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Ohio Judge Temporarily Pauses Hemp Product Ban For Two Businesses
“The judge here is concerned about retailers that have made big investments in inventory, and they can’t move it, they can’t transport it, they can’t sell it.” By Megan Henry, Ohio Capital Journal A Franklin County judge granted a temporary restraining order (TRO) to allow two smoke shops to sell off their products less than […]
Trump envoy faces 'sweeping' investigation over business ties, diplomatic role
Democratic U.S. Representative Jamie Raskin launched what he described as a "sweeping" investigation into U.S. President Donald Trump's envoy and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, over a potential conflict of interest, according to an April 17 press release. The inquiry focuses on Kushner's dual role as a diplomatic intermediary and head of a private equity firm, raising questions about whether his financial ties could influence U.S. foreign policy decisions. Kushner has played a central role in Trum
Inside the Shapiro administration’s ‘absolutely ambitious’ plan to prevent maternal deaths in Pennsylvania
Spotlight PA is an independent, nonpartisan, and nonprofit newsroom producing investigative and public-service journalism that holds power to account and...
Knicks begin championship-or-bust playoff run vs. upstart Hawks
The New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks each were Cinderella stories the last time they opposed each other in the NBA playoffs.
Deep South Equipment finds natural fit in Lafayette
It’s easy to find Deep South Equipment’s Lafayette location; just look for the gorilla. The Louisiana-based equipment dealer and service provider opened at 122 Southpark Road in late 2024 and decided to keep the well-known gorilla statue from the previous owner, George’s Lift Trucks. CONNECT WITH US Top executives: John Parsons, Owner & President; Patrick […]
Why Political Pressure on Central Banks Can Raise Your Borrowing Costs
The question of central bank independence came up during a fireside chat on Grounds with Philip Lane, chief economist of the European Central Bank, hosted by economist and Darden professor Frank Warnock.
Stock market today: Indexes hit records after Iran says Hormuz is open
US stocks surged and oil prices plunged after Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz was "completely open," removing a key overhang for markets.
Report: Liverpool interested in move to sign Tottenham Hotspur midfielder
Liverpool monitoring Archie Gray situation closelyLiverpool’s recruitment strategy has long favoured intelligence over impulse, and their reported interest in Archie Gray reflects that philosophy on...
Zohran Mamdani reflects on his first 100 days as NYC mayor, and what else is left to do
Through his first 100 days as mayor of New York City, Zohran Mamdani has focused on “pothole politics” — a blend of high-level legislative wins and intense focus on everyday essential services that keep the city running. The 34-year-old mayor has delivered on progressive campaign promises, from more funding for child care to new taxes on the ultrawealthy. He views his government as a model for how Democrats can deliver on policies that benefit the working class.In this episode of NPR’s Newsmakers, Mamdani sits down with host Leila Fadel at City Hall to discuss his first 100 days in office, his approach to working with President Trump and the message he believes Democrats should deliver during this year’s midterm elections.NPR's Newsmakers is where you'll find NPR's biggest interviews. We post new episodes as soon as they're available -- any day of the week. Follow or watch the show wherever you get podcasts.Newsmakers relies on supporters who value independent journalism and a free press. Join NPR+ today to support our work and get perks from the podcasts you trust. Go to plus.npr.org.
Maryland to chart independent vaccine guidance under new 'Vax Act'
Maryland is preparing for a major shift in how it determines vaccine recommendations and other preventive health guidelines, after Governor Wes Moore signed a n
Maryland to chart independent vaccine guidance under new 'Vax Act'
Maryland is preparing for a major shift in how it determines vaccine recommendations and other preventive health guidelines, after Governor Wes Moore signed a n
Hotline for Pennsylvania farmers sees major drop in calls, texts amid mental health crisis
This story was produced by the State College regional bureau of Spotlight PA, an independent, nonpartisan newsroom dedicated to investigative and public-service...
