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Is Six Flags (FUN) Turning Ride Upgrades Into a Test of Its Per-Guest Value Strategy?
Six Flags New England recently held an exclusive press preview for Quantum Accelerator, New England’s first dual-launch straddle coaster, alongside broader upgrades to Crackaxle Canyon and park-wide dining and retail offerings. The combination of a headline coaster and enhanced food, beverage, and pass benefits highlights Six Flags’ focus on deepening guest engagement and extracting more value per visit. We’ll now look at how Quantum Accelerator’s debut and related guest-experience...
Louie Rabaut's Kentucky Derby 152 preview after three preps
It’s that time of year again: a chance to share my observations from what were three very different preps for Kentucky Derby 152.
Business Ins and Outs: Edwardo's closes; Great American Bagel Company, House of Garlic, MizFitz Pizza and Tossed & Found opening
Business Ins and Outs: Edwardo's closes; Great American Bagel Company, House of Garlic, MizFitz Pizza and Tossed & Found opening
Business Notes for April 19, 2026
The Gazette’s Business Notes is a compendium of the week’s promotions, new hires, certifications, added business lines and business events, among other items, in Cedar Rapids, Iowa City and the
Upper Valley spring sports preview: Softball
Oxbow It’s hard to have a conversation about Upper Valley softball without talking about the perennial juggernaut that is Oxbow High. The Olympians enter 2026 coming off yet another undefeated season at 18-0 and another VPA Division III state championship after defeating BFA-Fairfax 13-0. Oxbow has won the state title five years in a row. […]
Curing U.S. Health Care, Part I
In 2008, much to their own surprise, leading Democrats unified around a program of major health care reform. Policy wonks had spent years developing the concepts behind what eventually became Obamacare; big Democratic victories in the 2006 midterms and the prospect of controlling both Congress and the presidency made it possible to imagine turning those ideas into reality. During the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama advocated similar plans, based on those ideas, for expanding insurance coverage. And it happened! The Affordable Care Act was enacted in 2010. When it was fully implemented in 2014, millions of Americans got health insurance: Impressive as the raw numbers are, they don’t tell the whole story. Before the ACA, even upper-middle-class Americans often found it impossible to get health insurance if they had pre-existing medical conditions. Many Americans were trapped in jobs they wanted to leave but couldn’t for fear of losing their employment-based coverage. Meanwhile, dire predictions from the usual suspects about runaway costs proved wrong. In fact, overall U.S. medical spending has grown much more slowly since the ACA was enacted than before. But the U.S., alone among advanced nations, still falls far short of providing universal health care. As you can see from the chart above, 8 percent of the population was still uninsured in 2024, a number that is set to rise over the next two years as a result of Republican policies. True, many of the uninsured in 2024 were undocumented immigrants, who we don’t try to cover. But there are still a lot of uninsured. Moreover, a significant number of Americans who have health insurance are in fact underinsured. As a result, they are at risk of incurring devastating healthcare costs and are sometimes forced to forgo needed care. This number is set to rise sharply in the next two years as a result of Republican policies adopted under Donald Trump. And not only is the U.S. unique among advanced countries in its under-provision of health care coverage, it also incurs by far the world’s highest healthcare costs per capita. So now may well be a good time to get behind a new push for major health reform — an effort, if you like, to finish the job begun under Obama. Today’s primer is devoted to the economics of health reform. During his failed effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act, Donald Trump famously complained, “Nobody knew healthcare could be so complicated.” Actually, we did know — and it’s not that complicated. Health economists understand the principles very well. And because health policy varies greatly among advanced nations, we know a lot about what works and what doesn’t. This will be the first in a series about health reform. Beyond the paywall I’ll address the following: 1. Why markets can’t be trusted to deliver healthcare 2. Routes to universal healthcare 3. What works? In a follow-up post I’ll discuss the pros and cons of different approaches, and possible paths forward for the United States.
What is National Scam Survivors Day?
BBB established National Scam Survivor Day on the second Thursday in May each year to recognize the brave people who report their experiences to benefit others and help identify and stop scammers.
Antwerp dementia researcher wins major science prize in US
Rosa Rademakers, a scientist at VIB and University of Antwerp, has been awarded the prestigious Breakthrough Prize in Los Angeles for her work on...
Team News: Eight Liverpool stars set to miss Everton clash
Liverpool vs Everton Team News: Merseyside Derby PreviewThe Merseyside derby rarely needs extra context, but this latest chapter arrives with plenty riding on it for both Liverpool and Everton. With E...
