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Nobel medicine prize goes to 3 scientists for research into brain activity

The Nobel Assembly praised their method, noting its global use in revealing brain mysteries.

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Oct 5 • 7:10 AM EDT • Science • twincities.com
Nobel medicine prize goes to 3 scientists for research into brain activity

The Nobel Assembly praised their method, noting its global use in revealing brain mysteries.

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Oct 5 • 7:10 AM EDT • Science • mercurynews.com
Nobel medicine prize goes to 3 scientists for research into brain activity

The Nobel Prize in medicine was awarded Monday to three scientists working on the mechanisms the brain uses to switch on, or off, the activity of individual nerve cells.

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Oct 5 • 6:58 AM EDT • Science • chicagotribune.com
Nobel medicine prize goes to 3 scientists for research into brain activity

The Nobel Prize in medicine was awarded Monday to three scientists working on the mechanisms the brain uses to switch on, or off, the activity of individual nerve cells.

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Oct 5 • 6:11 AM EDT • Science • npr.org
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Nobel medicine prize goes to 3 scientists for research into brain activity

The Nobel committee lauded their work, writing on X that the method “is now being used in laboratories around the world to reveal the brain’s mysteries.”

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Oct 5 • 6:07 AM EDT • Science • bostonglobe.com
Scientists win Nobel medicine prize for research into brain activity

Their work was lauded “for discoveries leading to optogenetics, which makes it possible to switch on, or off, the activity of individual nerve cells in a living brain.”

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Oct 5 • 5:54 AM EDT • Science • nbcdfw.com
Nobel prize in medicine 2026 awarded for research on mysteries of brain

Three scientists to share 12m Swedish kronor prize for their work on ‘light-gated ion channels and optogenetics’

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Oct 5 • 5:52 AM EDT • Science • theguardian.com
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Nobel Prize in medicine jointly awarded to ​Karl Deisseroth, Peter Hegemann ​and Georg Nagel

The Nobel Prize in medicine was awarded Monday to Karl Deisseroth, Peter Hegemann and Georg Nagel for their research into light-gated ion channels and optogenetics. The prize money this year is 12 million…

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Oct 5 • 5:44 AM EDT • Science • france24.com
American Deisseroth and Germans Hegemann and Nagel win 2026 Nobel medicine prize

Scientists Karl Deisseroth, Peter Hegemann and Georg Nagel won the 2026 Nobel Prize in ​Physiology or Medicine for "discoveries concerning light-gated ion channels and optogenetics," the award-giving body said on ‌Monday.

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Oct 5 • 5:39 AM EDT • Science • reuters.com
German and US scientists win Nobel Prize in medicine for research on brain activity

The trio won the award for their discoveries concerning light-gated ion channels and optogenetics. This neurobiology tool has provided new insights into how we might treat blindness, depression, addiction and dementia.

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Oct 5 • 5:37 AM EDT • Science • dw.com
German and US scientists win Nobel Prize in medicine

The trio won the award for their discoveries concerning light-gated ion channels and optogenetics.

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Oct 5 • 5:37 AM EDT • Science • dw.com
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Nobel Prize in medicine awarded to three scientists for their work ‘concerning light-gated ion channels and optogenetics’

The 2026 Nobel Prize for physiology or medicine has been awarded to three scientists – Karl Deisseroth, Peter Hegemann and Georg Nagel – for “their discoveries concerning light-gated ion channels and optogenetics.”

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Oct 5 • 5:35 AM EDT • Science • cnn.com
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Scientists win Nobel Prize in medicine for work on ‘light-gated ion channels and optogenetics’

Scientists ⁠to Karl Deisseroth, Peter Hegemann and Georg Nagel won the 2026 ​Nobel Prize in ‌Physiology or ‌Medicine.

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Oct 5 • 5:34 AM EDT • Science • japantimes.co.jp
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2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine awarded to Karl Deisseroth, Georg Nagel and Peter Hegemann for work on optogenetics

Karl Deisseroth, Georg Nagel and Peter Hegemann developed optogenetics, which uses light and genetics to control individual cells

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Oct 5 • 5:30 AM EDT • Science • scientificamerican.com
The Nobel Prize week is kicking off in Stockholm with the medicine award

This year’s Nobel Prizes kick off with the awarding of the medicine prize at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm.

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Oct 5 • 3:02 AM EDT • Science • seattletimes.com
The Nobel Prize Week Is Kicking off in Stockholm With the Medicine Award

STOCKHOLM (AP) — This year's Nobel Prizes will kick off on Monday with the awarding of the medicine prize at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm. Last year, three scientists won the Nobel Prize in medicine for discoveries about how the immune system knows to attack germs and not our own bodies.

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Oct 5 • 3:01 AM EDT • Science • usnews.com
Nobel week kicks off with medicine prize

Nobel Prize week gets under way on Monday with the announcement of the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine at 11:30 am (0930 GMT) in Stockholm. This week will also see the announcement of the Nobel ...

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Oct 4 • 11:03 PM EDT • Science • yahoo.com
WATCH LIVE: Winner of the 2026 Nobel Prize in medicine is ...
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Oct 4 • 5:00 PM EDT • Health • pbs.org
AkzoNobel to sell unit to Nippon Paint for over $1 billion, FT reports

Dulux paint maker AkzoNobel is ​nearing a deal to sell its Southeast ‌Asian decorative paints business to Nippon Paint for well over $1 billion, the Financial Times reported on Sunday, citing ​people familiar with the matter.

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Oct 4 • 3:10 PM EDT • Business • reuters.com
Nobel laureate Eric Cornell: ‘Progress in science comes from asking new questions’

Nobel Prize-winning physicist Eric Cornell says scientists should focus on doing good science and embrace the joy of discovery, and one day they may discover something new to everybody.

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Oct 4 • 4:05 AM EDT • Science • e.vnexpress.net
Scientists studying cockroach milk and nose-blowing win Ig Nobel prizes for quirky science

Researchers have been honored for their quirky, imaginative contributions to science at the 36th annual Ig Nobel Prizes. Thursday's ceremony was held for the first time outside the U.S. Ten

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Oct 3 • 12:00 PM EDT • Science • yoursun.com
Could the International Space Station win a Nobel Peace Prize? Here's what to know

Not-so-outlandish, prognosticators say: The Nobel Peace Prize this year could go galactic, with an award to the International Space Station.

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Oct 2 • 7:36 PM EDT • Science • pbs.org
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Who Will Win the 2026 Nobel Prize? Scientists Make Their Predictions

From GLP-1 pioneers to researchers who uncovered the genetic roots of narcolepsy, scientists reveal who they think could receive a call from the Nobel Committee this year.

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Sep 30 • 12:00 AM EDT • Science • the-scientist.com
Science that makes you laugh? Canadian engineers win Ig Nobel Technology Prize for 3D ‘necroprinting’ with mosquitoes

The team printed a honeycomb and a Canadian maple leaf, both roughly the size of a single grain of sand.

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Sep 24 • 9:04 AM EDT • Science • theconversation.com
Science that makes you laugh? Canadian engineers win Ig Nobel Technology Prize for 3D ‘necroprinting’ with mosquitoes

The team printed a honeycomb and a Canadian maple leaf, both roughly the size of a single grain of sand.

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Sep 24 • 9:02 AM EDT • Science • ca.news.yahoo.com
Young Australian scientists learn from Nobel Laureates

Nine early-career scientists joined Nobel Prize winners for a week of scientific exchange at the 75th Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting.

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Sep 24 • 12:26 AM EDT • Science • science.org.au
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As The Deadline Nears, Civil Society Urges Spain To Nominate María Neira As WHO Chief

With Thursday’s 24 September deadline looming, international scientific societies and civil society leaders are pushing Spain to sponsor a last-minute WHO Director-General nomination for Dr María Neira. Endorsed by Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Adolfo Pérez Esquivel and Dr Carlos Ferreyra of Climate, Life and Health International, the petition urges Spanish ministers to register her candidacy before entries close.

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Sep 21 • 1:57 PM EDT • Health • healthpolicy-watch.news
Birth Of The Diamondiyne Age? Scientists Create New Diamond Structure That Could Unite Two Strands Of Nobel Prize-Winning Chemistry

Long theorized, it's finally been created.

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Sep 20 • 9:45 AM EDT • Science • iflscience.com
Birth Of The Diamondiyne Age? New Porous Carbon Structure Could Unite Two Strands Of Nobel Prize-Winning Chemistry

The chemical flexibility of carbon means it can adopt many different structures, including this porous diamond lattice.