Report: Shock Move Brewing as Liverpool Target Next Defensive Star
Liverpool Eye Daniel Banjaqui as Right-Back SolutionSearch for Alexander-Arnold Successor IntensifiesCredit to Anfield Watch for revealing Liverpool’s latest transfer thinking, as the club prepares ...
Barcelona’s €30m Question For Man United Forward
Rashford’s Barcelona Future in Doubt as Transfer Reality BitesCredit to Marca for the original reporting, which paints an increasingly uncertain picture around Marcus Rashford and his long term futu...
NFIB small business optimism index falls below 52-year average in March
Small business optimism declined in March as profit trends worsened and uncertainty climbed, according to a survey released Thursday by the National Federation of Independent Business. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.0 points in March to 95.8, dropping below its 52-year average of 98.0 for the first time since April 2025. The NFIB […]
Data highlights gaps in finding in-network mental health coverage
Americans across 43 states enrolled in health plans from the nation’s four largest commercial health insurers face potential disparities in finding in-network coverage for mental health care and substance use disorder treatment relative to physical health care, according to the Mental Health Parity Index released by the Kennedy Forum.
Blackmagic Camera app gets Apple Watch companion
Blackmagic Design, ahead of NAB 2026, updated its Blackmagic Camera app to include a new Apple Watch control option.
Resilient Entrepreneur Program Elevates Local Businesses
Johanna Robinson joined the Resilient Entrepreneur Program (REP) at Cal State San Marcos with a three-ring binder filled with sketches of two kittens inspired by her twin daughters. She wasn't sure if her project would become a children's book, an animated series or something else entirely."I was thrilled to be accepted," Robinson says. “As a...
Missouri Hemp Businesses Ask Governor To Veto Bill That Would 'Eliminate' The Industry
“It would effectively eliminate an entire industry in Missouri—the hemp industry—regardless of any federal change in legislation.” By Rebecca Rivas, Missouri Independenta Gov. Mike Kehoe’s (R) office received 10,000 handwritten letters Tuesday asking him to veto a Missouri bill that would impose a statewide ban on intoxicating hemp products. The letters, gathered in just 10 […]
Mozilla Announces "Thunderbolt" As An Open-Source, Enterprise AI Client
Mozilla today announced 'Thunderbolt' as an open-source AI client built for control and independence
In the Katzmann Lecture, Senator Andy Kim takes aim at political corruption
Last year’s edition of Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, which gauges countries’ perceived resistance to corruption, gave the United States its lowest score since the index’s current scale debuted in 2012. That result likely would not surprise US Senator Andy Kim of New Jersey, who focused on corruption in politics when he delivered the fifth annual Robert A. Katzmann Lecture on April 6. The event honors the career and impact of the late Judge Katzmann of the US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, a professor of practice at NYU Law.
Spectrum Science Appoints Lisa Talbot to Lead Communications Business
/PRNewswire/ -- Spectrum Science, an independent, full-service, strategic platform offering integrated clinical, commercial, and communications services, today...
Spectrum Science Appoints Lisa Talbot to Lead Communications Business
/PRNewswire/ -- Spectrum Science, an independent, full-service, strategic platform offering integrated clinical, commercial, and communications services, today...
Collaboration needed
Illinois Times published an article April 2 entitled “A collaborative effort for downtown,” referring to the push to create a new taxing body to expand the BOS Center and construct a new hotel. I only wish a “collaborative effort” was indeed the case. While I am not an elected official, I am a longtime advocate […]
'Show me the money'
What happens when a former senator, a prior governor, a previous representative, and a political advocate talk about corporate money in politics? The exact scenario played out at the MSU-hosted discussion titled “Money, Transparent Elections and the Montana Experience,” at the end of last week. Audience members experienced a bipartisan glimpse into corporate influence, how it is built, spent on campaigns and challenged by voters. A candid conversation emerged between guest speakers former Montana U.S. Senator Jon Tester, former Attorney General and Governor Marc Racicot, previous state senator and representative Jeff Mangan, and political advocate Michel Beckel. The conversation between the four guests circled back to Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, a landmark 2010 Supreme Court ruling allowing corporations, unions, and associations to spend unlimited amounts of money influencing elections. The decision concluded independent political spending is a form of free speech protected by the First Amendment, directly leading to the rise of massive political action committees and ‘dark money’ in U.S. elections spending. Tester was the first to address the ‘black elephant’ in the room. Responses to moderator questions are edited for clarity and brevity. “We are seeing unbelievable sums of money being put out trying to influence people on how to vote,” Tester said. “Oftentimes the truth goes out the window before the campaigning even starts.”
