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2026 AdventHealth 400 predictions, odds, start time: NASCAR at Kansas picks, best bets by advanced model
Best bets for NASCAR at Kansas as the AdventHealth 400 unfolds on Sunday with Tyler Reddick atop the Cup Series standings
Explore maps of downtown Royals stadium: See size, entertainment district & more
These maps show where key elements could fall, including home plate, the outfield and a potential entertainment district modeled after developments like Wrigleyville in Chicago.
How Carey Wright brought the science of reading to Mississippi schools
State Superintendent of Schools, Maryland, Dr. Carey Wright, on how she transformed early reading in Mississippi and created a national model
University of Pittsburgh team's FRED model tracks measles
Pitt's Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics program was instrumental in convincing lawmakers to pass rare legislation that took away the ability of residents to skip vaccines because of religious or personal beliefs.
Ubisoft’s New Action RPG Is Devil May Cry Meets Cyberpunk
Despite a string of recent controversies, a huge overhaul of its business model, and a restructuring of its most important IP, Ubisoft is seemingly continuing to produce good games. Sure, Assassin’s Creed Shadows was a fairly enjoyable revamp of a very familiar formula, and Star Wars Outlaws, as lambasted as it was at launch, impressed […]
Walmart to remodel 12 NJ stores, including 2 in North Jersey, in 2026
Walmart will be giving 12 of its New Jersey stores, including two in North Jersey, a facelift in 2026.
NBA player prop picks, odds, free best bets: Model includes LeBron James for NBA Playoffs on April 18
The SportsLine model and team of experts reveal top NBA props picks and NBA predictions for the NBA Playoffs on Saturday
White House chief of staff to meet with Anthropic CEO over its new Mythos AI model
The meeting comes after tensions have run hot between the Trump administration and the safety-conscious Anthropic, which has sought to put guardrails on the development of AI to minimize any potential risks and maximize its economic and national security benefits for the U.S.
OpenAI Has a New AI Model Built for Biology and Science
GPT-Rosalind is intended to help scientists streamline their research and drug discovery.
Walmart to remodel nine NH stores; add pharmacy in Keene
Walmart plans to remodel nine stores in New Hampshire this year and open a new pharmacy in Keene, the company announced Thursday.
Apple to Unveil iOS 27 in June With These New Features Beyond Siri
Apple is expected to unveil iOS 27 during its WWDC 2026 keynote on June 8, and the update should be released in September. Below, we outline some of the new features that are rumored to be coming with iOS 27, beyond the long-awaited more personalized version of Siri. iOS 27 will reportedly support 5G satellite internet connectivity, although this functionality might be limited to the upcoming iPhone 18 Pro models with Apple's next-generation C2 modem.
College basketball's next gold rush? 10 stars who could cash in on proposed five-for-five eligibility
If the NCAA adopts a five-for-five model before the 2026-27 fall semester, these veteran stars could have more leverage than ever. Here are the biggest potential winners
Apple to Upgrade These Two Devices With OLED Displays Later This Year
Apple plans to release iPad mini and MacBook Pro models with OLED displays this year, according to industry sources who spoke to South Korea's ETNews. The current iPad mini and MacBook Pro models have LCD displays with either LED or mini-LED backlighting. The move to OLED technology would result in improved image quality, thanks to richer colors and higher contrast ratio with true blacks. Samsung will supply the OLED displays for both devices, the report said.
Amazon will ditch Android on ‘all’ future Fire TV Sticks as latest model runs Vega OS
Amazon this week launched its newest Fire TV Stick and, along with it, its second device powered by Vega OS....
Galaxy S27 may deliver insanely fast storage speed with UFS 5.0
Samsung is rumored to equip at least some models of the Galaxy S27 series next year with the faster UFS 5.0 standard storage chips.
The 3 forces quietly dismantling the business model that made enterprise software fabulously profitable
Roundtables with senior business leaders in San Francisco and New York revealed a consensus: AI isn't just threatening SaaS, but the entire industry.