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Sep 18 • 9:46 AM EDT • Science • iflscience.com
Jakirovic on team news, expectations and international break

Hull City boss Sergej Jakirovic has been speaking to the media before Saturday's Premier League game against Newcastle at St James' Park (kick-off 15:00 BST). Nobel Mendy will not feature because of concussion protocols, but "everything is fine" and he is "good". Matt Targett is a doubt after twisting his ankle.

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Sep 17 • 9:19 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Open AI and the million dollar maths problem

In early September, OpenAI announced it had solved a major mathematics problem that has stumped humans for nearly a century. The news left mathematicians reeling, and many expressed concern over what will be left for humans as AI becomes ever more adept at unravelling complex problems. Now 25 recipients of the Fields medal – often called the Nobel prize for maths – have signed an open letter expressing their fears of a ‘severe misalignment’ between AI companies and their field. To find out how AI is likely to upend maths – and how mathematicians might respond – Ian Sample speaks to Colva Roney-Dougal, professor of pure mathematics at the University of St Andrews

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Sep 17 • 9:01 AM EDT • Science • theguardian.com
Dealroom.co | RegCell raises $44M Series A to move Nobel-winning Treg science to the clinic

What's the deal? RegCell, an Emeryville, California biotech co-f…

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Sep 15 • 9:38 AM EDT • Science • app.dealroom.co
Snakebites and cockroach milk: Ig Nobel winners answer humanity's big questions

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Sep 11 • 7:58 PM EDT • Science • haaretz.com
Awards for mad scientists

The Ig Nobel Prizes were handed out last week for silly, absurd, outlandish science experiments. Or, as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. calls it, science.

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Sep 11 • 12:00 PM EDT • Science • wvnews.com
Benjamin List, Nobel laureate: ‘Chemists have always been seen as a dark force’

The discoverer of asymmetric organocatalysis defends the discipline’s potential to solve humanity’s greatest problems

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Sep 11 • 11:51 AM EDT • Science • english.elpais.com
'America's Nobel' prizes go to sleep and hemophilia researchers, and to Michael J. Fox for Parkinson's advocacy

The Lasker Foundation has announced the winners of its 2026 awards for basic medical research, clinical science and public service.

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Sep 9 • 5:47 PM EDT • Science • livescience.com
Slime Molds and a double Ig Nobel Prize winner and a big, great science adventure

” ‘This is dangerous’: slime moulds and the bitter debate over the nature of intelligence — Scientists are battling over whether supposedly simple organisms should be considered ‘intelligent’…

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Sep 9 • 3:24 AM EDT • Science • improbable.com
Are rich people really worse behaved? Here’s the science

Who’s more likely to steal sweets from a child? According to science, it’s the rich. A study seemingly confirming our suspicions about the moral behaviour of the wealthy was one of the winners of the 2026 Ig Nobel prizes, which honour research that makes you laugh and then think. Science editor Ian Sample tells Madeleine Finlay what the researchers think could be behind the phenomenon, and they explore some of the other awards, including one for a surprising quality we look for in our friends and another for a biomechanical definition of kissing

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Sep 8 • 12:26 PM EDT • Science • theguardian.com
Scientists studying cockroach milk and nose-blowing win Ig Nobel prizes for quirky science

Ten research teams were honored Thursday at a satirical science awards ceremony that was hosted outside the U.S. for the first time due to travel concerns.

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Sep 8 • 12:00 AM EDT • Science • griffindailynews.com
Research on cockroach milk and nose-blowing wins Ig Nobel prizes

Researchers are honored for their quirky, imaginative contributions to science at the 36th annual Ig Nobel Prizes. The ceremony was moved from the U.S., whose travel restrictions had made the country 'unsafe for our guests,' a top official said.

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Sep 5 • 5:01 PM EDT • Science • latimes.com
The Science Prizes That Make You Laugh, Then Think

Every September, a few weeks before the Nobel Prizes are announced, another set of science awards takes a much less serious approach. They are called the Ig Nobel Prizes, and their goal is simple: honor research that first makes people laugh, then makes them think. The science is real. So are the questions. According to

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Sep 5 • 11:33 AM EDT • Science • royalexaminer.com
From cockroach milk to stepping on snakes, Ig Nobel awards celebrates science at its oddest

Cockroach milk, kissing evolution and the underwear soil test were among the unusual real studies honored at the Ig Nobel ceremony in Zurich.

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Sep 4 • 9:28 PM EDT • Science • foxnews.com
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From cockroach milk to stepping on snakes, Ig Nobel awards celebrates science at its oddest

Cockroach milk, kissing evolution and the underwear soil test were among the unusual real studies honored at the Ig Nobel ceremony in Zurich.

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Sep 4 • 9:28 PM EDT • Science • wfmd.com
Transcript: How Does Your Brain Know Where You Are? w/ Edvard Moser

EDITOR'S NOTE: In this conversation from the World Science Festival, host Brian Greene sits down with Nobel laureate Edvard Moser, director of the Kavli Institute for Systems Neuroscience in Trondheim, Norway, to explore how the

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Sep 4 • 8:21 PM EDT • Science • singjupost.com
Scientists studying cockroach milk and nose-blowing win Ig Nobel prizes for quirky science

Ten research teams were awarded the satirical Ig Nobel prizes during a ceremony in Zurich, Switzerland, marking the first time the event was held outside the United States due to visa concerns.

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Sep 4 • 5:47 PM EDT • Science • sentinelcolorado.com
Hideki Shirakawa, Who Helped Turn a Lab Error Into a Nobel, Dies at 90

The Japanese chemist played a key role in the discovery of electricity-conducting plastics, largely by accident.

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Sep 4 • 12:06 PM EDT • Science • nytimes.com
Ig Nobel prizes go to scientists studying cockroach milk, nose-blowing, buried underwear, more

Ten research teams were honored at a satirical science awards ceremony that was hosted outside the U.S. for the first time due to travel concerns. A study of cockroach milk was among the winners.

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Sep 4 • 6:26 AM EDT • Science • cbsnews.com
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Scientists studying cockroach milk and nose-blowing win Ig Nobel prizes for quirky science

Ten research teams were honored Thursday at a satirical science awards ceremony that was hosted outside the U.S. for the first time due to travel concerns. Researchers who studied milk from cockroa…

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Sep 4 • 4:24 AM EDT • Science • wreg.com
Scientists studying cockroach milk and nose-blowing win Ig Nobel prizes for quirky science
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Sep 4 • 4:21 AM EDT • Science • yahoo.com
Scientists studying cockroach milk and nose-blowing win Ig Nobel prizes for quirky science

Ten research teams were honored Thursday at a satirical science awards ceremony that was hosted outside the U.S. for the first time due to travel concerns.

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Sep 4 • 1:30 AM EDT • Science • telegraphherald.com
Scientists studying cockroach milk, nose-blowing win 2026 Ig Nobel prizes for quirky science

Ten research teams were honored Thursday at a satirical science awards ceremony that was hosted outside the U.S. for the first time due to travel concerns.

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Sep 3 • 4:59 PM EDT • Science • pbs.org
Scientists studying cockroach milk and nose-blowing win Ig Nobel prizes

The event was moved to Europe after 35 years in the US, with organisers fearing it has become ‘unsafe’ for their guests to visit the country.

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Sep 3 • 4:07 PM EDT • Science • scmp.com
Scientists studying cockroach milk and nose-blowing win Ig Nobel prizes for quirky science

Ten research teams were honored Thursday at a satirical science awards ceremony that was hosted outside the U.S. for the first time due to travel concerns.

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Sep 3 • 1:32 PM EDT • Science • wcax.com
Scientists studying cockroach milk and nose-blowing win Ig Nobel prizes for quirky science

Researchers have been honored for their quirky, imaginative contributions to science at the 36th annual Ig Nobel Prizes

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Sep 3 • 1:02 PM EDT • Science • abcnews.com
Annual quirky science prize is held outside the US for the first time

Researchers have been honored for their quirky, imaginative contributions to science at the 36th annual Ig Nobel Prizes.

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Sep 3 • 1:02 PM EDT • Science • apnews.com
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Rich people more likely to steal children’s sweets, finds Ig Nobel prize-winning study

We round up the winners at awards for achievements that ‘first make people laugh and then make them think’

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Sep 3 • 1:00 PM EDT • Science • theguardian.com
Kissing apes, anti-splash urinals: This year's Ig Nobels showcase surprising science

The Ig Nobel Prizes were awarded this week for humorous yet thought-provoking research. This year, the ceremony came with a twist.