Live Nation Entertainment’s Quarterly Earnings Preview: What You Need to Know
Live Nation Entertainment is poised to report its FY2026 first-quarter earnings in the coming weeks, and analysts are forecasting a narrowing of losses.
Hellas Verona vs AC Milan – Match preview and team news
AC Milan go head-to-head against Hellas Verona in a Serie A match on Sunday in a Matchday 33 clash.AC Milan currently sits in third position in the league with 63 points, just five points above fifth ...
People in Business: Origin names; Roeslein celebrates; Advantage promotes; SLU launches
Catch up on local business appointments, awards and promotions.
Sunday Preview – Yarrick returns to Armageddon
See what’s coming up for pre-order next week!
Why Owen Heinecke's return is 'a great benefit,' according to OU coach Brent Venables, teammates
OU head coach Brent Venables and teammates shared their excitement to have redshirt senior linebacker Owen Heinecke returning following a Cleveland County judge’s decision to grant him an injunction for
Business notes: Milton-Freewater’s Drive-In theater reopens for the season
Spring is here. And with that comes outdoor movies at the M-F Drive-In.
Weekly round-up: Entertainment district updates, NPS Board of Education walkout, Heinecke lawsuit
I’m Audrey McClour, a news editor for OU Daily.
Virginia Tech football: Previewing the 2026 spring game
Today is the day for Virginia Tech’s annual spring game, but this one feels much different.
AS Roma vs Atalanta – Match preview and team news
AS Roma face Atalanta in matchday 33 of the Serie A on Saturday night at the Stadio Olimpico.Both teams are fighting for European spots next season as AS Roma sits at sixth in the table with 57 points...
Chelsea vs Manchester United – Match preview and team news
Chelsea enter “must-win” territory on Saturday night as they host Manchester United in West London.Liam Rosenior’s side have lost three consecutive Premier League matches and desperately need to...
Newcastle United vs Bournemouth – Match preview and team news
The spotlight shines on Andoni Iraola today as he leads Bournemouth to Newcastle United following his announced departure.The Cherries contest their first match since confirmation that Iraola will lea...
ESPN previews Texas A&M's 2026 Maroon & White Game
Ahead of Saturday's Maroon & White Game, ESPN provided its own preview of Texas A&M's final spring practice before fall practice in August.
Women’s World Cup Qualifiers Preview: Austria vs. Germany
Germany hope to maintain their perfect record in the 2027 Women’s World Cup qualifiers when they face Austria at BWT X Upper Austrian Arena on Saturday. Christian Wück’s side were victorious in t...
Mayor Wamp reassures ‘smooth transition’ for relocation of business incubator
The announcement was met with pushback and concerns from other commissioners and the current tenant of the Business Development Center.
ABC7 Sports Overtime with Dionne Miller: April 17, 2026
On the latest ABC7 Sports Overtime, Dionne Miller discussed the rough start to the season for the Chicago Cubs and White Sox, a Bears NFL Draft preview, big changes for the Bulls and Sky, and the Blackhawks' season ending.
From The Sports Desk: NBA playoff preview
The NBC News sports team breaks down the first-round matchups.
Previewing the 2026 NC legislative session
ABC11's Sean Coffey and N&O politics reporter Luciana Perez Uribe Guinassi talk about what to look for in the upcoming session of the North Carolina General Assembly.
Kathy's #Mailbag, April 17, 2026
From restaurants to railroad crossings to radio, it's another busy week at Mailbag Central.
On The Horizon: Cubs vs. Mets series preview
The Cubs welcome a team from the NL East to Wrigley Field.
Washington’s Scramble to Get Mythos, Anthropic’s Powerful New Model
Federal agencies have requested access to Claude Mythos Preview, which Anthropic says can rapidly identify — and potentially create — new cyberthreats.
Friday’s Everton News: Derby preview, Leicester winger Fatawu linked
Recapping all the Everton news from yesterday
Here’s everything new in Android 17 Beta 4 [Gallery]
Google today rolled out Android 17 Beta 4 for Pixel devices to continue the preview cycle. This is the last...
Lehigh Sports Central: Men's Tennis
On the latest episode of Lehigh Sports Central, men's tennis senior Jackson Morash and 5th year Sean Jaeger preview this Saturday's Senior Day matchup agains...
