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AI-Generated Mental Health Advice Misjudged Due To Differences In Stateless Versus Contextual Evaluations
Evaluations of AI dispensing mental health advice are often done in a manner that is radically different from real world usage. I showcase this. An AI Insider scoop.
Offense Lifeless As Guardians Lose Again
This game was one of the tougher watches I’ve had this season. The offense was beyond lifeless as they mustered just 5 hits with 8 strikeouts to 1 walk. This offense is not really capable of surviving Chase DeLauter rest days right now. The 1-2-3 of Kwan, Ramirez, Bazzana had 4 combined hits, the rest […]
Too much screen time may trigger lasting brain delays, top health official warns
Federal health officials unveil "the 5 Ds" framework to help parents combat screen addiction and protect children's attention, memory and language skills.
Brewers' Arnold Taking Responsible Approach to Deadline
Milwaukee Brewers President of Baseball Operations Matt Arnold will not be reckless at the upcoming MLB Trade Deadline.
Magomed Ankalaev Calls Out Next UFC Opponent
Former UFC light heavyweight champion Magomed Ankalaev called out his next opponent following his victory at UFC Abu Dhabi.Ankalaev defeated Bogdan Guskov via fifth-round TKO in what was a flawless victory at UFC Abu Dhabi. Though the fight wasn’t exactly exciting to watch, Ankalaev did what he needed to do to defeat Guskov and get […] The post Magomed Ankalaev Calls Out Next UFC Opponent appeared first on HEAVY.
A chance to work: Chattanooga man lands job after business owner sees viral Facebook post
What began as a simple Facebook post has now turned into a fresh start for one Chattanooga man.
Top Entertainment Stocks To Follow Now
Verizon Communications, Walt Disney, Warner Bros. Discovery, Autodesk, SEA, Take-Two Interactive Software, and Live Nation Entertainment are the seven Entertainment stocks to watch today, according to MarketBeat's stock screener tool. Entertainment stocks are shares of companies involved in produci
Red Sox Minor Lines: Kristian Campbell stays hot
Worcester: W, 6-5 (BOX SCORE) The WooSox now have 45 hits in their last three games. Although this game was close and the Jumbo Shrimp (Marlins AAA) were resilient, tagging every relief pitcher for runs in a bullpen game after Tyler Uberstine opened things up with a scoreless first, the WooSox simply just stayed one […]
AEW's Tony Khan on the business lessons he learned from his billionaire father Shad Khan
The All Elite Wrestling CEO said his father's journey to becoming a billionaire embodies the American dream.
Viktor Orbán calls for new era of 'resistance politics'
"It is pointless to deal with an inexorable, disgraced mafia boss," Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar wrote on Facebook on Saturday.
The countries with the highest and lowest birth rates, ranked
The global birth rate is less than half what it was in the 1960s. See the countries where birth rates are the highest and lowest.
I’m using my phone way less, and it’s making me happier
After some soul searching I realised my phone use is absolutely out of control and some changes were needed.
Coffee may help shield the liver from fat, scarring, and cancer
A major long-term study linked coffee consumption with lower risks of cirrhosis, liver cancer, and death from liver disease. Coffee drinkers also showed healthier liver scans and blood protein patterns, with less fat, inflammation, and scarring. Benefits appeared even at one or two cups daily and were strongest around three to four cups.
Yankees prospects: Cebert’s five scoreless caps off strong month
Recapping the Yankees’ minor league affiliates’ results from July 24th.
What are we overlooking in kids' mental health? Playing outside!
Most young people spend less time in nature than previous generations. They need it for their health and development.
Less booze, more moves: Inside Gen Z’s new social scene
Pubs have long served as a place where Britons meet up. But the social scene for Gen Z is diversifying, as health-conscious young people seek different ways to mix.
