SCROLL NEWS / DISCOVERY
Search headlines
Find the stories shaping the conversation.
Results for " jr " 3,332 found 🔀 AI-powered Shuffle
Three Microsoft Defender Zero-Days Actively Exploited; Two Still Unpatched
Three Defender zero-days exploited since April 10, 2026, enabling privilege escalation and DoS, forcing isolation of affected systems.
Trump administration live updates: RFK Jr. to face questions again today after barrage of criticism at House hearings
Get live updates and the latest news on the Trump administration as RFK Jr. faces more questions from lawmakers and progressive activist Analilia Mejia wins the special election to fill New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s former House seat.
Inside the CDC’s leadership vacuum: work at a ‘standstill’ and low morale as 80% of top posts remain vacant
Current and ex-officials at the CDC warn Americans’ health security in danger under RFK Jr’s direction
Sports Illustrated Resorts brand expands to Louisiana college town
Developers will convert a Hilton hotel in Baton Rouge under the lifestyle brand amid Sports Illustrated Resorts’ expansion into premier sports-driven college and university markets.
India's Wipro falls as weak forecast sparks growth concerns
Shares of Wipro dipped 2.9% on Friday after India's fourth-largest IT firm's revenue outlook for the ongoing quarter reinforced concerns around growth visibility and margin pressure.
8K views · 107 reactions | U.S. lawmakers on Thursday confronted...
U.S. lawmakers on Thursday confronted Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on vaccines, the Trump administration’s handling of health care fraud and comments he made about psychiatric medications...
Kennedy announces policy changes and faces criticism at House hearings
The health secretary appeared before two House committees to discuss proposed funding cuts. Several lawmakers pressed Kennedy about his response to measles outbreaks.
RFK Jr. defends proposed 12% health budget cut, measles response in House testimony
2026 NFL Draft final combined big board: Buckeyes defender is No. 1, with Fernando Mendoza right behind him and Rueben Bain Jr. top-5
HHS Wants to Be Done With Drama, for Now
As Trump nominates a new, uncontroversial CDC director, a more restrained version of RFK Jr. is appearing.
Seattle Reign FC and Sports Radio 950 KJR AM Announce 2026 Radio Broadcast Schedule
Continuing its partnership with iHeartMedia Seattle, a record 11 Seattle Reign FC matches will air on 950 KJR AM during the 2026 NWSL season, featuring a dynamic and experienced broadcast team while expanding access for fans across the Pacific Northwest; The club’s April 26 home match marks the firs
A vaccine standoff and other key moments from RFK Jr.'s first congressional hearing in months
Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. defended a more than 12% proposed cut to his department's budget and dodged arrows from angry Democrats as he kicked off an expected sprint of seven hearings in Congress over the next seven days.
RFK Jr. takes lashing in first of several contentious health hearings
The health and human services secretary received a rare rebuke from a Republican lawmaker as he defended his — and Trump’s — handling of the agency.
RFK Jr accused of ‘dangerous conspiracy theories’ at heated budget hearing
Trump ally grilled by lawmakers over ‘terrible decisions’ on vaccines, public health and funding cuts to key programs
Trump nominates Erica Schwartz as CDC director
The CDC has been going through turmoil and several leadership shakeups under HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Kennedy Says US Health Agency Has 72,000 Staff, up From 62,000 After DOGE Cuts
WASHINGTON, April 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said on Thursday his department now has 72,000 employees and is looking to hire 12,000 more to make up for cuts led by the Department of Government Efficiency. The department had ...
Congress grills RFK, Jr., about vaccines and cuts to health budget
The HHS secretary defended proposed budget cuts to science, his vaccine moves and health care costs Thursday on Capitol Hill
Kennedy focuses on affordability, combating fraud in Capitol Hill hearing
RFK Jr. focused on President Trump's health care agenda and largely avoided vaccines.
How are NFL teams handling complications of Rueben Bain Jr. car crash? 5 questions answered
RFK Jr.'s peptide policy could boost Hims & Hers as its GLP-1 business evolves
Hims may have an chance to grow peptides business as a potential revenue driver, with FDA review in 2026 shaping the opportunity.
RFK Jr. restores staffing at 9/11 health program ahead of Capitol Hill testimony
The move comes after nearly a year of bipartisan criticism about program staffing shortages delaying care for program participants.
