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Netflix and Superheroes Are Having a Rough Stretch on Streaming....
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) I have a quick prediction before we start today’s article: You might see this data in future news articles. Not my specific charts or analysis, but the core trend I’ve been monitoring—Netflix is having a lackluster Q2—will become inescapable. Often, folks want to know “What does the data say?” Well, that’s what it says. I haven’t seen this analysis hit the trades really yet, but I have a feeling some other outlets are going to start making this case soon. Remember, you read it here first. You probably have read about the problems facing superhero films at the box office this weekend. Well, this week, I explore whether superheroes are dying on TV as well! And the data says: definitely maybe! We have a lot to cover in today’s Streaming Ratings Report, which covers the two weeks of 18-May and 25-May. Today, I’m just looking at TV, like Netflix’s disappointing Q2, superhero shows underwhelming, a few TV shows dropping off the charts, The Pitt finally ending its epic run on the viewership charts (and whether “view counts” change its status as one of the biggest shows of all time), all the flops, bombs and misses, and a whole lot more. Tomorrow, I’ve got a great rundown of the film side of things. Let’s dive right in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, Showlabs, TV Time trend data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of May 18th to May 31st, 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Television - Netflix’s Q2 Slump Continues Having analyzed streaming ratings for going on half a decade, I have learned to trust my gut, but I’m always relieved when I can find actual data to back it up. For example, after a string of very popular shows like Stranger Things, Bridgerton, The Lincoln Lawyer and The Night Agent came out, week after week, in January and February, my gut wondered if Netflix had enough new and returning TV shows to sustain them throughout the year. Since then, Netflix’s post-March slate of shows has not impressed me. This week seemed to feature a potential new hit, but then, like a classic Duffer Bros. TV show, there was a twist. I speak of The Boroughs, Netflix’s latest (and last) Duffer Bros. produced show. The pitch is “Stranger Things with older actors”. And it topped the Nielsen charts: With just two weeks of viewership, The Boroughs would have been a top 25 debut show last year: But here’s the twist: Netflix has already cancelled The Boroughs! What happened? Likely a few things. First, the show didn’t do as well globally as it did in the US. As What’s on Netflix showed, it lagged behind several other shows that got cancelled. Second, its completion rate was likely low; after an initial burst of interest, it quickly dropped off on the Samba TV and Luminate charts. Third, the Duffer Bros. left Netflix for Paramount, and that may have factored into Netflix’s decision here. (Though I tend to believe that if a show is doing well, Netflix would have kept greenlighting seasons.) Still, just because I can explain why Netflix may have cancelled this show doesn’t mean I’m justifying it. In particular, as I’ve noted before, Netflix is losing a lot of their bigger shows as they reach their natural ends, and they need to replace those shows. This show had the hallmarks of a big new genre show, and it’s their biggest hit of the last few months (in the US at least), but now it’s done. Netflix’s other show this week—The Four Seasons, the second season of the “hit” show from last year—definitely disappointed. Its sophomore season had about half the viewership of the first, only 12.7 million hours. It also only had a two week run on Samba TV, and its numbers were all down on Luminate too. In other words, even with two successes, the Q2 slump for Netflix looks real: I could add to the list of disappointments: Both Lord of the Files and Man on Fire had short runs on the Nielsen charts. Running Point’s sophomore season also opened to about half its viewership, similar to The Four Seasons. A Good Girl’s Guide to Murder’s second season—see below—didn’t even make any of the three viewership charts I track, unlike the first season. Netflix is absolutely having a dismal second three months of 2026. If this Nielsen data is any indication, and I think it is, I think this will show up in Netflix’s engagement report, and maybe even their financial outcomes. And the rest of June doesn’t look much better. We have two hit shows coming back—Sweet Magnolias, one of their quietest big shows, and Avatar: The Last Airbender, a big hit for them in 2024—but the other big swings are limited series crime thrillers i.e. no future season potential. Like I said above, sometimes when I uncover a juicy nugget like this, other outlets end up writing very similar articles mimicking the data without credit. We’ll see if that happens this time! Share Television - The State of Superhero Shows on Streaming When I first heard the pitch for Spider-Noir—a Sony TV show on Prime Video that binge-released eight episodes first on MGM+ then on Prime Video two days later—I had my doubts. It’s a live-action Spider-Man show set in the 1930s, starring Nicholas Cage, based on a cameo of a character in Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. No, seriously, that’s the pitch. That could either go terrifically well or horribly wrong. Great because, Spider-Man. He’s the biggest superhero we have. I’ve seen tracking numbers that put the new _Spider-Man: Brand New Da_y as the blockbuster of the year and initial pre-sales back that up. And yet this Spider-Noir pitch feels very esoteric. (Also, the eight-episode binge release feels very “Amazon copying Netflix” again.) So what’s the data say? And what does this say about the future of superhero shows?
