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Kettering Health Sees Increased Credit Rating from Moody’s Reports
Moody’s Ratings has upgraded Kettering Health’s credit rating to “A1,” placing the system in the upper tier of Moody's rating scale.
Business Case Team earned first place
Brookdale’s Business Club is celebrating a major victory after its Business Case Team earned first place at the statewide Business Case Competition hosted by Rutgers Business School in Newark on April 10, 2026. Competing against
Google AI Mode getting deep Chrome integration on desktop, mobile
Like the Gemini app before, Google is now deeply integrating AI Mode with desktop and mobile Chrome. On the New Tab Page...
What Rochester's small business owners miss by separating strategy, wealth
Commentary: Nicole Newman highlights how small business owners in Rochester often separate business strategy from wealth planning, limiting long-term financial flexibility.
Da Vinci Science Center gains NASA grant to celebrate moon mission with Lehigh Valley youth
The Da Vinci Science Center is celebrating America’s return to the moon with a Saturday event and after-school outreach programs funded through a NASA grant.
UC Health reaches milestone with 10,000 robotic surgeries: ‘Incredibly proud’
UC Health has achieved a major milestone, completing 10,000 robotic surgeries that are transforming operating rooms with advanced technology.
Two Americans sentenced to prison for North Korean tech worker scheme
Two Americans have been sentenced to years in prison for their roles in a covert scheme that defrauded major US companies while generating $5 million for the North Korean regime, the Justice Department said Wednesday.
Knoxville couple claim scammer used their business name to pose as repairman
KNOXVILLE, Tenn. (WATE) — A Knoxville couple who operate an appliance repair business says their company name is being used by a scammer. The couple says the scammer has been operating for more tha…
Attica Lumber celebrates a century of business
By Brianna Smith What started in 1925 with R.F. Cook’s passion for lumber and buildings has grown into a fourth-generation family business celebrating 100 years of service in Attica. Founded in the years following World War I, Attica Lumber has remained rooted in the same principles through ge
The Miami-Dade businesses that lost their licenses over alleged illegal trade with Cuba
Miami-Dade County Tax Collector Dariel Fernández announced new enforcement actions that include revoking business licenses for several companies accused of operating in violation of federal regulations related to Cuba.
Chad J. Thompson
Chad J. Thompson has joined Nicolaides Fink Thorpe Michaelides Sullivan LLP as chief operating officer.
Health of US democracy in decline, based on multiple evaluations
Most Americans say democracy in the United States used to be a good example for other countries to follow but has not been in recent years.
New Willmar entertainment venue teaming up with Rendezvous Axe Throwing
(Willmar MN-) Shining Light Entertainment at The Uptown Willmar Mall is getting closer to opening. Co-Owner Jason Miller says in addition to laser tag and mini-golf, they will be teaming up with Rendezvous Axe Throwing......Victoria Hibma of Rendezvous Axe Throwing says their location on West Litchfield Avenue is now closed and the building, which also houses an operating laundry mat, is for sale. They are in the process of moving their throwing lanes and kitchen equipment to the Shining Light location, across from Golden Ticket Cinema, in the former Chen Garden Restaurant space. Shining Light had hoped to open this past winter, but Miller now hopes to be in operation in less than 2 months......
Ohio regulators seek to fine Kalshi $5M for unlicensed sports gambling
COLUMBUS — Online prediction market platform Kalshi is facing a $5 million fine for operating an unlicensed sports gambling business in Ohio. The Ohio ...
Air Canada Begins Operating Panasonic’s Astrova Entertainment System
Panasonic Avionics announced at the Aircraft Interiors Expo (AIX) that Air Canada has begun running its Astrova IFEC system on one of its Airbus A321s.
Osara Health Publishes New Peer-Reviewed Study Demonstrating Clinically Meaningful Improvements in Physical and Mental Health for People With Cancer
/PRNewswire/ -- Osara Health, a global digital health company focused on the human experience of cancer care, today announced a new peer-reviewed study showing...
Sabres’ playoff return has business of hockey booming in Buffalo again
The Sabres' attendance, TV ratings and merchandise sales have surged with Buffalo's first playoff team since 2011.
