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Top 5: UFC Winnipeg ‘Fight of the Night’ candidates
A crowd-pleasing style had Kyler Phillips on the brink of contention in the Ultimate Fighting Championship bantamweight division not that long ago.
Scientists Reveal Why Bread Can Cause Weight Gain Without Overeating
It's not just 'calories in, calories out'.
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin weighs in on New York politics
The former 2022 GOP gubernatorial candidate cautioned New York lawmakers from backing tax hikes.
Walmart Health Services Expands GLP-1 Access
Walmart’s Better Care Services now offers weight management support for GLP-1 therapies.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: Who wins heavyweight clash? Series keys, schedule and prediction
Artificially sweetened beverages may benefit healthy weight, but water works better | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
Increasing intake of water or artificially sweetened drinks was associated with less weight gain over time, compared to increased sugary drink intake.
Scientists discover natural hormone that reverses obesity
A hormone called FGF21 can reverse obesity in mice by activating a newly identified brain circuit tied to metabolism. Surprisingly, it works in the hindbrain—the same region targeted by GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy—but through a completely different mechanism. Instead of suppressing appetite, FGF21 ramps up the body’s energy burning. This insight could pave the way for more targeted weight-loss and liver disease treatments.
Markets are correctly perceiving that politics will steer rate policy, says CIO
Rich Weiss, CIO of Multi-Asset Strategies at American Century Investments, says that markets are correctly predicting that politics will triumph over economics in pressuring the Fed to cut rates.
This CEO wants to cover weight loss drugs for employees. They're just too expensive.
As demand for GLP-1 drugs surges, employers and insurers are struggling to keep up with the cost. Some are dropping coverage altogether.
FDA to weigh easing limits on unproven peptides favored by RFK Jr. and MAHA supporters
The Food and Drug Administration will hold a meeting this summer to consider easing restrictions on more than a half dozen peptide injections, a group of unapproved therapies that have become popular among wellness influencers, fitness gurus and celebrities.
Two Floridians in Congress face mounting pressure to resign
Members of Congress are weighing in on Rep. Cherfilus-McCormick and Rep. Cory Mills.
Sen. Ron Johnson weighs in on Iran war, gas prices, Wisconsin state politics
The Republican senator joined WPR’s "Wisconsin Today" as Congress is back in Washington to tackle big issues.
Democratic lawmakers seek fix to Colorado’s stalled prison population plan
Colorado’s prison population plan was designed to prevent overcrowding. Instead, eight months after it was triggered, the system remains strained and largely ineffective, prompting two Democratic lawmakers to push for changes through new legislation. According to its sponsors, Senate Bill 036 lays out the proposed changes. Sen. Mike Weissman and Sen. Julie Gonzales say the […]
Ceasefire or escalation? Trump weighs Iran talks amid troop surge
Tehran has floated an extension of the two-week ceasefire, set to expire Tuesday, that is under active consideration by the U.S. side.
From The Sports Desk: NBA award picks
The NBC News sports staff weighs in on the MVP race, Rookie of the Year and more.
RFK Jr. promotes peptides. Now the FDA weighs easing limits on the unproven chemicals
A panel of outside advisers will review seven peptides at a meeting in July to determine if the unapproved drugs can be safely produced by pharmacies.
AG Keith Ellison seeks public comment on Sutter Health’s acquisition of Allina Health
Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison is asking for the community to weigh in on a proposed acquisition of Allina Health by Sutter Health.
FDA to weigh easing limits on unproven peptides favored by RFK Jr. and other MAHA figures
Peptides are unproven chemicals often pitched as way to build muscle, lose weight, look younger.
Preview: UFC Winnipeg Prelims
The UFC Winnipeg undercard features several debuting Canadian prospects—and the Octagon return of one well-remembered heavyweight character.
Jury selection starts for Harvey Weinstein's latest retrial in N.Y. rape case
It's the third time that jurors will weigh whether he raped a woman.
FDA to Weigh Easing Limits on Unproven Peptides Favored by RFK Jr. and Other MAHA Figures
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Food and Drug Administration will hold a meeting this summer to consider easing restrictions on more than a half dozen peptide injections, a group of unapproved therapies that have become popular among wellness influencers, fitness gurus and celebrities. The meeting ...
