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8 Cool New Gadgets to Keep on Your Radar
Catching you up on the past week’s most notable product releases.
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MAGA's attack on science is even worse than it looks
In my post on America’s 250-year anniversary, I argued that respect for the individual was the “secret sauce” in the U.S.’ long-lasting preeminence among nations. But it was certainly not the only factor. There were plenty of institutional innovations that helped the U.S. stay on top — economically, militarily, and in terms of the attractiveness of its society. One of these was American science. Today we take things like the modern research university, government grants for science, public-to-private research spinoffs, etc. for granted, but a lot of that infrastructure wasn’t there before World War 2. It was either invented or scaled up massively by the U.S. government in the postwar period, led by far-sighted scientist-bureaucrats like Vannevar Bush (pictured above). If you want to read about this history, a good place to start would be Jonathan Gruber and Simon Johnson’s excellent book Jump-Starting America. Those scientific institutions didn’t exist in a vacuum, however. They were backed by the U.S. government’s abiding faith in the power of science — and, even more fundamentally, by deep popular trust in the scientific enterprise. Science gave us radar and the atom bomb in wartime, and in peacetime it gave us plastics, vaccines, cheap food, and a thousand other things that made our lives easier. Science was also the driver behind American industry — chemicals, aerospace, telecommunications, computers, electronics, and so on. We owed science our jobs, our livelihoods, our comfortable living standards, and our greatness and power as a nation. It’s little wonder that both political parties, even as they fought viciously over other issues, were steadfast in their support of science. For a long time, the only people who distrusted science were a hippie fringe on the left who disliked modernity (or thought they did, anyway), who also disliked American industry and American power, and who subscribed to an early version of degrowth environmentalism. America’s scientific enterprise is still strong, especially compared to the systems in Europe, Japan, Korea, and other developed countries. It has lost a lot of ground to China in a relative sense, but a lot of that is because of China’s incredible growth; as China has poured untold amounts of money and talent into its research labs, spending and output have overtaken the U.S. by some measures. There are a few ways in which China’s rise creates problems for American science — for example, top scientists can choose to work in China instead of in the U.S. — and of course there’s the concern that China’s technological strength will help its military to reign supreme. But overall, China’s rise in science should be good for American science, since American scientists can use Chinese discoveries for free and build on them. The much bigger problem is that the scientific enterprise America built during and after World War 2 is now being threatened with absolute decline. The biggest problem, of course, is that much of the country — the Republican half — has basically lost faith in the scientific enterprise. To what degree this loss of faith is justified is an open question, and deserves to be discussed openly. But the larger point — that the system that powered American dominance is under threat — is true either way. Most Americans still trust science, but MAGA Republicans don’t There’s a myth, popular in right-wing circles, that scientists have lost the trust of regular Americans — either due to the increasingly left-wing composition of academic departments, or to misbehavior during Covid, or to DEI-related research taking over science, etc. This also fits with a wider narrative that Americans are losing trust in all of our institutions. But it just isn’t true. Poll after poll shows that on the whole, Americans still trust scientists and want to spend more on science. For example, here’s a Pew poll from late 2025 showing that although about a fifth of Republicans did lose confidence in science in 2020, two thirds still have at least “a fair amount” of confidence: That same poll found that scientists are among America’s most trusted groups — even better trusted than the military! In fact, Americans trust scientists more than people in most other countries do. Other polls show that although Republican trust in science has dropped somewhat, Republican support for spending more on science remains very strong: A Pew poll in 2023 found the exact same thing: So when MAGA types tell you about scientists losing their credibility, or a drop in trust in science, they’re only talking about themselves. Whatever left-wing politicization of science happened during the Biden administration — and there was definitely some of that — it was not enough to make most Republicans lose faith in the scientific enterprise, or favor research cuts in order to purge unwanted ideology from the system. That doesn’t mean I think progressives should continue down the path of politicizing scientific research. They should not, and Biden made real missteps in this area. Objectivity clearly matters for public trust of science in the long term. But as of right now, there’s no crisis of trust in science, except among the smallish minority of people who are running around screaming that there’s a crisis of trust in science. But despite science’s overwhelming popularity and public trust, Trump and his administration are launching an unprecedented and devastating attack on American science — cutting funding, and forcing science projects to undergo ideological review by government commissars. Trump’s comprehensive attack on science
Where Venezuela’s Earthquakes Shifted the Ground
Radar data from the NISAR satellite show that La Guaira and nearby areas experienced significant ground displacement from the June 2026 temblors.