RFK Jr. to Reform Health Panel That Determines Which Screenings Insurers Cover
The health secretary said he would reform the panel, which determines whether insurance will cover preventive services like mammograms and colonoscopies.
RFK Jr. Defends Health Budget Cuts Before House Committee
Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. told lawmakers that the department’s proposed budget focuses on prevention because it has better outcomes than treatment.
RFK Jr. defends his health agenda and Trump's proposed budget cuts in hearing
In his first appearance this year, the health secretary is taking questions on his record on health, including his controversial moves on vaccines.
RFK Jr. will remake panel that determines which preventative services insurers must cover - Live Updates
The health secretary told the Ways and Means Committee he’s bringing on new members of the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force.
Where to watch Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: Live stream, TV channel, odds for Thursday, April 16
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays close out their three-game series with the Brewers.
Kennedy to testify before Congress for first time this year
His appearances will be the first time he has faced lawmakers since he pushed out the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention over the summer.
The mental health parity gap is gaping
RFK Jr.'s testimony to Congress, broader access to peptides, and more health news from Morning Rounds
FOX Sports Analyst suggests Chiefs draft day trade with Lions
A FOX Sports Analyst suggests a Kansas City Chiefs draft day trade with the Detroit Lions for tight end Sam LaPorta | @EdEastonJr
Four things to watch as RFK Jr. defends his health agenda on the Hill
Vaccines and turmoil at the agencies under his leadership are expected to be hot topics.
Pick of the stats: Derby County v Oxford United
BBC Sport takes a look at the stats as Derby County face Oxford United.
White House sidesteps vaccine skeptics in potential CDC leadership reset
A new team could mark a shift away from Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s unpopular vaccine agenda ahead of the midterms.
‘He’s got a lot of stamina:’ What to watch as the RFK Jr. hearing blitz kicks off
Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will make the case for the Trump budget. Democrats will test his political acumen.
WATCH LIVE: Health Secretary RFK Jr. testifies about HHS priorities at House hearing
WATCH LIVE: Health Secretary RFK Jr. testifies about HHS priorities at House hearing
FDA to weigh easing limits on unproven peptides favored by RFK Jr. and MAHA supporters
The Food and Drug Administration will hold a meeting this summer to consider easing restrictions on more than a half dozen peptide injections, a group of unapproved therapies that have become popular among wellness influencers, fitness gurus and celebrities.
RFK Jr. promotes peptides. Now the FDA weighs easing limits on the unproven chemicals
A panel of outside advisers will review seven peptides at a meeting in July to determine if the unapproved drugs can be safely produced by pharmacies.
NCCU’s Rodrigo Alves Named Arthur Ashe Jr. Sports Scholar Finalist
FAIRFAX, Va. – Rodrigo Alves of the North Carolina Central men's tennis team has been named a finalist for the 2026 Arthur Ashe Jr. Male Sports Scholar of the Year, as announced by the EDU Ledger. A special edition highlighting the honorees will be published this summer.
FDA to weigh easing limits on unproven peptides favored by RFK Jr. and other MAHA figures
Peptides are unproven chemicals often pitched as way to build muscle, lose weight, look younger.
Shirley Named Arthur Ashe Jr. Sports Scholars Finalist - NC State University Athletics
Wolfpack defensive tackle Isaiah Shirley has been named one of the 10 male finalists for the 2026 Arthur Ashe Jr. Sports Scholar Award. The redshirt junior w...
http://democrats-energycommerce.house.gov/media/press-releases/pallone-opening-remarks-subcommittee-legislative-hearing-public-health-bills
Energy and Commerce Committee Ranking Member Frank Pallone, Jr. (D-NJ) delivered the following opening remarks at a Health Subcommittee legislative hearing on "Healthier America: Legislative Proposals to Improve Public Health:"
FDA to Weigh Easing Limits on Unproven Peptides Favored by RFK Jr. and Other MAHA Figures
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Food and Drug Administration will hold a meeting this summer to consider easing restrictions on more than a half dozen peptide injections, a group of unapproved therapies that have become popular among wellness influencers, fitness gurus and celebrities. The meeting ...
RFK Jr.'s focus on nutrition misses one main ingredient
Food insecurity, food deserts and structural inequities do not fall evenly across our society. They particularly impact communities of color.