Revealed: history of Spain’s fearless 1970s trans-rights political collective
Pioneering activists risked arrest and imprisonment amid lingering persecution after Franco dictatorship
Andy Burnham and the rise of ‘aura farming’ in politics
Is “aura farming” the new political superpower? There are some days in TV news when you find yourself standing in the middle of a farm, surrounded by baby goats, trying to explain internet slang. Subscribe This was one of those days. There I was, in wellies, trying to unpack aura farming - a Gen Z term for carefully cultivating your image online so that you look effortlessly cool, authentic and charismatic. The trick, apparently, is that it can’t look like you’re trying too hard. Which, I’ll admit, felt slightly ironic as we filmed an entire report on a farm purely because the word farming is in the title. ‘Shaped by algorithms’ Whether you like it or not, politics increasingly feels like it’s being shaped by algorithms as much as manifestos. Take Andy Burnham. Since arriving at Number 10, he’s been impossible to miss online. One minute he’s out for a casual jog with Mo Farah. Next he’s announcing policy alongside TikTok high priestess Bus Aunty. His social media paints a very deliberate picture: less polished Westminster operator, more bloke from the North who just happens to be running the country. It’s not accidental. Burnham’s “King of the North”, New Order-loving persona has become part of a carefully constructed political brand. Authenticity is now something politicians work incredibly hard to make look effortless. But Burnham isn’t inventing this playbook. Like so many of us doomscrolling on an evening, he’s been influenced online. The digital strategy of New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, pictured above right, has become a case study in viral political communication, and some of the people behind that campaign have recently been advising the Labour Party in Britain. Their message is simple: if you want to reach younger voters, you need to show up where they already spend their time. Embracing content creators And increasingly, that doesn’t mean traditional news interviews (awkward). It means speaking to content creators like Max from The Career Ladder, whose channels reach around 20 million followers worldwide. His interview with Burnham, pictured below, was posted almost immediately after he became Prime Minister. What struck me wasn’t just the audience size, but something Max told me afterwards: many people in the comments said they’d discovered Britain had a new Prime Minister through his interview. Think about that for a moment. Not through rolling news. Not through newspapers. Through a creator they were already following while scrolling. Share That’s a profound shift in how political information reaches people, one that’s been gathering momentum for some time. It also explains why politicians are embracing content creators and spending millions on digital marketing. Of course, this isn’t unique to one party. ‘Personality before policy’ In many ways, the right were quicker off the mark in building their aura online. Donald Trump built much of his political identity on social media. Nigel Farage remains one of Britain’s strongest political performers on TikTok. Politicians across the spectrum now understand that personality often reaches people before policy does. During a six-week UK general election campaign alone, overall digital ad spending routinely tops £11m. Share Channel 4 News Former Number 10 social media adviser Andrew Wong put it well when he told me that “vibes” can help someone get noticed, but they only work if they’re rooted in a genuine personality. Force it, and audiences spot it instantly. The bigger question is whether internet charisma can backfire on you - especially when you’re Prime Minister. Because behind Burnham’s carefully curated videos is a veteran politician with decades of Westminster experience. The spontaneity is produced. While the authenticity may be genuine, it’s managed. That’s not necessarily a criticism. It’s simply the reality of modern political communication. Aura farming alone is not enough to harvest change. But in the age of algorithms, winning attention may be the first battle. Subscribe Share Channel 4 News Leave a comment
Putting South Carolina First Could Mean Less Power for Black Voters
The party’s latest calendar overhaul risks an unintended consequence for the voters it sought to empower.
Matt Mindrum: Don’t put a moratorium on Indianapolis’ growth
Marion County's data center moratorium sends a message that Indianapolis is becoming less open to business. It risks turning away billions in investment from some of the world’s fastest-growing industries.
GTA 6 download codes expire only 170 days after launch in Japan
Japanese digital download codes for GTA 6 expire less than six months after launch…
Samsung's Galaxy Watch 9 misses the mark while screenless trackers take over
Doubles down on smartwatches
More Than a Website: Advancing Healthcare Across Michigan - MHA | Michigan Health & Hospital Association
John Karasinski, vice president, communications, MHA Healthcare is built on connections. Every day, hospitals across Michigan provide care to patients and families, and resources to communities that improve health and well-being. Behind those efforts are countless healthcare professionals, trustees, policymakers, educators and community leaders working together to strengthen healthcare for…
Six Lessons From The Harvard Business School AI Project For Founders
Six Lessons From The Harvard Business School AI Project For Founders. HBS Foundary is a AI native platform developed at HBS to help founders
Emmy Rossum Finally Reveals The Truth Behind Her Shocking Exit From ‘Shameless’
The actor said she left the hit Showtimes series with “a lot of grief and sorrow.”
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The new prime minister will almost certainly have a short political honeymoon. How will he handle his first public meeting with Pope Leo XIV? In terms of symbolism, will he seek a blessing?
Does this disappearing organ hold the secret of longevity?
Scientists are increasingly focused on the thymus, an immune gland that naturally becomes less active with age.
The big healthcare fight Democrats keep dodging
The real lesson of Abdul El-Sayed’s latest pseudo-scandal.
The big healthcare fight Democrats keep dodging
The real lesson of Abdul El-Sayed’s latest pseudo-scandal.
White House offers its science blueprint: More AI, less life sciences
The Trump administration released its blueprint for U.S. science, calling for shifting hundreds of billions of research dollars from universities to industry.
'Trump Democrats' turf up for grabs as 3 chase open Macomb House seat
Less than two weeks before Michigan's Aug. 4 primary, there is no frontrunner in the Democratic race for an open suburban Detroit U.S. House seat.
How Trump upended the Saudi nuclear deal less than 24 hours after its signing
Trump abruptly announced Thursday that the deal was subject to a new condition: Saudi Arabia would have to join the Abraham Accords.
Report: Homelessness increases in parts of upstate while statewide level drops
This comes after DiNapoli’s office reported homelessness more than doubled between January 2022 and January 2024.
