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The States Try to Topple WarnerMount…Thus Begins the Local Antitrust Era
(Welcome to the “Most Important Story of the Week”, my bi-weekly strategy column analyzing the most important (but often not buzziest) news story of the last two weeks. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. Please subscribe.) Well, it looks like it’s time for another strategy column. Can I finally avoid writing about M&A? No, it seems I cannot. Admittedly, I’m a week early with this column, since I usually put it out every other week. But this news couldn’t wait. This will make three “Most Important Stories” in a row with a merger or acquisition as its centerpiece. First, Roku-Fox (an acquisition), then Comcast-NBCUniversal (a divestment!), and now the State AGs and the WGA’s lawsuits against Paramount’s pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery (antitrust). M&A is usually the “most important” topic any given week, simply because a giant company merging or breaking up (or preventing those outcomes) can have the biggest impact on the streaming board. If you think about these companies as players in a game, changing the number of players is one of the biggest changes you can make. I shouldn’t really complain, either, since this lawsuit is very good news for customers and suppliers (econ speak for talent, workers and indie studios in Hollywood). So let me answer some questions about this potential trial, along with (shudder) making some heavily caveated predictions. I’ll also look at whether Hollywood must consolidate, whether or not the states can win, trouble at X-Box, Netflix’s YouTube binge, and more. Plus, I have five images that visualize this merger and the harm, including three brand new data looks you’ve never seen before. Subscribe Most Important Story of the Week - Can The States and the WGA Stop Hollywood’s Consolidation (Crisis)? If every other newsletter and news outlet is writing about the same story, I try to avoid writing about it as well, but I can’t ignore a story this consequential. The story of the last year was the fate of Warner Bros. Discovery, and this development potentially extends that saga into 2027. As I tried to figure out my angle, I realized, like my last column, I’m again faced with a series of questions. These questions, though, are much more forward-looking. Will the states win? Will the WGA win? If so, what happens to Warner Bros. Discovery? Either way, will this chill the market for future mergers? So you know what that means: predictions. About the future, no less, the hardest thing to predict.1 Just remember: nothing here comes with a guarantee. And the more confident someone is in their predictions, the less you should trust them. This situation is incredibly fluid, nuanced, uncertain and tenuous. So let’s try to explain what may happen. Question: Why File this Lawsuit? I’ll admit, a few months back, I was fairly pessimistic about the fate of this lawsuit. Rumors had started bubbling up that the state Attorneys General (in particular California) wanted to settle with either some minor divestments (usually CNN) or behavioral remedies. And that tracked for me: the states usually settle lawsuits, like the recent John Deere right-to-repair suit. Yet, they plan to fight this. (As they did the LiveNation-Ticketmaster monopolization trial and the Nexstar-Tegna merger.) Honestly, that also makes a ton of sense. Frankly, this move is just good politics for these State AGs. Most are still running for higher and higher office in blue states—some folks have emphasized that only Democratic AGs joined this suit, but given the Ellison/Trump ties, and fears of retribution, that tracks—and a high profile case like this will help them move up the electoral ladder, especially since Paramount and its leadership (the Ellisons, father and heir) have sided with the other side of the political aisle. That makes them unsympathetic to Democratic voters and Hollywood workers in particular. Why did this lawsuit happen? In addition to the very real concerns about industry consolidation, this is why. That said, I don’t think we would have seen this lawsuit for Netflix and Warner Bros., simply because they’re more sympathetic and aligned with Democrats. But those consolidation concerns are real. The “town”—meaning Hollywood and such—really is seeing the damage of mergers on this industry. That’s why the WGA also filed its own lawsuit in defense of workers as well. (Wildcard: What about Europe? Will they try to stop the deal, too? There have been some rumors out of the UK they may try to fight the deal, and UK enforcers just stopped a Getty Images-Shutterstock tie up, so there is precedence. This argument could go either way, though. On one hand, the EU doesn’t need to step in, cause they states are handling it. On the other hand, this could make the EU’s case easier. Just imagine if both sides coordinated. I’ll simply say, “We’ll see!”) Question: Will The State AGs or the WGA Win? Can the state AGs play David to Paramount-Skydance’s Goliath here? That’s really the whole thing, isn’t it? If you know