Mid-Michigan Matters: Celebrating science and improving scientific literacy
Throughout April, Michigan State University will be holding its Science Festival.
Saks Sells Business Jet as Luxury Retailer Shrinks in Bankruptcy
Saks Global Enterprises won court approval to sell its Gulfstream jet that executives used for business and personal travel, as the bankrupt luxury retailer slashes debt and operating expenses.
Jon Prosser Still Not Fully Cooperating in Apple's iOS 26 Trade Secrets Lawsuit
A joint status report filed yesterday in Apple's trade secrets lawsuit against YouTuber Jon Prosser and Michael Ramacciotti shows Prosser is still failing to comply with discovery, prompting Apple to seek a court order to compel him. The latest filing, submitted to the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California yesterday, covers developments since the parties' last update in February 2026.
Pelin Deniz and Lina Jean Fritz
Pelin Deniz joins NLEN as Chief Operating Officer and Lina Jean Fritz joins as Chief of Strategy, Innovation & External Affairs.
The Business of Resilience
Discover how resilience means building forward, not bouncing back. Explore JEFRË's monumental art and why celebrating living artists matters.
County Health Day 2026: County Participation Toolkit
Please join the National Association of Counties (NACo) in celebrating County Health Day on Friday, April 17.
Hightower names Roberto Stewart as president and chief business officer
The veteran operating executive joins from Engle Martin and will lead Hightower One, the mega-RIA's back- and middle-office platform, just as the firm deepens its push in the Signature Wealth channel.
Entertainment Host & Lifestyle Expert Josh McBride Launches New Podcast "The McBride Rewind" Featuring Iconic Voices of the 2000s/Late 1990s
Television host and entertainment personality Josh McBride is officially stepping into the podcast space with the debut of The McBride Rewind, a nostalgic, interview-style show celebrating the icons, culture, and unforgettable moments of the early 2000s.
Citizens reiterates Caesars Entertainment stock rating on EBITDAR outlook
Citizens reiterates Caesars Entertainment stock rating on EBITDAR outlook
Businesses look back at a week fueled by Merrie Monarch rush
With thousands flying into Hawaii Island, it’s a crucial sales week for local businesses, but many are navigating steep prices and high operating costs.
Animal Crossing: New Horizons Has Been Updated To Version 3.0.2, Here Are The Full Patch Notes
Celebrating 25 years with a special item...
A Look At Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Valuation After Its Mixed Earnings-Driven Share Price Move
Caesars Entertainment (CZR) is back in focus after its latest earnings report, where revenue topped analyst forecasts while adjusted operating income and EPS came in below expectations, yet the share price moved higher. See our latest analysis for Caesars Entertainment. The latest move higher in Caesars Entertainment's share price comes after its earnings release, with the stock showing a 13.54% year to date share price return while the 5 year total shareholder return is still down 69.86%...
What Happens in California Governor’s Race After Eric Swalwell Stepped Down?
For Democrats, the drama is reverberating well beyond the state.
Online Sports Betting Is Fueling Financial Risk in Florida
Experts warn that permissive policies and app-based betting are accelerating addiction, especially among young men.
Thaddeus Stevens College to launch online small business management program
Thaddeus Stevens College of Technology prides itself on integrating its students into central Pennsylvania trade and technical programs, to the point that many are working for local businesses before they
Resources for Educators: Ways to Incorporate Outdoor Science Education | College of Education News
Five Tips for Incorporating Outdoor Science Lessons
Gov. DeSantis is celebrating an Everglades restoration milestone ahead of schedule
'Together, we've taken on one of the most ambitious ecosystem restoration efforts in the world, and we've agreed to do it faster.'
Insurers Stand to Gain Big Business From Data Centers
That's how much S&P Global Ratings estimates data centers could pay in insurance premiums this year. That number compares to $5 billion a year for the entire aviation sector, the ratings firm said in a report Monday. The firm estimates the total insurable amount of data-center assets at $2 trillion
Colorado leaders warn of a "deteriorating" business climate
The ad-hoc organization, Ensuring Colorado's Innovation Future, cites Palantir's relocation as a major concern.
