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'Atmosphere inside Stamford Bridge growing quieter with each game'
There were chants of "we want our Chelsea back" during a protest march before kick-off - then the chorus spread to the stands during the second half of the defeat by Manchester United. The frustration from supporters is understandable, given Chelsea have now lost their past four Premier League games without scoring - their joint-longest run since November 1912. Chelsea head coach Liam Rosenior admitted his side face a "mountain to climb" in their pursuit of Champions League qualification, after the latest 1-0 loss to United left them four points off the top five, having played a game more.
How to love someone of the opposite party
A progressive Gen Z woman shares her experience dating a Republican, emphasizing dialogue and understanding without compromising core values.
Jim Nowlan: Profiles in courage are in short supply in politics
Without political capital, leadership is irrelevant. Money has become the decisive political capital that can win elections and sustain officials.
How Pa.'s falling school vaccination rates and enforcement failures put thousands of children at risk
A six-month Pittsburgh Post-Gazette investigation found that school leaders have allowed thousands of children into schools without all the required vaccines even though they had no special exemptions that let them forgo the shots on religious or philosophical grounds — a violation of state vaccine laws.
Rising health costs push some older adults to skip the doctor
Without federal financial help, some in the 50 through 64 age group say they’re wrestling with whether to delay care until they qualify for Medicare.
🚨 XIs confirmed: crisis clash at Stamford Bridge
Stamford Bridge becomes the stage this Saturday (20:00 BST) for a clash between two sides under pressure. Liam Rosenior’s Chelsea are going through a deep crisis after three straight defeats without...
How to Learn Python for Data Science Fast in 2026 (Without Wasting Time)
What I wish I did at the beginning of my journey
This Ukrainian drone company fears missing Iran war moment
Ukraine's battle-proven drone interceptors are seeing new interest. One maker worries that without being able to export, it will miss the window.
Paul Gosar's rally appearance reignites health speculation
Arizona Congressman Paul Gosar's appearance at a Turning Point USA rally has renewed public speculation about his health, with observers citing slurred speech, unsteady posture, and difficulty completing sentences. Social media users suggested, without evidence, possible neurological conditions, echoing similar concerns raised in past years. Gosar has consistently denied such rumours, attributing symptoms to arthritis, spinal issues, and past surgeries.
Sentinel Sports: MEHS boys basketball team's historic state tournament
March was a big month for Mt. Edgecumbe sports. The high school's boys basketball team won their first state championship, ending a 75-year history without a title.
SLED: Upstate man charged with selling alcohol without permit at Myrtle Beach business
Officials said Dukes was booked in the J. Reuben Long Detention Center in Horry County.
Serie A official line-ups: Sassuolo vs. Como
Como hope Nico Paz, Martin Baturina and Alvaro Morata can inspire them to victory against a Sassuolo side without Domenico Berardi.It kicks off at the Mapei Stadium in Reggio Emilia at 17.45 UK time (...
Senate extends controversial surveillance program used by U.S. spy agencies
The Senate approved a short-term renewal until April 30. The measure cleared the Senate by voice vote, without a formal roll call, as Congress raced to meet a Monday deadline. It now heads to President Donald Trump, who had pushed for a clean 18-month extension, for his signature.
The Identity Crisis: who are you without your business?
Amber Freeman, host of Bloom, sat down with Author of “Unchained,” Bobby Mascia, to talk about how the biggest risk to a successful retirement isn’t actually a financial one.
Does Trump even have a political strategy?
Winning in politics means delivering on popular issues, and that is difficult for any president. Without a solid political strategy and discipline is nigh impossible.
Science Committee Democratic Staff Report Reveals Details on NASA’s Illegal Implementation of Trump’s FY2026 Budget Request Without Congressional Approval
The House Committee on Science, Space and Technology
What I learned when I gave up sugar for six weeks
Foods with added sugar are everywhere – even in some surprising places. So how easy is it to go without sugar and what difference can it make to your health?
Devils hire ex-Panthers executive Sunny Mehta as general manager
The New Jersey Devils have hired Sunny Mehta as their general manager, bringing back their former director of analytics to oversee their hockey operations department. Owner David Blitzer announced the hire Thursday night, less than 48 hours after the team’s regular season ended without a playoff appearance. Mehta was an assistant when the Florida Panthers won the Stanley Cup back to back each of the past two years.
Scientists Reveal Why Bread Can Cause Weight Gain Without Overeating
It's not just 'calories in, calories out'.
San Jose State deaths raise mental health concerns
San Jose State University has seen two deaths by suicide within a month this year. The tragedies have opened a window into a paradox facing Silicon Valley cities and institutions: addressing public locations that result in self-harm without sparking a "contagion."
