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Butterflies Take Flight in Face of Climate Change and Extreme Weather
In 32 of the countries included in a recent study, at least a quarter of the native butterfly species had moved to new areas.
The Beauty Of Settled Science
Commenters convinced me I made a subtle mis-step in my framing of Psychology Research Is Mostly Fine. My framing emphasized that social priming studies had failed to replicate, but that many other subfields of psychology hadn’t. This naturally led commenters to point to failed replications in other subfields. Although none of these were as bad as social priming, few or none were entirely problem-free. Instead of emphasizing the difference between social priming and other subfields, I should have emphasized the difference between settled science and novel research. Here are some of my favorite psychology findings: The brain is sculpted by reinforcement learning, and a key driver of this learning is a prediction-error-based algorithm located in the nucleus accumbens and implemented through dopamine. Psychedelic drugs exert their effects through 5-HT2A receptors, pointing to a role for these receptors in some sort of construct like the balance between priors and new evidence. Certain cognitive functions are localized to certain brain areas (for example, impulse control to the frontal lobes; linguistic structure to Broca’s area, linguistic meaning to Wernicke’s area. But injure one of these areas, or render a certain function useless (eg a blind person having no more use for their visual cortex), and these mappings can gradually shift - suggesting that neurons are general-purpose compute whose specialization is a contingent fact about convenience and efficiency rather than a necessity. Most personality traits and general capabilities are about 50% genetic and 50% random, with little role for family environment or childhood history, with a few notable exceptions like partisan preference. Recent research complicates this story, but the further you go from this basic picture, the gnarlier the chains of indirect causation you require. Neurons fire together in “brain waves”, whose exact frequency corresponds with the character of consciousness; These divide neurons into natural subpopulations and linked graphs. The gamma rhythm corresponds surprisingly well to items in conscious awareness. GABA receptors seem to be involved in something like relaxation. By hitting different GABA receptors in different ways, you can modulate the exact type of relaxation you produce. Hitting GABA-A directly is too powerful and can cause dangerous levels of sedation, but allosteric modulation of GABA is an incredibly fruitful strategy that underlies drugs from benzos to barbituates to alcohol. If you know your GABA-A subunits, you can target specific subtypes of relaxation; for example, Ambien hits GABA-A1 and induces sleep. Memory divides somewhat fuzzily into bins of immediate-sensory, short-term, and long-term, with separate retrieval and storage functions, and separate systems for declarative vs. procedural learning. These can be harmed selectively, usually by hippocampal injury, so that some patients can remember their life stories but not form new long-term memories, or learn new skills like bike-riding but not new facts. The exact substrate of memory is unclear but seems to involve new synaptic connections between neurons in at least some way. The ability of modern psychology and psychiatry to treat mental illness is real but limited. SSRIs work for half or slightly fewer than half of patients; antipsychotics work with extreme side effects; benzodiazpines work but produce addiction and tolerance in many (not all) people. Most supplements are stuck in Poor Quality Study Replication Crisis Hell, but melatonin and l-theanine stand out as especially promising. Psychotherapy works with moderate effect size, but (with a few exceptions) seems to be more about the relationship with the provider than the details of the therapy itself. Mental hospitalization can sometimes defuse immediate crises but work less well than mental hospitals would like, with some studies showing overall negative effects. Schizophrenia is mostly genetic, but risk also increases with prenatal infection (especially rubella) and obstetric complications; there is suggestive evidence for roles of social stress and drug use (with psychedelics and marijuana making things worse, and nicotine if anything making things better). Bipolar and schizophrenia are so closely linked on a pathophysiological level that it seems like they might be the same disease; on the clinical level, they do seem to follow two separate courses/prognoses but can sometimes surprise clinicians by eg someone who seemed condemned to permanent schizophrenia unexpectedly recovering. The brain’s native reinforcement learning algorithms cash out in the phenomena of classical and operant conditioning; different reinforcement schedules reinforce at different levels, which can be exploited by bad actors to make especially compelling products (eg slot machines). None of these are immune to doubt. A few are speculative; one or two are genuinely unorthodox. But they’re all a step above one p = 0.049 paper that might not replicate. If they get overturned, they’ll be overturned by the same sort of genuine scientific shift that replaced Ptolemy with Copernicus or Lamarck with Darwin, not some sort of sordid discovery about someone entering random numbers into a spreadsheet. In 2008, Eliezer Yudkowsky wrote about The Beauty Of Settled Science: If you only care about scientific issues that are controversial, you will end up with a head stuffed full of garbage. The media thinks that only the cutting edge of science is worth reporting on. How often do you see headlines like “General Relativity still governing planetary orbits” or “Phlogiston theory remains false”? So, by the time anything is solid science, it is no longer a breaking headline. “Newsworthy” science is often based on the thinnest of evidence and wrong half the time—if it were not on the uttermost fringes of the scientific frontier, it would not be breaking news. Scientific controversies are problems so difficult that even people who’ve spent years mastering the field can still fool themselves. That’s what makes for the heated arguments that attract all the media attention. Worse, if you aren’t in the field and part of the game, controversies aren’t even fun. Don’t be embarrassed to read elementary science textbooks, either. If you want to pretend to be