this result, you could make a lot of money. When things are uncertain, it’s tempting to shrug and say, “Eh” meaning it’s a 50/50 proposition. I wouldn’t, though. When in doubt, you should expect that the merging parties succeed. AT&T did successfully buy Warner Bros., after all, and Disney bought Fox without any challenges. Many judges are extremely sympathetic to mergers, and I’d bet the state AGs get a judge who will allow the merger. (Even Obama-appointed judges often allow mergers.) As I understand it, we’ll see two main attacks. First, theatrical films. The AGs are arguing that, when it comes to share of box office and the number of both “wide releases” and blockbuster (or “tentpole”) films, the merging parties will have over 27% market share. Now, the Supreme Court once ruled from on high that any merger that exceeds 30% is presumptively illegal, but that’s guidance, not an ironclad bar. Still, the states will have to argue that this is close to having too much power, and with that power, this will likely further worsen the theater/studio splits in particular. Indeed, as Matthew Stoller pointed out, “just five studios are responsible for 95% of all blockbusters; if this merger goes through, then Paramount and Disney will control 60% of that.” So yes, movie studios will be very concentrated after this merger. Want me to visualize some of that? Well, here’s the share of films that grossed over $200 million at the domestic box office since 2022. (Note: this isn’t all films released in over 3,000 screens, but it is a good look at market power.) First, here are the 43 films by studio: Notice all the blue (Disney), orange (Universal), and purple (Warner Bros)? Yeah, those studios are powerful, and this combines Paramount with one of them. Here’s the look by studio and share of the films that grossed over $200 million: Now, if you look at that and also think, “Huh, should we break up Disney?” I’m with you. I’ve seen some folks poo-poo this idea that this is a real category, but it is! For an upcoming article, I’ve been pulling data on the share of top 100 films at the box office as a share of total box office, and it’s massive. Here’s the chart: (This analysis looks at The-Number’s top 100 films and total domestic box office each year.) To be clear, tentpoles make up 80.7% of the box office each year, so I do think it’s a genuine market. (To be clear, films grossing over $50 million make up 80% of the domestic box office, and films grossing over $100 million make up 64.1%.) I mean, the top 100 films at the box office make up 95% of each year’s grosses. Worse, the combined studios will likely cut output to flex that market power. Everyone can just look at what happened to Disney and Fox to see the precedent. (With fewer films, the remaining theaters have to give more for those few films that remain.) Here’s an image I’ve used a lot, the share of wide-release films from Disney and Fox over time: The AGs will also argue that this consolidation will also impact the cable industry. In this case, the consolidation is actually worse, but that environment is…complicated. Paramount will argue that the cable industry is shrinking. That said, predictions that cable will “go to zero” also don’t look very well supported by the data, as the declines are shrinking, meaning “cable” or “vMVPDs” will likely stabilize at some point. Can the state Attorneys General win on those two main arguments? I honestly don’t know. Again, I’d bet no, since history in general supports that, but it depends on the judge/jury and how they interpret the arguments. Notably, Paramount won’t face accusations about monopoly power in other areas, like streaming, news, sports rights, or vertical integration. I tend to disagree with leaving out sports rights, but I also see the appeal for a simpler case. The states also aren’t really pushing novel theories about labor harm either, which should help. (By the way, Sean McNulty at The Ankler wrote a great run through of potential options, and Capitol Forum also wrote a great paper on theatrical consolidation. Both these pieces predated the lawsuit. Matthew Stoller is also out with his analysis of the pros and cons of the case too.) In some ways, the WGA’s case is even stronger. Quoting Sean McNulty’s summary: “The WGA is citing WARNAMOUNT as crossing a 30% market share in multiple sectors, a number that the Supreme Court has precedent for deeming “presumptively anticompetitive” in a market. According to the WGA numbers, WARNAMOUNT would have represented: - 35% of film writing jobs between 2021 and 2024 - 36% of TV writing projects between 2022 and 2025 - 38% of overall deals between 2021 and 2024” Notably, antitrust enforcers did win recently in the Penguin-Simon & Schuster merger by focusing on labor impact, so don’t count this thinking out. (Wildcard: Will the states try to get a jury trial? Most likely no, they’ll let a judge handle it. If I’m them, though, I’d try to put this in front of a jury. Juries tend to understand monopoly power in a more realistic way than judges faced with legions of economists.) Question: What if They Win? What if They Lose?