Indiana Fever fans react to 2026 WNBA Draft haul
Following the completion of the 2026 WNBA Draft, here are some of the most notable social media reactions to the Indiana Fever's three selections.
Patrick Kane Leaves Door Wide Open For Playing Next Season
RFK Jr. has tied fluoride with 'stupider' kids. What a new study says
A new study found people who drink fluoridated water long-term are just as smart as those who don't, contrary to RFK Jr.'s comments.
No Other Pub nominated for Best Local Sports Bar in America in USA TODAY Sports Readers' Choice Awards
No Other Pub in the Kansas City Power & Light District is one of 20 finalists nationwide for Best Local Sports Bar in the USA TODAY Sports Readers' Choice Awards 2026 as nominated by an expert panel. Voting is open until 11 a.m. CT on Monday, May 11 and sports
Redesigned Trump Phone Finally Emerges on Overhauled Trump Mobile Website
Trump Mobile now features a third design of the T1 phone, alongside images and videos of Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. There's still no release date.
The biggest takeaways from the new RFK Jr. tell-all, from addiction to affairs
An unauthorized biography on Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is detailing the ups, downs and inner thoughts of the famed family member-turned-health secretary.
Philippine president does jumping jacks to disprove health rumors
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., 68, said the impromptu workout was meant to ease worries about his health as the Southeast Asian nation struggles with fallout from the Iran war.
House DFL hopeful that small-business relief from Operation Metro Surge could get GOP votes
Minnesota’s House Ways and Means Committee heard testimony from several business owners, school district members, and city leaders on Monday, as testifiers explained the impact of Operation Metro Surge on their respective spaces.
BUILDERS OF MINNESOTA | Inside FairPlay Entertainment: How Matt Allen and Ryan Hayes Are Rebuilding Access, Dignity, and Creative Power in Minnesota
FairPlay Entertainment builds an affordable St. Paul studio expanding access, supporting diverse artists, and strengthening Minnesota’s music scene.
2026 NFL mock draft 8.2: Pair of QBs go in first round, while Rueben Bain Jr. goes top 10
White Sox deal Lenyn Sosa to Toronto
The infielder is shipped out for a lottery ticket and loose change
Delta Air Lines rolls out new business class suites in premium push
The updated suites will be introduced on the airlines’ new A350-1000 jets that will enter service in 2027.
School's in Session, Part 2
Mark resumes his history lesson on how Secrets of Strixhaven came to be.
Philippine President Marcos debunks health rumors with jumping jacks
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has dismissed rumors about his health by doing jumping jacks and jogging outside his office.
Scientists are trying to build a vaccine that works against almost any respiratory pathogen — here's how close they are.
A nasal spray in mice boosted lung immunity against viruses, bacteria and allergens — but a truly universal vaccine is still years away.
Who is Peter Magyar, Hungary’s new leader who trounced Viktor Orban?
Magyar's centre-right Tisza Party has won a two-thirds majority in Hungary's parliamentary elections.
Your guide to who’s who in the MAHA movement
Sure, Americans know Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Mehmet Oz. But Marty Makary? Calley Means?
Philippines’ Marcos Dispels Health Rumors, Does Jumping Jacks
Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said he is healthy and fine, refuting social media posts speculating on his medical condition.
2026's Top 5 Public Couples Mark Entertainment's 'Open Love' Era
2026s Top 5 Public Couples Mark Entertainments Open Love Era From idols to actors, industrys top couples showcase love across genres, sparking fan celebrations
Business leaders urge Stormont to delay workers' rights reforms
The Good Jobs Bill would give workers a range of enhanced rights including an effective ban on zero hour contracts.
Cavs score vs Wizards. Injury report, regular-season finale highlights
The Cleveland Cavaliers and Washington Wizards end the 2025-26 NBA regular season season with a matchup at Rocket Arena. The playoffs await the Cavs.