sophisticated, go find a play to sneer at. If you just want to have fun, remember that simplicity is at the core of scientific beauty [...] A steady diet of science news is bad for you: You are what you eat, and if you eat only science reporting on fluid situations, without a solid textbook now and then, your brain will turn to liquid. Psychology isn’t centrally the new paper in Annals Of Recently-Breaking News saying that an n=5 study showing that large portion sizes increase support for terrorism. Psychology is centrally ideas like brain waves, GABA receptors, reinforcement learning, twin studies, and connectionism. People who think differently are worrying too much about BREAKING NEWS!!!, and should stop. The key distinction isn’t “recent research in social psychology” vs. “recent research in cognitive/bio/behavioral psychology”, as my essay last week unfortunately implied. It’s recent research in general vs. the deposit of settled science, battle-tested hypotheses, and carefully-earmarked speculation. And part of the reason social priming in particular was such a disaster was that it defied that heuristic, building itself up over hundreds of studies until it approached or even entered the pantheon of settled science - before collapsing (5-HTTLPR was also sort of like this). This isn’t a claim that settled science is always right - Freud was “settled science” for a long time - just that there’s an intuitive distinction between the level of credence you should have in the existence of power posing vs. the existence of Broca’s Area. (I compounded this error by calling the last post “Psychology Research Is Mostly Fine”, which suggested I was talking about the new research rather than the settled science. I actually meant to distinguish between research-psychology-the-field vs. clinical-psychology-aka-therapy, but this framing unintentionally pushed against the point I wanted to make) Some commenters on the previous article understood this point, but challenged its weight. It’s very cool, they said, to know how many neurons are in which brain lobe, but the main way that Psychology affected their lives was through bad clickbait studies used to buttress dumb policies; some p = 0.049 study says that exposure to microaggressions makes minorities’ brains shrivel into raisins, and now their company has to implement punitive DEI or be sued for hazardous work conditions. I won’t dispute this as an accurate description of how the sausage gets made, but it’s worth examining the trains of thought that connect this observation to a campaign against psychology in general: The dumb woke psychology was wrong and bad, and I don’t have good heuristics for distinguishing dumb woke psychology from other psychology, so I’m going to assume it’s all wrong and bad. The dumb woke psychology was wrong and bad; it seems useful to punish/discredit psychology as a whole to assist my campaign against it, so for propaganda purposes I will try to discredit psychology as a whole. To people in the first camp, my response is: come on, your heuristics aren’t that bad. “Microaggressions makes minorities’ brains shrivel up like raisins” is in the woke category; “the hippocampal theta rhythm seems to be associated with both memory and pathfinding, suggesting an unexpected yet surprisingly compelling relationship between the two” is in the not-woke category, don’t play dumb here. To people in the second camp, my response is: deliberately exaggerated propaganda campaigns are bad and this is a confession, not an excuse. Inability to view science through anything but a political lens was what got us into this problem; doubling down on it is a temporary solution but a recipe for permanent disaster. If you pronounce entire fields of science to be acceptable collateral damage in your campaign against bad political actors, you will alienate not just scientists but patients, clinicians, and general lovers of truth. Instead, you can say the thing you mean - that woke partisans shouldn’t try to occupy and exploit the otherwise-noble science of psychology for their own political gain - and wage the same campaign with a halo rather than a comic-book-villain goatee. From the font of oracular wisdom that is Weird Sun Twitter: [ Vessel Of Spirit@VesselOfSpirit i love you all conditionally but i love the good part of you unconditionally. even if it becomes a very small part 2:11 AM · Jan 22, 2015 1 Reply · 5 Reposts · 29 Likes ](https://x.com/VesselOfSpirit/status/558084551772471298) This is how I feel about psychology1, too, but with a touch more optimism. The good part of psychology is enormous, a hoard of endless treasures. You just have to look past the headlines! 1 To play devil’s advocate - should one always be so magnamious? Astrology? Phrenology? These seem different in that their entire orientation was flawed from the start; they didn’t simply fail to find the correct constellation-personality connections, the whole project of searching for connections between constellations and personality was doomed from the start. More difficult might be asking the same question about education research, which is notoriously bad. I don’t know enough about education research to know if there’s some settled science of correct and enlightening results lurking in the background beyond the day-to-day froth of poorly-conducted and politically-motivated studies. I think if it’s 90% bad, 10% good, it’s correct to call it bad as a compact way of communicating a useful truth; I think psychology is better than that, but admit it’s a tough judgment call.
Wolverine's Going To Get His Butt Out In Insomniac's New Game
ESRB's game description reveals all
Marvel's Wolverine ESRB Rating Promises 'a Handful of Sequences' Featuring 'Exposed Buttocks'
Marvel's Wolverine will have gore, intense violence, strong language, and at least a few scenes featuring "a character's exposed buttocks," according to its Entertainment Software Rating Board (ESRB) rating.
Google voice redesign merges AI Mode, Search Live, & Song lookup on Android
The voice search button accessible from the Google bar found on most Android homescreens is getting a big redesign.
Miyamoto reveals the origins of the famous dash mechanic in Super Mario Bros.
According to Mario creator Shigeru Miyamoto, the well-known dash mechanic in Super Mario Bros. came about from a coding bug. Miyamoto shared the origins of how it came to be in an interview. The mechanic has existed since the start of the series. When holding the B button while running, Mario’s speed increase and he can more easily navigate obstacles. ...