Why lithium battery and radar pioneers won China’s top science award
Chen Liquan and Ben De recognised for advances in solid-state energy storage and military aviation defence.
UNDER THE RADAR: '27 Quitman QB Jack Sexton
On Wednesdays we feature an in-state prospect who could be flying under the radar of college coaches.
Palantir has a hand in NIH's most ambitious health initiative
The defense tech firm's work with public health data has largely flown under the radar.
America’s employer health insurance is decaying
STAT's Bob Herman examines the under-the-radar crisis brewing in employer-based health insurance.
Rams’ signing of Jaylen Watson is flying under the radar
Jaylen Watson is better than any Rams CB from a season ago but overshadowed by Trent McDuffie
Three Under-the-Radar Trade Targets for Philadelphia 76ers
To optimize a star-studded core, the Philadelphia 76ers must prioritize low-usage role players. These three players offer the chemistry and financial flexibility necessary for a deep postseason run.
Nintendo President Promises To Tackle Pokémon Card Scalpers After Billions Printed Fail To Satisfy Market
During a meeting with shareholders, Shuntaro Furukawa said that the intense world of Pokémon Card flipping is on their radar and mentions requiring government ID isn't off the table
Edmonton Oilers procure 2 under-the-radar players of interest in July 1 flurry
Two players acquired on the opening day of free agency have little name recognition but could be vital to the club in the future.
Love, science and resurrection collide in Christina Lauren’s ‘The Romance Revival’
Under the Radar speak with New York Times best-selling authors Christina Hobbs and Lauren Billings about their latest novel
Family business opens state's first solar-powered manufacturing facility
Meet the under-the-radar family business that today opens the state's first solar-powered manufacturing facility.
Devils Sign Winger Riley Tufte to 1 Year, $850,000 Deal
In one of the more under the radar moves today, the Devils announced the signing of 28-year-old winger Riley Tufte to a one-year, one-way NHL contract. A link to the press release can be found here. A 6’6”, 245lb behemoth, Tufte has been one of the most prolific scorers in the AHL, finishing tied for […]
Portfolio manager says Amex is en route to a huge chunk of business from travelers
Advisors Capital senior portfolio manager Gus Scacco discusses the Dow’s record close and some under the radar stocks on ‘The Claman Countdown.’
Specialized claims the new Tarmac SL9 is faster than the Colnago Y1Rs and Cervélo S5 when using "the only metric that matters"
Specialized says the new SL9 is faster than the Colnago Y1Rs, Cervélo S5 and Factor One when tested against the "the only metric that matters"
How an under-the-radar GOP official is shaping local voting plans in North Carolina
After Republicans shifted key election authorities to State Auditor Dave Boliek, Democrats and voting rights activists have criticized his involvement in early voting site discussions.
Egor Shilov Drafted 43rd Overall By Colorado Avalanche
Penn State hockey commit Egor Shilov was drafted 43rd overall by the Colorado Avalanche in the 2026 NHL Entry Draft: Shilov quickly flew up the NHL Draft radar after an outstanding 2025-26 season with the Victoriaville Tigers of the QMJHL. He had 82 points (32 goals, 50 assists) in the regular season, good for 7th […]
His Fortune’s From the Trash Business. His Basquiats Are Priceless.
In the last few years, waste-management billionaire Patrick Dovigi has become one of the biggest art collectors on the scene. But he’s still under the radar—maybe the shots fired on his home have something to do with that.
‘Under the Radar’ Cowboys Free Agent Predicted for Major Payday
Bleacher Report predicts Dallas Cowboys CB Cobie Durant could land a major payday in 2027 with a standout season. The post ‘Under the Radar’ Cowboys Free Agent Predicted for Major Payday appeared first on HEAVY.
Patriots links 6/24/26: Under-the-radar breakout prospects
Daily news and links for Wednesday
Continental releases Tour de France tyres including exclusive 'transparent' Aero 111
But why does it come with a Grand Prix 5000 S TR?
2026 MCWS finals: Sneaky Sooners claim another national title
After winning a third MCWS, Oklahoma might just be one of greatest under-the-radar college baseball programs.