Samsung is promoting a Galaxy S26 feature without confirming it for S25, S24
Samsung is promoting a new Galaxy AI feature that is currently exclusive to the Galaxy S26 series, but awaited by the Galaxy S25 series users. Audio Eraser has been one of the widely recognized features of the most recent One UI ecosystem. First introduced with Galaxy S25, it helps to reduce background noises that interrupt […]
House considers bill to protect Haitian immigrants, in pushback against Trump administration
WASHINGTON (AP) — In a rare bipartisan moment, the House has agreed to consider legislation that would extend temporary protections for Haitian immigrants, pushing back against the Trump administration’s efforts to end the program. The bill expected for a vote Thursday would require the Trump administration to extend for three years Temporary Protected Status for Haiti, which would allow hundreds of thousands of qualifying immigrants to remain in the U.S. without fear of deportation. House
UNC Hussman offers new sports play-by-play class | UNC Hussman School of Journalism and Media
This story, written by UNC Hussman alumna Caroline Daly ’24, was originally published on unc.edu. The UNC Hussman School of Journalism and Media has a new, hands-on class available for students interested in sports careers. Students in “MEJO 390: Sports Commentary and Play-By-Play” can call live radio broadcasts for Carolina sporting events, streamed live on the Go Heels website. This spring, 11 students are calling mostly softball games to gain experience and learn the preparation needed for a successful broadcast. The class is capped at a small number to provide consistent, individual feedback. Matt Krause, the radio voice of Carolina women’s basketball, teaches the class to help students sharpen their skills, using his experience with the Tar Heels and calling games for ACC Network and ACC Network Extra. “There is no substitute for live reps, and that is the only way you get better. The classroom component teaches you how to get better, but going about that requires sitting in that chair, making mistakes and being able to know your broadcast is going somewhere,” Krause said. “These students are doing real live games, and they will have tape where if they want to pursue this. They will have ready-made demos to send for jobs. Being able to utilize all the resources of UNC, GoHeels Productions and the Carolina Athletics brand and create these opportunities for students is really impactful.” In the class, students learn fundamentals like how to announce starting lineups for different sports and how to conduct research before games. Krause has led the class in mock preparation exercises, looking at game charts with information about the different teams and players that they can refer to at pivotal moments during the game. Krause and the students then critique each other, listening to clips from the past week to find ways to improve. It’s a rare class without a slew of quizzes or assignments. Their main tasks are calling games and making a portfolio or demo reel of their best calls at the end of the semester, all with the goal of being ready to step into similar roles after graduation. Laible live streams her coverage on the GoHeels website. Calling a live game while broadcasting her coverage allows her to get hands on experience. (Jon Gardiner/UNC-Chapel Hill) Junior Anna Laible ’27 wished for a class just like this. Her first year at Carolina, she interned with the Coastal Plain League, where she was introduced to play-by-play for baseball. “I enjoy the challenge and uncertainty of each game being different because each sport looks a little different,” said Laible. “Each game is different — not just with teams but what could happen with certain records being broken or random trends. That’s what I enjoy most.” She wanted more opportunities for reps during college to prepare for a career after Carolina, so she pitched an idea for the class to Livis Freeman ’99, distinguished associate professor of sports communication. Laible and Freeman reached out to GoHeels Productions for a partnership and then connected with Krause. “This is how at UNC Hussman we separate ourselves: Our students go into the field ready,” said Freeman. “The biggest compliment we get it is when our students start their careers, they don’t need any hand-holding.” Laible calls a Carolina softball game at Kessing Stadium – after pitching the idea to Hussman faculty. Her interest in sports commentary allowed her to apply her interest as she attends Carolina. (Jon Gardiner/UNC-Chapel Hill) Laible is now a student in the class, which has helped her strengthen her skills and deepen her passion for the field. The goal is to expand to other sports like soccer, lacrosse and field hockey. “The hands-on experience I’ve gotten here is invaluable. I’ve loved the classes and professors because they’ve taught me a lot, but it’s also the things outside of class, too, that have helped me grow,” said Laible. “Since being at UNC, I’ve grown a lot in the versatility, from doing writing to production and commentating. UNC Hussman and Carolina have given me the ability to be strong and well rounded.”
Scientists remove “zombie” cells and reverse liver damage in mice
A rogue set of “zombie” immune cells may be driving aging and fatty liver disease by flooding tissues with inflammation. Researchers found these cells accumulate with age and high cholesterol—and can make up most of the liver’s immune cells in older mice. When scientists removed them, liver damage was dramatically reversed, even without diet changes.