NSWCPD Applies AI and Machine Learning to Predictive Machinery Health
In a soundproof chamber at the Naval Surface Warfare Center, Philadelphia Division (NSWCPD), a steel-gray air compressor hums as engineers test an experimental machine learning model designed to detect early signs of failure through vibration analysis. The effort, part of NSWCPD’s growing portfolio of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) projects, shows early promise for potential future Navy use.
Washington’s Scramble to Get Mythos, Anthropic’s Powerful New Model
Federal agencies have requested access to Claude Mythos Preview, which Anthropic says can rapidly identify — and potentially create — new cyberthreats.
iPhone 18 Pro's Four Rumored Colors Revealed, Including 'Dark Cherry'
A source said to be familiar with Apple's supply chain today revealed the color options Apple is planning for the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and the upcoming foldable iPhone. Image via Macworld. The information comes from Macworld, which says the signature new color for this year's Pro models will be Dark Cherry, a deep wine-like red. While other sources had previously reported on a "Dark Red" option, the hue is said to be considerably closer to wine than a brighter red.
Zohran Mamdani reflects on his first 100 days as NYC mayor, and what else is left to do
Through his first 100 days as mayor of New York City, Zohran Mamdani has focused on “pothole politics” — a blend of high-level legislative wins and intense focus on everyday essential services that keep the city running. The 34-year-old mayor has delivered on progressive campaign promises, from more funding for child care to new taxes on the ultrawealthy. He views his government as a model for how Democrats can deliver on policies that benefit the working class.In this episode of NPR’s Newsmakers, Mamdani sits down with host Leila Fadel at City Hall to discuss his first 100 days in office, his approach to working with President Trump and the message he believes Democrats should deliver during this year’s midterm elections.NPR's Newsmakers is where you'll find NPR's biggest interviews. We post new episodes as soon as they're available -- any day of the week. Follow or watch the show wherever you get podcasts.Newsmakers relies on supporters who value independent journalism and a free press. Join NPR+ today to support our work and get perks from the podcasts you trust. Go to plus.npr.org.
OpenAI launches AI model GPT-Rosalind for life sciences research
OpenAI on Thursday introduced an artificial intelligence model touting increased biology knowledge and scientific research capabilities, as the startup deepens its push into the life sciences field.
OpenAI launches new AI model for life sciences research
Researchers are drowning in data. AI could help.
Price war: Apple's 1TB M5 MacBook Pro dips to $1,580
Apple retailers are embroiled in a MacBook Pro price war this Thursday, resulting in the 1TB M5 14-inch model falling to $1,580.
OpenAI focuses on business users amid competition with rival Anthropic
OpenAI executives say they will introduce a new artificial intelligence model for “high-value professional work” as the company faces heightened competition with rival Anthropic in attracting corporate customers to adopt AI assistants in their workplaces.
Should Monopoly Verdict and Breakup Risk Require Action From Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) Investors?
In recent days, a jury found that Live Nation Entertainment and its Ticketmaster unit illegally monopolized concert ticketing, opening the door for more than 30 US states to seek remedies that could include curbing the company’s power or even forcing a breakup. This verdict introduces significant legal uncertainty around Live Nation’s vertically integrated concerts and ticketing model, potentially reshaping how major live events are promoted, ticketed, and operated across the...
Scientists Just Confirmed One of the Greatest Mysteries of Our Universe. Now What?
Observations don’t match the predictions of the standard model—and it’s not just a fluke.
Scientists Just Confirmed One of the Greatest Mysteries of Our Universe. Now What?
Observations don’t match the predictions of the standard model—and it’s not just a fluke.
AI firms rethink pricing, shift from users to work done
AI firms are altering software pricing models, moving from per user fees to work-based charges.
ChatGPT’s new ‘Thinking’ mode just hit a 94% reasoning score — 7 prompts it can solve that standard AI can’t
OpenAI's latest flagship model, GPT-5.4, introduces an "Extended Thinking" toggle — here is how to use its 94% reasoning power to solve "impossible" tasks
ChatGPT maker OpenAI shifts its focus to business users amid Anthropic pressure
OpenAI executives say they will introduce a new artificial intelligence model for “high-value professional work” as the company faces heightened competition with rival Anthropic in attracting corporate customers to adopt AI assistants in their workplaces.