Scouting Stanford Guard Ebuka Okorie
Ebuka OkorieFrame: 6'2 185 lbsPosition: GuardTeam: Stanford Cardinals2026 Draft Age:Stats via https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/ebuka-okorie-1.html Offense Ebuka Okorie emerged as one of the most productive freshman guards in the country and quickly transformed from an under-the-radar recruit into a legitimate NBA prospect. His offensive profile is built around dynamic scoring, relentless rim pressure, and advanced shot-making ability. Few
Jim Cramer Says Clover Health Was a Good Speculative Pick But Still Prefers UnitedHealth and CVS
Clover Health Investments, Corp. (NASDAQ:CLOV) was among the stocks on Jim Cramer’s radar on Mad Money, as he advised investors to care about where a stock is going, not where it has been. A caller referenced Cramer’s previous comment, calling it speculative, and noted that the company reported GAAP profitability in Q1 2026 and guided […]
Jim Cramer Notes That He Loves “What Ford Is Doing With the Battery Business”
Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) was among the stocks on Jim Cramer’s radar on Mad Money, as he advised investors to care about where a stock is going, not where it has been. Cramer highlighted the company’s new business, as he stated: Last month, Ford Motor rolled out a new business called Ford Energy, which is […]
The Most Important AI Company Isn't OpenAI. It Might Just Be This Under-the-Radar Business
While everyone is debating which model is best, one AI chip company is focused on something different.
Wallenstein: The small business tax hike that almost flew under the radar
Governor Kathy Hochul blocked a proposed cut to the pass-through entity tax credit affecting thousands of small businesses in New York.
Liverpool have chosen their Yan Diomande alternative forward
Liverpool are bang in the mix to sign Yan Diomande. The Ivorian, 19, is currently starring for his national team at the ongoing FIFA World Cup. And the winger emerged on Liverpool’s radar a few mont...
These young scientists are on our radar
These young scientists are making waves in their own ways. Keep an eye on them—great things are ahead
Emery Brown
The computational neuroscientist on how scientists themselves need to better advocate for government support
Scientists Break Major Barrier: Are We Closer Than Ever to Real Invisibility? - Futura-Sciences
From H. G. Wells to Stealth Mode Invisibility has long been a topic that fires up our imagination. From the colorful camouflage suits designed to outsmart surveillance cameras, to military-grade technology meant to dodge radar, humanity’s efforts to disappear are almost as old as fiction itself. While we’re still far...
Jim Cramer Shows Enthusiasm Around Honeywell’s Aerospace Business Spin-Off
Honeywell International Inc. (NASDAQ:HON) was one of the stocks on Jim Cramer’s radar as he cautioned that SpaceX could blow past its opening price. Cramer highlighted the stock’s rally, as he remarked: You know, I’ve been pretty darn enthusiastic about Honeywell’s plan to spin off its aerospace business later this month, and today the market […]
Teladoc Health (TDOC) Stock Valuation As Analyst Sentiment Improves Despite Expected Earnings Decline
Analyst sentiment shift and near term expectations Teladoc Health (TDOC) is back on investors’ radar after analysts turned more positive in their earnings estimates, even as they still expect a 26.32% year over year decline in the upcoming report. This change in sentiment, paired with a recent 1.44% gain that outperformed key indices, has focused attention on how the company’s virtual care and mental health businesses might shape near term performance. See our latest analysis for Teladoc...
I deleted most Android Auto apps, but only 6 earned a permanent spot on my dashboard
I can't drive without these apps
15 Cool New Gadgets to Keep on Your Radar
Catching you up on the past week’s most notable product releases.
Top 2027 high school football prospects in Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania has long been an under-the-radar hotspot for high school football talent, and the 2027 class might be its best in recent memory. This year’s crop features three five-star prospects in the Rivals Industry Ranking — tied with California and just one behind Florida. The class isn’t just top-heavy, though. Twelve players in the state […]
Oscar Health (OSCR) Stock Valuation After Conference Rally And Reaffirmed 2026 Guidance
Oscar Health (OSCR) has been back on investors’ radar after a sharp stock rally following its business update at the Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference, where management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance and highlighted favorable utilization trends. See our latest analysis for Oscar Health. The stock’s rally around the Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference and upbeat commentary on utilization trends come on top of very strong momentum, with a 90 day share price return of 118.52% and a 1 year...