The gamble in Trump’s Iran blockade that could decide the war
President Donald Trump’s switch from kinetic to economic warfare with his blockade of Iran’s ships and ports is an attempt to end the conflict without a new US-Israeli onslaught.
Blackhawks extend general manager Kyle Davidson's contract
The Chicago Blackhawks extended general manager Kyle Davidson's contract Wednesday without providing the length of the deal. “We are committing to Kyle to continue the plan he has put in place,” chairman and owner Danny Wirtz said before the team's season-ending game against San Jose. The Blackhawks are locked into 31st place in the 32-team NHL and haven’t made the Stanley Cup playoffs since the expanded COVID playoffs of 2020.
Health Taxes and the IMF: Are Support and Reform Aligned?
Health taxes remain one of the clearest opportunities for countries to raise revenue while improving public health, but how these reforms are supported matters as much as whether they are adopted. The current pattern—where reform commitments are concentrated in lower-income countries, while technical support is more visible elsewhere—raises a practical concern: complex excise reforms may be pursued without commensurate design and implementation support. Given the technical demands of these reforms, this gap could affect both their durability and effectiveness.
NBA playoffs 2026: Play-in tournament scores, live updates: Magic face 76ers without Joel Embiid; Steph Curry, Warriors take on Clippers
City, business leaders agree: Spring break went smoothly on South Beach
This was the third straight spring break without a major incident.
The main issues Democratic candidates will focus on in 2028
Democrats are facing a new political arena without Trump as an opponent
Scientists and the Fishing Industry Join Forces for Better Data and Management (Part 2)
Industry-Based Biological Sampling Fills Data Gaps to Improve Stock AssessmentsOur cooperative research team works with industry partners across New England and the Mid-Atlantic to collect fish and invertebrate samples to better understand age, growth, reproduction, and bioenergetics. These samples fill data gaps during times of year and areas without surveys or other ways of collecting fish samples.
The political power of Latin America's first ladies
First ladies in Latin America are more than ceremonial figures. They influence public policy, advance political careers, and build power within the core of the executive branch – without a formal mandate, or accountability. Carolina Guerrero Valencia shows why ignoring them means misreading presidential power itself
A new way to detect life beyond Earth without knowing what life looks like
Researchers from the Earth-Life Science Institute (ELSI) and National Institute for Basic Biology have developed a new method to detect extraterrestrial life without relying on traditional biosignatures. By modelling how life might spread between planets, they demonstrate that life could be detected through statistical patterns across planetary populations rather than on individual planets. This "agnostic biosignature" approach could assist in guiding future searches for life beyond Earth.
How to refresh your phone without upgrading it
You don't necessarily have to spend money on a new phone.
Lakers prepare for Rockets playoff series with emphasis on rebounding
Without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves sidelined indefintely, coach JJ Redick says "taking care of the basketball and boxing out. That's the series."
DA wants Sam Altman arson suspect Daniel Moreno-Gama held without bail
Daniel Moreno-Gama allegedly threw a lit Molotov cocktail at OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's home and threatened to burn down OpenAI's headquarters.
Google Search tackles sites that try to stop you from leaving when you hit the back button
Websites will have to stop acting like clingy exes and let us go without a fight.
Mikel Arteta wants to see ‘no fear’ and ‘pure fire’ from Arsenal’s players and fans
Arsenal could be without several key players for their Champions League second-leg tie against Sporting on Wednesday.
Downtown Las Vegas music venue faces lawsuit over ‘excessive noise’
The landlord’s attorney Evan Thalgott said the lawsuit comes after “numerous good-faith efforts to resolve the issue without court intervention proved unsuccessful.”
How AI cameras are changing video capture in youth sports
XbotGo reports that AI cameras are transforming youth sports video capture, making it easier for families to record games without distraction.
Scientists discover why bread can cause weight gain without extra calories
Bread and other carbohydrate staples may be doing more than just filling plates—they could be quietly reshaping metabolism. In a surprising twist, researchers found that mice strongly preferred carbs like bread, rice, and wheat, abandoning their regular diet entirely. Even without eating more calories, they gained weight and body fat, not because they overate, but because their bodies burned less energy.
Physicists just witnessed pinpricks of darkness moving faster than the speed of light — without breaking the laws of relativity
For the first time, researchers measured singularities in combined light and sound waves moving faster than the speed of light. The findings have implications in fluid dynamics, optics and many other fields.
Mendy, the big return, Arbeloa names squad for Munich battle
Real Madrid travel to Munich without players such as Courtois or Rodrygo due to injury, and without Tchouaméni through suspension. The season is on the line for Real Madrid, who head to Munich lookin...