Wright State University and Premier Health Nursing Academy expands affordable pathway to nursing careers amid growing demand
Financial support, paid clinical experience and a direct connection to Premier Health are helping Wright State nursing students graduate with less debt while building a stronger local healthcare workforce. Continue reading →
5 Reasons to Buy the iPhone 17 Now Instead of Waiting for iPhone 18
Apple's iPhone 18 Pro models and its first foldable are less than two months from being unveiled. That may sound like a reason to sit tight if you're looking to upgrade from an iPhone 16 or older series, but between looming price hikes and Apple's new split-launch calendar, there's a decent case for grabbing an iPhone 17 series model right now. Here are five reasons in favor of putting your order in today. 1.
MeBeMe's new ‘interrupter’ app helps you become your best self instead of doomscrolling
MeBeMe delivers small tasks to help users become their best selves instead of endlessly scrolling.
Winter Garden considers first local business tax increase in more than 20 years
The increase would be less than $10 for most businesses, according to the agenda. Staff estimate the change would generate about $14,000 in additional revenue.
Cow visit brings food science lessons to life for Rice summer campers
Nearly 30 fourth and fifth grade students got a firsthand look at where milk comes from July 16 when a dairy cow named Luna visited Rice University as part of the Center for STEM Engagement’s new C.H.E.F. Lab (Creating Hands-on Experiments in Food Science).
GoPro Wireless Mic System review: An audio upgrade with fixable flaws
GoPro’s Wireless Mic System nails the basics, but it has some frustrating flaws.
West Virginia women can't afford another barrier to basic healthcare
For decades, women in West Virginia have learned to make do with less. Less access to healthcare. Less access to specialists.
California business owner says taxes and homelessness threaten his business
A ‘Fox News @ Night’ panel debates how the next California governor should address the economy and small businesses.
Alabama endures major roster turnover from 2025
TUSCALOOSA, Ala. (WIAT) — Less than 50% of Alabama’s 2025 roster is back with the Tide this season. One group bucking that trend, however, is the defensive back room. “The more time we’ve spent together, we’ve been able to communicate more,” cornerback Zabien Brown said. “You don’t have to spend as much time, you know, […]
Mental health intervention reduces aggression and reoffending among violent offenders
Prisoners convicted of serious violent offences were found to be less aggressive and less likely to reoffend following a mental health intervention which could save money and reduce harm to society, according to new research led by King's College London.
Lego’s Donkey Kong arcade machine lets Mario jump endless barrels
Nintendo had one special request, too.
You Can Now Fly Delta Business Class for a Lot Less, but There’s a Catch
Travelers can now book cheaper premium cabin tickets on Delta, but they’ll give up flexibility, lounge access, and other perks depending on the fare.
Trump’s Plan for Science: More Money for A.I., Less for Universities
Michael Kratsios, President Trump’s science adviser, proposed overhauling how the government funds research. Democrats said Mr. Trump’s actions had weakened science.
Trump’s Plan for Science: More Money for A.I., Less for Universities
Michael Kratsios, President Trump’s science adviser, proposed overhauling how the government funds research. Democrats said Mr. Trump’s actions had weakened science.
Health Watch: Teens feel less connected to their parents when they're on their phones, study finds
A Better Starting Point for Science and Society: Relationship vs. Transaction
A knowledge-deficit model underpins much of scientists’ communication to the public. The solution? Scientists need to more generous and less needy.
Framework Previews Its AMD Ryzen AI MAX+ PRO 495 PC Desktop With 192 GB Unified Memory That Effortlessly Runs DeepSeek V4-Flash at Q8
Framework previewed its upcoming Desktop with the AMD Ryzen AI MAX+ 495 chip with 192 GB memory that effortlessly runs DeepSeek V4-Flash.
Google is making it easier to switch from iPhone to Android
The new feature lets users wirelessly transfer more data types from an iPhone without needing to download a separate app.
Memphis pizza shop says business is booming after refusing service to National Guard troops
Miles Tamboli says the Memphis Safe Task Force makes the city less safe, and his pizza shop is seeing a surge of local supporters after the boycott call.
CDC cuts leave US less prepared for disease outbreaks, former officials warn
As measles, hantavirus and cyclospora spread, experts say lost staff and expertise are slowing the response
NC State’s schedule could open unexpected darkhorse path
The college football season is less than a month away, and the race for a College Football Playoff berth is about to begin. The expanded playoff field will almost certainly feature some new faces. One of those teams could come…
Many kids don’t eat enough veggies. Amid a parasite outbreak in the US, what’s a parent to do?
An outbreak of cyclospora has some people eating less produce, but a global study found kids eat too few fruits and vegetables. Here’s what parents should know.