WATCH: Bill Maher says Vance interview critics wouldn’t be happy unless he ‘punched him in the nose’
Bill Maher dismisses backlash over his JD Vance interview on "Real Time with Bill Maher," saying critics wouldn't be happy unless he punched Vance.
Apple says it is releasing updates early in response to AI cybersecurity concerns
Apple said it is pushing forward a series of software updates that would previously have been bundled with a new version of its iOS operating system, making them available earlier than in previous cycles in response to AI-driven security concerns.
Scientists Slam Trump Rule Change
Dr. Esen Sefik moved from Istanbul to New Haven 20 years ago because she believed the U.S. was the best place to do scientific research. Now, her advisees are wondering whether to stay in their home countries instead. Sefik described the U.S.'s changing research climate on Monday during a press conference about a proposed rule by the Trump administration that would require a political appointee to approve all discretionary federal grants.
Evidence points to potential new LCD screen for Nintendo Switch 2
The Nintendo Switch 2 screen could be getting a revision, based on the latest evidence. On a Chinese resale site, a listing recently appeared for a a new model of the system’s LCD panel. Sharp would apparently behind the updated screen. The current Nintendo Switch 2 features a panel from Innolux. This new screen has a different circuit, connector, and...
Colorado Supreme Court: Redistricting plans for 2028 election cannot proceed under state constitution
The Colorado Supreme Court blocked all attempts at redrawing congressional district boundaries for the 2028 election from reaching the ballot on Monday, concluding each of the proposed ballot measures violated the constitutional single-subject requirement. The court considered five distinct, but related, ballot measures. Three proposals would have redrawn U.S. House of Representatives districts to give […]
Kevin Pollak says Jack Nicholson would mess with Tom Cruise on 'A Few Good Men'
'A Few Good Men' star Kevin Pollak says that Jack Nicholson would often play around and mess with Tom Cruise while they were shooting the Rob Reiner-directed courtroom drama.
Apple Acquires Award-Winning App 'Play'
In February, Apple notified the European Commission that it would be acquiring certain assets from and have the right to hire certain employees from Rabbit 3 Times, the company behind the award-winning app design tool Play. The notification was published on the European Commission's website this week, following a four-month waiting period. Play was a Mac and iPhone app that allowed designers to prototype iPhone app interfaces using Apple's SwiftUI frameworks, and then send them to Xcode.
Serbia's Vucic eyes new political chapter as he steps down from presidency
When Aleksandar Vucic announced that he will step down as president of Serbia, cutting short his mandate and likely triggering early elections, few believed that he would disappear from politics.
Hoopaholic’s Gazette: DM, PK, NCAA, WC & BS
So be true to your school now/ Just like you would to your girl (or guy) OK, maybe the wisdom of Brian Wilson doesn’t have much if anything to do with today’s entry. But I did hear it on the radio today, and the Bard of 60s teen culture was all that and fostered us […]
Apple Plans Wider Color Gamut for Future MacBook Pro, iMac, and iPad Pro
Apple plans to adopt OLED panels capable of displaying a much wider range of colors, according to a new report from research firm TrendForce. The new panels would cover 95% of the BT.2020 color standard, which describes a far broader spectrum of colors than the DCI-P3 standard Apple's screens currently target. In practice, that means deeper, more accurate reds, greens, and blues.
The Latest: Trump says Iran wants a meeting. Tehran says nothing's scheduled
President Donald Trump says Iran requested a meeting that would happen Tuesday in Qatar, but Tehran says nothing's scheduled.
CVC Capital Partners to Buy Ingredients Business Irca From Advent
Irca creates more than 7,000 products and serves customers in more than 100 countries and CVC said it would support the next phase of the company’s growth.
Rocket Lab Buys Satellite Operator Iridium in Bid to Challenge SpaceX
The deal would give Rocket Lab control over a satellite fleet and access to wireless resources it could use to compete with SpaceX.