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Health trackers offer a ton of data. Here are the metrics doctors want you to pay attention to
We’re all wearing Apple Watches, Oura Rings, and FitBits now. Are they doing us any good?
Health trackers offer a ton of data. Here are the metrics doctors want you to pay attention to
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The Fitbit Air takes a smarter approach to the AI health dumpster fire
To be fair, the bar for AI consumer health is in hell.
The Fitbit Air takes a smarter approach to the AI health dumpster fire
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Google Store Prime Day: Big deals on Pixel 10, Watch 4, Fitbit, & more
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People taking GLP-1 weight loss drugs like Ozempic started moving less
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I reviewed the Fitbit Air, and it (almost) completely won me over
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Japan's Asics to spin off Onitsuka Tiger business
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Here's how Apple Watch Series 11 stacks up against Oura, Fitbit, and Whoop, per WSJ
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The Fitbit Air is great, but Google's AI is too nice to be your "coach"
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NFL fans believe Browns won the Myles Garrett trade
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Fitbit Air Can Turn Into a Watch and the Trick is Super Easy
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Google releases Fitbit Air blueprints to let anyone make bands, accessories
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Google Home Speaker gets June release date from one retailer
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Fitbit Air Review: Affordable, Minimalist Health Tracking | All Things Mobile
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Fitbit users complain about forced migration to Google Health app
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Review: Fitbit Air is a near-perfect fitness tracker with an imperfect AI Health Coach
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After Rich Colleges Raid Basketball Team, School Exits D1 Sports
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7 first things you should do with the Google Fitbit Air
I changed these settings and set up these features immediately after unboxing my Fitbit Air.
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Google Health roadmap details bug fixes and improvements amid backlash from Fitbit users
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Google Health is here, but a lot of people want their Fitbit app back instead
How do you like your new AI health coach?
Google Health is here, but a lot of people want their Fitbit app back instead
How do you like your new AI health coach?
Google Health for Android rollout was sped up as Fitbit Air buyers were struggling to pair
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Google’s Fitbit Air Gives Whoop Some Serious Competition
The Fitbit Air, a new $100 screenless wearable from Alphabet Inc.’s Google, represents a major evolution in what consumers can expect from fitness trackers as tech companies race into an era of personalized health and artificial intelligence-powered wellness insights.
Google’s Fitbit Air Gives Whoop Some Serious Competition
The Fitbit Air, a new $100 screenless wearable from Alphabet Inc.’s Google, represents a major evolution in what consumers can expect from fitness trackers as tech companies race into an era of personalized health and artificial intelligence-powered wellness insights.