Gemini for Google Home Keeps Getting Huge Upgrades
We can't seem to go a week at this point without Google pushing out several upgrades and changes to its Google Home products. From Gemini for Home to bug and reliability fixes, we're really...
Swimming becomes the first major Olympic sport to lift restrictions on Russian athletes
The governing body for international swimming and aquatic sports will allow athletes from Russia to compete without restrictions and with their national flag and anthem.
Bill Foley downplays Lorient-Bournemouth multi-club fears
Multi-club ownership is very much in fashion, especially in Ligue 1. It isn’t a phenomenon without resistance, however. A section of RC Strasbourg Alsace’s fanbase are veciferous in their oppositi...
Surviving AI Price Wars Without Destroying Your Business
Five things app companies get wrong — and what to do instead
World Aquatics drops restrictions against Russian athletes
The governing body for international swimming and aquatic sports will allow athletes from Russia to compete without restrictions and with their national flag and anthem.
Op-Ed: Protecting Taxpayers Means Looking Beyond the Politics of Short-Term Rentals
Santa Barbara is on the verge of making a consequential decision about short-term rentals—but without first answering a basic question: what will it cost?
Green Powered Challenge: Solar Powered Pi Hosts Websites In RAM
If you started with computers early enough, you’ll remember the importance of the RAMdisk concept: without a hard drive and with floppies slow and swapping constantly, everything had to live …
What Now? Vance Leaves Iran Talks Without a Deal.
The lack of a breakthrough after 21 hours of negotiations leaves the Trump administration facing several unpalatable options.
Vance says US-Iran talks end without deal after 21 hours of negotiations
Vice President JD Vance says U.S.-Iran talks ended without a deal after Iran refused American terms, calling the outcome bad news for Iran more than the United States.
Protecting Taxpayers Means Looking Beyond the Politics of Short-Term Rentals
Santa Barbara is on the verge of making a consequential decision about short-term rentals — but without first answering a basic question: What will it cost?
Life on Mars? Tiny cells just survived shock waves and toxic soil
Mars may be hostile, but it might not be entirely unlivable. In lab experiments, yeast cells survived simulated Martian shock waves and toxic perchlorate salts—two major environmental threats on the Red Planet. Their secret weapon was forming protective molecular clusters that shield critical cellular functions under stress. Without these defenses, survival plummeted, pointing to a potential universal strategy life could use beyond Earth.
Scientists rethink DNA after discovering it can be built from scratch in a process they call 'doodling'
Scientists show DNA polymerases can build long, patterned DNA without a template called "doodling," opening new paths for synthetic biology.
I changed my embarrassing Gmail username without losing anything, and you can too
Google now lets Gmail users switch to a new address while keeping the old one as an alias — here's how!
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Memorial Hermann and BCBSTX reach a new deal, restoring in-network coverage, hospital says
The Houston-based health system and the insurance giant had previously let an April 1 deadline pass without a new agreement, meaning many patients across the region were forced to pay higher medical costs or find new doctors.
US negotiators leaving without a peace deal with Iran
A U.S. official said several U.S. Navy ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz; three supertankers passed through, shipping data showed.
How AI used Adobe Lightroom like a human, only faster
OpenAI's Codex AI coding service worked out how to use Adobe Lightroom like a human, denoising 50 photos without an API or plugin.
Apple @ Work: How to add an existing Mac to Apple Business Manager without wiping it
A new open source script called add2abm allows IT administrators to retroactively add configured Macs to Apple Business Manager without erasing the hard drive.
People Throw Away This Common Electronic Item Without Knowing It Holds 450MG of Pure 22-Carat Gold
You have almost certainly thrown this exact item in the trash without a second thought. Inside its forgotten shell sits a hidden payload of genuine 22-carat gold worth far more than the scrap value.
A simple guide to staying fit without needing a gym membership
Fitness pros say it’s still possible to build strength, improve endurance and support overall fitness goals from home, both safely and effectively.
Microsoft finally lets Windows 11 testers unlock experimental features without ViVeTool
The changes are part of the fix Windows 11 effort
Trump’s Pakistan gamble: Can talks produce peace?
Iran will approach these meetings pretending it’s the power at the table. That’s what they do. But the boastfulness conceals a country that has just been hammered militarily, in shambles economically, and without the support of its own people.