Mauricio Dubon back in center for Braves-Guardians finale
With Michael Harris Jr. on the paternity list and Eli White day-to-day with plantar fasciitis, Mauricio Dubon will make his second straight start in center field for Sunday night’s finale of the Braves-Guardians series in Atlanta. Dubon will hit eighth in the lineup followed by Jorge Mateo, who will make his second straight start at […]
What Flutter Entertainment (FLUT)'s Board Shuffle, Buybacks and Quiet Dart Stake Mean For Shareholders
In recent days, Flutter Entertainment plc reported that long-serving independent director Alfred F. Hurley, Jr. will retire at the 2026 AGM, with Nancy Dubuc set to assume the role of Chair of the Compensation and Human Resources Committee, while the company continues executing a multi-billion-dollar share repurchase program. At the same time, billionaire investor Kenneth Dart has quietly built substantial economic exposure to Flutter through total return swaps, even as analysts question...
Blue Jays Facing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Decision After Unfortunate News
The Toronto Blue Jays were dealt an unfortunate blow against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Childers never doubted Victory Lane return: 'Not a chance in hell'
Rodney Childers, crew chief for Zilisch and JRM's No. 1 Chevrolet, responds when asked if he ever doubted he'd make it to Victory Lane again.
Tribal and Rural Healthcare at Risk in Oklahoma Gov. Stitt’s Attack on Medicaid
Guest Opinion Oklahoma leaders often visit Cherokee Nation’s Health System and celebrate our progress and tout our unmistakable impact on the health and economy of rural communities. Now, Governor Stitt is putting us on a path that will damage that very system. Recently the Oklahoma legislature passed Oklahoma HB 4440 and HJR 1067 to reverse […]
Columbus Aviators coach, ex-NFL player Ted Ginn Jr. arrested, charged for DUI in Texas
The Aviators are set to play the Dallas Renegades on Sunday, with the team saying that offensive coordinator Todd Haley will step in for that game.
Alexander Ovechkin receives standing ovation from rival Penguins crowd in potential last game in Pittsburgh
RFK Jr. Once Touted Raw Milk. Now He’s Stopped Talking About It.
The health secretary has instead promoted whole milk, a politically safer choice, as he seeks to avoid “weird stuff.”
Seniors: John Lemp, 70
Has been working for more than 50 years in the business — M. Lemp Jewelers in Syracuse — that his great-grandfather started in 1890 By Mary Beth Roach Don Lemp owns and represents the fourth-generation of the family business, M. Lemp Jewelers, but he still calls himself “a counter guy.” “I love interacting with couples. It’s a wonderful business. You’re celebrating marriages, engagements, births, anniversaries — all these different significant moments that people invite you into their lives for whatever brief period of time it might be to help them celebrate whatever their important occasion is,” he said. This is one of several reasons why Lemp, at 70, has been working for more than 50 years in the business that his great-grandfather started in 1890. Always located in the downtown Syracuse area, the store has been situated in the building that the family owns on East Fayette and Warren streets since 1971. He jokes that he’s been in the business so long he is now selling engagement rings to the second generation in some families. He also loves the opportunity to learn about the ever-changing industry and gemstones. “You have to know not only diamonds, but all the colored stones, from A to Z, from andalusite to zircons,” he said. Lemp said he had originally thought he wanted to become an attorney, but while working part-time in the store while attending college at Syracuse University, he decided to follow in the family business. His father, Walter D. Lemp Sr., and his mother tried to discourage their son from pursuing retail, reminding him of the hectic hours and lifestyle intrinsic in this business. But the younger Lemp [whose full name is Walter D. Lemp Jr.] prevailed. So, over the years, father and son got to work together in the family business for 35 years. And while many other jewelers retreated from downtown to suburban malls in the 1970s, the Lemps decided to stay downtown. And it’s a decision that Lemp Jr. feels it has worked out well. As he explained, downtown Syracuse is seeing a rebirth. One website, Point2Home.com, has noted that more than 6,000 people live there and the median income is about $62,000. In addition, according to the website that Lemp built years ago, the store can cater to customers throughout the country. His customers, whether from across the country or across Onondaga County, are just one reason that Lemp stays engaged in the business. His employees, the opportunity to continue to learn in an industry, and the challenge to continue to improve business are all other reasons, he noted. He’s also been able to travel to India to buy diamonds and he enjoys buying and selling estates. “I’d rather gallop in the corral than ride into the sunset,” Lemp said.
Ways the Golden Knights Can Clinch a Playoff Berth Tonight
The Vegas Golden Knights enter Saturday with a long-awaited opportunity to clinch a playoff berth, capping a season defined several […]
2026 Greenville Heart Walk shines spotlight on survivors and heart health
“The purpose, the meaning of this Heart Walk is just community.”