Salt Lake County Mayor shares more details on Salt Palace remodel
More details are emerging about the reconstruction plans coming to the Salt Palace Convention Center.
How Dangerous Is Anthropic’s New AI Model? Its Chief Science Officer Explains.
Just how fast is the future coming at us, and how worried should we be? Last week, Anthropic announced Claude Mythos, the latest in what has become the leading family of AI models. In a very short time, AI models from Anthropic and other companies have become shockingly powerful at coding. But Mythos stands out because it is not just able to write code that can hack into critical systems, like those that run financial companies, but also to analyze systems and find and string together vulnerabilities in them, allowing Mythos to evade even sophisticated defenses. Anthropic chose to release Mythos to only about 40 leading corporations, so they could analyze the model’s capabilities and prepare countermeasures, in an effort it calls Project Glasswing. The release of Mythos—and the prospect of similarly powerful AIs to follow—has caused tremors at the top levels of Washington and corporate America. Jared Kaplan, co-founder and chief science officer at Anthropic, is at the center of this breakthrough. We sat down with Kaplan so he could walk us through just how powerful Mythos is, what the implications are for issues like our personal privacy, and what comes next. This conversation has been edited for length and clarity. Sean Fischer: For the layman, how is Claude Mythos different—more powerful, more dangerous—from previous models released by Anthropic? Jared Kaplan: I think most people have experienced the fact that our computers get faster and faster over time and over many decades. There’s this very smooth trend where every 18 months, maybe, computer processing power doubles. I think AI is on a trend in which it’s improving maybe 10 times faster than that. A lot of the earliest work that I did in AI was around identifying this scaling trend in AI. Claude Mythos is the latest model from Anthropic, but it’s not different because it’s qualitatively different. It’s really just kind of the culmination of the trend of AI models getting smarter and smarter at all kinds of general capabilities, from reasoning to software engineering to scientific research to knowledge work. For us, it was the first model to demonstrate very elite-level cybersecurity capabilities. It wasn’t because we trained Claude Mythos to focus on cybersecurity, but it was because, as a byproduct of its general intelligence and its general ability with software, it’s particularly good at identifying vulnerabilities in software and how to exploit them.
No vote after NCAA urges further study of age eligibility changes to college sports
- The NCAA confirmed Wednesday it is exploring a move to an age-based eligibility model that would give athletes a window of five years to compete in...
How low should blood pressure go? Science has the answer
New research suggests that aiming for a lower blood pressure target may deliver bigger heart health benefits than previously thought. Using large datasets and simulation models, scientists found that keeping systolic blood pressure below 120 mm Hg could reduce the risk of heart attack, stroke, and heart failure more than higher targets.
Warriors vs. Clippers odds, prediction, time: 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament picks, April 15 bets by proven model
SportsLine's proven model has revealed its Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Clippers play-in best bets
Galaxy S27 To Become Much Snappier Next Year, And It Won’t Be Because Of The Industry’s First 2nm Chipsets
Samsung is rumored to mulling an upgrade for some Galaxy S27 models that will make them much snappier and response than previous launches
The People’s Airline: How Southwest turned love into a business model
Southwest Airlines proved that flying didn't have to be a luxury. By treating employees and customers like family, the company transformed air travel.
iPhone Ultra is coming: Six new features in Apple’s high-end model
Apple’s first foldable iPhone is coming this fall, and rumors say it will be called iPhone Ultra. Here are six new features to expect.
Report: iPad Air to Gain OLED Display Next Year
Apple will bring OLED displays to its iPad Air models next year, according to a new report from Korea's ET News. Citing industry sources, the outlet says Samsung Display will begin mass production of OLED panels around the end of 2026 or January next year, with a view to supplying panels for Apple's next iPad Air, expected to be released in early 2027. Apple last updated the iPad Air in March 2026 with an M4 chip.
New model helps investors and regulators understand complex businesses and see their positive sides
Warren Buffett advised that you should never invest in a business you can't understand. But that hasn't stopped many investors. New research from the McCombs School of Business at The University of Texas ...
