both Diplodocus and Brachiosaurus relatives. Scientists believe it could represent the first known Jurassic brachiosaurid from South America, helping fill a major gap in the dinosaur fossil record.
Dinosaurs May Actually Have Emerged Up To 250 Million Years Ago – 10 Million Years Earlier Than The Oldest Dinosaur Fossils
With so many of them having been ambush predators, perhaps we should have expected they could hide themselves from us like this.
Where Did The Myth That Oil Is Made Of Dinosaurs Come From? Probably Chicago In 1933
When we first encountered oil we thought it might be a mineral deposit, which was incorrect, but absolutely nobody was suggesting it was dinosaur juice.
Course on science museums travels to the United Kingdom
Every child can recall their first trip to a museum and the sense of wonder and excitement that comes from laying eyes on the real-life remnants of a dinosaur or the preserved artifacts of our ancestors. For a group of students taking a course on the impacts of colonization on science museums, that spark was ignited by all the work that went into the completion of those museum exhibits.
Dinosaur Day and Science Fest, 9am
Scientists believe birds’ skulls hold clues to inner lives of long-extinct dinosaurs
Early birds were like ‘T rex reincarnated’, says scientist who believes avian skulls offer insight into dinosaurs’ behaviour
Blood vessels found in T. rex bones are rewriting dinosaur science
Dinosaur DNA may still be out of reach, but scientists are uncovering something almost as exciting—ancient blood vessels hidden inside fossilized bones. In a massive Tyrannosaurus rex nicknamed Scotty, researchers discovered a network of preserved vessels within a rib that once fractured and began healing 66 million years ago. Using powerful synchrotron X-rays from particle accelerators, they were able to peer inside the dense fossil without damaging it, revealing intricate, iron-rich structures left behind by the healing process.
Giant octopuses may have ruled the oceans 100 million years ago
Giant, fearsome octopuses may have once ruled the ancient seas, according to new research that flips the script on their evolutionary past. By uncovering exquisitely preserved fossil jaws hidden inside rock, scientists revealed that early octopuses from the age of dinosaurs weren’t shy, soft-bodied drifters—they were massive apex predators, possibly stretching up to 20 meters long and crushing prey with powerful bites.
Stunning 132 million-year-old dinosaur tracks are rewriting history
A long-standing mystery in southern Africa’s fossil record is beginning to unravel. After massive lava flows 182 million years ago seemed to erase evidence of dinosaurs in the region, scientists have now uncovered surprising new clues along the Western Cape coast. Dozens of dinosaur tracks, about 132 million years old, have been discovered in a tiny stretch of rock near Knysna—making them the youngest ever found in southern Africa.
Earliest octopuses were Kraken-like sea monsters, fossils show
Whale-sized, monstrous octopuses prowled the seas during the Age of Dinosaurs, snatching prey with their huge tentacles and crunching them with powerful jaws, fossils from B.C. and Japan suggest.
Experience Science City's Brand-New "Jurassic Journey"
Shane and Kerrigan join Floor Lead Travis Brown at Science City to explore their new, interactive dinosaur exhibit.
10 dinosaur science books recommended by a paleontologist
Steve Brusatte, author of The Rise and Fall of the Dinosaurs and The Story of Birds, recommends 10 dinosaur books to dig into
A crushed fossil revealed a dinosaur that shouldn’t have existed
A badly mangled dinosaur skull, once forgotten in a drawer, turned out to be a rare and important discovery. Reconstructed by a Virginia Tech student, it revealed a new species of early carnivorous dinosaur with unusual features never seen before. The fossil suggests some dinosaur groups were wiped out during the end-Triassic extinction, not just their rivals. It may represent one of the last survivors of an ancient dinosaur lineage.
Mid-America Science Museum opening interactive dinosaur exhibit April 25
Dinosaurs will return to Mid-America Science Museum starting April 25 with the exhibit "Expedition: Dinosaur."
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Public health alert for frozen dino chicken nuggets retracted
FSIS retracted the public health alert for frozen, dinosaur-shaped chicken nuggets after follow up testing found no elevated levels of lead.
Walmart's dino nuggets are safe to eat after high lead scare, USDA says
A public health alert for Walmart's Great Value dinosaur-shaped chicken nuggets, suspected of lead contamination, has been retracted.