Comcast says it plans to split into two businesses, NBCUniversal and Sky
Current shareholders would receive shares in both companies under the planned split, Comcast said Monday.
Cheaper AI is better: Soaring bills are reshaping how businesses choose models
Silicon Valley's powerful and pricey AI models have been a necessity for businesses looking to future-proof themselves. But now a growing number of tech CEOs are arguing that cheaper options would be crucial for their wider adoption.
Radford University finalizing plan to build new health sciences center on Roanoke’s Jefferson Street
The new building would house all Radford University Carilion programs, a university spokesperson said.
BT, Verizon to Form International Joint Venture
The London-listed telecommunications operator said the 50:50 joint venture would serve more than 3,000 customers in around 180 countries.
The last, best hope for the Colorado GOP
If the Colorado Republican Party desires to retain any relevancy, let alone wrest back any of the levers of political control in the state, it needs to elect Barb Kirkmeyer in the June 30 primary. To be sure, Kirkmeyer would be a solid candidate for governor in any case, whether or not she shared the […]
Opinion: Bring back respect in politics
No matter your party or political persuasion, it is undeniable that American politics has taken on a tenor of anger and pessimism. This national mood has made American politics atoxic stew of rage, discontentment and despair. Many Americans don’t feel that the reforms they would like to see in their government are possible. These...
Is this World Cup now Europe v South America? Which giants fall today? Day 18 recap
Sunday was the strangest day of this World Cup, in that there was only one match, sandwiched between days with six and three respectively. This was for scheduling reasons: no third-placed sides could have played on Sunday, given that the identity of the eight sides and their precise fixtures had only been decided on Saturday night. It would also have been impossible to organise fixtures between any other winners and runners-up while also giving them a reasonable — and relatively similar — number of days since their final group stage fixture. In the game that did happen, co-hosts Canada...
Bickley: It's hard to root for Suns, Miles Bridges pairing
You knew Suns owner Mat Ishbia would make a move this offseason, but trading for Miles Bridges could risk toppling the franchise's new identity.
Hornets send Miles Bridges to Phoenix Suns, AP source says
Guard Grayson Allen and forward Royce O’Neale would be coming to Charlotte, according to a person familiar with the deal.
Assessing the claim that the U.S. government is abandoning science
The people who do not trust science today would probably like to be able to. And the people who do trust it may simply be unaware of the problems.
Scratching bug bites feels good – but science says don’t do it
You’ve likely heard it since childhood: Don’t scratch that bug bite or rash, you’ll make it worse. But why would something that feels so good be bad?
Rescheduling marijuana would put politics ahead of science
The Drug Enforcement Administration is considering a proposal to move marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III of the Controlled Substances Act, which would recognize all cannabis products as havi…
Rescheduling marijuana would put politics ahead of science
The Drug Enforcement Administration is considering a proposal to move marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III of the Controlled Substances Act, which would recognize all cannabis products as havi…
If USMCA is not renewed, analysts expect uncertainty for businesses
US President Donald Trump has warned he would 'rather not have' the free trade agreement ahead of its July 1 review.
'All INdiana Politics'
U.S. Sen. Todd Young has said that a proposed $300 billion payment to Iran would not be funded by American taxpayers, and that any ceasefire with Iran must be contingent on the dismantlement of its nuclear program, while Indiana Senators Young and Banks have split on a housing bill now awaiting President Trump's signature.
Family visited Water Park Capital of the World; wouldn't do it again
Wisconsin Dells, "Water Park Capital of the World" had many family-friendly activities for our multigenerational travel group, but the cons added up.
UNC, NC State to get millions from sports betting; gambling deductions allowed in budget proposal
Not only would the tax on sports betting operators rise to 23%, but North Carolina would levy taxes on prediction market operators as well under proposals expected to be included in the state budget.
'High-strung' camels race in Australian outback
Camels with "a bit of fire in them" raced in a remote Australian outback town this weekend at an annual event celebrating the desert beasts first imported in the mid-19th century."You would want a little bit of temper, a little bit of fire in them -- a sort of splashy look in the eye," Woodhouse told AFP. "They want to be wary of you a little bit but not, like, aggressive," he added.
Space elevators could one day exist, transporting us off-Earth with the push of a button. Here's how they would work | BBC Sky at Night Magazine
What is a space elevator and how would one work? We look at the science behind building an elevator to take us into space.