From Paper to Action: How Systematic Monitoring Can Help Health Benefits Packages Deliver on Their Promise
Health Benefits Packages (HBPs) can be a strategic tool to advance Universal Health Coverage. But their impact depends not only on the services included, but also on whether people effectively receive those services with adequate quality and financial protection. It also depends on the factors behind implementation gaps. While there is no shortage of guidance for using evidence-informed priority-setting approaches, less attention has been paid to monitoring whether, how, and why HBPs deliver (or not) in the real world. This gap matters, particularly in the context of stagnating progress towards Universal Health Coverage, because it leaves policymakers in the dark: Are HBPs delivering on the promise made to the population? If not, why, and what corrective action can be taken?
More Women Own Businesses Than Ever. But Are Female Entrepreneurs Better Off?
More women own businesses than ever, but most earn less than the jobs they left. Why the women-owned business boom isn't the win it appears to be.
West Virginia women can't afford another barrier to basic healthcare
For decades, women in West Virginia have learned to make do with less. Less access to healthcare. Less access to specialists.
World Cup lessons for Kansas City small business: Show passion, embrace local, be an 'experience'
Not every business saw a boost from visiting fans, but some leveraged a prime location, ingenuity in planning, or a personal connection to get a boost from the FIFA World Cup's stint in Kansas City.
Democratic Rep. Crow: ‘Americans are done with endless conflict in the Middle East’
Garmin's Screenless Cirqa Health Tracker Will Be Available This Week
Unlike similar screen-free wearables, no subscription is required.
New Behavioral Health Director Announced
Dr. Cari Yardley has been selected as Nevada County Behavioral Health and Homelessness Director effective August 3rd.Dr. Yardley has been with Nevada County since 2021, serving as Acting Behavioral He
Broward Health hosts 1st Bump, Baby and Beyond Fair to help expectant parents
Broward Health is working to make preparing for a baby a little less intimidating by connecting expectant families with resources, doctors and information before delivery day.
US attorney who Trump fired minutes after he got the job sues to get it back
A former US attorney in Washington state is suing the Trump administration for firing him less than one hour after a panel of federal judges unanimously voted to appoint him to the role.
Less invasive anesthesia strategies during TAVR linked to a key benefit
Long-term TAVR outcomes were comparable. When tracking 30-day data, however, researchers found that hospital readmission was much less common for patients treated with regional anesthesia or moderate sedation.
SGMC Health’s Hospitalist Group Honored with Relentless Pursuit of Perfection Award
SGMC Health announces that its hospitalist group, Apogee Physicians, has been honored by its national leadership with the Relentless Pursuit of Perfection Award.
Instagram will let users endlessly swap the audio on old posts
Recent features make sense for creators — not so much average users
Garmin Finally Made A Screenless Fitness Tracker
The Cirqa Smart Band is Garmin’s answer to Whoop and the Fitbit Air.
TreeSize won't renew perpetual-license support unless users subscribe
Current economic conditions" have shifted TreeSize's business model.
Bills open practice tickets sell out Tuesday in less than 20 minutes
The special practice is a chance for non-season ticket holders to get into the new Highmark Stadium for the first time.
Wix Headless Brings Wix’s Full Business Infrastructure to AI Coding Tools and Vibe Platforms
New capability lets builders turn any AI-generated frontends into fully operational businesses with Wix-managed hosting, SEO, analytics, and integ...
Garmin challenges Whoop with subscription-free Cirqa Smart Band
The Cirqa's screen-less design may not command attention, but the data should
iPhone 18 Rumor Check: 20 Claims Ranked by Likelihood
Apple's iPhone 18 Pro models and its first foldable iPhone are less than two months away from being unveiled, with the standard iPhone 18, iPhone 18e, and iPhone Air 2 expected to follow in spring 2027 as part of the company's new split-launch strategy. We've looked back at everything we know so far, and ranked the most consistent rumors, followed by the more speculative ones.
Halliday’s latest smart glasses feature a much-improved display
The new display is 1,000 percent less stupid.
5 lessons from 20 years of climate surveys: Political party matters, but it doesn’t explain everything
Why would a young Republican back solar but reject a carbon tax? Twenty years of survey data shows climate opinion is more complex than party labels suggest.
Despite outrage at Sony's shift towards a discless future, only seven PlayStation games have managed more than 100,000 physical sales in the US this year
Game discs might be loved, but data shows they don't sell in meaningful quantities.
Science and the public are learning the wrong lessons from Covid
“Post-pandemic polarization threatens to lock our memories into attractive, untrue conclusions that will leave us unprotected next time,” write Marc Lipsitch and Sara Cody.
J.J. McCarthy Receives Strong Take Amid Vikings QB Competition
The Minnesota Vikings will use a QB competition between J.J. McCarthy and Kyler Murray to determine their starter for the 2026 NFL season. Nonetheless, even with the competition ongoing, many expect Murray to emerge victorious.Murray is looking to show that he’s still a starting QB despite the Arizona Cardinals cutting ties with him this offseason. […] The post J.J. McCarthy Receives Strong Take Amid Vikings QB Competition appeared first on HEAVY.