Careful, huge spoilers are out for James Bond game 007: First Light, following an Indonesian Game Rating leak
IO Interactive's 007: First Light spoilers have surfaced online alongside other upcoming video game leaks.
Smart Adhesive Is Key to Crease-Free Foldable iPhone Display
Advances in optically clear adhesive (OCA) will be a key factor in achieving a near-invisible crease in Apple's first foldable iPhone expected later this year, according to TrendForce. The supply chain intelligence firm outlined the key technologies in a new report on foldable display innovation, explaining that creases form when layers within the display panel fall out of alignment, concentrating stress at the fold and causing micro-cracks or permanent deformation over time.
Student view: Celebrating learning as much as winning
Navya Bhardwaj will graduate on May 3 with a bachelor’s degree in computer science and engineering and minors in data science, and computational mathematics, science and engineering. She is president of MSU Women in Computing and served as co-director of SpartaHack.
AIFF to offer 40 film programs, four days of entertainment
Ashland-born filmmaker to screen debut feature film ‘A Simple Machine’ Celebrating its 25th anniversary, the Ashland Independent Film Festival is set to return in late April, bringing in acclaimed filmmakers […]
Archer teams with ‘Mandalorian and Grogu’ for first entertainment deal
As the meat snacks marketer expands, it is collaborating with the “Star Wars” universe for a campaign spanning retail, digital, social and out-of-home.
Bernier Insurance Agency to Host Greater Rochester Chamber of Commerce April Business After Hours
The Greater Rochester Chamber of Commerce is pleased to announce that Bernier Insurance Agency will host a Business After Hours event on Wednesday, April 15, 2026, from 5:30 to 7:00 PM. The event will take place at Bernier Insurance Agency, located at 32 Wakefield Street in Rochester. Celebrating its 45th year in downtown Rochester, Bernier...
Seth Cohen on Accelerating AI Adoption for Lasting Business Impact
P&G’s Chief Information Officer Seth Cohen took the stage at Human[X] to share how companies can leverage AI to drive real, measurable impact across their business.
Making light spin with a gold nanorod
Controlling photon spin, or the handedness of light, is useful for storing and transmitting information. However, generating circularly polarized light typically requires complex or chiral structures. Researchers from the Tokyo University of Science show that hitting a gold nanorod slightly off-center with an electron beam causes the light around it to rotate. This method offers a simpler way to control photon spin and could accelerate the development of smaller, more efficient optical and quantum devices.
Mamdani Embraces Socialist ‘Pothole Politics’ in Knockdown Center Barn Burner
The mayor marked his first 100 days on the job in an event aimed at celebrating city workers while extending the energy of his successful campaign — with a surprise appearance by Sen. Benie Sanders.
Who Had “New OS For The Z80” On Their 2026 Bingo Card?
Some might say the venerable Z80 doesn’t need another operating system, but [Scott Baker] obviously disagrees. He has come up with a brand new, from scratch OS called NostOS for the Z80-based…
Winners of the 2026 Olivier Awards celebrating work on the London stage
The Olivier Awards have recognized top achievements in London theater, opera, and dance for 2026." | Newsradio 1140 WRVA
Winners of the 2026 Olivier Awards celebrating work on the London stage
The Olivier Awards have recognized top achievements in London theater, opera, and dance for 2026." | WWJ Newsradio 950
Winners of the 2026 Olivier Awards celebrating work on the London stage
The Olivier Awards have recognized top achievements in London theater, opera, and dance for 2026." | KNSS Radio
Winners of the 2026 Olivier Awards celebrating work on the London stage
The Olivier Awards have recognized top achievements in London theater, opera, and dance for 2026." | Talk Radio 1210 WPHT
Winners of the 2026 Olivier Awards celebrating work on the London stage
The Olivier Awards have recognized top achievements in London theater, opera, and dance for 2026." | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
Winners of the 2026 Olivier Awards celebrating work on the London stage
The Olivier Awards have recognized top achievements in London theater, opera, and dance for 2026." | WWL
Winners of the 2026 Olivier Awards Celebrating Work on the London Stage
LONDON (AP) — The winners of the 2026 Olivier Awards handed out Sunday for achievement in London theater, opera and dance: New Musical: “Paddington The Musical” New Play: “Punch” New Entertainment or Comedy: “Oh, Mary!” Family Show: “The Boy at the Back of the Class” Revival: “All My Sons” Musical ...