2026 World Cup Betting Report: 'USA Is By Far Our Worst Result In The Book'
There's no way around it: The USA making a deep run at the World Cup would be a horrendous result for sportsbooks. Patrick Everson reports.
Gunnar gives back: O's shortstop surprises local kid with specialized cleats
BALTIMORE -- The story of 11-year-old Declan Lefevre’s youth baseball career is inspirational. When Declan was about 4 years old, a doctor noticed his legs were different lengths. And it wasn’t something he would grow out of, either, which is something his parents -- father Jeff Lefevre and mother Nichole
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it's a bad idea
You've likely heard it since childhood: Don't scratch that bug bite or rash, you'll make it worse. But why would something that feels so good be bad?
City of Palms new downtown parking program: How local business react to the change
The Fort Myers City Council recently approved a change impacting parking rates at all three of downtown Fort Myers' parking garages. As it stood, visitors would receive one hour of free parking followed by a hourly rate. Now, the change has made it so visitors are entitled to two free hours followed by a hourly rate. Local business owners and managers said it's a good idea giving visitors more time to bask under the royal palms and indulge in some shopping. But one general manager points out a problem that did not start yesterday, but years prior.
Your health insurer shouldn’t decide your treatment plan. That’s what your doctor (and possibly AI) should be doing.
With a digital health record, clinicians and AI-driven diagnostic tools would be able to see your full health history — and then make better decisions.
Don't break the tech tools small businesses use to compete
Forcing companies to split up their integrated services would increase costs and headaches for businesses like mine, writes Andrea Ramker.
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it’s a bad idea
WASHINGTON (AP) — You’ve likely heard it since childhood: Don’t scratch that bug bite or rash, you’ll make it worse. But why would something that feels so good be bad? A lot of things can cause itc…
World Cup: Reijnders and Ake involved in Netherlands victory
Tijjani Reijnders and Nathan Ake eased past Tunisia in a 3-1 victory to top Group F.The two City stars started brightly for their nation and it wouldn’t be long until the early pressure paid off.Fol...
If a Lyme disease vaccine gets approved, how would it go over? We asked hunters
Drugmakers are working on a potential new shot to prevent the tick-borne illness. How might it fare in the era of vaccine skepticism?
Quantic Dream Developers Strike to Save Star Wars Eclipse, Warning that 115 Layoffs Would Doom the Unfinished Game
Quantic Dream developers are striking to save Star Wars Eclipse, warning that 115 layoffs would leave the unfinished game without a future.
49ers News: Gotta let the Bosa Brothers dream go…
Adam Schefter believes Joey Bosa has played his last down in the NFL“Bosa turns 31 in July. Last year was the first time he appeared in double-digit games since 2021. The 49ers would pursue an edge rusher if Nick or Mykel Williams are behind the 8-ball on their rehab. Some believe Mykel begins the season […]
Exit statement from midfielder baffles Real Madrid fans
Real Madrid confirmed what had been an open secret on Friday, that Dani Ceballos would be leaving. The 29-year-old has been a bit-part player for some time, but continued reports about his exit seemed...
Audio: RFK Jr. urges Libertarian candidate to drop out race to help GOP keep House
OutFront obtains audio of US Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. urging a Libertarian congressional candidate in Iowa to drop out of the race to improve Republicans’ chances of winning - and keep control of the House. Rick Stewart, who had no prior relationship with RFK Jr., tells Erin Burnett it’s “ludicrous” a Trump cabinet official would make such an offer.
We almost had a smartphone in the 90s. Why did it fail?
In the early 90’s, a company called General Magic began working on a portable device that would allow people to check email, make phone calls, even play games. It was basically a smartphone. But it never caught on.On today’s show, a theory about why this device failed. General Magic had generous investors, world-class talent and creative freedom. But is it possible what they needed was constraints?Support:Planet Money+Read: Our book: Planet Money: A Guide to the Economic Forces That Shape Your Life Our weekly longform Planet Money newsletterOur weekly Indicator round-up newsletterFollow: InstagramTikTokYouTubeFacebookThis episode was hosted by Erika Beras and Emma Peaslee. It was produced by Emma Peaslee with help from Sam Yellowhorse Kesler and James Sneed. It was edited by Marianne McCune and fact-checked by Charlotte Isidore. It was engineered by Jimmy Keeley with help from Cena Loffredo. Alex Goldmark is Planet Money’s executive producer.