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Google just replaced another major piece of Fitbit's identity
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Google Health 5.0 rolling out with new stats widget on Android
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Whoa! Netflix is Sending Narnia Heading to Theaters...What This Means for the Future of Film
(Welcome to the “Most Important Story of the Week”, my bi-weekly strategy column analyzing the most important (but often not buzziest) news story of the last two weeks. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. Please subscribe.) Here’s a funny thing about the debate over whether streamers should release their movies in theaters first: Both sides think the other side represents the “conventional wisdom”. If you’ve been reading me for any amount of time, or even just scanned my front page, you know I think movies make more money by having a robust theatrical window compared to going straight-to-streaming. I’ve published thousands of words on this topic. And for years, I felt like I was standing up to a wave of opposition. See, while the “put your films in theaters to make money” take was obvious at any point before 2019, post-streaming revolution, most of the trendy thinkers took the opposite point of view. Big names argued that Netflix putting their film straight-to-streaming (“S-to-S” from here on out) actually made more money. Netflix was “disrupting” theaters, just as they disrupted Blockbuster Video, and since innovation is always good, this too was a great idea. This thinking then leaked into the mainstream business outlets like the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg. I read many articles whose take boiled down to “Netflix makes tons of money from S-to-S releases” and “theaters were in structural decline” anyways. Covid-19 shutting down theaters and the 2023 strikes shutting down film production seemingly justified this point of view, as the box office struggled to return to 2017-2019 heights. Yet I’ve also read folks arguing the opposite point: the conventional wisdom says to put films in theaters! From some writers’ points of view, “everyone” actually agrees/agreed with my “send your films to theaters” take—especially the stodgy traditional studios—and folks still didn’t understand Netflix’s genius. I feel like, for the last two years, many people have argued this point as if it’s conventional wisdom. You know what? I may have been wrong. At this point, the “S-to-S strategy makes money” might be the minority viewpoint. Especially with the news this month that Netflix will put at least one film—Greta Gerwig’s Narnia film The Magician’s Nephew—in theaters in 2027 for a full 49-day run is big news. So that’s the story of the week, but I’ll also explain why they’re making this move now and why Netflix may not completely embrace theaters, along with other topics, like how I don’t buy Disney’s “super app” strategy, the latest good news out of the unions, my take on the latest attacks against free speech, and a whole lot more. Let’s get started. Subscribe Most Important Story of the Week - Netflix Goes to Theaters! Listen, I promise not to victory lap too hard today. As I just wrote, I’ve argued against sending films straight-to-streaming for—checks calendar—eight years now. Since 2018. Yikes. That’s a long time. And for years, others painted my thinking as “conventional” in that I was standing up for the status quo against trendy, cool disruption. And that’s not cool! But math is math, and I never could make the S-to-S numbers work. The only thing that ever enabled that model was Wall Street’s brief exuberance for it. It seems like the heads of Netflix now agree with me. (There were always rumors that former head of film for Netflix Scott Stuber argued internally for theatrical releases as well.) As they announced: “The Magician’s Nephew_—the first film in a Narnia series of films—will open on 12-Feb-2027, with a 49 day theatrical exclusive run.”_ I’m a little surprised at how little coverage this big change actually got. Credit to Bloomberg for leading with it and Matt Belloni’s The Town for highlighting it with the provocatively titled podcast “Hell Hath Frozen Over”. But after that? Instead of getting as much coverage as, say, the FCC’s latest egregious crackdown on free speech, this news story got crickets. But it’s massively more important for the future business of entertainment. So let’s start with the obvious question… Why Put Your Movies in Theaters? So…why should Netflix put (some!) of their movies in theaters? Well, I’ve already written that in a very, very, very long article from 2022: [ ](https://entertainment.substack.com/p/the-data-is-in-theatrical-films-massively) [ The Data Is In: Theatrical Films Massively Outperform Straight-To-Streaming Films ](https://entertainment.substack.com/p/the-data-is-in-theatrical-films-massively) Entertainment Strategy Guy · April 5, 2023 [ Read full story ](https://entertainment.substack.com/p/the-data-is-in-theatrical-films-massively) To summarize, theatrical runs make much more money, especially blockbusters, because they earn more money per viewing,1 and that helps boost home entertainment sales. Theatrical films also perform as well or better than the streaming-only films. Now, partially this is driven by increased marketing for said films, but said marketing ultimately boosts the awareness of the movies and drives improved streaming and library performance as well. Again, I’ve made this case after reviewing the economic models and streaming data for years. Just last week, Emily Horgan also made the case for kids films! Yes, it is probably conventional