Bill to give Louisiana Legislature more power to remove elected officials draws controversy
The bill’s sponsor said it would open another way to remove officials for wrongdoing. Critics said it could become a partisan weapon.
Netflix Q1 earnings preview: Analysts bullish on price hikes, ads
Netflix is getting back to basics after bowing out of the bidding war for Warner Bros. and is looking to expand its ad tier.
'Spaceballs' sequel, 'Thomas Crown Affair' previewed at CinemaCon, but no Bond updates
The cast and filmmakers behind the “Spaceballs” sequel, including Bill Pullman and Rick Moranis, brought humor to CinemaCon in Las Vegas | WBBM Newsradio 780 AM & 105.9 FM
'Spaceballs' sequel, 'Thomas Crown Affair' previewed at CinemaCon, but no Bond updates
The cast and filmmakers behind the “Spaceballs” sequel, including Bill Pullman and Rick Moranis, brought humor to CinemaCon in Las Vegas | KNSS Radio
Mariners Game #19 Preview and Discussion: SEA at SDP
Emerson Hancock takes the ball for the Mariners on Jackie Robinson Day
Christopher Nolan brings ‘The Odyssey’ to CinemaCon; Steven Spielberg previews 'Disclosure Day'
Christopher Nolan has given theater owners a thrilling glimpse of “The Odyssey” at CinemaCon in Las Vegas | WBBM Newsradio 780 AM & 105.9 FM
'Show me the money'
What happens when a former senator, a prior governor, a previous representative, and a political advocate talk about corporate money in politics? The exact scenario played out at the MSU-hosted discussion titled “Money, Transparent Elections and the Montana Experience,” at the end of last week. Audience members experienced a bipartisan glimpse into corporate influence, how it is built, spent on campaigns and challenged by voters. A candid conversation emerged between guest speakers former Montana U.S. Senator Jon Tester, former Attorney General and Governor Marc Racicot, previous state senator and representative Jeff Mangan, and political advocate Michel Beckel. The conversation between the four guests circled back to Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, a landmark 2010 Supreme Court ruling allowing corporations, unions, and associations to spend unlimited amounts of money influencing elections. The decision concluded independent political spending is a form of free speech protected by the First Amendment, directly leading to the rise of massive political action committees and ‘dark money’ in U.S. elections spending. Tester was the first to address the ‘black elephant’ in the room. Responses to moderator questions are edited for clarity and brevity. “We are seeing unbelievable sums of money being put out trying to influence people on how to vote,” Tester said. “Oftentimes the truth goes out the window before the campaigning even starts.”
Preview: UFC Winnipeg Prelims
The UFC Winnipeg undercard features several debuting Canadian prospects—and the Octagon return of one well-remembered heavyweight character.
Previewing Jaguars' tight end position ahead of 2026 NFL draft
With the 2026 NFL draft near, we will be taking a position-by-position look at where things stand with the Jaguars. Up next are the tight ends.
Cannabis stores on State Street face a hazy future
Stores selling hemp-derived THC products have proliferated, especially on State Street. A change in federal legislation means their future is uncertain.
Cavaliers vs. Raptors injury report and preview entering NBA playoffs
Injury news will be worth watching as the Cleveland Cavaliers and Toronto Raptors meet in the first round of the NBA playoffs.
Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid – Match preview and team news
Bayern Munich faces Real Madrid at their home turf on Wednesday night in a Champions League quarter-final second leg.Vincent Kompany’s men head into this match with a one-goal advantage from the fir...
'It's been so stressful': Bend restaurant loses 90% of business after Shilo Inn closure
"IT'S BEEN SO STRESSFUL": A Bend restaurant says business dropped 90% after the Shilo Inn closed next door, and many people don’t realize it’s still open. The owner is asking the community to stop by and show support.
UW Football Spring Preview: Running Backs
Who’s Gone Jonah Coleman has been the keystone of the UW running back room for the last two seasons. While nagging injuries prevented him from consistently hitting fifth gear, he still rushed for 1811 yards (5.2 yards per carry) and 25 TDs over his two years in Seattle. He also proved himself an adept pass-catcher, […]
Air Canada to debut luxe new cabins and business class seats
Air Canada previewed a stunning new business class seat for its Airbus A321XLR and Boeing 787-10, along with refreshed coach and premium economy cabins.
Boone Health, Missouri Heart Center progress toward split
Boone Health withdrew its request for a temporary restraining order against its contracted private cardiology provider.