NASA’s Curiosity rover finds a mysterious honeycomb landscape on Mars
NASA’s Curiosity rover has entered a Martian valley covered by an astonishing “sea” of tiny polygon-shaped fractures. The honeycomb patterns, each only a few inches wide, stretch across the landscape and even wrap around a nearby 20-foot-tall butte.
iPad Air Could Finally Be Redesigned Next Year
The iPad Air has looked the same since 2020, making it the longest-running design in Apple's tablet lineup. There is a reasonable case that 2027 could be when that comes to an end. Apple last gave the iPad Air a new enclosure in 2020, when the fourth-generation model introduced flat sides, an all-screen front, and Touch ID in the top button. The subsequent M1, M2, M3, and M4 updates were all internal with no design changes. That could change next year.
KY Gov. Andy Beshear & Pete Buttigieg Discuss Politics at Nat'l Urban League Conference
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D), former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (Biden administration), Rev. Al Sharpton, and Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin are among the speakers at the National Urban League Conference in Nashville.
They Worked To Protect Public Health. Now They Want the Public’s Votes.
By Phil Galewitz, Christine Mai-Duc, and Amanda Seitz | KFF Health News A handful of former public health officials are campaigning for top statewide offices across the country, testing whether their experience with covid and other hot-button health issues will appeal to voters in November. The ...
LinkedIn adds a button to report AI-generated 'slop'
LinkedIn is introducing new ways to reduce low-quality AI-generated posts, including a “seems like AI slop” reporting option. It's also replacing its own AI writing feature with a proofreading tool.
LinkedIn Introduces a 'Seems Like AI Slop' Button
Following 404 Media's reporting on how LinkedIn is full of AI slop, the platform is giving users a chance to report it when they see it.
Windows 11 KB5101684 out with a speed boost, direct download links for offline installer (.msu)
Windows 11 KB5101684 is now rolling out with several quality improvements, particularly performance gains. This update is available via Windows Update and installs only when you tap the ‘Download & Install’ button. In addition, Microsoft has posted direct download links for KB5101684 offline installers (.msu). KB5101684 is an optional update and is internally known as […]
Health experts share tips to help Kern County students start the school year healthy
KBAK CBS 29 and KBFX Fox58 are the news leaders for Bakersfield, California and serves surrounding communities including Oildale, Lamont, Shafter, Wasco, Buttonwillow, Maricopa, Tehachapi, Arvin, California City, Delano, McFarland, Ridgecrest and Taft.
Aviate, Android’s answer to Flighty, is now available to download
Aviate, the flight tracking application that aims to be a full rebuttal to iPhone's Flighty tracker, is now officially available on Android.
The Electability Myth and How It Became a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
Is America "ready" for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Pete Buttigieg to be president? How the electability myth becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Splash and Science Day Camp III—new location at Buttonwood
Kids can splash in the stream and learn about local waterways during a summer day camp offered by Buttonwood Nature Center. The Splash & Science day camp will be offered […]
Buttler brilliance as Super Giants thump Phoenix
Jos Buttler produces a masterful 90 from 50 balls as Manchester Super Giants defeat Birmingham Phoenix to maintain their perfect start to The Hundred.
Samsung's new smartwatch is packed with new modes; there are 3 I'm dying to test
Keep track on the tracker
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Movie slumps are the worst. You know when you’re looking through the titles on your streaming services, but nothing sounds quite right? And as you continue to look with little success, you get
Businesses step up as Akawa Butte Fire grows in central Oregon
Akawa Butte Fire grows past 26,000 acres, 3% contained, as shifting winds spur expanded evacuations near Sisters.
Bakersfield police, business owners discuss impact of vandalism on local businesses
KBAK CBS 29 and KBFX Fox58 are the news leaders for Bakersfield, California and serves surrounding communities including Oildale, Lamont, Shafter, Wasco, Buttonwillow, Maricopa, Tehachapi, Arvin, California City, Delano, McFarland, Ridgecrest and Taft.
New psychiatry residency program expands mental health care at Butte County Jail
A new partnership is bringing psychiatry residents into the Butte County Jail, expanding mental health services for inmates while helping train future psychiatr
Palliative Care team manifests dreams of butterbeer and Harry Potter
The Vanderbilt Health Palliative Care team worked magic to make a dream trip possible for a patient with terminal pancreatic cancer.
George Deek’s Story Offers a Rebuttal to Politics of Blame and Hatred
In a sharply argued opinion piece, Felice Friedson […]
Butterfli Fills Transportation Needs
Delilah Lanoix fell into the business of helping people get from point A to point B by chance. At the turn of the millennium, Lanoix and her husband, John
At a Florida fundraiser, Pete Buttigieg stresses the need to ‘restore democracy’
Buttigieg’s message ahead of a potential presidential run has focused on how the nation’s most important institutions need a major course correction to survive.
Meet Joe, Buttercup and Gary, San Francisco’s smallest goat-landscaping business
For months, Joe Corcoran had been staring down the overgrown yard in the back of the building that serves as his barbershop, before inspiration struck.
Boston Celtics - Giannis Antetokounmpo trade scuttlebutt still surfacing weeks later
Details of the Celtics trying to get the Greek Freak to Boston on the cheap are continuing to emerge.
Secret Lair: A Marvelous Mathom Superdrop
Pack your pocket-handkerchief, polish your buttons, and mind the Dragon—The Hobbit comes to Secret Lair on August 17, 2026!
Inside Iowa Politics: How Pete Buttigieg thinks Democrats should show ‘tough’
Former presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg doesn't think Democrats need to emulate President Donald Trump as they campaign before voters.