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Sep 3 • 1:00 PM EDT • Science • npr.org
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Kissing apes, anti-splash urinals: This year's Ig Nobels showcase surprising science

The Ig Nobel Prizes were awarded this week for humorous yet thought-provoking research. This year, the ceremony came with a twist.

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Sep 3 • 1:00 PM EDT • Science • kunc.org
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'Soiled' undies and vicious friends research honoured at Ig Nobels

Each year, the Ig Nobel prizes celebrate research that makes you laugh, then makes you think. This year's winners include an "underwear index", a cumbersome kissing definition and why we want friends that will happily stab someone in the eye.

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Sep 3 • 1:00 PM EDT • Science • abc.net.au
Scientists observe Einstein's gravity in the quantum world

An international team including Nobel Prize-winning physicist Professor Sir Roger Penrose has observed a long-predicted effect of gravity on a falling quantum object for the first time. The result shows ...

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Sep 2 • 2:00 PM EDT • Science • phys.org
Ig Nobel Prizes leave U.S. amid concerns about Trump policies

This year's Ig Nobel Prizes will be held in Zurich, Switzerland, Sept. 3.

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Sep 1 • 11:10 AM EDT • Science • bostonglobe.com
Ada Yonath, Chemist and First Israeli Woman to Receive a Nobel, Dies at 87

Her mapping of the ribosome, which led to new designs for antibiotics, faced years of derision, as many scientists saw it as a dead-end effort.

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Sep 1 • 11:02 AM EDT • Science • nytimes.com
LZ Sees Surprising Result in Search for Dark Matter

Key Takeaways Dark matter is the mysterious substance that accounts for the vast majority of matter in our universe. LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) is a world-leading dark matter detector and specializes in searching for WIMPs, or weakly interacting massive particles. A new LZ study found one particle interaction that is difficult to explain with known background processes and could potentially have been caused by a WIMP. LZ continues to run to see if additional data strengthens or weakens the hint of a dark matter interaction. For the better part of a century, people have been trying to understand dark matter. This invisible substance makes up roughly 85% of the mass in the universe but has never been directly detected. Determining exactly what it is remains one of the biggest questions about our world. Now, a new analysis from the LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) experiment has recorded a single particle interaction that researchers have great difficulty explaining with known background signals from normal matter. The result does not yet meet the statistical threshold required to claim a discovery, but is the most compelling hint of dark matter reported by the experiment to date. LZ is an international collaboration of 250 scientists and engineers from 39 institutions. The detector is managed by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) and operates nearly one mile below ground at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in South Dakota. The experiment uses 10 tonnes of ultrapure liquid xenon to search for dark matter and is optimized to look for WIMPs, or weakly interacting massive particles. The results were presented in a scientific talk at the 2026 TeV Particle Astrophysics conference in Japan. The paper will be released on the online repository arXiv and submitted to the journal Physical Review Letters. “We’re very intrigued to see this event in the data, in the region where we expect dark matter to show up and the competing backgrounds are very low,” said Rick Gaitskell, a professor at Brown University and the spokesperson for LZ. “With only one event, we don’t want to get ahead of ourselves. We are not claiming to have seen dark matter. But we have seen something interesting that we want to share with the scientific community for their input.” The LZ collaboration studies experimental data in batches. In the new result, researchers analyzed 220 live days of data collected between March 2023 and April 2024. The collaboration had previously searched this dataset for faint signals from the simplest kinds of WIMP interactions. The new analysis searched for a broader range of possible WIMP interactions that could deposit more energy in the detector. LZ is particularly sensitive to such signals while also minimizing false positives. “This was a detailed study in a region we hadn’t explored within this dataset, and we spent months of additional effort to understand all the possible causes of background events,” said Sam Eriksen, a senior research associate at the University of Bristol in the U.K. and lead author of the study. “We understand our detector and the backgrounds so well that even a single outstanding event, like the one we found, is important. We expect dark matter events to be extremely rare, so only a handful could mark the first detection of WIMP dark matter.” If the anomalous event was caused by dark matter, the WIMP that generated it would likely have a mass of at least 200 GeV/c2 (gigaelectronvolts), or more than 200 times the mass of a proton. It would also suggest a specific type of interaction between WIMPs and ordinary matter beyond the simplest model. The LZ results have not reached “5-sigma” significance, the statistical threshold considered a discovery in physics. The new analysis is 2.6 sigma, meaning there is approximately a 0.5% chance that the event could be explained by known backgrounds. With additional data, researchers can test whether the finding continues to grow in significance or fades away. LZ has already accumulated the world’s largest dark matter dataset and will continue to accrue WIMP search data at SURF, substantially improving their search statistics. LZ searches for dark matter by looking for signature flashes of light from energy deposited in the detector. The collaboration leverages multiple methods to prevent or account for particle interactions caused by normal matter. This includes the mile of rock that shields the detector from cosmic rays from space, a water tank and outer detectors that protect the central detector from background neutrons, and a suite of computational tools that disentangle particle interactions and reject dark matter mimics. “Outlier events in the data are not unexpected, but they usually stand out as a background of some kind when you look at them deeper,” said Aaron Manalaysay, a physicist at Berkeley Lab and the chair of LZ’s Institutional Board. “This is the first example in any experiment I’ve worked on of an outlier that appears valid in every way. Of course, we’re still twisting our brains trying to think if there’s a rare background mechanism we could’ve missed, but it’s thrilling to wonder if this could be the first hint of a dark-matter observation.” LZ is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of High Energy and Nuclear Physics, and the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, a DOE Office of Science user facility. LZ is also supported by the Science & Technology Facilities Council of the United Kingdom; the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology; the Swiss National Science Foundation; the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Dark Matter Particle Physics; and the Institute for Basic Science, Korea. Thirty-nine institutions of higher education and advanced research provided support to LZ. The LZ collaboration acknowledges the assistance of the Sanford Underground Research Facility. ### Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) is committed to groundbreaking research focused on discovery science and solutions for abundant and reliable energy supplies. The lab’s expertise spans materials, chemistry, physics, biology, earth and environmental science, mathematics, and computing. Researchers from around the world rely on the lab’s world-class scientific facilities for their own pioneering research. Founded in 1931 on the belief that the biggest problems are best addressed by teams, Berkeley Lab and its scientists have been recognized with 17 Nobel Prizes. Berkeley Lab is a multiprogram national laboratory managed by the University of California for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Science. DOE’s Office of Science is the single largest supporter of basic research in the physical sciences in the United States, and is working to address some of the most pressing challenges of our time. For more information, please visit energy.gov/science.

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Sep 1 • 10:00 AM EDT • Science • newscenter.lbl.gov
Vitamin C won’t prevent most colds, but it may do one small thing

The belief that huge doses of vitamin C can ward off colds was popularized more than 50 years ago by Nobel Prize winner Linus Pauling. Since then, larger studies have found that vitamin C does not prevent most people from catching a cold, although regularly taking it may make severe symptoms slightly shorter or milder.

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Aug 26 • 8:00 PM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
Purple Clothes Using Nobel-Prize Winning Chemistry Could Keep You Cool With The Power Of Outer Space

Usually you want lighter clothes to stay cool in summer weather, but these purple threads have even more cooling power despite their color.