How the European Space Agency became the quiet power in planetary science and what its institutional model reveals about building consensus across 22 nations
The European Space Agency's 22-nation consensus model appears slow and bureaucratic, but it has produced one of the most quietly productive planetary science programs on Earth. Understanding its institutional design reveals how distributed commitment, geographic return, and mandatory science funding create missions that survive political disruptions no single nation's program could weather.
A new way to detect life beyond Earth without knowing what life looks like
Researchers from the Earth-Life Science Institute (ELSI) and National Institute for Basic Biology have developed a new method to detect extraterrestrial life without relying on traditional biosignatures. By modelling how life might spread between planets, they demonstrate that life could be detected through statistical patterns across planetary populations rather than on individual planets. This "agnostic biosignature" approach could assist in guiding future searches for life beyond Earth.
95% of people carry this virus and scientists may have just found how to stop it
Scientists have taken a major step toward stopping Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), an extremely common infection linked to cancer and chronic disease. By using mice engineered with human antibody genes, researchers created powerful human-like antibodies that block the virus from attaching to and entering immune cells. One of these antibodies completely prevented infection in lab models with human immune systems, marking a breakthrough after years of difficulty tackling EBV’s ability to invade nearly all B cells.
2026 RBC Heritage odds, picks, field, date: Surprising PGA predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors
Mike McClure's model has simulated the RBC Heritage 2026 10,000 times and revealed PGA picks for Hilton Head
Microsoft Raises Prices for All Surface PCs, Making Them More Expensive Than Equivalent Macs
Microsoft increased prices for all of its Surface PCs this week, with most models priced hundreds of dollars higher than they were when launching. Windows Central highlighted the increases, which now see Microsoft's mid-range models priced above $1,000 and flagship models priced starting at $1,500. A Microsoft spokesperson said the price increase was due to "recent increases in memory and component costs".
Sony killing features for antenna, set-top box users of Bravia smart TVs in May
Some 2023 and 2024 models are also affected.
Hungary’s Populist Paradox
We look at what Viktor Orban’s defeat tells us about a model of government in which politics are more important than the economy.
Two-year-old Surface PCs get $300 price hikes as sub-$1,000 models go away
Paying more for the same stuff" is the story of consumer technology in 2026.
Scientists Uncover Hidden Force Powering Yellowstone’s Supervolcano
A new geodynamic model is reshaping how scientists understand supervolcanoes, revealing that their magma systems may be far more diffuse and dynamic than previously believed.
Samsung's new Micro RGB TVs start at $1,600 for a 55-inch model
Samsung just launched its lineup of Micro RGB TVs for 2025. These range in size from 55 inches all the way to 85 inches, with a 100-inch version on the way.
2026 RBC Heritage odds, picks, field, date: Surprising PGA predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors
Mike McClure's model has simulated the RBC Heritage 2026 10,000 times and revealed golf picks for Hilton Head
Sony is Removing Many Popular Features From Its Free OTA TV Options Impacting Free ABC, CBS, FOX, & NBC
Sony has notified owners of its recent BRAVIA television models that significant changes to the built-in TV Guide for its OTA TV antenna users and related menu features will take effect starting in late May 2026. The update affects a range of premium sets released between 2023 and 2025, marking another instance of feature adjustments […]
Scientists just recreated a rare cosmic reaction never seen before
A breakthrough experiment has shed new light on one of astrophysics’ biggest mysteries: the origin of rare proton-rich elements. For the first time, scientists directly measured a key reaction that creates selenium-74 using a rare isotope beam. The results sharpen models of how these elements form in supernova explosions, cutting uncertainty in half. But the findings also reveal gaps in current theories, hinting that the story isn’t complete yet.
Advancing Metabolic Health Through Coordinated Care
The Metabolic Health Institute is a first-of-its-kind model unifying endocrinology, obesity medicine and bariatric surgery under non-surgical leadership.
10 Reasons to Wait for the iPhone 18 Pro
Apple's iPhone development roadmap runs several years into the future and the company is continually working with suppliers on several successive iPhone models at the same time, which is why we often get rumored features months ahead of launch. The iPhone 18 series is no different, and we already have a good idea of what to expect for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max.