Winter Sports Club responds to Nordic combined’s removal from Olympics
In a gut-punch to the Steamboat Springs Nordic combined community, the sport has been removed from the Alpes 2030 Winter Olympic games in France. Nordic combined has long been a bread-and-butter sport for the Steamboat...
Microsoft Secure Boot has been broken for most of its existence
Old and forgotten "shims" Microsoft failed to revoke have made Secure Boot bypasses simple.
Google Chrome finally brings an iOS-only feature to Android with new update
A new update for Google Chrome is rolling out to Android devices. It adds a dedicated back button and a new site controls option to Chrome.
Google Chrome 150 for Android adds dedicated back button
The latest version of Google Chrome is widely rolling out today with a dedicated back button and other small interface tweaks.
New Sixer Dean Wade embraces ‘thankless job' on defense
New Sixer Dean Wade knows his bread and butter in the NBA is often a “thankless job.”
An Urgent Threat to the Foundation of Federal Science Funding
New proposed regulations on the use of federal funding could cripple American science by replacing merit-based peer review of research projects with the whims of political appointees and ending support for the publication of research results. An entomologist and former federal government leader urges anyone who supports science to contact policymakers to oppose the proposed rules.
Summer McIntosh breaks longstanding 200-meter butterfly world record at Canadian trials
Summer McIntosh broke the longest-standing individual world record in women's swimming on Sunday night in Montreal.
Things to do in Cincinnati this week, July 6-12
If you're looking for the best events happening in Cincinnati, you're at the right place. Find your next concert, game, festival or family event.
Sword Art Online Unanswered Butterfly Anime Reveals 19-Minute Preview Available Until July 6
The new Sword Art Online anime Unanswered//butterfly anime revealed a 19-minute preview, which will be deleted on July 5 at 23:59 PDT.
Echoes of Aincrad: Sword Art Online
Bandai Namco has released an 18-minute preview of the feature-length promotional animation Sword Art Online: Unanswered//butterfly included with the Echoes of Aincrad: Sword Art Online Ultimate Edi…
GTA Online Event Week: Independence Day Special (July 2nd-8th)
[responsivevoice_button] A new GTA Online Weekly Update has begun and Rockstar are offering Independence Day rewards, massive discounts and more ahead of the new update. Check out everything happe…
Space elevators could one day exist, transporting us off-Earth with the push of a button. Here's how they would work | BBC Sky at Night Magazine
What is a space elevator and how would one work? We look at the science behind building an elevator to take us into space.
Pete Buttigieg says he was the victim of bogus report to child protective services
The high-profile Democrat and potential 2028 presidential contender said he couldn’t see his twins for 24 hours as report was investigated.
Pete Buttigieg was briefly separated from his children after police say he was target of false report
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was the target of an anonymous report that police determined was false and that he says forced him to spend a night away from his four-year-old twins.
The 2x playback button on YouTube and TikTok is peak brainrot
My brain is so rotted from scrolling I can't watch anything on normal speeds.
Why do fireflies glow? It’s more than butt goo.
These luminous beetles use light to flirt and fend off predators.
Democratic socialists’ battleground test: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Pete Buttigieg is back on the campaign trail. And digging into Michael Whatley’s bio in the North Carolina Senate race.
What will the Trump administration’s relationship with Andy Burnham look like?
The popular Labour Party politician could butt heads with the U.S. president
The Google Home Speaker sounds good and looks great
It’s a pretty good speaker! And the red is a winner. But touch controls < buttons.
New GTA 6 Gameplay Footage Shows Incredible Vice City Beach Details
[responsivevoice_button] Rockstar Games have just released a new look at GTA 6. Alongside the GTA 6 pre-order info such as price, 60+ screenshots and more, Rockstar Games have provided fans with a…
AI-Powered Emails Are Influencing Politics on Hot-Button Issues
From California to North Carolina, officials weighing policy changes are being inundated with comments via platforms that tout AI capabilities.
Everything New in iOS 27 Beta 2
Apple released the second beta of iOS 27 today, and as is common with a second beta, there are multiple changes. There are new features and updates to existing features as Apple prepares for a July public beta and a September software launch. Write with Siri There is a new Write with Siri button above the keyboard in Notes, Mail, Messages, and more. It makes it easier to locate the option to use Siri for writing. In the first beta, the Write with Siri tool was only available when selecting text.