wisdom, but that’s also because it’s true! I’d also argue we’ve seen a lot of data in the various studios’ behavior. As I’ve noted before, the more a studio needs to make money, the likelier they are to put films in theaters. As such, Disney, Universal, Warner Bros., Paramount and Sony all send their major films to theaters. Even if they once made a big S-to-S push (*cough* Disney *cough*), they’ve since relented and returned to theaters. The tech companies don’t need to make money, per se, so it took them years to embrace theaters. Apple doesn’t need to make money because it doesn’t disclose their (likely) Quibi-sized losses each year. (They fear bad press more than losing money.) Amazon announced two years ago that they planned to make Amazon-MGM Studios/Prime Video profitable on its own, and guess what? Now they’re putting films in theaters. That leaves Netflix. They’re in between the “no need to make money at all” and the “desperately need to make money to offset linear TV declines”, so they had less pressure to put some films in theaters. Plus, for years, they were the sexy disruptor, and Wall Street rewarded them for that. (Honestly, they still do.) Yet, even Netflix likely saw the money they were leaving on the table (I’ve estimated it at an easy billion dollars before) so they changed their course. I heard one pundit argue that, because Netflix already makes so much money, they don’t need to make more money, which sort of goes against everything I’ve ever learned about business and economics. Again, to be super-nuanced, sending “films to theaters” does not mean EVERY film. TV movies have been a thing for decades. Lifetime films, Hallmark holiday films, Disney Channel Original Movies, and so on, don’t need theatrical runs. But films above a certain budget level (say $25 to 50 million) almost certainly need theaters to maximize their revenue. The Scenarios (with a Dose of Skepticism) Now time for some skepticism: it won’t surprise me at all if Netflix re-changes course. Specifically, Netflix announced that their Narnia film will go to theaters. And I’d bet anything we see KPop Demon Hunters 2: The Huntering2 also goes to theaters, cause it’s the surest hit outside of a Disney animated sequel right now. But how much does Netflix truly commit to theaters? They’ve already tried to emphasize that this is a one-off move. I see three broad scenarios:
6 Of The Best Wearables For Sleep Tracking
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L.A. County health officials confirm fifth measles case this year
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Fitbit Air: 24 Hours Later First Impressions
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Amazon's discounted Fitbit Air deal comes with a free band - but I'd act quick
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Google Health Premium vs. Basic Features Comparison
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Fitbit 4.69 rolls out with redesign of focus stats and logging
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Here’s a First Look at the New Google Fitbit Air
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6 unique Google Fitbit Air features that could make us switch
The upcoming Fitbit Air has some features that should make smartwatches and Whoop sweat.
Fitbit Air vs. WHOOP Size Comparison
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Fitbit Air has status light & double-tap gesture, gets Whoop size comparison
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Google Health kills the Fitbit we knew, but maybe that’s not a bad thing
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Google Finally Launched the Fitness Tracker Apple and Whoop Wouldn't
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Google Fitbit Air preorders come with a second band for free
An easy way to save on an accessory you might otherwise buy.
Deals: Fitbit Air pre-order offers, Pixel 10 Pro/XL up to $500 off, Legion Go 2 Windows handheld $482 off, more
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Steph Curry Gets a Special Edition Fitbit Air
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What’s the role of a simple fitness band in the AI health era?
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Google unveils Whoop-like screenless Fitbit Air
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Google unveils screenless Fitbit Air and Google Health app to replace Fitbit
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Google's Screenless Fitbit Air Relies on Gemini to Be Your Personal Health Coach
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Google Is Rebranding the Fitbit App to ‘Google Health’
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‘Google Health’ replaces Fitbit app as new ‘Premium’ plan joins AI Pro
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Google announces $99 Fitbit Air for screen-less, all-day tracking
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Google’s taking a big swing at AI health with the Fitbit Air
RIP Fitbit, long live Google Health?
Google Is Rebranding the Fitbit App to ‘Google Health’
Google is sunsetting Google Fit by year’s end. While Fitbit remains very much alive, the rebranded Google Health app is your one-stop shop for all things health and fitness.
A new era for your health and wellness
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Google's answer to Whoop could debut as soon as tomorrow
The new Fitbit Air could debut ahead of Google I/O with a minimalist design.
Google teases Fitbit Air launch on Thursday, May 7
Google started teasing the Fitbit Air at the end of March, and the screen-less wearable looks to be launching tomorrow.