HEALTH Yeah! Episode 29: When Kids Don’t Sleep: What Parents Should Know
In this podcast episode, you'll learn about sleep studies, treatment options and how poor sleep can affect behavior, weight and more.
StarTalk: w/ Andy Weir on the Science of Project Hail Mary (Transcript)
Editor's Notes: In this episode of StarTalk, Neil deGrasse Tyson welcomes back acclaimed sci-fi author Andy Weir to discuss the intricate scientific foundations of his latest bestseller-turned-film, Project Hail Mary. The duo explores the fascinating
Gary Gensler Paved the Way for Prediction Markets. Sports Betting Wasn’t Part of the Plan.
Kalshi and Polymarket say their sports bets are allowed under federal law. States argue otherwise. The designer of the law is weighing in.
Why Many Americans Are Turning to AI for Health Advice, According to Recent Polls
NEW YORK (AP) — When Tiffany Davis has a question about a symptom from the weight-loss injections she’s taking, she doesn’t call her doctor. She pulls out her phone and consults ChatGPT. “I’ll just basically let ChatGPT know my status, how I’m feeling,” said the 42-year-old in Mesquite, Texas. “I ...
Recap: Sporting KC eliminated from U.S. Open Cup
Sporting Kansas City was eliminated from the U.S. Open Cup in the Round of 32 following a 3-0 defeat to Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC at Weidner Field on Tuesday night. Head coach Raphael Wicky made three changes from Saturday’s loss to San Jose, handing starts to Jansen Miller, Jake Davis
Judge weighs whether ethics case should proceed against Councilmember Paladino
Paladino has several days to provide a written response.
Local High School Students Get A Taste Of The Business World
WEIRTON — More than 80 area high school juniors got a chance to step into the business world Tuesday with help from the Weirton Area Chamber of Commerce. The chamber welcomed students from Brooke, Madonna, Oak Glen, Weir, Indian Creek and Steubenville high schools to the annual Dr. Barbara A. Matey High School Business Symposium, […]
Mayor Jones seeks business input on zoning rules for private detention facilities
SAN ANTONIO - Mayor Gina Ortiz Jones is asking the city’s economic development leaders to weigh in on a proposed zoning ordinance that would regulate where non-
NFL Draft in Pittsburgh expected to boost business in nearby Weirton
The NFL draft will take over the city of Pittsburgh next week, with hundreds of thousands of visitors expected in town for the event.While the bulk of the actio
Dr. Laura Riley to Unify Women’s Health Care Across Weill Cornell in New Role
As executive director for women’s health, a role that complements her position leading obstetrics and gynecology, Dr. Riley will unify, coordinate and drive new paradigms for women’s health care across medical specialties.
Some people don’t lose weight with GLP-1s. Evidence is building that the drugs are helping anyway
The majority of people who start taking GLP-1 medicines with the hope of losing weight, the drugs can quiet cravings and help them shed stubborn pounds. But research is also continuing to reveal GLP-1 medicines’ benefits independent of weight loss — even if people gain weight.
GLP-1 medicine improves liver health independent of weight loss, study finds
Researchers at Toronto's Sinai Health have found that semaglutide—the active ingredient in popular weight loss drugs that mimic the gut hormone GLP-1—acts directly on a subset of liver cells to improve ...
I'm 87 and lift weights, do yoga, and cycle weekly
Peter Brenner, 87, says cycling, yoga, weights, and a simple diet have helped him stay fit after a childhood marked by war, loss, and hardship.
Scientists discover why bread can cause weight gain without extra calories
Bread and other carbohydrate staples may be doing more than just filling plates—they could be quietly reshaping metabolism. In a surprising twist, researchers found that mice strongly preferred carbs like bread, rice, and wheat, abandoning their regular diet entirely. Even without eating more calories, they gained weight and body fat, not because they overate, but because their bodies burned less energy.
Open-air driving pleasure in the new Porsche 911 GT3 S/C
Lightweight cabriolet with a high-revving naturally aspirated engine and manual transmission.
US states drop Medicaid coverage of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs as demand rises
Experts say any short-term financial benefit will be outweighed by long-term health costs related to obesity
Paulo Costa and Josh Hokit trade shots on social media
UFC 327 last Saturday was heavyweight Josh Hokit's coming out party. He garnered attention with his media antics leading up to the event and then put on a performance that won't soon be forgotten. Unranked Hokit faced No. 5 ranked Curtis Blaydes in a main card matchup and was part of what some are ...