The revolution in dinosaur science started 50 years ago—here's what we have learned
The study of dinosaurs has been through a revolution in recent decades. The story began half a century ago, when Robert McNeill Alexander, a professor of zoology at the University of Leeds, showed how ...
New Mexico Museum of Natural History and Science Reopens April 4 with Traveling Exhibition
"Animal Armor: The Evolution of Armor in Dinosaurs and Prehistoric Animals" puts the spotlight on armored animals and the history of the evolution of armor in prehistoric creatures.
USDA issues health alert for ready-to-eat chicken nuggets sold at Walmart due to possible lead contamination
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) is urging the public to check their freezers for dinosaur-shaped, ready-to-eat chicken nuggets sold at Walmart that may be contaminated with unsafe levels of lead.
USDA issues health alert for ready-to-eat chicken nuggets sold at Walmart due to possible lead contamination
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) is urging the public to check their freezers for dinosaur-shaped, ready-to-eat chicken nuggets sold at Walmart that may be contaminated with unsafe levels of lead.
Public health alert issued for Great Value dinosaur-shaped chicken nuggets over lead concerns
A public health alert has been issued for frozen “Great Value” dinosaur-shaped chicken nuggets due to lead contamination concerns, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS).
New Mexico Museum of Natural History & Science reopening: 5 updates to see
From dinosaur armor to a cosmic solarium, see 5 big updates as the New Mexico Museum of Natural History & Science reopens Saturday.
Ohio State's Ryan Day explains Buckeyes' massive offseason transfer overhaul: 'Adapt or die'
The Buckeyes coach compared the current college football landscape to that of the dinosaurs
Scientists found a baby dinosaur hidden in rock and it is surprisingly cute
Scientists uncovered a rare baby dinosaur in South Korea and named it Doolysaurus after a famous cartoon character. Using cutting-edge CT scans, they discovered hidden bones—including a skull—inside rock much faster than traditional methods. The young dinosaur, possibly fluffy and lamb-like, even had stomach stones that reveal it ate a mix of plants and small animals. The discovery suggests many more dinosaurs may still be hidden in Korea’s rocks.
The revolution in dinosaur science started 50 years ago – here’s what we have learned
Scientific methods validated from modern life have brought dinosaurs to life in a testable way.
Some dinosaurs could rise up like giants — until they grew too big
Certain smaller sauropods could stand on their hind legs with surprising ease, giving them access to higher food and a defensive edge. Computer simulations show their bones handled stress better than those of their larger relatives. However, as they grew, the sheer weight made this posture much harder to sustain. What started as a useful trick in youth became a more limited, strategic move in adulthood.
Spark Curiosity This Summer at Brooklyn Preschool of Science (sponsored) | Brooklyn Bridge Parents - News, Events and Family Services
Brooklyn Preschool of Science’s beloved Summer Science Program is back, offering six weeks of hands-on STEAM fun for curious 1–5-year-olds, with the flexibility to enroll for just one week or the entire summer. Each week features a different thematic unit of study, so children might be exploring oceans one week and insects or dinosaurs the
A baby dinosaur hidden inside rock reveals a first-of-its-kind discovery at UT Austin
A baby dinosaur fossil hidden inside solid rock for nearly 100 million years is now rewriting South Korea’s fossil record. Revealed using advanced CT scans at the University of Texas at Austin, the…
Scientists recreated a dinosaur nest to solve a 70-million-year-old mystery
Scientists recreated a life-size oviraptor nest to understand how these dinosaurs hatched their eggs. Their experiments showed the parent likely couldn’t heat all the eggs directly, meaning sunlight played a key role. This uneven heating could cause eggs in the same nest to hatch at different times. The results suggest oviraptors used a hybrid incubation method unlike modern birds.
Paleontology has an Epstein problem. Women in the field say it's a symptom of a deeper misogyny
The names of hundreds of scientists have appeared in the Epstein files, including prominent dinosaur researchers. As the paleontology community reckons with the fallout of these revelations, women in the field say it's bringing to the forefront what they've known for years — that paleontology is ripe with abuse and harassment, and its institutions protect men at the top at the expense of women trying to build careers in spaces that treat them as disposable.
How plants moved from sea to land and changed Earth forever
A geoscientist explains how the first plants came to exist on Earth, long before the dinosaurs, and how their growth shaped life on our planet as we know it.