Detroit Lions 2026 NFL Draft Need Analysis: Quarterback
The Lions seem solid at the QB position for 2026, but could they add a developmental QB?
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Where to Watch Boston Red Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Live Stream, TV Channel for Saturday, April 11, 2026
The Red Sox and Cardinals continue their series in St. Louis on Saturday.
Masters 2026 3rd round leaderboard, live updates: Rory McIlroy carries historic lead into the weekend at Augusta National
As Election Looms, Will Alito Retire, Giving Trump a New Supreme Court Pick?
Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. is the subject of intense speculation about whether he will retire in the coming months and give President Trump a fourth nominee.
Omar Cooper Jr. NFL Draft Profile
Doug watches the college film to assess Omar Cooper Jr.'s strengths and weaknesses as well as what it likely means for his NFL future.
RFK Jr.’s new vaccine panel rules may help sidestep court order, experts say
Kennedy signed a new charter for the CDC’s vaccine advisory committee, adding more focus on vaccine injuries.
Laverne Cox and Roy Wood Jr. star in 'Outcome,' streaming on Apple TV
“Outcome” is now streaming on Apple TV
Michigan State's Jeremy Fears Jr. declares for NBA Draft, keeping college eligibility
Michigan State star Jeremy Fears Jr. announced on social media on Friday he is declaring for the NBA Draft but keeping his college eligibility.
Al Roker stops 'Today' interview with 'Laguna Beach' star over wardrobe malfunction: 'Guys, on live television?'
'Laguna Beach' star handled a wardrobe malfunction that occurred on live TV like a pro Friday on 'Today.'
The Trump administration just updated rules for CDC's vaccine advisory panel, allowing inclusion of RFK Jr. allies
The changes published Thursday come after a recent legal defeat that has at least temporarily halted meetings of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, which for decades has recommended how best to use the nation’s vaccines.
From politics to punches: Biden Jr challenges Trump sons to cage fight
US politics already feels like a contact sport, but one of Washington's most bitter political feuds may literally be headed to the mat after former president Joe Biden's son challenged
Detroit Lions 2026 NFL Draft Need Analysis: Wide Receiver
The Lions are well stocked at WR for 2026. Is there a chance they add to that position in the draft?
A local sports bar and grill is opening doors for inclusion and opportunity
As Autism Awareness Month continues, Wayne’s journey serves as a reminder of the importance of community support and the impact of giving everyone a chance to succeed.
NFL news, live updates: Texans reportedly pick up fifth-year options on QB C.J. Stroud and edge Will Anderson Jr.
Denver Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims, Jr. talks mental health with Aurora elementary students
Partnering with Aurora Mental Health & Recovery, Mims has prioritized discussing mental health with youth in the area.
Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) Stock Trades Down, Here Is Why
Shares of global online betting powerhouse Flutter Entertainment (NASDAQ:FLUT) fell 4.3% in the afternoon session after an analyst from Citizens lowered the price target for the company, citing a cautious outlook for the U.S. online gaming sector.
RFK Jr.’s HHS rewrites rules governing key CDC vaccine committee
US Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has approved changes to rules that govern an expert group that advises the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on its vaccine recommendations.
New Charter Allows RFK Jr. to Reclaim Vaccine Policy Despite Court Ruling
The charter, published on Thursday, alters the makeup and purpose of the panel, opening the door for Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to reclaim his revision of national vaccine policy.
Chinese business hired lobbyist with ties to Don Jr, then scored a win
A lobbying firm led by one of Donald Trump Jr.'s hunting buddies helped a Chinese company make its case to a U.S. national security watchdog.
Sources: DOJ opens antitrust investigation of NFL over TV deals
The Justice Department has begun an investigation into whether the NFL has violated anticompetitive practices with their television contracts that require consumers to pay subscription costs to watch some games, sources confirmed to ABC News.
HHS Secretary Kennedy announces launching of new health podcast
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced Thursday that he would be launching a health podcast.
RFK Jr. launches health podcast as his vaccine push stalls
The move follows setbacks to overhaul U.S. vaccination policy, including low public support and a federal court ruling that halted key plans.