Mets-Dodgers Preview
Baseball's best team will encounter one of the game's hottest young pitchers when the Los Angeles Dodgers face a test from New York Mets right-hander Nolan McLean on Tuesday.
Google previews I/O 2026 sessions: What’s new in Android, AI, more
With I/O 2026 a month away, Google has posted the initial sessions list. The developer conference runs from May 19-20.
Ultimate science trip
Thirteen juniors and seniors, led by three Westminster Christian Academy science teachers, spent their spring break exploring Quito, Ecuador and the Galápagos Islands. The trip was an unforgettable hands-on journey
Game Preview: Pittsburgh Penguins @ St. Louis Blues, 4/14/2026
Who: Pittsburgh Penguins (41-24-16, 98 points, 2nd place Metropolitan Division) @ St. Louis Blues (36-33-12, 82 points, 7th place Central Division) When: 9:30 p.m. ET How to Watch: Local on TVAS and SN-PIT, national on ESPN Pens’ Path Ahead: The Philadelphia Flyers officially clinched a first-round matchup with the Pens with a shootout victory over the Carolina Hurricanes on […]
Final tour for Alabama stops in Cedar Rapids
Alabama, a band that marries country with Southern rock, was among the most successful acts of the '80s. Known for hits like "Tennessee River," they will perform on Sunday at the Alliant Energy PowerHouse.
‘The Outsiders,’ ‘Hell’s Kitchen’ and ‘SIX’ on Overture’s new season
Madison’s downtown arts center announces the 2026-27 Broadway lineup, also featuring “Maybe Happy Ending,” “Jersey Boys” and “The Wiz.”
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona – Match preview and team news
Atletico Madrid is gearing up for their Champions League quarter-final second leg as they welcome Barcelona to the Riyadh Air Metropolitano on Tuesday.Diego Simeone’s men head into this match with a...
Quarterback John Mateer, OU offense experiencing 'super productive' offseason
The OU offense has had sharp development throughout the offseason, according to redshirt junior quarterback John Mateer, between his individual throwing mechanics, the team’s communication and rushing improvement.
Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona, Champions League: Preview
Barça travel to the capital looking to overturn a two-goal deficit and book a spot in the semis
Mark your calendars: Weekly sports schedule for April 14-19
Take a look through the weekly sports schedule for the Central Coast. Read our coverage online or in print.
New Missouri health care hub aims to better integrate primary, behavioral care
Two Missouri healthcare organizations have collaborated to create a new healthcare center in Jefferson City.
Alice Cooper returns to Eastern Iowa
The Godfather of Shock Rock performs April 18 at Alliant Energy PowerHouse in Cedar Rapids.
PREVIEW: Liverpool hoping for special display to overturn PSG
Liverpool will welcome Paris Saint-Germain to Anfield tomorrow night as they look to overturn a 2-0 deficit from the first leg in the French capital last week.Should the Reds fail to advance to the ne...
‘Lady Disdain’ world premiere rides sparkling into Overture
Madison company Forward Theater presents Lauren Gunderson’s bawdy enemies-to-lovers adaptation of “Much Ado About Nothing” through April 26.
Manchester United vs Leeds – Match preview and team news
Manchester United host Leeds United on Monday night to conclude the Premier League action of the matchweek.The Red Devils have enjoyed a remarkable transformation under Michael Carrick since January. ...
Ska Brewing sale breathes new life into 30-year-old business
Ska Brewing Co. in Durango has survived more than 30 years of shifting economic landscapes, a pandemic, a multiyear decline for craft breweries on the whole and a recent change of ownership after deca...
Masters hole of the day: The Eisenhower tree is long gone, but No. 17 plays toughest of all
The hole of the day Sunday during the final round of the Masters tournament:
Minnesota politics: Previewing governor's race, Iran war impact | FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul
Political analyst Blois Olson takes a look ahead to what could be the most expensive legislative race in Minnesota history. He also examines how the war in Iran could impact voting choices in rural areas.
Lakers vs. Jazz Preview: Final Contest of the Regular Season
Here's your Lakers preview for Game 82
Previewing the 2026 season for Penn State TE Brian Kortovich
Brian Kortovich is a young, talented tight end looking to carve out a role in Penn State’s new-look tight end room.