Small business optimism drops, more owners cautious on spending: NFIB
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index fell 3 points in March to 95.8, falling below the 52-year average of 98.0. NFIB Research Center executive director Holly Wade breaks down the data and what factors are impacting American small business owners, including price pressures, as uncertainty rises.
How I Got My Career in Foreign Policy: Matthias Matthijs | Council on Foreign Relations
Matthias Matthijs’s career has spanned academia and think tanks. He sat down with CFR to discuss the benefits of observing European politics from afar, the importance of remaining open-minded in your career, and conducting dissertation research in London’s House of Lords tea room.
TAX DAY: New Report Highlights Benefits of 20% Small Business Tax Deduction Becoming Permanent in Ohio
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), the nation’s leading small business advocacy organization, released a new report outlining the economic benefits and massive tax savings the 20% Small Business Tax Deduction will bring to the 1.1 million small businesses in Ohio now that it has
PNC Gives Update on Private Business Lender Exposure
That's PNC Financial's exposure to private business lenders, including private-credit funds. The bank said that $7 billion of that figure is in the form of loans to private-credit providers, a focus of jittery investors in recent months. The remainder, $26 billion, is in the form of trade receivabl
English still dominates science, but its share fell from 94% to 85%
In 2023, about 85% of the roughly five million articles indexed in major global databases covering the natural, medical and social sciences were written in English. In 1990, the proportion was considerably ...
Business owners 'spooked' by oil price surge, national survey shows
A monthly national barometer of small business optimism released by the National Federation of Independent Business shows a dip in March.
See how LSU’s coastal environmental science major produces successful graduates
The LSU Olinde Career Center’s outcomes data for last year’s undergraduate class revealed high starting salaries and an increased positive outcome rate for coastal environmental sciences. A positive outcome means a graduate has secured an opportunity such as employment or admission to graduate school within six months of graduating. CES graduates had a positive outcome...
Rep. Thomas Massie puts his Republican 'brand' against Trump's in Kentucky
Massie is touting his independence and trying to turn the president into an afterthought as he faces Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein next month in a tough GOP primary.
At HCA Healthcare, small ideas go big in fight to stop overdoses
From drug take-back events to multimodal post-op pain control, physicians see their innovations take hold to benefit patients and communities.
SBART Press Luncheon: Matteo Williams Receives Phil Womble Ethics in Sports Award
Matteo Burdick and Josephine Grossman are the SBART Athletes of the Week.
Lakers prepare for Rockets playoff series with emphasis on rebounding
Without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves sidelined indefintely, coach JJ Redick says "taking care of the basketball and boxing out. That's the series."
Explore Purdue’s integrated business and engineering major
Nicole Welsh knows that progress is possible when business-minded and engineering-minded people work together.
Some people don’t lose weight with GLP-1s. Evidence is building that the drugs are helping anyway
The majority of people who start taking GLP-1 medicines with the hope of losing weight, the drugs can quiet cravings and help them shed stubborn pounds. But research is also continuing to reveal GLP-1 medicines’ benefits independent of weight loss — even if people gain weight.
GLP-1 medicine improves liver health independent of weight loss, study finds
Researchers at Toronto's Sinai Health have found that semaglutide—the active ingredient in popular weight loss drugs that mimic the gut hormone GLP-1—acts directly on a subset of liver cells to improve ...