CVS Health Corporation (CVS): Legal Clarity and Core Strengths Support the Bull Case
CVS Health Corporation (NYSE:CVS) is one of the undervalued large cap stocks to buy. On March 25, UBS analyst Kevin Caliendo reiterated a Buy rating and $97 price target on CVS Health Corporation (NYSE:CVS). Caliendo said that CVS’s proposed settlement with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) over insulin pricing could lift a major cloud that […]
Munson celebrates student accomplishments with exhibits
UTICA — Join Munson in celebrating the artistic accomplishments of their students at Pratt Munson College of Art and Design. Their work will be featured in two juried, mixed media
This Is The Best Tablet You Can Buy In 2026, According To Amazon User Reviews
Apple's 11th-generation 11-inch iPad on Amazon has a 4.7-star rating with over 21,322 reviews, making it one of the best-rated tablets on the site.
Arsenal Ratings vs. Bournemouth: Gabriel Martinelli, Kai Havertz Drop Stinkers
Arsenal was second best all over the pitch on a dismal afternoon, who missed out on the opportunity to open up a 12 point gap over rivals Manchester City.
To the editor: Target Chicago to draw new business
With the sheer number of economic development agencies and organizations operating in our region, why aren’t we aggressively targeting businesses in the ...
UBS Raises Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc. (WOOF) Target Amid Growth Strategy
Petco Health & Wellness Co. Inc. (NASDAQ:WOOF) is one of the best cheap penny stocks to buy that aren’t scams. On March 16, UBS raised its price target on Petco Health & Wellness Co. Inc. (NASDAQ:WOOF) to $4.00 from $3.50, while keeping a Neutral rating. The positive stance underscores the research firm’s confidence about the […]
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
Seniors: John Lemp, 70
Has been working for more than 50 years in the business — M. Lemp Jewelers in Syracuse — that his great-grandfather started in 1890 By Mary Beth Roach Don Lemp owns and represents the fourth-generation of the family business, M. Lemp Jewelers, but he still calls himself “a counter guy.” “I love interacting with couples. It’s a wonderful business. You’re celebrating marriages, engagements, births, anniversaries — all these different significant moments that people invite you into their lives for whatever brief period of time it might be to help them celebrate whatever their important occasion is,” he said. This is one of several reasons why Lemp, at 70, has been working for more than 50 years in the business that his great-grandfather started in 1890. Always located in the downtown Syracuse area, the store has been situated in the building that the family owns on East Fayette and Warren streets since 1971. He jokes that he’s been in the business so long he is now selling engagement rings to the second generation in some families. He also loves the opportunity to learn about the ever-changing industry and gemstones. “You have to know not only diamonds, but all the colored stones, from A to Z, from andalusite to zircons,” he said. Lemp said he had originally thought he wanted to become an attorney, but while working part-time in the store while attending college at Syracuse University, he decided to follow in the family business. His father, Walter D. Lemp Sr., and his mother tried to discourage their son from pursuing retail, reminding him of the hectic hours and lifestyle intrinsic in this business. But the younger Lemp [whose full name is Walter D. Lemp Jr.] prevailed. So, over the years, father and son got to work together in the family business for 35 years. And while many other jewelers retreated from downtown to suburban malls in the 1970s, the Lemps decided to stay downtown. And it’s a decision that Lemp Jr. feels it has worked out well. As he explained, downtown Syracuse is seeing a rebirth. One website, Point2Home.com, has noted that more than 6,000 people live there and the median income is about $62,000. In addition, according to the website that Lemp built years ago, the store can cater to customers throughout the country. His customers, whether from across the country or across Onondaga County, are just one reason that Lemp stays engaged in the business. His employees, the opportunity to continue to learn in an industry, and the challenge to continue to improve business are all other reasons, he noted. He’s also been able to travel to India to buy diamonds and he enjoys buying and selling estates. “I’d rather gallop in the corral than ride into the sunset,” Lemp said.
Seniors: Carol Watson, 72
Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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