Tom Brady’s Viral Weekend Was A Business Lesson Sports Media Missed
"Far too many were eager to mock a staged wrestling angle, a promotional appearance, or a calculated branding move that they overlooked what was actually happening." The post Tom Brady’s Viral Weekend Was A Business Lesson Sports Media Missed appeared first on Barrett Media.
From Attention to Intention: Inside the Vogue Business x Pinterest Cannes Brunch
Less URL, more IRL. Brands are changing their strategies to account for more time spent offline.
Wildfires impacting businesses in northern Minnesota
Many businesses near the gunflint trail remain open regardless of wildfires. Golden Eagle Lodge is one of them. Owner of the resort Ruth Wagner joins All Day to talk about how they are open for business and safe from the fires.
Steelers Backup QB Battle Makes Four-Quarterback Roster Idea Unlikely
One of the battles on display in Latrobe for the Pittsburgh Steelers will be the competition for the backup quarterback job. Mason Rudolph and Will Howard will compete for the role, with the loser likely receiving a ticket out of Pittsburgh, unless the Steelers decide to get creative and find a way to keep all of them. One local beat writer proposed that idea, and it’s something the Steelers have done before.
Kovert Creative Taps Mallory Morehead Pritzl for Entertainment PR Team
Based in L.A., Morehead Pritzl will oversee comms for programming-focused clients ‘Jimmy Kimmel Live!’, Paper Kite Prods. and SmartLess Media while working with Bloomberg Media and Spotify.
This Is Where A Year Of Health Care Costs Less Than A Month In The US
This American moved to Spain and now saves thousands in health care, enjoys a lower cost of living, made new friends, bought property, and lives a fulfilling life abroad
Lessons from the wild
Plant scientists at Washington University in St. Louis organize research on wild plant diseases that could help agricultural systems endure climate change.
MTG pounces on Hegseth, claiming US troop casualties 'fuel' his 'bloodlust for a senseless war'
Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene accused War Secretary Pete Hegseth of "bloodlust" in response to a post Hegseth issued about fallen U.S. service members.
Shaky political "science": breakdown of the peer review process
[This article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in December 2025, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting (RCV). Many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first four articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report; the second one analyzed a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report; a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research; and a fourth article that analyzed seven studies sponsored by New America’s political reform program that deployed flawed methodology based on “simulated” elections instead of real-world elections, which when combined with some basic misunderstandings of RCV, produced odd and misleading results]. In this fifth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we examine two flawed studies on the impact of RCV on voter turnout authored by San Francisco State University professor Jason McDaniel. McDaniel’s research in these two papers stands out for its puzzling methodology, inadequate and cherry-picked data, and faulty analyses that not only misunderstands ranked choice voting but reflects a basic misunderstanding of politics in general. The first of the McDaniel studies actually passed through a peer review process and then was subsequently published by the Journal of Urban Affairs, despite its obvious errors. It is perplexing that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the errors and send it back to McDaniel for a rewrite or outright rejection. This calls into question the credibility of the peer review process itself. The peer review process is supposed to represent the intellectual pinnacle of the profession – a way for academics to certify the quality of each other’s work, and to act as a check against sloppy research. In the case of the McDaniel study, the peer review process failed. Yet his flawed study has been cited dozens of times by other political scientists in their own flawed works — an unvirtuous circle of academic research. Here is the first Jason McDaniel study that we analyzed: “Writing the Rules to Rank the Candidates: Examining the Impact of Instant-Runoff Voting on Racial Group Turnout in San Francisco Mayoral Elections,” by Jason McDaniel, 2016, Journal of Urban Affairs. This study covered San Francisco’s use of ranked choice voting (RCV) in mayoral elections, purporting to show that RCV reduces voter turnout overall, increases voter errors, and has a negative impact on “marginal populations,” i.e. racial minorities, mainly as the result of the alleged complexity of RCV asking voters to rank candidates and having to be familiar with multiple candidates and related dynamics. McDaniel reached these conclusions by examining five San Francisco mayoral elections taking place in odd years (i.e. where there are no federal or state races on the ballot) from 1995 to 2011, comparing three earlier non-RCV races (in 1995, 1999 and 2003) with the later two RCV races (in 2007 and 2011). Only two RCV races were studied, and as McDaniel acknowledged, only the contest in 2011 was “competitive” (that contest in 2007 was the first mayoral election using RCV, and incumbent mayor Gavin Newsom won easily in the first round of counting, earning 74% of first choices and far ahead of the second place candidate who had just 6.3% of first choices). Yet even the allegedly competitive contest in 2011was won by an incumbent with a landslide margin of nearly 20 points. No other elections were studied by McDaniel, even though San Francisco elects 17 other offices besides mayor with RCV, including the 11 seats on the Board of Supervisors (the name for the city council) in even years, and six other citywide offices in odd years. Previous academic research has found that competitive elections can stimulate greater voter involvement and higher turnout. For unexplained reasons, this study ignored at least 34 other RCV races between the years 2004 to 2011, many of which were