Harvey Weinstein is going on trial again in a New York rape case
Harvey Weinstein is going on trial again on a rape charge in New York City, after years of #MeToo infamy, legal peril and prison | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
Harvey Weinstein is going on trial again in a New York rape case
Harvey Weinstein is going on trial again on a rape charge in New York City, after years of #MeToo infamy, legal peril and prison | 104.1 FM KMOX
Asking Eric: ‘Very online’ girlfriend shares too much with strangers
Letter writer is weirded out by strangers replying to girlfriend’s posts about them.
Weird Stat Shows Why Yankees' Offense Might be Struggling
It's been a somewhat interesting start to the 2026 campaign for the New York Yankees. On the surface, I'm not too upset with how New York has played.
US crude futures fall over $1 as traders weigh supply risks
U.S. crude futures fell more than $1 in early Asian trade on Tuesday as traders balanced heightened supply risks linked to a U.S. blockade of Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz with reports that Washington and Tehran were still open to talks after a tense meeting in Islamabad.
House eyes possible expulsion of multiple members as it returns to Washington
Both parties appear to be factoring in the razor-thin majority that Republicans hold in the chamber as they weigh whether to oust members.
'Really, really weird': Physicists entangle two moving atoms for the first time, validating 'spooky' quantum theory
For the first time, scientists have observed quantum entanglement in the momentum of massive particles. The result, decades in the making, could help physicists probe the relationship between quantum mechanics and gravity.
'My 600-Lb. Life' Star Dolly Martinez’s Cause of Death Revealed
The former reality star died at age 30 following years of weight-related health problems.
Hollywood heavyweights voice opposition to Paramount-Warner merger in letter
The deal is worth $111 billion
Huawei kicks off the wide foldable trend with Pura X Max ahead of iPhone, more
Huawei has shown off its next foldable, the Pura X Max, which has a super wide form factor we’re expecting...
New Huawei Foldable Looks a Lot Like Apple's Rumored iPhone Fold
Apple's upcoming foldable iPhone is expected to feature a book-style form factor that's relatively uncommon in the foldables market, but Huawei's new Pura X Max appears to share a similar wide aspect ratio. Set to be released in China next week, Huawei's new device actually builds upon a design used by the original, smaller Pura X, which was marketed last year as an extra-wide flip phone.
Leaker adds support for red iPhone 18 color rumor, in a slightly weird way
Bloomberg reported back in February that Apple was considering a new deep red color option for the iPhone 18 Pro,...
‘We Are Growing’: Fresh Designs Lift Raymond Weil
Elie Bernheim, the chief executive of Raymond Weil, has confidence in his “accessible luxury” business model.
The ‘Wild West’ of peptides is booming. Here’s what’s real, what’s risky and what’s next
In the early 2020s, interest in GLP-1 weight loss drugs exploded. Now, as we move deeper into the decade, a new buzzword is taking over: peptides.
The Science of Strength: New Study Casts Doubt on Training to Failure
New research shows going all out may limit strength gains. Here’s the smarter way to build strength and muscle
JAXA's 22-Year Bet on Frozen Comet Samples: What a Multi-Decade Mission Timeline Means for Planetary Science Funding
In the world of planetary science, a decade-long mission is considered ambitious. JAXA, Japan’s space agency, is now weighing something far more audacious: a sample return mission that wouldn’t deliver its cargo until the late 2040s, more than 22 years from the earliest planning stages. The proposed Next Generation Small-Body Return (NGSR) mission to comet […]
The foldable redesign we've been waiting to see from Samsung and Apple is already here
HUAWEI just beat Samsung and Apple to the wide fold party with the Pura X Max.
Scientists were wrong about lifespan. Your genes matter way more than we thought
For years, scientists believed our lifespan was mostly shaped by environment and chance, with genetics playing only a minor role. But a new study from the Weizmann Institute flips that idea on its head, revealing that genes may actually account for about half of the differences in how long people live. By analyzing massive twin datasets—including twins raised apart—and using innovative simulations to filter out deaths from accidents and other external causes, researchers uncovered a hidden genetic influence that had been masked for decades.
Health Issues Linked to Obesity Differ Between Men and Women
Women and men with obesity have different health issues, which should be taken into account when suggesting treatments or interventions.