Tudor Monarch – Watches and Wonders 2026
For its 100-year anniversary, Tudor debuts an entirely new model – the Tudor Monarch – with an integrated design and more decorated calibre.
Apple iPhone Fold: Release Date Leaked And Striking Design Revealed In Photos
What will the first folding iPhone look like? How big will it be compared to the current models? The first images claiming to be dummy units have just leaked.
Cubs vs. Phillies prediction, odds, line, time: 2026 MLB picks for Monday, April 13 from advanced model
SportsLine's model reveals its Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies best bets and MLB picks today
Blackmagic Design announces Blackmagic URSA Cine 12K LF 100G
Blackmagic Design today announced Blackmagic URSA Cine 12K LF 100G, a new model in the URSA Cine family with 100G Ethernet for high-frame-rate SMPTE-2110 live production output up to 440 fps. Building on the digital film features of the URSA Cine 12K LF, including the large format RGBW 36x24mm sensor, the new model adds dramatically faster … Continued
Stanford HAI 2026 AI Index: AI posts gains in science and medicine while often struggling to read a clock
Stanford HAI’s 2026 AI Index paints a split-screen picture for R&D. In the report’s science chapter, “frontier models outperform human chemists on average on ChemBench,” yet “score below 20% on replication in astrophysics and 33% on Earth observation questions.” In medicine, the report reaches a similarly mixed conclusion, saying AI is transforming clinical care, but…
Tesla is selling 250 invite-only Model S 'Signatures' for $160,000
Elon Musk's automaker is inviting a select group of fans to purchase limited-edition versions of its soon-to-be-discontinued Model X and S luxury EVs.
‘We Are Growing’: Fresh Designs Lift Raymond Weil
Elie Bernheim, the chief executive of Raymond Weil, has confidence in his “accessible luxury” business model.
Fantastic MacBook Air with 24GB RAM at lowest ever price on Amazon right now in unmissable deal
This 15.3-inch model of the legendary lightweight laptop also comes with 512GB storage and a 2880x1864 Liquid Retina Display.
Apple iPhone Fold: Release Date Leaked And Striking Design Revealed In Photos
What will the first folding iPhone look like? How big will it be compared to the current models? The first images claiming to be dummy units have just leaked.
Braves vs. Guardians prediction, odds, time: 2026 MLB picks for Sunday Night Baseball from advanced model
SportsLine's model reveals Atlanta Braves vs. Cleveland Guardians picks, MLB best bets for Sunday Night Baseball
Apple pulls high-end Mac mini and Mac Studio models from sale
You can no longer order high-end Mac mini and Mac Studio models from Apple, with the configurations listed as “currently unavailable.”
Early data promising on RI's evolving behavioral health model
Rhode Island's certified community behavioral health clinics are showing promising results, increasing access and improving outcomes, the author says.
How The Narrative Is Shifting For Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) After Guidance Reset And Target Cuts
Flutter Entertainment’s fair value estimate has been reduced from US$207.44 to US$197.35, lowering the modeled upside by about 4.9%. That change aligns with more cautious research following weaker Q4 results and lower 2026 guidance. At the same time, analysts continue to discuss long term execution and valuation questions from both bullish and bearish perspectives. Read on to see how these revised targets fit into the evolving story and what to watch as new data emerges. Stay updated as the...
2026 Masters odds: Surprising PGA picks, predictions into Round 4 by golf model that nailed 16 majors
Mike McClure's model has simulated the final round of the Masters 10,000 times and revealed golf picks for Augusta National
Bridging Oral Health and Integrated Care: A Scientometric Study of Integrated Care for Older People (ICOPE) and Removable Prosthodontics in Older Adults
Population aging has shifted healthcare priorities from disease-centered models towards functional ability and quality of life. The WHO Integrated Care for Older People (ICOPE) framework operati...
The Universe is expanding too fast and scientists still can’t explain it
A major international effort has produced an ultra-precise measurement of the Universe’s expansion rate, confirming it’s faster than early-Universe models predict. By linking multiple distance-measuring techniques, scientists ruled out simple errors as the cause of the discrepancy. The persistent “Hubble tension” now looks more real than ever. It could mean our current model of the cosmos is incomplete.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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