I Took My 12-Year-Old Dog to See 'Supergirl' and It Completely Changed the Movie for Me
Like many dog owners, I'm fully aware that my dog is the best dog. So when the chance to see the buzzy new 'Supergirl' with my 12-year-old Chihuahua-mix arose, I jumped at the opportunity.I was not prepared for how his presence would affect my review of the film.
Newsom urges a national 'billionaires' tax' while fighting one in California
The governor announced his agenda a day after an influential health care union in California pledged to go forward with a ballot measure that would impose a one-time 5% tax on the assets of billionaires living in the state as of Jan. 1, 2026. Newsom opposes that measure.
Trump threatens 100% tariffs on Europe if countries tax digital services
He added that the new tax would supersede any previously negotiated trade deals
“The Cheaper the Better,” Says Valve About its Steam Machine Pricing, but Don’t Expect a Price Decrease “Any Time Soon”
"The cheaper the better" is Valve's official line for how it would like to price the Steam Machine, but don't expect it to happen soon.
Why JD Vance is downplaying Richard Nixon’s corruption
It’s not every day that you see the would-be frontrunner for a major party’s presidential nomination extolling the virtues of Richard Nixon and downplaying his corruption.
Trump says Iran strike in Strait of Hormuz is a ‘foolish violation’ of agreement
President Donald Trump called Iran’s strike on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz a “foolish violation” of the agreement to end the war with Tehran, but offered little indication the episode would prompt a return to active hostilities.
Vance Downplays Watergate and Compares Himself to Nixon
The vice president said that the scandal that ended Richard Nixon’s presidency would be “like a 12-hour news story” if it happened today and that the “deep state” had taken down Nixon.
Texas school board to vote on required Bible readings in public education
If approved by the Texas State Board of Education, which is controlled by Republicans, the reading list would take effect in 2030.
Warren Buffett Bought A Business For $1.7B ‘Over The Phone Without Ever Meeting The People There’ Using The ‘Most Valuable Skill’ He Learned
Buying a company for $1.7 billion without meeting management sounds like the kind of decision that would keep lawyers busy for months. Warren Buffett did it over the phone. Speaking at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in 2003, Berkshire Hathaway Chair...
ConcernedApe Explains Why He's Shown So Little Of Haunted Chocolatier: 'I Would Rather Serve A Fully Baked Bread'
Eric Barone posted his first blog update in six months yesterday to reassure fans he's still hard at work.
Federal AI security center measure advanced by House Science
A measure that would put into law a key federal office focused on artificial intelligence advanced Thursday out of the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, as part of a slate of AI-focused and data center bills. The committee advanced the bills on a bipartisan basis, but put off potential changes regarding funding levels for […]
2026 NHL Mock Draft
Ahead of tonight’s NHL draft, let’s take a stab at how the first round could play out tonight. First, a moment of silence for our near miss last year – when we tried to predict that Kyle Dubas would go ‘off the board’ with a high pick on a WHL center that no one saw […]
Valve Would "Love to Make the Steam Machine More Affordable" - Just Don't Expect It "Any Time Soon"
If memory prices go down - and that's a big if.
'The Vampire Lestat's Sam Reid on Magnus, Claudia, Sofia, and more
Would Lestat listen to Chappell Roan? Asked and answered.