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Aug 24 • 12:46 PM EDT • Science • iflscience.com
AI needs science’s search history

“Actually, that’s where the gold is,” said Alasdair Russell, my graduate school friend who leads a pre-clinical genome editing group at Cambridge. He was talking about the winding road of science that is omitted from published papers. “When you’re discussing how to do the experiment, and why this way is better than another way, and what does the data really mean? I know what it shows, but what does it mean?” At RAAIS 2026, he described how his group has begun logging the twisting path of discovery as it happens, recording the verbal and written exchanges that normally disappear. Ideas become nodes in a living graph: they branch when a meeting produces two plausible experiments, merge when separate lines of evidence converge, and go dark when someone quietly stops pursuing them. In his implementation, one agent scores novelty, while another tries to learn “how scientists think and how they navigate through a complex world of data,” so that high-potential nodes can trigger deeper investigation. As frontier AI labs deploy agents toward scientific discovery, giving AI authentic scientific taste remains a trillion-dollar dilemma. The bottleneck is that the record we have kept for centuries of science might be insufficient to get us there. The experiments that never make the paper Peter Medawar, 1960 Nobel laureate and “father of transplantation,” asked in 1963 whether the scientific paper was a fraud, and answered yes: the form of the paper misrepresents the thinking that produced it. Sixty years on, the diagnosis is unchanged. A paper presents a clean progression from hypothesis to result to conclusion. Lost along the way are the unconventional theories, the abandoned or unaffordable methods, and the underwhelming and inconclusive data. It reads like a browser history with every dead end deleted: the ten open tabs, the four rephrased queries, the wrong turn down a subforum. All scrubbed, leaving one clean path from question to answer as the canonical path. What has changed since then is that the discarded material is now worth something. No high-impact journal wants these artifacts, but raw trial and error is the most likely source of the training data required to develop scientific intuition, or what researchers call taste. Earlier attempts to capture the discards were motivated by scientific integrity. The Journal of Negative Results in Biomedicine launched in 2002 to publish rigorous studies that disputed established models or exposed ineffective treatments. Its archive preserved negative conclusions after they had become papers, rather than the live alternatives and arguments that produced them. BioMed Central closed it in 2017, saying the mission had been served now that other journals publish null results. A less generous reading is that in fifteen years it published around 200 papers because almost nobody wants to read a negative result, let alone write one up when it will not count toward academic tenure. AI models are different. Even an uninteresting negative result can be useful, provided it is labeled. Earlier this year, Anthropic put a version of this to the test. The company pulled 129 decision points from real Claude Code sessions between January and March 2026, showed models the work up to a human detour, and asked what should happen next. Claude Mythos Preview beat the human choice 64% of the time, while Opus 4.5 managed 51%. The comparison was tilted toward the models because Anthropic deliberately chose moments where the human decision had room for improvement. On 127 further scenarios where the human action was already strong, the models improved on it only about 20% of the time. The study was possible because Anthropic’s researchers work inside a tool that logs by default. The reasoning, detours and outcome are produced in the same working environment. Biology has no equivalent. Its reasoning happens in hallways, at benches, in Slack threads and on whiteboards, while the outcome arrives weeks later somewhere else. The record has to emerge from the work itself. Ask scientists to reconstruct it afterwards and we’ll create another polished account. Subscribe A log is not a label Before any of this becomes training data, a negative result has to say what failed. The first paper published in the Journal of Negative Results in Biomedicine examined 234 negative studies across five leading medical journals. Only 30% discussed statistical power, and half clearly defined a primary outcome. Tell a model an experiment failed, without telling it whether the assay was underpowered, a reagent had degraded, or the hypothesis was simply wrong, and it will learn noise with confidence. Decision histories have a second missing label too. When a lab considers five experiments and runs one, only the chosen branch returns an outcome. The other four are experimental counterfactuals. Researchers call this the selective labels problem: the data reveal results only for the actions someone chose to take. Such a record can teach a model to imitate a lab’s taste, but it cannot establish that the taste was good. It also smuggles local constraints into general lessons. A lab that never ran cryo-EM because it did not own a microscope teaches a model that cryo-EM is rarely the right call. Alasdair’s nodes preserve the candidate set, which is the necessary first step. To be useful, each decision record needs six fields: The evidence available at that moment, and nothing that arrived later. The candidates considered, including the ones dismissed in a sentence. For each candidate: the expected result, the confidence attached to it, and the cost in time and money. The route chosen, and the reason. What happened next. How the evidence changed the scientist’s view. These must be timestamped before the outcome, because hindsight turns uncertainty into inevitability. Disagreement also has to survive. Averaging three scientists into one clean rationale reproduces exactly the information loss we are trying to fix. But there is an obvious failure mode here. Once decisions are logged and scored, people log for the record post-facto. Anyone who has watched an electronic lab notebook fill up with retrospective tidying knows how quickly a research tool becomes a compliance exercise. A record that costs a scientist ten minutes of honest reflection per decision is worth far more than one that costs an hour of performance. A publication initiative called Registered Reports offers a useful starting point. Here, researchers submit their rationale, methods and analysis plan for peer review before the data exist, and the journal commits in principle to publish if they follow the approved plan. Nature has now expanded the format across every field it covers. This approach to paper writing timestamps intent before the outcome, but it freezes one plan. A useful search history must also preserve how the plan changed, which alternatives were rejected, when, and on what evidence. Subscribe Run the runner-up Autonomous labs show what happens when decisions and outcomes are connected in a loop. Liverpool’s mobile robotic chemist ran 688 experiments over eight days in a ten-variable formulation space. A batched Bayesian search used each result to choose the next experiments and found photocatalyst mixtures six times more active than the starting formulations. Every completed experiment changed what the system did next. The robot optimized within a goal and search space that humans had already chosen. It did not decide which scientific question mattered. So what this work demonstrates is narrower, but still useful: a search history pays off when the options return standardized outcomes quickly. Open-ended biology is harder because branches can take weeks and the discarded alternatives may never be run. Some exploration therefore has to be bought. Where two branches are plausible and the stakes justify the cost, a lab should sometimes run the runner-up. Otherwise the record captures what today’s scientists usually chose and stays silent on what they systematically overlooked. A funder could ring-fence a small fraction of a grant for the branch not taken, provided that the decision record and the outcome are both deposited. That costs money, but so does having every lab rediscover the same abandoned path. Test whether taste transfers When it comes time to evaluate if our new AI system exhibits taste, the comparison should run across laboratories and fields. At selected decision points in a live research campaign, we should freeze the six fields: the evidence, the candidates, expected results, confidence, costs and the choice made. Experts then rank the options before the outcomes are known, and those outcomes are checked independently later. We could give models one of two diets - papers alone, or papers plus decision histories - and ask them to rank the next experiment on unfamiliar projects. Then, we score information gained per dollar and week, calibration, and how quickly weak branches are abandoned. If histories improve choices only inside the lab that produced them, they amount to useful organizational memory. If they improve choices on unfamiliar problems elsewhere, Alasdair’s group will have captured something science has never managed to write down: a transferable record of taste. Until that happens, a scientific search history is a promising record, not yet a training set.

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Aug 13 • 11:16 AM EDT • Science • press.airstreet.com
The Odds: The Nobel Collapse
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Aug 11 • 10:01 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
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Scientists Release Biggest 2D Map of the Universe