Oppo officially reveals Find X9 Ultra days before global launch
The Oppo Find X9 Ultra is an upcoming flagship smartphone set to launch globally on April 21. The company's official Weibo account has revealed the device's design ahead of launch, showcasing it in three color options.
Fantastic MacBook Air with 24GB RAM at lowest ever price on Amazon right now in unmissable deal
This 15.3-inch model of the legendary lightweight laptop also comes with 512GB storage and a 2880x1864 Liquid Retina Display.
Doctors expose ‘buffalo hump’ as potential sign of hidden health conditions
A "buffalo hump" — a fatty bulge at the base of the neck — can sometimes signal underlying medical conditions, experts say. Causes range from poor posture to hormonal disorders.
Weekly Briefing: Israel is losing its grip on U.S. politics
Support for Israel is collapsing in U.S. politics. The Iran war has fractured the MAGA base, military aid has become a Democratic litmus test, and AIPAC is losing primaries.
They Thought This Priest Was Poisoned. When the CT Scan Came Back, the Truth Was So Much Weirder.
Uh, how did that happen?
Don't mess with Walt Weiss: Atlanta's new manager is a 'different breed'
Walt Weiss is making headlines in his first weeks as Atlanta's skipper.
Why Ozempic doesn’t work for everyone: Scientists just found a hidden reason
A new study reveals that popular diabetes and weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy may not work as effectively for about 10% of people due to specific genetic variants. These individuals appear to have a puzzling condition called “GLP-1 resistance,” where their bodies produce higher levels of the hormone targeted by these drugs—but don’t respond to it properly.
Analysis: Trump says he always wins, and the Iran war is the latest example
In an analysis of how Donald Trump treats almost every setback as a win and repeats it until many people doubt the loss, Associated Press writer Will Weissert cites the war with Iran as one of the latest examples.
At a mahjong table in Iowa, a struggle over which party to trust
Women courted in key races weigh their choices — and whether the president’s policies have delivered for a working-class town hit by tariffs, war and rising costs.
MacBook Neo punches above its weight in Windows 11 gaming test
YouTuber ETA Prime has tested Windows 11 on the MacBook Neo through a virtualization app called Parallels. With full 3D hardware acceleration, the Apple A18 Pro SoC smoothly ran some Windows games on it as well.
Atlanta Braves’ Walt Weiss Shares Spencer Strider Injury Update
Spencer Strider received an important update on Saturday.
RFK Jr. Once Touted Raw Milk. Now He’s Stopped Talking About It.
The health secretary has instead promoted whole milk, a politically safer choice, as he seeks to avoid “weird stuff.”
Fury dominates Makhmudov and calls out Joshua next
Tyson Fury marks his return to the heavyweight mix with a composed points win over Arslanbek Makhmudo, before immediately turning ringside to call out Anthony Joshua.
'iPhone Ultra' Will Solve Two Key Problems
Apple reportedly plans to unveil a foldable iPhone in September, and the device will supposedly solve two problems with foldable smartphones. In case you missed it, a leaker on Chinese social media platform Weibo recently claimed that the foldable iPhone will be named "iPhone Ultra". According to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, the device will have improved screen quality and overall durability compared to competing foldables.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Early weight gain is linked to lifelong health consequences
Putting on weight earlier in life may be more dangerous than previously thought. Researchers found that early adulthood obesity significantly raises the risk of premature death, especially from major diseases like heart disease and diabetes. The longer the body carries excess weight, the greater the damage appears to be. Interestingly, cancer risk in women didn’t follow this pattern, suggesting other biological factors are at play.
Early weight gain is linked to lifelong health consequences
Putting on weight earlier in life may be more dangerous than previously thought. Researchers found that early adulthood obesity significantly raises the risk of premature death, especially from major diseases like heart disease and diabetes. The longer the body carries excess weight, the greater the damage appears to be. Interestingly, cancer risk in women didn’t follow this pattern, suggesting other biological factors are at play.
Two simple eating habits linked to lower weight, study finds
A major study suggests that when you eat could play a key role in staying lean. People who fast longer overnight and start their day with an early breakfast were more likely to have a lower BMI years later. Scientists think this is because eating earlier aligns better with the body’s internal clock. But skipping breakfast as part of intermittent fasting didn’t offer the same advantage—and may even be tied to unhealthy habits.