It's Xbox's turn (again), as console prices keep going up
Microsoft announced a price hike for the Xbox Series consoles today, the third in little over a year. Effective August 1, the Xbox Series S, which launched in 2020 for $300, will cost $500 in the U.S. The Xbox Series X, which launched in 2020 at $500, will go for $800. This follows a round of PlayStation 5 price increases from Sony this spring, and a slow-motion increase for Nintendo’s Switch 2, which will kick in in the U.S. in September. (Mind you, there were also eight video game industry price hikes in six months of 2025). The chart up top shows the sudden ascent of console prices over the past year, a sudden surge in an already unusual hardware generation. Prices had been flat for years, now “up” is the new “flat.” Game console prices used to go down across the length of a console generation, but not this time around. Microsoft’s explanation for the new price hike today: We hoped another price increase would not be necessary, and we have spent the last several months working with suppliers on options. Unfortunately, console storage and memory prices have increased by more than 2.5x and we expect another doubling by the fall of 2027. The entire consumer electronics industry is struggling with the current components crisis, but the effects are particularly hard on consoles. Unlike phones, computers, speakers, and other consumer devices, consoles are typically not sold at a profit, but instead for less than they cost to make. This is an issue well beyond game consoles. Apple announced price hikes on its computers and tablets today as well. Game File is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe Item 2: Brutal Bungie cuts Bungie laid off “most” of its Destiny development team and some developers who worked on Marathon, the newest game from the struggling Sony-owned studio. A WARN notice issued by Sony to Washington State, where Bungie is based, tallied cuts impacting 292 workers, effective next month. That’s strictly for Bungie/Sony jobs in Washington and wouldn’t account for any elsewhere. The video I clipped below shows the redacted list of Bungie cuts filed to Washington State officials. As you’ll see, I had to scroll for a while… In a note emailed to PlayStation workers and published online, PlayStation game studios chief Hermen Hulst offered the following explanation for these latest cuts at Bungie: This is painful news, especially for talented colleagues whose roles have been eliminated. This decision was made only after extensive discussion and careful consideration, and I want to provide some context on how we arrived here. Over the past several months, together with Bungie leadership, we reviewed the studio’s long-term direction, development priorities, resource needs, and role within our broader portfolio strategy. We explored multiple alternatives before concluding that a reduction was necessary to align the studio’s resources with its current priorities and long-term goals. In 2022, Sony bought Bungie for $3.7 billion. The studio’s marquee game, the multiplayer live service shooter Destiny 2 was losing popularity at the time. Its next game Marathon, released earlier this year, has been well-reviewed but had a slow start. Bungie is renowned for making great shooter games, and Destiny fans have mourned the wind-down of Destiny 2. They’ve also expressed bewilderment over reports that Destiny 3 is not, per Bloomberg, immediately in the cards.
JD Vance says Nixon’s Watergate scandal would be ‘12-hour news story’ today
Vice-president declares admiration for 37th president and claims Nixon and Trump targeted by ‘deep state’ forces
Vance, an admirer of Richard Nixon, says Watergate would be 'a 12-hour news story' today
Vice President JD Vance says the Watergate scandal that brought down President Richard Nixon would have been a blip in today’s news cycle
Business Council deliberations continue with four bill drafts
Lawmakers on the Joint Appropriations Committee spent another day diving through the Wyoming Business Council’s dealings. This time, they also reviewed draft bills that would influence how the council operates.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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How should European scientists respond to the US AI kill switch?
Earlier in June, Europe’s worst fears of technological dependence were confirmed when the White House ordered the AI firm Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using its leading models. This kill-switch moment crystalised anxieties in Brussels that the continent, lagging the US on the creation of leading-edge AI models, is now a technological of vassal of Washington. The shock has specific implications for European scientists and universities. Some governments are now worried that with AI being integrated into labs, Donald Trump now has his finger hovering over an off switch for European science. “Having restrictions on this tool, it can have an impact on our own research,” said France’s research minister, Philippe Baptiste, at the VivaTech conference in Paris on June 18.Baptiste, himself a former academic, said that colleagues in mathematics had recently warned him they were now cut off from leading-edge US models, risking their work. “This model is not available anymore now because of the US restriction, and for the first time this had an impact on mathematics,” a field where large language models (LLMs) are making a significant contribution, said Baptiste. So, should European scientists avoid relying on US models in the future? Or would this be a self-harming overreaction? And how is AI being used in science, anyway? What happened?On June 12, it emerged that Washington, citing cybersecurity concerns, had ordered Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using two models: Claude Mythos 5, and Claude Fable 5, a version of Mythos but with guardrails to prevent abuse. Anthropic said Washington’s concerns were overblown. But forced to follow the order, yet with no way to check who was using the models, the company suddenly shut down access for everyone, US citizens included. There’s still no agreement on how to restore broad access. But last week, Bloomberg reported that select US companies, and the US government, still had access to Mythos despite the ban, but the EU’s