Key Takeaways The DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys combined more than 263,000 telescope exposures to make the largest 2D map of the universe in visible and near-infrared light. Astronomers can pair the Legacy Surveys map with their own observations to explore our universe and search for rare phenomena. The 2D map serves as the foundation for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument survey to measure the universe in 3D and investigate dark energy. Hold on to your telescopes: the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys team has released the largest-ever 2D color map of the universe. The 5.6-trillion-pixel map contains nearly 4 billion celestial objects, primarily stars and galaxies. The data is available for all to use and publicly viewable through the Legacy Survey Sky Viewer. Astronomers and citizen scientists can explore the map or combine it with their own observations to better understand our universe. Researchers can search for rare phenomena like gravitational lenses, observe fleeting events like supernovae, and investigate two of physics’ biggest mysteries: dark matter, the invisible substance that accounts for most of the mass in our universe, and dark energy, the force driving our universe’s accelerating expansion. The new map builds on earlier versions from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys that have already proved invaluable. To date, more than 1,800 science papers that reference the Legacy Surveys data have been published. “It’s part of the fabric of astronomy research now,” said David Schlegel, a co-lead of the Legacy Surveys and scientist at the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab). “When you’re working with astronomical objects today, you often start by pulling up the Legacy Imaging Viewer to see what you’re looking at.” Covering roughly 75% of the sky in visible and near-infrared light, the updated map provides a deep view of the extragalactic universe not blocked by the dust and stars of our own Milky Way. Researchers expect it will remain the most comprehensive 2D map of our universe for years to come. More than 160 scientists contributed to data collection for the project, and a team of 20 produced the final dataset released today. It was built by combining 263,407 telescope exposures from three ground-based sky surveys: the Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey (DECaLS) at NSF Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory, the Mayall z-band Legacy Survey (MzLS) at NSF Kitt Peak National Observatory, and the Beijing-Arizona Sky Survey (BASS) at the University of Arizona’s Steward Observatory. That was supplemented by years of data from NASA’s Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) satellite mission and additional public data. “For our team, these data are fundamental to our investigation of the expansion history of the universe and the formation of our galaxy,” said Arjun Dey, co-lead of the Legacy Surveys and an astronomer at NSF NOIRLab. “But the skies belong to everyone, and this survey gives everyone the chance to explore the sky and marvel at its wonders.” Here be galaxies The DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys were originally conducted to prepare for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey. The Legacy Surveys’ 2D map is essentially a deep photograph of the sky; it records where galaxies and stars appear and how bright they appear. This crucial step enables DESI to select objects and measure their light in different wavelengths to determine their distances, building the largest high-resolution 3D map ever made. Scientists study the way galaxies have clustered at different ages of the universe to track dark energy over time. In April 2026, DESI completed its original five-year survey ahead of schedule and with vastly more objects than expected. The early results have shown surprising hints that dark energy’s impact may be weakening over time — a paradigm shift that could potentially shape the predicted fate of our universe. DESI expects to publish improved results using their first five years of data in 2027 and is continuing observations into 2028. DESI was so efficient at observing galaxies, the Legacy Surveys map needed to expand. Early on, “it became clear we might run out of galaxies to look at and run out of sky, and we better start doing something about that,” said Schlegel, who also works on DESI. The new Legacy Surveys map has been used to select DESI targets since June 2026 and will guide the telescope’s operations over the coming years. Computing the cosmos Merging hundreds of thousands of images taken on 2,285 nights, each with unique atmospheric and telescope conditions, was a massive computational effort. It took about a year to develop the computer code and eight weeks to process all the images at the Perlmutter supercomputer at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) at Berkeley Lab. Beyond supporting DESI, the Legacy Surveys will be a foundational reference for the next generation of telescopes. As new observatories like the NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory (jointly funded by NSF and DOE’s Office of Science) and NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope come online, researchers can compare their observations with one of the deepest and most comprehensive views of the sky ever assembled. The Legacy Surveys data will also help scientists train artificial intelligence tools to analyze petabytes of astronomical data and accelerate new discoveries. It will be among the datasets used in an astrophysics pilot project within the American Science Cloud, part of the DOE’s Genesis Mission. The DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys are supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of High Energy Physics; the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, a DOE Office of Science user facility; the U.S. National Science Foundation, Division of Astronomical Sciences; and the partner institutions. DESI is supported by the DOE Office of Science and NERSC. Additional support for DESI is provided by the NSF; the Science and Technology Facilities Council of the United Kingdom; the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation; the Heising-Simons Foundation; the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA); the Secretariat of Science, Humanities, Technology and Innovation (SECIHTI) of Mexico; the Ministry of Science and Innovation of Spain; and by the DESI member institutions. ### Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) is committed to groundbreaking research focused on discovery science and solutions for abundant and reliable energy supplies. The lab’s expertise spans materials, chemistry, physics, biology, earth and environmental science, mathematics, and computing. Researchers from around the world rely on the lab’s world-class scientific facilities for their own pioneering research. Founded in 1931 on the belief that the biggest problems are best addressed by teams, Berkeley Lab and its scientists have been recognized with 17 Nobel Prizes. Berkeley Lab is a multiprogram national laboratory managed by the University of California for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Science. DOE’s Office of Science is the single largest supporter of basic research in the physical sciences in the United States, and is working to address some of the most pressing challenges of our time. For more information, please visit energy.gov/science.

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Aug 10 • 11:00 AM EDT • Science • newscenter.lbl.gov
From a provincial lab, a Korean reach for a science Nobel Prize

Junsuk Rho,'s research into metamaterials sounds like science fiction -- invisibility cloaks, teleportation. It rests on bending light at will.

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Aug 3 • 10:03 AM EDT • Science • upi.com
Mario Vargas Llosa by Gerald Martin review – the passions and politics of Peru’s Nobel laureate

This stylish biography of the author traces his journey from left to right, and from ‘posh Lima’ to Cricklewood

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Jul 30 • 2:00 AM EDT • Politics • theguardian.com
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The Trump administration could shut US scientists out of the next Nobel-worthy discovery

The new proposal would restrict international collaboration and give political appointees the ability to decide the most important research to fund, and the power to pull the plug at any time, for any reason.

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Jul 29 • 3:00 PM EDT • Science • alaskabeacon.com
Google Shuts Down Its Nobel-Prize Winning AlphaFold Project As It Focuses On Gemini

DeepMind's award-winning AlphaFold team is no more.

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Jul 29 • 6:40 AM EDT • Technology • engadget.com
Google DeepMind dismantles Nobel-winning AlphaFold team in strategy shift

Landmark project that solved protein folding gives way to a wider race to build AI systems for scientific discovery

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Jul 29 • 12:00 AM EDT • Technology • ft.com
How Trump’s ‘America first’ administration could shut US scientists out of the next Nobel-worthy discovery

A proposed White House rule would give political appointees unprecedented control over scientific funding. One physicist, who helped discover the Higgs boson, explains how the rule would’ve stifled that breakthrough.

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Jul 28 • 6:00 AM EDT • Science • cnn.com
How Trump’s “America First” Administration Could Shut U.S. Scientists Out of the Next Nobel-Worthy Discovery

A proposed White House rule would give political appointees unprecedented control over scientific funding. One physicist, who helped discover the Higgs boson, explains how the rule would’ve stifled that breakthrough.

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Jul 27 • 5:00 AM EDT • Science • propublica.org
Biotech is ‘leading innovative science, not universities’

Sharper mission and team ethos of pharma companies make them more effective than university labs, says Nobelist Fred Ramsdell

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Jul 26 • 7:01 PM EDT • Science • timeshighereducation.com
When It Comes to Fusion, Materials Matter

Fusion at high temperatures powers the sun and, if harnessed, could provide a potential source of energy here on Earth. But controlling fusion reactions has other benefits. The process also generates subatomic particles called neutrons that are used in a range of applications spanning medicine, research, and national security. Now, scientists at the University of California, Davis (UC Davis), and the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) have found that the materials surrounding a fusion reaction can dramatically increase how often it occurs, particularly at low energies where fusion is rare. The study was published July 18 in Nature Communications. Their approach sets up a way to study and engineer nuclear reactions within solid materials, opening a new field of “materials-driven fusion.” Instead of designing materials just to survive the harsh conditions of fusion, researchers might be able to design materials that boost the reaction in specific conditions, similar to the way catalysts speed up chemical processes. “It gives you a new knob to turn that you didn’t have before,” said Arun Persaud, head of the Fusion Science & Ion Beam Technology group in Berkeley Lab’s Accelerator Technology & Applied Physics (ATAP) Division. “If we understand this effect better, it opens the door to engineering new materials that would affect the fusion rate under certain conditions. Someday future progress might enable more compact and efficient neutron generators, which have all kinds of applications, like cargo screening, planetary science, and medical therapy and imaging.” In the experiment, researchers used two different methods to pack deuterium, a heavy form of hydrogen atoms that is often used in fusion, into thin foils of palladium and titanium. They then fired a beam of deuterium ions at the foils at different energies and measured how often fusion happened. Then they compared the rates from the different materials and methods with the “bare” fusion reaction (not in a material). The team found that fusion rates depended on how the deuterium was loaded into the metal foils. The biggest effect was at the lowest energies, below 2.5 kiloelectronvolts (keV), where theory predicts fusion rates drop off sharply. Instead, researchers found a surprising plateau: Some samples showed elevated fusion rates roughly a quintillion times higher than bare fusion reactions. (A quintillion is a 1 followed by 18 zeroes.) Researchers are not exactly sure why that’s happening, though they have some ideas and ways to test them. The electrons and defects within the material might partially shield repulsive electrostatic forces between deuterium nuclei, making it easier for them to get close together and fuse. Tuning the electronic structure, defects, and composition of materials could help make nuclear reactions happen more readily. “It comes down to better understanding the mechanism so that we can try to enhance it,” said corresponding author Jeremy Munday, a professor at UC Davis. “We’ve seen that we can increase fusion rates, but what is the limit? Can we bring it to lower temperatures or energies? There’s obviously a lot of interest and excitement about fusion, so if there’s something we can learn about the physics at these lower energy scales, maybe there’s something we can translate to other areas of nuclear science.” The team plans to explore a wider range of materials and continue probing the unexpected fusion plateau at lower energies. Their work establishes a reproducible experimental platform to study how solid materials influence nuclear reactions, creating a new area of research that links fusion science with materials science and chemistry. “The work shows conclusively that the material environment where fusion occurs at low temperatures is an active participant rather than a passive container,” said Cameron Geddes, director of ATAP. “That adds a new dimension to fusion research.” This work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E). ### Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) is committed to groundbreaking research focused on discovery science and solutions for abundant and reliable energy supplies. The lab’s expertise spans materials, chemistry, physics, biology, earth and environmental science, mathematics, and computing. Researchers from around the world rely on the lab’s world-class scientific facilities for their own pioneering research. Founded in 1931 on the belief that the biggest problems are best addressed by teams, Berkeley Lab and its scientists have been recognized with 17 Nobel Prizes. Berkeley Lab is a multiprogram national laboratory managed by the University of California for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Science. DOE’s Office of Science is the single largest supporter of basic research in the physical sciences in the United States, and is working to address some of the most pressing challenges of our time. For more information, please visit energy.gov/science.