very competitive and had high voter turnout. Instead, McDaniel’s analysis based its conclusions on data from only a single, marginally-competitive mayor’s race using RCV. These 2007 and 2011 mayoral elections were the only two RCV elections that McDaniel used as the sole basis for his small data set to determine the impact of RCV on voter turnout. Despite having no meaningful data to inform his study, McDaniel nonetheless concluded that RCV lowered turnout when compared to the previous three mayoral non-RCV elections using two-round runoffs. Then, using the same inadequate database of San Francisco elections, McDaniel also found that “Instant-runoff voting is associated with a significant decline in Black voter turnout and White voter turnout…On average, Black voter turnout decreases by 18 points and White voter turnout decreases by 16 points …” But how could he credibly arrive at that conclusion when his study was based on voter turnout in two RCV contests that were not even remotely competitive? Beyond that, McDaniel tacitly admits that the key determining factor driving Black voter turnout was not RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable Black candidate. McDaniel wrote, “Black voter turnout was about 17 percentage points higher for the two elections that featured an African American candidate compared to the three elections that did not” — but one of those three elections did not use RCV. The same dynamic was present for White voter turnout, in which higher turnout was not correlated with RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable White candidate. Beyond that, McDaniel’s voter turnout results, whether correlated with the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections, showed no clear patterns. In his Figure 1, he shows low Asian voter turnout in the non-RCV elections in 1999 and 2003 when there was no viable Asian candidate running, but in the 2007 mayoral election using RCV, there is still no viable Asian candidate, yet Asian turnout increases dramatically. For Latinos, voter turnout is virtually the same in 1999 (no viable Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2003 (leading Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2007 (no viable Latino candidate, RCV elections) and 2011 (leading Latino candidate, RCV elections). Meanwhile White voter turnout increased dramatically from a low in the 2007 mayoral election, in which the leading candidate was a white incumbent, to the 2011 election in which there were no leading white candidates that finished any higher than sixth place with 5.6% of the vote. Clearly other factors were determining voter turnout than either the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections. Despite these inconsistent findings, McDaniel boldly marches forth to render conclusions about the impact of RCV on different groups of racial voters, even though his conclusions are not remotely supported by his data. This looks like the worst kind of “data cherry picking” to cover up a puzzling conclusion based on a poor data set involving only two RCV elections, neither of which were remotely competitive. McDaniel’s cherry picking didn’t stop there. In calculating voter turnout for the three non-RCV mayoral elections in 1995, 1999 and 2003, he failed to mention that in each of these years there was a two-round runoff election, with a first round election in November in which no candidate garnered a winning majority of the vote, followed by the decisive runoff in December. So there were two non-RCV elections in each election year. But McDaniel only decided to include one of the two elections in his data set, apparently the December runoff in each year (which had higher turnout in two out of the three mayor’s races, and lower turnout in the third). So he ignored the November 1995 election, the November 1999 election when turnout was only 45 percent, and the November 2003 election when turnout was only 45.7 percent. This is flawed methodology based on blatant cherry picking, since McDaniel simply omitted three elections worth of data that did not fit within his frame. His study should never have made it through a peer review process, and it is an embarrassment to political science that not only was it approved for publication, but it has been uncritically cited by dozens of other political scientists. Share A “study” without wider context or credible data Lacking a data set that included even a single competitive RCV mayoral race, McDaniel declared that RCV lowered voter turnout in 2011, when turnout was 42.5 percent. But he also ignored -- or did not realize -- that voter turnout in mayoral elections during 2011 had sharply declined in all big cities, including far more steeply in nearby Los Angeles and other cities. In fact, San Francisco’s election in 2011 had the second highest turnout of any mayoral election in the nation’s 22 largest cities from 2008-2011. Was 2011 just a particularly low turnout year all across the country, perhaps because the country was still reeling from the aftermath of the housing market collapse in 2008-2010? McDaniel ignored this factor and did not search for alternative explanations beyond his flawed thesis. Furthermore, while McDaniel suggested that RCV leads to more “overvotes” – which is an invalidated ballot in which a voter, in either a non-RCV or RCV race, makes a mistake and selects two candidates for a single choice – he failed to address that in the June 2012 US Senate primary contest, which used the typical “one-choice” plurality method and did not use RCV, there was more than five times as many overvotes in San Francisco and Oakland than in the RCV mayoral elections in those cities. Additionally, turnout had been significantly higher and more representative in RCV elections for the San Francisco Board of Supervisors races -- that McDaniel didn’t even bother to study -- as compared to previous “delayed two-round runoffs” for those offices, often higher by as much as 40% in the RCV races. Perhaps the most surprising irony was that an earlier study co-authored by McDaniel (Overvoting and the Equality of Voice under Instant-Runoff Voting in San Francisco by Francis Neely and Jason McDaniel, 2015, California Journal of Politics and