cybersecurity agency Enisa had been shut out. Class division of researchersIn the longer term, access outside the US should be restored, said Marcel Salathé, co-director of the AI centre at the Federal Polytechnic School of Lausanne (EPFL), because a permanent restriction would be financially ruinous to US AI firms. “Even Trump will eventually budge to economic pressure,” he said.However, US AI firms might end up operating rather like banks, doing due diligence on users of their leading-edge AI models, he went on.European scientists are unlikely to fall foul of such checks, he said. But having a Chinese postgraduate in their lab, or doing a type of research the US disapproved of, could potentially result in access being denied. “It will create a sort of class division of researchers,” he said. More than frontier modelsHowever, successfully deploying AI in science is about far more than just having access to leading LLMs such as Mythos.Instead, many science-specific tools, most famously Alphafold, which predicts protein folding structures, require “far less” computing power to train than frontier models, well within the capabilities of European supercomputers, according to a recent analysis by the Arq Foundation, a Brussel-based AI think tank. Instead, tools such as Alphafold are possible because certain fields, like protein folding, weather prediction or astronomy, have large, clean, standardised datasets that can be used to train predictive models. Rather than compute, “data is the central constraint for AI for science,” the report says. For example, a less powerful physics model trained on CERN’s data “will be more valuable than the best model without certain data,” said Bengüsu Özcan, author of the report. European advantage?Europe could therefore steal a march by using its scientific data and infrastructure to create models US digital giants cannot. “They might actually match or go even beyond what these big [US] companies are doing,” said Özcan.Indeed, some European start-ups hope to create automated testing labs to create the kind of standardised data that could speed up the discovery of new materials. Materials scientists say there’s currently too little data to train models. AI scientistsHowever, even if the bottleneck for AI in science is often data, rather than compute, being at the mercy of the US for LLM access could still become a problem for European scientists. A new class of “AI scientists” based on leading LLMs is also emerging, Özcan’s report says.Unlike domain-specific tools like Alphafold, these try to automate day-to-day scientific work, by providing an overarching tool that coordinates specific models to synthesise existing literature, generate hypotheses or run analysis of data. The problem for Europe, however, is that these tools are sometimes based on US leading models. Google Deepmind’s AI Co-Scientist, for example, is built on Google’s Gemini LLM. Systematic failureThese scientific automation tools are still in their early stages, and still exhibit “systematic failures on scientific tasks,” Özcan’s report says. One of the problems is that the messy, day-to-day process of scientific discovery is largely not documented, meaning LLMs don’t have a good source of data to learn how scientists actually work. Meanwhile, some tasks, such as literature synthesis, don’t typically require access to leading edge models.However, the performance of AI scientific assistants could improve as companies such as Google pour resources into developing them. Rely on US“Unfortunately, for scientific assistants, there is not much we can do right now except rely on US frontier AI,” said Antoine Bosselut, a natural language processing expert based at EPFL. Chinese-built open models, which can run on local computers, lessening the risk of a shutdown, are touted as one alternative to US dependence. There’s also Mistral, once seen as Europe’s main AI hope, but the Paris-based company has seen its recent models fall behind in performance. But the Chinese alternatives are generally not as capable as US frontier AI models, said Bosselut, unless paired with fiddly, custom tools that allows them to act as independent agents. “Most scientists do not have the time,” he said. Don’t jump ship yetAlthough the kill switch moment is seen a warning shot for European scientists, it doesn’t mean labs should abandon US AI tools immediately. “I do not think the right response is simply to abandon US-based models and systems under the banner of sovereignty or independence,” said Mattias Björnmalm, secretary general of the Cesaer university association. “That would be an overreaction.”Related articlesEuropean sovereignty in AI requires ‘ugly trade-offs,’ say experts Robotic lab start-up makes case for €500M EU-funded materials testing facilityAI in science: is it useful? Instead, European researchers need to ask themselves whether they’re becoming dependent on technology that could be turned off in Washington, said Özcan. “They might not see this today, but they should really start asking this question,” she said. European researchers need a plan B, said Salathé. “I would recommend to every researcher, very proactively explore alternatives.”Own toolsIn addition, Björnmalm and others want European research institutions to develop their own scientific AI tools.Instead of signing AI deals with US digital giants, European universities should be using this money to create their own models, which may end up being superior for research, said Sabine Leonelli, an expert on the use of AI in science at the Technical University of Munich. “Universities in Europe seem to be happy to sign commercial contracts with US companies on the assumption [their AI tools] are better,” she said. But US frontier LLMs are typically opaque, and have been developed without independent scientific input, she said. “This is not good enough for science.”Last year, Swiss researchers released Apertus, an LLM designed to be completely transparent, from its development methods to its training data. The idea is that this makes scientific tools built on top of the model far more reproducible than with closed, commercial alternatives.“Europe needs more of this: serious capacity-building that gives researchers, universities and companies credible options,” said Björnmalm.
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