New Orleans Summer Entertainment & The Omni Hotel Controversy
This week on The Get Down, John Stanton breaks down the week ahead in New Orleans, including the City Council's final vote on the controversial Omni Hotel redevelopment plan. googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('ad-1492300'); }); Jake Clapp shares some upcoming entertainment picks, including Ilana Glazer's tour stop at the Joy Theater, and we take a look at summer bucket list ideas in The Pearl for making the most of the season in New Orleans.Be sure to grab a copy of our latest issue of Gambit and stay tuned for the latest on all things New Orleans at bestofneworleans.com. .donate-gambit-article-module-container { text-align: center; padding: 10px; /* background-color: #24da6d; */ background-color: rgb(153, 0, 0); margin-bottom: 20px; } .donate-gambit-article-module-title { font-weight: bold; color: #fff; } .donate-gambit-article-module-copy { color: #fff !important; font-size: 16px; } .donate-gambit-article-module-button { background-color: black; width: 50%; border-color: black; font-size: 16px; } .donate-gambit-article-module-button:hover { background-color: black; } @media only screen and (max-width: 600px) { .donate-gambit-article-module-button { font-size: 14px; width: 100%; } .donate-gambit-article-module-copy { font-size: 14px; } } BECOME A GAMBIT MEMBER AND JOIN OUR KREWE TODAY For more than 40 years, Gambit has covered New Orleans, for New Orleans. We’ve stood up to city hall with you, cheered the Saints with you, danced in the streets with you and cried over our collective loss with you. And we’re plannin’ on being here for 40 more. To do that, we need your help. Become a Gambit member today and help us continue our mission SUPPORT GAMBIT
Starmer’s turn at the Podium of Doom sees him depart with good(ish) grace
The PM is another butterfly broken on the wheel of the public gaze, not quite ready to accept his own limitations
‘The Craft, Art and Science of Classical Guitar’ at Buttonwoods
Buttonwoods Museum is presenting a program Tuesday where individuals may learn about the artistry, science and sound of guitar through Juan Oscar Azaret, luthier, engineer, guitarist and physics professor. Led by Azaret of North Andover, the free program is said to link together the craft, art and science of classical guitar as well as demonstrate
Butterfly that barely ages could help unlock longevity secrets
Scientists discovered that Heliconius butterflies have evolved an extraordinary lifespan, living several times longer than closely related species. Even more surprising, some show little sign of physical decline as they age. Their unusual pollen-feeding lifestyle may play a role, but the research suggests deeper evolutionary changes are also helping them stay healthy for longer.
Some butterflies live 25 times longer than their relatives. Scientists are unlocking their secrets
A tropical butterfly from the Heliconius tribe has evolved to live a maximum lifespan of 348 days, nearly 25 times longer than its relatives.
Apple Explains Why watchOS 27 Drops Support for So Many Models
Apple today detailed why five Apple Watch models will miss out on watchOS 27 and the new Siri AI features that come with it. The Apple Watch Series 6, 7, 8, SE 2, and the original Apple Watch Ultra will not receive watchOS 27, and will only get basic security updates going forward. With the update, Apple is effectively dropping three years' worth of device support in a single software update, which is unprecedented for the product line.
These are the best things to do in Brevard this weekend, June 19 to 25
Find your weekend adventure: Butterflies, Sinatra and the Space Shuttle top our list of Brevard's best things to do.
Butte County Public Health launches surveys in part of 'Rural Water Safety Project'
Butte County Public Health has announced the "Rural Water Safety Project," a comprehensive two-year initiative aimed at reviewing and updating the county's wate
Merchants of Doubt and the attacks on Extreme Event Attribution science
Last week, I attended a meeting at Columbia University on attribution science and climate law, hosted by the Sabin Center. It was a fantastic event, bringing together scientists and legal experts working at the intersection of extreme event attribution and climate law. Subscribe For those unfamiliar with it, extreme event attribution attempts to quantify the contribution of climate change to an extreme event. For example, several groups analyzed the impact of climate change on Hurricane Harvey’s enormous rainfall totals over Houston, Texas and they found that climate change increased rainfall by 15 to 38%. One thing that came up again and again was how terrified fossil-fuel interests are of extreme event attribution science. They are acutely aware that this research could land them in court. And losing those cases would leave them legally liable for billions of dollars in climate damages. Because the legal stakes are so high, the blowback has turned ugly. I spoke with several scientists at the meeting who are facing ongoing harassment over their work. This blowback is a coordinated campaign to make the entire field look suspect. The goal is to create the impression that attribution science is too uncertain, too political, or too conflicted to be useful in court or in public policy. The strategy is not based on actual science or evidence of misconduct, but on the generation of doubt. The new Merchants of Doubt We’ve seen this before. In fact, not that long ago: We only have to go back a year to the Department of Energy (DOE) Climate Working Group (CWG) report to see an example of using doubt as the tool to push back against well-established science. This strategy is laid out in an email from a member of the CWG, Dr. Roy Spencer, that was released during litigation over the Climate Working Group process. The key quote is: About all I can hope is that what we write will provide sufficient “reasonable scientific doubt” regarding the science claims in the 2009 TSD [technical support document], based upon almost 2 decades of new science, to call into question the original reasoning for the EPA Administrator’s decision that CO2 presents a threat to human health and welfare. This statement is strong evidence that at least some members of the committee were working to support a particular policy outcome: revoking the Endangerment Finding. The email also explains how they planned to do it: by attempting to generate “reasonable doubt”. This is going to be hard, Spencer implies. Despite falsely claiming that “2 decades of new science” weakens the case, Spencer explicitly acknowledges that the actual peer-reviewed science of climate change overwhelmingly rejects his position: But if the science argument is decided upon by a vote, or by the number of published citations, we lose the science argument. We can go back even further: This CWG email shares unmistakable DNA with the infamous 1969 tobacco memo that declared: “Doubt is our product, since it is the best means of competing with the ‘body of fact’ that exists in the mind of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy.” The tobacco memo also acknowledges the limit of this strategy: Like the CWG, they knew the science was not on their side. Share The new new Merchants of Doubt The people attacking the IPCC chapter on extreme event attribution are the newest iteration of the Merchants of Doubt. Their goal, like all Merchants before them, is to introduce doubt into the process. Because the report is not even out yet, they cannot attack