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Jul 23 • 11:00 AM EDT • Science • newscenter.lbl.gov
Susumu Tonegawa Dies at 86; Nobel Laureate Showed How Antibodies Fight Infection

The first Japanese scientist to win the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, he went on to discover how memories are stored, advancing understanding of how the brain works.

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Jul 21 • 12:29 PM EDT • Science • nytimes.com
Freedom, trust and the future of science: Nobel laureates reflect on the ideas shaping tomorrow

Behind every scientific discovery are years, sometimes decades, of fundamental research, failed experiments, uncertain funding, international collaboration and the freedom to pursue questions without knowing where they might lead. The Nobel laureates recently gathered at the 75th Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting in Germany argued that scientific breakthroughs depend on far more than brilliant ideas alone. Those conversations unfolded against the backdrop of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and growing geopolitical competition. The question running through the discussions was therefore broader than science itself: what conditions make discovery possible? ‘Europe is a space of freedom’

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Jul 21 • 3:07 AM EDT • Science • euneighbourseast.eu
Anthropic's life sciences plans: Mystery programs, Nobel hires, M&A and big ambition

Anthropic pushes into life sciences with a $400M Coefficient Bio deal, Nobel hire John Jumper, Claude Science launch and its own drug pipeline.

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Jul 20 • 11:37 AM EDT • Science • endpoints.news
Scientists used children’s ‘silly sprinklers’ to solve a physics problem Richard Feynman could not; the reverse version spins 50 times slower

If you’ve ever watched a “silly sprinkler” in action (those bright, looping contraptions that twist and spray water in wild patterns) you’ve probably just seen them as summer fun. But a group of mathematicians have turned these backyard toys into tools for solving a famous physics puzzle that stumped even Nobel Prize–winning physicist Richard Feynman.

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Jul 19 • 1:27 PM EDT • Science • timesofindia.indiatimes.com
Rudolph Marcus, Who Illuminated Electrochemical Processes, Dies at 102

He received a 1992 Nobel Prize for developing a theory that explained fundamental processes behind photosynthesis, respiration, oxidation and even how fireflies produce light.

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Jul 17 • 1:51 PM EDT • Science • nytimes.com
Sports without politics is a fantasy and the World Cup proves it

From ancient Greece to Nazi Germany, sport and politics have long been intertwined. Nevertheless, we still imagine that international sport can be kept above the fray and serve as a neutral arena where nations compete on merit alone. In this article, diplomacy scholar Geoffrey Allen Pigman argues the 2026 FIFA World Cup shows this is a dangerous illusion. When international sport is left entirely to revenue-maximizing private bodies like FIFA, it doesn't escape politics, but rather surrenders to its worst expressions. With the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics fast approaching, the IOC must decide whether to learn that lesson or repeat the same mistakes. The largest and most lucrative FIFA World Cup ever draws toward its climactic conclusion amidst a swirl of controversy. Team members, staff, fans, and spectators have been denied their right to enter the United States to participate, and US President Donald Trump intervened with FIFA boss Gianni Infantino to overturn a referee’s call that Trump believed disadvantaged the US national team. It is a moment to step back and reflect on what the purposes of international sport mega-events like the World Cup, and international sport more broadly, are, and what they should be. Does international sport serve public purposes? Is there a public interest? Or is it primarily a private endeavor organized by commercial enterprises to entertain the global public (and generate profit in the process), which is occasionally used by governments and leaders for raisons d’etat? Central to the idea of sport is the principle of fair play, which in the international context demands that games be free from political interference. However, it is impossible to separate sport from politics, all claims to the contrary notwithstanding. The most positive political use of international sport through the millennia has been to facilitate diplomacy. The use of international sport for diplomatic objectives has existed since at least the time of the ancient Olympic Games, around which was instituted the custom of the Ekecheiria, or Olympic Truce, between participating states to facilitate fair competition and diplomatic achievements by ensuring that participants could travel safely to the Olympiad. In his seminal work On Diplomacy (1987), diplomacy scholar James Der Derian characterized the objectives of diplomacy as overcoming alienation and mediating estrangement between governments and between peoples. One increasingly important diplomatic tool in the technology-infused media environment over the past century has been public diplomacy, under which governments and non-state diplomatic actors (e.g. transnational corporations) communicate to global publics about their international policy objectives and to shape their global brand image. Political scientist Michał Kobierecki, in his important book Sports Diplomacy (2020), views sports diplomacy as falling broadly within the ambit of public diplomacy, as international sport intimately involves the participation of global publics as spectators and consumers of global media. Diplomacy scholar Stuart Murray and this author, in a 2013 article, distinguish between international sport used for diplomatic purposes and international sport-as-diplomacy, which encompasses the range of diplomacy that occurs as teams and competitors, spectators and fans, and government officials all converge for international sporting events like the Olympic Games and FIFA World Cup. Diplomacy scholar H.E. Chehabi, in a 2001 article on US-Iran sports diplomacy, describes the interaction between spectators and fans at international sporting events as “people-to-people diplomacy,” in which relationships develop independently of governments and their objectives. Diplomacy by the aforementioned definitions is often unsuccessful. Moreover, all too often the tools of diplomacy may be employed by governments and other actors to thwart or oppose the objectives of diplomacy as characterized by Der Derian. Governments routinely use the tools of public diplomacy to disseminate propaganda, spreading misinformation in the attempt to deceive global publics about their objectives and to create misleading impressions about their brand identity. Within sports diplomacy, the term “sportswashing” has been coined recently to describe how governments invest in and promote international sport to create positive global public impressions of their nations and, in doing so, to distract the global public from their deficient records in areas such as human rights and democratic governance. Murray, in his 2018 book Sports Diplomacy: Origins, Theory and Practice, introduces the concept of sports anti-diplomacy, wherein governments intentionally use international sport to advance aggressive and nationalistic objectives. Obvious historical examples include Hitler’s use of the 1936 Berlin Olympics to glorify his Third Reich and the 1969 El Salvador-Honduras football “war.” SUGGESTED READING The beautiful game made ugly By Emily Ryall FIFA argues that it is and seeks to be apolitical in its stewardship of international Association Football (soccer). FIFA policies governing bids to host the World Cup require uninhibited and non-discriminatory access for players, team staff, and spectators of all participating countries to host nations and venues. It became clear soon after Trump returned to power in the United States in January 2025 that Trump’s political intentions and objectives to limit non-US citizens from living and working in the United States and, in numerous cases, even visiting the country, would collide with FIFA’s host nation policies. Beginning soon after the start of the second Trump administration, US federal authorities imposed restrictions on entry to the United States of citizens of between 20 and 40 countries for any purpose, with only limited exceptions. Federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) began arresting non-US citizens in the United States, including persons with and without legal status, holding them in jails, concentration camps, and other detention facilities until they were deported to their home or third countries, where they faced substantive risks to their personal safety. FIFA boss Gianni Infantino, in an effort to ensure the most successful and lucrative World Cup in history, engaged diplomatically with President Trump in an attempt to facilitate entry to the US for World Cup participants. Infantino did all in his power to ingratiate himself with Trump, to the extent of creating a FIFA “Peace Prize,” which he awarded to Trump in December 2025 at a ceremony in the then Trump-controlled John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, DC, on the occasion of the World Cup draw. The prize was an ersatz consolation for someone who aspired in vain to win the rather more prestigious and well-known Nobel Peace Prize. And in the run-up to the World Cup, conditions became worse. In February 2026, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched a war of aggression against Iran, illegal under international law, under the false pretence that Iran’s government was preparing to attack the United States and Israel. During the US aerial bombardment of Iran, US planes bombed Azadi Stadium, the facility where Iran’s national football team trained. As the 2026 FIFA World Cup began, it was clear that Infantino’s efforts had been for naught: the Trump administration would not adhere to FIFA policies governing access to World Cup host nations. World Cup referee Omar Artan, a citizen of Somalia, was denied a US visa to enter the United States to participate in the World Cup. Trump’s government only granted US visas to Iran’s football team ten days before they were scheduled to arrive for the tournament. Numerous members of the support staff for Iran’s team were denied US visas. Iran’s team, which had been scheduled to train in Arizona, was directed to shift its training site to Tijuana, Mexico, notwithstanding that all three of their group stage matches took place at US venues. The US Department of Homeland Security only permitted the Iranian team to enter the US on the day before each scheduled match and then to return to Mexico immediately after playing. Members of Iraq’s and Switzerland’s football teams were delayed for hours by US officials at the US border, and an Iraqi team photographer was refused entry. Spectators and fans from Haïti and Iran were denied entry to the United States altogether. A large number of fans from a range of countries had their applications for US visas rejected. There were multiple off-ramps through which participants could have avoided the negative consequences of Trump’s decisions for the 2026 World Cup. Once it was clear that the Trump government intended to violate the established expectations for World Cup hosts, FIFA could have shifted the matches scheduled to take place in the United States to Mexico and Canada. The three nations were already designated as co-hosts, and host cities and venues had been selected. Once it was clear that FIFA, governed by FIFA boss Gianni Infantino’s dependent and dysfunctional relationship with Trump, would never consider this option on its own, it fell to the national football federations to act. The national federations, particularly some combination of federations of the leading contenders (France, Spain, Brazil, Argentina, Morocco, England, Germany, etc.), could have refused to participate under the US-imposed conditions or, at the least, demanded an ironclad agreement with the Trump government that FIFA policies on access would be respected. ___ International sport is inextricably entangled with diplomacy of different sorts, for good or ill, it cannot be considered to be in the purely private realm and left to revenue-maximizing private actors. ___ Why did neither FIFA nor the national football federations act to protect the interests of players, team staff, referees, fans, and spectators? In essence, the relentless engines of capitalism prevailed over norm observance, ethics, and fair play. The revenue interests of FIFA, sponsors, global media, and host cities won out. FIFA’s managers viewed hosting another World Cup principally in the United States as a veritable pot of gold for FIFA and its collaborators. FIFA has estimated its own revenue over the 2023-26 budget cycle, which includes the 2026 World Cup, at $13 billion, revised up from an initial projection of $11 billion, and 72% higher than the previous revenue cycle. Of that total, FIFA is estimated to have generated $8.9 billion from the Cup itself in revenue from TV rights ($3.92 billion), sponsorships ($2.69 billion), ticket sales ($3.1 billion), licensing rights, and other sources. A joint study by FIFA and the World Trade Organization estimates that the World Cup will contribute over $40 billion to global GDP, including nearly $14 billion in direct visitor spending in the three host countries (but principally in the United States, which hosted the lion’s share of the matches). The FIFA World Cup is now reportedly “the single most lucrative recurring commercial property in global sport.” And yet, notwithstanding the Trump government’s uses of the World Cup for sports anti-diplomacy, and the climate of anxiety that this created for participants and spectators, diplomacy that did not depend upon governments was able to thrive at the World Cup. Examples of successful people-to-people diplomacy were legion, as citizens of towns and cities across the States, as well as in Mexico and Canada, welcomed team members, their families and supporters, to training sites across North America. Fans of different teams joined together in person in stadiums for matches, at watch parties and bars, and at welcome events sponsored by host cities. The joy and camaraderie shared between the citizenry of Boston and Scotland’s “Tartan Army” of fans is but one example of how the “Beautiful Game” brings people together. Friendships forged across continents are likely to endure well beyond the Cup final. Even those achievements cannot be seen as unalloyed, however. As South African football fan Byron Pillay commented to Al Jazeera, “Football is called the Beautiful Game for a reason, for its ability to unite people. But it’s hard to believe in that magic with the politics and war rhetoric off the field of play, especially when one of the tournament hosts is central to that.” Ultimately, the experience of the 2026 FIFA World Cup illustrates that, as international sport is inextricably entangled with diplomacy of different sorts, for good or ill, it cannot be considered to be in the purely private realm and left to revenue-maximizing private actors. As long as there is the possibility of diplomatic progress in mediating estrangement between governments or between peoples, there is a broad and overarching public interest in international sport. Likewise, as it would be difficult to put on an international sport mega-event without international sporting organizations like FIFA and the International Olympic Committee (IOC), global media firms, and companies purchasing sponsorships, public and private interests in international sport must coexist, most likely somewhere on a shifting spectrum between partnership and rivalry or cross purposes. As the World Cup wraps up, the IOC needs to consider its lessons before the scheduled 2028 Los Angeles Olympics if they want to avoid a media-hyped Trump version of the 1936 Berlin Olympiad. The IOC and the National Olympic Committees need to set conditions on and make demands of Trump’s government with clearly articulated consequences for non-compliance, up to and including cancellation of the Games. Time is running out for the IOC, as unlike with the FIFA World Cup, there is no at-the-ready alternate venue for Los Angeles.