Hours After Announcing Donald Glover as Yoshi in the Super Mario Galaxy Movie, Nintendo Has Now Revealed Its New Yoshi Game Release Date
It's been a busy 24 hours for Yoshi fans. Following confirmation that Donald Glover will voice the elastic-tongued dinosaur in The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, we now know the release date for Yoshi's next game.
This Giant Dinosaur Walked in Circles 150 Million Years Ago – Scientists Uncover Its Secrets
A rare looping dinosaur trackway in Colorado reveals new clues about sauropod movement and hints that the massive animal may have walked with a limp.
This 2-pound dinosaur is rewriting what scientists know about evolution
A nearly complete dinosaur skeleton discovered in Patagonia is helping scientists crack the mystery of alvarezsaurs, a bizarre group of bird-like dinosaurs. The fossil of Alnashetri cerropoliciensis reveals that these animals became tiny before developing their later specialized features, such as stubby arms and ant-eating adaptations. Weighing under two pounds, the dinosaur is one of the smallest known from South America.
What crocodile bones teach us about dinosaurs
Paleontologists have often determined how old a dinosaur was by counting the growth rings in its bones. Just like with trees, it was thought that each ring corresponded to a single year of age. But researchers who studied crocodiles at an outdoor recreation center near Cape Town appear to have poked a hole in that approach. In the crocodiles, which are some of the closest living relatives of dinosaurs, there was more than one growth ring laid down per year. The results contribute to a growing debate over the best way to age animals.Read more of freelance science reporter Ari Daniel’s story here.Interested in more on the future of science? Email us your question at shortwave@npr.org.Listen to every episode of Short Wave sponsor-free and support our work at NPR by signing up for Short Wave+ at plus.npr.org/shortwave.
'It was a deal': Bellingham native buys Pacific Science Center's stegosaurus head for thousands
A Bellingham native invests in the Pacific Science Center's stegosaurus head as the dinosaur exhibit faces closure and disrepair.
MINNEAPOLIMEDIA ENTERTAINMENT This Weekend in the Twin Cities Entertainment Guide | March 7 to March 8, 2026
Broadway, live music, Gophers hoops, dinosaurs, taiko drums and maple syrup. The Twin Cities is packed this weekend. Get out there, March 7 to 8. Winter is not done with us yet.
MINNEAPOLIMEDIA ENTERTAINMENT | This Weekend in the Twin Cities: Entertainment Guide - March 7 to March 8, 2026
Broadway, live music, Gophers hoops, dinosaurs, taiko drums and maple syrup. The Twin Cities is packed this weekend. Get out there, March 7 to 8. Winter is not done with us yet.
When Scientists Are Dinosaurs
When Scientists Are Dinosaurs: At the paleontology conference, her new theory was shouted down
Teeth smaller than a fingertip reveal the first primate ancestor
Tiny, tooth-sized fossils have just reshaped the story of our deepest ancestry. Paleontologists have discovered the southernmost remains ever found of Purgatorius—the earliest-known relative of all primates, including humans—in Colorado’s Denver Basin. Previously thought to be confined to Montana and parts of Canada, this shrew-sized, tree-dwelling mammal now appears to have spread southward soon after the asteroid impact that wiped out the dinosaurs.
Scientists compared dinosaurs to mammals for decades but missed this key difference
Baby dinosaurs weren’t coddled like lion cubs or elephant calves—they were more like prehistoric latchkey kids. New research suggests that young dinosaurs quickly struck out on their own, forming kid-only groups and surviving without much parental help, while their massive parents lived entirely different lives. Because juveniles and adults ate different foods, faced different predators, and moved through different parts of the landscape, they may have functioned almost like separate species within the same ecosystem.
T. Rex Ran on Its Tiptoes ‘Like an 8-Ton Chicken’
New findings about the anatomy of the dinosaur age’s fiercest predator suggest it chased prey “like an oversized bird.”
A giant blade-crested spinosaurus, the “hell heron,” discovered in the Sahara
Deep in the heart of the Sahara, scientists have uncovered Spinosaurus mirabilis — a spectacular new predator crowned with a massive, scimitar-shaped crest that may once have blazed with color under the desert sun. Discovered in remote inland river deposits in Niger, the fossil rewrites what we thought we knew about spinosaur dinosaurs, suggesting they weren’t fully aquatic hunters but powerful waders stalking fish in forested waterways hundreds of miles from the sea.