Dodgers notes: Alex Vesia, Andy Pages, stadium name change
Last season the Dodgers were able to complete their quest of two straight titles without the help of their best left-handed relief option in the World Series. Alex Vesia was away from the Dodgers during last year’s Fall Classic as he and his wife were grieving the sudden loss of their newborn daughter, Sterling, and […]
Google rolls out Gmail end-to-end encryption on mobile devices
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Viewpoint: FP10 should remain open, excellent and secure
Europe is right to worry about research security. Foreign interference is real. So is the misuse of sensitive knowledge. Universities working in sensitive areas such as AI, quantum, semiconductors and advanced materials cannot afford to ignore the geopolitical environment around them.But Europe is in danger of drawing the wrong conclusion, one that would increase, not reduce, its strategic vulnerabilities.If the EU applies an “EU preference” logic to the next Framework Programme for research and innovation (FP10), it will weaken one of its greatest strategic assets: a research system built on openness, excellence and international collaboration. In the name of security, Europe could end up advancing science more slowly, innovating less effectively and making itself less attractive to global talent and partners in advanced science and technology.That would be a serious mistake.The EU preference included in Article 10 of the proposed European Competitiveness Fund may make sense in some industrial or deployment contexts, but is far harder to justify when applied to collaborative research in advanced science and technology, where excellence and global connectivity are crucial. Research is not procurement. It does not thrive when isolated. It advances through access to the best ideas, the best people, the best facilities and the best data, wherever they are found. This is why FP10 should not simply absorb industrial policy logic by default. Doing so would risk importing instruments that are ill-suited to research and that ultimately increase vulnerability rather than resilience.For universities of science and technology, the issue is especially acute. These institutions sit at the frontier of knowledge and technology creation in the very fields Europe sees as critical for its future competitiveness and resilience. They know better than most that security risks are real. But they also know that openness and security are not opposites. In practice, they have to be made to work together. Research security is not about closing doors. It is about building resilience through collective responsibility, trust, proportionate safeguards and better governance. That is a fundamentally different approach from default restriction.The risks of non-collaborationThe real danger in the current debate is that Europe talks too much about the risks of collaboration and not enough about the risks of non-collaboration. Those risks are strategic too. Cut researchers off from international networks and Europe loses access to knowledge, data, infrastructures and talent. Slow down global collaboration in critical technologies and Europe slows down its own progress on cutting-edge science. Make participation rules unpredictable and Europe weakens its attractiveness to researchers and investors alike.In other words, over-restricting collaboration will create strategic vulnerabilities, particularly in advanced science and technologies.This point is often underestimated in policy discussions that frame openness mainly as a value to be defended. Europe’s scientific strength, technological development and long-term competitiveness depend on remaining connected to the best research ecosystems in the world. For a continent that wants to accelerate deep tech, strengthen industrial capacity and reduce strategic dependencies, weakening the excellence base would be self-defeating. That does not mean ignoring risk. Quite the opposite. Universities are already strengthening due diligence, internal governance, awareness-raising, screening procedures and compliance support. Across Europe, institutions are working to manage risks linked to foreign interference, sanctions, export controls and the misuse of research. The right response is not complacency. It is better risk management. But that means targeted, evidence-based and proportionate measures, not blunt top-down restrictions with wide spillover effects. In the daily reality of universities, openness and restriction often coexist. The real challenge is how to apply safeguards without sliding into securitisation that damages academic freedom, open science and international cooperation. Restrict partners, not nationsMore restrictive treatment of collaborators from European Economic Area members Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway, or from Switzerland and the UK, is strategically very difficult to justify. These are deeply embedded partners in Europe’s research and innovation ecosystem. Beyond that, Europe should still resist default exclusion and instead rely on case-by-case assessment. The relevant question is not nationality in the abstract. It is the actual risk profile of a collaboration: the institution, the affiliations, the field, the knowledge involved, the intended use and the safeguards available. Screening should focus on institutions and affiliations rather than nationality alone. Related articlesParliament ‘misreads’ link between Horizon Europe and ECF, Commission official saysFrustration grows at governance gap in next Horizon EuropeIf EU preference logic is imported into research without careful calibration, the likely result is a chilling effect. Researchers may step back from legitimate and beneficial collaboration, even where risks are manageable. International partners may see Europe as less predictable. And Europe may end up undermining the very excellence base it needs to compete, scale up and lead in strategic technologies, thereby increasing its dependence on others.FP10 should do the opposite. It should remain open by default, with restrictions used only exceptionally, and then on the basis of clear evidence. It should integrate research security into open science and research integrity frameworks, not set them against each other. And it should recognise that academic freedom, scientific excellence and responsible international collaboration are not obstacles to Europe’s security, they are part of it. Europe needs stronger tools to protect itself. But it also needs the discipline to avoid measures that would weaken it and increase its strategic vulnerabilities in the process. In FP10, that means staying open, excellent and secure.Louise Drogoul is senior advisor for innovation and sustainability at the Cesaer university association.