its conclusions. So they are attacking the authors instead. Here is a press release from the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee: In the letter, the Chairmen express concerns about potential conflicts of interest involving members of the Attribution Committee, stating that “publicly available information suggests a troubling pattern” in which committee members are affiliated with nonprofits that support climate accountability lawsuits, “raising the appearance of impropriety and member bias.” To be clear, this is just innuendo. There is no actual evidence of bias. And given the robust process that these reports go through, including multiple lines of peer review, it seems very unlikely that significant bias can survive into the report. When the report comes out, critics will have the opportunity to make legitimate criticisms of the report — if any exist. If none do, however, they’ll still make criticisms, but they’ll be bogus, simply designed to generate doubt. We’ll see. A note to the press: Fix your frame To any journalists reading this: The public debate over extreme event attribution science is not going away. The science is simply too dangerous to fossil-fuel interests for them to stop fighting it. You very well might be assigned to write an article about this area of research in the future. When you do, do not automatically adopt the framing that climate misinformers want you to use. They want you to frame the story around questions like: Are climate scientists trying to put their thumb on the scale to achieve a predetermined, politically motivated result? Are climate scientists improperly letting their politics invade the science of the IPCC? That frame is a trap. Instead, you need to view this through the historical lens of the Merchants of Doubt. How does the ecosystem of doubt operate? Who funds it? What methods do they use to misrepresent science and slime researchers? What scientific results are they trying to keep people from understanding are legitimate? Ultimately, you instead need to focus your article on the generation of doubt as a way to maintain the fossil fuel industry’s social and legal license to keep burning oil, gas, and coal. If you treat the misinformers’ frame as a legitimate, good-faith scientific critique, you are helping them produce doubt. Don’t do it. Don’t be a Merchant of Doubt. Thanks for reading The Climate Brink! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Subscribe other stuff The Staying Curious Substack has an interesting post about the different flavors of climate sensitivity. This is crucial information if you want to understand how scientists think about how much warming the Earth will experience. I’d be grateful if you could hit the like button ❤️ below! It helps more people discover these ideas and lets me know what’s connecting with readers.
Stranger Than Heaven Reinvents Yakuza Combat Around the Shoulder Buttons, Replacing Heat Moves With Stamina-Based Counterattacks
Stranger Than Heaven overhauls Yakuza combat, replacing Heat Moves with a stamina-based counterattack system built around shoulder buttons.
Cote’s Hot Button Top 10: U.S. soccer and New York Knicks fans partying and more
Cote’s Hot Button Top 10: Huge U.S. win opens World Cup, Knicks end NBA title drought, Stanley Cup, UFC at White House, Marlins, U.S. Open week and more
SBA moves to revise 8(a) rules while preserving tribal, ANC eligibility
Details By Brian Edwards Native Contracting June 13, 2026 The U.S. Small Business Administration has proposed changes to its 8(a) Business Development Program that would eliminate race-based presumptions of social disadvantage for individually owned businesses while leaving eligibility standards unchanged for tribally owned enterprises, Alaska Native corporations and other Native entity-owned participants. In both the title and summary of the proposed rule published in the Federal Register, SBA emphasized that the changes only apply to individually owned firms and “do not impact entity-owned firms,” including tribes, Alaska Native corporation, Native Hawaiian organizations and community development corporations. The proposed rule, announced June 11, would require all individual applicants seeking admission to the 8(a) program to submit evidence demonstrating social disadvantage. Membership in a racial or ethnic group alone would no longer establish eligibility, according to the SBA. For Indian Country, the agency said eligibility standards for businesses owned by federally recognized tribes, Alaska Native corporations, Native Hawaiian organizations and community development corporations would remain unchanged. The proposal comes after the Department of Defense reaffirmed that participation by tribes and Alaska Native corporations in the 8(a) program is based on their political status under federal law rather than diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives. In a May 28 letter to Alaska's Republican Sens. Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan, Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment Michael P. Duffey wrote that participation by federally recognized tribes and Alaska Native corporations in federal programs is “grounded in their political status as Native Americans, not DEI initiatives.” The SBA proposal follows a 2023 federal court ruling that found unconstitutional the program's rebuttable presumption that members of certain racial and ethnic groups were socially disadvantaged. SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler said the proposed rule would establish a single standard for individually owned applicants by requiring evidence of social disadvantage. The 8(a) Business Development Program provides participating firms with business development assistance and access to federal set-aside and sole-source contracting opportunities. The program remains a major source of federal contracting revenue for tribal enterprises and Alaska Native corporations. Native-owned firms received $16.1 billion of the program's approximately $26 billion in federal contract awards during fiscal 2024, according to data previously reported by Tribal Business News. The proposal also arrives amid ongoing concerns from Native contractors about SBA administration of the program. In May, the Native American Contractors Association and 53 Native-owned businesses urged SBA to address delays in processing 8(a) applications, saying some reviews had stretched beyond regulatory deadlines and appeared to have stalled since August 2025. The proposed rule is open for public comment through July 13. The Federal Register notice does not reference tribal consultation or indicate whether SBA determined consultation was unnecessary because tribal eligibility standards are unchanged. The SBA has not announced when the proposed rule would take effect. The agency is expected to accept public comments before issuing a final rule.About The AuthorAuthor: Brian EdwardsBrian Edwards is associate publisher and associate editor of Tribal Business News and Native News Online. He is a longtime publisher, editor, business reporter and serial entrepreneur. Subscribe Today!Other Articles by this authorDefense Department reaffirms tribal, ANC eligibility in SBA 8(a) programTribal heritage projects eligible for up to $100K in federal funding through NPS programIHS launches tribal long-term care construction initiative with three projectsIḷisaġvik College acquires site for long-planned Utqiaġvik campus This article is available to paid digital subscribers. Click here to sign in or get access.