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Jul 16 • 8:00 PM EDT • Politics • iai.tv
Scientists overwhelmingly against rule change that would give political appointees say over science grants

Hundreds of thousands of scientists, including Nobel laureates, warn that changes to the way federal grants are approved would greatly damage American science

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Jul 13 • 3:00 PM EDT • Science • scientificamerican.com
Akzo Nobel Rejects Nippon’s $8.5 Billion Bid For Decorative Paints Business

Akzo Nobel's board rejected the €7.5 billion ($8.5 billion) takeover bid by Nippon Paint Holdings—controlled by the family of late Singaporean billionaire Goh Cheng Liang—for the company’s decorative paints unit as it continues to back the proposed merger with Axalta Coating Systems.

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Jul 13 • 6:35 AM EDT • Business • forbes.com
Nobel Prize Dialogue

The 2026 Nobel Prize Dialogue in Seoul asks how AI will transform the future of science, and seeks to explore what these changes mean for our ability to develop scientific solutions to the urgent challenges we face.

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Jul 13 • 6:12 AM EDT • Science • nobelprize.org
Nippon Paint Offers $8.6 Billion for Akzo Nobel’s Paint Business

Nippon Paint Holdings Co. has made an offer for Akzo Nobel NV’s decorative paints business in the past month.

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Jul 12 • 10:47 PM EDT • Business • bloomberg.com
Nobel Prize winner leaving UC Berkeley for new role in China

Omar Yaghi will lead an AI institute at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

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Jul 10 • 1:06 PM EDT • Science • latimes.com
10 scientists and experts who have left US and UK for China so far in 2026

From a Nobel Prize winner to the creator of the first plant ID app, here are some of the scientists and experts who made the move.

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Jul 10 • 3:30 AM EDT • Science • scmp.com
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Nobel-Winning U.S. Chemist Omar Yaghi Will Move to China to Lead A.I. Institute

Omar Yaghi of the University of California, Berkeley, will head an initiative to apply artificial intelligence to the discovery of new materials.

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Jul 9 • 5:15 PM EDT • Science • nytimes.com
Trump's support for Venezuela opposition head Machado wanes

Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel Peace laureate María Corina Machado says she wants to return to her earthquake-ravaged homeland. Yet neither Venezuela's government nor the United States thinks that's a good idea.

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Jul 8 • 3:25 PM EDT • Politics • dw.com
Hungary moves to overhaul university models banned from Horizon Europe