Eastern Market hosts All Things Detroit Day, helping small business owners
Sheds 3 and 5 hosted independent entrepreneurs Sunday, allowing them to showcase their businesses for an event called All Things Detroit Day.
Z2 Entertainment Goes With Tixr For Colorado Venues, Including Boulder and Fox Theaters (Exclusive)
Ticketing platfom Tixr has partnered with Colorado independent promoter and venue owner Z2 Entertainment, a deal that includes ticketing at the Fox and
Google, Microsoft, Meta All Tracking You Even When You Opt Out, According to an Independent Audit
“This is the Strait of Hormuz in the data economy. If you want to make a change, this is where you cut it off. Anything short of that is theatrical political posture.”
Safeguarding health care in rural Missouri demands a new approach
Missouri lawmakers are right to treat the collapse of rural health care as an urgent crisis. Nearly half of the state’s remaining rural hospitals are at risk of closure, and many communities already know what it means to lose emergency rooms, labor and delivery services and timely stroke care. In this environment, legislation allowing MU […]
US small business sentiment falls to 11-month low in March
small-business sentiment dropped to an 11-month low in March as a surge in oil prices because of the war in Iran overshadowed the benefits from low taxes, a survey showed. The National Federation of Independent Business said on Tuesday its Small Business Optimism Index dropped 3.
New Rules Hinder Foreign Firms From Moving Supply Chains From China
Multinationals in China are concerned that the regulations could allow authorities to penalize companies and executives for shifting supply chains away from the country.
Advancing Health Together: Progress Report 2025
Explore how Elevance Health works with care providers to deliver more affordable, connected, and high-quality care for the people we serve.
Apple is making AI glasses, report claims
iPhone maker will hope that its high-end design can take on Meta’s Ray-Ban glasses
Poll: Democrats gaining ground, key races tighten in Florida as Donald Trump drags GOP
Independent voters are breaking sharply toward Democrats, a shift pollsters say could reshape Florida’s political map after years of Republican dominance.
Hawaiʻi businesses reminded to file their second quarter annual business reports
The annual report filing period is related to the business entity’s registration date and can be filed at any time during the quarter in which the filing is due; second quarter reports must be filed by midnight June 30.
Stanford HAI 2026 AI Index: AI posts gains in science and medicine while often struggling to read a clock
Stanford HAI’s 2026 AI Index paints a split-screen picture for R&D. In the report’s science chapter, “frontier models outperform human chemists on average on ChemBench,” yet “score below 20% on replication in astrophysics and 33% on Earth observation questions.” In medicine, the report reaches a similarly mixed conclusion, saying AI is transforming clinical care, but…
AIFF to offer 40 film programs, four days of entertainment
Ashland-born filmmaker to screen debut feature film ‘A Simple Machine’ Celebrating its 25th anniversary, the Ashland Independent Film Festival is set to return in late April, bringing in acclaimed filmmakers […]
Hawaiʻi businesses reminded to file their second quarter annual business reports
The annual report filing period is related to the business entity’s registration date and can be filed at any time during the quarter in which the filing is due; second quarter reports must be filed by midnight June 30.
Surfshark Just Dropped a Next-Gen VPN Protocol That Could Be Faster and More Secure Than Other VPN Connections
The new Dausos connection protocol has been independently audited and includes a few key innovations not found in other VPNs.
‘I’m playing the long game’: Journalists are striking out alone and discovering the business is toughest beat of all
News Creators have become preferred sources for younger viewers, but how do they grow and sustain their independent endeavors?