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To truly appreciate Mina The Hollower, an extraordinary new throwback of a game, I sent myself to Yacht Club University. That’s not a real institution of higher learning, but it’s the best way I can explain much of the past several weeks as I prepared to play Mina by playing the four biggest game previously made by studio Yacht Club Games. I had expected Mina the Hollower, in development for six years for PC and consoles, to potentially be something special. A demo I tried in March had felt great. Mina the Hollower had an old-school premise: a singular move for its hero that felt so good to control and so rich with possibilities that, in the hands of skilled designers, it could be riffed on in various ways for the length of a full game. Mina’s core maneuver, her hollowing, made her sort of an upside down Super Mario. Nintendo’s hero jumps through the air, discovering power-ups at the apex of his jump by bonking overhead blocks, then defeating enemies by landing on them. Mina essentially jumps into the ground, digging (“hollowing”) into the earth to fetch buried treasure, then burrows for a short distance to emerge on the other side of a wall that hides treasure or an enemy that needs some battering. I wanted to understand how good Yacht Club was at making games. I wanted to see how far they’d come. If Mina was terrific—as I predicted it might be—I wanted to feel how they got there, one button press at a time. On May 6, 21 days before the writing of this review, I checked with Yacht Club Games co-founder and programmer David D’Angelo, to ask which of the studio’s games I should play to truly appreciate the new one’s design. “Hmmm all of them?” he wrote back. “Starting with Shovel Knight definitely is helpful,” he continued, referring to Yacht Club’s first game. He gave me a link to a spreadsheet of over 400 cheat codes that could help me out, if I found the game too tough.1 “Most folks say Specter of Torment is the least difficult and quickest to finish in terms of playtime, and [it] refines much of Shovel Knight,” he told me. “King of Cards is a big celebration of everything we did in [the Shovel Knight compilation] Treasure Trove— might work for you better if you’re a fan of shorter, Mario-style courses. And it’s probably the closest to Mina in terms of polish.” So that was that. Four games, none of which were required. Mina is a whole new game in a whole new world, best I can tell. I’d barely played that first Shovel Knight before and never the other three. I just thought it’d help. It did. It turns out that playing a game studios major works before their latest is very illuminating.
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Semiconductor decoupling. Powell's politics. Industrializing Ogaden. Free trade and the Magna Carta.
Thank you for opening your Chartbook email. Feliks Topolski, 1907-1989 8th Army’s Front, Italy 1944 Semiconductor decoupling Source: FT One thing that Jerome Powell deeply understood is that chairing the Fed under current conditions is a deeply political job. “Powell has successes and mistakes to his name. But he stands out as having thought more carefully about the Fed’s democratic legitimacy than any chair since Paul Volcker,” said Paul Tucker, a former deputy governor at the Bank of England, referring to the Fed chair who successfully fought the great inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s. … While Powell was at the Treasury in the early 1990s, he watched Alan Greenspan build relationships within the government. That convinced Powell he needed to follow the former Fed chair’s lead and spend more time in Congress than his predecessors Yellen and Bernanke. “The accountability for the Fed runs through Congress,” said Claudia Sahm, a former Fed official who is now chief economist at New Century Advisors. “That’s not just about having people on speed dial — it’s answering questions, explaining policy and getting feedback.” Source: FT Ethiopia’s PM Abiy and Nigerian business tycoon, with Chinese engineering, are driving industrialization in Ogaden/Somali region of Ethiopia. - Michael Masri’s reporting for Africa Report if fascinating. Ethiopia has launched a cluster of large industrial schemes in the Somali region, laying foundation stones for a urea plant and an oil refinery in Gode while opening the first two phases of the Ogaden LNG project. Abiy Ahmed framed the push as part of a broader strategy to link energy, agriculture and industry. “These projects embody more than industrial growth,” he said. “They represent our shared responsibility to harness opportunities, strengthen co-operation and promote peace.” The Gode urea plant, backed by Dangote Group and Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH), is designed for 3m tonnes a year. Dangote owns 60%, while EIH holds 40%. Officials say Dangote’s equity totals about $2.5bn, while the state provides land and implementation oversight. Gas from the Calub fields will be piped 108km to the site. Construction is slated for 40 months, with operations targeted for 2028. Ethiopia imports most of its fertiliser, spending more than $1.2bn a year for 1.5m–2m tonnes. Usage was roughly 1.7m tonnes in 2023, almost half of it urea, and demand for 2024–25 is put above 2.4m tonnes. If delivered on time, the Gode plant could cover domestic needs and allow exports to neighbours. Brook Taye, chief executive of EIH, called the venture “a significant milestone in the journey toward industrial self-sufficiency”. Dangote told the groundbreaking crowd that the complex would be integrated with gas supply and a polypropylene unit to support local inputs. He pointed to Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), with a capacity of more than 5,000MW, and noted his group’s cement operations and expansion plans. The Gode refinery is being developed by Golden Concord Group of China. It is designed to process 3.5m tonnes a year of crude and condensate from the Hilala field, with associated storage. Backers say it will ease foreign-exchange pressure from fuel imports