Military Vets Finally Have a Launchpad for Their Business Dreams in SA
San Antonio is about to become the first city in the country to offer veterans — and their families — a direct path to owning their own business. District 9 Councilwoman Misty Spears is behind a new Small Business Accelerator Program that connects vets with mentors, funding resources, and even a pitch competition — and it's already gotten the green light from the city. Army veteran Melanie McCoy knows firsthand how lonely and confusing starting a business can be without support. Now she's helping lead the charge with a new non-profit called Supply SA, designed so no vet has to figure it out alone. With 75% of San Antonio's economy powered by small businesses, this program could be a game-changer for the whole city. #VeteranOwned #SmallBusinessSA #SanAntonio #MilitaryEntrepreneur #VetBiz
Fist of the North Star (2026) Anime Review: A Mostly Unnecessary Remake
A look into the new Fist of the North Star series which premiered on April 11, including a full review of the series and what to expect.
5 Cheaper Android Smartwatch Alternatives To The Apple Watch In 2026
Cheaper Android alternatives to the Apple Watch include the Galaxy Watch 8, Pixel Watch 4, Fitbit Sense 2, OnePlus Watch 2R, and CMF Watch 3 Pro.
Fitbit 4.68 rolling out sleep editing, motivational Coach messages, more personalization
In addition to the Sleep Score redesign, Fitbit this week is rolling out version 4.68 of the Android and iOS apps as a sizable update.
“A Picayune Detail:” Nazi Science Heads West
As Allied forces crossed the English Channel during the D-Day invasion of June 1944, some 10,000 intelligence officers known as T-Forces were right behind the advance battalions. Their mission: seize munitions experts, technicians, German scientists and their research materials, along with French scientists who had collaborated with the Nazis. Soon, a substantial number of such scientists had been picked up and placed in an internment camp known as the Dustbin. In the original planning for the mission, a prime factor was the view that German military equipment – tanks, jets, rocketry and so forth – was technically superior and that captured scientists, technicians and engineers could be swiftly debriefed in an effort by the Allies to catch up.
Fitbit Air leak points to a May launch and plenty of color options
Fitbit Air could take on Whoop with a one-time $100 price tag.
Fitbit Air reportedly launching May 16, could cost around $100 with several bands & colors
Over the weekend, we first reported the name of Google’s Whoop competitor as “Fitbit Air,” and now more details are...
Sources: ‘Fitbit Air’ is a screen-less Whoop competitor debuting with ‘Google Health’ subscription
At the end of March, Google started teasing a screen-less Fitbit band. 9to5Google can now report that this device will...
Steph Curry is testing Fitbit's screenless Whoop competitor
The NBA's greatest shooter has been not-so-subtly showing off the potential Whoop killer.
2026 NFL Draft final combined big board: Buckeyes defender is No. 1, with Fernando Mendoza right behind him and Rueben Bain Jr. top-5
Deadline Hollywood
CBS Entertainment Chief Addresses 'Watson' & 'DMV' Cancellations: "We Had To Make Tough Decisions" Read more below.
Avoid these common small business tax mistakes
Block Advisors Strategy and Small Business Program Manager, Latasha Randle, chats with Host, Elizabeth Gore, about how self-employed entrepreneurs can simplify taxes, retirement, and healthcare planning. Randle shares practical advice on staying organized year-round, maximizing deductions, and building long-term financial security through proactive planning.
Google’s new Fitbit band has continued hiding in plain sight, software too [Gallery]
Google is working on a new Fitbit tracking band in the same vein as the popular Whoop band, and it’s...
Colorado's Deion Sanders eager to be more hands-on heading into next season after health concerns
Colorado coach Deion Sanders was hands-on as he watched his team scrimmage Saturday at the spring game.
Wearables need to cross from consumer to health care market
They could repeat Fitbit's story if they don't cross over from consumer to health care products.
Democrats eye 2028 for bigger health care push
WASHINGTON – As Democrats vie to take control of Congress in the midterms this fall, their main message on health care policy is fairly straightforward: undo Republicans’ Medicaid cuts and restore the health care subsidies that lapsed at the end of last year.
Fitbit 4.66 for Android rolling out water, food, & mood logging, more
Fitbit is rolling out version 4.66 of the Android app with all the new Public Preview features announced earlier this week.