Panthers have an under-the-radar talent on their hands
Carolina has to watch this up-and-coming talent.
Steelers Read & React: Unsung heroes entering 2026
Keep an eye on these under-the-radar Steelers in 2026.
7 Postbiotic Foods to Help With Gut Health
If you’re interested in a healthy gut, nutritionist Jo Woodhurst says postbiotics should be on your radar.
'You can't pull a Biden': Jay Collins keeps pressing for Byron Donalds debate as time runs short in Governor's race
Host Maria Bartiromo said she was showcasing the 'under the radar' fight for the GOP nomination.
Was Sunderland’s 2025/2026 Campaign Underrated Or Unappreciated?
Despite securing European football, the Lads and Régis Le Bris in particular have largely flown under the radar!
One Seahawks CB to watch during the 2026 preseason
Dansby’s ball skills, toughness and smarts are earning him picks but flying under the radar in his first month of offseason activity with the Seahawks
How Nespresso Builds Sustainability Into Its Business Model | MIT Sloan Management Review
Nespresso North America’s CEO explains how responsible agricultural practices help ensure coffee quality.
Jim Cramer Says Hinge Health “Delivered a True Blowout Set of Numbers”
Hinge Health, Inc. (NYSE:HNGE) was one of the stocks on Jim Cramer’s radar on Mad Money as he explained that many investors might be missing out on the market’s biggest winners. Cramer highlighted the company’s latest earnings and the following market reaction, as he commented: Earlier this month, we got a phenomenal quarter from Hinge […]
Science Group And 2 Other Undiscovered Gems in the United Kingdom
As the United Kingdom's FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indices face headwinds from weak global cues and faltering trade data from China, investors are increasingly seeking opportunities in less prominent areas of the market. In this environment, discovering small-cap stocks with strong fundamentals and potential for growth can be a rewarding strategy, as these companies often operate under the radar yet possess unique attributes that may offer resilience amid broader market challenges.
10 Indie Games From 2026 That Feel Like Cult Classics Already
As we approach the midway point of 2026, let's take a look at some under-the-radar indie gems that already feel like cult classic video games.
8 Cool New Gadgets to Keep on Your Radar
Catching you up on the past week’s most notable product releases.
Gritty Socceroos aim to spoil co-hosts' World Cup party
Efforts to boost soccer in the United States rest heavily on the national team's success at the World Cup -- but their Group D opponents Australia have every intention of crashing the co-hosts' party.The United States are favorites to progress, while Australia -- traditionally stronger at several other sports, despite consistently qualifying for the World Cup -- have mostly flown under the radar.
Painting the Growing Season in the Maize Triangle
Radar data from an agricultural area in South Africa, shown in a vivid color palette, reveal crop types and how they changed during the Southern Hemisphere's growing season.
Donald Trump administration tells prosecutors to stand down on Venezuela leader
The Venezuela leader has been on federal investigator's radar as far back as 2018.
Coming Soon: New Oura Features to Help You Stay Ahead of Your Health
We’re excited to bring a new suite of software innovation to the Oura App, including Health Radar, GLP-1 Insights, Live Activity Tracking, and more.
A Look At Flutter Entertainment’s Valuation As FanDuel Launches New World Cup Coaches Corner Series
Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) is back on investor radars after its FanDuel unit unveiled Coaches Corner, a 10 episode World Cup themed series featuring three former United States Men's Soccer head coaches. See our latest analysis for Flutter Entertainment. The latest share price of US$95.75 comes after a 1 day share price return of 2.07%, but the 30 day share price return is down 13.68% and the 1 year total shareholder return is down 61.22%, pointing to fading momentum despite content...
This under-the-radar entertainment stock is trying to break to new highs, charts say
If Live Nation can finally break above its most recent resistance line and push toward new highs, it could complete a bullish formation.
Halide Mark III pro camera for iPhone arrives with three key photography upgrades
Halide’s big 3.0 upgrade has been on our radar since late 2024. Today, the pro camera app has arrived in...
Donald Trump Returns to Hospital for Third Time in 13 Months as Health Concerns Grow
RadarOnline.com reports that President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit the Walter Reed Medical Centre in Maryland on Tuesday for a routine medical and dental checkup. This marks the president’s thi...