Triceratops had a giant nose that may have cooled its massive head
Triceratops’ massive head may have been doing more than just showing off those famous horns. Using CT scans and 3D reconstructions of fossil skulls, researchers uncovered a surprisingly complex nasal system hidden inside its enormous snout. Instead of being just a supersized nose for smelling, it likely housed intricate networks of nerves and blood vessels—and even special structures that helped regulate heat and moisture.
Skull of 'dinosaur from Hell' discovered with sword jutting from its...
"This find was so sudden and amazing, it was really emotional for our team."
An ‘astonishingly’ large new dinosaur species has been discovered in the Sahara | BBC Science Focus Magazine
This school-bus-sized predator was so unusual that scientists didn't recognise it at first
95 million-year-old Spinosaurus had a scimitar-shaped head crest and waded through the Sahara's rivers like a 'hell heron'
Researchers have identified a new Spinosaurus species with a blade-like crest in Niger, changing our understanding of dinosaur evolution and behavior.
125 million-year-old dinosaur with never before seen hollow spikes discovered in China
A 125-million-year-old dinosaur just rewrote what we thought we knew about prehistoric life. Scientists in China have uncovered an exceptionally preserved juvenile iguanodontian with fossilized skin so detailed that individual cells are still visible. Even more astonishing, the plant-eating dinosaur was covered in hollow, porcupine-like spikes—structures never before documented in any dinosaur.
Antarctica has a ‘gravity hole’
The geological oddity has existed since dinosaurs roamed the Earth.
Morgan Freeman narrates the glorious rise and meteoric fall of 'The Dinosaurs' in new Netflix series (video)
Steven Spielberg and Amblin Entertainment's 4-part dino-doc arrives March 6
92-foot dinosaur found by accident is forcing scientists to rethink prehistoric giants - Futura-Sciences
The fossil surfaced in Chongqing’s Tongnan District, within the Suining Formation, a Late Jurassic geological layer. After its accidental exposure, a research team led by Xuefang Wei of the Chengdu Center of China Geological Survey carried out a formal excavation and analysis, ultimately identifying the remains as a previously unknown...
Baby dinosaurs were the backbone of the Jurassic food chain
Despite growing into the largest animals ever to walk on land, sauropods began life small, exposed, and alone. Fossil evidence suggests their babies were frequently eaten by multiple predators, making them a key part of the Jurassic food chain. This steady supply of easy prey may explain why early predators thrived without needing extreme hunting adaptations. The findings offer a rare glimpse into how dinosaur ecosystems truly worked.
Life may have rebounded 'ridiculously fast' after the dinosaur-killing asteroid impact
After the asteroid smashed into Earth around 66 million years ago, it didn't take life that long to rebound, a new study finds.
McDonald's brings back an iconic item from the 1980s
McDonald's brings back beloved Changeables Happy Meal toys after decades, featuring 16 transforming robots and dinosaurs for nostalgic fans everywhere.
You Wouldn’t Want to Butt Heads With This Small Dinosaur
A newly discovered raptor had a knobby bump on its head, suggesting that, like some larger dinosaurs, it engaged in competitive head bashing.
Scientists launch AI DinoTracker app that identifies dinosaur footprints
Researchers say artificial intelligence system matches human expert classification about 90% of the time
Science teachers from Queensland Open Brethren schools told to teach students about vegetarian dinosaurs on Noah’s Ark
Teachers who attended ‘compulsory’ creationist conference run by US-based fundamentalist group told radiometric dating techniques were flawed
Rory Stewart: ‘A superpower? Indifference to social media abuse’
The former Tory MP and The Rest Is Politics host on a dinosaur he’d bring back to life, being thin-skinned and hating his bandy legs
Science meets art at Harvard Museum of Natural History’s Glass Flower exhibit
Visitors can wander through halls filled with dinosaur fossils, mounted mammals, minerals and global wildlife specimens.
This Dinosaur Really Knew How to Get a Grip
A fossil of Manipulonyx reshetovi, found in a Mongolian desert, shows how the dinosaur used its specialized claw to snatch eggs.