Science Pub: Investigating the Lithium Rush
Lithium has been described as “white gold,” the next oil, or a kind of savior from climate change. Consumers are
Baseball great Phil Garner dies aged 76 after cancer battle
Phil Garner has passed away at the age of 76
What Flutter Entertainment (FLUT)'s Board Shuffle, Buybacks and Quiet Dart Stake Mean For Shareholders
In recent days, Flutter Entertainment plc reported that long-serving independent director Alfred F. Hurley, Jr. will retire at the 2026 AGM, with Nancy Dubuc set to assume the role of Chair of the Compensation and Human Resources Committee, while the company continues executing a multi-billion-dollar share repurchase program. At the same time, billionaire investor Kenneth Dart has quietly built substantial economic exposure to Flutter through total return swaps, even as analysts question...
FULL SHOW: Inside INdiana Business 4/12/26
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Ira Winderman: Wins up, seed similar, season sideways for Heat
MIAMI — A better record. A similar play-in seed. But at least less drama, so there’s that. A year ago, when assessing a 37-45 season that delivered the Heat to the No. 10 and final play-in seed, the thought was of a net gain in escaping a half season of Jimmy Butler drama. Now, when assessing a record assured of finishing on the plus side of .500, the question is if the gain is tangible, ...
Inside Tinder HQ, from a Lego station to roof-deck espresso
Tinder's West Hollywood headquarters has seaweed snacks, protein bars, and beer on tap. For those with a sweet tooth, there's full-size candy bars.
Nintendo's Animated Films Challenge Disney's Box Office Dominance
Nintendo's expansion into theatrical animation, with billion-dollar films and an annual release slate, is challenging Disney's dominance while strategically promoting its gaming hardware and franchises like the successful Switch 2.
Your wishes, your voice: Ochsner doctors encourage families to plan ahead for National Healthcare Decisions Day
Every year on April 16, National Healthcare Decisions Day serves as a reminder that medical emergencies rarely arrive with warning. When they occur, the decisions surrounding treatment often must be
Protecting Taxpayers Means Looking Beyond the Politics of Short-Term Rentals
Santa Barbara is on the verge of making a consequential decision about short-term rentals — but without first answering a basic question: What will it cost?
Anthropic may soon pass OpenAI on this measure of AI business spending
Anthropic has seen a surge in business spending in recent months, according to Ramp's AI index.
Chelsea Star Speaks On Exit From Manchester United
Garnacho, Chelsea Move Signals Reflection After Man United ExitThere is often a moment, quiet and uncomfortable, when a young footballer begins to understand that talent alone does not carry a career....
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Borderlands 4 Nintendo Switch 2 copies apparently spotted in the wild despite the game being put on hold indefinitely
There’s been an interesting development with the Nintendo Switch 2 version of Borderlands 4 as the game has now been spotted at retail. You may originally recall that the port was planned for release last October. However, it was delayed just a few days before release. Then in February, we heard that development had been paused. That brings us to...
LeBron James hits NBA milestone as LA Lakers crush Suns
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Best of Your Hometown Community’s Choice Awards business spotlight: Pracht Law Firm
We’re in the final stretch! Ready to recognize your favorite local businesses? Submit your nominations for Best of Your Hometown Community’s Choice Awards today.
Enzo Fernandez Future Back in Spotlight After Chelsea Peace Talks
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Lansing business owners raise drainage issues after repeated flooding on Kalamazoo Street
Ingham County Drain Commissioner Patrick Lindemann is pushing back on residents’ concerns
What’s at stake as Michigan voters weigh constitutional convention question
Conservatives could try to repeal the state constitution's guarantee of the right to an abortion.
Science finds surprising link between your martial status and risk of cancer
Married people tend to have greater financial stability and stronger social support, which can help them maintain healthier habits and get medical care earlier, researchers noted
Science finds surprising link between your martial status and risk of cancer
Married people tend to have greater financial stability and stronger social support, which can help them maintain healthier habits and get medical care earlier, researchers noted
Politics Friday: High tensions at the Capitol as lawmakers tick down the to-do list
State lawmakers are back from a short break. Friday at noon, a conversation with two lawmakers about the remainder of the session, where it stands and what can get done.
Citizen Science Opportunities in Oregon
Adventure Scientists is currently seeking conservation-minded volunteers who want to contribute their skills and time to citizen science.