Minnesota politics: Previewing governor's race and Iran war impact | FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul
Political analyst Blois Olson takes a look ahead to what could be the most expensive legislative race in Minnesota history. He also examines how the war in Iran could impact voting choices in rural areas.
“I stopped digging through folders”: How OmniSearch changed the way I find files on Windows 11
OmniSearch blends instant results, previews, and cleanup tools into one powerful search experience.
Tips on how to handle politics in the workplace in Iowa
The bottom line: Iowa’s private employers have wide latitude to regulate political activity at work.
Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur – Match preview and team news
Roberto De Zerbi makes his Premier League return as Tottenham Hotspur visit Sunderland at the Stadium of Light today.The Italian manager replaces Igor Tudor after a dismal run left Spurs one point abo...
New clinic brings at-home health care to La Plata, San Juan counties
HERMOSA – The practice of a doctor traveling to a patient’s home to deliver care – as opposed to the patient traveling to a medical campus or visiting a doctor in an office – is largely bygone. Accord...
Business Bulletin: Hearthstone wins; Jackie Joyner-Kersee benefits; Capes Sokol celebrates
Catch up on local business awards, certifications, and expansions.
2026 NFL draft preview: Linebacker prospects and the Arizona Cardinals
Jess Root and Seth Cox talk about linebacker prospects to know for the Arizona Cardinals in the 2026 NFL draft.
Mid-Missouri event offers free health services, brake light repairs and meals
Tallgrass Collective hosted a free clinic offering health services, vehicle brake light repairs, food and clothes Saturday from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
US negotiators leaving without a peace deal with Iran
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Game Preview: Washington Capitals @ Pittsburgh Penguins, 4/11/2026
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People in Business for April 11, 2026
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In praise of popular science
As a kid, I was enthusiastically and unreservedly in favor of a manned space program. Our destiny lay in the stars, I figured. Get people out there. We need Star Trek here and now. As I got older, I became rather disenchanted with the idea. Humans are expensive, fragile, and inefficient as space cargo. We could flood the solar system with 100 robotic probes for the price of any single manned mission and get back just as useful data. Besides, it turns out space travel is dangerous. Tusk is a reader-supported publication. To support this work, please become a paid subscriber. Subscribe When it came to the recent Artemis II mission, my cynical side didn’t really see the point. Flying around the Moon and back is literally something we did before I was born, and I once owned a Members Only jacket. Apollo 8 circled the Moon ten times and returned to Earth safely the same month that “Chitty Chitty Bang Bang” was released. What was the point of repeating a feat that far braver people once did with tin foil and slide rules? Yet I’ve surprised myself with how moving I’ve found the Artemis II mission to be. The photos have been stunning. The crew has been professional and engaging. There have been modest but important milestones — the farthest humans have travelled from Earth; the first woman, person of color, and non-American to leave low-Earth orbit; innovations in communication, and more. One thing that really stood out is that this is really NASA at its finest. Not that this is the most important mission they ever pulled off, but they did this in a competent way that celebrated the achievements and kept the crew and the science at the forefront of the project. This wasn’t some billionaire throwing celebrities or cars into orbit as a vanity project — this was a collective effort to send experts in to do a job and come home safely. We don’t see that sort of thing much these days. I’m guessing few people would describe many government agencies as inspiring, but this one counts for me. We’re living through a profoundly anti-science era, in which pathbreaking, lifesaving discoveries like mRNA vaccines are routinely downplayed or even vilified. As I’ve noted previously, this era is something like that of the Red Scare in the 1940s and 50s, in which “egghead” professors were portrayed as out of touch or even hostile to regular Americans. One of the things that helped break that spell was Sputnik — the Soviet communications satellite that demonstrated that the United States was falling behind in crucial scientific research and applications. Its launch triggered a new appreciation for American science and goaded the federal government into supporting research universities and labs. I’m not saying that Artemis is the equivalent of Sputnik, but it potentially reminds people that there’s some value to scientific endeavors and the human faces attached to them. Despite my love for the show “For All Mankind,” I’m far from convinced that there’s any real value to putting colonies on the Moon or Mars that would justify the capital investment and the massive health risks to the astronauts. But sending scientific good will ambassadors on a trip into space once in a while? Bring it. Share
America’s Car-Mart in Kirksville abruptly closes after 13 years in business
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NMSU political science students present at national research conference
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NMSU political science students present at national research conference
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Starting a Business
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Gov. Landry wants Hondo Rodeo to be annual visitor to New Orleans
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