and anchor further industrial activity, including a proposed steel smelting site in Dire Dawa. GCL’s chair, Zhu Gongshan, cast the project as “a key step in Ethiopia’s path to energy sovereignty”, underscoring the Beijing–Addis ties. Financing details are still being finalised, but the refinery is central to the government’s energy-security narrative. Source: The Africa Report Dangote’s Ethiopian vision: Dangote began with cement. His crown jewel, Dangote Cement, dominates Nigeria’s market and has 10 operations in other nations in Africa. The formula has been consistent: identify sectors with chronic shortages – cement, fertiliser, sugar – commit massive local investments, and scale up to serve regional demand. Ethiopia was a natural extension of that model. In 2015, Dangote launched the Mugher Cement Plant outside Addis Ababa at a cost of $600m, with an annual capacity of 2.5 million tonnes. The investment gave him a firm foothold in one of Africa’s fastest-growing construction markets. But success came with risks. In May 2018, violent unrest led to the killing of Dangote’s country manager and temporary shutdowns at Mugher. While other investors might have retreated, Dangote doubled down. Today, he is preparing to spend $400m to expand Mugher’s capacity to 5 million tonnes, alongside a new grinding unit near Addis Ababa. Cement is just one market Dangote is targeting. Ethiopia’s enormous state-controlled sugar industry, long plagued by inefficiency and debt, has struggled for years to reform. Its Omo Kuraz Sugar Development Project, touted as one of the continent’s largest initiatives, continues to face delays and mismanagement. … The most ambitious venture of all is the planned fertiliser production complex in Gode, Somali region. Publicised on 28 August 2025, the Dangote Group and Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH) deal plans one of the world’s largest single-site urea manufacturing plants. The project costs an estimated $2.5bn and has an estimated capacity of 3 million metric tonnes annually, a rate that would not only render Ethiopia independent, but even a net exporter of fertiliser. EIH, the state wealth fund of Ethiopia, will hold 40%, while 60% is held by Dangote Group. … For Dangote, Ethiopia is a trifecta: Cement demand is projected to grow by 10% annually, its sugar consumption is growing with rapid urbanisation, and fertiliser demand is all but insatiable, given that farming supports the livelihood of 70% of Ethiopians. Source: The Africa Report The stakes for Abiy are high: For Addis Ababa, the $4bn fertiliser project in Ethiopia’s Somali region is no longer simply a manufacturing investment. It is increasingly being framed as a strategic state project tied to food sovereignty, import substitution and the government’s broader attempt to build economic resilience under mounting fiscal pressure. “Becoming self-sufficient in food is our main agenda,” Abiy says during the visit. “Land is needed; we have it. Water is needed; we have it. Human resources are needed; we have it.” The scale is enormous even by African industrial standards. Once operational, the plant is expected to produce three million metric tonnes of urea annually, potentially making it one of the continent’s largest fertiliser complexes. Ethiopian officials say the project now includes a 110km gas pipeline, a 120MW power plant, a polypropylene packaging facility and a two-million-tonne NPK blending plant. For a government grappling with chronic foreign exchange shortages, ballooning import bills and pressure on agricultural productivity, the numbers matter politically as much as they do economically. The decision to anchor the project in Gode is deliberate. Long viewed as peripheral to Ethiopia’s industrial economy, the Somali region is now being repositioned by the federal government as a future irrigation and agro-industrial corridor. Officials argue that the area’s vast land reserves and access to water could eventually support large-scale commercial farming capable of reshaping Ethiopia’s food economy. The government is simultaneously building housing infrastructure for about 5,000 residents near the plant, while officials project broader industrial expansion along the corridor. Abiy goes further, comparing the long-term revenue potential of the Gode development zone with Ethiopia’s flagship state enterprise. “The investments we are making in this Gode area, combined, will generate high revenue for Ethiopia, at par with Ethiopian Airlines,” he says. Source: The Africa Report Feliks Topolski 1907-1982 Topolski’s Chronicle, ‘Nazi Revival’, Vol. 8, Is. 1-2, 1960 HEY READERS, THANK YOU for opening the Chartbook email. I hope it brightens your day. I enjoy putting out the newsletter, but tbh, what keeps this flow going is the generosity of those readers who clicked the subscription button. Photo by Jakub Dziubak on Unsplash If you are persuaded to click, please consider the annual subscription of $50. It is both better value for you and a much better deal for me, as it involves only one credit card charge. Why feed the payments companies if we don’t have to. Subscribe Grim vision of drone warfare by Sylvie Kaufmann For contributing subscribers only. Subscribe The state of the art in Colbert-studies. Jean-Baptiste Colbert was Louis XIV chief minister from 1661 to 1683 and traditionally seen as an architect of absolutism and mercantilism. Alexander Hamilton later cited him as an inspiration in 1782. Now his legacy is disputed. Daniel Dessert, the chief critic, sees Colbert as the orchestrator not so much of an absolutist state as of an elite cabal. Would be great to have a good English-language review of this important debate. Source: lhistoire Didn’t know that the Magna Carta included free trade provisions Fighting for the right to the beach in Oregon in 1967: Source: Research Gate RAF Station – British and Polish Flags, c. 1940-45, The Ingram Collection Feliks Topolski, 1907-1989 ink and wash If you’ve scrolled this far, you know you want to click: Subscribe
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