10 Cool New Gadgets to Keep on Your Radar
Catching you up on the past week’s most notable product releases.
Up for US top-10 awards: Lancaster doughnut shop, buffets, balloon rides, shopping center
Several Lancaster County businesses, from a doughnut shop to a hot-air balloon company to a shopping-and-dining "village" that's a tourist favorite, will be on the national radar as they compete
The surprising cholesterol-raising foods that fly under the radar
Many foods we consider healthy and natural can actually raise cholesterol levels. But it doesn't mean we should cut them out of our diet entirely.
A Look At Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Valuation As Trading Stays Choppy And Discount Signals Persist
Why Caesars Entertainment (CZR) is on investors’ radar Caesars Entertainment (CZR) has been drawing attention after recent trading left the stock with a market value of about US$5.6b and a last close of US$27.55, prompting closer scrutiny of its fundamentals. See our latest analysis for Caesars Entertainment. Recent trading has been choppy, with a 25.86% 90 day share price return and a 16.94% year to date share price return contrasting with a 1 year total shareholder return that is slightly...
Seahawks assistant GM gets second interview for Vikings job
Nolan Teasley is squarely on the Vikings radar.
World Economic Forum: women’s health gets only 20% of R&D funding. We must seize this $1 trillion opportunity
A new radar developed with the Gates Foundation and Wellcome Leap reveals that fewer than 3% of clinical trials are women-specific.
The Women’s Health Innovation Radar:
Advancing women’s health requires not only scientific progress, but an innovation ecosystem capable of translating discovery into evidence, technologies and scalable solutions that improve outcomes for women globally. Yet many high-impact conditions continue to receive insufficient targeted innovation. The Women’s Health Innovation Radar maps activity from research funding and scientific publications to clinical trials and product development across 10 high-impact conditions, highlighting where innovation is advancing and where critical gaps persist. It offers a foundation to guide research priorities, inform policy decisions and mobilize investment towards areas of unmet need, helping to ensure that scientific advances translate into meaningful impact for women worldwide.
The Women’s Health Innovation Radar:
Advancing women’s health requires not only scientific progress, but an innovation ecosystem capable of translating discovery into evidence, technologies and scalable solutions that improve outcomes for women globally. Yet many high-impact conditions continue to receive insufficient targeted innovation. The Women’s Health Innovation Radar maps activity from research funding and scientific publications to clinical trials and product development across 10 high-impact conditions, highlighting where innovation is advancing and where critical gaps persist. It offers a foundation to guide research priorities, inform policy decisions and mobilize investment towards areas of unmet need, helping to ensure that scientific advances translate into meaningful impact for women worldwide.
11 Cool New Gadgets to Keep on Your Radar
Catching you up on the past week’s most notable product releases.
Letter from the editor: Farewell from the executive science editor
Journalism was probably the last thing on my radar when I walked through the club fair as a first-year. And for most of my time at Tufts, it stayed that way. My best friend Carmen was super involved in that world, but her involvement was the closest I got to that space.
Trump Administration Expected to Tap Longtime ICE Official to Lead Agency
David Venturella’s expected appointment is in line with a push by Markwayne Mullin, the homeland security secretary, to keep his department under the radar and out of headlines.
The National Science Board purge, explained
Amid the many attention-grabbing headlines of 2026, there is a recent one that may have flown under the radar but shouldn't have. On April 24, the White House dismissed the entire 22-person board that ...
Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) Valuation Check After Q1 Revenue Jump And Analyst Target Upgrades
Q1 earnings spotlight and why Sphere Entertainment is on investor radars Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) has drawn fresh attention after reporting first quarter 2026 results that paired higher sales with a sharply smaller net loss, followed by a series of updated Wall Street analyst views. See our latest analysis for Sphere Entertainment. The stock has cooled in recent sessions, with the 1 day and 7 day share price returns both down a little. However, the 90 day share price return of 36.79% and...
Shocking link uncovered: chemicals in plastics tied to breast cancer rise in young women - Futura-Sciences
Well-Known Risks—and Some Under the Radar These days, we have a pretty clear idea of the main risk factors for breast cancer: Older age Family history of breast or ovarian cancer Genetic predisposition Alcohol consumption Smoking Being overweight Lack of physical activity But that’s not the whole story. Other potential...
11 Cool New Gadgets to Keep on Your Radar
Catching you up on the past week’s most notable product releases.