Hungary’s new government is aiming to overhaul the governance model of the institutions and universities that lost access to Horizon Europe and Erasmus+ funds “in a short timeframe,” according to Péter Horváth, the new state secretary for science policy and innovation. “As of today, the two non-university foundation-controlled institutions under my remit have been transformed,” he told Science|Business. “We hope the universities will follow and that this will be enough to satisfy the EU’s demands.”Under the previous government, led by Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party, many academic and scientific institutions were restructured and made into special public trust foundations, with members strongly linked to the government given lifelong mandates and significant decision-making powers with little oversight. The European Commission deemed that this undermined academic freedom and transparency in the country, leading to a ban on 34 institutions in 2022, including 21 universities, which saw academics in Hungary lose access to Horizon Europe grants. The new Hungarian government, elected in May and led by Péter Magyar and his Tisza Party, has promised to dismantle this governance model and restore the institutions to EU programmes. As a result, the European Commission has promised to return access to the Erasmus+ education mobility programme, but so far no concrete agreement has been made on the Horizon Europe programme for research and innovation. Hungary has already made legislative changes in June to allow the institutions to be reformed and set a timeline for the implementation.The non-university foundations, which are mainly cultural centres such as the Foundation for Hungarian Culture or the Makovecz Campus Foundation, will all be dissolved by August 31 this year, a date tied to EU-set milestones that Hungary must meet to unlock frozen funds, with control transferred to relevant ministries. Meanwhile, the universities will have until 31 August 2027. For each university foundation, the government will set the dissolution date and the body to take over operations. There is no final decision on a permanent new model for the universities, according to Hungarian MEP Eszter Lakos, who is shadow rapporteur for the Horizon Europe specific programme, a separate piece of legislation detailing implementation rules for the EU’s next research programme, due to start in 2028. “The aim of the transition year is to settle this with [the universities], not to impose a model, and not to put them under state control,” she told Science|Business. “The goal is to give academic independence back to universities.”There are three models that are most likely to be implemented. One would be a return to a traditional, state-run model. Another could be a newer, more self-standing public institution. A third option would be a reformed version of the foundation models that meet EU standards. According to Lakos, the dismantling of the system put in place by the Orbán government is well underway and if all goes according to plan, Hungary could regain access to EU research money by the start of the next academic year in 2027. “I believe that the Hungarian government is doing the necessary changes so the universities could return as beneficiaries to Horizon from the next school year,” she said. In the meantime, “the universities, institutes and cultural assets carry on under proper public stewardship rather than a handful of unaccountable trustees,” said Lakos. The laws passed in June impose new safeguards: board terms are capped at four years and renewable only once, appointments are made through open competitions and sitting politicians cannot join joining these boards.It remains unclear whether a domestic science funding programme set up as a back-up scheme by the former government following the EU funding ban, called HU-rizon, could be continued. “This programme should never have had to have been established in the first place, but it has proven to be quite popular,” he said. “I am considering continuing this programme with a refined focus on helping international collaborations.”Re-organising the research network One of the first priorities for Horváth and his cabinet is to resolve questions over the future of the Hungarian Research Network, Hun-Ren. The network of academic institutes was taken away from the Hungarian Academy of Sciences in 2019 and turned into a quasi-private organisation, with similarities in its governance to the public trust foundations.Horváth and his team have consulted over 5,000 representatives from the network and the conclusion is broad unhappiness with the directors of all the institutes involved. “We have presented the results to the president and the chief executive of the network and this is currently being discussed,” Horváth said. The plan is to re-integrate the network back into the Academy of Sciences but in an improved way, “learning from mistakes of the past,” he added. The government also wants to reintegrate four humanities and social science research centres into the network that the previous government had transferred to Eötvös Loránd University. The transfer brought sharp criticism from the academic community, with a group of Hungarian research heads, including European Research Council grant recipients, sending an open letter to Orbán warning that the transfer would “cause historically significant harm to the entirety of Hungarian scientific life.” The transfer was “one of the biggest shames in Hungarian research in the past 20 years,” Horváth said. “We want to immediately re-integrate them back into the research network and to regain the trust of these institutions, because the way they were treated was really unfair.”Another pressing issue is the Élvonal Excellence Research and Talent Development Foundation, led by Nobel laureate Ferenc Krausz. The foundation signed a financing agreement with the former government earlier this year for a budget of over €730 million over the next five years. The goal is to create a world-class centre to attract top talent from abroad and to develop local researchers. But there was little transparency about this foundation, and news of its huge budget, which is nearly as much as Hungary’s entire research budget, caused a stir in the media following the recent elections. Another issue is that, as with the foundation boards of the institutes banned from Horizon Europe, there was little-to-no oversight of decisions led by Krausz. “It was an excellent idea but an unacceptable execution,” Horváth said of the foundation. “The fact that this is out of the Hungarian funding scheme, mostly concentrating on one person who decides on the budget is unacceptable for us.”The government plans to merge the centre with the National Research, Development and Innovation Office, the country’s R&D funding agency, with a reduced budget. Horváth is hopeful that Krausz will still be involved. The new government’s R&D goalsA phrase that crops up regularly during the discussion with Horváth is “democratic process.” The new state secretary is determined to involve Hungary’s research community in shaping future policies. This marks a departure from the previous government’s approach, and several people in Hungary’s research community have commented on the openness of the new government. In terms of concrete goals, Horváth and his team already have plans. He wants to create a new science fund in Hungary, based on the best practices of other European countries. The fund would not be tied to annual government budgets and would provide long-term, stable financing. “If we were to succeed in creating this fund, then I think it would be one of the biggest achievements for me in this period of government,” Horváth said. On the innovation side, he is looking into how best to bring in the private sector. “We want to make sure that we are working with the private sector to support innovation,” Horváth said. One of his big aims is to introduce entrepreneurship teaching into high schools. Hungary already has a reputable national academy offering research and innovation training in the field of natural sciences, and Horváth wants to expand this to all disciplines and across the whole country. “One of the main ways to elevate our innovative businesses is to teach our children to be innovative,” he said. “This will probably need ten years to pay off, but this is what we should do. Our aim is to make Hungary strong in our region, and this is what is needed.” Related articlesHungary’s Horizon Europe performance in numbersCommission unlocks Erasmus+ cash for Hungary, Horizon could be next‘Academic Huxit.’ Hungarian researchers speak out on impact of EU ban A more difficult task will be funding. The new government is aiming to increase research spending to 2% of the GDP by 2030, and then increase it to 3% in line with EU objectives. Currently, spending sits around 1.3%. But according to Horváth, the current budget, inherited from the previous government, is “heavily in the negative,” so any plans to increase research spending will have to start next year. Achieving 2% by 2030 already needs a big push, almost doubling the research budget. “This is something we’d definitely like to reach, and something I can see us achieving,” he said. “From the 2030s, I’d like to see an innovative generation growing up that can help us reach the 3% target.” Positivity in the new governmentDespite the many challenges facing Horváth and his team, the mood is positive. “It feels a bit like a start-up right now. Everyone is working 24/7, day and night, trying to do as much as they can. There is a lot of energy,” he said. It is a big change for the state secretary who, like many in his cabinet, is coming from a background in research or business, and not in politics. “Six weeks ago, I was sitting with my microscope and my research PhDs, so it’s been a big change for me,” said the computer scientist, who was previously the director of the Institute of Biochemistry at the Hun-Ren Biological Research Centre in Hungary and worked at the Institute for AI for Health at Helmholtz Munich. But he is relishing the task to transform the country’s R&D landscape. “We feel enormous support from the Hungarian people, but also from Europe,” he said. “We’ve received a lot of letters of support from around Europe. There is big trust there, and huge responsibility on our side. We want to get everything back on track, and there’s a lot to do.”

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Jul 8 • 5:47 AM EDT • Science • sciencebusiness.net
Science should be developed away from being 'exclusive club' - Nobel prize winner to F24
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Jul 6 • 5:44 AM EDT • Science • france24.com
Nobel-winning scientist Omar Yaghi joins China’s Tsinghua University from the US

Yaghi hopes to lead team using AI to create materials to tackle global challenges such as carbon neutrality and water shortages.

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Jul 4 • 9:00 AM EDT • Science • scmp.com
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KATALIN KARIKÓ

She was met with resistance, got demoted and eventually forced to leave academia – but Katalin Karikó never lost focus, doubling-down on her work to harness mRNA for new vaccines and therapies. Karikó’s Nobel Prize-awarded discovery enabled the development of effective vaccines against COVID-19, offering protection to millions of people.

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Jun 29 • 7:40 AM EDT • Science • nobelprize.org
Making Our Own Luck

We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.

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Jun 25 • 4:48 PM EDT • Science • goodscience.substack.com
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François Englert, Nobelist Who Helped Predict the ‘God Particle,’ Dies at 93

His work paved the way for the discovery of the Higgs boson, which explained how particles acquire mass, solving one of the deepest mysteries in physics.

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Jun 20 • 1:39 PM EDT • Science • nytimes.com
Nobel-winning AlphaFold pioneer leaves Google DeepMind for Anthropic

John Jumper, a key member of the team at Google DeepMind for nearly a decade, is decamping for Anthropic.

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Jun 19 • 2:33 PM EDT • Business • businessinsider.com
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New Zealand scientists working on 'R' win major global award

Scientists working on the revolutionary 'R' programming language invented at the University of Auckland have won a top award intended to be a Nobel Prize for statisticians.

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Jun 19 • 8:07 AM EDT • Science • phys.org
NIH Bethesda Declaration report: politics hindering research

'The administration is attempting to change almost every aspect of how science is conducted in the United States,' one Nobel laureate said.

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Jun 9 • 9:00 AM EDT • Science • bostonglobe.com