Policy) found that overvotes are often more common in lower-income precincts, but that the pattern of overvoting is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. Wrote Neely and McDaniel: “[Overvote] errors appear to be a function of complexity in general and not IRV per se…. the pattern of overvoting is similar in both IRV and non-IRV contests…Even among votes cast in a top-of-the-ticket race like U.S. Senate, overvoting occurs in an uneven fashion” (IRV, or ‘instant runoff voting,’ is another name for ranked choice voting in single-winner contests). So McDaniel not only contradicted his own conclusion in his earlier study with Neely, but the earlier study had been an important corrective for one of the most frequently made mistakes made by anti-RCV political scientists – a continual failure to provide crucial context by pairing a comparative analysis of real world RCV elections with an analysis of real world plurality or other electoral methods. Unfortunately McDaniel’s earlier study does not get cited much by other researchers, and McDaniel did not even cite it in his own flawed study analyzed above. Incredibly, McDaniel cherrypicked McDaniel, even as his flawed study has been cited dozens of times. Despite being a textbook example of poor political “science,” featuring both inadequate as well as cherrypicked data, the shelf life of McDaniel’s study has been extended endlessly by other political scientists and media outlets who have cited it uncritically. Equally troubling, the Journal of Urban Affairs put this paper through its peer review process and published it despite its numerous flaws. McDaniel gets it wrong, Part II Not content with producing one shoddy, confused paper, McDaniel produced another one a few years later, here is the link: Electoral Rules and Voter Turnout in Mayoral Elections: An Analysis of Ranked-Choice Voting by Jason McDaniel. San Francisco State Univ. (McDaniel, 2019). In this paper, McDaniel extended his previous flawed research focused on San Francisco, about voter turnout and voter impact, to multiple RCV cities through the 2018 elections. In his data set he included San Francisco, Minneapolis, St Paul, Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro and Santa Fe. He then compared their turnout in mayoral elections to non-RCV cities, and to mayoral elections in those cities held before first RCV usage, and concluded “a significant decrease in voter turnout of approximately 3–5 percentage points in RCV cities after the implementation of RCV.” But he replicated many of the same mistakes as his first study presented above. While in this study McDaniel attempted to distinguish between various factors, such as odd year vs. even year elections, competitive races vs. noncompetitive, contests with open seats and other factors, the analysis is superficial and inadequate. He attempts to incorporate so many often-conflicting variables that his conclusions are once again unsupported by the actual data, and ultimately unconvincing (this second study never underwent a peer review process). For example, McDaniel declared that for RCV cities “in elections that are more competitive than average (margin of victory less than 20%), there is no significant RCV effect on voter turnout.” Yet McDaniel is a professor in a city, San Francisco, in which the 2018 special election using RCV to fill a mayoral vacancy was exceedingly close, decided by a margin of only one percentage point, and resulted in the second highest turnout in San Francisco history for a mayoral election. Illustrating the complexity involved in assessing the critical factors in turnout, that special election was held on the same election day as federal and state offices, which tends to boost turnout. Yet more voters participated in that RCV mayoral election than voted on the same day in the non-RCV primary for governor in which former San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom was running. Even more puzzling, in this study McDaniel inaccurately cited his own previous study from 2015 with Neely. McDaniel wrote, “Neely and McDaniel (2015) examine individual ballot image files within a natural experiment, and find higher rates of ballot errors in RCV elections compared to non-RCV elections” (emphasis added). However, we quoted from that 2015 study several paragraphs above, and in actual fact Neely and McDaniel actually concluded the opposite -- that the pattern of overvoting – which is the most common form of ballot error – is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. McDaniel also ignored the fact that in Bay Area RCV elections held in even years – at the same time as federal and state elections, when turnout is highest -- the “undervote” (that is, the dropoff in ballots cast for governor or mayor) has declined, which contradicts his thesis that the act of ranking ballots in RCV elections is too complex and presents a barrier for certain demographics of voters. To his credit, McDaniel actually acknowledged another contradiction in his own paper, which found a negative RCV turnout effect in some odd-year elections but not others, admitting that “may present a challenge to the theory that increased complexity [from RCV] will have a marginal negative effect on voter turnout.” But he tried to wallpaper over that contradiction by blaming it on an unlikely source -- bad election administration. McDaniels wrote, “This would suggest that the negative impact of RCV on voter participation may be alleviated by high quality election administration,” without presenting any data or even anecdotes to support such an unfounded theory. While competent election administration of any election, whether RCV or non-RCV, is crucially important, there is no credible research that supports the far-fetched notion that the quality of election administration has much of an impact on voter turnout in US elections, whether using RCV or otherwise. Upgrade to a $5 subscription The unvirtuous circle of academic research It is puzzling how McDaniel’s first study could have survived the peer review process for the Journal of Urban Affairs. The mistakes in McDaniel’s first study above should have been obvious to anyone with a basic understanding of ranked choice voting as well as