The National Science Board purge, explained
Amidst the many attention-grabbing headlines of 2026, there is a recent one that may have flown under the radar but shouldn’t have. On April 24, the White House dismissed the entire 22-person board that oversees the National Science Foundation. The NSF is an independent federal agency that supports science and engineering in all 50 states and U.S. territories.
Under the Radar: Iowa State’s Gaming and E-Sports Club
AMES — The rise of gaming among college students has turned video games into a competitive outlet, and Iowa State students have found a place to connect through the university’s Gaming and Esports Club. The club gives students opportunities to play competitively and casually across multiple platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices. Members can...
Has the NIL era left Clemson behind? Dabo Swinney doubling down on 'development' amid Tigers recruiting slump
Clemson enters the 2026 college football season unranked and flying under the radar following a disappointing 7-6 campaign. Head coach Dabo Swinney embraces this underdog status, noting his developmental program has always operated with fewer financial resources than its elite peers in the NIL era.
Health and Exercise Science: Caleb Walsh
Wake Forest had never been on Caleb Walsh’s radar. Despite being from Northern Virginia, like a significant amount of the undergraduate population, Walsh didn’t know anyone else coming to campus. He is in a similar situation as he looks forward to graduate school at Boston University. He will move to Massachusetts eight days after graduation...
12 Cool New Gadgets to Keep on Your Radar
Catching you up on the past week’s most notable product releases.
How to get the Super Rocket Radar to face Giovanni in Pokémon GO?
Team GO Rocket battles are some of the most exciting aspects of Pokémon GO, and the ultimate test in this grind is facing Giovanni. Beating the suave Boss of the villainous group lets you catch a Shadow Legendary, often a new force to be reckoned with in both/either the PvE and PvP meta For more […]
A Look At Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) Valuation After Recent Share Price Momentum
Why Sphere Entertainment is on investors’ radar Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) has drawn fresh attention after recent share price moves, with the stock up 1.6% over the past week and showing stronger momentum over the past month and past three months. See our latest analysis for Sphere Entertainment. The recent share price gain to US$144.73 comes on top of a 51.53% 3 month share price return and a very large 1 year total shareholder return, signalling strong and sustained momentum rather than a...
Business Lookahead: Eyeing oil, US jobs, and European earnings
STORY: From high oil prices and the conflict in the Middle East to U.S. jobs data and corporate earnings, here’s what you need to watch in business and finance in the week ahead.:: Crude and currencyOil prices briefly topped $120 a barrel this week to hit their highest level since 2022 as the war with Iran enters a third month.While the U.S. and Iran face pressure to end a conflict that has shut the Strait of Hormuz, the world watches anxiously as the biggest-ever disruption to energy supplies unfolds.For each week the Strait is closed, keeping oil elevated, the greater the economic risks via higher inflation or weak growth or, for some, both. Oil importer Japan just intervened to prop up a yen that has been weakened by the conflict.A new month is now underway and some traders will be mindful of that old adage, "Sell in May and go away.":: Jobs gyrationsAs the U.S. economy grapples with fallout from the Middle East war, Wall Street's radar turns to Friday's April monthly payrolls report.The U.S. economy likely created 73,000 new jobs, economists polled by Reuters forecast. In March, payrolls increased by 178,000, the most since December 2024, but that followed a sharp decline in February.The U.S. employment data comes amid signs of hawkishness at the Federal Reserve, as Donald Trump pick Kevin Warsh prepares to take over as chair with the U.S. president keen on rate cuts.:: Starmer’s statusThursday's local elections in Britain, usually a non-event for investors, could move markets in a big way, with opinion polls pointing to a heavy defeat for Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour Party.A heavy defeat could spark more widespread demands for his dismissal among his own lawmakers and stoke expectations of a successor more willing to run looser budgets. That would bring more bad news for British bonds.::European earningsIt's a big week for European earnings with Shell and Commerzbank among those reporting.On aggregate, profits are expected to grow 3.2% in Q1, according to LSEG I/B/E/S. Under the surface, it's a little bit more complicated. Growth is expected to be driven by just three sectors: financials, tech and energy. The latter is seen as the biggest beneficiary of the Iran war due to higher oil and gas prices.But if the war, and energy surge, persist, the overall outlook for Europe's earnings could turn.