A local sports bar and grill is opening doors for inclusion and opportunity
As Autism Awareness Month continues, Wayne’s journey serves as a reminder of the importance of community support and the impact of giving everyone a chance to succeed.
Inflation surged in March as Iran war's energy impact hit consumers
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Robert MacIntyre faces reprimand after giving Masters the middle finger
MacIntyre made a quadruple-bogey-nine on the 15th after finding the water twice in a nightmare round of +8
New YouTube Report Shows How Online Animators Are Reshaping the Entertainment Industry
YouTube has released a new report on how independent animators creating straight-to-audiences content on YouTube are reshaping the industry.
U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index
Small businesses are healthy but cautious in Q1 2026, with inflation back as the No. 1 concern and owners dialing back growth plans.
Ex-Sports Haven Building To Be Demolished
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UCI Health rehires critical care workers it laid off in March
UCI Health has rescinded the layoffs of seven of the 150 workers laid off last month as part of a restructuring of its hospitals across Orange County — and apologized” for the “oversight.”
Avec's Tinder-styled email app allows you to swipe through your inbox
Users can use the in-built voice transcription tool to reply to emails
3L Rachel Sadler Charts Path in Brain Health, Technology, and Policy Through UC Law SF’s Health Law Concentration - UC Law San Francisco (Formerly UC Hastings)
3L Rachel Sadler studies health law and policy at UC Law SF while researching the legal implications of neurotechnology and other emerging tools that may affect human cognition. 3L student Rachel Sadler shares how UC Law SF’s Health Law Concentration prepared her for a career focused on the intersection of brain health, government policy, and technology. Gained a detailed understanding of how U.S. health care is regulated and where policy reform is needed through coursework and research. Interned with state and federal agencies that regulate health care services and worked with a major health care provider’s bioethics department. Plans to pursue a career focused on protecting cognitive liberty and mental privacy as new technologies reshape healthcare. 3L Rachel Sadler: The Health Law Concentration has given me fluency in one of the most complex regulated industries and the tools to become an effective advocate for better health policy. Before coming to law school, I spent a decade teaching and working with teachers and administrators on high school programming for multilingual learners. Healthcare kept emerging as the most powerful driver of student outcomes. I wanted to understand how to make effective policy change in this area and how to use existing law to defend people’s health rights in California. Through the concentration’s coursework, I gained a sophisticated understanding of how U.S. healthcare is regulated. I also learned where the pressure points for reform exist. The courses gave me space to develop what became my central research interest: how law and policy can be built to protect human cognition and healthy brain development, particularly regarding new technologies such as generative AI and neurotechnology. The health law faculty were instrumental in that process, genuinely invested in helping me and other students define and pursue our own intellectual vision. During law school, I interned at the General Counsel’s Office for Region IX of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. I also externed at the California Department of Justice’s Health, Education and Welfare Division. Additionally, I externed at Kaiser Permanente Northern California’s Bioethics Department. Alongside those placements, I conducted extensive independent research on mental privacy and emerging neurotechnology, working closely with Professors Emily Murphy and George Horvath. That research became the throughline of my law school experience and the foundation of my current policy focus. I must also credit Nicole Ozer of the Center for Constitutional Democracy (CCD), whose deep knowledge of California privacy law and the public-interest privacy landscape deeply informed my work. I currently serve a research assistant with the CCD, where I spearhead the development of K-12 educational resources in partnership with law faculty and students. I’ve found UC Law SF to be an ideal place for second-career, nontraditional students. There is a tremendous diversity of life and career experience here, and I felt fully welcomed into the community, despite returning as a student at a different stage of life. I came to law school wanting to promote equity in California’s healthcare system. I am leaving with a sharper and more specific ambition: to build a policy career focused on protecting cognitive liberty and mental privacy from technological intrusion. This is both an urgent and underserved area of law, and I want to be part of defining this landscape going forward. Whether as a practicing attorney or a policy advisor, I plan to work on these issues after law school. I strongly recommend UC Law SF and the Health Law Concentration. When I arrived in law school, I worried the concentration would be narrow and that my non-clinical background would be a disadvantage. The opposite was true. The health law faculty thinks about health expansively, encompassing social determinants of health, structural inequity, and emerging technologies alongside the regulatory mechanics of the industry. The faculty are accessible, intellectually generous, and genuinely invested in students’ development. I found my research vision here, and I deeply appreciate the concentration’s role in this. The Evidence of Success series highlights UC Law SF students as they share how the College’s opportunities equip them with the experience, skills, and confidence to excel in the legal profession.