elections in general, and elections in San Francisco specifically. It undermines faith in the credibility of the peer review process to think that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the egregious errors and reject McDaniel’s sloppy research and paper. And it remains a black mark on political science that this thoroughly discredited study has been cited dozens of times by other researchers. Indeed, in our research paper it became apparent that many political scientists cite each other’s flawed research to pad their list of citations and to legitimize their own flawed research, creating an unvirtuous circle of political science. More broadly, McDaniel’s voter turnout studies, like other studies evaluating RCV’s impact on turnout, lacked a recognition that no credible opinion or research can claim that RCV increases voter turnout merely because so many voters are excited to vote for their favorite candidates instead of “lesser evil” candidates without worrying about spoilers. Instead, with respect to turnout, the advantage of RCV has always been that, in most places where it has been used, it has eliminated a pre-November primary or post-November runoff, which usually saw about half the turnout of the November general election. This is especially true during even years when there are state and federal elections on the ballot which substantially drive turnout more than local contests. Any study that does not adequately account for this non-November primary/runoff vs November general election dynamic, or odd year vs even year election factors, is simply not credible. Both of McDaniel’s studies largely failed on those grounds. Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to a $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS…your digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
Switch 2 modding scene makes new breakthrough, but Nintendo safe from piracy
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I’m not sure how many of you are watching “Star City,” Apple TV’s spin-off of its “For All Mankind” program (2019-present), but it’s one of the better sci-fi series I’ve seen in a while, with an impressively dark political message. (Some light spoilers below.) For the uninitiated, “For All Mankind” presented a slightly tweaked history of the U.S. space program in which it was the USSR that landed on the Moon first in 1969, and shortly thereafter put a woman cosmonaut on the lunar surface. This sparks an ongoing space race that, in the original series, yields a lot of benefits for humanity. President Nixon’s insistence on a female astronaut corps to compete with the Soviets boosts the feminist movement of the 1970s and the ERA passes. New fuels generated for the space program create clean and cheap energy around Earth. There are also some darker changes — the USSR is thriving well into the 2000s, there are terrorist counter-technology movements around the globe, laborers on Mars work in nightmarish conditions and organize strikes and riots, etc. the @smotus report is a reader-supported publication. To support this work, please become a paid subscriber. Subscribe That show offers glimpses into the subtle ways this Earth is different. Teddy Kennedy never went to Chappaquidick because he was racing back to Washington to deal with the space program crisis; he gets elected President in 1972. John Lennon survives his early 1980s shooting but Pope John Paul II does not. The Apple Newton succeeded. Pretty much the whole of season 4 is a setup for an Al Gore joke. Again, mostly, the vision that “For All Mankind” presents is a positive one, with technology advancing many human interests. “Star City” goes in a very different direction. This spin-off show is about the same set of events but from the Soviet perspective. As we meet them, the team of scientists and cosmonauts responsible for the lunar landing are still basking in their hero status, but their program is embedded deep in the Soviet security state of the late 1960s. Everyone’s apartment is bugged. Whole teams of clerical staff spend their days transcribing recordings of people’s lives. People in the program, including respected cosmonauts, are regularly arrested. An incredibly menacing Colonel Lyudmilla Raskova (Anna Maxwell Martin) forces confessions and tortures and kills, expressing little more than annoyance in the process. Meanwhile, the space program’s highly respected Chief Designer (Rhys Ifans) has a vision for the program that he knows the government will not approve. He insists that they need to think past the Moon to focus on colonizing the solar system, starting with Venus. (This is a rough parallel to the Americans’ pivot to Mars in the original show.) He essentially builds a secret space program within the space program, calculating that the government will embrace the mission after it has succeeded. (As an aside, I’m not sure why the Venus obsession, as a successful mission can’t produce the biggest public relations payoff: a cosmonaut standing on the surface holding the Soviet flag. Anyone standing on Venus would be immediately crushed by the 92-bar atmosphere and then cremated in the 900°F temperatures. But in a country with no free press perhaps the visual payoff was less valued.) But the overall vision is that the technological advances have only amplified the most fearsome aspects of the Soviet system. The state is paranoid (but not incorrect) about American spies and does monstrous things to protect its secrets. People are terrified to trust each other. Classic banality-of-evil figures order people to harm those they care about; those people comply rather than get shot. Others are forced into criminal behavior to protect loved ones. We’re reminded all the time these days of what happens when a government despises science. It manifests in the defunding of schools, the elevation of fossil fuels as the rest of the world pivots to solar, outbreaks of measles and diarrhea, etc. But “Star City” offers a vision of a bad government that likes science. It’s not encouraging. It’s not yet clear if there will be a season two of this show. But I strongly recommend season one. It’s both thoughtful and gripping. Share
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