Science news: Return of the river-herring run, Musk vs. Altman and new pancreatic cancer drugs
Under the Radar breaks down the latest science and technology headlines, including communities fighting back against data centers, overheated sharks and more
Cole Wisniewski brings under-the-radar intrigue to Eagles defense
Former Eagles lineman Barrett Brooks highlights what Cole Wisniewski can bring to Philadelphia’s defense.
Jim Cramer on Ventas: “I Think This Is Just a Fantastic Business”
Ventas, Inc. (NYSE:VTR) was among the stocks on Jim Cramer’s Mad Money radar as he discussed the recent sell-off in AI-related stocks. Cramer noted that the company recently reported a solid set of numbers, as he commented: Last night, we got results from Ventas, the healthcare-focused real estate investment trust that makes most of its […]
A Look At Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) Valuation After Recent Share Price Volatility
Context for Flutter Entertainment stock after recent moves Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) has been on many investors’ radars after recent share price volatility, with the stock showing a gain over the past month but a decline across the past 3 months. At a last close of US$109.09 and a market value near US$19.3b, the company sits at an interesting point for readers comparing shorter term performance with longer term total returns, which currently reflect multi year pressure. See our latest...
Veteran defensive tackles remain on New York Giants' radar
New York Giants GM Joe Schoen says veteran defensive tackles remain on the team's post-draft radar.
Advancing Earth Observation at NASA since Release of Earthrise Photo
From cameras pressed against spacecraft windows to the most powerful radar ever flown, imaging technology has taken giant leaps since 1968, but the drive to understand our home in the cosmos has remained.
A Look At Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) Valuation As Upgraded Earnings Outlook Lifts Momentum
Momentum shift puts Sphere Entertainment in focus Recent favorable revisions to earnings estimates and a strong momentum score have pushed Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) onto more investors’ radars, as the stock’s performance has differed from both the broader market and its media peers. See our latest analysis for Sphere Entertainment. Despite a 2.8% decline in the latest session and a 4.4% 7 day share price pullback, Sphere Entertainment’s 30 day share price return of 18.8% and very large 1...
How a Sault High graduate helped shape WWII radar and American science leadership
Bernie Arbic will use a PowerPoint presentation at Bayliss Public Library Thursday, April 23, at 6 p.m. to trace the life of DuBridge, from his days at Sault High School to national prominence in science
12 Cool New Gadgets to Keep on Your Radar
Catching you up on the past week’s most notable product releases.
Renowned physicist alarmed by 'unheard of' number of scientists dying or vanishing now on White House's radar
Multiple scientists linked to UFO research, nuclear labs and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory have mysteriously vanished or died in recent years.
Quality Assessment Report Evaluates Tomorrow.io Precipitation Radar Data
The report adds to the growing documentation on commercial data's contributions to Earth science research and applications.
'New Estêvão'? Palmeiras gem on City Group's radar: details
Young forward Eduardo Conceição, just 16 years old, is drawing attention from the European market.In excellent form for Brazil at the South American Under-17 Championship, where he has already recor...
Assessing Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) Valuation After Its Recent Name Change And Share Price Rebound
Why Six Flags Entertainment Is Back On Investors’ Radar Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) has been reshaped by its July 2024 name change from Cedar Fair, putting fresh attention on a business that runs amusement parks, water parks, and resorts across North America. See our latest analysis for Six Flags Entertainment. Recent trading has been lively, with a 30 day share price return of 22.89% and a 90 day gain of 25.00%. However, the 1 year total shareholder return of 38.98% and 5 year total...
This Action Crime Thriller Just Shot to #1—and the Cast Is Absolutely Loaded
A star-studded crime thriller has quietly climbed to the top of Prime Video’s most-watched list, but, somehow, it flew completely under the radar. Find out more about the chart-topper here.
Assessing Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Valuation As Investors Revisit The Stock’s Recent Performance
Why Caesars Entertainment (CZR) is on investors’ radar Caesars Entertainment (CZR) has drawn attention after recent share price moves, with a 1 day gain of about 1.7% contrasting with a loss of roughly 7.5% over the past month. See our latest analysis for Caesars Entertainment. That short term 1 day and 7 day share price strength sits against a 30 day share price return of about an 8% decline, a 90 day gain of 9.1% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 6.1%. Longer term total shareholder...
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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