Iowa convenience store chain reaches national business milestone
An Iowa-based company is being added to a prestigious list this morning. Casey’s General Stores is now on the S&P 500 stock index. The Ankeny-based convenience store chain is only the second Iowa company on the list, along with Principal Financial Group in Des Moines. The S&P 500 encompasses both the New York Stock Exchange […]
New YouTube report shows how online animators are reshaping the entertainment industry
Independent creators on YouTube are redefining the animation landscape as global audiences shift their focus toward original online series. This report explores how a new generation of animators reaches millions of people through digital platforms and cross-language content.
Speedway champion tells of his ride from coma to comeback
Scunthorpe-born Tai Woffinden talks about his recovery from a major crash and his racing future.
City of Independence bans synthetic 7-OH, regulates kratom sold in businesses
The City of Independence voted to ban synthetic 7-OH and regulate its parent product, kratom, at Wednesday night's city council meeting.
Ishbia family taking swing at youth sports facility for vacant Office Depot
(Editor’s Note: Alex Harrison Perry reported this story for Evanston RoundTable, a neighboring independent newsroom. It was shared with The Record as part of an ongoing collaborative effort.) The vacant Office Depot building at 2722 Green Bay Road — just a block south of Wilmette — could become a year-round site for youth sports, as a North Shore family […]
In Search of Health Care Options for Real Estate Agents
Real estate professionals who work as independent contractors often face expensive health care choices, but brokers and associations are finding new ways to expand access and support agents’ financial well-being.
Washington State Ousted This Health Insurance Lookalike. In Oregon, It Carries On.
From one vantage, the story of Zion HealthShare shows Washington to be an overzealous nanny state. From another perspective, Oregon might stand to learn from its consumer-protection-minded neighbor to the north.
2026 Texas Science and Engineering Fair Results
Posts Details/Default Board Post Page - Plano Independent School District
British Actor Sam Buchanan Signs With Buchwald & MGMT Entertainment
EXCLUSIVE: British actor Sam Buchanan has signed with Buchwald and MGMT Entertainment for representation. Buchanan’s credits include the BBC’s Just Act Normal and Angel Studio’s The Wayfinders. On the...
Rumor: 007 First Light delayed indefinitely on Nintendo Switch 2 [update: summer delay]
Original: Rumor has it that the Nintendo Switch 2 version of 007 First Light has been hit with its own delay. 007 First Light was originally planned for release for all platforms on March 27, 2026. IO Interactive later pushed the launch back to May 27, 2026, and last we heard, the new date also applied to Nintendo Switch 2....
Bears seven-round 2026 NFL mock draft: Chicago fills defensive needs, takes All-American with final pick
The Bears figure to be defensive-minded over the first two days of the draft
Executive Summary: A Patients’ Bill of Rights To Lower Health Care Costs
CAP’s plan would limit unjustified premium increases; reduce deductibles by reining in outlier hospital prices; and replace prior authorization with independent, evidence-based clinical review to lower health care costs and increase access to timely care.
Business opposition growing to plan to replace Missouri income tax with sales tax
A business lobbying group is stepping up its opposition to a proposal to replace the Missouri income tax with sales taxes.
Small business sentiment declines as concerns about inflation rise
The quarterly Ipsos/U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index in Q1 2026 is down slightly from Q4 2025