This dreadful run that's weighing Mbappé down 🥶
The black cat?This Friday evening, Real Madrid were held to a 1-1 draw at home by Girona on matchday 31 of La Liga.If Barcelona win this Saturday, the Catalans would move nine points clear of Madrid a...
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg Final Face-Offs
The vacant light heavyweight title is on the line in the UFC 327 main event on Saturday. Former titleholder Jiri Prochazka faces No. 3 ranked Carlos Ulberg in the featured fight at Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. During Friday's UFC 327 Ceremonial Weigh-In, the athletes faced off ...
Local business owner weighs in as Louisiana blocks state minimum wage bill
For the latest session in a years-long debate, the Louisiana House Labor Committee has voted to kill a bill that would have established a $12 state minimum wage.
Personal trainer shocked to find health company using his photos
Sion documented his weight loss journey online and was shocked to find a company was using his photos.
SUNY professor examines Trump's executive order on birthright citizenship
As the Supreme Court weighs President Trump's executive order on birthright citizenship, a professor looks at the definition of the 14th Amendment.
What’s at stake as Michigan voters weigh constitutional convention question
Conservatives could try to repeal the state constitution's guarantee of the right to an abortion.
Have You Used A.I. Chatbots for Nutrition Advice?
Whether you’re looking to manage a health condition, lose weight or simply eat better, we want to hear from you.
A year later, L.A.B. Golf’s weird science got bigger … and more personal
L.A.B. Golf shakes up the putter game with zero-torque tech and wild customization—find one that fits your style and reshapes your game today!
Opinion | With straight faces, GOP accuses regents of playing politics
Dave Zweifel: Rothman obviously did something deeply unpopular. The vote to sack him was unanimous, and getting 17 people to agree on anything is pretty rare these days.
TSMC Has Enabled Smartphone SoCs To Approach 5GHz Frequencies Thanks To Advanced Lithography; Huawei The Biggest Loser In All Of This
With the exception of Huawei, every smartphone chipset manufacturer who chose TSMC is now able to reach a clock speed of 5.00GHz
Apple Apparently Still Undecided on iPhone 18 Pro Dynamic Island
Apple is weighing two options for the iPhone 18 Pro's Dynamic Island, and a final decision has yet to be made, according to the Weibo leaker known as Digital Chat Station.
Cardio vs. Strength: Cardiologist on Which Is Better for Heart Health
In TODAY.com's Expert Tip of the Day, a cardiologist weighs in on the best type of exercise routine for heart health and heart disease prevention.
Lawmakers connect with business owners to address issues weighing on them in GTP forum
Topeka business leaders brought business owners together with policymakers.
Orange Lutheran baseball defeats Gahr in walk-off at Boras Classic
CJ Weinstein delivers an RBI single in the eighth for Orange Lutheran in a 2-1 win over Gahr at the Boras Classic.
Hawaiʻi weighs shorter probation, lighter punishment for drugs
The proposed changes come after criminal justice stakeholders from across the state took an extensive look at the state’s penal code in a effort to address concerns and outdated practices
How Sisters in Public Health is changing who gets to lead
Angela Frazier had a vision. As a master’s student in public health, she looked around at the women in her program and saw something that troubled her. Talented, committed women were navigating a demanding field largely on their own, without mentors who looked like them, without spaces to process the weight of the work, and … Continue reading How Sisters in Public Health is changing who gets to lead
NYT report details divisions inside Trump’s inner circle as the president weighed striking Iran
NCAA weighs major eligibility change that could reshape college football and basketball
How the new NCAA proposal, if adopted, could impact NIL, transfers and European recruits
If you aren’t losing weight with GLP-1 drugs, this may be one reason why
Two genes involved in gut hormones that influence appetite and digestion may be a factor in how people respond to GLP-1 drugs, according to a new study.
Metro Detroit small businesses weigh in on economy
Confidence is falling among small-business owners, per a recent national survey.
Warburton 'knocking on door' for World title shot
Gerome Warburton stunned former British champion Nathan Heaney with an unanimous win to secure the WBA Continental Middleweight title in March.
What smart people are saying about Trump's ceasefire deal with Iran
Economists, foreign policy experts, and politicians weigh in on Donald Trump's last-minute ceasefire deal with Iran.